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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":324718593,"tweetId":"324718593","gmtCreate":1616030492912,"gmtModify":1703496585484,"author":{"id":3558849329059364,"idStr":"3558849329059364","authorId":3558849329059364,"authorIdStr":"3558849329059364","name":"torrentialT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ca40426e74f1de05493dfa86c9b8d3","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>to the moon!&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>to the moon!&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$to the moon!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324718593","repostId":1196092062,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196092062","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616029011,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1196092062?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 08:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Will Wait. That’s a Positive for Stocks and a Departure From the Past.<blockquote>美联储将等待。这对股市来说是一个利好，也是与过去的不同。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196092062","media":"Barrons","summary":"“Don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes” appears to be the new command from the Federal Reserve.Powell’s comments were clearly aimed atheightened expectationsthat the Fed could raise rates multiple times by 2023, which in turn has lifted intermediate- and long-term Treasury yields. Those expectations pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to 1.68% at midday Wednesday, the highest level since January 2020. That benchmark yield eased back to 1.62% by the end of Powell’s press confe","content":"“Don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes” appears to be the new command from the Federal Reserve.<blockquote>“在看到他们的眼白之前，不要开枪 ”似乎是美联储的新命令。</blockquote> Any prospect—indeed even any discussion—of interest-rate increases or reductions in securities purchases by the central bank will depend on the Fed having its goals in sight, not just in its forecasts, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized at a press conference on Wednesday. That doesn’t seem likely soon.<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上强调，美联储加息或减少证券购买的任何前景——甚至任何讨论——都将取决于美联储是否有目标，而不仅仅是预测。这似乎不太可能很快发生。</blockquote> Powell’s comments were clearly aimed atheightened expectationsthat the Fed could raise rates multiple times by 2023, which in turn has lifted intermediate- and long-term Treasury yields. Those expectations pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to 1.68% at midday Wednesday, the highest level since January 2020. That benchmark yield eased back to 1.62% by the end of Powell’s press conference, which, in turn, lifted stocks. The&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;ended the day 0.6% higher and&nbsp;closed above the 33,000 mark&nbsp;for the first time.<blockquote>鲍威尔的言论显然是为了提高人们对美联储到 2023 年可能多次加息的预期，这反过来又推高了中长期国债收益率。这些预期推动基准 10 年期国债收益率周三中午升至 1.68%，为 2020 年 1 月以来的最高水平。鲍威尔新闻发布会结束时，基准收益率回落至 1.62%，这反过来又提振了股市。道琼斯工业平均指数收盘上涨0.6%，首次收于33,000点大关上方。</blockquote> Powell’s remarks followed the release of the&nbsp;Federal Open Market Committee’s policy statement, which, as universally expected, contained no changes in its near-zero federal-funds target or its $120 billion monthly purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities.<blockquote>鲍威尔发表上述言论之前，联邦公开市场委员会（Federal Open Market Committee）发布了政策声明。</blockquote> Neither was it surprising that the Fed’s new&nbsp;Summary of Economic Projections&nbsp;contained significant upgrades to the central bank’s outlook for economic growth from its previous one released last December. Real gross domestic product is now expected to grow 6.5% in 2021, up from 4.2% previously, thanks to a boost from the recently enacted $1.9 trillion fiscal package. Similarly, the panel’s projection for unemployment is lowered and its expectation for inflation was increased slightly. Forecasts for 2022 and 2023 also were tweaked.<blockquote>美联储新的经济预测摘要对央行去年 12 月发布的经济增长前景进行了重大升级，这也不足为奇。由于最近颁布的 1.9 万亿美元财政一揽子计划的推动，2021 年实际国内生产总值预计将增长 6.5%，高于之前的 4.2%。同样，该小组对失业率的预测也有所下调，对通胀的预期也略有上调。2022 年和 2023 年的预测也进行了调整。</blockquote> But the main message Powell conveyed was clear: The Fed will continue to maintain its ultra-accommodative policy until the monetary authorities are convinced its policy goals are in sight. That would mark a sharp departure from the practice of monetary policy for more than a generation.<blockquote>但鲍威尔传达的主要信息很明确：美联储将继续维持超宽松政策，直到货币当局确信其政策目标触手可及。这将标志着与一代人以来的货币政策实践的急剧背离。</blockquote> The accepted modus operandi has been for the Fed to head off an increase in inflation by pre-emptively tightening monetary policy when what it considered to be full employment was in its forecast. Not only did the Fed’s target for full employment keep changing—falling from 6%, to 5%, and so on, until the jobless rate hit 3.5% in early 2020 before the pandemic—but inflation continuously fell short of the Fed’s 2% target.<blockquote>公认的做法是，当美联储预测充分就业时，通过先发制人地收紧货币政策来阻止通胀上升。美联储的充分就业目标不仅不断变化--从 6% 降至 5%，以此类推，直到大流行病爆发前的 2020 年初失业率达到 3.5%--而且通胀率也持续低于美联储 2% 的目标。</blockquote> While the Fed’s so-called dot plot of rate expectations showed seven out of 18 FOMC members anticipated an increase in the fed-funds rate in 2023, Powell continually took pains to say those are only estimates of where the individual Fed governors and district presidents think the rate might be based on their individual forecasts. Not only is that a long ways off in the future, Powell noted, but the forecasts are even more uncertain than usual.<blockquote>虽然美联储所谓的利率预期点阵图显示，18 名联邦公开市场委员会成员中有 7 名预计联邦基金利率将在 2023 年上调，但鲍威尔不断不厌其烦地表示，这些只是美联储理事和地区主席根据其个人预测认为利率可能走势的估计。鲍威尔指出，这不仅在未来还有很长的路要走，而且预测比平时更加不确定。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the Fed will be keeping its foot down on the monetary gas pedal. Financial conditions remain extremely accommodative, as indicated by the Dow’s record plus still historically low interest rates and tight credit spreads, which Powell called appropriate. What would be worrisome would be if financial conditions became disorderly.<blockquote>与此同时，美联储将继续踩下货币油门。金融状况仍然极其宽松，道琼斯指数创下历史新高，加上利率仍然处于历史低位，信贷利差收紧，鲍威尔称这是合适的。令人担忧的是，财务状况是否变得混乱。</blockquote> Powell didn’t think any change in the Fed’s bond purchases was needed in the face of higher yields at the long end of the Treasury market. He called the central bank’s purchases across the yield curve appropriate and didn’t see the need to skew its buying to try to pressure longer-term yields lower. Some central banks abroad, notably the Reserve Bank of Australia, have tried to manipulate bond markets by&nbsp;shifting their purchases.<blockquote>鲍威尔认为，面对国债市场长期收益率的上升，美联储无需改变债券购买方式。他称央行在收益率曲线上的购买是适当的，认为没有必要歪曲其购买来试图压低长期收益率。一些国外央行，特别是澳大利亚储备银行，试图通过转移购买来操纵债券市场。</blockquote> Even with the headline measures of unemployment expected by the Fed to drop from 6.2% last month to 4.5% by year end and 3.9% by the end of 2022, Powell emphasized that the total number of jobs remains more than 9 million below where it stood before the pandemic. Inflation also would have to show more than a transitory rise from the depressed levels of a year ago and stay above the 2% target for some time for the Fed to change its stance.<blockquote>尽管美联储预计总体失业率将从上个月的6.2%降至年底的4.5%，到2022年底降至3.9%，但鲍威尔强调，就业总数仍比疫情前低900多万个。美联储要想改变立场，通胀率还必须从一年前的低迷水平暂时上升，并在一段时间内保持在 2% 的目标之上。</blockquote> Keeping Fed policy easy while the economy recovers clearly is bullish for financial markets. “It would be hard to craft a more constructive statement than this,” a client note from Evercore ISI asserted.<blockquote>在经济复苏期间保持美联储政策宽松显然有利于金融市场。“Evercore ISI 的一份客户说明断言：”很难再写出比这更具建设性的声明了。</blockquote> But this policy of maintaining zero rates and huge bond purchases, even as the economy recovers, is an experiment playing out in real time. The mantra had always been that monetary policy works with long and variable lags. That produced four decades of disinflation.<blockquote>但即使经济复苏，这种维持零利率和巨额债券购买的政策也是实时进行的实验。口头禅一直是，货币政策在长期和可变的滞后性下发挥作用。这导致了四十年的通货紧缩。</blockquote> Waiting until the Fed sees the whites of inflation’s eyes will be a test of this new experimental approach.<blockquote>等到美联储看到通货膨胀的白眼，将是对这种新实验方法的一次考验。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Will Wait. That’s a Positive for Stocks and a Departure From the Past.<blockquote>美联储将等待。这对股市来说是一个利好，也是与过去的不同。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Will Wait. That’s a Positive for Stocks and a Departure From the Past.<blockquote>美联储将等待。这对股市来说是一个利好，也是与过去的不同。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-03-18 08:56\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes” appears to be the new command from the Federal Reserve.<blockquote>“在看到他们的眼白之前，不要开枪 ”似乎是美联储的新命令。</blockquote> Any prospect—indeed even any discussion—of interest-rate increases or reductions in securities purchases by the central bank will depend on the Fed having its goals in sight, not just in its forecasts, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized at a press conference on Wednesday. That doesn’t seem likely soon.<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上强调，美联储加息或减少证券购买的任何前景——甚至任何讨论——都将取决于美联储是否有目标，而不仅仅是预测。这似乎不太可能很快发生。</blockquote> Powell’s comments were clearly aimed atheightened expectationsthat the Fed could raise rates multiple times by 2023, which in turn has lifted intermediate- and long-term Treasury yields. Those expectations pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to 1.68% at midday Wednesday, the highest level since January 2020. That benchmark yield eased back to 1.62% by the end of Powell’s press conference, which, in turn, lifted stocks. The&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;ended the day 0.6% higher and&nbsp;closed above the 33,000 mark&nbsp;for the first time.<blockquote>鲍威尔的言论显然是为了提高人们对美联储到 2023 年可能多次加息的预期，这反过来又推高了中长期国债收益率。这些预期推动基准 10 年期国债收益率周三中午升至 1.68%，为 2020 年 1 月以来的最高水平。鲍威尔新闻发布会结束时，基准收益率回落至 1.62%，这反过来又提振了股市。道琼斯工业平均指数收盘上涨0.6%，首次收于33,000点大关上方。</blockquote> Powell’s remarks followed the release of the&nbsp;Federal Open Market Committee’s policy statement, which, as universally expected, contained no changes in its near-zero federal-funds target or its $120 billion monthly purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities.<blockquote>鲍威尔发表上述言论之前，联邦公开市场委员会（Federal Open Market Committee）发布了政策声明。</blockquote> Neither was it surprising that the Fed’s new&nbsp;Summary of Economic Projections&nbsp;contained significant upgrades to the central bank’s outlook for economic growth from its previous one released last December. Real gross domestic product is now expected to grow 6.5% in 2021, up from 4.2% previously, thanks to a boost from the recently enacted $1.9 trillion fiscal package. Similarly, the panel’s projection for unemployment is lowered and its expectation for inflation was increased slightly. Forecasts for 2022 and 2023 also were tweaked.<blockquote>美联储新的经济预测摘要对央行去年 12 月发布的经济增长前景进行了重大升级，这也不足为奇。由于最近颁布的 1.9 万亿美元财政一揽子计划的推动，2021 年实际国内生产总值预计将增长 6.5%，高于之前的 4.2%。同样，该小组对失业率的预测也有所下调，对通胀的预期也略有上调。2022 年和 2023 年的预测也进行了调整。</blockquote> But the main message Powell conveyed was clear: The Fed will continue to maintain its ultra-accommodative policy until the monetary authorities are convinced its policy goals are in sight. That would mark a sharp departure from the practice of monetary policy for more than a generation.<blockquote>但鲍威尔传达的主要信息很明确：美联储将继续维持超宽松政策，直到货币当局确信其政策目标触手可及。这将标志着与一代人以来的货币政策实践的急剧背离。</blockquote> The accepted modus operandi has been for the Fed to head off an increase in inflation by pre-emptively tightening monetary policy when what it considered to be full employment was in its forecast. Not only did the Fed’s target for full employment keep changing—falling from 6%, to 5%, and so on, until the jobless rate hit 3.5% in early 2020 before the pandemic—but inflation continuously fell short of the Fed’s 2% target.<blockquote>公认的做法是，当美联储预测充分就业时，通过先发制人地收紧货币政策来阻止通胀上升。美联储的充分就业目标不仅不断变化--从 6% 降至 5%，以此类推，直到大流行病爆发前的 2020 年初失业率达到 3.5%--而且通胀率也持续低于美联储 2% 的目标。</blockquote> While the Fed’s so-called dot plot of rate expectations showed seven out of 18 FOMC members anticipated an increase in the fed-funds rate in 2023, Powell continually took pains to say those are only estimates of where the individual Fed governors and district presidents think the rate might be based on their individual forecasts. Not only is that a long ways off in the future, Powell noted, but the forecasts are even more uncertain than usual.<blockquote>虽然美联储所谓的利率预期点阵图显示，18 名联邦公开市场委员会成员中有 7 名预计联邦基金利率将在 2023 年上调，但鲍威尔不断不厌其烦地表示，这些只是美联储理事和地区主席根据其个人预测认为利率可能走势的估计。鲍威尔指出，这不仅在未来还有很长的路要走，而且预测比平时更加不确定。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the Fed will be keeping its foot down on the monetary gas pedal. Financial conditions remain extremely accommodative, as indicated by the Dow’s record plus still historically low interest rates and tight credit spreads, which Powell called appropriate. What would be worrisome would be if financial conditions became disorderly.<blockquote>与此同时，美联储将继续踩下货币油门。金融状况仍然极其宽松，道琼斯指数创下历史新高，加上利率仍然处于历史低位，信贷利差收紧，鲍威尔称这是合适的。令人担忧的是，财务状况是否变得混乱。</blockquote> Powell didn’t think any change in the Fed’s bond purchases was needed in the face of higher yields at the long end of the Treasury market. He called the central bank’s purchases across the yield curve appropriate and didn’t see the need to skew its buying to try to pressure longer-term yields lower. Some central banks abroad, notably the Reserve Bank of Australia, have tried to manipulate bond markets by&nbsp;shifting their purchases.<blockquote>鲍威尔认为，面对国债市场长期收益率的上升，美联储无需改变债券购买方式。他称央行在收益率曲线上的购买是适当的，认为没有必要歪曲其购买来试图压低长期收益率。一些国外央行，特别是澳大利亚储备银行，试图通过转移购买来操纵债券市场。</blockquote> Even with the headline measures of unemployment expected by the Fed to drop from 6.2% last month to 4.5% by year end and 3.9% by the end of 2022, Powell emphasized that the total number of jobs remains more than 9 million below where it stood before the pandemic. Inflation also would have to show more than a transitory rise from the depressed levels of a year ago and stay above the 2% target for some time for the Fed to change its stance.<blockquote>尽管美联储预计总体失业率将从上个月的6.2%降至年底的4.5%，到2022年底降至3.9%，但鲍威尔强调，就业总数仍比疫情前低900多万个。美联储要想改变立场，通胀率还必须从一年前的低迷水平暂时上升，并在一段时间内保持在 2% 的目标之上。</blockquote> Keeping Fed policy easy while the economy recovers clearly is bullish for financial markets. “It would be hard to craft a more constructive statement than this,” a client note from Evercore ISI asserted.<blockquote>在经济复苏期间保持美联储政策宽松显然有利于金融市场。“Evercore ISI 的一份客户说明断言：”很难再写出比这更具建设性的声明了。</blockquote> But this policy of maintaining zero rates and huge bond purchases, even as the economy recovers, is an experiment playing out in real time. The mantra had always been that monetary policy works with long and variable lags. That produced four decades of disinflation.<blockquote>但即使经济复苏，这种维持零利率和巨额债券购买的政策也是实时进行的实验。口头禅一直是，货币政策在长期和可变的滞后性下发挥作用。这导致了四十年的通货紧缩。</blockquote> Waiting until the Fed sees the whites of inflation’s eyes will be a test of this new experimental approach.<blockquote>等到美联储看到通货膨胀的白眼，将是对这种新实验方法的一次考验。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-fed-will-wait-thats-a-positive-for-stocks-and-a-departure-from-the-past-51616022872?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-fed-will-wait-thats-a-positive-for-stocks-and-a-departure-from-the-past-51616022872?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196092062","content_text":"“Don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes” appears to be the new command from the Federal Reserve.\nAny prospect—indeed even any discussion—of interest-rate increases or reductions in securities purchases by the central bank will depend on the Fed having its goals in sight, not just in its forecasts, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized at a press conference on Wednesday. That doesn’t seem likely soon.\nPowell’s comments were clearly aimed atheightened expectationsthat the Fed could raise rates multiple times by 2023, which in turn has lifted intermediate- and long-term Treasury yields. Those expectations pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to 1.68% at midday Wednesday, the highest level since January 2020. That benchmark yield eased back to 1.62% by the end of Powell’s press conference, which, in turn, lifted stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day 0.6% higher and closed above the 33,000 mark for the first time.\nPowell’s remarks followed the release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy statement, which, as universally expected, contained no changes in its near-zero federal-funds target or its $120 billion monthly purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities.\nNeither was it surprising that the Fed’s new Summary of Economic Projections contained significant upgrades to the central bank’s outlook for economic growth from its previous one released last December. Real gross domestic product is now expected to grow 6.5% in 2021, up from 4.2% previously, thanks to a boost from the recently enacted $1.9 trillion fiscal package. Similarly, the panel’s projection for unemployment is lowered and its expectation for inflation was increased slightly. Forecasts for 2022 and 2023 also were tweaked.\nBut the main message Powell conveyed was clear: The Fed will continue to maintain its ultra-accommodative policy until the monetary authorities are convinced its policy goals are in sight. That would mark a sharp departure from the practice of monetary policy for more than a generation.\nThe accepted modus operandi has been for the Fed to head off an increase in inflation by pre-emptively tightening monetary policy when what it considered to be full employment was in its forecast. Not only did the Fed’s target for full employment keep changing—falling from 6%, to 5%, and so on, until the jobless rate hit 3.5% in early 2020 before the pandemic—but inflation continuously fell short of the Fed’s 2% target.\nWhile the Fed’s so-called dot plot of rate expectations showed seven out of 18 FOMC members anticipated an increase in the fed-funds rate in 2023, Powell continually took pains to say those are only estimates of where the individual Fed governors and district presidents think the rate might be based on their individual forecasts. Not only is that a long ways off in the future, Powell noted, but the forecasts are even more uncertain than usual.\nMeanwhile, the Fed will be keeping its foot down on the monetary gas pedal. Financial conditions remain extremely accommodative, as indicated by the Dow’s record plus still historically low interest rates and tight credit spreads, which Powell called appropriate. What would be worrisome would be if financial conditions became disorderly.\nPowell didn’t think any change in the Fed’s bond purchases was needed in the face of higher yields at the long end of the Treasury market. He called the central bank’s purchases across the yield curve appropriate and didn’t see the need to skew its buying to try to pressure longer-term yields lower. Some central banks abroad, notably the Reserve Bank of Australia, have tried to manipulate bond markets by shifting their purchases.\nEven with the headline measures of unemployment expected by the Fed to drop from 6.2% last month to 4.5% by year end and 3.9% by the end of 2022, Powell emphasized that the total number of jobs remains more than 9 million below where it stood before the pandemic. Inflation also would have to show more than a transitory rise from the depressed levels of a year ago and stay above the 2% target for some time for the Fed to change its stance.\nKeeping Fed policy easy while the economy recovers clearly is bullish for financial markets. “It would be hard to craft a more constructive statement than this,” a client note from Evercore ISI asserted.\nBut this policy of maintaining zero rates and huge bond purchases, even as the economy recovers, is an experiment playing out in real time. The mantra had always been that monetary policy works with long and variable lags. That produced four decades of disinflation.\nWaiting until the Fed sees the whites of inflation’s eyes will be a test of this new experimental approach.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":980,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["TSLA"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":29,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/324718593"}