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2021-01-20

Nicely written

Stimulus is nice. But here's what Biden really needs to fix the economy<blockquote>刺激是好的。但拜登真正需要的是修复经济</blockquote>

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But here's what Biden really needs to fix the economy<blockquote>刺激是好的。但拜登真正需要的是修复经济</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195038101","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) Joe Biden last week proposed a$1.9 trillionstimulus bill, part of a historic","content":"New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;Joe Biden last week proposed a$1.9 trillionstimulus bill, part of a historically ambitious plan to combat an economic crisis.<blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）乔·拜登上周提出了一项1.9万亿美元的刺激法案，这是应对经济危机的历史性雄心勃勃计划的一部分。</blockquote> But many economists and business leaders agree that no amount of government assistance to individuals and small businesses can fix the economy until the underlying cause of the problems — the Covid-19 pandemic — has been defeated. At best, the combination of the$900 billion plan passed in December, and this plan from the president-elect, can only help the economy to continue to tread water until the pandemic is under control.<blockquote>但许多经济学家和商界领袖一致认为，在问题的根本原因——Covid-19大流行——被击败之前，政府对个人和小企业的再多援助也无法修复经济。充其量，12月通过的9000亿美元计划和当选总统的这一计划相结合，只能帮助经济继续停滞不前，直到疫情得到控制。</blockquote> \"This is a very large package, but it's about helping the economy hang together as well as it can hang together until the end of the pandemic,\" said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.<blockquote>穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示：“这是一个非常大的一揽子计划，但它是为了帮助经济保持在一起，并且能够保持在一起，直到大流行结束。”</blockquote> Zandi and other economists believe that the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, could soar if Biden gets his full package soon after taking office. But job growth will be far more muted.<blockquote>赞迪和其他经济学家认为，如果拜登在上任后不久就获得全部一揽子计划，国内生产总值（衡量国家经济活动的最广泛指标）可能会飙升。但就业增长将更加缓慢。</blockquote> The US economy lost 22 million jobs in March and April and ended the year with another 140,000 net jobs decline. Even with the 12.5 million jobs recovered in between, that left the headcount at US employers down nearly 10 million during the pandemic. Moody's forecast that those jobs won't be fully recovered until 2022, even if Biden gets his full package.<blockquote>美国经济在3月和4月失去了2200万个工作岗位，年底又净减少了14万个工作岗位。即使在此期间恢复了1250万个工作岗位，疫情期间美国雇主的员工人数也减少了近1000万。穆迪预测，即使拜登获得了全部一揽子计划，这些工作岗位也要到2022年才能完全恢复。</blockquote> \"We get a lot growth in GDP up front, but it'll take 18-24 months to get all those jobs back,\" said Zandi. \"A lot of people just can't go back to work until the pandemic is in the rearview mirror.\"<blockquote>赞迪表示：“我们的GDP初步实现了大幅增长，但需要18-24个月才能恢复所有这些就业机会。”“很多人在疫情消失之前无法重返工作岗位。”</blockquote> Solving the underlying problem<blockquote>解决根本问题</blockquote> And unfortunately, the message from public health experts is clear: The&nbsp;pandemic is going to get worse&nbsp;before it gets better.<blockquote>不幸的是，公共卫生专家发出的信息很明确：疫情在好转之前会变得更糟。</blockquote> New cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States are at or near record highs. That could lead to renewed lockdown orders and business closings in many parts of the country, as have beenimposed in other nations, especially with anew, more transmittable version of the virus. The vaccine now being rolled out isn't expected to reach enough of the population to allow the majority of Americans to return to normal life until the summer, at the earliest.<blockquote>美国新增病例、住院和死亡病例均处于或接近历史新高。这可能会导致该国许多地区重新发布封锁令和企业关闭，就像其他国家实施的那样，特别是在出现新的、更具传染性的病毒版本的情况下。目前推出的疫苗预计最早要到夏天才能到达足够多的人群，让大多数美国人恢复正常生活。</blockquote> That could mean a slower-than-hoped-for return to economic activity, such as eating at restaurants and travel. The economy lost jobs in December for the first time since April because ofmassive unemploymentin leisure and hospitality businesses, as well as restaurants and bars. The stimulus might help many businesses and individuals weather the storm, but it won't save all of them from going out of business, according to experts.<blockquote>这可能意味着经济活动的恢复速度慢于预期，例如在餐馆就餐和旅行。由于休闲和酒店业以及餐馆和酒吧的大量失业，12月份经济出现了自4月份以来的首次失业。专家表示，刺激措施可能会帮助许多企业和个人度过难关，但不会让所有企业和个人免于倒闭。</blockquote> \"There's not really much you can do from an economic policy perspective when the pandemic is continuing to rage,\" said Andrew Hunter, senior US economist for Capital Economics. \"Things are looking good for some time later this year, but it depends first of all on getting vaccines rolled out so things can return to normal.\"<blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)美国高级经济学家安德鲁·亨特(Andrew Hunter)表示：“当疫情持续肆虐时，从经济政策的角度来看，你真的无能为力。”“今年晚些时候，情况看起来不错，但这首先取决于疫苗的推出，以便情况能够恢复正常。”</blockquote> Biden has promised tostep up vaccination effortsthat he said have been \"a dismal failure thus far.\" But it's not clear how successful those efforts will be, and how much they could be slowed byresistance by many members of the publicto get vaccinated.<blockquote>拜登承诺加强疫苗接种工作，他说这是“迄今为止令人沮丧的失败”。但尚不清楚这些努力会有多成功，也不清楚许多公众对接种疫苗的抵制会在多大程度上减缓这些努力。</blockquote> \"We're having a slower than expected vaccine rollout, and that is really weighing on the expectations about when we'll return to pre-pandemic life,\" said Ed Moya senior market analyst for Onada.<blockquote>Onada高级市场分析师埃德·莫亚(Ed Moya)表示：“我们的疫苗推出速度慢于预期，这确实影响了我们何时恢复到大流行前生活的预期。”</blockquote> Uncertainty for businesses<blockquote>企业的不确定性</blockquote> And that uncertainty is causing problems for businesses, from retailers to airlines to banks, as they try to make plans, even businesses that have so far done well.<blockquote>这种不确定性正在给企业带来问题，从零售商到航空公司再到银行，因为他们试图制定计划，即使是迄今为止表现良好的企业。</blockquote> \"The rules of the game keep changing. For a business person, that is overwhelming,\" said Zandi. \"They're not going to feel like the coast is clear. That uncertainty will depress ability to go out and expand and grow. They're not going to go out and hire more people because they're not sure what lays ahead in the future. This is going to be a process. I don't think it's like a light switch going on.\"<blockquote>“游戏规则不断变化。对于一个商人来说，这是压倒性的，”赞迪说。“他们不会觉得海岸是安全的。这种不确定性会抑制走出去扩张和增长的能力。他们不会走出去雇佣更多的人，因为他们不确定未来会发生什么。这将是一个过程。我不认为这就像电灯开关一样。”</blockquote> Also preventing the economy from getting a quick boost from the proposed stimulus package is the fact that many businesses have already closed permanently because of the crisis, and thuspermanent job lossesare rising. The money Biden is proposing in direct aid to most US households and expanded and extended unemployment benefits will help many families weather the crisis, but it won't repair all the damage done to the economy during the crisis.<blockquote>许多企业已经因危机而永久关闭，因此永久性失业人数正在上升，这也阻碍了经济从拟议的刺激计划中获得快速提振。拜登提议直接援助大多数美国家庭以及扩大和延长失业救济金的资金将帮助许多家庭度过危机，但它不会修复危机期间对经济造成的所有损害。</blockquote> \"It takes a lot less time to destroy the jobs than it does for the economy to create new jobs,\" said Joel Prakken, chief US economist for IHS Markit, \"I've seen estimates that a third of jobs lost will never come back in their previous form.\"<blockquote>IHS Markit首席美国经济学家乔尔·普拉肯(Joel Prakken)表示：“摧毁就业岗位所需的时间比经济创造新就业岗位所需的时间要少得多。”“我估计，三分之一的就业岗位将永远不会回来。”回到以前的形式。”</blockquote> Will it be enough?<blockquote>够了吗？</blockquote> The money Biden proposed is only slightly less than what was passed under theCARES Act in March, but Biden made clear last week that this is only the first step of what he'll be asking Congress to spend. This first package is more than twice as much as the$787 billion stimulus packagepassed soon after Barack Obama and Biden took office in 2009, in the depths of the Great Recession.<blockquote>拜登提议的资金仅略低于3月份根据Cares法案通过的资金，但拜登上周明确表示，这只是他要求国会支出的第一步。第一个一揽子计划是巴拉克·奥巴马和拜登在2009年大衰退最严重时期上任后不久通过的7870亿美元刺激计划的两倍多。</blockquote> The money in the CARES Act, passed at a time that more 22 million Americans were losing their jobs, did have notable impact on the economy and households' ability to weather the economic crisis. Despite the economic upheaval, the number of individual bankruptcy filings fell 31% in 2020, to the lowest level since 1987, according to analysis by the Equip for the American Bankruptcy Institute.<blockquote>《关爱法案》的通过正值超过2200万美国人失业之际，确实对经济和家庭抵御经济危机的能力产生了显着影响。根据美国破产协会Equip的分析，尽管经济动荡，2020年个人破产申请数量仍下降了31%，降至1987年以来的最低水平。</blockquote> \"Continued government relief programs, moratoriums and lender deferments have helped families and businesses weather the economic challenges over the past year resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic,\" said ABI Executive Director Amy Quackenboss.<blockquote>ABI执行董事艾米·夸肯博斯(Amy Quackenboss)表示：“政府持续的救助计划、暂停和贷款机构延期帮助家庭和企业应对了过去一年因Covid-19大流行而带来的经济挑战。”</blockquote> But that support, as important as it was, didn't end the economic crisis. Even with millions of those on temporary layoffs being called back to work, there remain 10.7 million people looking for jobs who can't find them, 2.2 million more who want jobs but have stopped looking and 6.2 million who are working only part-time even though they want a full-time job. Getting them back to work will take time, even with the stimulus, according to experts.<blockquote>但这种支持尽管很重要，但并没有结束经济危机。即使数百万临时裁员的人被召回工作，仍有1070万人在寻找工作但找不到工作，另有220万人想要工作但已经停止寻找工作，620万人只从事兼职工作。尽管他们想要一份全职工作。专家表示，即使有刺激措施，让他们重返工作岗位也需要时间。</blockquote> And much of that help has run out, or will run out soon. It's not clear how much of the $1.9 trillion that Biden is asking for will be approved by a divided Congress. IHS Markit's Prakken thinks the final amount is likely to be closer to $1 trillion. Moody's is estimating it might be closer to $750 billion.<blockquote>大部分帮助已经用完，或者很快就会用完。目前尚不清楚拜登要求的1.9万亿美元中有多少会得到分裂的国会的批准。IHS Markit的Prakken认为最终金额可能接近1万亿美元。穆迪估计这一数字可能接近7500亿美元。</blockquote> But the key for when the economy is recovered probably depends less on the stimulus than on the state of the pandemic and when life returns to something that feels more normal, for businesses and their customers.<blockquote>但经济何时复苏的关键可能与其说取决于刺激措施，不如说取决于疫情的状况以及企业及其客户的生活何时恢复到更正常的状态。</blockquote> \"Deaths are likely to peak probably sometime late winter/early spring,\" said Prakken. \"It'll probably be sometime in second half of the year that people will be more comfortable going out.\"<blockquote>普拉肯说：“死亡人数可能会在冬末/早春的某个时候达到顶峰。”“人们可能会在今年下半年的某个时候更愿意外出。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stimulus is nice. But here's what Biden really needs to fix the economy<blockquote>刺激是好的。但拜登真正需要的是修复经济</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStimulus is nice. But here's what Biden really needs to fix the economy<blockquote>刺激是好的。但拜登真正需要的是修复经济</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nCNN Business2021-01-20 18:39\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNew York (CNN Business)&nbsp;Joe Biden last week proposed a$1.9 trillionstimulus bill, part of a historically ambitious plan to combat an economic crisis.<blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）乔·拜登上周提出了一项1.9万亿美元的刺激法案，这是应对经济危机的历史性雄心勃勃计划的一部分。</blockquote> But many economists and business leaders agree that no amount of government assistance to individuals and small businesses can fix the economy until the underlying cause of the problems — the Covid-19 pandemic — has been defeated. At best, the combination of the$900 billion plan passed in December, and this plan from the president-elect, can only help the economy to continue to tread water until the pandemic is under control.<blockquote>但许多经济学家和商界领袖一致认为，在问题的根本原因——Covid-19大流行——被击败之前，政府对个人和小企业的再多援助也无法修复经济。充其量，12月通过的9000亿美元计划和当选总统的这一计划相结合，只能帮助经济继续停滞不前，直到疫情得到控制。</blockquote> \"This is a very large package, but it's about helping the economy hang together as well as it can hang together until the end of the pandemic,\" said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.<blockquote>穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示：“这是一个非常大的一揽子计划，但它是为了帮助经济保持在一起，并且能够保持在一起，直到大流行结束。”</blockquote> Zandi and other economists believe that the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, could soar if Biden gets his full package soon after taking office. But job growth will be far more muted.<blockquote>赞迪和其他经济学家认为，如果拜登在上任后不久就获得全部一揽子计划，国内生产总值（衡量国家经济活动的最广泛指标）可能会飙升。但就业增长将更加缓慢。</blockquote> The US economy lost 22 million jobs in March and April and ended the year with another 140,000 net jobs decline. Even with the 12.5 million jobs recovered in between, that left the headcount at US employers down nearly 10 million during the pandemic. Moody's forecast that those jobs won't be fully recovered until 2022, even if Biden gets his full package.<blockquote>美国经济在3月和4月失去了2200万个工作岗位，年底又净减少了14万个工作岗位。即使在此期间恢复了1250万个工作岗位，疫情期间美国雇主的员工人数也减少了近1000万。穆迪预测，即使拜登获得了全部一揽子计划，这些工作岗位也要到2022年才能完全恢复。</blockquote> \"We get a lot growth in GDP up front, but it'll take 18-24 months to get all those jobs back,\" said Zandi. \"A lot of people just can't go back to work until the pandemic is in the rearview mirror.\"<blockquote>赞迪表示：“我们的GDP初步实现了大幅增长，但需要18-24个月才能恢复所有这些就业机会。”“很多人在疫情消失之前无法重返工作岗位。”</blockquote> Solving the underlying problem<blockquote>解决根本问题</blockquote> And unfortunately, the message from public health experts is clear: The&nbsp;pandemic is going to get worse&nbsp;before it gets better.<blockquote>不幸的是，公共卫生专家发出的信息很明确：疫情在好转之前会变得更糟。</blockquote> New cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States are at or near record highs. That could lead to renewed lockdown orders and business closings in many parts of the country, as have beenimposed in other nations, especially with anew, more transmittable version of the virus. The vaccine now being rolled out isn't expected to reach enough of the population to allow the majority of Americans to return to normal life until the summer, at the earliest.<blockquote>美国新增病例、住院和死亡病例均处于或接近历史新高。这可能会导致该国许多地区重新发布封锁令和企业关闭，就像其他国家实施的那样，特别是在出现新的、更具传染性的病毒版本的情况下。目前推出的疫苗预计最早要到夏天才能到达足够多的人群，让大多数美国人恢复正常生活。</blockquote> That could mean a slower-than-hoped-for return to economic activity, such as eating at restaurants and travel. The economy lost jobs in December for the first time since April because ofmassive unemploymentin leisure and hospitality businesses, as well as restaurants and bars. The stimulus might help many businesses and individuals weather the storm, but it won't save all of them from going out of business, according to experts.<blockquote>这可能意味着经济活动的恢复速度慢于预期，例如在餐馆就餐和旅行。由于休闲和酒店业以及餐馆和酒吧的大量失业，12月份经济出现了自4月份以来的首次失业。专家表示，刺激措施可能会帮助许多企业和个人度过难关，但不会让所有企业和个人免于倒闭。</blockquote> \"There's not really much you can do from an economic policy perspective when the pandemic is continuing to rage,\" said Andrew Hunter, senior US economist for Capital Economics. \"Things are looking good for some time later this year, but it depends first of all on getting vaccines rolled out so things can return to normal.\"<blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)美国高级经济学家安德鲁·亨特(Andrew Hunter)表示：“当疫情持续肆虐时，从经济政策的角度来看，你真的无能为力。”“今年晚些时候，情况看起来不错，但这首先取决于疫苗的推出，以便情况能够恢复正常。”</blockquote> Biden has promised tostep up vaccination effortsthat he said have been \"a dismal failure thus far.\" But it's not clear how successful those efforts will be, and how much they could be slowed byresistance by many members of the publicto get vaccinated.<blockquote>拜登承诺加强疫苗接种工作，他说这是“迄今为止令人沮丧的失败”。但尚不清楚这些努力会有多成功，也不清楚许多公众对接种疫苗的抵制会在多大程度上减缓这些努力。</blockquote> \"We're having a slower than expected vaccine rollout, and that is really weighing on the expectations about when we'll return to pre-pandemic life,\" said Ed Moya senior market analyst for Onada.<blockquote>Onada高级市场分析师埃德·莫亚(Ed Moya)表示：“我们的疫苗推出速度慢于预期，这确实影响了我们何时恢复到大流行前生活的预期。”</blockquote> Uncertainty for businesses<blockquote>企业的不确定性</blockquote> And that uncertainty is causing problems for businesses, from retailers to airlines to banks, as they try to make plans, even businesses that have so far done well.<blockquote>这种不确定性正在给企业带来问题，从零售商到航空公司再到银行，因为他们试图制定计划，即使是迄今为止表现良好的企业。</blockquote> \"The rules of the game keep changing. For a business person, that is overwhelming,\" said Zandi. \"They're not going to feel like the coast is clear. That uncertainty will depress ability to go out and expand and grow. They're not going to go out and hire more people because they're not sure what lays ahead in the future. This is going to be a process. I don't think it's like a light switch going on.\"<blockquote>“游戏规则不断变化。对于一个商人来说，这是压倒性的，”赞迪说。“他们不会觉得海岸是安全的。这种不确定性会抑制走出去扩张和增长的能力。他们不会走出去雇佣更多的人，因为他们不确定未来会发生什么。这将是一个过程。我不认为这就像电灯开关一样。”</blockquote> Also preventing the economy from getting a quick boost from the proposed stimulus package is the fact that many businesses have already closed permanently because of the crisis, and thuspermanent job lossesare rising. The money Biden is proposing in direct aid to most US households and expanded and extended unemployment benefits will help many families weather the crisis, but it won't repair all the damage done to the economy during the crisis.<blockquote>许多企业已经因危机而永久关闭，因此永久性失业人数正在上升，这也阻碍了经济从拟议的刺激计划中获得快速提振。拜登提议直接援助大多数美国家庭以及扩大和延长失业救济金的资金将帮助许多家庭度过危机，但它不会修复危机期间对经济造成的所有损害。</blockquote> \"It takes a lot less time to destroy the jobs than it does for the economy to create new jobs,\" said Joel Prakken, chief US economist for IHS Markit, \"I've seen estimates that a third of jobs lost will never come back in their previous form.\"<blockquote>IHS Markit首席美国经济学家乔尔·普拉肯(Joel Prakken)表示：“摧毁就业岗位所需的时间比经济创造新就业岗位所需的时间要少得多。”“我估计，三分之一的就业岗位将永远不会回来。”回到以前的形式。”</blockquote> Will it be enough?<blockquote>够了吗？</blockquote> The money Biden proposed is only slightly less than what was passed under theCARES Act in March, but Biden made clear last week that this is only the first step of what he'll be asking Congress to spend. This first package is more than twice as much as the$787 billion stimulus packagepassed soon after Barack Obama and Biden took office in 2009, in the depths of the Great Recession.<blockquote>拜登提议的资金仅略低于3月份根据Cares法案通过的资金，但拜登上周明确表示，这只是他要求国会支出的第一步。第一个一揽子计划是巴拉克·奥巴马和拜登在2009年大衰退最严重时期上任后不久通过的7870亿美元刺激计划的两倍多。</blockquote> The money in the CARES Act, passed at a time that more 22 million Americans were losing their jobs, did have notable impact on the economy and households' ability to weather the economic crisis. Despite the economic upheaval, the number of individual bankruptcy filings fell 31% in 2020, to the lowest level since 1987, according to analysis by the Equip for the American Bankruptcy Institute.<blockquote>《关爱法案》的通过正值超过2200万美国人失业之际，确实对经济和家庭抵御经济危机的能力产生了显着影响。根据美国破产协会Equip的分析，尽管经济动荡，2020年个人破产申请数量仍下降了31%，降至1987年以来的最低水平。</blockquote> \"Continued government relief programs, moratoriums and lender deferments have helped families and businesses weather the economic challenges over the past year resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic,\" said ABI Executive Director Amy Quackenboss.<blockquote>ABI执行董事艾米·夸肯博斯(Amy Quackenboss)表示：“政府持续的救助计划、暂停和贷款机构延期帮助家庭和企业应对了过去一年因Covid-19大流行而带来的经济挑战。”</blockquote> But that support, as important as it was, didn't end the economic crisis. Even with millions of those on temporary layoffs being called back to work, there remain 10.7 million people looking for jobs who can't find them, 2.2 million more who want jobs but have stopped looking and 6.2 million who are working only part-time even though they want a full-time job. Getting them back to work will take time, even with the stimulus, according to experts.<blockquote>但这种支持尽管很重要，但并没有结束经济危机。即使数百万临时裁员的人被召回工作，仍有1070万人在寻找工作但找不到工作，另有220万人想要工作但已经停止寻找工作，620万人只从事兼职工作。尽管他们想要一份全职工作。专家表示，即使有刺激措施，让他们重返工作岗位也需要时间。</blockquote> And much of that help has run out, or will run out soon. It's not clear how much of the $1.9 trillion that Biden is asking for will be approved by a divided Congress. IHS Markit's Prakken thinks the final amount is likely to be closer to $1 trillion. Moody's is estimating it might be closer to $750 billion.<blockquote>大部分帮助已经用完，或者很快就会用完。目前尚不清楚拜登要求的1.9万亿美元中有多少会得到分裂的国会的批准。IHS Markit的Prakken认为最终金额可能接近1万亿美元。穆迪估计这一数字可能接近7500亿美元。</blockquote> But the key for when the economy is recovered probably depends less on the stimulus than on the state of the pandemic and when life returns to something that feels more normal, for businesses and their customers.<blockquote>但经济何时复苏的关键可能与其说取决于刺激措施，不如说取决于疫情的状况以及企业及其客户的生活何时恢复到更正常的状态。</blockquote> \"Deaths are likely to peak probably sometime late winter/early spring,\" said Prakken. \"It'll probably be sometime in second half of the year that people will be more comfortable going out.\"<blockquote>普拉肯说：“死亡人数可能会在冬末/早春的某个时候达到顶峰。”“人们可能会在今年下半年的某个时候更愿意外出。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/18/economy/us-economy-biden-presidency/index.html\">CNN Business</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/18/economy/us-economy-biden-presidency/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195038101","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) Joe Biden last week proposed a$1.9 trillionstimulus bill, part of a historically ambitious plan to combat an economic crisis.\nBut many economists and business leaders agree that no amount of government assistance to individuals and small businesses can fix the economy until the underlying cause of the problems — the Covid-19 pandemic — has been defeated. At best, the combination of the$900 billion plan passed in December, and this plan from the president-elect, can only help the economy to continue to tread water until the pandemic is under control.\n\"This is a very large package, but it's about helping the economy hang together as well as it can hang together until the end of the pandemic,\" said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.\nZandi and other economists believe that the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, could soar if Biden gets his full package soon after taking office. But job growth will be far more muted.\nThe US economy lost 22 million jobs in March and April and ended the year with another 140,000 net jobs decline. Even with the 12.5 million jobs recovered in between, that left the headcount at US employers down nearly 10 million during the pandemic. Moody's forecast that those jobs won't be fully recovered until 2022, even if Biden gets his full package.\n\"We get a lot growth in GDP up front, but it'll take 18-24 months to get all those jobs back,\" said Zandi. \"A lot of people just can't go back to work until the pandemic is in the rearview mirror.\"\nSolving the underlying problem\nAnd unfortunately, the message from public health experts is clear: The pandemic is going to get worse before it gets better.\nNew cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States are at or near record highs. That could lead to renewed lockdown orders and business closings in many parts of the country, as have beenimposed in other nations, especially with anew, more transmittable version of the virus. The vaccine now being rolled out isn't expected to reach enough of the population to allow the majority of Americans to return to normal life until the summer, at the earliest.\nThat could mean a slower-than-hoped-for return to economic activity, such as eating at restaurants and travel. The economy lost jobs in December for the first time since April because ofmassive unemploymentin leisure and hospitality businesses, as well as restaurants and bars. The stimulus might help many businesses and individuals weather the storm, but it won't save all of them from going out of business, according to experts.\n\"There's not really much you can do from an economic policy perspective when the pandemic is continuing to rage,\" said Andrew Hunter, senior US economist for Capital Economics. \"Things are looking good for some time later this year, but it depends first of all on getting vaccines rolled out so things can return to normal.\"\nBiden has promised tostep up vaccination effortsthat he said have been \"a dismal failure thus far.\" But it's not clear how successful those efforts will be, and how much they could be slowed byresistance by many members of the publicto get vaccinated.\n\"We're having a slower than expected vaccine rollout, and that is really weighing on the expectations about when we'll return to pre-pandemic life,\" said Ed Moya senior market analyst for Onada.\nUncertainty for businesses\nAnd that uncertainty is causing problems for businesses, from retailers to airlines to banks, as they try to make plans, even businesses that have so far done well.\n\"The rules of the game keep changing. For a business person, that is overwhelming,\" said Zandi. \"They're not going to feel like the coast is clear. That uncertainty will depress ability to go out and expand and grow. They're not going to go out and hire more people because they're not sure what lays ahead in the future. This is going to be a process. I don't think it's like a light switch going on.\"\nAlso preventing the economy from getting a quick boost from the proposed stimulus package is the fact that many businesses have already closed permanently because of the crisis, and thuspermanent job lossesare rising. The money Biden is proposing in direct aid to most US households and expanded and extended unemployment benefits will help many families weather the crisis, but it won't repair all the damage done to the economy during the crisis.\n\"It takes a lot less time to destroy the jobs than it does for the economy to create new jobs,\" said Joel Prakken, chief US economist for IHS Markit, \"I've seen estimates that a third of jobs lost will never come back in their previous form.\"\nWill it be enough?\nThe money Biden proposed is only slightly less than what was passed under theCARES Act in March, but Biden made clear last week that this is only the first step of what he'll be asking Congress to spend. This first package is more than twice as much as the$787 billion stimulus packagepassed soon after Barack Obama and Biden took office in 2009, in the depths of the Great Recession.\nThe money in the CARES Act, passed at a time that more 22 million Americans were losing their jobs, did have notable impact on the economy and households' ability to weather the economic crisis. Despite the economic upheaval, the number of individual bankruptcy filings fell 31% in 2020, to the lowest level since 1987, according to analysis by the Equip for the American Bankruptcy Institute.\n\"Continued government relief programs, moratoriums and lender deferments have helped families and businesses weather the economic challenges over the past year resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic,\" said ABI Executive Director Amy Quackenboss.\nBut that support, as important as it was, didn't end the economic crisis. Even with millions of those on temporary layoffs being called back to work, there remain 10.7 million people looking for jobs who can't find them, 2.2 million more who want jobs but have stopped looking and 6.2 million who are working only part-time even though they want a full-time job. Getting them back to work will take time, even with the stimulus, according to experts.\nAnd much of that help has run out, or will run out soon. It's not clear how much of the $1.9 trillion that Biden is asking for will be approved by a divided Congress. IHS Markit's Prakken thinks the final amount is likely to be closer to $1 trillion. Moody's is estimating it might be closer to $750 billion.\nBut the key for when the economy is recovered probably depends less on the stimulus than on the state of the pandemic and when life returns to something that feels more normal, for businesses and their customers.\n\"Deaths are likely to peak probably sometime late winter/early spring,\" said Prakken. \"It'll probably be sometime in second half of the year that people will be more comfortable going out.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1592,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/337641555"}