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2021-03-10

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Technically Speaking: The Bull Market Is On Shaky Ground<blockquote>从技术上讲：牛市的基础不稳定</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":323785418,"tweetId":"323785418","gmtCreate":1615376563034,"gmtModify":1703488095946,"author":{"id":3575454346524693,"idStr":"3575454346524693","authorId":3575454346524693,"authorIdStr":"3575454346524693","name":"ChloeJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a7b7b65dde77dad85d7c7050262ef89","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>yes</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>yes</body></html>","text":"yes","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323785418","repostId":1178216373,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178216373","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615376006,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1178216373?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-10 19:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: The Bull Market Is On Shaky Ground<blockquote>从技术上讲：牛市的基础不稳定</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178216373","media":"Real Investment Advice","summary":"Last week’s sell-off left the “bull market” on shaky ground.\nThe big question for investors at the m","content":"Last week’s sell-off left the “bull market” on shaky ground.<blockquote>上周的抛售让 “牛市 ”摇摇欲坠。</blockquote> The big question for investors at the moment is whether the&nbsp;11-year old bull market&nbsp;is ending or is this just a“pause that refreshes?”<blockquote>目前投资者面临的最大问题是11年牛市是结束还是这只是一个“令人耳目一新的停顿？”</blockquote> While the optimistic“hope”is that this is just a pause within a continuing“bull market”advance, from a money management standpoint getting the answer“right”is vastly more important to long-term investing outcomes.<blockquote>而乐观的“希望”这只是一个持续的停顿“牛市”提前，从资金管理的角度得到答案“对”对长期投资结果更重要。</blockquote> The easiest way to approach this analysis is to start with the following basic premise:<blockquote>进行此分析的最简单方法是从以下基本前提开始：</blockquote> “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, and die on euphoria.” -Sir John Templeton Euphoria Has Been Evident<blockquote>“牛市诞生于悲观，成长于怀疑，消亡于兴奋。”-约翰·邓普顿爵士欣快是显而易见的</blockquote> There is little argument that“euphoria”has not been evident in the market recently. From excessive levels of call-option buying by small traders to chasing the most shorted stocks in the market. As I noted just recently in“No One Is Bearish:”<blockquote>几乎没有争论“欣快感”近期市场上并不明显。从小交易者过度购买看涨期权期权到追逐市场上做空最多的股票。正如我最近在“没有人看跌：”</blockquote> <ul> <li>Fund managers’ allocation to cash is down to 3.8%, the lowest since March 2013.Such was&nbsp;just before the “taper tantrum” era under former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1c7e74281f4546a4a5a28a35a9bfe9\" tg-width=\"1580\" tg-height=\"986\"><blockquote><ul><li>基金经理的现金配置比例降至 3.8%，为 2013 年 3 月以来的最低水平。这还是在前美联储主席本-伯南克（Ben Bernanke）领导下的 “缩减规模 ”时代之前。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Allocations to stocks and commodities are the highest since February 2011.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73520f72bf0f824be59d828e1d91a970\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"952\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0824f55194b685250180b436732c5fca\" tg-width=\"1578\" tg-height=\"894\"><blockquote><ul><li>股票和大宗商品的配置是2011年2月以来的最高水平。</li></ul></blockquote> The point here, of course, is that when everyone is“in the pool,”it doesn’t take much to create a reversion.<blockquote>当然，这里的重点是当每个人都“在泳池里，”创建一个回归并不需要太多时间。</blockquote> The Value Trade Is No Longer A Value<blockquote>价值交易不再是价值</blockquote> Such is what we begin to see last week, as the previous favorite“momentum”trades were swapped in a massive rotation to“value.”Given the massively overbought extremes in the“value”plays, that rotation is likely going to be akin to“jumping from the frying pan into the fire.”<blockquote>这就是我们上周开始看到的，作为之前的最爱“势头”交易大量轮换到“价值。”鉴于大规模超买的极端情况“价值”比赛，轮换可能类似于“从煎锅跳进火里。”</blockquote> Small-cap value is more extended currently than at any point over the last 20-years using weekly data. With the index well into 3-standard deviation territory, extremely deviated from long-term means, and grossly overvalued, the eventual reversion will be brutal.<blockquote>使用每周数据，小盘股价值目前比过去 20 年来的任何时候都要扩大。随着该指数进入3个标准差区域，与长期均值极度偏离，并且被严重高估，最终的回归将是残酷的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f709556dbcea03c76994a7ca372d3332\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"1007\"><blockquote></blockquote> The same is seen in the weekly chart of the Russell 2000 index which picks up the Mid-cap exposure as well. With valuations in these stocks well ahead of even the most optimistic economic outlook, the risk of disappointment is high.<blockquote>罗素 2000 指数的周线图也显示了同样的情况，该指数也增加了中型股的风险敞口。由于这些股票的估值甚至远远领先于最乐观的经济前景，失望的风险很高。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f430da155d24c0362cd169ee99e5dfb\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"1010\"><blockquote></blockquote> The poster child for the economic reopening and value rotation trade has been energy. Like small-cap value and the Russell 2000, energy is also exceedingly extended, overbought, and deviated from long-term means. At every similar point in history, the reversion was brutal.<blockquote>经济重新开放和价值轮换贸易的典型代表是能源。与小盘股价值和罗素 2000 指数一样，能源指数也过度扩张、超买并偏离长期均值。在历史上每一个类似的时刻，这种回归都是残酷的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab83024ef39099cb1d9852cccb58201\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"1009\"><blockquote></blockquote> This time is unlikely to be different.<blockquote>这一次不太可能有什么不同。</blockquote> Intermediate Indicators Worrisome<blockquote>中间指标令人担忧</blockquote> Our intermediate-term indicators,&nbsp;(which utilizes weekly data), continue to paint a more concerning picture. Turn your&nbsp;focus to the middle panel of“money flows.”&nbsp;Despite the&nbsp;“seeming”&nbsp;exuberance of the market over the last few months, money flows have continued to weaken.<blockquote>我们的中期指标，（使用每周数据），继续描绘一幅更令人担忧的画面。将焦点转到中面板“资金流动。”尽管“看起来”在过去几个月的市场繁荣中，资金流动持续减弱。</blockquote> In early November, we recommended increasing equity exposure to portfolios as the&nbsp;“buy signal”was triggered. However, beginning in February, that signal reversed leading to continued downward price pressures.<blockquote>11月初，我们建议增加投资组合的股票敞口，因为买入信号被触发了。然而，从2月份开始，这一信号逆转，导致价格持续下行压力。</blockquote> While the market could indeed bounce in the short-term, the decline in&nbsp;“money flows,”&nbsp;and the convergence of&nbsp;“sell signals,”&nbsp;does increase our concern of a bigger decline over the next month or so.<blockquote>虽然市场在短期内确实会反弹，但“资金流动”和收敛“卖出信号”确实增加了我们对未来一个月左右跌幅更大的担忧。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84fe9f1e9350c3c7a0883b8fd519d2fc\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"823\"><blockquote></blockquote> The problem with the indicator is that it does not distinguish between declines. The“sell signal”in September and October of 2020 coincided with two 10% declines. The signal in March was a 35% crash over a 3-week period.<blockquote>该指标的问题在于它无法区分下降。这个卖出信号2020年9月和10月恰逢两次10%的下降。3 月份的信号是 3 周内暴跌 35%。</blockquote> There is certainly a risk of a larger decline given the confirming MACD sell signal in the lower panel. I suspect in the near-term declines will still be met with buyers as the“momentum”chase remains.However, the risk of a deeper correction is certainly possible if something&nbsp;“spooks”the market, so risk management remains key.<blockquote>鉴于下方面板中的确认 MACD 卖出信号，肯定存在更大下跌的风险。我怀疑近期下跌仍将受到买家的欢迎“势头”蔡斯还在。然而，如果出现以下情况，则存在更深层次调整的风险《幽灵》市场，因此风险管理仍然是关键。</blockquote> Longer-Term Concerns<blockquote>长期关注</blockquote> One of the more concerning charts we have been monitoring for some time is the monthly expanding price pattern. Once again, the market has struggled with the top of the expanding pattern as relative strength continues to deteriorate. With the markets extremely extended on a monthly basis, as denoted by the red arrows, such periods have had less positive outcomes for investors.<blockquote>一段时间以来，我们一直在监测的一个更令人担忧的图表是每月扩大的价格模式。随着相对实力持续恶化，市场再次在扩张模式的顶部挣扎。如红色箭头所示，由于市场每月极度延长，这些时期对投资者来说没有那么积极的结果。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8310d022a3d86ce471faf40b4562a753\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"928\"><blockquote></blockquote> Monthly price charts are&nbsp; NOT TO BE USED &nbsp;for trading portfolios. &nbsp;Indications are only valid at the end of the month, and they are slow to turn. Due to the lag, most short-term focused investors make assumptions the indications are&nbsp;“wrong”&nbsp;this time.&nbsp; However, history tends to prove that extreme market extensions rarely resolve themselves to the upside.<blockquote>每月价格图表是不得使用用于交易投资组合。适应症只有在月底才有效，而且转得很慢。由于滞后，大多数关注短期的投资者都会假设这些迹象是“错误”这次。然而，历史往往证明，极端的市场扩张很少会导致上行。</blockquote> Of course, what causes the eventual&nbsp;“reversion”&nbsp;is always an unexpected, exogenous event when sends investors scrambling for exits where there are few buyers.<blockquote>当然，是什么导致了最终的“回归”当投资者在买家很少的地方争先恐后地退出时，总是一个意想不到的外部事件。</blockquote> Managing Past The Noise<blockquote>管理过去的噪音</blockquote> There are many arguments for both bulls and bears. On the bullish side, the passage of another stimulus bill will provide a short-term“sugar rush” in the markets and economy.<blockquote>多头和空头都有很多争论。从乐观的角度来看，另一项刺激法案的通过将提供短期市场和经济中的 “糖热”。</blockquote> On the bearish side, everything from extreme exuberance to over valuation poses a longer-term threat. As noted by SentimenTrader over the weekend:<blockquote>从看跌的角度来看，从极度繁荣到估值过高，一切都构成了长期威胁。正如 SentimentTrader 周末指出的那样：</blockquote> “Yesterday was the biggest split in almost 40 years. There were so many stocks hitting 52-week highs AND 52-week lows on both the NYSE andNasdaqthat it registered the 2nd most extreme reading since 1984. Split markets have a strong tendency to be ‘not bullish.'” <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471873a9bdc6304f914500d00fed2ee\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"438\"><blockquote>“昨天是近 40 年来最大的一次分割。纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克都有如此多的股票创下了 52 周高点和 52 周低点，创下了自 1984 年以来第二极端的读数。分拆市场有强烈的‘不看涨’倾向。”</blockquote> Whether you are bullish or bearish there is an argument to fit your agenda.<blockquote>无论你是看涨还是看跌，都有一个符合你议程的论点。</blockquote> Therein Lies The Rub<blockquote>问题就在这里</blockquote> YOUR personal bias&nbsp;may be leading you astray as&nbsp;“cognitive biases”&nbsp;impair investor returns over time.<blockquote>你的个人偏见可能会把你引入歧途 “认知偏差”随着时间的推移损害投资者回报。</blockquote> “Confirmation bias, also called&nbsp; my side &nbsp; bias , is the tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions or working hypotheses. It is a systematic error of inductive reasoning.” Therefore, it is important to consider&nbsp;both sides&nbsp;of the current debate in order to make logical, rather than emotional, decisions about current portfolio allocations and risk management.<blockquote>“确认偏差，也称为我这边 偏见是以证实自己先入为主的观念或工作假设的方式搜索、解释和记忆信息的倾向。这是归纳推理的系统性错误。”因此，考虑两边当前的辩论，以便对当前的投资组合分配和风险管理做出合乎逻辑的而不是情绪化的决定。</blockquote> Currently, the&nbsp;“bulls”&nbsp;are still in control of the market. The long-term running bull trend remains intact…for now.The chart below is a MONTHLY chart of the S&amp;P 500. Importantly, the bullish trend that began in 2009 remains intact. A correction back to that trendline would encompass a nearly 30% decline from last week’s close.<blockquote>目前，“公牛”仍然控制着市场。长期的牛市趋势仍然完好无损……就目前而言。下图是标普500的月图。重要的是，始于2009年的看涨趋势仍然完好无损。如果回到该趋势线，则将比上周收盘价下跌近 30%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d224c846fa83d3e58890ac5eedf2155e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"673\"><blockquote></blockquote> However, the real question is the sustainability of the market at current levels given the rather extreme deviation from long-term means.<blockquote>然而，真正的问题是，鉴于与长期均值的极端偏差，市场在当前水平上的可持续性。</blockquote> For those of you who like analogs, the most comparable period historically is the 1998-1999 market“melt-up.”During that period, the market bounced off support and then began a 60%“melt-up”to the final peak in 2000. Currently, from the March lows, the S&amp;P has risen by nearly 60%. In both cases, the negative divergence in relative strength combined with grossly extended markets did not work out well.<blockquote>对于那些喜欢类似物的人来说，历史上最具可比性的时期是1998-1999年的市场“融化。”在此期间，市场从支撑位反弹，然后开始上涨 60%“融化”2000年达到最后的顶峰。目前，自3月份低点以来，标准普尔指数已上涨近60%。在这两种情况下，相对实力的负背离加上严重扩张的市场并没有很好地发挥作用。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0817ed8ab27aa3d7f3b036fc5dc09b14\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"673\"><blockquote></blockquote> Continue To Focus On Risk Controls<blockquote>持续关注风险控制</blockquote> The big question right now is whether the correction that began a couple of weeks ago is over?<blockquote>现在最大的问题是几周前开始的调整是否已经结束？</blockquote> I would not be surprised to see a reasonable bounce in the market given the passage of the stimulus, and short-term oversold conditions. Such certainly continues to support the“economic recovery”story. Unfortunately, once the stimulus runs through the system, the markets will again face economic realities.<blockquote>鉴于刺激措施的通过和短期超卖情况，如果看到市场出现合理的反弹，我不会感到惊讶。这肯定会继续支持“经济复苏”故事。不幸的是，一旦刺激措施贯穿整个体系，市场将再次面临经济现实。</blockquote> For all of these reasons, we continue to hold slightly higher levels of cash and continue to focus on basic risk management controls. As such, over the next couple of weeks we will likely:<blockquote>基于所有这些原因，我们继续持有略高的现金水平，并继续专注于基本的风险管理控制。因此，在接下来的几周内，我们可能会：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Sell positions that simply are not working.If they were not working in the strongly rising market and failed to hold support during the decline, acknowledge your thesis is wrong.Investment Rule:&nbsp;Cut losers short.</li> <li>Trim winning positions back to original portfolio weightings.&nbsp;This allows you to harvest profits but remain invested in positions that are working.&nbsp;Investment Rule:&nbsp;Let winners run.</li> <li>Retain cash raised from sales&nbsp;for opportunities&nbsp;to purchase investments later at a better price.&nbsp;Investment Rule:&nbsp;Sell High, Buy Low</li> </ol> While&nbsp;“bearish”&nbsp;concerns are often dismissed when markets are rising, it does not mean they aren’t valid.Unfortunately, by the time the&nbsp;“herd”is alerted to a shift in overall sentiment, the stampede for the exits will already be well underway.<blockquote><ol><li>出售根本不起作用的头寸。如果他们在强劲上涨的市场中没有发挥作用，并且在下跌期间未能保持支撑，那么承认你的论点是错误的。投资规则：做空输家。</li><li>将获胜头寸调整回原始投资组合权重。这可以让你获得利润，但仍然投资于有效的头寸。投资法则：让赢家跑。</li><li>保留销售所得现金 寻找机会以后以更好的价格购买投资。投资法则：高抛低吸</li></ol>而“看跌”当市场上涨时，担忧往往会被打消，但这并不意味着这些担忧是不成立的。不幸的是，当“羊群”意识到整体情绪的转变，退出潮已经开始。</blockquote> Is the current bull market dead?&nbsp;I don’t know, and trying to predict the market is quite pointless.&nbsp;The risk for investors is the&nbsp;“willful blindness of change”until it is far too late to matter.&nbsp;Just remember, no one thought the“bull market was dead”in 1999 and 2007 either.<blockquote>当前的牛市死了吗？我不知道，试图预测市场毫无意义。投资者面临的风险是“故意对变革视而不见”直到为时已晚。记住，没人认为“牛市已死”1999年和2007年。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603271479234","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: The Bull Market Is On Shaky Ground<blockquote>从技术上讲：牛市的基础不稳定</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nReal Investment Advice2021-03-10 19:33\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nLast week’s sell-off left the “bull market” on shaky ground.<blockquote>上周的抛售让 “牛市 ”摇摇欲坠。</blockquote> The big question for investors at the moment is whether the&nbsp;11-year old bull market&nbsp;is ending or is this just a“pause that refreshes?”<blockquote>目前投资者面临的最大问题是11年牛市是结束还是这只是一个“令人耳目一新的停顿？”</blockquote> While the optimistic“hope”is that this is just a pause within a continuing“bull market”advance, from a money management standpoint getting the answer“right”is vastly more important to long-term investing outcomes.<blockquote>而乐观的“希望”这只是一个持续的停顿“牛市”提前，从资金管理的角度得到答案“对”对长期投资结果更重要。</blockquote> The easiest way to approach this analysis is to start with the following basic premise:<blockquote>进行此分析的最简单方法是从以下基本前提开始：</blockquote> “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, and die on euphoria.” -Sir John Templeton Euphoria Has Been Evident<blockquote>“牛市诞生于悲观，成长于怀疑，消亡于兴奋。”-约翰·邓普顿爵士欣快是显而易见的</blockquote> There is little argument that“euphoria”has not been evident in the market recently. From excessive levels of call-option buying by small traders to chasing the most shorted stocks in the market. As I noted just recently in“No One Is Bearish:”<blockquote>几乎没有争论“欣快感”近期市场上并不明显。从小交易者过度购买看涨期权期权到追逐市场上做空最多的股票。正如我最近在“没有人看跌：”</blockquote> <ul> <li>Fund managers’ allocation to cash is down to 3.8%, the lowest since March 2013.Such was&nbsp;just before the “taper tantrum” era under former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1c7e74281f4546a4a5a28a35a9bfe9\" tg-width=\"1580\" tg-height=\"986\"><blockquote><ul><li>基金经理的现金配置比例降至 3.8%，为 2013 年 3 月以来的最低水平。这还是在前美联储主席本-伯南克（Ben Bernanke）领导下的 “缩减规模 ”时代之前。</li></ul></blockquote> <ul> <li>Allocations to stocks and commodities are the highest since February 2011.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73520f72bf0f824be59d828e1d91a970\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"952\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0824f55194b685250180b436732c5fca\" tg-width=\"1578\" tg-height=\"894\"><blockquote><ul><li>股票和大宗商品的配置是2011年2月以来的最高水平。</li></ul></blockquote> The point here, of course, is that when everyone is“in the pool,”it doesn’t take much to create a reversion.<blockquote>当然，这里的重点是当每个人都“在泳池里，”创建一个回归并不需要太多时间。</blockquote> The Value Trade Is No Longer A Value<blockquote>价值交易不再是价值</blockquote> Such is what we begin to see last week, as the previous favorite“momentum”trades were swapped in a massive rotation to“value.”Given the massively overbought extremes in the“value”plays, that rotation is likely going to be akin to“jumping from the frying pan into the fire.”<blockquote>这就是我们上周开始看到的，作为之前的最爱“势头”交易大量轮换到“价值。”鉴于大规模超买的极端情况“价值”比赛，轮换可能类似于“从煎锅跳进火里。”</blockquote> Small-cap value is more extended currently than at any point over the last 20-years using weekly data. With the index well into 3-standard deviation territory, extremely deviated from long-term means, and grossly overvalued, the eventual reversion will be brutal.<blockquote>使用每周数据，小盘股价值目前比过去 20 年来的任何时候都要扩大。随着该指数进入3个标准差区域，与长期均值极度偏离，并且被严重高估，最终的回归将是残酷的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f709556dbcea03c76994a7ca372d3332\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"1007\"><blockquote></blockquote> The same is seen in the weekly chart of the Russell 2000 index which picks up the Mid-cap exposure as well. With valuations in these stocks well ahead of even the most optimistic economic outlook, the risk of disappointment is high.<blockquote>罗素 2000 指数的周线图也显示了同样的情况，该指数也增加了中型股的风险敞口。由于这些股票的估值甚至远远领先于最乐观的经济前景，失望的风险很高。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f430da155d24c0362cd169ee99e5dfb\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"1010\"><blockquote></blockquote> The poster child for the economic reopening and value rotation trade has been energy. Like small-cap value and the Russell 2000, energy is also exceedingly extended, overbought, and deviated from long-term means. At every similar point in history, the reversion was brutal.<blockquote>经济重新开放和价值轮换贸易的典型代表是能源。与小盘股价值和罗素 2000 指数一样，能源指数也过度扩张、超买并偏离长期均值。在历史上每一个类似的时刻，这种回归都是残酷的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab83024ef39099cb1d9852cccb58201\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"1009\"><blockquote></blockquote> This time is unlikely to be different.<blockquote>这一次不太可能有什么不同。</blockquote> Intermediate Indicators Worrisome<blockquote>中间指标令人担忧</blockquote> Our intermediate-term indicators,&nbsp;(which utilizes weekly data), continue to paint a more concerning picture. Turn your&nbsp;focus to the middle panel of“money flows.”&nbsp;Despite the&nbsp;“seeming”&nbsp;exuberance of the market over the last few months, money flows have continued to weaken.<blockquote>我们的中期指标，（使用每周数据），继续描绘一幅更令人担忧的画面。将焦点转到中面板“资金流动。”尽管“看起来”在过去几个月的市场繁荣中，资金流动持续减弱。</blockquote> In early November, we recommended increasing equity exposure to portfolios as the&nbsp;“buy signal”was triggered. However, beginning in February, that signal reversed leading to continued downward price pressures.<blockquote>11月初，我们建议增加投资组合的股票敞口，因为买入信号被触发了。然而，从2月份开始，这一信号逆转，导致价格持续下行压力。</blockquote> While the market could indeed bounce in the short-term, the decline in&nbsp;“money flows,”&nbsp;and the convergence of&nbsp;“sell signals,”&nbsp;does increase our concern of a bigger decline over the next month or so.<blockquote>虽然市场在短期内确实会反弹，但“资金流动”和收敛“卖出信号”确实增加了我们对未来一个月左右跌幅更大的担忧。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84fe9f1e9350c3c7a0883b8fd519d2fc\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"823\"><blockquote></blockquote> The problem with the indicator is that it does not distinguish between declines. The“sell signal”in September and October of 2020 coincided with two 10% declines. The signal in March was a 35% crash over a 3-week period.<blockquote>该指标的问题在于它无法区分下降。这个卖出信号2020年9月和10月恰逢两次10%的下降。3 月份的信号是 3 周内暴跌 35%。</blockquote> There is certainly a risk of a larger decline given the confirming MACD sell signal in the lower panel. I suspect in the near-term declines will still be met with buyers as the“momentum”chase remains.However, the risk of a deeper correction is certainly possible if something&nbsp;“spooks”the market, so risk management remains key.<blockquote>鉴于下方面板中的确认 MACD 卖出信号，肯定存在更大下跌的风险。我怀疑近期下跌仍将受到买家的欢迎“势头”蔡斯还在。然而，如果出现以下情况，则存在更深层次调整的风险《幽灵》市场，因此风险管理仍然是关键。</blockquote> Longer-Term Concerns<blockquote>长期关注</blockquote> One of the more concerning charts we have been monitoring for some time is the monthly expanding price pattern. Once again, the market has struggled with the top of the expanding pattern as relative strength continues to deteriorate. With the markets extremely extended on a monthly basis, as denoted by the red arrows, such periods have had less positive outcomes for investors.<blockquote>一段时间以来，我们一直在监测的一个更令人担忧的图表是每月扩大的价格模式。随着相对实力持续恶化，市场再次在扩张模式的顶部挣扎。如红色箭头所示，由于市场每月极度延长，这些时期对投资者来说没有那么积极的结果。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8310d022a3d86ce471faf40b4562a753\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"928\"><blockquote></blockquote> Monthly price charts are&nbsp; NOT TO BE USED &nbsp;for trading portfolios. &nbsp;Indications are only valid at the end of the month, and they are slow to turn. Due to the lag, most short-term focused investors make assumptions the indications are&nbsp;“wrong”&nbsp;this time.&nbsp; However, history tends to prove that extreme market extensions rarely resolve themselves to the upside.<blockquote>每月价格图表是不得使用用于交易投资组合。适应症只有在月底才有效，而且转得很慢。由于滞后，大多数关注短期的投资者都会假设这些迹象是“错误”这次。然而，历史往往证明，极端的市场扩张很少会导致上行。</blockquote> Of course, what causes the eventual&nbsp;“reversion”&nbsp;is always an unexpected, exogenous event when sends investors scrambling for exits where there are few buyers.<blockquote>当然，是什么导致了最终的“回归”当投资者在买家很少的地方争先恐后地退出时，总是一个意想不到的外部事件。</blockquote> Managing Past The Noise<blockquote>管理过去的噪音</blockquote> There are many arguments for both bulls and bears. On the bullish side, the passage of another stimulus bill will provide a short-term“sugar rush” in the markets and economy.<blockquote>多头和空头都有很多争论。从乐观的角度来看，另一项刺激法案的通过将提供短期市场和经济中的 “糖热”。</blockquote> On the bearish side, everything from extreme exuberance to over valuation poses a longer-term threat. As noted by SentimenTrader over the weekend:<blockquote>从看跌的角度来看，从极度繁荣到估值过高，一切都构成了长期威胁。正如 SentimentTrader 周末指出的那样：</blockquote> “Yesterday was the biggest split in almost 40 years. There were so many stocks hitting 52-week highs AND 52-week lows on both the NYSE andNasdaqthat it registered the 2nd most extreme reading since 1984. Split markets have a strong tendency to be ‘not bullish.'” <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d471873a9bdc6304f914500d00fed2ee\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"438\"><blockquote>“昨天是近 40 年来最大的一次分割。纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克都有如此多的股票创下了 52 周高点和 52 周低点，创下了自 1984 年以来第二极端的读数。分拆市场有强烈的‘不看涨’倾向。”</blockquote> Whether you are bullish or bearish there is an argument to fit your agenda.<blockquote>无论你是看涨还是看跌，都有一个符合你议程的论点。</blockquote> Therein Lies The Rub<blockquote>问题就在这里</blockquote> YOUR personal bias&nbsp;may be leading you astray as&nbsp;“cognitive biases”&nbsp;impair investor returns over time.<blockquote>你的个人偏见可能会把你引入歧途 “认知偏差”随着时间的推移损害投资者回报。</blockquote> “Confirmation bias, also called&nbsp; my side &nbsp; bias , is the tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions or working hypotheses. It is a systematic error of inductive reasoning.” Therefore, it is important to consider&nbsp;both sides&nbsp;of the current debate in order to make logical, rather than emotional, decisions about current portfolio allocations and risk management.<blockquote>“确认偏差，也称为我这边 偏见是以证实自己先入为主的观念或工作假设的方式搜索、解释和记忆信息的倾向。这是归纳推理的系统性错误。”因此，考虑两边当前的辩论，以便对当前的投资组合分配和风险管理做出合乎逻辑的而不是情绪化的决定。</blockquote> Currently, the&nbsp;“bulls”&nbsp;are still in control of the market. The long-term running bull trend remains intact…for now.The chart below is a MONTHLY chart of the S&amp;P 500. Importantly, the bullish trend that began in 2009 remains intact. A correction back to that trendline would encompass a nearly 30% decline from last week’s close.<blockquote>目前，“公牛”仍然控制着市场。长期的牛市趋势仍然完好无损……就目前而言。下图是标普500的月图。重要的是，始于2009年的看涨趋势仍然完好无损。如果回到该趋势线，则将比上周收盘价下跌近 30%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d224c846fa83d3e58890ac5eedf2155e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"673\"><blockquote></blockquote> However, the real question is the sustainability of the market at current levels given the rather extreme deviation from long-term means.<blockquote>然而，真正的问题是，鉴于与长期均值的极端偏差，市场在当前水平上的可持续性。</blockquote> For those of you who like analogs, the most comparable period historically is the 1998-1999 market“melt-up.”During that period, the market bounced off support and then began a 60%“melt-up”to the final peak in 2000. Currently, from the March lows, the S&amp;P has risen by nearly 60%. In both cases, the negative divergence in relative strength combined with grossly extended markets did not work out well.<blockquote>对于那些喜欢类似物的人来说，历史上最具可比性的时期是1998-1999年的市场“融化。”在此期间，市场从支撑位反弹，然后开始上涨 60%“融化”2000年达到最后的顶峰。目前，自3月份低点以来，标准普尔指数已上涨近60%。在这两种情况下，相对实力的负背离加上严重扩张的市场并没有很好地发挥作用。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0817ed8ab27aa3d7f3b036fc5dc09b14\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"673\"><blockquote></blockquote> Continue To Focus On Risk Controls<blockquote>持续关注风险控制</blockquote> The big question right now is whether the correction that began a couple of weeks ago is over?<blockquote>现在最大的问题是几周前开始的调整是否已经结束？</blockquote> I would not be surprised to see a reasonable bounce in the market given the passage of the stimulus, and short-term oversold conditions. Such certainly continues to support the“economic recovery”story. Unfortunately, once the stimulus runs through the system, the markets will again face economic realities.<blockquote>鉴于刺激措施的通过和短期超卖情况，如果看到市场出现合理的反弹，我不会感到惊讶。这肯定会继续支持“经济复苏”故事。不幸的是，一旦刺激措施贯穿整个体系，市场将再次面临经济现实。</blockquote> For all of these reasons, we continue to hold slightly higher levels of cash and continue to focus on basic risk management controls. As such, over the next couple of weeks we will likely:<blockquote>基于所有这些原因，我们继续持有略高的现金水平，并继续专注于基本的风险管理控制。因此，在接下来的几周内，我们可能会：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Sell positions that simply are not working.If they were not working in the strongly rising market and failed to hold support during the decline, acknowledge your thesis is wrong.Investment Rule:&nbsp;Cut losers short.</li> <li>Trim winning positions back to original portfolio weightings.&nbsp;This allows you to harvest profits but remain invested in positions that are working.&nbsp;Investment Rule:&nbsp;Let winners run.</li> <li>Retain cash raised from sales&nbsp;for opportunities&nbsp;to purchase investments later at a better price.&nbsp;Investment Rule:&nbsp;Sell High, Buy Low</li> </ol> While&nbsp;“bearish”&nbsp;concerns are often dismissed when markets are rising, it does not mean they aren’t valid.Unfortunately, by the time the&nbsp;“herd”is alerted to a shift in overall sentiment, the stampede for the exits will already be well underway.<blockquote><ol><li>出售根本不起作用的头寸。如果他们在强劲上涨的市场中没有发挥作用，并且在下跌期间未能保持支撑，那么承认你的论点是错误的。投资规则：做空输家。</li><li>将获胜头寸调整回原始投资组合权重。这可以让你获得利润，但仍然投资于有效的头寸。投资法则：让赢家跑。</li><li>保留销售所得现金 寻找机会以后以更好的价格购买投资。投资法则：高抛低吸</li></ol>而“看跌”当市场上涨时，担忧往往会被打消，但这并不意味着这些担忧是不成立的。不幸的是，当“羊群”意识到整体情绪的转变，退出潮已经开始。</blockquote> Is the current bull market dead?&nbsp;I don’t know, and trying to predict the market is quite pointless.&nbsp;The risk for investors is the&nbsp;“willful blindness of change”until it is far too late to matter.&nbsp;Just remember, no one thought the“bull market was dead”in 1999 and 2007 either.<blockquote>当前的牛市死了吗？我不知道，试图预测市场毫无意义。投资者面临的风险是“故意对变革视而不见”直到为时已晚。记住，没人认为“牛市已死”1999年和2007年。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-the-bull-market-is-on-shaky-ground/\">Real Investment Advice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-the-bull-market-is-on-shaky-ground/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178216373","content_text":"Last week’s sell-off left the “bull market” on shaky ground.\nThe big question for investors at the moment is whether the 11-year old bull market is ending or is this just a“pause that refreshes?”\nWhile the optimistic“hope”is that this is just a pause within a continuing“bull market”advance, from a money management standpoint getting the answer“right”is vastly more important to long-term investing outcomes.\nThe easiest way to approach this analysis is to start with the following basic premise:\n\n“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, and die on euphoria.”\n-Sir John Templeton\n\nEuphoria Has Been Evident\nThere is little argument that“euphoria”has not been evident in the market recently. From excessive levels of call-option buying by small traders to chasing the most shorted stocks in the market. As I noted just recently in“No One Is Bearish:”\n\nFund managers’ allocation to cash is down to 3.8%, the lowest since March 2013.Such was just before the “taper tantrum” era under former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.\n\n\n\nAllocations to stocks and commodities are the highest since February 2011.\n\n\nThe point here, of course, is that when everyone is“in the pool,”it doesn’t take much to create a reversion.\nThe Value Trade Is No Longer A Value\nSuch is what we begin to see last week, as the previous favorite“momentum”trades were swapped in a massive rotation to“value.”Given the massively overbought extremes in the“value”plays, that rotation is likely going to be akin to“jumping from the frying pan into the fire.”\nSmall-cap value is more extended currently than at any point over the last 20-years using weekly data. With the index well into 3-standard deviation territory, extremely deviated from long-term means, and grossly overvalued, the eventual reversion will be brutal.\n\nThe same is seen in the weekly chart of the Russell 2000 index which picks up the Mid-cap exposure as well. With valuations in these stocks well ahead of even the most optimistic economic outlook, the risk of disappointment is high.\n\nThe poster child for the economic reopening and value rotation trade has been energy. Like small-cap value and the Russell 2000, energy is also exceedingly extended, overbought, and deviated from long-term means. At every similar point in history, the reversion was brutal.\n\nThis time is unlikely to be different.\nIntermediate Indicators Worrisome\nOur intermediate-term indicators, (which utilizes weekly data), continue to paint a more concerning picture. Turn your focus to the middle panel of“money flows.” Despite the “seeming” exuberance of the market over the last few months, money flows have continued to weaken.\nIn early November, we recommended increasing equity exposure to portfolios as the “buy signal”was triggered. However, beginning in February, that signal reversed leading to continued downward price pressures.\nWhile the market could indeed bounce in the short-term, the decline in “money flows,” and the convergence of “sell signals,” does increase our concern of a bigger decline over the next month or so.\n\nThe problem with the indicator is that it does not distinguish between declines. The“sell signal”in September and October of 2020 coincided with two 10% declines. The signal in March was a 35% crash over a 3-week period.\nThere is certainly a risk of a larger decline given the confirming MACD sell signal in the lower panel. I suspect in the near-term declines will still be met with buyers as the“momentum”chase remains.However, the risk of a deeper correction is certainly possible if something “spooks”the market, so risk management remains key.\nLonger-Term Concerns\nOne of the more concerning charts we have been monitoring for some time is the monthly expanding price pattern. Once again, the market has struggled with the top of the expanding pattern as relative strength continues to deteriorate. With the markets extremely extended on a monthly basis, as denoted by the red arrows, such periods have had less positive outcomes for investors.\n\n\nMonthly price charts are \nNOT TO BE USED\n for trading portfolios.\n Indications are only valid at the end of the month, and they are slow to turn.\n\nDue to the lag, most short-term focused investors make assumptions the indications are “wrong” this time.  However, history tends to prove that extreme market extensions rarely resolve themselves to the upside.\nOf course, what causes the eventual “reversion” is always an unexpected, exogenous event when sends investors scrambling for exits where there are few buyers.\nManaging Past The Noise\nThere are many arguments for both bulls and bears. On the bullish side, the passage of another stimulus bill will provide a short-term“sugar rush” in the markets and economy.\nOn the bearish side, everything from extreme exuberance to over valuation poses a longer-term threat. As noted by SentimenTrader over the weekend:\n\n“Yesterday was the biggest split in almost 40 years. There were so many stocks hitting 52-week highs AND 52-week lows on both the NYSE andNasdaqthat it registered the 2nd most extreme reading since 1984.\nSplit markets have a strong tendency to be ‘not bullish.'”\n\n\nWhether you are bullish or bearish there is an argument to fit your agenda.\nTherein Lies The Rub\nYOUR personal bias may be leading you astray as “cognitive biases” impair investor returns over time.\n\n“Confirmation bias, also called \nmy side\n \nbias\n, is the tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions or working hypotheses. It is a systematic error of inductive reasoning.”\n\nTherefore, it is important to consider both sides of the current debate in order to make logical, rather than emotional, decisions about current portfolio allocations and risk management.\nCurrently, the “bulls” are still in control of the market. The long-term running bull trend remains intact…for now.The chart below is a MONTHLY chart of the S&P 500. Importantly, the bullish trend that began in 2009 remains intact. A correction back to that trendline would encompass a nearly 30% decline from last week’s close.\n\nHowever, the real question is the sustainability of the market at current levels given the rather extreme deviation from long-term means.\nFor those of you who like analogs, the most comparable period historically is the 1998-1999 market“melt-up.”During that period, the market bounced off support and then began a 60%“melt-up”to the final peak in 2000. Currently, from the March lows, the S&P has risen by nearly 60%. In both cases, the negative divergence in relative strength combined with grossly extended markets did not work out well.\n\nContinue To Focus On Risk Controls\nThe big question right now is whether the correction that began a couple of weeks ago is over?\nI would not be surprised to see a reasonable bounce in the market given the passage of the stimulus, and short-term oversold conditions. Such certainly continues to support the“economic recovery”story. Unfortunately, once the stimulus runs through the system, the markets will again face economic realities.\nFor all of these reasons, we continue to hold slightly higher levels of cash and continue to focus on basic risk management controls. As such, over the next couple of weeks we will likely:\n\nSell positions that simply are not working.If they were not working in the strongly rising market and failed to hold support during the decline, acknowledge your thesis is wrong.Investment Rule: Cut losers short.\nTrim winning positions back to original portfolio weightings. This allows you to harvest profits but remain invested in positions that are working. Investment Rule: Let winners run.\nRetain cash raised from sales for opportunities to purchase investments later at a better price. Investment Rule: Sell High, Buy Low\n\nWhile “bearish” concerns are often dismissed when markets are rising, it does not mean they aren’t valid.Unfortunately, by the time the “herd”is alerted to a shift in overall sentiment, the stampede for the exits will already be well underway.\nIs the current bull market dead? I don’t know, and trying to predict the market is quite pointless. The risk for investors is the “willful blindness of change”until it is far too late to matter. Just remember, no one thought the“bull market was dead”in 1999 and 2007 either.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2433,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/323785418"}