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2021-03-15

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‘There will be no peace’ until 10-year Treasury yield hits 2%, strategist says<blockquote>策略师表示，在 10 年期国债收益率达到 2% 之前，“不会有和平”</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":322970046,"tweetId":"322970046","gmtCreate":1615770132485,"gmtModify":1703492668733,"author":{"id":3573188380003001,"idStr":"3573188380003001","authorId":3573188380003001,"authorIdStr":"3573188380003001","name":"Shans","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d02cb23ad0184feeff1044e729ed1632","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like and comment</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like and comment</body></html>","text":"Like and comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322970046","repostId":1177248020,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177248020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615769942,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1177248020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-15 08:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"‘There will be no peace’ until 10-year Treasury yield hits 2%, strategist says<blockquote>策略师表示，在 10 年期国债收益率达到 2% 之前，“不会有和平”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177248020","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Futile to fight rising U.S. dollar while yields remain on rise: Soc Gen’s Juckes\nA bond market sello","content":"Futile to fight rising U.S. dollar while yields remain on rise: Soc Gen’s Juckes<blockquote>在收益率仍在上升的情况下对抗美元上涨是徒劳的： Soc Gen 的缺点</blockquote> A bond market selloff is calling the tune across financial markets, including for foreign exchange. Equilibrium is unlikely to return until the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note hits 2%, argued one well-known analyst on Friday.<blockquote>债券市场抛售正在影响包括外汇市场在内的整个金融市场。一位知名分析师周五表示，在基准 10 年期美国国债收益率达到 2% 之前，均衡不太可能恢复。</blockquote> “There will be no peace until U.S. 10s reach 2%,” said Kit Juckes, global macro strategist at Société Générale, in a note.<blockquote>“法国兴业银行（Société Générale）全球宏观策略师基特-朱克斯（Kit Juckes）在一份报告中说：”在美国 10 年代达到 2% 之前，不会有和平。</blockquote> A pair of U.S. government bond auctions, which had been a source of nervousness, went off without any major problems over the past week, with yields settling into a new and higher range, Juckes said. The 10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;rose 8.3 basis points to 1.634% last week. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.<blockquote>朱克斯表示，过去一周令人紧张的两次美国政府债券拍卖顺利进行，没有出现任何重大问题，收益率稳定在一个新的更高范围内。10年期国债收益率上周上涨8.3个基点至1.634%。收益率和债券价格走势相反。</blockquote> Rising yields have triggered rotation away from growth-oriented stocks, including large-cap, tech-related shares, into more cyclically sensitive and often value-oriented stocks and sectors. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;slipped into correction territory, defined as pullback of 10% from a recent peak, as yields continued to climb, while the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;have traded at records. All three benchmarks finished positive on the week, with the Nasdaq bouncing on days when the climb in yields relented.<blockquote>收益率上升引发了人们从成长型股票（包括大盘科技相关股票）转向对周期性更为敏感且通常以价值为导向的股票和行业。随着收益率继续攀升，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数滑入调整区域，定义为从近期峰值回调 10%，而标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数的交易价格均创下历史新高。本周所有三个基准指数均以正值收盘，纳斯达克在收益率攀升放缓的日子里反弹。</blockquote> The rising yields have resulted in renewed strength for the dollar, which Juckes said he wasn’t eager to fight at the moment. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index,a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, was up 0.3% Friday and has gained 0.9% so far in March.<blockquote>收益率上升导致美元重新走强，朱克斯表示他目前并不急于与美元抗衡。ICE 美元指数是衡量美元兑一篮子六个主要竞争对手货币的指标，周五上涨 0.3%，3 月份迄今已上涨 0.9%。</blockquote> “The pattern seems clear enough: The equity market is seeing a sector rotation but not a correction; the bond market is seeking a new equilibrium in the light of a vastly improved economic outlook in both the U.S. and elsewhere; some policy makers are pushing back against the bond moves, with little success,” Juckes wrote.<blockquote>“朱克斯写道：”这种模式似乎很明显： 股票市场正在经历行业轮动，但并未出现回调；鉴于美国和其他地区的经济前景大为改善，债券市场正在寻求新的平衡；一些政策制定者正在抵制债券举措，但收效甚微。</blockquote> “As yields rise, the dollar rallies, but when yields settle at a new level, the dollar drops back. The pattern probably goes on until bonds find an equilibrium, unlikely before 10-year note yields have a 2-handle, judging by taper tantrums and past cycles,” he said.<blockquote>“当收益率上升时，美元就会上涨，但当收益率稳定在一个新的水平时，美元就会回落。这种模式可能会持续下去，直到债券找到平衡，而从缩减债券规模和过去的周期来看，10 年期国债收益率不太可能出现双把手，”他说。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ad831db163402d8e89e30e64ad84ff5\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"449\">SOCIETE GENERALE<blockquote>兴业银行</blockquote> Meanwhile, the dollar/Japanese yen&nbsp;and euro/Swiss franc&nbsp;currency pairs are the most sensitive to higher Treasury yields (see chart above), Juckes said, noting that dollar/yen typically correlates more closely with real, or inflation-adjusted, US. yields than nominal rates, while euro/Swiss franc tends to track more closely with nominal yields.<blockquote>与此同时，Juckes表示，美元/日元和欧元/瑞士法郎货币对对国债收益率上升最为敏感（见上图），并指出美元/日元通常与实际或通胀调整后的美国相关性更密切。收益率高于名义利率，而欧元/瑞士法郎往往与名义收益率更紧密地跟踪。</blockquote> Instead, this year has seen all four — real and nominal yields, dollar/yen and euro/Swissfranc — move higher largely in lockstep, he said.<blockquote>相反，他表示，今年所有四种指标——实际收益率和名义收益率、美元/日元和欧元/瑞士法郎——基本上同步走高。</blockquote> “ While U.S. yields rise, EUR/CHF and USD/JPY are likely to go on trending higher, too, at least while the momentum is this strong. If we get to 2% 10-year note yields in the coming weeks, dumb extrapolation could take USD/JPY to 111, and EUR/CHF to 0.96,” he said. “Maybe too simplistic, but these moves are too strong to fight in the short-term.”<blockquote>“在美国国债收益率上升的同时，欧元/瑞士法郎和美元/日元也可能继续走高，至少在势头如此强劲的情况下是这样。如果我们在未来几周内达到 2% 的 10 年期国债收益率，愚蠢的推断可能会使美元/日元达到 111，欧元/瑞士法郎达到 0.96，”他说。“也许过于简单化，但这些举措在短期内过于强硬”。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>‘There will be no peace’ until 10-year Treasury yield hits 2%, strategist says<blockquote>策略师表示，在 10 年期国债收益率达到 2% 之前，“不会有和平”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n‘There will be no peace’ until 10-year Treasury yield hits 2%, strategist says<blockquote>策略师表示，在 10 年期国债收益率达到 2% 之前，“不会有和平”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-03-15 08:59\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFutile to fight rising U.S. dollar while yields remain on rise: Soc Gen’s Juckes<blockquote>在收益率仍在上升的情况下对抗美元上涨是徒劳的： Soc Gen 的缺点</blockquote> A bond market selloff is calling the tune across financial markets, including for foreign exchange. Equilibrium is unlikely to return until the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note hits 2%, argued one well-known analyst on Friday.<blockquote>债券市场抛售正在影响包括外汇市场在内的整个金融市场。一位知名分析师周五表示，在基准 10 年期美国国债收益率达到 2% 之前，均衡不太可能恢复。</blockquote> “There will be no peace until U.S. 10s reach 2%,” said Kit Juckes, global macro strategist at Société Générale, in a note.<blockquote>“法国兴业银行（Société Générale）全球宏观策略师基特-朱克斯（Kit Juckes）在一份报告中说：”在美国 10 年代达到 2% 之前，不会有和平。</blockquote> A pair of U.S. government bond auctions, which had been a source of nervousness, went off without any major problems over the past week, with yields settling into a new and higher range, Juckes said. The 10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;rose 8.3 basis points to 1.634% last week. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.<blockquote>朱克斯表示，过去一周令人紧张的两次美国政府债券拍卖顺利进行，没有出现任何重大问题，收益率稳定在一个新的更高范围内。10年期国债收益率上周上涨8.3个基点至1.634%。收益率和债券价格走势相反。</blockquote> Rising yields have triggered rotation away from growth-oriented stocks, including large-cap, tech-related shares, into more cyclically sensitive and often value-oriented stocks and sectors. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;slipped into correction territory, defined as pullback of 10% from a recent peak, as yields continued to climb, while the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;have traded at records. All three benchmarks finished positive on the week, with the Nasdaq bouncing on days when the climb in yields relented.<blockquote>收益率上升引发了人们从成长型股票（包括大盘科技相关股票）转向对周期性更为敏感且通常以价值为导向的股票和行业。随着收益率继续攀升，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数滑入调整区域，定义为从近期峰值回调 10%，而标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数的交易价格均创下历史新高。本周所有三个基准指数均以正值收盘，纳斯达克在收益率攀升放缓的日子里反弹。</blockquote> The rising yields have resulted in renewed strength for the dollar, which Juckes said he wasn’t eager to fight at the moment. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index,a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, was up 0.3% Friday and has gained 0.9% so far in March.<blockquote>收益率上升导致美元重新走强，朱克斯表示他目前并不急于与美元抗衡。ICE 美元指数是衡量美元兑一篮子六个主要竞争对手货币的指标，周五上涨 0.3%，3 月份迄今已上涨 0.9%。</blockquote> “The pattern seems clear enough: The equity market is seeing a sector rotation but not a correction; the bond market is seeking a new equilibrium in the light of a vastly improved economic outlook in both the U.S. and elsewhere; some policy makers are pushing back against the bond moves, with little success,” Juckes wrote.<blockquote>“朱克斯写道：”这种模式似乎很明显： 股票市场正在经历行业轮动，但并未出现回调；鉴于美国和其他地区的经济前景大为改善，债券市场正在寻求新的平衡；一些政策制定者正在抵制债券举措，但收效甚微。</blockquote> “As yields rise, the dollar rallies, but when yields settle at a new level, the dollar drops back. The pattern probably goes on until bonds find an equilibrium, unlikely before 10-year note yields have a 2-handle, judging by taper tantrums and past cycles,” he said.<blockquote>“当收益率上升时，美元就会上涨，但当收益率稳定在一个新的水平时，美元就会回落。这种模式可能会持续下去，直到债券找到平衡，而从缩减债券规模和过去的周期来看，10 年期国债收益率不太可能出现双把手，”他说。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ad831db163402d8e89e30e64ad84ff5\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"449\">SOCIETE GENERALE<blockquote>兴业银行</blockquote> Meanwhile, the dollar/Japanese yen&nbsp;and euro/Swiss franc&nbsp;currency pairs are the most sensitive to higher Treasury yields (see chart above), Juckes said, noting that dollar/yen typically correlates more closely with real, or inflation-adjusted, US. yields than nominal rates, while euro/Swiss franc tends to track more closely with nominal yields.<blockquote>与此同时，Juckes表示，美元/日元和欧元/瑞士法郎货币对对国债收益率上升最为敏感（见上图），并指出美元/日元通常与实际或通胀调整后的美国相关性更密切。收益率高于名义利率，而欧元/瑞士法郎往往与名义收益率更紧密地跟踪。</blockquote> Instead, this year has seen all four — real and nominal yields, dollar/yen and euro/Swissfranc — move higher largely in lockstep, he said.<blockquote>相反，他表示，今年所有四种指标——实际收益率和名义收益率、美元/日元和欧元/瑞士法郎——基本上同步走高。</blockquote> “ While U.S. yields rise, EUR/CHF and USD/JPY are likely to go on trending higher, too, at least while the momentum is this strong. If we get to 2% 10-year note yields in the coming weeks, dumb extrapolation could take USD/JPY to 111, and EUR/CHF to 0.96,” he said. “Maybe too simplistic, but these moves are too strong to fight in the short-term.”<blockquote>“在美国国债收益率上升的同时，欧元/瑞士法郎和美元/日元也可能继续走高，至少在势头如此强劲的情况下是这样。如果我们在未来几周内达到 2% 的 10 年期国债收益率，愚蠢的推断可能会使美元/日元达到 111，欧元/瑞士法郎达到 0.96，”他说。“也许过于简单化，但这些举措在短期内过于强硬”。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-peace-for-markets-until-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-2-strategist-says-11615577089?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-peace-for-markets-until-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-2-strategist-says-11615577089?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1177248020","content_text":"Futile to fight rising U.S. dollar while yields remain on rise: Soc Gen’s Juckes\nA bond market selloff is calling the tune across financial markets, including for foreign exchange. Equilibrium is unlikely to return until the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note hits 2%, argued one well-known analyst on Friday.\n“There will be no peace until U.S. 10s reach 2%,” said Kit Juckes, global macro strategist at Société Générale, in a note.\nA pair of U.S. government bond auctions, which had been a source of nervousness, went off without any major problems over the past week, with yields settling into a new and higher range, Juckes said. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 8.3 basis points to 1.634% last week. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.\nRising yields have triggered rotation away from growth-oriented stocks, including large-cap, tech-related shares, into more cyclically sensitive and often value-oriented stocks and sectors. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped into correction territory, defined as pullback of 10% from a recent peak, as yields continued to climb, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have traded at records. All three benchmarks finished positive on the week, with the Nasdaq bouncing on days when the climb in yields relented.\nThe rising yields have resulted in renewed strength for the dollar, which Juckes said he wasn’t eager to fight at the moment. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index,a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, was up 0.3% Friday and has gained 0.9% so far in March.\n“The pattern seems clear enough: The equity market is seeing a sector rotation but not a correction; the bond market is seeking a new equilibrium in the light of a vastly improved economic outlook in both the U.S. and elsewhere; some policy makers are pushing back against the bond moves, with little success,” Juckes wrote.\n“As yields rise, the dollar rallies, but when yields settle at a new level, the dollar drops back. The pattern probably goes on until bonds find an equilibrium, unlikely before 10-year note yields have a 2-handle, judging by taper tantrums and past cycles,” he said.\nSOCIETE GENERALE\nMeanwhile, the dollar/Japanese yen and euro/Swiss franc currency pairs are the most sensitive to higher Treasury yields (see chart above), Juckes said, noting that dollar/yen typically correlates more closely with real, or inflation-adjusted, US. yields than nominal rates, while euro/Swiss franc tends to track more closely with nominal yields.\nInstead, this year has seen all four — real and nominal yields, dollar/yen and euro/Swissfranc — move higher largely in lockstep, he said.\n“ While U.S. yields rise, EUR/CHF and USD/JPY are likely to go on trending higher, too, at least while the momentum is this strong. If we get to 2% 10-year note yields in the coming weeks, dumb extrapolation could take USD/JPY to 111, and EUR/CHF to 0.96,” he said. “Maybe too simplistic, but these moves are too strong to fight in the short-term.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZNmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/322970046"}