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2021-03-15

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Communication Challenges for the Fed Ahead of its March Meeting<blockquote>美联储三月会议前的沟通挑战</blockquote>

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While no change is expected at this meeting, the focus shifts to the way the Fed communicates its intentions and to future economic projections.<blockquote>美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）将于两天后举行FOMC会议和新闻发布会。虽然预计本次会议不会有任何变化，但焦点将转向美联储传达其意图的方式和未来经济预测。</blockquote> Two things influenced financial markets recently. First, the rise in the long-term interest rates. Long-term bond yields tend to rise when the economic recovery picks up, but the move higher triggers unwanted tightening of financial conditions. Second, the new round of fiscal stimulus approved in the United States led to global GDP growth projections to rise by 1% or so.<blockquote>最近有两件事影响了金融市场。首先，长期利率的上升。当经济复苏加快时，长期债券收益率往往会上升，但这种上升会引发金融状况不必要的收紧。第二，美国批准的新一轮财政刺激导致全球GDP增长预测上升1%左右。</blockquote> At Wednesday’s meeting, the Fed must find a way to communicate markets that, while remaining accommodative, it still accounts for stronger economic growth. How to do that without being hawkish? The answer lies in the Fed’s “dots”.<blockquote>在周三的会议上，美联储必须找到一种方法向市场传达，在保持宽松政策的同时，它仍能带来更强劲的经济增长。如何做到这一点而不鹰派？答案就在美联储的“点”上。</blockquote> The Focus on the Fed’s Dots<blockquote>对美联储圆点的关注</blockquote> This week’s Fed decision is followed by the regular press conference. However, Wednesday’s event is a special one because the Fed will present its economic projections.<blockquote>本周美联储决议之后是例行新闻发布会。然而，周三的事件很特殊，因为美联储将公布其经济预测。</blockquote> For financial markets, a certain part is extremely important – the one that shows the FOMC members’ future rate projections. More precisely, each member projects the federal funds rate for the next three years. The projections are then averaged and a dot is plotted on a chart showing the potential increase or decrease of future rates. At this meeting, the Fed’s challenge is to show its willingness to keep an accommodative monetary policy and, at the same time, to account for future growth. The dots may help to send the right signal.<blockquote>对于金融市场来说，某个部分极其重要——显示FOMC成员未来利率预测的部分。更准确地说，每个成员都预测未来三年的联邦基金利率。然后对预测进行平均，并在图表上绘制一个点，显示未来利率的潜在增加或减少。在这次会议上，美联储面临的挑战是表明其保持宽松货币政策的意愿，同时考虑到未来的增长。这些点可能有助于发送正确的信号。</blockquote> In other words, the “dot plot” is unlikely to signal a rate hike before 2024. However, the decision to signal or not a liftoff in 2023, for instance, is not an easy one. Some voices argue that if the Fed decides to signal a liftoff in 2023, such a decision would be counterproductive. Why would the Fed do so?<blockquote>也就是说，“点阵图”不太可能预示2024年之前加息。然而，例如，决定是否在2023年发出发射信号并不容易。一些声音认为，如果美联储决定在2023年发出加息信号，这样的决定将适得其反。美联储为什么要这么做？</blockquote> The main argument comes from inflationary pressures. The months ahead will likely put the Fed under pressure as inflation is projected to overshoot the 2% target. By signaling a rate increase in 2023, two years from now, the Fed may choose to strike first, preemptively, to taper higher inflation expectations. The risk, however, is that such a move will weaken its forward guidance.<blockquote>主要论点来自通胀压力。未来几个月可能会给美联储带来压力，因为通胀预计将超过2%的目标。通过在两年后的2023年发出加息信号，美联储可能会选择先发制人，以降低更高的通胀预期。然而，风险在于此举将削弱其前瞻性指引。</blockquote> One thing is for sure – whatever the Fed decides on Wednesday, the USD’s volatility will be higher than average.<blockquote>有一点是肯定的——无论美联储周三做出什么决定，美元的波动性都将高于平均水平。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1615437168461","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Communication Challenges for the Fed Ahead of its March Meeting<blockquote>美联储三月会议前的沟通挑战</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCommunication Challenges for the Fed Ahead of its March Meeting<blockquote>美联储三月会议前的沟通挑战</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nVantagePoint2021-03-15 20:51\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) is holding its FOMC meeting and press conference two days from now. While no change is expected at this meeting, the focus shifts to the way the Fed communicates its intentions and to future economic projections.<blockquote>美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）将于两天后举行FOMC会议和新闻发布会。虽然预计本次会议不会有任何变化，但焦点将转向美联储传达其意图的方式和未来经济预测。</blockquote> Two things influenced financial markets recently. First, the rise in the long-term interest rates. Long-term bond yields tend to rise when the economic recovery picks up, but the move higher triggers unwanted tightening of financial conditions. Second, the new round of fiscal stimulus approved in the United States led to global GDP growth projections to rise by 1% or so.<blockquote>最近有两件事影响了金融市场。首先，长期利率的上升。当经济复苏加快时，长期债券收益率往往会上升，但这种上升会引发金融状况不必要的收紧。第二，美国批准的新一轮财政刺激导致全球GDP增长预测上升1%左右。</blockquote> At Wednesday’s meeting, the Fed must find a way to communicate markets that, while remaining accommodative, it still accounts for stronger economic growth. How to do that without being hawkish? The answer lies in the Fed’s “dots”.<blockquote>在周三的会议上，美联储必须找到一种方法向市场传达，在保持宽松政策的同时，它仍能带来更强劲的经济增长。如何做到这一点而不鹰派？答案就在美联储的“点”上。</blockquote> The Focus on the Fed’s Dots<blockquote>对美联储圆点的关注</blockquote> This week’s Fed decision is followed by the regular press conference. However, Wednesday’s event is a special one because the Fed will present its economic projections.<blockquote>本周美联储决议之后是例行新闻发布会。然而，周三的事件很特殊，因为美联储将公布其经济预测。</blockquote> For financial markets, a certain part is extremely important – the one that shows the FOMC members’ future rate projections. More precisely, each member projects the federal funds rate for the next three years. The projections are then averaged and a dot is plotted on a chart showing the potential increase or decrease of future rates. At this meeting, the Fed’s challenge is to show its willingness to keep an accommodative monetary policy and, at the same time, to account for future growth. The dots may help to send the right signal.<blockquote>对于金融市场来说，某个部分极其重要——显示FOMC成员未来利率预测的部分。更准确地说，每个成员都预测未来三年的联邦基金利率。然后对预测进行平均，并在图表上绘制一个点，显示未来利率的潜在增加或减少。在这次会议上，美联储面临的挑战是表明其保持宽松货币政策的意愿，同时考虑到未来的增长。这些点可能有助于发送正确的信号。</blockquote> In other words, the “dot plot” is unlikely to signal a rate hike before 2024. However, the decision to signal or not a liftoff in 2023, for instance, is not an easy one. Some voices argue that if the Fed decides to signal a liftoff in 2023, such a decision would be counterproductive. Why would the Fed do so?<blockquote>也就是说，“点阵图”不太可能预示2024年之前加息。然而，例如，决定是否在2023年发出发射信号并不容易。一些声音认为，如果美联储决定在2023年发出加息信号，这样的决定将适得其反。美联储为什么要这么做？</blockquote> The main argument comes from inflationary pressures. The months ahead will likely put the Fed under pressure as inflation is projected to overshoot the 2% target. By signaling a rate increase in 2023, two years from now, the Fed may choose to strike first, preemptively, to taper higher inflation expectations. The risk, however, is that such a move will weaken its forward guidance.<blockquote>主要论点来自通胀压力。未来几个月可能会给美联储带来压力，因为通胀预计将超过2%的目标。通过在两年后的2023年发出加息信号，美联储可能会选择先发制人，以降低更高的通胀预期。然而，风险在于此举将削弱其前瞻性指引。</blockquote> One thing is for sure – whatever the Fed decides on Wednesday, the USD’s volatility will be higher than average.<blockquote>有一点是肯定的——无论美联储周三做出什么决定，美元的波动性都将高于平均水平。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/communication-challenges-for-the-fed-ahead-of-its-march-meeting/\">VantagePoint</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/communication-challenges-for-the-fed-ahead-of-its-march-meeting/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198729256","content_text":"The Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) is holding its FOMC meeting and press conference two days from now. While no change is expected at this meeting, the focus shifts to the way the Fed communicates its intentions and to future economic projections.\nTwo things influenced financial markets recently. First, the rise in the long-term interest rates. Long-term bond yields tend to rise when the economic recovery picks up, but the move higher triggers unwanted tightening of financial conditions. Second, the new round of fiscal stimulus approved in the United States led to global GDP growth projections to rise by 1% or so.\nAt Wednesday’s meeting, the Fed must find a way to communicate markets that, while remaining accommodative, it still accounts for stronger economic growth. How to do that without being hawkish? The answer lies in the Fed’s “dots”.\nThe Focus on the Fed’s Dots\nThis week’s Fed decision is followed by the regular press conference. However, Wednesday’s event is a special one because the Fed will present its economic projections.\nFor financial markets, a certain part is extremely important – the one that shows the FOMC members’ future rate projections. More precisely, each member projects the federal funds rate for the next three years. The projections are then averaged and a dot is plotted on a chart showing the potential increase or decrease of future rates. At this meeting, the Fed’s challenge is to show its willingness to keep an accommodative monetary policy and, at the same time, to account for future growth. The dots may help to send the right signal.\nIn other words, the “dot plot” is unlikely to signal a rate hike before 2024. However, the decision to signal or not a liftoff in 2023, for instance, is not an easy one. Some voices argue that if the Fed decides to signal a liftoff in 2023, such a decision would be counterproductive. Why would the Fed do so?\nThe main argument comes from inflationary pressures. The months ahead will likely put the Fed under pressure as inflation is projected to overshoot the 2% target. By signaling a rate increase in 2023, two years from now, the Fed may choose to strike first, preemptively, to taper higher inflation expectations. The risk, however, is that such a move will weaken its forward guidance.\nOne thing is for sure – whatever the Fed decides on Wednesday, the USD’s volatility will be higher than average.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1615,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/322256662"}