What gives ?_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-03-19

What gives ?

The Fed is dovish but bond yields are soaring. What gives?<blockquote>美联储态度温和，但债券收益率正在飙升。什么给？</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":327412073,"tweetId":"327412073","gmtCreate":1616116502292,"gmtModify":1634527159006,"author":{"id":3556520970499983,"idStr":"3556520970499983","authorId":3556520970499983,"authorIdStr":"3556520970499983","name":"La0Hu0Tang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75337e153897f5c0f3b5f47674132fd1","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>What gives ?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>What gives ?</body></html>","text":"What gives ?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327412073","repostId":1104563102,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104563102","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616116184,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104563102?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 09:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed is dovish but bond yields are soaring. What gives?<blockquote>美联储态度温和，但债券收益率正在飙升。什么给？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104563102","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"10-year Treasury yield flirts with 1.75%Only a day after analysts had hailed the victory of the Fede","content":"10-year Treasury yield flirts with 1.75%<blockquote>10年期国债收益率徘徊在1.75%</blockquote>Only a day after analysts had hailed the victory of the Federal Reserve over traders doubting the central bank’s pledge to keep monetary policy easy for an extended period, bond yields rose sharply on Thursday.<blockquote>就在分析师欢呼美联储战胜了怀疑美联储长期保持宽松货币政策承诺的交易员一天后，债券收益率周四大幅上涨。</blockquote>The 10-year Treasury note yield&nbsp;was up nearly 10 basis points to around 1.74%, around its highest level since January 2020. Meanwhile, the 30-year bond yield&nbsp;was knocking on the door of 2.5%, near its loftiest level since mid-2019. Bond prices move inversely to yields.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率上涨近10个基点至1.74%左右，接近2020年1月以来的最高水平。与此同时，30年期债券收益率即将达到2.5%，接近2019年中期以来的最高水平。债券价格与收益率成反比。</blockquote>Investors are now scrambling to understand what has prompted the renewed volatility in a Treasury market that appeared to have calmed down after Wednesday’s Fed meeting.<blockquote>投资者现在正争先恐后地了解是什么促使美国国债市场再次出现波动，而周三美联储会议后，美国国债市场似乎已经平静下来。</blockquote>Here are some of the theories being thrown around:<blockquote>以下是一些正在流传的理论：</blockquote>Average Inflation Targeting<blockquote>平均通货膨胀目标制</blockquote>After the meeting, market participants said Powell’s dovish messaging was, in fact, responsible for higher long-term yields.<blockquote>会后，市场人士表示，鲍威尔的鸽派信息实际上是长期收益率走高的原因。</blockquote>At the postmeeting news-conference, Powell underlined the central bank would stick to its new framework of average inflation targeting, which would in theory only see the central bank contemplate less accommodative policy if inflation managed a sustained overshoot of 2%.<blockquote>在会后新闻发布会上，鲍威尔强调，央行将坚持其新的平均通胀目标框架，理论上只有在通胀持续超过2%的情况下，央行才会考虑采取不那么宽松的政策。</blockquote>By confirming the Fed’s willingness to stand pat, even if inflation saw a temporary surge beyond 2%, investors may be raising the probability the economy will run hot in the next few years without having to worry about the central bank pulling away the market’s punchbowl. In that scenario, long-term bond yields would have little protection against the risk of an inflationary surge.<blockquote>通过确认美联储愿意按兵不动，即使通胀暂时飙升至2%以上，投资者也可能会提高未来几年经济过热的可能性，而不必担心央行会夺走市场的潘趣酒碗。在这种情况下，长期债券收益率几乎无法抵御通胀飙升的风险。</blockquote>“This new inflation framework is destined for a steeper yield curve,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, in an interview, referring to the spread between short-term and long-term yields.<blockquote>John Hancock Investment Management联席首席投资策略师Matthew Miskin在接受采访时表示：“这种新的通胀框架注定会导致更陡峭的收益率曲线。”他指的是短期和长期收益率之间的利差。</blockquote>Yet markets were sending mixed messages. Break-even rates that show inflation expectations among holders of Treasury inflation-protected securities indicated investors did not see price pressures persisting over the longer term.<blockquote>然而，市场发出了复杂的信息。显示国债通胀保值证券持有者通胀预期的盈亏平衡率表明，投资者认为价格压力不会长期持续。</blockquote>The 5-year break-even rate&nbsp;was around 30 basis points higher&nbsp;than the 10-year break-even rate.<blockquote>5年期盈亏平衡利率比10年期盈亏平衡利率高出约30个基点。</blockquote>“The market is pricing in transitory inflation,” said Frank Rybinski, chief macro strategist at Aegon Asset Management, in an interview.<blockquote>Aegon Asset Management首席宏观策略师Frank Rybinski在接受采访时表示：“市场正在定价暂时性通胀。”</blockquote>Credibility<blockquote>可信性</blockquote>Amid the Treasury-market selloff, the sharpest rises were seen among medium-term maturities like the 5-year note&nbsp;and 7-year note.<blockquote>在国债市场抛售中，5年期国债和7年期国债等中期国债涨幅最大。</blockquote>As a proxy for interest-rate expectations over the next few years, their surge could also have suggested investors may be doubting the central bank’s pledge to keep policy accommodative for a sustained stretch of time.<blockquote>作为未来几年利率预期的代表，利率飙升也可能表明投资者可能怀疑央行在持续一段时间内保持宽松政策的承诺。</blockquote>After all, analysts remarked there was only so much the central bank could do to fight investors’ tendency to look ahead.<blockquote>毕竟，分析师表示，央行能做的就是对抗投资者向前看的倾向。</blockquote>Given the enormous uncertainty around inflation and economic growth as the economy fully reopens and stimulus makes its way into households’ pockets, it was difficult to know where Fed policy would be in a year’s time when the growth and inflation outlook was just as murky.<blockquote>鉴于随着经济全面重新开放和刺激措施进入家庭口袋，通胀和经济增长存在巨大不确定性，很难知道一年后增长和通胀前景同样黯淡的情况下美联储的政策将走向何方。</blockquote>“This cycle is so much, so fast, and so soon. A lot of things are getting distorted,” said Rybinski.<blockquote>“这个循环如此之多、如此之快、如此之快。很多事情都被扭曲了，”雷宾斯基说。</blockquote>Big in Japan?<blockquote>在日本很大？</blockquote>Yet for all the speculation around whether the Fed was the trigger for the Treasury selloff on Thursday, some analysts were looking abroad for answers.<blockquote>然而，尽管人们猜测美联储是否是周四美国国债抛售的导火索，但一些分析师仍在海外寻找答案。</blockquote>“Global central banks came out overnight with a more hawkish stance,” said Miskin.<blockquote>米斯金表示：“全球央行一夜之间采取了更加鹰派的立场。”</blockquote>The Bank of Japan&nbsp;during its two-day meeting was looking to adjust its yield-curve control policy where it keeps long-term interest rates capped but allows them to trade in a tight range, according to a report from Japanese financial newspaper Nikkei.<blockquote>据日本财经报纸《日经新闻》报道，日本央行在为期两天的会议上寻求调整其收益率曲线控制政策，即限制长期利率，但允许其在狭窄范围内交易。</blockquote>The BOJ’s measures would allow the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to move in a range between 0.25% and negative 0.25%, compared with the current range of 0.20% and negative 0.20%.<blockquote>日本央行的措施将允许10年期日本国债收益率在0.25%至负0.25%之间波动，而目前的区间为0.20%至负0.20%。</blockquote>BofA Global strategists said the tweak would allow “further back-end steepening of the [Japanese government bond] curve, alleviating some of the pressure on financial institutions, and making the&nbsp;BoJ’s&nbsp;easing program more sustainable in the long run.<blockquote>美国银行全球策略师表示，这一调整将允许“（日本政府债券）曲线在后端进一步变陡，缓解金融机构的部分压力，并使日本央行的宽松计划从长远来看更具可持续性。</blockquote>Soon after the report, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield&nbsp;jumped, moving from an intraday low of 0.085% to a high of 0.122%. The 10-year has since steadied at 0.107%, according to Tradeweb data.<blockquote>报告公布后不久，10年期日本国债收益率跳涨，从日内低点0.085%升至高点0.122%。根据Tradeweb的数据，10年期国债收益率此后稳定在0.107%。</blockquote>As an anchor of bond yields across the world, analysts said rising rates in Japan can be amplified into broader weakness in Europe and U.S. bonds as Japanese investors reassess the gains from holding domestic debt over their overseas peers.<blockquote>作为全球债券收益率的支柱，分析师表示，随着日本投资者重新评估持有国内债务相对于海外同行的收益，日本利率上升可能会放大为欧洲和美国债券更广泛的疲软。</blockquote>Meanwhile, the jump in Treasury yields was blamed forrenewed pressure on growth-oriented stocks, which stand to suffer most from higher rates due to lofty valuations. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;slumped more than 3% in Thursday trade, while the more cyclically oriented Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;saw a modest pullback.<blockquote>与此同时，美国国债收益率的上涨被指责为成长型股票带来了新的压力，由于估值较高，这些股票将受到利率上升的最大影响。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数在周四交易中下跌超过3%，而更具周期性的道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500则小幅回调。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed is dovish but bond yields are soaring. What gives?<blockquote>美联储态度温和，但债券收益率正在飙升。什么给？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed is dovish but bond yields are soaring. What gives?<blockquote>美联储态度温和，但债券收益率正在飙升。什么给？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-03-19 09:09\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n10-year Treasury yield flirts with 1.75%<blockquote>10年期国债收益率徘徊在1.75%</blockquote>Only a day after analysts had hailed the victory of the Federal Reserve over traders doubting the central bank’s pledge to keep monetary policy easy for an extended period, bond yields rose sharply on Thursday.<blockquote>就在分析师欢呼美联储战胜了怀疑美联储长期保持宽松货币政策承诺的交易员一天后，债券收益率周四大幅上涨。</blockquote>The 10-year Treasury note yield&nbsp;was up nearly 10 basis points to around 1.74%, around its highest level since January 2020. Meanwhile, the 30-year bond yield&nbsp;was knocking on the door of 2.5%, near its loftiest level since mid-2019. Bond prices move inversely to yields.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率上涨近10个基点至1.74%左右，接近2020年1月以来的最高水平。与此同时，30年期债券收益率即将达到2.5%，接近2019年中期以来的最高水平。债券价格与收益率成反比。</blockquote>Investors are now scrambling to understand what has prompted the renewed volatility in a Treasury market that appeared to have calmed down after Wednesday’s Fed meeting.<blockquote>投资者现在正争先恐后地了解是什么促使美国国债市场再次出现波动，而周三美联储会议后，美国国债市场似乎已经平静下来。</blockquote>Here are some of the theories being thrown around:<blockquote>以下是一些正在流传的理论：</blockquote>Average Inflation Targeting<blockquote>平均通货膨胀目标制</blockquote>After the meeting, market participants said Powell’s dovish messaging was, in fact, responsible for higher long-term yields.<blockquote>会后，市场人士表示，鲍威尔的鸽派信息实际上是长期收益率走高的原因。</blockquote>At the postmeeting news-conference, Powell underlined the central bank would stick to its new framework of average inflation targeting, which would in theory only see the central bank contemplate less accommodative policy if inflation managed a sustained overshoot of 2%.<blockquote>在会后新闻发布会上，鲍威尔强调，央行将坚持其新的平均通胀目标框架，理论上只有在通胀持续超过2%的情况下，央行才会考虑采取不那么宽松的政策。</blockquote>By confirming the Fed’s willingness to stand pat, even if inflation saw a temporary surge beyond 2%, investors may be raising the probability the economy will run hot in the next few years without having to worry about the central bank pulling away the market’s punchbowl. In that scenario, long-term bond yields would have little protection against the risk of an inflationary surge.<blockquote>通过确认美联储愿意按兵不动，即使通胀暂时飙升至2%以上，投资者也可能会提高未来几年经济过热的可能性，而不必担心央行会夺走市场的潘趣酒碗。在这种情况下，长期债券收益率几乎无法抵御通胀飙升的风险。</blockquote>“This new inflation framework is destined for a steeper yield curve,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, in an interview, referring to the spread between short-term and long-term yields.<blockquote>John Hancock Investment Management联席首席投资策略师Matthew Miskin在接受采访时表示：“这种新的通胀框架注定会导致更陡峭的收益率曲线。”他指的是短期和长期收益率之间的利差。</blockquote>Yet markets were sending mixed messages. Break-even rates that show inflation expectations among holders of Treasury inflation-protected securities indicated investors did not see price pressures persisting over the longer term.<blockquote>然而，市场发出了复杂的信息。显示国债通胀保值证券持有者通胀预期的盈亏平衡率表明，投资者认为价格压力不会长期持续。</blockquote>The 5-year break-even rate&nbsp;was around 30 basis points higher&nbsp;than the 10-year break-even rate.<blockquote>5年期盈亏平衡利率比10年期盈亏平衡利率高出约30个基点。</blockquote>“The market is pricing in transitory inflation,” said Frank Rybinski, chief macro strategist at Aegon Asset Management, in an interview.<blockquote>Aegon Asset Management首席宏观策略师Frank Rybinski在接受采访时表示：“市场正在定价暂时性通胀。”</blockquote>Credibility<blockquote>可信性</blockquote>Amid the Treasury-market selloff, the sharpest rises were seen among medium-term maturities like the 5-year note&nbsp;and 7-year note.<blockquote>在国债市场抛售中，5年期国债和7年期国债等中期国债涨幅最大。</blockquote>As a proxy for interest-rate expectations over the next few years, their surge could also have suggested investors may be doubting the central bank’s pledge to keep policy accommodative for a sustained stretch of time.<blockquote>作为未来几年利率预期的代表，利率飙升也可能表明投资者可能怀疑央行在持续一段时间内保持宽松政策的承诺。</blockquote>After all, analysts remarked there was only so much the central bank could do to fight investors’ tendency to look ahead.<blockquote>毕竟，分析师表示，央行能做的就是对抗投资者向前看的倾向。</blockquote>Given the enormous uncertainty around inflation and economic growth as the economy fully reopens and stimulus makes its way into households’ pockets, it was difficult to know where Fed policy would be in a year’s time when the growth and inflation outlook was just as murky.<blockquote>鉴于随着经济全面重新开放和刺激措施进入家庭口袋，通胀和经济增长存在巨大不确定性，很难知道一年后增长和通胀前景同样黯淡的情况下美联储的政策将走向何方。</blockquote>“This cycle is so much, so fast, and so soon. A lot of things are getting distorted,” said Rybinski.<blockquote>“这个循环如此之多、如此之快、如此之快。很多事情都被扭曲了，”雷宾斯基说。</blockquote>Big in Japan?<blockquote>在日本很大？</blockquote>Yet for all the speculation around whether the Fed was the trigger for the Treasury selloff on Thursday, some analysts were looking abroad for answers.<blockquote>然而，尽管人们猜测美联储是否是周四美国国债抛售的导火索，但一些分析师仍在海外寻找答案。</blockquote>“Global central banks came out overnight with a more hawkish stance,” said Miskin.<blockquote>米斯金表示：“全球央行一夜之间采取了更加鹰派的立场。”</blockquote>The Bank of Japan&nbsp;during its two-day meeting was looking to adjust its yield-curve control policy where it keeps long-term interest rates capped but allows them to trade in a tight range, according to a report from Japanese financial newspaper Nikkei.<blockquote>据日本财经报纸《日经新闻》报道，日本央行在为期两天的会议上寻求调整其收益率曲线控制政策，即限制长期利率，但允许其在狭窄范围内交易。</blockquote>The BOJ’s measures would allow the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to move in a range between 0.25% and negative 0.25%, compared with the current range of 0.20% and negative 0.20%.<blockquote>日本央行的措施将允许10年期日本国债收益率在0.25%至负0.25%之间波动，而目前的区间为0.20%至负0.20%。</blockquote>BofA Global strategists said the tweak would allow “further back-end steepening of the [Japanese government bond] curve, alleviating some of the pressure on financial institutions, and making the&nbsp;BoJ’s&nbsp;easing program more sustainable in the long run.<blockquote>美国银行全球策略师表示，这一调整将允许“（日本政府债券）曲线在后端进一步变陡，缓解金融机构的部分压力，并使日本央行的宽松计划从长远来看更具可持续性。</blockquote>Soon after the report, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield&nbsp;jumped, moving from an intraday low of 0.085% to a high of 0.122%. The 10-year has since steadied at 0.107%, according to Tradeweb data.<blockquote>报告公布后不久，10年期日本国债收益率跳涨，从日内低点0.085%升至高点0.122%。根据Tradeweb的数据，10年期国债收益率此后稳定在0.107%。</blockquote>As an anchor of bond yields across the world, analysts said rising rates in Japan can be amplified into broader weakness in Europe and U.S. bonds as Japanese investors reassess the gains from holding domestic debt over their overseas peers.<blockquote>作为全球债券收益率的支柱，分析师表示，随着日本投资者重新评估持有国内债务相对于海外同行的收益，日本利率上升可能会放大为欧洲和美国债券更广泛的疲软。</blockquote>Meanwhile, the jump in Treasury yields was blamed forrenewed pressure on growth-oriented stocks, which stand to suffer most from higher rates due to lofty valuations. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;slumped more than 3% in Thursday trade, while the more cyclically oriented Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;saw a modest pullback.<blockquote>与此同时，美国国债收益率的上涨被指责为成长型股票带来了新的压力，由于估值较高，这些股票将受到利率上升的最大影响。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数在周四交易中下跌超过3%，而更具周期性的道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500则小幅回调。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-is-dovish-but-bond-yields-are-soaring-what-gives-11616089693?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-is-dovish-but-bond-yields-are-soaring-what-gives-11616089693?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1104563102","content_text":"10-year Treasury yield flirts with 1.75%Only a day after analysts had hailed the victory of the Federal Reserve over traders doubting the central bank’s pledge to keep monetary policy easy for an extended period, bond yields rose sharply on Thursday.The 10-year Treasury note yield was up nearly 10 basis points to around 1.74%, around its highest level since January 2020. Meanwhile, the 30-year bond yield was knocking on the door of 2.5%, near its loftiest level since mid-2019. Bond prices move inversely to yields.Investors are now scrambling to understand what has prompted the renewed volatility in a Treasury market that appeared to have calmed down after Wednesday’s Fed meeting.Here are some of the theories being thrown around:Average Inflation TargetingAfter the meeting, market participants said Powell’s dovish messaging was, in fact, responsible for higher long-term yields.At the postmeeting news-conference, Powell underlined the central bank would stick to its new framework of average inflation targeting, which would in theory only see the central bank contemplate less accommodative policy if inflation managed a sustained overshoot of 2%.By confirming the Fed’s willingness to stand pat, even if inflation saw a temporary surge beyond 2%, investors may be raising the probability the economy will run hot in the next few years without having to worry about the central bank pulling away the market’s punchbowl. In that scenario, long-term bond yields would have little protection against the risk of an inflationary surge.“This new inflation framework is destined for a steeper yield curve,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, in an interview, referring to the spread between short-term and long-term yields.Yet markets were sending mixed messages. Break-even rates that show inflation expectations among holders of Treasury inflation-protected securities indicated investors did not see price pressures persisting over the longer term.The 5-year break-even rate was around 30 basis points higher than the 10-year break-even rate.“The market is pricing in transitory inflation,” said Frank Rybinski, chief macro strategist at Aegon Asset Management, in an interview.CredibilityAmid the Treasury-market selloff, the sharpest rises were seen among medium-term maturities like the 5-year note and 7-year note.As a proxy for interest-rate expectations over the next few years, their surge could also have suggested investors may be doubting the central bank’s pledge to keep policy accommodative for a sustained stretch of time.After all, analysts remarked there was only so much the central bank could do to fight investors’ tendency to look ahead.Given the enormous uncertainty around inflation and economic growth as the economy fully reopens and stimulus makes its way into households’ pockets, it was difficult to know where Fed policy would be in a year’s time when the growth and inflation outlook was just as murky.“This cycle is so much, so fast, and so soon. A lot of things are getting distorted,” said Rybinski.Big in Japan?Yet for all the speculation around whether the Fed was the trigger for the Treasury selloff on Thursday, some analysts were looking abroad for answers.“Global central banks came out overnight with a more hawkish stance,” said Miskin.The Bank of Japan during its two-day meeting was looking to adjust its yield-curve control policy where it keeps long-term interest rates capped but allows them to trade in a tight range, according to a report from Japanese financial newspaper Nikkei.The BOJ’s measures would allow the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to move in a range between 0.25% and negative 0.25%, compared with the current range of 0.20% and negative 0.20%.BofA Global strategists said the tweak would allow “further back-end steepening of the [Japanese government bond] curve, alleviating some of the pressure on financial institutions, and making the BoJ’s easing program more sustainable in the long run.Soon after the report, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield jumped, moving from an intraday low of 0.085% to a high of 0.122%. The 10-year has since steadied at 0.107%, according to Tradeweb data.As an anchor of bond yields across the world, analysts said rising rates in Japan can be amplified into broader weakness in Europe and U.S. bonds as Japanese investors reassess the gains from holding domestic debt over their overseas peers.Meanwhile, the jump in Treasury yields was blamed forrenewed pressure on growth-oriented stocks, which stand to suffer most from higher rates due to lofty valuations. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slumped more than 3% in Thursday trade, while the more cyclically oriented Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 saw a modest pullback.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZNmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1423,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/327412073"}