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2021-03-16

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Biden's stimulus will keep America's economy humming for years, Goldman Sachs predicts<blockquote>高盛预测，拜登的刺激计划将使美国经济持续多年蓬勃发展</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":325953198,"tweetId":"325953198","gmtCreate":1615859024114,"gmtModify":1703494074129,"author":{"id":3577348611873740,"idStr":"3577348611873740","authorId":3577348611873740,"authorIdStr":"3577348611873740","name":"Limmy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>👍🏻</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>👍🏻</body></html>","text":"👍🏻","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325953198","repostId":1167584552,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167584552","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615857181,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167584552?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-16 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Biden's stimulus will keep America's economy humming for years, Goldman Sachs predicts<blockquote>高盛预测，拜登的刺激计划将使美国经济持续多年蓬勃发展</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167584552","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business)- President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion economic rescue is so massive that econ","content":"New York (CNN Business)-&nbsp;President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion economic rescue is so massive that economists are marking up their growth forecasts for not just this year, but next as well.<blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）——乔·拜登总统1.9万亿美元的经济救助规模如此之大，以至于经济学家不仅上调了今年的增长预测，还上调了明年的增长预测。</blockquote> Goldman Sachs predicts the US economy will rebound sharply&nbsp;from the pandemic, registering&nbsp;China-like GDP growth&nbsp;of 7% in 2021. That would be the fastest pace for the United States since 1984 under Ronald Reagan.<blockquote>高盛预测，美国经济将从疫情大幅反弹，2021年GDP增长7%，与中国类似。这将是美国自1984年罗纳德·里根执政以来最快的步伐。</blockquote> Over the weekend, Goldman Sachs, citing the&nbsp;larger-than-expected American Rescue Plan,also bumped up its 2022 growth forecast to 5.1%. That is up from the bank's previous prediction of 4.5% and well above the consensus of 3.8%.<blockquote>周末，高盛以美国救援计划规模超预期为由，也将2022年增长预期上调至5.1%。这高于央行此前预测的4.5%，也远高于市场普遍预期的3.8%。</blockquote> If this optimistic view proves accurate, it will translate to stronger job prospects for Americans. Goldman Sachs improved its labor market outlook, predicting the unemployment rate will plunge from the&nbsp;current level of 6.2%to just 4% by the end of this year. The jobless rate is projected to keep tumbling and match the&nbsp;50-year low of 3.5%&nbsp;by the end of 2022.<blockquote>如果这种乐观的观点被证明是准确的，它将转化为美国人更强劲的就业前景。高盛改善了劳动力市场前景，预测失业率将从目前的6.2%水平暴跌至今年年底的4%。预计失业率将继续下降，到2022年底将达到3.5%的50年低点。</blockquote> Taken together, the upbeat forecasts underscore the profound impact of the massive wave of stimulus approved by Congress and the White House. The most surprising part of what emerged from Washington is that Biden, armed with only narrow majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives, got almost everything he wanted.<blockquote>综上所述，乐观的预测凸显了国会和白宫批准的大规模刺激计划的深远影响。从华盛顿出现的最令人惊讶的部分是，拜登在参众两院仅获得微弱多数，几乎得到了他想要的一切。</blockquote> \"The final bill was closer to the original Biden proposal than we expected,\" Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a report.<blockquote>高盛经济学家在一份报告中写道：“最终法案比我们预期的更接近拜登最初的提议。”</blockquote> The Wall Street bank previously estimated Congress would enact a smaller stimulus package totaling about $1.5 trillion. And before Democrats swept the Georgia Senate races, Goldman Sachs was modeling for just $750 billion in fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>这家华尔街银行此前估计，国会将颁布总额约为1.5万亿美元的规模较小的刺激计划。在民主党横扫佐治亚州参议员竞选之前，高盛的财政刺激计划仅为7500亿美元。</blockquote> The American Rescue Plan includes&nbsp;$1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, $350 billion in state and local aid and larger child tax credits. Biden's efforts to include a $15 federal minimum wage were unsuccessful.<blockquote>美国救援计划包括1400美元的刺激支票、增加的失业福利、3500亿美元的州和地方援助以及更大的儿童税收抵免。拜登将15美元联邦最低工资纳入其中的努力没有成功。</blockquote> 'Springtime in America'<blockquote>“美国的春天”</blockquote> Beyond the stimulus package, economists are more upbeat on the economy because of progress in defeating the pandemic.<blockquote>除了刺激计划之外，经济学家对经济更加乐观，因为在战胜疫情方面取得了进展。</blockquote> The rollout of vaccines has accelerated since the start of the year and many governors have felt confident enough to ease health restrictions that have crushed restaurants, movie theaters and entertainment venues. US airline traffic is also gathering momentum, with more people traveling by air over the past four days than in any four-day period since the start of the pandemic.<blockquote>自今年年初以来，疫苗的推广速度加快，许多州长有足够的信心放松对餐馆、电影院和娱乐场所的健康限制。美国航空运输量也在增长，过去四天乘飞机旅行的人数比疫情开始以来的任何四天都多。</blockquote> \"President Reagan famously ran on it being \"Morning in America\" and we can't help but feel it is Springtime in America,\" Raymond James strategists wrote in a note Monday. \"It feels like we are on the cusp of leaving a long dark winter of Covid.\"<blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯策略师周一在一份报告中写道：“里根总统以‘美国的早晨’而闻名，我们不禁感觉现在是美国的春天。”“感觉我们正处于离开新冠疫情漫长黑暗冬天的风口浪尖。”</blockquote> Meanwhile, there are signs that Washington will not rush to remove some of its support for the economy.<blockquote>与此同时，有迹象表明，华盛顿不会急于取消对经济的部分支持。</blockquote> Goldman Sachs is now expecting stronger fiscal support beyond 2021. Specifically, the bank now assumes Congress will extend the larger child tax credit beyond its expiration at the end of this year and continue providing expanded unemployment insurance eligibility and benefit duration through 2022.<blockquote>高盛目前预计2021年后将提供更强有力的财政支持。具体来说，该银行现在假设国会将把更大的儿童税收抵免延长到今年年底到期之后，并继续提供延长的失业保险资格和福利期限，直至2022年。</blockquote> Hiring rebound in schools<blockquote>学校招聘反弹</blockquote> Another reason for optimism: Uncle Sam is rescuing state and local governments. And that in turn should help repair shrinking municipal payrolls.<blockquote>另一个乐观的理由是：山姆大叔正在拯救州和地方政府。这反过来应该有助于修复不断萎缩的市政工资。</blockquote> State and local governments shed a staggering 1.3 million jobs in 2020, outpacing the losses during the Great Recession, and few of them have returned, according to Goldman Sachs. The vast majority of those&nbsp;job losses are linked to closed schools.<blockquote>根据高盛的数据，州和地方政府在2020年裁员130万人，超过了大衰退期间的损失，而且很少有人回来。绝大多数失业与学校关闭有关。</blockquote> But Washington learned a tough lesson from last decade, when hurting state and local governments took many years to recover from the Great Recession. Government hiring remained weak and that weighed on the overall recovery.<blockquote>但华盛顿从过去十年中吸取了惨痛的教训，当时受伤的州和地方政府需要很多年才能从大衰退中恢复过来。政府招聘仍然疲软，这拖累了整体复苏。</blockquote> By contrast, over the past year Washington has approved a stunning $800 billion in aid and education funds for state and local governments. That's why Goldman Sachs expects at least two-thirds of the state and local jobs lost during the pandemic to return by the time schools open in September — bolstering payrolls by 900,000 jobs by the end of this third quarter.<blockquote>相比之下，在过去的一年里，华盛顿为州和地方政府批准了惊人的8000亿美元的援助和教育基金。这就是为什么高盛预计，到9月份学校开学时，至少三分之二在疫情期间失去的州和地方工作岗位将恢复——到第三季度末，就业岗位将增加90万个。</blockquote> Inflation jitters<blockquote>通胀紧张</blockquote> All of this spending from Washington has&nbsp;raised concerns on Wall Street&nbsp;that the era of soft inflation and rock-bottom interest rates could soon be over. Treasury yields have spiked in recent weeks on&nbsp;inflation fears&nbsp;and further increases&nbsp;could make stocks look less attractive compared with boring bonds.<blockquote>华盛顿的所有这些支出引发了华尔街的担忧，即软通胀和最低利率的时代可能很快就会结束。由于通胀担忧，美国国债收益率最近几周飙升，与无聊的债券相比，进一步上涨可能会使股票看起来不那么有吸引力。</blockquote> Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell&nbsp;will seek to reassure investors this week&nbsp;that the US central bank is in no rush to end its bond purchases, let alone raise interest rates. Powell does not want a repeat of the 2013 \"taper tantrum,\" when investors freaked out because the Fed said it would slowly dial back its bond purchases.<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本周将寻求向投资者保证，美联储并不急于结束债券购买，更不用说加息了。鲍威尔不希望2013年的“缩减恐慌”重演，当时投资者因美联储表示将缓慢缩减债券购买规模而感到恐慌。</blockquote> \"Eventually, the bond market has to adjust to a new reality of a recovered economy and it may well throw a tantrum as it does so,\" David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds, wrote in a note to clients Monday.<blockquote>摩根大通基金首席全球策略师大卫·凯利周一在给客户的一份报告中写道：“最终，债券市场必须适应经济复苏的新现实，而且在这样做的时候很可能会发脾气。”</blockquote> However, Kelly thinks Powell and the Fed should just rip off the band-aid and prepare investors for higher rates ahead.<blockquote>然而，凯利认为鲍威尔和美联储应该撕掉创可贴，让投资者为未来更高的利率做好准备。</blockquote> \"As a parent, it is better to stand your ground and endure the tantrums of a 4-year-old,\" he said, \"rather than always give in and later face the more destructive tantrums of a teenager.\"<blockquote>“作为父母，最好坚持自己的立场，忍受4岁孩子的发脾气，”他说，“而不是总是屈服，然后面对青少年更具破坏性的发脾气。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden's stimulus will keep America's economy humming for years, Goldman Sachs predicts<blockquote>高盛预测，拜登的刺激计划将使美国经济持续多年蓬勃发展</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden's stimulus will keep America's economy humming for years, Goldman Sachs predicts<blockquote>高盛预测，拜登的刺激计划将使美国经济持续多年蓬勃发展</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nCNN Business2021-03-16 09:13\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNew York (CNN Business)-&nbsp;President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion economic rescue is so massive that economists are marking up their growth forecasts for not just this year, but next as well.<blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）——乔·拜登总统1.9万亿美元的经济救助规模如此之大，以至于经济学家不仅上调了今年的增长预测，还上调了明年的增长预测。</blockquote> Goldman Sachs predicts the US economy will rebound sharply&nbsp;from the pandemic, registering&nbsp;China-like GDP growth&nbsp;of 7% in 2021. That would be the fastest pace for the United States since 1984 under Ronald Reagan.<blockquote>高盛预测，美国经济将从疫情大幅反弹，2021年GDP增长7%，与中国类似。这将是美国自1984年罗纳德·里根执政以来最快的步伐。</blockquote> Over the weekend, Goldman Sachs, citing the&nbsp;larger-than-expected American Rescue Plan,also bumped up its 2022 growth forecast to 5.1%. That is up from the bank's previous prediction of 4.5% and well above the consensus of 3.8%.<blockquote>周末，高盛以美国救援计划规模超预期为由，也将2022年增长预期上调至5.1%。这高于央行此前预测的4.5%，也远高于市场普遍预期的3.8%。</blockquote> If this optimistic view proves accurate, it will translate to stronger job prospects for Americans. Goldman Sachs improved its labor market outlook, predicting the unemployment rate will plunge from the&nbsp;current level of 6.2%to just 4% by the end of this year. The jobless rate is projected to keep tumbling and match the&nbsp;50-year low of 3.5%&nbsp;by the end of 2022.<blockquote>如果这种乐观的观点被证明是准确的，它将转化为美国人更强劲的就业前景。高盛改善了劳动力市场前景，预测失业率将从目前的6.2%水平暴跌至今年年底的4%。预计失业率将继续下降，到2022年底将达到3.5%的50年低点。</blockquote> Taken together, the upbeat forecasts underscore the profound impact of the massive wave of stimulus approved by Congress and the White House. The most surprising part of what emerged from Washington is that Biden, armed with only narrow majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives, got almost everything he wanted.<blockquote>综上所述，乐观的预测凸显了国会和白宫批准的大规模刺激计划的深远影响。从华盛顿出现的最令人惊讶的部分是，拜登在参众两院仅获得微弱多数，几乎得到了他想要的一切。</blockquote> \"The final bill was closer to the original Biden proposal than we expected,\" Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a report.<blockquote>高盛经济学家在一份报告中写道：“最终法案比我们预期的更接近拜登最初的提议。”</blockquote> The Wall Street bank previously estimated Congress would enact a smaller stimulus package totaling about $1.5 trillion. And before Democrats swept the Georgia Senate races, Goldman Sachs was modeling for just $750 billion in fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>这家华尔街银行此前估计，国会将颁布总额约为1.5万亿美元的规模较小的刺激计划。在民主党横扫佐治亚州参议员竞选之前，高盛的财政刺激计划仅为7500亿美元。</blockquote> The American Rescue Plan includes&nbsp;$1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, $350 billion in state and local aid and larger child tax credits. Biden's efforts to include a $15 federal minimum wage were unsuccessful.<blockquote>美国救援计划包括1400美元的刺激支票、增加的失业福利、3500亿美元的州和地方援助以及更大的儿童税收抵免。拜登将15美元联邦最低工资纳入其中的努力没有成功。</blockquote> 'Springtime in America'<blockquote>“美国的春天”</blockquote> Beyond the stimulus package, economists are more upbeat on the economy because of progress in defeating the pandemic.<blockquote>除了刺激计划之外，经济学家对经济更加乐观，因为在战胜疫情方面取得了进展。</blockquote> The rollout of vaccines has accelerated since the start of the year and many governors have felt confident enough to ease health restrictions that have crushed restaurants, movie theaters and entertainment venues. US airline traffic is also gathering momentum, with more people traveling by air over the past four days than in any four-day period since the start of the pandemic.<blockquote>自今年年初以来，疫苗的推广速度加快，许多州长有足够的信心放松对餐馆、电影院和娱乐场所的健康限制。美国航空运输量也在增长，过去四天乘飞机旅行的人数比疫情开始以来的任何四天都多。</blockquote> \"President Reagan famously ran on it being \"Morning in America\" and we can't help but feel it is Springtime in America,\" Raymond James strategists wrote in a note Monday. \"It feels like we are on the cusp of leaving a long dark winter of Covid.\"<blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯策略师周一在一份报告中写道：“里根总统以‘美国的早晨’而闻名，我们不禁感觉现在是美国的春天。”“感觉我们正处于离开新冠疫情漫长黑暗冬天的风口浪尖。”</blockquote> Meanwhile, there are signs that Washington will not rush to remove some of its support for the economy.<blockquote>与此同时，有迹象表明，华盛顿不会急于取消对经济的部分支持。</blockquote> Goldman Sachs is now expecting stronger fiscal support beyond 2021. Specifically, the bank now assumes Congress will extend the larger child tax credit beyond its expiration at the end of this year and continue providing expanded unemployment insurance eligibility and benefit duration through 2022.<blockquote>高盛目前预计2021年后将提供更强有力的财政支持。具体来说，该银行现在假设国会将把更大的儿童税收抵免延长到今年年底到期之后，并继续提供延长的失业保险资格和福利期限，直至2022年。</blockquote> Hiring rebound in schools<blockquote>学校招聘反弹</blockquote> Another reason for optimism: Uncle Sam is rescuing state and local governments. And that in turn should help repair shrinking municipal payrolls.<blockquote>另一个乐观的理由是：山姆大叔正在拯救州和地方政府。这反过来应该有助于修复不断萎缩的市政工资。</blockquote> State and local governments shed a staggering 1.3 million jobs in 2020, outpacing the losses during the Great Recession, and few of them have returned, according to Goldman Sachs. The vast majority of those&nbsp;job losses are linked to closed schools.<blockquote>根据高盛的数据，州和地方政府在2020年裁员130万人，超过了大衰退期间的损失，而且很少有人回来。绝大多数失业与学校关闭有关。</blockquote> But Washington learned a tough lesson from last decade, when hurting state and local governments took many years to recover from the Great Recession. Government hiring remained weak and that weighed on the overall recovery.<blockquote>但华盛顿从过去十年中吸取了惨痛的教训，当时受伤的州和地方政府需要很多年才能从大衰退中恢复过来。政府招聘仍然疲软，这拖累了整体复苏。</blockquote> By contrast, over the past year Washington has approved a stunning $800 billion in aid and education funds for state and local governments. That's why Goldman Sachs expects at least two-thirds of the state and local jobs lost during the pandemic to return by the time schools open in September — bolstering payrolls by 900,000 jobs by the end of this third quarter.<blockquote>相比之下，在过去的一年里，华盛顿为州和地方政府批准了惊人的8000亿美元的援助和教育基金。这就是为什么高盛预计，到9月份学校开学时，至少三分之二在疫情期间失去的州和地方工作岗位将恢复——到第三季度末，就业岗位将增加90万个。</blockquote> Inflation jitters<blockquote>通胀紧张</blockquote> All of this spending from Washington has&nbsp;raised concerns on Wall Street&nbsp;that the era of soft inflation and rock-bottom interest rates could soon be over. Treasury yields have spiked in recent weeks on&nbsp;inflation fears&nbsp;and further increases&nbsp;could make stocks look less attractive compared with boring bonds.<blockquote>华盛顿的所有这些支出引发了华尔街的担忧，即软通胀和最低利率的时代可能很快就会结束。由于通胀担忧，美国国债收益率最近几周飙升，与无聊的债券相比，进一步上涨可能会使股票看起来不那么有吸引力。</blockquote> Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell&nbsp;will seek to reassure investors this week&nbsp;that the US central bank is in no rush to end its bond purchases, let alone raise interest rates. Powell does not want a repeat of the 2013 \"taper tantrum,\" when investors freaked out because the Fed said it would slowly dial back its bond purchases.<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本周将寻求向投资者保证，美联储并不急于结束债券购买，更不用说加息了。鲍威尔不希望2013年的“缩减恐慌”重演，当时投资者因美联储表示将缓慢缩减债券购买规模而感到恐慌。</blockquote> \"Eventually, the bond market has to adjust to a new reality of a recovered economy and it may well throw a tantrum as it does so,\" David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds, wrote in a note to clients Monday.<blockquote>摩根大通基金首席全球策略师大卫·凯利周一在给客户的一份报告中写道：“最终，债券市场必须适应经济复苏的新现实，而且在这样做的时候很可能会发脾气。”</blockquote> However, Kelly thinks Powell and the Fed should just rip off the band-aid and prepare investors for higher rates ahead.<blockquote>然而，凯利认为鲍威尔和美联储应该撕掉创可贴，让投资者为未来更高的利率做好准备。</blockquote> \"As a parent, it is better to stand your ground and endure the tantrums of a 4-year-old,\" he said, \"rather than always give in and later face the more destructive tantrums of a teenager.\"<blockquote>“作为父母，最好坚持自己的立场，忍受4岁孩子的发脾气，”他说，“而不是总是屈服，然后面对青少年更具破坏性的发脾气。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/15/economy/stimulus-economy-biden-2022/index.html\">CNN Business</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/15/economy/stimulus-economy-biden-2022/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167584552","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)- President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion economic rescue is so massive that economists are marking up their growth forecasts for not just this year, but next as well.\nGoldman Sachs predicts the US economy will rebound sharply from the pandemic, registering China-like GDP growth of 7% in 2021. That would be the fastest pace for the United States since 1984 under Ronald Reagan.\nOver the weekend, Goldman Sachs, citing the larger-than-expected American Rescue Plan,also bumped up its 2022 growth forecast to 5.1%. That is up from the bank's previous prediction of 4.5% and well above the consensus of 3.8%.\nIf this optimistic view proves accurate, it will translate to stronger job prospects for Americans. Goldman Sachs improved its labor market outlook, predicting the unemployment rate will plunge from the current level of 6.2%to just 4% by the end of this year. The jobless rate is projected to keep tumbling and match the 50-year low of 3.5% by the end of 2022.\nTaken together, the upbeat forecasts underscore the profound impact of the massive wave of stimulus approved by Congress and the White House. The most surprising part of what emerged from Washington is that Biden, armed with only narrow majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives, got almost everything he wanted.\n\"The final bill was closer to the original Biden proposal than we expected,\" Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a report.\nThe Wall Street bank previously estimated Congress would enact a smaller stimulus package totaling about $1.5 trillion. And before Democrats swept the Georgia Senate races, Goldman Sachs was modeling for just $750 billion in fiscal stimulus.\nThe American Rescue Plan includes $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, $350 billion in state and local aid and larger child tax credits. Biden's efforts to include a $15 federal minimum wage were unsuccessful.\n'Springtime in America'\nBeyond the stimulus package, economists are more upbeat on the economy because of progress in defeating the pandemic.\nThe rollout of vaccines has accelerated since the start of the year and many governors have felt confident enough to ease health restrictions that have crushed restaurants, movie theaters and entertainment venues. US airline traffic is also gathering momentum, with more people traveling by air over the past four days than in any four-day period since the start of the pandemic.\n\"President Reagan famously ran on it being \"Morning in America\" and we can't help but feel it is Springtime in America,\" Raymond James strategists wrote in a note Monday. \"It feels like we are on the cusp of leaving a long dark winter of Covid.\"\nMeanwhile, there are signs that Washington will not rush to remove some of its support for the economy.\nGoldman Sachs is now expecting stronger fiscal support beyond 2021. Specifically, the bank now assumes Congress will extend the larger child tax credit beyond its expiration at the end of this year and continue providing expanded unemployment insurance eligibility and benefit duration through 2022.\nHiring rebound in schools\nAnother reason for optimism: Uncle Sam is rescuing state and local governments. And that in turn should help repair shrinking municipal payrolls.\nState and local governments shed a staggering 1.3 million jobs in 2020, outpacing the losses during the Great Recession, and few of them have returned, according to Goldman Sachs. The vast majority of those job losses are linked to closed schools.\nBut Washington learned a tough lesson from last decade, when hurting state and local governments took many years to recover from the Great Recession. Government hiring remained weak and that weighed on the overall recovery.\nBy contrast, over the past year Washington has approved a stunning $800 billion in aid and education funds for state and local governments. That's why Goldman Sachs expects at least two-thirds of the state and local jobs lost during the pandemic to return by the time schools open in September — bolstering payrolls by 900,000 jobs by the end of this third quarter.\nInflation jitters\nAll of this spending from Washington has raised concerns on Wall Street that the era of soft inflation and rock-bottom interest rates could soon be over. Treasury yields have spiked in recent weeks on inflation fears and further increases could make stocks look less attractive compared with boring bonds.\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will seek to reassure investors this week that the US central bank is in no rush to end its bond purchases, let alone raise interest rates. Powell does not want a repeat of the 2013 \"taper tantrum,\" when investors freaked out because the Fed said it would slowly dial back its bond purchases.\n\"Eventually, the bond market has to adjust to a new reality of a recovered economy and it may well throw a tantrum as it does so,\" David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds, wrote in a note to clients Monday.\nHowever, Kelly thinks Powell and the Fed should just rip off the band-aid and prepare investors for higher rates ahead.\n\"As a parent, it is better to stand your ground and endure the tantrums of a 4-year-old,\" he said, \"rather than always give in and later face the more destructive tantrums of a teenager.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1394,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/325953198"}