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2021-03-07

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Opinion: Here’s proof that the bull market is alive and kicking<blockquote>观点：这证明牛市仍在继续</blockquote>

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That’s the conclusion from a ranking of market sectors’ recent performance. Similar rankings from the final three months of past bull markets have exhibited distinct patterns, and there’s no evidence of such patterns currently.<blockquote>这三个市场部门在市场低迷之前表现最好，但现在情况并非如此。股市目前的低迷不太可能是这场令人难以置信的牛市的终结。这是对市场板块近期表现排名得出的结论。过去牛市最后三个月的类似排名表现出不同的模式，目前没有证据表明存在这种模式。</blockquote>No indicator is foolproof, but when I have relied on this indicator in the past it has acquitted itself well — most recently in July 2019, when — like now — the indicator was telling a bullish story. The S&amp;P 500 SPX, -1.34%, assuming reinvestment of dividends, is up more than 30% since then.<blockquote>没有一个指标是万无一失的，但当我过去依赖这个指标时，它表现得很好——最近一次是在2019年7月，当时——就像现在一样——该指标正在讲述一个看涨的故事。假设股息再投资，标普500 SPX指数为-1.34%，自那以来上涨了30%以上。</blockquote>I base this indicator on research conducted by Ned Davis Research. According to its calculations, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Consumer Staples are the three S&amp;P 500 sectors that have performed the best, on average, in the last three months of all bull markets since 1970. They have not been the best over the past three months; in fact, these sectors occupy three of the four places at the bottom of a trailing-three-month ranking of the S&amp;P 500 sectors, as you can see from the chart below.<blockquote>我根据Ned Davis Research进行的研究得出这个指标。根据其计算，非必需消费品、医疗保健和必需消费品是自1970年以来所有牛市最后三个月平均表现最好的三个标普500行业。在过去的三个月里，他们并不是最好的；事实上，这些行业占据了过去三个月标普500行业排名垫底的四个位置中的三个，如下图所示。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d20bb030753e6466748750c5ff92028\" tg-width=\"2208\" tg-height=\"1087\"><blockquote></blockquote>The same story is told by focusing on the sectors that typically perform the worst in the final three months of bull markets. According to the Ned Davis data, these are Communication Services (assuming it to be the successor to the Telecommunications sector of old), Utilities and Energy. Once again we’re not seeing this pattern now. Energy currently is in first place for trailing three-month return and the Financials sector is in second place.<blockquote>通过关注牛市最后三个月通常表现最差的行业，也可以讲述同样的故事。根据Ned Davis的数据，这些是通信服务（假设它是旧电信部门的继承者）、公用事业和能源。我们现在又一次没有看到这种模式。能源行业目前在过去三个月的回报率中排名第一，金融行业排名第二。</blockquote>The rationale for this indicator is that certain sectors perform particularly poorly during economic downturns and therefore act as early warning signals of possible weakness. Energy is an obvious one, since energy usage typically plummets during a recession. Financials is another canary in the coal mine, since the inverted yield curve that often precedes a recession wreaks havoc with that industry’s profits.<blockquote>该指标的基本原理是，某些行业在经济低迷时期表现特别差，因此可以作为可能疲软的早期预警信号。能源是一个显而易见的问题，因为在经济衰退期间能源使用量通常会直线下降。金融业是煤矿中的另一只金丝雀，因为经济衰退之前经常出现的收益率曲线倒挂会对该行业的利润造成严重破坏。</blockquote>On the plus side, many consumer stocks exhibit relative strength during downturns. So when a possible recession is on the horizon they often suffer less than Energy and Financials.<blockquote>从好的方面来看，许多消费股在经济低迷时期表现出相对强势。因此，当可能的衰退迫在眉睫时，他们遭受的损失往往比能源和金融要小。</blockquote>You might question this indicator’s value, since it would be rare for the sector rankings to ever perfectly line up with the historical end-of-bull market averages — and therefore this indicator would never turn bearish. But even if those rankings don’t ever match up completely, there will be times when they are closer than others. One such occasion was in April 2015, when this indicator was close enough to the historical pattern to constitute an early warning of a market top. A bear market began in May of that year, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research.<blockquote>你可能会质疑这个指标的价值，因为行业排名很少能与历史上的牛市末均值完全一致——因此这个指标永远不会变得看跌。但是，即使这些排名没有完全匹配，也会有比其他人更接近的时候。其中一次是在2015年4月，当时该指标足够接近历史模式，构成了市场顶部的早期预警。根据Ned Davis Research维护的日历，熊市始于当年5月。</blockquote>No indicator is perfect. But especially in a week in which the market has fallen significantly, this indicator provides the bulls with at least some solace. It says you should start really worrying when the Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors are at or near the top of the trailing three-month rankings and Financials, Utilities, and Energy are at or near the bottom.<blockquote>没有一个指标是完美的。但尤其是在市场大幅下跌的一周，这一指标至少给多头带来了一些安慰。报告称，当必需消费品、非必需消费品和医疗保健行业在过去三个月的排名中处于或接近顶部，而金融、公用事业和能源行业处于或接近底部时，你应该开始真正担心。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Here’s proof that the bull market is alive and kicking<blockquote>观点：这证明牛市仍在继续</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Here’s proof that the bull market is alive and kicking<blockquote>观点：这证明牛市仍在继续</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketwatch2021-03-05 20:42\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThese 3 market sectors perform best before a market downturn and that’s not happening now.The stock market’s current downturn is unlikely to be the end of this incredible bull market. That’s the conclusion from a ranking of market sectors’ recent performance. Similar rankings from the final three months of past bull markets have exhibited distinct patterns, and there’s no evidence of such patterns currently.<blockquote>这三个市场部门在市场低迷之前表现最好，但现在情况并非如此。股市目前的低迷不太可能是这场令人难以置信的牛市的终结。这是对市场板块近期表现排名得出的结论。过去牛市最后三个月的类似排名表现出不同的模式，目前没有证据表明存在这种模式。</blockquote>No indicator is foolproof, but when I have relied on this indicator in the past it has acquitted itself well — most recently in July 2019, when — like now — the indicator was telling a bullish story. The S&amp;P 500 SPX, -1.34%, assuming reinvestment of dividends, is up more than 30% since then.<blockquote>没有一个指标是万无一失的，但当我过去依赖这个指标时，它表现得很好——最近一次是在2019年7月，当时——就像现在一样——该指标正在讲述一个看涨的故事。假设股息再投资，标普500 SPX指数为-1.34%，自那以来上涨了30%以上。</blockquote>I base this indicator on research conducted by Ned Davis Research. According to its calculations, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Consumer Staples are the three S&amp;P 500 sectors that have performed the best, on average, in the last three months of all bull markets since 1970. They have not been the best over the past three months; in fact, these sectors occupy three of the four places at the bottom of a trailing-three-month ranking of the S&amp;P 500 sectors, as you can see from the chart below.<blockquote>我根据Ned Davis Research进行的研究得出这个指标。根据其计算，非必需消费品、医疗保健和必需消费品是自1970年以来所有牛市最后三个月平均表现最好的三个标普500行业。在过去的三个月里，他们并不是最好的；事实上，这些行业占据了过去三个月标普500行业排名垫底的四个位置中的三个，如下图所示。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d20bb030753e6466748750c5ff92028\" tg-width=\"2208\" tg-height=\"1087\"><blockquote></blockquote>The same story is told by focusing on the sectors that typically perform the worst in the final three months of bull markets. According to the Ned Davis data, these are Communication Services (assuming it to be the successor to the Telecommunications sector of old), Utilities and Energy. Once again we’re not seeing this pattern now. Energy currently is in first place for trailing three-month return and the Financials sector is in second place.<blockquote>通过关注牛市最后三个月通常表现最差的行业，也可以讲述同样的故事。根据Ned Davis的数据，这些是通信服务（假设它是旧电信部门的继承者）、公用事业和能源。我们现在又一次没有看到这种模式。能源行业目前在过去三个月的回报率中排名第一，金融行业排名第二。</blockquote>The rationale for this indicator is that certain sectors perform particularly poorly during economic downturns and therefore act as early warning signals of possible weakness. Energy is an obvious one, since energy usage typically plummets during a recession. Financials is another canary in the coal mine, since the inverted yield curve that often precedes a recession wreaks havoc with that industry’s profits.<blockquote>该指标的基本原理是，某些行业在经济低迷时期表现特别差，因此可以作为可能疲软的早期预警信号。能源是一个显而易见的问题，因为在经济衰退期间能源使用量通常会直线下降。金融业是煤矿中的另一只金丝雀，因为经济衰退之前经常出现的收益率曲线倒挂会对该行业的利润造成严重破坏。</blockquote>On the plus side, many consumer stocks exhibit relative strength during downturns. So when a possible recession is on the horizon they often suffer less than Energy and Financials.<blockquote>从好的方面来看，许多消费股在经济低迷时期表现出相对强势。因此，当可能的衰退迫在眉睫时，他们遭受的损失往往比能源和金融要小。</blockquote>You might question this indicator’s value, since it would be rare for the sector rankings to ever perfectly line up with the historical end-of-bull market averages — and therefore this indicator would never turn bearish. But even if those rankings don’t ever match up completely, there will be times when they are closer than others. One such occasion was in April 2015, when this indicator was close enough to the historical pattern to constitute an early warning of a market top. A bear market began in May of that year, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research.<blockquote>你可能会质疑这个指标的价值，因为行业排名很少能与历史上的牛市末均值完全一致——因此这个指标永远不会变得看跌。但是，即使这些排名没有完全匹配，也会有比其他人更接近的时候。其中一次是在2015年4月，当时该指标足够接近历史模式，构成了市场顶部的早期预警。根据Ned Davis Research维护的日历，熊市始于当年5月。</blockquote>No indicator is perfect. But especially in a week in which the market has fallen significantly, this indicator provides the bulls with at least some solace. It says you should start really worrying when the Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors are at or near the top of the trailing three-month rankings and Financials, Utilities, and Energy are at or near the bottom.<blockquote>没有一个指标是完美的。但尤其是在市场大幅下跌的一周，这一指标至少给多头带来了一些安慰。报告称，当必需消费品、非必需消费品和医疗保健行业在过去三个月的排名中处于或接近顶部，而金融、公用事业和能源行业处于或接近底部时，你应该开始真正担心。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-proof-that-the-bull-market-is-alive-and-kicking-11614888724?siteid=yhoof2\">Marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-proof-that-the-bull-market-is-alive-and-kicking-11614888724?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1185942211","content_text":"These 3 market sectors perform best before a market downturn and that’s not happening now.The stock market’s current downturn is unlikely to be the end of this incredible bull market. That’s the conclusion from a ranking of market sectors’ recent performance. Similar rankings from the final three months of past bull markets have exhibited distinct patterns, and there’s no evidence of such patterns currently.No indicator is foolproof, but when I have relied on this indicator in the past it has acquitted itself well — most recently in July 2019, when — like now — the indicator was telling a bullish story. The S&P 500 SPX, -1.34%, assuming reinvestment of dividends, is up more than 30% since then.I base this indicator on research conducted by Ned Davis Research. According to its calculations, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Consumer Staples are the three S&P 500 sectors that have performed the best, on average, in the last three months of all bull markets since 1970. They have not been the best over the past three months; in fact, these sectors occupy three of the four places at the bottom of a trailing-three-month ranking of the S&P 500 sectors, as you can see from the chart below.The same story is told by focusing on the sectors that typically perform the worst in the final three months of bull markets. According to the Ned Davis data, these are Communication Services (assuming it to be the successor to the Telecommunications sector of old), Utilities and Energy. Once again we’re not seeing this pattern now. Energy currently is in first place for trailing three-month return and the Financials sector is in second place.The rationale for this indicator is that certain sectors perform particularly poorly during economic downturns and therefore act as early warning signals of possible weakness. Energy is an obvious one, since energy usage typically plummets during a recession. Financials is another canary in the coal mine, since the inverted yield curve that often precedes a recession wreaks havoc with that industry’s profits.On the plus side, many consumer stocks exhibit relative strength during downturns. So when a possible recession is on the horizon they often suffer less than Energy and Financials.You might question this indicator’s value, since it would be rare for the sector rankings to ever perfectly line up with the historical end-of-bull market averages — and therefore this indicator would never turn bearish. But even if those rankings don’t ever match up completely, there will be times when they are closer than others. One such occasion was in April 2015, when this indicator was close enough to the historical pattern to constitute an early warning of a market top. A bear market began in May of that year, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research.No indicator is perfect. But especially in a week in which the market has fallen significantly, this indicator provides the bulls with at least some solace. It says you should start really worrying when the Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors are at or near the top of the trailing three-month rankings and Financials, Utilities, and Energy are at or near the bottom.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":798,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/320620758"}