FFX
2021-03-09
Rebound will be fast and furious. Do you agree? If not, why not?
Roaring ‘20s: How pent-up demand could fuel recovery<blockquote>咆哮的20年代：被压抑的需求如何推动复苏</blockquote>
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If not, why not?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329406977","repostId":1136781183,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136781183","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615264277,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136781183?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-09 12:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Roaring ‘20s: How pent-up demand could fuel recovery<blockquote>咆哮的20年代：被压抑的需求如何推动复苏</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136781183","media":"Capital Group","summary":"With major league baseball’s spring training just around the corner, you may already be daydreaming ","content":"<p>With major league baseball’s spring training just around the corner, you may already be daydreaming about the smell of cut grass and roasted peanuts, hearing the crack of the bat and the roar of the crowd — just to feel normal again.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国职业棒球大联盟（major league baseball）的春训即将到来，你可能已经在幻想割草和烤花生的味道，听到球棒的噼啪声和人群的吼声——只是为了再次感觉正常。</blockquote></p><p> If so, you are not alone — not among fellow Americans weary of the COVID pandemic nor within the context of history. This would not be the first time Americans have lived through a period of austerity brought on by a pandemic that resulted in burgeoning pent-up demand. In 1918, the Spanish Flu and World War I largely curtailed social gatherings and other activities across the country.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，你并不孤单——不是在厌倦了科维德·疫情的美国同胞中，也不是在历史背景下。这并不是美国人第一次经历疫情带来的紧缩时期，疫情导致被压抑的需求激增。1918年，西班牙流感和第一次世界大战在很大程度上减少了全国各地的社交聚会和其他活动。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, the U.S. was a very different place in the early 20th century, but consider that attendance at baseball stadiums in 1918 was half that of the previous year.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，美国在20世纪初是一个非常不同的地方，但想想1918年棒球场的上座率是前一年的一半。</blockquote></p><p> By 1919, however, the pandemic had largely subsided, the war was over and attendance at games soared from 2.8 million in 1918 to 6.5 million in 1919. The decade that followed — the Roaring ‘20s — coincided with the first golden age of the automobile. Americans eager to see the countryside bought nearly 26 million cars and 3 million trucks in the 1920s, according to Automotive News.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到1919年，疫情已经基本消退，战争结束，奥运会的观众人数从1918年的280万飙升至1919年的650万。接下来的十年——咆哮的20年代——恰逢汽车的第一个黄金时代。据《汽车新闻》报道，渴望参观乡村的美国人在20世纪20年代购买了近2600万辆汽车和300万辆卡车。</blockquote></p><p> Could pent-up demand for travel and leisure drive a Roaring ‘20s today?</p><p><blockquote>被压抑的旅行和休闲需求能推动今天咆哮的20年代吗？</blockquote></p><p> “I think the quick introduction of vaccines is a major game changer, even with all the growing pains we are seeing in terms of distribution,” says equity portfolio manager Lisa Thompson. “A travel recovery is coming, and I think it can happen relatively quickly. Everybody is eager to go on vacation or to just get out and do stuff. The question is whether the recovery has legs. I think we will have to see how the vaccine rollout evolves, among other things.”</p><p><blockquote>股票投资组合经理丽莎·汤普森(Lisa Thompson)表示：“我认为疫苗的快速推出是一个重大的游戏规则改变者，尽管我们在分销方面看到了所有成长的烦恼。”“旅行复苏即将到来，我认为这可能会相对较快地发生。每个人都渴望去度假或只是出去做一些事情。问题是复苏是否持续。我认为我们将不得不看看疫苗的推出如何演变等。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ready, willing — and able — to spend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>准备好、愿意并且有能力花钱</b></blockquote></p><p> Indeed, cabin fever appears to have taken hold of consumers everywhere. There are signs that Americans are prepared to act: Savings rates have soared since the start of the pandemic, and though they have slowed a bit in recent months they remain relatively high.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，幽居病似乎已经席卷了世界各地的消费者。有迹象表明美国人准备采取行动：自大流行开始以来，储蓄率飙升，尽管近几个月有所放缓，但仍相对较高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0902a5a997d2660913098a5a3551b0\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"407\">“Once there’s an all-clear, I expect the desire to travel plus the ability for many consumers to spend means we could see a powerful recovery, even if it takes a few years,” adds Thompson, who has spent more than 30 years as a professional investor.</p><p><blockquote>“一旦解除警报，我预计旅行的愿望加上许多消费者的消费能力意味着我们可能会看到强劲的复苏，即使需要几年时间，”已经工作了30多年的汤普森补充道。专业投资者。</blockquote></p><p> “This crisis is much different than the global financial crisis in 2008 or any of the other crises I’ve seen in my career. Today, looser fiscal policy, looser monetary policy, a very strong banking system and high personal savings rates could help drive a very sharp pickup in demand.”</p><p><blockquote>“这场危机与2008年的全球金融危机或我职业生涯中见过的任何其他危机都有很大不同。如今，更宽松的财政政策、更宽松的货币政策、非常强大的银行体系和高个人储蓄率可能有助于推动需求大幅回升。”</blockquote></p><p> These conditions not only can benefit the travel and leisure industries but also the broadereconomy. To be sure, there will probably be hiccups along the way, and some areas will likely recover more quickly than others.</p><p><blockquote>这些条件不仅有利于旅游和休闲行业，也有利于更广泛的经济。可以肯定的是，一路上可能会出现一些问题，一些地区可能会比其他地区恢复得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Passenger loyalty: A tailwind for cruise lines</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客忠诚度：邮轮公司的顺风车</b></blockquote></p><p> Cruise ships became the epicenter of the COVID crisis in February 2020, when 3,700 people were quarantined aboard the Diamond Princess after a shipboard outbreak. At the time, the ship accounted for half of all known cases outside mainland China.</p><p><blockquote>2020年2月，游轮成为COVID危机的中心，当时船上爆发疫情后，钻石公主号上有3,700人被隔离。当时，该船占中国大陆以外所有已知病例的一半。</blockquote></p><p> “This industry has gotten so much negative media, yet people are still booking cruises for 2021 and 2022 at prices higher than they were in 2019,” says equity analyst Todd Saligman, who covers cruise lines and U.S. and European airlines. “That’s pretty indicative of the demand. There is a loyalty and enthusiasm among cruisers that people who don’t cruise may fail to appreciate, and that loyalty has persisted through the crisis.”</p><p><blockquote>“这个行业受到了如此多的负面媒体报道，但人们仍然以高于2019年的价格预订2021年和2022年的邮轮，”负责邮轮公司以及美国和欧洲航空公司业务的股票分析师托德·萨利格曼(Todd Saligman)表示。“这很好地表明了需求。巡洋舰中存在着一种忠诚度和热情，而不巡洋舰的人可能无法体会到，而且这种忠诚度在危机期间一直存在。”</blockquote></p><p> In fact, more than 70% of respondents to an industry survey said they will cruise again.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，超过70%的行业调查受访者表示他们将再次乘坐游轮。</blockquote></p><p> Loyal customers can keep cruise industry afloat</p><p><blockquote>忠诚的客户可以维持邮轮业的发展</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43a53407adb55957b5a34953e08768be\" tg-width=\"702\" tg-height=\"442\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> While cruising has resumed in Europe, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control imposed a “no sail” order that has not yet been lifted in North America.</p><p><blockquote>在欧洲恢复巡航的同时，美国疾病控制中心实施了“禁止航行”的命令，该命令在北美尚未解除。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s not clear when the ships will set sail again, but I believe they will be cruising near full utilization quicker than many people expect,” Saligman says.</p><p><blockquote>“目前尚不清楚这些船只何时会再次起航，但我相信它们将比许多人预期的更快地接近完全利用，”萨利格曼说。</blockquote></p><p> Although cruise stocks have rebounded from their March lows, Saligman believes select cruise lines continue to represent opportunity for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管邮轮股已从3月份的低点反弹，但萨利格曼认为，精选邮轮公司继续为长期投资者带来机会。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, with intense focus on healthy sailing practices, “There’s a case to be made that they could one day be considered among the cleanest places on earth to vacation,” says equity portfolio manager Chris Buchbinder.</p><p><blockquote>此外，股票投资组合经理克里斯·布赫宾德(Chris Buchbinder)表示，随着对健康航海实践的高度关注，“有理由证明，有一天它们可能会被视为地球上最干净的度假场所之一”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vacation plans up in the air</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假期计划悬而未决</b></blockquote></p><p> As was the case in the cruise industry, global air travel was down an estimated 66% in 2020, about 20 times worse than the previous record. Within the U.S., which is more dependent on business travel, the devastation was worse: Air travel declined as much as 95% in the early months of the crisis.</p><p><blockquote>与邮轮业的情况一样，2020年全球航空旅行预计下降66%，比之前的记录差约20倍。在更依赖商务旅行的美国，灾难更加严重：在危机的最初几个月，航空旅行下降了95%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The rollout of the vaccines and prior experience gives Saligman confidence that demand will bounce back. “I believe it will happen quickly as the vaccine rolls out,” he says. “We also saw this after the September 11 attacks. A lot of people thought consumers would never fly again, and traffic recovered quickly.”</p><p><blockquote>疫苗的推出和之前的经验让萨利格曼相信需求将会反弹。“我相信随着疫苗的推出，这将很快发生，”他说。“我们在9月11日袭击后也看到了这一点。很多人认为消费者再也不会坐飞机了，但交通很快就恢复了。”</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, in China, where the virus is largely under control and the economy has rebounded, domestic air travel has nearly returned to pre-COVID levels.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，在中国，病毒已基本得到控制，经济也已反弹，国内航空旅行几乎已恢复到新冠疫情爆发前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Air travel in China has soared back. Will the U.S. soon follow?</p><p><blockquote>中国的航空旅行猛增。美国会很快效仿吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5e4e3bf8e7f8c037aba59d333be4710\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"386\"><b>The ripple effect</b></p><p><blockquote><b>涟漪效应</b></blockquote></p><p> A revival in travel demand can also have a powerful ripple effect, creating the need for a range of goods and services and helping drive job growth across a variety of industries. Among these are aircraft manufacturers, jet engine makers, hotels, casinos and restaurants — all of which were devastated by the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>旅行需求的复苏也会产生强大的连锁反应，创造对一系列商品和服务的需求，并有助于推动各个行业的就业增长。其中包括飞机制造商、喷气发动机制造商、酒店、赌场和餐馆——所有这些都被疫情摧毁了。</blockquote></p><p> Consider aircraft engine makers, which operate a recurring revenue business model. Companies like Safran and General Electric build the engines and sell them at a modest profit, but the engines must be serviced regularly, and the engine makers can generate a great deal of revenue from the service contracts.</p><p><blockquote>以飞机发动机制造商为例，它们采用经常性收入商业模式。赛峰集团和通用电气等公司制造发动机并以适度的利润出售，但发动机必须定期维修，发动机制造商可以从服务合同中获得大量收入。</blockquote></p><p> “They're not making any money this year, because airplanes are grounded, but as air travel resumes, those manufacturers will potentially see their cash flows rebound,” Buchbinder says.</p><p><blockquote>布赫宾德说：“由于飞机停飞，他们今年没有赚到任何钱，但随着航空旅行的恢复，这些制造商的现金流可能会反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> Unlike other sectors of the economy during COVID, aircraft engine makers are not going to see digital disruption upend their business. “After all,” Buchbinder adds, “there are no digital aircraft engines.”</p><p><blockquote>与新冠疫情期间的其他经济部门不同，飞机发动机制造商不会看到数字化颠覆他们的业务。“毕竟，”布赫宾德补充道，“没有数字飞机发动机。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Markets tend to anticipate recoveries</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场倾向于预期复苏</b></blockquote></p><p> Markets often anticipate recoveries in the underlying economy, so it’s important to recognize underlying trends early. Consider the global financial crisis, a period when the housing and automobile industries were severely beaten down. By 2012 it became clear that demand was building, thanks to changing demographics and an aging auto fleet. In both industries, a full recovery took several more years, but a rebound in auto- and housing-related stocks anticipated the recovery in demand and earnings. From February 2009 through December 2010, auto sales fell 6% while auto stock returns advanced 496%.</p><p><blockquote>市场通常预期基础经济会复苏，因此尽早认识到基础趋势非常重要。以全球金融危机为例，当时房地产和汽车行业遭受重创。到2012年，由于人口结构的变化和车队的老化，需求显然正在增加。在这两个行业，全面复苏还需要几年时间，但汽车和房地产相关股票的反弹预示着需求和盈利的复苏。从2009年2月到2010年12月，汽车销量下降了6%，而汽车股票回报率却上涨了496%。</blockquote></p><p> Auto stocks rebounded ahead of sales after the global financial crisis</p><p><blockquote>全球金融危机后汽车股先于销售反弹</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c4fdd2f1cb916356663c0570548d7d1\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"457\">More recently, since the introduction of the vaccines, shares of companies across a number of travel-related industries have registered strong gains. Select companies likely have room to run, Buchbinder says.</p><p><blockquote>最近，自疫苗推出以来，许多旅游相关行业公司的股价都出现了强劲上涨。布赫宾德表示，部分公司可能有经营空间。</blockquote></p><p> “The market often runs ahead of the actual recovery in earnings,” he says. “I think a year from now we will be in a very different environment where demand and earnings for some of these companies will begin to recover in a more meaningful and sustained way. Our job as investors is to identify those companies that stand to benefit most from the changing environment.”</p><p><blockquote>“市场往往先于盈利的实际复苏，”他说。“我认为一年后，我们将处于一个非常不同的环境中，其中一些公司的需求和盈利将开始以更有意义和持续的方式复苏。作为投资者，我们的工作是确定那些最有可能受益的公司从不断变化的环境中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Maintaining a balance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>保持平衡</b></blockquote></p><p> Students of history can look to many examples of past crises and declines that were followed by powerful recoveries thanks in part to pent-up consumer demand. Examples include the travel sector after 9/11 and the housing and auto industries following the end of the great financial crisis in 2008–2009.</p><p><blockquote>历史专业的学生可以看到许多过去危机和衰退的例子，这些危机和衰退随后强劲复苏，部分原因是被压抑的消费者需求。例子包括9/11后的旅游业以及2008-2009年金融危机结束后的房地产和汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> As long-term investors, Capital Group’s investment professionals seek to identify trends early enough to select the companies that stand to benefit from these dynamics. For investors and their advisors, it is important to make sure portfolios are balanced with exposure not only to growth strategies but also to strategies focused on more value-oriented companies, like many of the travel-related stocks.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，Capital Group的投资专业人士寻求尽早识别趋势，以选择能够从这些动态中受益的公司。对于投资者及其顾问来说，重要的是要确保投资组合平衡，不仅投资于增长策略，还投资于专注于更注重价值的公司的策略，例如许多与旅游相关的股票。</blockquote></p><p> A review of more than 4,000 portfolios byCapital Group’s Portfolio & Analytics teamfound that investors significantly reduced allocations to value equities over the last three years. It may be time to rebalance.</p><p><blockquote>Capital Group的投资组合与分析团队对4,000多个投资组合进行了审查，发现投资者在过去三年中大幅减少了对价值股票的配置。也许是时候重新平衡了。</blockquote></p><p> Returns for leading growth companies have continued to be strong, for good reason. But it may be shortsighted for investors to become seduced by the runaway growth stories, considering that many of the beaten down stocks in travel and other sectors have attractive valuations. And recently there have been some early signs that the market rally may be broadening as many of these stocks have posted meaningful gains.</p><p><blockquote>领先成长型公司的回报持续强劲，这是有充分理由的。但考虑到旅游和其他行业许多遭受重创的股票估值颇具吸引力，投资者被失控的增长故事所诱惑可能是短视的。最近有一些早期迹象表明，市场涨势可能正在扩大，因为其中许多股票都出现了有意义的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have scaled back their exposure to value funds</p><p><blockquote>投资者缩减了对价值基金的投资</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4976193700784d30c3ec9bb7db82806\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"375\">“We’ve just been through a market downturn and recovery where the great secular growth companies led during the decline and on the way back up,” Buchbinder says. “That is a historically unusual pattern. As the vaccines roll out and the recovery broadens we will begin to see companies in the travel industry, or perhaps energy or financials, all of which had been very hard hit during the downturn, participate in the recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>布赫宾德表示：“我们刚刚经历了市场低迷和复苏，伟大的长期增长公司在下跌和回升过程中处于领先地位。”“这是一种历史上不寻常的模式。随着疫苗的推出和复苏的扩大，我们将开始看到旅游业、能源或金融行业的公司参与复苏，所有这些行业在经济低迷期间都受到了非常严重的打击。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1615210994562","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roaring ‘20s: How pent-up demand could fuel recovery<blockquote>咆哮的20年代：被压抑的需求如何推动复苏</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoaring ‘20s: How pent-up demand could fuel recovery<blockquote>咆哮的20年代：被压抑的需求如何推动复苏</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Capital Group</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-09 12:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With major league baseball’s spring training just around the corner, you may already be daydreaming about the smell of cut grass and roasted peanuts, hearing the crack of the bat and the roar of the crowd — just to feel normal again.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国职业棒球大联盟（major league baseball）的春训即将到来，你可能已经在幻想割草和烤花生的味道，听到球棒的噼啪声和人群的吼声——只是为了再次感觉正常。</blockquote></p><p> If so, you are not alone — not among fellow Americans weary of the COVID pandemic nor within the context of history. This would not be the first time Americans have lived through a period of austerity brought on by a pandemic that resulted in burgeoning pent-up demand. In 1918, the Spanish Flu and World War I largely curtailed social gatherings and other activities across the country.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，你并不孤单——不是在厌倦了科维德·疫情的美国同胞中，也不是在历史背景下。这并不是美国人第一次经历疫情带来的紧缩时期，疫情导致被压抑的需求激增。1918年，西班牙流感和第一次世界大战在很大程度上减少了全国各地的社交聚会和其他活动。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, the U.S. was a very different place in the early 20th century, but consider that attendance at baseball stadiums in 1918 was half that of the previous year.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，美国在20世纪初是一个非常不同的地方，但想想1918年棒球场的上座率是前一年的一半。</blockquote></p><p> By 1919, however, the pandemic had largely subsided, the war was over and attendance at games soared from 2.8 million in 1918 to 6.5 million in 1919. The decade that followed — the Roaring ‘20s — coincided with the first golden age of the automobile. Americans eager to see the countryside bought nearly 26 million cars and 3 million trucks in the 1920s, according to Automotive News.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到1919年，疫情已经基本消退，战争结束，奥运会的观众人数从1918年的280万飙升至1919年的650万。接下来的十年——咆哮的20年代——恰逢汽车的第一个黄金时代。据《汽车新闻》报道，渴望参观乡村的美国人在20世纪20年代购买了近2600万辆汽车和300万辆卡车。</blockquote></p><p> Could pent-up demand for travel and leisure drive a Roaring ‘20s today?</p><p><blockquote>被压抑的旅行和休闲需求能推动今天咆哮的20年代吗？</blockquote></p><p> “I think the quick introduction of vaccines is a major game changer, even with all the growing pains we are seeing in terms of distribution,” says equity portfolio manager Lisa Thompson. “A travel recovery is coming, and I think it can happen relatively quickly. Everybody is eager to go on vacation or to just get out and do stuff. The question is whether the recovery has legs. I think we will have to see how the vaccine rollout evolves, among other things.”</p><p><blockquote>股票投资组合经理丽莎·汤普森(Lisa Thompson)表示：“我认为疫苗的快速推出是一个重大的游戏规则改变者，尽管我们在分销方面看到了所有成长的烦恼。”“旅行复苏即将到来，我认为这可能会相对较快地发生。每个人都渴望去度假或只是出去做一些事情。问题是复苏是否持续。我认为我们将不得不看看疫苗的推出如何演变等。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ready, willing — and able — to spend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>准备好、愿意并且有能力花钱</b></blockquote></p><p> Indeed, cabin fever appears to have taken hold of consumers everywhere. There are signs that Americans are prepared to act: Savings rates have soared since the start of the pandemic, and though they have slowed a bit in recent months they remain relatively high.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，幽居病似乎已经席卷了世界各地的消费者。有迹象表明美国人准备采取行动：自大流行开始以来，储蓄率飙升，尽管近几个月有所放缓，但仍相对较高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0902a5a997d2660913098a5a3551b0\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"407\">“Once there’s an all-clear, I expect the desire to travel plus the ability for many consumers to spend means we could see a powerful recovery, even if it takes a few years,” adds Thompson, who has spent more than 30 years as a professional investor.</p><p><blockquote>“一旦解除警报，我预计旅行的愿望加上许多消费者的消费能力意味着我们可能会看到强劲的复苏，即使需要几年时间，”已经工作了30多年的汤普森补充道。专业投资者。</blockquote></p><p> “This crisis is much different than the global financial crisis in 2008 or any of the other crises I’ve seen in my career. Today, looser fiscal policy, looser monetary policy, a very strong banking system and high personal savings rates could help drive a very sharp pickup in demand.”</p><p><blockquote>“这场危机与2008年的全球金融危机或我职业生涯中见过的任何其他危机都有很大不同。如今，更宽松的财政政策、更宽松的货币政策、非常强大的银行体系和高个人储蓄率可能有助于推动需求大幅回升。”</blockquote></p><p> These conditions not only can benefit the travel and leisure industries but also the broadereconomy. To be sure, there will probably be hiccups along the way, and some areas will likely recover more quickly than others.</p><p><blockquote>这些条件不仅有利于旅游和休闲行业，也有利于更广泛的经济。可以肯定的是，一路上可能会出现一些问题，一些地区可能会比其他地区恢复得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Passenger loyalty: A tailwind for cruise lines</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客忠诚度：邮轮公司的顺风车</b></blockquote></p><p> Cruise ships became the epicenter of the COVID crisis in February 2020, when 3,700 people were quarantined aboard the Diamond Princess after a shipboard outbreak. At the time, the ship accounted for half of all known cases outside mainland China.</p><p><blockquote>2020年2月，游轮成为COVID危机的中心，当时船上爆发疫情后，钻石公主号上有3,700人被隔离。当时，该船占中国大陆以外所有已知病例的一半。</blockquote></p><p> “This industry has gotten so much negative media, yet people are still booking cruises for 2021 and 2022 at prices higher than they were in 2019,” says equity analyst Todd Saligman, who covers cruise lines and U.S. and European airlines. “That’s pretty indicative of the demand. There is a loyalty and enthusiasm among cruisers that people who don’t cruise may fail to appreciate, and that loyalty has persisted through the crisis.”</p><p><blockquote>“这个行业受到了如此多的负面媒体报道，但人们仍然以高于2019年的价格预订2021年和2022年的邮轮，”负责邮轮公司以及美国和欧洲航空公司业务的股票分析师托德·萨利格曼(Todd Saligman)表示。“这很好地表明了需求。巡洋舰中存在着一种忠诚度和热情，而不巡洋舰的人可能无法体会到，而且这种忠诚度在危机期间一直存在。”</blockquote></p><p> In fact, more than 70% of respondents to an industry survey said they will cruise again.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，超过70%的行业调查受访者表示他们将再次乘坐游轮。</blockquote></p><p> Loyal customers can keep cruise industry afloat</p><p><blockquote>忠诚的客户可以维持邮轮业的发展</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43a53407adb55957b5a34953e08768be\" tg-width=\"702\" tg-height=\"442\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> While cruising has resumed in Europe, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control imposed a “no sail” order that has not yet been lifted in North America.</p><p><blockquote>在欧洲恢复巡航的同时，美国疾病控制中心实施了“禁止航行”的命令，该命令在北美尚未解除。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s not clear when the ships will set sail again, but I believe they will be cruising near full utilization quicker than many people expect,” Saligman says.</p><p><blockquote>“目前尚不清楚这些船只何时会再次起航，但我相信它们将比许多人预期的更快地接近完全利用，”萨利格曼说。</blockquote></p><p> Although cruise stocks have rebounded from their March lows, Saligman believes select cruise lines continue to represent opportunity for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管邮轮股已从3月份的低点反弹，但萨利格曼认为，精选邮轮公司继续为长期投资者带来机会。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, with intense focus on healthy sailing practices, “There’s a case to be made that they could one day be considered among the cleanest places on earth to vacation,” says equity portfolio manager Chris Buchbinder.</p><p><blockquote>此外，股票投资组合经理克里斯·布赫宾德(Chris Buchbinder)表示，随着对健康航海实践的高度关注，“有理由证明，有一天它们可能会被视为地球上最干净的度假场所之一”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vacation plans up in the air</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假期计划悬而未决</b></blockquote></p><p> As was the case in the cruise industry, global air travel was down an estimated 66% in 2020, about 20 times worse than the previous record. Within the U.S., which is more dependent on business travel, the devastation was worse: Air travel declined as much as 95% in the early months of the crisis.</p><p><blockquote>与邮轮业的情况一样，2020年全球航空旅行预计下降66%，比之前的记录差约20倍。在更依赖商务旅行的美国，灾难更加严重：在危机的最初几个月，航空旅行下降了95%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The rollout of the vaccines and prior experience gives Saligman confidence that demand will bounce back. “I believe it will happen quickly as the vaccine rolls out,” he says. “We also saw this after the September 11 attacks. A lot of people thought consumers would never fly again, and traffic recovered quickly.”</p><p><blockquote>疫苗的推出和之前的经验让萨利格曼相信需求将会反弹。“我相信随着疫苗的推出，这将很快发生，”他说。“我们在9月11日袭击后也看到了这一点。很多人认为消费者再也不会坐飞机了，但交通很快就恢复了。”</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, in China, where the virus is largely under control and the economy has rebounded, domestic air travel has nearly returned to pre-COVID levels.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，在中国，病毒已基本得到控制，经济也已反弹，国内航空旅行几乎已恢复到新冠疫情爆发前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Air travel in China has soared back. Will the U.S. soon follow?</p><p><blockquote>中国的航空旅行猛增。美国会很快效仿吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5e4e3bf8e7f8c037aba59d333be4710\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"386\"><b>The ripple effect</b></p><p><blockquote><b>涟漪效应</b></blockquote></p><p> A revival in travel demand can also have a powerful ripple effect, creating the need for a range of goods and services and helping drive job growth across a variety of industries. Among these are aircraft manufacturers, jet engine makers, hotels, casinos and restaurants — all of which were devastated by the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>旅行需求的复苏也会产生强大的连锁反应，创造对一系列商品和服务的需求，并有助于推动各个行业的就业增长。其中包括飞机制造商、喷气发动机制造商、酒店、赌场和餐馆——所有这些都被疫情摧毁了。</blockquote></p><p> Consider aircraft engine makers, which operate a recurring revenue business model. Companies like Safran and General Electric build the engines and sell them at a modest profit, but the engines must be serviced regularly, and the engine makers can generate a great deal of revenue from the service contracts.</p><p><blockquote>以飞机发动机制造商为例，它们采用经常性收入商业模式。赛峰集团和通用电气等公司制造发动机并以适度的利润出售，但发动机必须定期维修，发动机制造商可以从服务合同中获得大量收入。</blockquote></p><p> “They're not making any money this year, because airplanes are grounded, but as air travel resumes, those manufacturers will potentially see their cash flows rebound,” Buchbinder says.</p><p><blockquote>布赫宾德说：“由于飞机停飞，他们今年没有赚到任何钱，但随着航空旅行的恢复，这些制造商的现金流可能会反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> Unlike other sectors of the economy during COVID, aircraft engine makers are not going to see digital disruption upend their business. “After all,” Buchbinder adds, “there are no digital aircraft engines.”</p><p><blockquote>与新冠疫情期间的其他经济部门不同，飞机发动机制造商不会看到数字化颠覆他们的业务。“毕竟，”布赫宾德补充道，“没有数字飞机发动机。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Markets tend to anticipate recoveries</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场倾向于预期复苏</b></blockquote></p><p> Markets often anticipate recoveries in the underlying economy, so it’s important to recognize underlying trends early. Consider the global financial crisis, a period when the housing and automobile industries were severely beaten down. By 2012 it became clear that demand was building, thanks to changing demographics and an aging auto fleet. In both industries, a full recovery took several more years, but a rebound in auto- and housing-related stocks anticipated the recovery in demand and earnings. From February 2009 through December 2010, auto sales fell 6% while auto stock returns advanced 496%.</p><p><blockquote>市场通常预期基础经济会复苏，因此尽早认识到基础趋势非常重要。以全球金融危机为例，当时房地产和汽车行业遭受重创。到2012年，由于人口结构的变化和车队的老化，需求显然正在增加。在这两个行业，全面复苏还需要几年时间，但汽车和房地产相关股票的反弹预示着需求和盈利的复苏。从2009年2月到2010年12月，汽车销量下降了6%，而汽车股票回报率却上涨了496%。</blockquote></p><p> Auto stocks rebounded ahead of sales after the global financial crisis</p><p><blockquote>全球金融危机后汽车股先于销售反弹</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c4fdd2f1cb916356663c0570548d7d1\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"457\">More recently, since the introduction of the vaccines, shares of companies across a number of travel-related industries have registered strong gains. Select companies likely have room to run, Buchbinder says.</p><p><blockquote>最近，自疫苗推出以来，许多旅游相关行业公司的股价都出现了强劲上涨。布赫宾德表示，部分公司可能有经营空间。</blockquote></p><p> “The market often runs ahead of the actual recovery in earnings,” he says. “I think a year from now we will be in a very different environment where demand and earnings for some of these companies will begin to recover in a more meaningful and sustained way. Our job as investors is to identify those companies that stand to benefit most from the changing environment.”</p><p><blockquote>“市场往往先于盈利的实际复苏，”他说。“我认为一年后，我们将处于一个非常不同的环境中，其中一些公司的需求和盈利将开始以更有意义和持续的方式复苏。作为投资者，我们的工作是确定那些最有可能受益的公司从不断变化的环境中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Maintaining a balance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>保持平衡</b></blockquote></p><p> Students of history can look to many examples of past crises and declines that were followed by powerful recoveries thanks in part to pent-up consumer demand. Examples include the travel sector after 9/11 and the housing and auto industries following the end of the great financial crisis in 2008–2009.</p><p><blockquote>历史专业的学生可以看到许多过去危机和衰退的例子，这些危机和衰退随后强劲复苏，部分原因是被压抑的消费者需求。例子包括9/11后的旅游业以及2008-2009年金融危机结束后的房地产和汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> As long-term investors, Capital Group’s investment professionals seek to identify trends early enough to select the companies that stand to benefit from these dynamics. For investors and their advisors, it is important to make sure portfolios are balanced with exposure not only to growth strategies but also to strategies focused on more value-oriented companies, like many of the travel-related stocks.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，Capital Group的投资专业人士寻求尽早识别趋势，以选择能够从这些动态中受益的公司。对于投资者及其顾问来说，重要的是要确保投资组合平衡，不仅投资于增长策略，还投资于专注于更注重价值的公司的策略，例如许多与旅游相关的股票。</blockquote></p><p> A review of more than 4,000 portfolios byCapital Group’s Portfolio & Analytics teamfound that investors significantly reduced allocations to value equities over the last three years. It may be time to rebalance.</p><p><blockquote>Capital Group的投资组合与分析团队对4,000多个投资组合进行了审查，发现投资者在过去三年中大幅减少了对价值股票的配置。也许是时候重新平衡了。</blockquote></p><p> Returns for leading growth companies have continued to be strong, for good reason. But it may be shortsighted for investors to become seduced by the runaway growth stories, considering that many of the beaten down stocks in travel and other sectors have attractive valuations. And recently there have been some early signs that the market rally may be broadening as many of these stocks have posted meaningful gains.</p><p><blockquote>领先成长型公司的回报持续强劲，这是有充分理由的。但考虑到旅游和其他行业许多遭受重创的股票估值颇具吸引力，投资者被失控的增长故事所诱惑可能是短视的。最近有一些早期迹象表明，市场涨势可能正在扩大，因为其中许多股票都出现了有意义的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have scaled back their exposure to value funds</p><p><blockquote>投资者缩减了对价值基金的投资</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4976193700784d30c3ec9bb7db82806\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"375\">“We’ve just been through a market downturn and recovery where the great secular growth companies led during the decline and on the way back up,” Buchbinder says. “That is a historically unusual pattern. As the vaccines roll out and the recovery broadens we will begin to see companies in the travel industry, or perhaps energy or financials, all of which had been very hard hit during the downturn, participate in the recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>布赫宾德表示：“我们刚刚经历了市场低迷和复苏，伟大的长期增长公司在下跌和回升过程中处于领先地位。”“这是一种历史上不寻常的模式。随着疫苗的推出和复苏的扩大，我们将开始看到旅游业、能源或金融行业的公司参与复苏，所有这些行业在经济低迷期间都受到了非常严重的打击。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/pent-up-demand.html\">Capital Group</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/pent-up-demand.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136781183","content_text":"With major league baseball’s spring training just around the corner, you may already be daydreaming about the smell of cut grass and roasted peanuts, hearing the crack of the bat and the roar of the crowd — just to feel normal again.\nIf so, you are not alone — not among fellow Americans weary of the COVID pandemic nor within the context of history. This would not be the first time Americans have lived through a period of austerity brought on by a pandemic that resulted in burgeoning pent-up demand. In 1918, the Spanish Flu and World War I largely curtailed social gatherings and other activities across the country.\nTo be sure, the U.S. was a very different place in the early 20th century, but consider that attendance at baseball stadiums in 1918 was half that of the previous year.\nBy 1919, however, the pandemic had largely subsided, the war was over and attendance at games soared from 2.8 million in 1918 to 6.5 million in 1919. The decade that followed — the Roaring ‘20s — coincided with the first golden age of the automobile. Americans eager to see the countryside bought nearly 26 million cars and 3 million trucks in the 1920s, according to Automotive News.\nCould pent-up demand for travel and leisure drive a Roaring ‘20s today?\n“I think the quick introduction of vaccines is a major game changer, even with all the growing pains we are seeing in terms of distribution,” says equity portfolio manager Lisa Thompson. “A travel recovery is coming, and I think it can happen relatively quickly. Everybody is eager to go on vacation or to just get out and do stuff. The question is whether the recovery has legs. I think we will have to see how the vaccine rollout evolves, among other things.”\nReady, willing — and able — to spend\nIndeed, cabin fever appears to have taken hold of consumers everywhere. There are signs that Americans are prepared to act: Savings rates have soared since the start of the pandemic, and though they have slowed a bit in recent months they remain relatively high.\n“Once there’s an all-clear, I expect the desire to travel plus the ability for many consumers to spend means we could see a powerful recovery, even if it takes a few years,” adds Thompson, who has spent more than 30 years as a professional investor.\n“This crisis is much different than the global financial crisis in 2008 or any of the other crises I’ve seen in my career. Today, looser fiscal policy, looser monetary policy, a very strong banking system and high personal savings rates could help drive a very sharp pickup in demand.”\nThese conditions not only can benefit the travel and leisure industries but also the broadereconomy. To be sure, there will probably be hiccups along the way, and some areas will likely recover more quickly than others.\nPassenger loyalty: A tailwind for cruise lines\nCruise ships became the epicenter of the COVID crisis in February 2020, when 3,700 people were quarantined aboard the Diamond Princess after a shipboard outbreak. At the time, the ship accounted for half of all known cases outside mainland China.\n“This industry has gotten so much negative media, yet people are still booking cruises for 2021 and 2022 at prices higher than they were in 2019,” says equity analyst Todd Saligman, who covers cruise lines and U.S. and European airlines. “That’s pretty indicative of the demand. There is a loyalty and enthusiasm among cruisers that people who don’t cruise may fail to appreciate, and that loyalty has persisted through the crisis.”\nIn fact, more than 70% of respondents to an industry survey said they will cruise again.\nLoyal customers can keep cruise industry afloat\n\nWhile cruising has resumed in Europe, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control imposed a “no sail” order that has not yet been lifted in North America.\n“It’s not clear when the ships will set sail again, but I believe they will be cruising near full utilization quicker than many people expect,” Saligman says.\nAlthough cruise stocks have rebounded from their March lows, Saligman believes select cruise lines continue to represent opportunity for long-term investors.\nWhat’s more, with intense focus on healthy sailing practices, “There’s a case to be made that they could one day be considered among the cleanest places on earth to vacation,” says equity portfolio manager Chris Buchbinder.\nVacation plans up in the air\nAs was the case in the cruise industry, global air travel was down an estimated 66% in 2020, about 20 times worse than the previous record. Within the U.S., which is more dependent on business travel, the devastation was worse: Air travel declined as much as 95% in the early months of the crisis.\nThe rollout of the vaccines and prior experience gives Saligman confidence that demand will bounce back. “I believe it will happen quickly as the vaccine rolls out,” he says. “We also saw this after the September 11 attacks. A lot of people thought consumers would never fly again, and traffic recovered quickly.”\nIndeed, in China, where the virus is largely under control and the economy has rebounded, domestic air travel has nearly returned to pre-COVID levels.\nAir travel in China has soared back. Will the U.S. soon follow?\nThe ripple effect\nA revival in travel demand can also have a powerful ripple effect, creating the need for a range of goods and services and helping drive job growth across a variety of industries. Among these are aircraft manufacturers, jet engine makers, hotels, casinos and restaurants — all of which were devastated by the pandemic.\nConsider aircraft engine makers, which operate a recurring revenue business model. Companies like Safran and General Electric build the engines and sell them at a modest profit, but the engines must be serviced regularly, and the engine makers can generate a great deal of revenue from the service contracts.\n“They're not making any money this year, because airplanes are grounded, but as air travel resumes, those manufacturers will potentially see their cash flows rebound,” Buchbinder says.\nUnlike other sectors of the economy during COVID, aircraft engine makers are not going to see digital disruption upend their business. “After all,” Buchbinder adds, “there are no digital aircraft engines.”\nMarkets tend to anticipate recoveries\nMarkets often anticipate recoveries in the underlying economy, so it’s important to recognize underlying trends early. Consider the global financial crisis, a period when the housing and automobile industries were severely beaten down. By 2012 it became clear that demand was building, thanks to changing demographics and an aging auto fleet. In both industries, a full recovery took several more years, but a rebound in auto- and housing-related stocks anticipated the recovery in demand and earnings. From February 2009 through December 2010, auto sales fell 6% while auto stock returns advanced 496%.\nAuto stocks rebounded ahead of sales after the global financial crisis\nMore recently, since the introduction of the vaccines, shares of companies across a number of travel-related industries have registered strong gains. Select companies likely have room to run, Buchbinder says.\n“The market often runs ahead of the actual recovery in earnings,” he says. “I think a year from now we will be in a very different environment where demand and earnings for some of these companies will begin to recover in a more meaningful and sustained way. Our job as investors is to identify those companies that stand to benefit most from the changing environment.”\nMaintaining a balance\nStudents of history can look to many examples of past crises and declines that were followed by powerful recoveries thanks in part to pent-up consumer demand. Examples include the travel sector after 9/11 and the housing and auto industries following the end of the great financial crisis in 2008–2009.\nAs long-term investors, Capital Group’s investment professionals seek to identify trends early enough to select the companies that stand to benefit from these dynamics. For investors and their advisors, it is important to make sure portfolios are balanced with exposure not only to growth strategies but also to strategies focused on more value-oriented companies, like many of the travel-related stocks.\nA review of more than 4,000 portfolios byCapital Group’s Portfolio & Analytics teamfound that investors significantly reduced allocations to value equities over the last three years. It may be time to rebalance.\nReturns for leading growth companies have continued to be strong, for good reason. But it may be shortsighted for investors to become seduced by the runaway growth stories, considering that many of the beaten down stocks in travel and other sectors have attractive valuations. And recently there have been some early signs that the market rally may be broadening as many of these stocks have posted meaningful gains.\nInvestors have scaled back their exposure to value funds\n“We’ve just been through a market downturn and recovery where the great secular growth companies led during the decline and on the way back up,” Buchbinder says. “That is a historically unusual pattern. As the vaccines roll out and the recovery broadens we will begin to see companies in the travel industry, or perhaps energy or financials, all of which had been very hard hit during the downturn, participate in the recovery.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":493,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":52,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/329406977"}
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