AndyChiew
2021-03-18
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Three Commodities Set To Boom As The Global Economy Recovers<blockquote>随着全球经济复苏，三种大宗商品将蓬勃发展</blockquote>
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A year after the WHO declared the Covid crisis a pandemic, all the world’s biggest economies are on a rebound trajectory and slated to record significant growth in the current year after major slumps in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>尽管疫苗推出持续混乱，包括供应链限制、审批延迟，以及更令人担忧的是，数十个国家禁止了最便宜、最广泛使用的Covid-19疫苗，但人们越来越乐观地认为，全球经济正在逐步走向全面重新开放。在世卫组织宣布新冠危机为大流行一年后，世界上所有最大的经济体都走上了反弹轨道，并预计在2020年大幅下滑后，今年将录得显着增长。</blockquote></p><p>After shrinking by the largest amount in 74 years, the United States could emerge from the health crisis with its strongest growth in decades. Goldman Sachs says the economy could expand at a brisk annual rate of 7%, the fastest clip ever since Ronald Reagan proclaimed “morning again in America” in 1984.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了74年来最大的萎缩后，美国可能会以几十年来最强劲的增长摆脱健康危机。高盛表示，美国经济可能以每年7%的速度扩张，这是自1984年罗纳德·里根宣布“美国再次迎来早晨”以来的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p>The world’s second largest economy, China, is expected to post 8.4% annualized GDP growth in 2021, rebounding from a much slower 2.3% growth last year.</p><p><blockquote>世界第二大经济体中国预计2021年GDP年化增长率为8.4%，较去年慢得多的2.3%增长反弹。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, the EU is expected to post 3.8% growth after nearly crawling to a standstill in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，欧盟在2020年几乎陷入停滞后，预计将实现3.8%的增长。</blockquote></p><p>The massive monetary and fiscal stimulus packages by the world’s governments appear to have worked to enable the fastest recovery after the March deep slide.</p><p><blockquote>世界各国政府的大规模货币和财政刺激计划似乎在3月份大幅下滑后实现了最快的复苏。</blockquote></p><p>Factories are humming and consumers are spending again, helping to trigger a broad commodity rally thanks to the so-called reflation trade.</p><p><blockquote>工厂运转良好，消费者再次消费，由于所谓的通货再膨胀交易，有助于引发大宗商品的广泛上涨。</blockquote></p><p>In fact, Wall Street is now predicting a newcommodity bull marketthat will rival the oil price spikes of the 1970s or the China-driven boom of the 2000s. Market experts, including Goldman Sachs, believe the commodity boom could rival the last “supercycle” in the early 2000s that powered emergingBRIC economies(Brazil, Russia, India and China).</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街现在预测新的大宗商品牛市将与20世纪70年代的油价飙升或2000年代中国推动的繁荣相媲美。包括高盛在内的市场专家认为，大宗商品繁荣可以与2000年代初为新兴金砖四国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）提供动力的上一次“超级周期”相媲美。</blockquote></p><p>These expectations are supported by the fact that price movement of most commodities has historically been both seasonal and cyclical. Peering at the 10-year charts of leading commodities reveals a clear pattern of mean reversion where prices tend to oscillate backwards and forwards towards their mean or average.</p><p><blockquote>这些预期得到了以下事实的支持：大多数大宗商品的价格变动历来都是季节性和周期性的。查看主要大宗商品的10年图表，可以发现明显的均值回归模式，价格往往会向平均值或平均值来回振荡。</blockquote></p><p>And so far, Wall Street appears to be right on the money with the<b>Bloomberg Commodity Index</b>(BCOM) up 11% in the year-to-date and nearly 40% over the past 52 weeks.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，华尔街似乎是正确的<b>彭博商品指数</b>(BCOM)今年迄今上涨11%，过去52周上涨近40%。</blockquote></p><p>Here are 3 key commodities that can act as an inflation hedge and also as a nice play in the emerging commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>以下是3种关键大宗商品，可以作为通胀对冲工具，也可以在新兴大宗商品超级周期中发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p><b>Bloomberg Commodity Index 12-Month Change</b></p><p><blockquote><b>彭博商品指数12个月变化</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24daeb38dfdea76d5ec319f8ad7d88a1\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Source: Bloomberg</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Oil</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.石油</b></blockquote></p><p>After a historic slump, oil has also been on a tear, up 110% in a year. In a sharp turnaround from last year, the energy sector has emerged as one of the best-performing. Brent crude has been flirting with $70 per barrel, a level it last touched nearly two years ago.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了历史性的暴跌之后，石油价格也在上涨，一年内上涨了110%。与去年相比，能源行业已成为表现最好的行业之一。布伦特原油价格一直徘徊在每桶70美元附近，上次触及这一水平是在近两年前。</blockquote></p><p>The oil rally this year has been spurred by encouraging production discipline includingOPEC+ recently extending most output cuts to Apriland Saudi Arabia agreeing to voluntarily extend its output cut of 1 million barrels per day output cuts as well as the ongoing Covid-19 vaccine rollout that gives hope that a full reopening might not be far off. You can expect to see oil demand considerably in the coming months as more people begin to travel, especially with the EU now launching a“Digital Green Certificate”will facilitate safe and free movement within the bloc for people who have been vaccinated.</p><p><blockquote>今年的油价上涨受到了令人鼓舞的生产纪律的刺激，包括欧佩克+最近将大部分减产期限延长至4月份，沙特阿拉伯同意自愿延长100万桶/日的减产期限，以及正在进行的Covid-19疫苗推广，这给人们带来了希望全面重新开放可能不远了。随着越来越多的人开始旅行，未来几个月石油需求将大幅增加，特别是欧盟现在推出的“数字绿色证书”将促进已接种疫苗的人在欧盟内的安全和自由流动。</blockquote></p><p>Although the rally has lately taken a breather due to concerns that demand continues to be patchy, consumption is roaring back in notable regions including the U.S. A stronger dollar has also been curbing crude’s gains.</p><p><blockquote>尽管由于担心需求仍然不稳定，涨势最近有所喘息，但包括美国在内的著名地区的消费正在强劲回升。美元走强也抑制了原油的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>The hiatus might, however, be temporary with eyes glued on U.S. inventory data when it comes out on Wednesday, which could show the first drop in crude stockpiles since mid-February. The Fed is also expected to release a policy statement later on the same day as attention on the pace of global inflation grows. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has promised to maintain aggressive support of the U.S. economy, the central bank’s quarterly economic forecasts will show how many of his colleagues share his commitment. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold interest rates near zero at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, and keep buying bonds at the current $120 billion monthly pace.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这种中断可能是暂时的，人们将关注周三公布的美国库存数据，该数据可能显示原油库存自2月中旬以来首次下降。随着对全球通胀步伐的关注加剧，预计美联储也将在当天晚些时候发布政策声明。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔承诺将保持对美国经济的积极支持，美联储的季度经济预测将显示有多少同事同意他的承诺。外界普遍预计，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将在周三为期两天的政策会议结束时将利率维持在接近零的水平，并继续以目前每月1200亿美元的速度购买债券。</blockquote></p><p>So the current outlook is largely bullish for oil.</p><p><blockquote>因此，目前的前景在很大程度上看好石油。</blockquote></p><p>Which is just as well: Danielle Shay, director of options at Simpler Trading, has told CNBC that not only can oil perform even better in a reopening economy but can also be really good hedges against inflation.</p><p><blockquote>这也没关系：Simpler Trading期权总监丹妮尔·谢伊(Danielle Shay)告诉CNBC，石油不仅可以在重新开放的经济中表现更好，而且还可以很好地对冲通胀。</blockquote></p><p><b>Related: Biden’s Energy Agenda To Reduce Oil Production And Boost Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>相关：拜登的能源议程旨在减少石油产量并提高价格</b></blockquote></p><p>Indeed, with oil prices having surpassed even the most bullish projections on Wall Street, some punters are now imagining the seemingly impossible. Bank of America saysoil prices could spike over $100/barrelin the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，随着油价甚至超过了华尔街最乐观的预测，一些投资者现在正在想象看似不可能的事情。美国银行表示，未来几年油价可能飙升至100美元/桶以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>2. Copper</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.铜</b></blockquote></p><p>Similarly, Danielle Shay has picked copper as the other commodity that can perform well in a reopening economy and also act as a good hedge against inflation.</p><p><blockquote>同样，丹妮尔·谢伊（Danielle Shay）选择铜作为另一种在经济重新开放时表现良好的商品，也可以很好地对冲通胀。</blockquote></p><p>The price of copper has doubled in the past year to over $9,000 a metric ton for the first time in nine years driven by tight supply and strong demand for the industrial metal.</p><p><blockquote>由于供应紧张和对工业金属的强劲需求，铜价在过去一年中翻了一番，九年来首次超过每吨9,000美元。</blockquote></p><p>Copper is moving closer to an all-time high set in 2011 as investors continue to bet that supply tightness will increase as the world recovers from the pandemic. Spencer Barnes, associate vice-president of mutual fund and ETF strategy at Raymond James Ltd, says that thesis is mostly sound since copper is cyclical and driven by market expansion, and should see a surge in demand given the massive push to reopen the economy and the fiscal stimulus that could spur consumption.</p><p><blockquote>铜价正在接近2011年创下的历史高点，因投资者继续押注，随着全球从疫情中复苏，供应紧张将加剧。Raymond James Ltd共同基金和ETF策略副总裁斯宾塞·巴恩斯(Spencer Barnes)表示，这一论点基本上是合理的，因为铜是周期性的，并且是由市场扩张驱动的，鉴于重新开放经济的巨大推动，需求应该会激增。以及可能刺激消费的财政刺激。</blockquote></p><p>Further fueling the rally is an anticipated ‘green’ shift in the post-COVID economy, which supports higher demand for copper and other base metals since EVs use about 4x more copper than gasoline-powered vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>疫情后经济的预期“绿色”转变进一步推动了涨势，这支持了对铜和其他贱金属的更高需求，因为电动汽车使用的铜大约是汽油动力汽车的4倍。</blockquote></p><p>The International Copper Association estimates that the rapid rise of EVs will raise copper demand in EVs from 185,000 tonnes in 2017 to 1.74 million tonnes by 2027.</p><p><blockquote>国际铜业协会估计，电动汽车的快速崛起将使电动汽车的铜需求从2017年的18.5万吨增加到2027年的174万吨。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5b521914733dd16a77e375aebf1bd5\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Source: International Copper Association</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：国际铜业协会</blockquote></p><p><b>3. Lithium</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.锂</b></blockquote></p><p>Lithium bulls are enjoying their best moment in decades, lithium prices already up 88% YTD thanks to robust demand for cobalt and nickel free EV batteries.</p><p><blockquote>锂多头正在享受几十年来最好的时刻，由于对无钴和无镍电动汽车电池的强劲需求，锂价今年迄今已上涨88%。</blockquote></p><p>Bullish tech markets are rarely without curious dislocations. And right now one of the biggest imbalances can be seen in the huge momentum behind EV stocks such as<b>Tesla Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) and the lithium market, which has remained in bear territory for years now.</p><p><blockquote>看涨的科技市场很少没有奇怪的错位。目前，最大的失衡之一可以从电动汽车股票背后的巨大势头中看出，例如<b>特斯拉公司。</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）和锂市场，该市场多年来一直处于熊市区域。</blockquote></p><p>Over the past couple of years, a cross-section of analysts including Goldman Sachs have tried calling a bottom on lithium prices, reckoning on a significant contraction in supply as persistently low prices limited production of one of the key commodities in the EV powertrain. That has not happened--until now.</p><p><blockquote>过去几年，包括高盛在内的多位分析师都试图预测锂价触底，认为由于持续的低价限制了电动汽车动力系统中关键商品之一的生产，供应将大幅收缩。直到现在，这种情况还没有发生。</blockquote></p><p>Lithium’s moment to shine appears to have finally arrived, thanks to the massive electrification drive and robust demand for electric vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>由于大规模的电气化推动和对电动汽车的强劲需求，锂的大放异彩时刻似乎终于到来了。</blockquote></p><p>Specifically, lithium prices have been on a tear thanks to explosive demand for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，根据Benchmark Mineral Intelligence(BMI)的数据，由于对磷酸铁锂(LFP)电池的爆炸性需求，锂价一直在上涨。</blockquote></p><p>BMI says battery grade lithium carbonate midpoint price (EXW China, ≥99.0% Li2CO3) for mid-March was a good 88% higher since the start of the year to over $12,600 a tonne, the highest level since March 2019.</p><p><blockquote>BMI表示，3月中旬电池级碳酸锂中点价格（中国出厂价，≥99.0%Li2CO3）较年初上涨88%，达到每吨12,600美元以上，为2019年3月以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>Lithium hydroxide prices are up 20% over the timeframe, although a relatively deep discount to carbonate continues to exist.</p><p><blockquote>氢氧化锂价格在此期间上涨了20%，尽管相对于碳酸盐的折扣仍然较大。</blockquote></p><p>Cobalt and nickel free vehicles are proving to be a runaway success.</p><p><blockquote>无钴和无镍汽车被证明是一个巨大的成功。</blockquote></p><p>According to BMI analyst George Miller, “...<i>demand for durable, improved, and low-cost LFP cathode material has become rejuvenated in China – a very similar story to what we saw in lithium’s last price run of 2016 but with a much improved product for the 2020s</i>.”</p><p><blockquote>身体质量指数分析师乔治·米勒表示，“...<i>中国对耐用、改进且低成本的磷酸铁锂正极材料的需求已经恢复——这与我们在2016年锂价格上涨中看到的情况非常相似，但2020年代的产品有了很大改进</i>.”</blockquote></p><p>A year ago,<b>Tesla Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) surprised the electric car industry when it announced some Model 3s made in its Shanghai factory will be equipped with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries.</p><p><blockquote>一年前，<b>特斯拉公司。</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）宣布其上海工厂生产的部分Model 3将配备磷酸铁锂（LFP）电池，令电动汽车行业感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p>In December, only its second full month of sales, Tesla Model 3 55KWh LFP-battery captured 5.9% of the global full electric car market in terms of battery capacity deployed despite not being for sale in the US. Strong demand in Europe saw LFP-powered Model 3s command 46% of all Model 3 sales in January.</p><p><blockquote>12月，特斯拉Model 3 55KWh LFP电池仅是第二个完整月的销售，尽管未在美国销售，但就部署的电池容量而言，仍占据了全球全电动汽车市场5.9%的份额。欧洲的强劲需求使得LFP驱动的Model 3占据了1月份Model 3总销量的46%。</blockquote></p><p>The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is home to over half of the global cobalt reserves and provides over 70% of the total cobalt feedstock production globally. Unfortunately, for many years, human rights groups have highlighted severe human rights issues in cobalt mining operations including child labor, leading to buyers shunning supplies from the region.</p><p><blockquote>刚果民主共和国(DRC)拥有全球一半以上的钴储量，并提供全球钴原料总产量的70%以上。不幸的是，多年来，人权组织一直强调钴开采作业中存在严重的人权问题，包括童工，导致买家回避该地区的供应。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Three Commodities Set To Boom As The Global Economy Recovers<blockquote>随着全球经济复苏，三种大宗商品将蓬勃发展</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThree Commodities Set To Boom As The Global Economy Recovers<blockquote>随着全球经济复苏，三种大宗商品将蓬勃发展</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">OilPrice</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 18:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Despite the ongoing vaccine rollout snafu, including supply chain constraints, delayed approvals and—more worryingly—dozens of countriesbanning the cheapest and most widely available Covid-19 vaccine, there’s growing optimism that the global economy is gradually marching towards a full reopening. A year after the WHO declared the Covid crisis a pandemic, all the world’s biggest economies are on a rebound trajectory and slated to record significant growth in the current year after major slumps in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>尽管疫苗推出持续混乱，包括供应链限制、审批延迟，以及更令人担忧的是，数十个国家禁止了最便宜、最广泛使用的Covid-19疫苗，但人们越来越乐观地认为，全球经济正在逐步走向全面重新开放。在世卫组织宣布新冠危机为大流行一年后，世界上所有最大的经济体都走上了反弹轨道，并预计在2020年大幅下滑后，今年将录得显着增长。</blockquote></p><p>After shrinking by the largest amount in 74 years, the United States could emerge from the health crisis with its strongest growth in decades. Goldman Sachs says the economy could expand at a brisk annual rate of 7%, the fastest clip ever since Ronald Reagan proclaimed “morning again in America” in 1984.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了74年来最大的萎缩后，美国可能会以几十年来最强劲的增长摆脱健康危机。高盛表示，美国经济可能以每年7%的速度扩张，这是自1984年罗纳德·里根宣布“美国再次迎来早晨”以来的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p>The world’s second largest economy, China, is expected to post 8.4% annualized GDP growth in 2021, rebounding from a much slower 2.3% growth last year.</p><p><blockquote>世界第二大经济体中国预计2021年GDP年化增长率为8.4%，较去年慢得多的2.3%增长反弹。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, the EU is expected to post 3.8% growth after nearly crawling to a standstill in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，欧盟在2020年几乎陷入停滞后，预计将实现3.8%的增长。</blockquote></p><p>The massive monetary and fiscal stimulus packages by the world’s governments appear to have worked to enable the fastest recovery after the March deep slide.</p><p><blockquote>世界各国政府的大规模货币和财政刺激计划似乎在3月份大幅下滑后实现了最快的复苏。</blockquote></p><p>Factories are humming and consumers are spending again, helping to trigger a broad commodity rally thanks to the so-called reflation trade.</p><p><blockquote>工厂运转良好，消费者再次消费，由于所谓的通货再膨胀交易，有助于引发大宗商品的广泛上涨。</blockquote></p><p>In fact, Wall Street is now predicting a newcommodity bull marketthat will rival the oil price spikes of the 1970s or the China-driven boom of the 2000s. Market experts, including Goldman Sachs, believe the commodity boom could rival the last “supercycle” in the early 2000s that powered emergingBRIC economies(Brazil, Russia, India and China).</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街现在预测新的大宗商品牛市将与20世纪70年代的油价飙升或2000年代中国推动的繁荣相媲美。包括高盛在内的市场专家认为，大宗商品繁荣可以与2000年代初为新兴金砖四国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）提供动力的上一次“超级周期”相媲美。</blockquote></p><p>These expectations are supported by the fact that price movement of most commodities has historically been both seasonal and cyclical. Peering at the 10-year charts of leading commodities reveals a clear pattern of mean reversion where prices tend to oscillate backwards and forwards towards their mean or average.</p><p><blockquote>这些预期得到了以下事实的支持：大多数大宗商品的价格变动历来都是季节性和周期性的。查看主要大宗商品的10年图表，可以发现明显的均值回归模式，价格往往会向平均值或平均值来回振荡。</blockquote></p><p>And so far, Wall Street appears to be right on the money with the<b>Bloomberg Commodity Index</b>(BCOM) up 11% in the year-to-date and nearly 40% over the past 52 weeks.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，华尔街似乎是正确的<b>彭博商品指数</b>(BCOM)今年迄今上涨11%，过去52周上涨近40%。</blockquote></p><p>Here are 3 key commodities that can act as an inflation hedge and also as a nice play in the emerging commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>以下是3种关键大宗商品，可以作为通胀对冲工具，也可以在新兴大宗商品超级周期中发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p><b>Bloomberg Commodity Index 12-Month Change</b></p><p><blockquote><b>彭博商品指数12个月变化</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24daeb38dfdea76d5ec319f8ad7d88a1\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Source: Bloomberg</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：彭博社</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Oil</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.石油</b></blockquote></p><p>After a historic slump, oil has also been on a tear, up 110% in a year. In a sharp turnaround from last year, the energy sector has emerged as one of the best-performing. Brent crude has been flirting with $70 per barrel, a level it last touched nearly two years ago.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了历史性的暴跌之后，石油价格也在上涨，一年内上涨了110%。与去年相比，能源行业已成为表现最好的行业之一。布伦特原油价格一直徘徊在每桶70美元附近，上次触及这一水平是在近两年前。</blockquote></p><p>The oil rally this year has been spurred by encouraging production discipline includingOPEC+ recently extending most output cuts to Apriland Saudi Arabia agreeing to voluntarily extend its output cut of 1 million barrels per day output cuts as well as the ongoing Covid-19 vaccine rollout that gives hope that a full reopening might not be far off. You can expect to see oil demand considerably in the coming months as more people begin to travel, especially with the EU now launching a“Digital Green Certificate”will facilitate safe and free movement within the bloc for people who have been vaccinated.</p><p><blockquote>今年的油价上涨受到了令人鼓舞的生产纪律的刺激，包括欧佩克+最近将大部分减产期限延长至4月份，沙特阿拉伯同意自愿延长100万桶/日的减产期限，以及正在进行的Covid-19疫苗推广，这给人们带来了希望全面重新开放可能不远了。随着越来越多的人开始旅行，未来几个月石油需求将大幅增加，特别是欧盟现在推出的“数字绿色证书”将促进已接种疫苗的人在欧盟内的安全和自由流动。</blockquote></p><p>Although the rally has lately taken a breather due to concerns that demand continues to be patchy, consumption is roaring back in notable regions including the U.S. A stronger dollar has also been curbing crude’s gains.</p><p><blockquote>尽管由于担心需求仍然不稳定，涨势最近有所喘息，但包括美国在内的著名地区的消费正在强劲回升。美元走强也抑制了原油的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>The hiatus might, however, be temporary with eyes glued on U.S. inventory data when it comes out on Wednesday, which could show the first drop in crude stockpiles since mid-February. The Fed is also expected to release a policy statement later on the same day as attention on the pace of global inflation grows. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has promised to maintain aggressive support of the U.S. economy, the central bank’s quarterly economic forecasts will show how many of his colleagues share his commitment. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold interest rates near zero at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, and keep buying bonds at the current $120 billion monthly pace.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这种中断可能是暂时的，人们将关注周三公布的美国库存数据，该数据可能显示原油库存自2月中旬以来首次下降。随着对全球通胀步伐的关注加剧，预计美联储也将在当天晚些时候发布政策声明。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔承诺将保持对美国经济的积极支持，美联储的季度经济预测将显示有多少同事同意他的承诺。外界普遍预计，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将在周三为期两天的政策会议结束时将利率维持在接近零的水平，并继续以目前每月1200亿美元的速度购买债券。</blockquote></p><p>So the current outlook is largely bullish for oil.</p><p><blockquote>因此，目前的前景在很大程度上看好石油。</blockquote></p><p>Which is just as well: Danielle Shay, director of options at Simpler Trading, has told CNBC that not only can oil perform even better in a reopening economy but can also be really good hedges against inflation.</p><p><blockquote>这也没关系：Simpler Trading期权总监丹妮尔·谢伊(Danielle Shay)告诉CNBC，石油不仅可以在重新开放的经济中表现更好，而且还可以很好地对冲通胀。</blockquote></p><p><b>Related: Biden’s Energy Agenda To Reduce Oil Production And Boost Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>相关：拜登的能源议程旨在减少石油产量并提高价格</b></blockquote></p><p>Indeed, with oil prices having surpassed even the most bullish projections on Wall Street, some punters are now imagining the seemingly impossible. Bank of America saysoil prices could spike over $100/barrelin the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，随着油价甚至超过了华尔街最乐观的预测，一些投资者现在正在想象看似不可能的事情。美国银行表示，未来几年油价可能飙升至100美元/桶以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>2. Copper</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.铜</b></blockquote></p><p>Similarly, Danielle Shay has picked copper as the other commodity that can perform well in a reopening economy and also act as a good hedge against inflation.</p><p><blockquote>同样，丹妮尔·谢伊（Danielle Shay）选择铜作为另一种在经济重新开放时表现良好的商品，也可以很好地对冲通胀。</blockquote></p><p>The price of copper has doubled in the past year to over $9,000 a metric ton for the first time in nine years driven by tight supply and strong demand for the industrial metal.</p><p><blockquote>由于供应紧张和对工业金属的强劲需求，铜价在过去一年中翻了一番，九年来首次超过每吨9,000美元。</blockquote></p><p>Copper is moving closer to an all-time high set in 2011 as investors continue to bet that supply tightness will increase as the world recovers from the pandemic. Spencer Barnes, associate vice-president of mutual fund and ETF strategy at Raymond James Ltd, says that thesis is mostly sound since copper is cyclical and driven by market expansion, and should see a surge in demand given the massive push to reopen the economy and the fiscal stimulus that could spur consumption.</p><p><blockquote>铜价正在接近2011年创下的历史高点，因投资者继续押注，随着全球从疫情中复苏，供应紧张将加剧。Raymond James Ltd共同基金和ETF策略副总裁斯宾塞·巴恩斯(Spencer Barnes)表示，这一论点基本上是合理的，因为铜是周期性的，并且是由市场扩张驱动的，鉴于重新开放经济的巨大推动，需求应该会激增。以及可能刺激消费的财政刺激。</blockquote></p><p>Further fueling the rally is an anticipated ‘green’ shift in the post-COVID economy, which supports higher demand for copper and other base metals since EVs use about 4x more copper than gasoline-powered vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>疫情后经济的预期“绿色”转变进一步推动了涨势，这支持了对铜和其他贱金属的更高需求，因为电动汽车使用的铜大约是汽油动力汽车的4倍。</blockquote></p><p>The International Copper Association estimates that the rapid rise of EVs will raise copper demand in EVs from 185,000 tonnes in 2017 to 1.74 million tonnes by 2027.</p><p><blockquote>国际铜业协会估计，电动汽车的快速崛起将使电动汽车的铜需求从2017年的18.5万吨增加到2027年的174万吨。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5b521914733dd16a77e375aebf1bd5\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Source: International Copper Association</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：国际铜业协会</blockquote></p><p><b>3. Lithium</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.锂</b></blockquote></p><p>Lithium bulls are enjoying their best moment in decades, lithium prices already up 88% YTD thanks to robust demand for cobalt and nickel free EV batteries.</p><p><blockquote>锂多头正在享受几十年来最好的时刻，由于对无钴和无镍电动汽车电池的强劲需求，锂价今年迄今已上涨88%。</blockquote></p><p>Bullish tech markets are rarely without curious dislocations. And right now one of the biggest imbalances can be seen in the huge momentum behind EV stocks such as<b>Tesla Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) and the lithium market, which has remained in bear territory for years now.</p><p><blockquote>看涨的科技市场很少没有奇怪的错位。目前，最大的失衡之一可以从电动汽车股票背后的巨大势头中看出，例如<b>特斯拉公司。</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）和锂市场，该市场多年来一直处于熊市区域。</blockquote></p><p>Over the past couple of years, a cross-section of analysts including Goldman Sachs have tried calling a bottom on lithium prices, reckoning on a significant contraction in supply as persistently low prices limited production of one of the key commodities in the EV powertrain. That has not happened--until now.</p><p><blockquote>过去几年，包括高盛在内的多位分析师都试图预测锂价触底，认为由于持续的低价限制了电动汽车动力系统中关键商品之一的生产，供应将大幅收缩。直到现在，这种情况还没有发生。</blockquote></p><p>Lithium’s moment to shine appears to have finally arrived, thanks to the massive electrification drive and robust demand for electric vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>由于大规模的电气化推动和对电动汽车的强劲需求，锂的大放异彩时刻似乎终于到来了。</blockquote></p><p>Specifically, lithium prices have been on a tear thanks to explosive demand for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，根据Benchmark Mineral Intelligence(BMI)的数据，由于对磷酸铁锂(LFP)电池的爆炸性需求，锂价一直在上涨。</blockquote></p><p>BMI says battery grade lithium carbonate midpoint price (EXW China, ≥99.0% Li2CO3) for mid-March was a good 88% higher since the start of the year to over $12,600 a tonne, the highest level since March 2019.</p><p><blockquote>BMI表示，3月中旬电池级碳酸锂中点价格（中国出厂价，≥99.0%Li2CO3）较年初上涨88%，达到每吨12,600美元以上，为2019年3月以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>Lithium hydroxide prices are up 20% over the timeframe, although a relatively deep discount to carbonate continues to exist.</p><p><blockquote>氢氧化锂价格在此期间上涨了20%，尽管相对于碳酸盐的折扣仍然较大。</blockquote></p><p>Cobalt and nickel free vehicles are proving to be a runaway success.</p><p><blockquote>无钴和无镍汽车被证明是一个巨大的成功。</blockquote></p><p>According to BMI analyst George Miller, “...<i>demand for durable, improved, and low-cost LFP cathode material has become rejuvenated in China – a very similar story to what we saw in lithium’s last price run of 2016 but with a much improved product for the 2020s</i>.”</p><p><blockquote>身体质量指数分析师乔治·米勒表示，“...<i>中国对耐用、改进且低成本的磷酸铁锂正极材料的需求已经恢复——这与我们在2016年锂价格上涨中看到的情况非常相似，但2020年代的产品有了很大改进</i>.”</blockquote></p><p>A year ago,<b>Tesla Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) surprised the electric car industry when it announced some Model 3s made in its Shanghai factory will be equipped with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries.</p><p><blockquote>一年前，<b>特斯拉公司。</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）宣布其上海工厂生产的部分Model 3将配备磷酸铁锂（LFP）电池，令电动汽车行业感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p>In December, only its second full month of sales, Tesla Model 3 55KWh LFP-battery captured 5.9% of the global full electric car market in terms of battery capacity deployed despite not being for sale in the US. Strong demand in Europe saw LFP-powered Model 3s command 46% of all Model 3 sales in January.</p><p><blockquote>12月，特斯拉Model 3 55KWh LFP电池仅是第二个完整月的销售，尽管未在美国销售，但就部署的电池容量而言，仍占据了全球全电动汽车市场5.9%的份额。欧洲的强劲需求使得LFP驱动的Model 3占据了1月份Model 3总销量的46%。</blockquote></p><p>The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is home to over half of the global cobalt reserves and provides over 70% of the total cobalt feedstock production globally. Unfortunately, for many years, human rights groups have highlighted severe human rights issues in cobalt mining operations including child labor, leading to buyers shunning supplies from the region.</p><p><blockquote>刚果民主共和国(DRC)拥有全球一半以上的钴储量，并提供全球钴原料总产量的70%以上。不幸的是，多年来，人权组织一直强调钴开采作业中存在严重的人权问题，包括童工，导致买家回避该地区的供应。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/three-commodities-set-boom-global-220000104.html\">OilPrice</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/three-commodities-set-boom-global-220000104.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134138425","content_text":"Despite the ongoing vaccine rollout snafu, including supply chain constraints, delayed approvals and—more worryingly—dozens of countriesbanning the cheapest and most widely available Covid-19 vaccine, there’s growing optimism that the global economy is gradually marching towards a full reopening. A year after the WHO declared the Covid crisis a pandemic, all the world’s biggest economies are on a rebound trajectory and slated to record significant growth in the current year after major slumps in 2020.After shrinking by the largest amount in 74 years, the United States could emerge from the health crisis with its strongest growth in decades. Goldman Sachs says the economy could expand at a brisk annual rate of 7%, the fastest clip ever since Ronald Reagan proclaimed “morning again in America” in 1984.The world’s second largest economy, China, is expected to post 8.4% annualized GDP growth in 2021, rebounding from a much slower 2.3% growth last year.Meanwhile, the EU is expected to post 3.8% growth after nearly crawling to a standstill in 2020.The massive monetary and fiscal stimulus packages by the world’s governments appear to have worked to enable the fastest recovery after the March deep slide.Factories are humming and consumers are spending again, helping to trigger a broad commodity rally thanks to the so-called reflation trade.In fact, Wall Street is now predicting a newcommodity bull marketthat will rival the oil price spikes of the 1970s or the China-driven boom of the 2000s. Market experts, including Goldman Sachs, believe the commodity boom could rival the last “supercycle” in the early 2000s that powered emergingBRIC economies(Brazil, Russia, India and China).These expectations are supported by the fact that price movement of most commodities has historically been both seasonal and cyclical. Peering at the 10-year charts of leading commodities reveals a clear pattern of mean reversion where prices tend to oscillate backwards and forwards towards their mean or average.And so far, Wall Street appears to be right on the money with theBloomberg Commodity Index(BCOM) up 11% in the year-to-date and nearly 40% over the past 52 weeks.Here are 3 key commodities that can act as an inflation hedge and also as a nice play in the emerging commodity supercycle.Bloomberg Commodity Index 12-Month ChangeSource: Bloomberg1. OilAfter a historic slump, oil has also been on a tear, up 110% in a year. In a sharp turnaround from last year, the energy sector has emerged as one of the best-performing. Brent crude has been flirting with $70 per barrel, a level it last touched nearly two years ago.The oil rally this year has been spurred by encouraging production discipline includingOPEC+ recently extending most output cuts to Apriland Saudi Arabia agreeing to voluntarily extend its output cut of 1 million barrels per day output cuts as well as the ongoing Covid-19 vaccine rollout that gives hope that a full reopening might not be far off. You can expect to see oil demand considerably in the coming months as more people begin to travel, especially with the EU now launching a“Digital Green Certificate”will facilitate safe and free movement within the bloc for people who have been vaccinated.Although the rally has lately taken a breather due to concerns that demand continues to be patchy, consumption is roaring back in notable regions including the U.S. A stronger dollar has also been curbing crude’s gains.The hiatus might, however, be temporary with eyes glued on U.S. inventory data when it comes out on Wednesday, which could show the first drop in crude stockpiles since mid-February. The Fed is also expected to release a policy statement later on the same day as attention on the pace of global inflation grows. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has promised to maintain aggressive support of the U.S. economy, the central bank’s quarterly economic forecasts will show how many of his colleagues share his commitment. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold interest rates near zero at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, and keep buying bonds at the current $120 billion monthly pace.So the current outlook is largely bullish for oil.Which is just as well: Danielle Shay, director of options at Simpler Trading, has told CNBC that not only can oil perform even better in a reopening economy but can also be really good hedges against inflation.Related: Biden’s Energy Agenda To Reduce Oil Production And Boost PricesIndeed, with oil prices having surpassed even the most bullish projections on Wall Street, some punters are now imagining the seemingly impossible. Bank of America saysoil prices could spike over $100/barrelin the coming years.2. CopperSimilarly, Danielle Shay has picked copper as the other commodity that can perform well in a reopening economy and also act as a good hedge against inflation.The price of copper has doubled in the past year to over $9,000 a metric ton for the first time in nine years driven by tight supply and strong demand for the industrial metal.Copper is moving closer to an all-time high set in 2011 as investors continue to bet that supply tightness will increase as the world recovers from the pandemic. Spencer Barnes, associate vice-president of mutual fund and ETF strategy at Raymond James Ltd, says that thesis is mostly sound since copper is cyclical and driven by market expansion, and should see a surge in demand given the massive push to reopen the economy and the fiscal stimulus that could spur consumption.Further fueling the rally is an anticipated ‘green’ shift in the post-COVID economy, which supports higher demand for copper and other base metals since EVs use about 4x more copper than gasoline-powered vehicles.The International Copper Association estimates that the rapid rise of EVs will raise copper demand in EVs from 185,000 tonnes in 2017 to 1.74 million tonnes by 2027.Source: International Copper Association3. LithiumLithium bulls are enjoying their best moment in decades, lithium prices already up 88% YTD thanks to robust demand for cobalt and nickel free EV batteries.Bullish tech markets are rarely without curious dislocations. And right now one of the biggest imbalances can be seen in the huge momentum behind EV stocks such asTesla Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA) and the lithium market, which has remained in bear territory for years now.Over the past couple of years, a cross-section of analysts including Goldman Sachs have tried calling a bottom on lithium prices, reckoning on a significant contraction in supply as persistently low prices limited production of one of the key commodities in the EV powertrain. That has not happened--until now.Lithium’s moment to shine appears to have finally arrived, thanks to the massive electrification drive and robust demand for electric vehicles.Specifically, lithium prices have been on a tear thanks to explosive demand for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI).BMI says battery grade lithium carbonate midpoint price (EXW China, ≥99.0% Li2CO3) for mid-March was a good 88% higher since the start of the year to over $12,600 a tonne, the highest level since March 2019.Lithium hydroxide prices are up 20% over the timeframe, although a relatively deep discount to carbonate continues to exist.Cobalt and nickel free vehicles are proving to be a runaway success.According to BMI analyst George Miller, “...demand for durable, improved, and low-cost LFP cathode material has become rejuvenated in China – a very similar story to what we saw in lithium’s last price run of 2016 but with a much improved product for the 2020s.”A year ago,Tesla Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA) surprised the electric car industry when it announced some Model 3s made in its Shanghai factory will be equipped with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries.In December, only its second full month of sales, Tesla Model 3 55KWh LFP-battery captured 5.9% of the global full electric car market in terms of battery capacity deployed despite not being for sale in the US. Strong demand in Europe saw LFP-powered Model 3s command 46% of all Model 3 sales in January.The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is home to over half of the global cobalt reserves and provides over 70% of the total cobalt feedstock production globally. Unfortunately, for many years, human rights groups have highlighted severe human rights issues in cobalt mining operations including child labor, leading to buyers shunning supplies from the region.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":533,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/327138459"}
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