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2021-03-07

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Opinion: Here’s proof that the bull market is alive and kicking<blockquote>观点：以下是牛市依然活跃的证据</blockquote>

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That’s the conclusion from a ranking of market sectors’ recent performance. Similar rankings from the final three months of past bull markets have exhibited distinct patterns, and there’s no evidence of such patterns currently.<blockquote>这三个市场板块在市场低迷前表现最佳，但现在情况并非如此。目前股市的低迷不太可能是这场令人难以置信的牛市的终结。这是对市场板块近期表现排名得出的结论。过去牛市最后三个月的类似排名也表现出不同的模式，目前还没有证据表明存在这种模式。</blockquote>No indicator is foolproof, but when I have relied on this indicator in the past it has acquitted itself well — most recently in July 2019, when — like now — the indicator was telling a bullish story. The S&amp;P 500 SPX, -1.34%, assuming reinvestment of dividends, is up more than 30% since then.<blockquote>没有一个指标是万无一失的，但当我过去依赖这个指标时，它表现得很好——最近是在 2019 年 7 月，当时——就像现在一样——该指标讲述了一个看涨的故事。假设股息再投资，标普500 SPX 指数为 -1.34%，此后上涨了 30% 以上。</blockquote>I base this indicator on research conducted by Ned Davis Research. According to its calculations, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Consumer Staples are the three S&amp;P 500 sectors that have performed the best, on average, in the last three months of all bull markets since 1970. They have not been the best over the past three months; in fact, these sectors occupy three of the four places at the bottom of a trailing-three-month ranking of the S&amp;P 500 sectors, as you can see from the chart below.<blockquote>我把这个指标建立在Ned Davis Research进行的研究之上。根据其计算，在1970年以来所有牛市的最后三个月中，非必需消费品、医疗保健和必需消费品是平均表现最好的三个标普500板块。在过去的三个月里，他们并不是最好的；事实上，正如您从下图中看到的，这些行业占据了过去三个月标普500行业排名垫底的四个位置中的三个。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d20bb030753e6466748750c5ff92028\" tg-width=\"2208\" tg-height=\"1087\"><blockquote></blockquote>The same story is told by focusing on the sectors that typically perform the worst in the final three months of bull markets. According to the Ned Davis data, these are Communication Services (assuming it to be the successor to the Telecommunications sector of old), Utilities and Energy. Once again we’re not seeing this pattern now. Energy currently is in first place for trailing three-month return and the Financials sector is in second place.<blockquote>同样的故事也通过关注牛市最后三个月表现最差的行业来讲述。根据Ned Davis的数据，这些是通信服务（假设它是旧电信部门的继承者）、公用事业和能源。我们现在又一次没有看到这种模式。能源目前在过去三个月的回报率中排名第一，金融行业排名第二。</blockquote>The rationale for this indicator is that certain sectors perform particularly poorly during economic downturns and therefore act as early warning signals of possible weakness. Energy is an obvious one, since energy usage typically plummets during a recession. Financials is another canary in the coal mine, since the inverted yield curve that often precedes a recession wreaks havoc with that industry’s profits.<blockquote>该指标的基本原理是，某些行业在经济衰退期间表现特别差，因此可以作为可能疲软的早期预警信号。能源是一个显而易见的问题，因为经济衰退期间能源使用量通常会骤降。金融业是煤矿中的另一个金丝雀，因为经济衰退之前往往会出现倒挂的收益率曲线，这对该行业的利润造成了严重破坏。</blockquote>On the plus side, many consumer stocks exhibit relative strength during downturns. So when a possible recession is on the horizon they often suffer less than Energy and Financials.<blockquote>从好的方面来看，许多消费类股票在经济低迷时期表现出相对强劲。因此，当可能的经济衰退即将来临时，它们遭受的损失往往小于能源和金融。</blockquote>You might question this indicator’s value, since it would be rare for the sector rankings to ever perfectly line up with the historical end-of-bull market averages — and therefore this indicator would never turn bearish. But even if those rankings don’t ever match up completely, there will be times when they are closer than others. One such occasion was in April 2015, when this indicator was close enough to the historical pattern to constitute an early warning of a market top. A bear market began in May of that year, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research.<blockquote>你可能会质疑这一指标的价值，因为行业排名很少能与历史牛市结束时的平均水平完全一致，因此这一指标永远不会变成看跌。但是，即使这些排名从未完全匹配，也会有比其他排名更接近的时候。其中一次发生在 2015 年 4 月，当时该指标足够接近历史模式，足以构成市场顶部的早期预警。根据 Ned Davis Research 维护的日历，熊市始于当年 5 月。</blockquote>No indicator is perfect. But especially in a week in which the market has fallen significantly, this indicator provides the bulls with at least some solace. It says you should start really worrying when the Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors are at or near the top of the trailing three-month rankings and Financials, Utilities, and Energy are at or near the bottom.<blockquote>没有一个指标是完美的。但尤其是在市场大幅下跌的一周里，这个指标至少给多头提供了一些安慰。报告称，当必需消费品、非必需消费品和医疗保健行业在过去三个月排名中处于或接近顶部，而金融、公用事业和能源处于或接近底部时，你应该开始真正担心。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Here’s proof that the bull market is alive and kicking<blockquote>观点： 以下是牛市依然活跃的证据</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Here’s proof that the bull market is alive and kicking<blockquote>观点： 以下是牛市依然活跃的证据</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketwatch2021-03-05 20:42\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThese 3 market sectors perform best before a market downturn and that’s not happening now.The stock market’s current downturn is unlikely to be the end of this incredible bull market. That’s the conclusion from a ranking of market sectors’ recent performance. Similar rankings from the final three months of past bull markets have exhibited distinct patterns, and there’s no evidence of such patterns currently.<blockquote>这三个市场板块在市场低迷前表现最佳，但现在情况并非如此。目前股市的低迷不太可能是这场令人难以置信的牛市的终结。这是对市场板块近期表现排名得出的结论。过去牛市最后三个月的类似排名也表现出不同的模式，目前还没有证据表明存在这种模式。</blockquote>No indicator is foolproof, but when I have relied on this indicator in the past it has acquitted itself well — most recently in July 2019, when — like now — the indicator was telling a bullish story. The S&amp;P 500 SPX, -1.34%, assuming reinvestment of dividends, is up more than 30% since then.<blockquote>没有一个指标是万无一失的，但当我过去依赖这个指标时，它表现得很好——最近是在 2019 年 7 月，当时——就像现在一样——该指标讲述了一个看涨的故事。假设股息再投资，标普500 SPX 指数为 -1.34%，此后上涨了 30% 以上。</blockquote>I base this indicator on research conducted by Ned Davis Research. According to its calculations, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Consumer Staples are the three S&amp;P 500 sectors that have performed the best, on average, in the last three months of all bull markets since 1970. They have not been the best over the past three months; in fact, these sectors occupy three of the four places at the bottom of a trailing-three-month ranking of the S&amp;P 500 sectors, as you can see from the chart below.<blockquote>我把这个指标建立在Ned Davis Research进行的研究之上。根据其计算，在1970年以来所有牛市的最后三个月中，非必需消费品、医疗保健和必需消费品是平均表现最好的三个标普500板块。在过去的三个月里，他们并不是最好的；事实上，正如您从下图中看到的，这些行业占据了过去三个月标普500行业排名垫底的四个位置中的三个。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d20bb030753e6466748750c5ff92028\" tg-width=\"2208\" tg-height=\"1087\"><blockquote></blockquote>The same story is told by focusing on the sectors that typically perform the worst in the final three months of bull markets. According to the Ned Davis data, these are Communication Services (assuming it to be the successor to the Telecommunications sector of old), Utilities and Energy. Once again we’re not seeing this pattern now. Energy currently is in first place for trailing three-month return and the Financials sector is in second place.<blockquote>同样的故事也通过关注牛市最后三个月表现最差的行业来讲述。根据Ned Davis的数据，这些是通信服务（假设它是旧电信部门的继承者）、公用事业和能源。我们现在又一次没有看到这种模式。能源目前在过去三个月的回报率中排名第一，金融行业排名第二。</blockquote>The rationale for this indicator is that certain sectors perform particularly poorly during economic downturns and therefore act as early warning signals of possible weakness. Energy is an obvious one, since energy usage typically plummets during a recession. Financials is another canary in the coal mine, since the inverted yield curve that often precedes a recession wreaks havoc with that industry’s profits.<blockquote>该指标的基本原理是，某些行业在经济衰退期间表现特别差，因此可以作为可能疲软的早期预警信号。能源是一个显而易见的问题，因为经济衰退期间能源使用量通常会骤降。金融业是煤矿中的另一个金丝雀，因为经济衰退之前往往会出现倒挂的收益率曲线，这对该行业的利润造成了严重破坏。</blockquote>On the plus side, many consumer stocks exhibit relative strength during downturns. So when a possible recession is on the horizon they often suffer less than Energy and Financials.<blockquote>从好的方面来看，许多消费类股票在经济低迷时期表现出相对强劲。因此，当可能的经济衰退即将来临时，它们遭受的损失往往小于能源和金融。</blockquote>You might question this indicator’s value, since it would be rare for the sector rankings to ever perfectly line up with the historical end-of-bull market averages — and therefore this indicator would never turn bearish. But even if those rankings don’t ever match up completely, there will be times when they are closer than others. One such occasion was in April 2015, when this indicator was close enough to the historical pattern to constitute an early warning of a market top. A bear market began in May of that year, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research.<blockquote>你可能会质疑这一指标的价值，因为行业排名很少能与历史牛市结束时的平均水平完全一致，因此这一指标永远不会变成看跌。但是，即使这些排名从未完全匹配，也会有比其他排名更接近的时候。其中一次发生在 2015 年 4 月，当时该指标足够接近历史模式，足以构成市场顶部的早期预警。根据 Ned Davis Research 维护的日历，熊市始于当年 5 月。</blockquote>No indicator is perfect. But especially in a week in which the market has fallen significantly, this indicator provides the bulls with at least some solace. It says you should start really worrying when the Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors are at or near the top of the trailing three-month rankings and Financials, Utilities, and Energy are at or near the bottom.<blockquote>没有一个指标是完美的。但尤其是在市场大幅下跌的一周里，这个指标至少给多头提供了一些安慰。报告称，当必需消费品、非必需消费品和医疗保健行业在过去三个月排名中处于或接近顶部，而金融、公用事业和能源处于或接近底部时，你应该开始真正担心。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-proof-that-the-bull-market-is-alive-and-kicking-11614888724?siteid=yhoof2\">Marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-proof-that-the-bull-market-is-alive-and-kicking-11614888724?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1185942211","content_text":"These 3 market sectors perform best before a market downturn and that’s not happening now.The stock market’s current downturn is unlikely to be the end of this incredible bull market. That’s the conclusion from a ranking of market sectors’ recent performance. Similar rankings from the final three months of past bull markets have exhibited distinct patterns, and there’s no evidence of such patterns currently.No indicator is foolproof, but when I have relied on this indicator in the past it has acquitted itself well — most recently in July 2019, when — like now — the indicator was telling a bullish story. The S&P 500 SPX, -1.34%, assuming reinvestment of dividends, is up more than 30% since then.I base this indicator on research conducted by Ned Davis Research. According to its calculations, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Consumer Staples are the three S&P 500 sectors that have performed the best, on average, in the last three months of all bull markets since 1970. They have not been the best over the past three months; in fact, these sectors occupy three of the four places at the bottom of a trailing-three-month ranking of the S&P 500 sectors, as you can see from the chart below.The same story is told by focusing on the sectors that typically perform the worst in the final three months of bull markets. According to the Ned Davis data, these are Communication Services (assuming it to be the successor to the Telecommunications sector of old), Utilities and Energy. Once again we’re not seeing this pattern now. Energy currently is in first place for trailing three-month return and the Financials sector is in second place.The rationale for this indicator is that certain sectors perform particularly poorly during economic downturns and therefore act as early warning signals of possible weakness. Energy is an obvious one, since energy usage typically plummets during a recession. Financials is another canary in the coal mine, since the inverted yield curve that often precedes a recession wreaks havoc with that industry’s profits.On the plus side, many consumer stocks exhibit relative strength during downturns. So when a possible recession is on the horizon they often suffer less than Energy and Financials.You might question this indicator’s value, since it would be rare for the sector rankings to ever perfectly line up with the historical end-of-bull market averages — and therefore this indicator would never turn bearish. But even if those rankings don’t ever match up completely, there will be times when they are closer than others. One such occasion was in April 2015, when this indicator was close enough to the historical pattern to constitute an early warning of a market top. A bear market began in May of that year, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research.No indicator is perfect. But especially in a week in which the market has fallen significantly, this indicator provides the bulls with at least some solace. It says you should start really worrying when the Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors are at or near the top of the trailing three-month rankings and Financials, Utilities, and Energy are at or near the bottom.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1207,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/320620758"}