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PIMCO Rings The Alarm Over China's Sliding Credit Impulse<blockquote>太平洋投资管理公司对中国信贷冲动下滑敲响警钟</blockquote>

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Beijing sounds less sanguine about 2021.<blockquote>1.北京对2021年听起来不那么乐观。</blockquote> The government set the&nbsp;growth target&nbsp;this year at “above 6%,” well below economists’ forecasts of 8%. A 6% year-on-year GDP expansion implies zero growth from Q4 2020. Meanwhile, the budget deficit is pegged at 3.2% of GDP, lower than the record 3.6% last year, but higher than the 3% consensus. Taken together, the government seems less upbeat than most economists.<blockquote>政府将今年的增长目标定为“6%以上”，远低于经济学家预测的8%。GDP同比增长6%意味着从2020年第四季度开始零增长。与此同时，预算赤字占GDP的3.2%，低于去年创纪录的3.6%，但高于3%的共识。总的来说，政府似乎没有大多数经济学家乐观。</blockquote> Granted, 6% is the floor, not the ceiling for growth. Beijing may have intentionally set a low bar this year so that it could target a similar growth rate in 2022 to project the image of stability. The economy may turn out to be stronger.<blockquote>诚然，6%是增长的下限，而不是上限。北京今年可能有意设定了一个较低的标准，以便在2022年设定类似的增长率，以展示稳定的形象。经济可能会变得更加强劲。</blockquote> In any case, even if the government ensures it won’t yank stimulus abruptly, gradual tapering in credit growth is already well under way. As first discussed in December in \"In Historic Reversal, China's Credit Impulse Just Peaked: What This Means For Global Markets\", China's credit impulse, or the change of new credit as a percentage of GDP,peaked in October and is following the similar downward path of the previous two credit cycles in 2013 and 2016.At this rate, the gauge could turn negative in the second half of the year.<blockquote>无论如何，即使政府确保不会突然取消刺激措施，信贷增长的逐步缩减已经在进行中。正如12月在《历史性逆转中，中国信贷冲动刚刚见顶：这对全球市场意味着什么》中首次讨论的那样，中国的信贷冲动，或者说新增信贷占GDP比例的变化，10月见顶，并遵循2013年和2016年前两个信贷周期类似的下行路径。按照这个速度，该指标可能会在今年下半年转为负值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e179f836c7c9e56233bb286ab859839\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"315\">In a&nbsp;note&nbsp;on Friday,Pimco estimated that the credit impulse will fall to -3.5% of GDP by year-end, from a peak above 9% in 2020.All else equal, it may slow China’s economy to below-trend levels by late 2022, the firm’s&nbsp;Gene Frieda&nbsp;and&nbsp;Carol Liao&nbsp;wrote.<blockquote>在周五的一份报告中，太平洋投资管理公司估计，到年底，信贷冲动将从2020年9%以上的峰值降至GDP的-3.5%。该公司的吉恩·弗里达(Gene Frieda)和卡罗尔·廖(Carol Liao)写道，在其他条件相同的情况下，到2022年底，中国经济可能会放缓至低于趋势水平。</blockquote> What does this mean? Tighter liquidity is likely to lead to stress in China’s corporate debt market, they wrote (echoing whatZero Hedge wrote in December).While a soft-landing is achievable and the yuan remains attractive, the drag from China’s economy next year suggests that “developed economies may require stimulus for longer than currently appreciated.”<blockquote>这是什么意思？他们写道，流动性收紧可能会导致中国企业债务市场面临压力（呼应Zero Hedge去年12月所写的内容）。虽然软着陆是可以实现的，人民币仍具有吸引力，但明年中国经济的拖累表明，“发达经济体可能需要比目前升值更长时间的刺激。”</blockquote> 2. The path of least resistance is for bond yields to move higher.<blockquote>2.阻力最小的路径是债券收益率走高。</blockquote> Jerome Powell&nbsp;reiterated that the Fed is in no rush to reduce stimulus, but declined to say that rising bond yields are inconsistent with the central bank’s objective. That essentially gives the market a free rein to push yields higher, keeping Treasuries as the potential source of volatility for other markets.<blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔重申，美联储并不急于减少刺激措施，但拒绝表示债券收益率上升与央行的目标不一致。这实质上让市场可以自由推高收益率，使美国国债成为其他市场波动的潜在来源。</blockquote> Chinese bonds remain insulated from the global bond rout, given they have largely priced in economic normalization.<blockquote>中国债券仍然不受全球债券暴跌的影响，因为它们在很大程度上反映了经济正常化。</blockquote> 3. The trade-weighted yuan rose amid a stronger dollar.<blockquote>3.贸易加权人民币在美元走强的情况下上涨。</blockquote> While rising yields lifted the dollar, the yuan managed to outperform other currencies, sending the trade-weighted yuan close to the highest since 2018. The foreign bond inflows continue to be supportive.“Real money” investors, such as pension funds, have boosted their overweight on the yuan to the highest level since JPMorgan included Chinese bond in its benchmarks in February 2020, according to Bank of America.<blockquote>虽然收益率上升提振了美元，但人民币成功跑赢其他货币，使贸易加权人民币接近2018年以来的最高水平。外国债券流入继续提供支持。“真金白银美银表示，“自摩根大通2020年2月将中国债券纳入其基准以来，养老基金等投资者已将人民币跑赢大盘提高至最高水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39549acc83b2c8f6765a41aefea5604f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"252\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PIMCO Rings The Alarm Over China's Sliding Credit Impulse<blockquote>太平洋投资管理公司对中国信贷冲动下滑敲响警钟</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPIMCO Rings The Alarm Over China's Sliding Credit Impulse<blockquote>太平洋投资管理公司对中国信贷冲动下滑敲响警钟</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-03-08 11:19\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThree months afterZero Hedge subscriberswere first made aware of the biggest risk for the global economy, Pimco has finally caught up and is ringing the alarm as noted in the latest observations from Bloomberg macro commentator Ye Xie titled \"Pimco Warns of Risks From Beijing’s Credit Curtail.\"<blockquote>在零对冲订阅者首次意识到全球经济面临的最大风险三个月后，太平洋投资管理公司终于迎头赶上并敲响了警钟，正如彭博宏观评论员叶燮在题为“太平洋投资管理公司警告北京信贷紧缩带来的风险。”</blockquote> 1. Beijing sounds less sanguine about 2021.<blockquote>1.北京对2021年听起来不那么乐观。</blockquote> The government set the&nbsp;growth target&nbsp;this year at “above 6%,” well below economists’ forecasts of 8%. A 6% year-on-year GDP expansion implies zero growth from Q4 2020. Meanwhile, the budget deficit is pegged at 3.2% of GDP, lower than the record 3.6% last year, but higher than the 3% consensus. Taken together, the government seems less upbeat than most economists.<blockquote>政府将今年的增长目标定为“6%以上”，远低于经济学家预测的8%。GDP同比增长6%意味着从2020年第四季度开始零增长。与此同时，预算赤字占GDP的3.2%，低于去年创纪录的3.6%，但高于3%的共识。总的来说，政府似乎没有大多数经济学家乐观。</blockquote> Granted, 6% is the floor, not the ceiling for growth. Beijing may have intentionally set a low bar this year so that it could target a similar growth rate in 2022 to project the image of stability. The economy may turn out to be stronger.<blockquote>诚然，6%是增长的下限，而不是上限。北京今年可能有意设定了一个较低的标准，以便在2022年设定类似的增长率，以展示稳定的形象。经济可能会变得更加强劲。</blockquote> In any case, even if the government ensures it won’t yank stimulus abruptly, gradual tapering in credit growth is already well under way. As first discussed in December in \"In Historic Reversal, China's Credit Impulse Just Peaked: What This Means For Global Markets\", China's credit impulse, or the change of new credit as a percentage of GDP,peaked in October and is following the similar downward path of the previous two credit cycles in 2013 and 2016.At this rate, the gauge could turn negative in the second half of the year.<blockquote>无论如何，即使政府确保不会突然取消刺激措施，信贷增长的逐步缩减已经在进行中。正如12月在《历史性逆转中，中国信贷冲动刚刚见顶：这对全球市场意味着什么》中首次讨论的那样，中国的信贷冲动，或者说新增信贷占GDP比例的变化，10月见顶，并遵循2013年和2016年前两个信贷周期类似的下行路径。按照这个速度，该指标可能会在今年下半年转为负值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e179f836c7c9e56233bb286ab859839\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"315\">In a&nbsp;note&nbsp;on Friday,Pimco estimated that the credit impulse will fall to -3.5% of GDP by year-end, from a peak above 9% in 2020.All else equal, it may slow China’s economy to below-trend levels by late 2022, the firm’s&nbsp;Gene Frieda&nbsp;and&nbsp;Carol Liao&nbsp;wrote.<blockquote>在周五的一份报告中，太平洋投资管理公司估计，到年底，信贷冲动将从2020年9%以上的峰值降至GDP的-3.5%。该公司的吉恩·弗里达(Gene Frieda)和卡罗尔·廖(Carol Liao)写道，在其他条件相同的情况下，到2022年底，中国经济可能会放缓至低于趋势水平。</blockquote> What does this mean? Tighter liquidity is likely to lead to stress in China’s corporate debt market, they wrote (echoing whatZero Hedge wrote in December).While a soft-landing is achievable and the yuan remains attractive, the drag from China’s economy next year suggests that “developed economies may require stimulus for longer than currently appreciated.”<blockquote>这是什么意思？他们写道，流动性收紧可能会导致中国企业债务市场面临压力（呼应Zero Hedge去年12月所写的内容）。虽然软着陆是可以实现的，人民币仍具有吸引力，但明年中国经济的拖累表明，“发达经济体可能需要比目前升值更长时间的刺激。”</blockquote> 2. The path of least resistance is for bond yields to move higher.<blockquote>2.阻力最小的路径是债券收益率走高。</blockquote> Jerome Powell&nbsp;reiterated that the Fed is in no rush to reduce stimulus, but declined to say that rising bond yields are inconsistent with the central bank’s objective. That essentially gives the market a free rein to push yields higher, keeping Treasuries as the potential source of volatility for other markets.<blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔重申，美联储并不急于减少刺激措施，但拒绝表示债券收益率上升与央行的目标不一致。这实质上让市场可以自由推高收益率，使美国国债成为其他市场波动的潜在来源。</blockquote> Chinese bonds remain insulated from the global bond rout, given they have largely priced in economic normalization.<blockquote>中国债券仍然不受全球债券暴跌的影响，因为它们在很大程度上反映了经济正常化。</blockquote> 3. The trade-weighted yuan rose amid a stronger dollar.<blockquote>3.贸易加权人民币在美元走强的情况下上涨。</blockquote> While rising yields lifted the dollar, the yuan managed to outperform other currencies, sending the trade-weighted yuan close to the highest since 2018. The foreign bond inflows continue to be supportive.“Real money” investors, such as pension funds, have boosted their overweight on the yuan to the highest level since JPMorgan included Chinese bond in its benchmarks in February 2020, according to Bank of America.<blockquote>虽然收益率上升提振了美元，但人民币成功跑赢其他货币，使贸易加权人民币接近2018年以来的最高水平。外国债券流入继续提供支持。“真金白银美银表示，“自摩根大通2020年2月将中国债券纳入其基准以来，养老基金等投资者已将人民币跑赢大盘提高至最高水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39549acc83b2c8f6765a41aefea5604f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"252\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pimco-rings-alarm-over-chinas-sliding-credit-impulse\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pimco-rings-alarm-over-chinas-sliding-credit-impulse","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152787682","content_text":"Three months afterZero Hedge subscriberswere first made aware of the biggest risk for the global economy, Pimco has finally caught up and is ringing the alarm as noted in the latest observations from Bloomberg macro commentator Ye Xie titled \"Pimco Warns of Risks From Beijing’s Credit Curtail.\"\n1. Beijing sounds less sanguine about 2021.\nThe government set the growth target this year at “above 6%,” well below economists’ forecasts of 8%. A 6% year-on-year GDP expansion implies zero growth from Q4 2020. Meanwhile, the budget deficit is pegged at 3.2% of GDP, lower than the record 3.6% last year, but higher than the 3% consensus. Taken together, the government seems less upbeat than most economists.\nGranted, 6% is the floor, not the ceiling for growth. Beijing may have intentionally set a low bar this year so that it could target a similar growth rate in 2022 to project the image of stability. The economy may turn out to be stronger.\nIn any case, even if the government ensures it won’t yank stimulus abruptly, gradual tapering in credit growth is already well under way. As first discussed in December in \"In Historic Reversal, China's Credit Impulse Just Peaked: What This Means For Global Markets\", China's credit impulse, or the change of new credit as a percentage of GDP,peaked in October and is following the similar downward path of the previous two credit cycles in 2013 and 2016.At this rate, the gauge could turn negative in the second half of the year.\nIn a note on Friday,Pimco estimated that the credit impulse will fall to -3.5% of GDP by year-end, from a peak above 9% in 2020.All else equal, it may slow China’s economy to below-trend levels by late 2022, the firm’s Gene Frieda and Carol Liao wrote.\nWhat does this mean? Tighter liquidity is likely to lead to stress in China’s corporate debt market, they wrote (echoing whatZero Hedge wrote in December).While a soft-landing is achievable and the yuan remains attractive, the drag from China’s economy next year suggests that “developed economies may require stimulus for longer than currently appreciated.”\n2. The path of least resistance is for bond yields to move higher.\nJerome Powell reiterated that the Fed is in no rush to reduce stimulus, but declined to say that rising bond yields are inconsistent with the central bank’s objective. That essentially gives the market a free rein to push yields higher, keeping Treasuries as the potential source of volatility for other markets.\nChinese bonds remain insulated from the global bond rout, given they have largely priced in economic normalization.\n3. The trade-weighted yuan rose amid a stronger dollar.\nWhile rising yields lifted the dollar, the yuan managed to outperform other currencies, sending the trade-weighted yuan close to the highest since 2018. The foreign bond inflows continue to be supportive.“Real money” investors, such as pension funds, have boosted their overweight on the yuan to the highest level since JPMorgan included Chinese bond in its benchmarks in February 2020, according to Bank of America.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":352,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/320736522"}