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2021-03-08

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Financial Stocks Have Crushed Tech. The Trade Is Still Alive.<blockquote>金融股碾压了科技股。交易仍然活跃。</blockquote>

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The Trade Is Still Alive.<blockquote>金融股碾压了科技股。交易仍然活跃。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176535165","media":"Barrons","summary":"The rally in financial stocks has been so strong that they have outperformed tech—the darling of the","content":"The rally in financial stocks has been so strong that they have outperformed tech—the darling of the pandemic—since the bear-market low last March. Don’t expect that to end any time soon.<blockquote>自去年3月熊市低点以来，金融股的涨势如此强劲，以至于它们的表现优于科技股——疫情的宠儿。不要指望这种情况会很快结束。</blockquote> The price movements of almost allfinancial assets have reflected expectations for higher economic growth and inflation since September. Perhaps most importantly, interest rates have taken off, with opposite effects on the two sectors.<blockquote>自9月份以来，几乎所有金融资产的价格走势都反映了对经济增长和通胀上升的预期。也许最重要的是，利率已经起飞，对这两个行业产生了相反的影响。</blockquote> Banks lend more when the economy is healthier, and have to set aside less money to cover potential losses on loans. At the same time, each loan is more profitable iflong-term interest rates riserelative to short-term borrowing costs, as they have recently. Banks pay short-term rates for funds they get from depositors and in the money market, and lend that cash out at long-term rates, for periods of as much as 30 years,<blockquote>当经济更健康时，银行会放贷更多，并且必须留出更少的资金来弥补贷款的潜在损失。与此同时，如果长期利率相对于短期借贷成本上升（就像最近一样），每笔贷款的利润都会更高。银行为从储户和货币市场获得的资金支付短期利率，并以长期利率将现金贷出，期限长达30年，</blockquote> The same rise in rates—the yield on the 10-year Treasury note more than doubled since September—has eaten into the valuations of stocks, reducing the present, discounted value of money to be earned in the future.It is a particular problem for hot growth stocks, many of them in the tech sector, because most of their earnings are expected to come years from now.<blockquote>同样的利率上升——10年期国债收益率自9月份以来翻了一倍多——侵蚀了股票的估值，降低了未来可赚取的货币的当前贴现价值。对于热门成长型股票（其中许多属于科技行业）来说，这是一个特殊的问题，因为它们的大部分盈利预计将在几年后出现。</blockquote> Now, theFinancial Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLF) is up almost 90% since the low of the pandemic-induced bear market. TheTechnology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK) is up 82%.<blockquote>现在，金融精选行业SPDR基金（股票代码：XLF）自大流行引发的熊市低点以来已上涨近90%。科技精选行业SPDR基金(XLK)上涨82%。</blockquote> “Thanks to investors resetting their view on interest rates, there has been a swift and meaningful rotation out of technology stocks and into financials,” wrote Jason Goepfert, founder of Sundial Capital Research. In roughly the past year, the aggregate value of tech stocks has fallen to about five times that of financials, compared with 6.4 times.<blockquote>Sundial Capital Research创始人Jason Goepfert写道：“由于投资者重新调整了对利率的看法，科技股迅速而有意义地转向金融股。”大约在过去一年里，科技股的总价值已跌至金融股的五倍左右，而金融股的总价值为6.4倍。</blockquote> It isn’t too late to move into financial stocks.<blockquote>现在进入金融股还为时不晚。</blockquote> The economy is reopening, the government has spenttrillions of dollars to prop up growth, and many consumers and businesses are ready to spend. Prices for financial stocks reflect how they could benefit from all that, but several factors indicate the group may have more room to run.<blockquote>经济正在重新开放，政府已花费数万亿美元来支撑增长，许多消费者和企业已准备好支出。金融股的价格反映了它们如何从中受益，但几个因素表明该集团可能有更大的运行空间。</blockquote> First,many observers expect the 10-year Treasury yield to hit roughly 2% by year-end, a major positive for bank profitability. So long as the Federal Reserve doesn’t lift interest rates too high before the economy can handle it, loan volumes shouldn’t suffer. Earnings growth for financial companies in the S&amp;P 500 could be 12% in 2022 , according to FactSet data.<blockquote>首先，许多观察人士预计10年期国债收益率将在年底前达到2%左右，这对银行盈利能力来说是一个重大利好。只要美联储在经济能够承受之前不会将利率提高得太高，贷款量就不会受到影响。FactSet数据显示，2022年标普500金融公司的盈利增长可能达到12%。</blockquote> Plus, financial stocks’ valuations are low. Their ratios of stock prices to expected 2022 per-share earnings are 30% lower than for the average stock in the S&amp;P 500. Historically, financials trade at multiples in line with the index, according to research from RBC Capital Markets.<blockquote>另外，金融股的估值较低。他们的股价与2022年预期每股收益的比率比标普500的平均股票低30%。根据加拿大皇家银行资本市场的研究，从历史上看，金融股的交易倍数与该指数一致。</blockquote> The fact that a group of stocks is hot doesn’t disqualify it as one to buy.<blockquote>一组股票热门的事实并不意味着它失去了买入的资格。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Financial Stocks Have Crushed Tech. The Trade Is Still Alive.<blockquote>金融股碾压了科技股。交易仍然活跃。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFinancial Stocks Have Crushed Tech. The Trade Is Still Alive.<blockquote>金融股碾压了科技股。交易仍然活跃。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-03-08 21:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe rally in financial stocks has been so strong that they have outperformed tech—the darling of the pandemic—since the bear-market low last March. Don’t expect that to end any time soon.<blockquote>自去年3月熊市低点以来，金融股的涨势如此强劲，以至于它们的表现优于科技股——疫情的宠儿。不要指望这种情况会很快结束。</blockquote> The price movements of almost allfinancial assets have reflected expectations for higher economic growth and inflation since September. Perhaps most importantly, interest rates have taken off, with opposite effects on the two sectors.<blockquote>自9月份以来，几乎所有金融资产的价格走势都反映了对经济增长和通胀上升的预期。也许最重要的是，利率已经起飞，对这两个行业产生了相反的影响。</blockquote> Banks lend more when the economy is healthier, and have to set aside less money to cover potential losses on loans. At the same time, each loan is more profitable iflong-term interest rates riserelative to short-term borrowing costs, as they have recently. Banks pay short-term rates for funds they get from depositors and in the money market, and lend that cash out at long-term rates, for periods of as much as 30 years,<blockquote>当经济更健康时，银行会放贷更多，并且必须留出更少的资金来弥补贷款的潜在损失。与此同时，如果长期利率相对于短期借贷成本上升（就像最近一样），每笔贷款的利润都会更高。银行为从储户和货币市场获得的资金支付短期利率，并以长期利率将现金贷出，期限长达30年，</blockquote> The same rise in rates—the yield on the 10-year Treasury note more than doubled since September—has eaten into the valuations of stocks, reducing the present, discounted value of money to be earned in the future.It is a particular problem for hot growth stocks, many of them in the tech sector, because most of their earnings are expected to come years from now.<blockquote>同样的利率上升——10年期国债收益率自9月份以来翻了一倍多——侵蚀了股票的估值，降低了未来可赚取的货币的当前贴现价值。对于热门成长型股票（其中许多属于科技行业）来说，这是一个特殊的问题，因为它们的大部分盈利预计将在几年后出现。</blockquote> Now, theFinancial Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLF) is up almost 90% since the low of the pandemic-induced bear market. TheTechnology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK) is up 82%.<blockquote>现在，金融精选行业SPDR基金（股票代码：XLF）自大流行引发的熊市低点以来已上涨近90%。科技精选行业SPDR基金(XLK)上涨82%。</blockquote> “Thanks to investors resetting their view on interest rates, there has been a swift and meaningful rotation out of technology stocks and into financials,” wrote Jason Goepfert, founder of Sundial Capital Research. In roughly the past year, the aggregate value of tech stocks has fallen to about five times that of financials, compared with 6.4 times.<blockquote>Sundial Capital Research创始人Jason Goepfert写道：“由于投资者重新调整了对利率的看法，科技股迅速而有意义地转向金融股。”大约在过去一年里，科技股的总价值已跌至金融股的五倍左右，而金融股的总价值为6.4倍。</blockquote> It isn’t too late to move into financial stocks.<blockquote>现在进入金融股还为时不晚。</blockquote> The economy is reopening, the government has spenttrillions of dollars to prop up growth, and many consumers and businesses are ready to spend. Prices for financial stocks reflect how they could benefit from all that, but several factors indicate the group may have more room to run.<blockquote>经济正在重新开放，政府已花费数万亿美元来支撑增长，许多消费者和企业已准备好支出。金融股的价格反映了它们如何从中受益，但几个因素表明该集团可能有更大的运行空间。</blockquote> First,many observers expect the 10-year Treasury yield to hit roughly 2% by year-end, a major positive for bank profitability. So long as the Federal Reserve doesn’t lift interest rates too high before the economy can handle it, loan volumes shouldn’t suffer. Earnings growth for financial companies in the S&amp;P 500 could be 12% in 2022 , according to FactSet data.<blockquote>首先，许多观察人士预计10年期国债收益率将在年底前达到2%左右，这对银行盈利能力来说是一个重大利好。只要美联储在经济能够承受之前不会将利率提高得太高，贷款量就不会受到影响。FactSet数据显示，2022年标普500金融公司的盈利增长可能达到12%。</blockquote> Plus, financial stocks’ valuations are low. Their ratios of stock prices to expected 2022 per-share earnings are 30% lower than for the average stock in the S&amp;P 500. Historically, financials trade at multiples in line with the index, according to research from RBC Capital Markets.<blockquote>另外，金融股的估值较低。他们的股价与2022年预期每股收益的比率比标普500的平均股票低30%。根据加拿大皇家银行资本市场的研究，从历史上看，金融股的交易倍数与该指数一致。</blockquote> The fact that a group of stocks is hot doesn’t disqualify it as one to buy.<blockquote>一组股票热门的事实并不意味着它失去了买入的资格。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/financial-stocks-have-crushed-tech-the-trade-is-still-alive-51615206612?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/financial-stocks-have-crushed-tech-the-trade-is-still-alive-51615206612?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176535165","content_text":"The rally in financial stocks has been so strong that they have outperformed tech—the darling of the pandemic—since the bear-market low last March. Don’t expect that to end any time soon.\nThe price movements of almost allfinancial assets have reflected expectations for higher economic growth and inflation since September. Perhaps most importantly, interest rates have taken off, with opposite effects on the two sectors.\nBanks lend more when the economy is healthier, and have to set aside less money to cover potential losses on loans. At the same time, each loan is more profitable iflong-term interest rates riserelative to short-term borrowing costs, as they have recently. Banks pay short-term rates for funds they get from depositors and in the money market, and lend that cash out at long-term rates, for periods of as much as 30 years,\nThe same rise in rates—the yield on the 10-year Treasury note more than doubled since September—has eaten into the valuations of stocks, reducing the present, discounted value of money to be earned in the future.It is a particular problem for hot growth stocks, many of them in the tech sector, because most of their earnings are expected to come years from now.\nNow, theFinancial Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLF) is up almost 90% since the low of the pandemic-induced bear market. TheTechnology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK) is up 82%.\n“Thanks to investors resetting their view on interest rates, there has been a swift and meaningful rotation out of technology stocks and into financials,” wrote Jason Goepfert, founder of Sundial Capital Research. In roughly the past year, the aggregate value of tech stocks has fallen to about five times that of financials, compared with 6.4 times.\nIt isn’t too late to move into financial stocks.\nThe economy is reopening, the government has spenttrillions of dollars to prop up growth, and many consumers and businesses are ready to spend. Prices for financial stocks reflect how they could benefit from all that, but several factors indicate the group may have more room to run.\nFirst,many observers expect the 10-year Treasury yield to hit roughly 2% by year-end, a major positive for bank profitability. So long as the Federal Reserve doesn’t lift interest rates too high before the economy can handle it, loan volumes shouldn’t suffer. Earnings growth for financial companies in the S&P 500 could be 12% in 2022 , according to FactSet data.\nPlus, financial stocks’ valuations are low. Their ratios of stock prices to expected 2022 per-share earnings are 30% lower than for the average stock in the S&P 500. Historically, financials trade at multiples in line with the index, according to research from RBC Capital Markets.\nThe fact that a group of stocks is hot doesn’t disqualify it as one to buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4309,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/329329885"}