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2021-03-14

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Is there a new commodity supercycle? Maybe not, these analysts say.<blockquote>有新的大宗商品超级周期吗？这些分析师说，也许不会。</blockquote>

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Maybe not, these analysts say.<blockquote>有新的大宗商品超级周期吗？这些分析师说，也许不会。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170039440","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Commodity prices — across food, energy and metals — are undeniably rising.\nOil is up 95% from its Ma","content":"Commodity prices — across food, energy and metals — are undeniably rising.<blockquote>不可否认，包括食品、能源和金属在内的大宗商品价格正在上涨。</blockquote> Oil&nbsp;is up 95% from its March 2020 lows, and copper&nbsp;has surged 91% from its depths. Corn futures&nbsp;have gained 47% over the last 12 months.<blockquote>油价较 2020 年 3 月低点上涨 95%，铜价较低点飙升 91%。玉米期货在过去12个月里上涨了47%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a5a59c1e1676673dbdf8f33209e137\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"658\"><blockquote></blockquote> That has led to talk of a supercycle, an upward price cycle of commodities lasting decades, and outlasting the typical economic cycle. There have generally been thought to have been four supercycles in the last 100 years, with the last one starting in 1996 and ending in 2008.<blockquote>这引发了人们对超级周期的讨论，即持续数十年的大宗商品价格上涨周期，持续时间超过了典型的经济周期。人们普遍认为在过去的100年里有四个超级周期，最后一个从1996年开始，到2008年结束。</blockquote> There have been analysts, including highly regarded JPMorgan quantitative strategist Marko Kolanovic,who say the beginning of a fifth supercycle has started.<blockquote>包括备受推崇的摩根大通量化策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇在内的分析师表示，第五个超级周期已经开始。</blockquote> A few broker notes this week have pushed back on that idea. Analysts at Liberum Capital led by Tom Price aren’t buying the supercycle idea. “Rising consumption rates across Asia, the Americas and Europe are probably only normalizing from their lockdown lows. There is no evidence that they are now exceeding levels reported pre-virus,” said Price.<blockquote>本周的一些券商报告反驳了这一想法。汤姆-普莱斯（Tom Price）领导的自由资本（Liberum Capital）分析师并不认同超级周期的想法。“亚洲、美洲和欧洲不断上升的消费率可能只是从封锁期间的低点恢复正常。没有证据表明它们现在已经超过了病毒爆发前的报告水平，”普莱斯说。</blockquote> Importantly, there aren’t reports of major materials-intensive projects being rolled out in any of the major economies. Fast-growing China, in fact,is talking of withdrawing stimulus.<blockquote>重要的是，目前还没有任何主要经济体推出重大材料密集型项目的报道。事实上，快速增长的中国正在谈论取消刺激措施。</blockquote> HSBC’s Paul Bloxham, the chief economist for Australia, New Zealand and global commodities, also isn’t buying the supercycle talk.<blockquote>汇丰银行澳大利亚、新西兰和全球大宗商品首席经济学家保罗-布洛克瑟姆（Paul Bloxham）也不相信超级周期的说法。</blockquote> Bloxham points out that as economies reopen, spending may shift back to services from the goods — like personal electronics — that require metals. He also noted that China is in a different stage of development.<blockquote>布洛克瑟姆指出，随着经济重新开放，支出可能会从需要金属的商品（例如个人电子产品）转向服务。他还指出，中国正处于一个不同的发展阶段。</blockquote> But what of infrastructure spending plans from the European Union, and proposals from the Biden administration? “Both of these are substantial and could clearly underpin demand for metals,” he said. But, much of the demand for metals used in developed-market construction comes from recycled materials.<blockquote>但是欧盟的基础设施支出计划和拜登政府的提议呢？“他说：”这两个因素都很大，显然可以支撑对金属的需求。但是，发达市场建筑中使用的金属的大部分需求来自回收材料。</blockquote> “The key exception to this is likely to be increased electrification, particularly of motor vehicles, which requires new electrical networks. We see the battery-related commodities, including copper, as likely to benefit,” he said.<blockquote>“主要的例外可能是电气化程度的提高，尤其是机动车辆的电气化程度，这需要新的电气网络。我们认为包括铜在内的电池相关商品可能会受益，”他说。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is there a new commodity supercycle? Maybe not, these analysts say.<blockquote>有新的大宗商品超级周期吗？这些分析师说，也许不会。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs there a new commodity supercycle? Maybe not, these analysts say.<blockquote>有新的大宗商品超级周期吗？这些分析师说，也许不会。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-03-12 21:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nCommodity prices — across food, energy and metals — are undeniably rising.<blockquote>不可否认，包括食品、能源和金属在内的大宗商品价格正在上涨。</blockquote> Oil&nbsp;is up 95% from its March 2020 lows, and copper&nbsp;has surged 91% from its depths. Corn futures&nbsp;have gained 47% over the last 12 months.<blockquote>油价较 2020 年 3 月低点上涨 95%，铜价较低点飙升 91%。玉米期货在过去12个月里上涨了47%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a5a59c1e1676673dbdf8f33209e137\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"658\"><blockquote></blockquote> That has led to talk of a supercycle, an upward price cycle of commodities lasting decades, and outlasting the typical economic cycle. There have generally been thought to have been four supercycles in the last 100 years, with the last one starting in 1996 and ending in 2008.<blockquote>这引发了人们对超级周期的讨论，即持续数十年的大宗商品价格上涨周期，持续时间超过了典型的经济周期。人们普遍认为在过去的100年里有四个超级周期，最后一个从1996年开始，到2008年结束。</blockquote> There have been analysts, including highly regarded JPMorgan quantitative strategist Marko Kolanovic,who say the beginning of a fifth supercycle has started.<blockquote>包括备受推崇的摩根大通量化策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇在内的分析师表示，第五个超级周期已经开始。</blockquote> A few broker notes this week have pushed back on that idea. Analysts at Liberum Capital led by Tom Price aren’t buying the supercycle idea. “Rising consumption rates across Asia, the Americas and Europe are probably only normalizing from their lockdown lows. There is no evidence that they are now exceeding levels reported pre-virus,” said Price.<blockquote>本周的一些券商报告反驳了这一想法。汤姆-普莱斯（Tom Price）领导的自由资本（Liberum Capital）分析师并不认同超级周期的想法。“亚洲、美洲和欧洲不断上升的消费率可能只是从封锁期间的低点恢复正常。没有证据表明它们现在已经超过了病毒爆发前的报告水平，”普莱斯说。</blockquote> Importantly, there aren’t reports of major materials-intensive projects being rolled out in any of the major economies. Fast-growing China, in fact,is talking of withdrawing stimulus.<blockquote>重要的是，目前还没有任何主要经济体推出重大材料密集型项目的报道。事实上，快速增长的中国正在谈论取消刺激措施。</blockquote> HSBC’s Paul Bloxham, the chief economist for Australia, New Zealand and global commodities, also isn’t buying the supercycle talk.<blockquote>汇丰银行澳大利亚、新西兰和全球大宗商品首席经济学家保罗-布洛克瑟姆（Paul Bloxham）也不相信超级周期的说法。</blockquote> Bloxham points out that as economies reopen, spending may shift back to services from the goods — like personal electronics — that require metals. He also noted that China is in a different stage of development.<blockquote>布洛克瑟姆指出，随着经济重新开放，支出可能会从需要金属的商品（例如个人电子产品）转向服务。他还指出，中国正处于一个不同的发展阶段。</blockquote> But what of infrastructure spending plans from the European Union, and proposals from the Biden administration? “Both of these are substantial and could clearly underpin demand for metals,” he said. But, much of the demand for metals used in developed-market construction comes from recycled materials.<blockquote>但是欧盟的基础设施支出计划和拜登政府的提议呢？“他说：”这两个因素都很大，显然可以支撑对金属的需求。但是，发达市场建筑中使用的金属的大部分需求来自回收材料。</blockquote> “The key exception to this is likely to be increased electrification, particularly of motor vehicles, which requires new electrical networks. We see the battery-related commodities, including copper, as likely to benefit,” he said.<blockquote>“主要的例外可能是电气化程度的提高，尤其是机动车辆的电气化程度，这需要新的电气网络。我们认为包括铜在内的电池相关商品可能会受益，”他说。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-there-a-new-commodity-supercycle-why-2-analysts-say-no-11615467520?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-there-a-new-commodity-supercycle-why-2-analysts-say-no-11615467520?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1170039440","content_text":"Commodity prices — across food, energy and metals — are undeniably rising.\nOil is up 95% from its March 2020 lows, and copper has surged 91% from its depths. Corn futures have gained 47% over the last 12 months.\n\nThat has led to talk of a supercycle, an upward price cycle of commodities lasting decades, and outlasting the typical economic cycle. There have generally been thought to have been four supercycles in the last 100 years, with the last one starting in 1996 and ending in 2008.\nThere have been analysts, including highly regarded JPMorgan quantitative strategist Marko Kolanovic,who say the beginning of a fifth supercycle has started.\nA few broker notes this week have pushed back on that idea. Analysts at Liberum Capital led by Tom Price aren’t buying the supercycle idea. “Rising consumption rates across Asia, the Americas and Europe are probably only normalizing from their lockdown lows. There is no evidence that they are now exceeding levels reported pre-virus,” said Price.\nImportantly, there aren’t reports of major materials-intensive projects being rolled out in any of the major economies. Fast-growing China, in fact,is talking of withdrawing stimulus.\nHSBC’s Paul Bloxham, the chief economist for Australia, New Zealand and global commodities, also isn’t buying the supercycle talk.\nBloxham points out that as economies reopen, spending may shift back to services from the goods — like personal electronics — that require metals. He also noted that China is in a different stage of development.\nBut what of infrastructure spending plans from the European Union, and proposals from the Biden administration? “Both of these are substantial and could clearly underpin demand for metals,” he said. But, much of the demand for metals used in developed-market construction comes from recycled materials.\n“The key exception to this is likely to be increased electrification, particularly of motor vehicles, which requires new electrical networks. We see the battery-related commodities, including copper, as likely to benefit,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1510,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":24,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/326418321"}