Eddiexu
03-19
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Where Will Tesla Stock Be in 3 Years?
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Is this temporary or a sign things have changed?","content":"<html><body><ul>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>Tesla shares are down 60% from all-time highs while the broad market is soaring. </div>\n</li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>The company is growing its production volumes but drastically cutting its selling prices. </div>\n</li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>The stock still looks expensive on a three-year time horizon. </div>\n</li>\n</ul><div><p>The stock market is soaring yet again. But this time, <strong>Tesla</strong> <span>(TSLA<span> 6.25%</span>)</span> is not leading the charge. In fact, the market is up in spite of the electric vehicle (EV) leader.</p><p>Tesla shares have fallen a whopping 34% year to date (YTD) as of this writing, while the <strong>Nasdaq-100</strong> continues to rise. The stock is now off 60% from all-time highs, while the broad market is close to all-time highs.</p><p>We are at another crossroads with Tesla stock. Bulls will argue this is a perfect buying opportunity as the company prepares for its next leg of growth. Bears will argue the company is finally heading toward a normal valuation that a manufacturing-based business deserves to trade at.</p><p>Which group is right? Where will Tesla stock be in three years?</p><p><img src=\"https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ca18997db5b45fc34b0195b96aadff06.png\"/></p><p>TSLA Total Return Level data by YCharts</p><div><div></div></div><h2>More volume, lower margins</h2><p>Tesla continued to grow its unit volumes in 2023. It delivered 1.8 million cars to customers around the globe, up from 1.3 million in 2022 and 936,000 in 2021. This is impressive growth at scale, making Tesla one of the premier manufacturers of not just EVs, but cars in general. For reference, the largest automaker in the world is <strong>Toyota</strong>, which produces just over 10 million cars every year.</p><p>But to get this unit growth, Tesla has had to lower its prices. Its main products have evolved to the cheaper Model 3 and Y products, which go for less than its older X and S models. On top of this, Tesla has chosen -- or perhaps been forced -- to lower prices on the Model 3 and Y to grow unit volumes. We can see this dynamic in the price of used Teslas, which have collapsed by half from a relative peak in early 2022. </p><p>Lower prices have translated to slowing revenue growth and lower margins. In 2023, Tesla's revenue grew by 19% to $97 billion, but slowed down to just 3% growth in the fourth quarter. Gross margins slipped from 25.6% in 2022 to 18.2% in 2023, with operating income falling 35% for the year. Margins are deteriorating as Tesla goes for a greater global scale.</p><div><app :collapse_on_load=\"false\" :instrument_id=\"224257\" :show_benchmark_compare=\"false\" amount_change=\"10.23\" average_volume=\"105,720,004\" company_name=\"Tesla\" current_price=\"173.80\" daily_high=\"174.72\" daily_low=\"165.90\" default_period=\"OneMonth\" dividend_yield=\"N/A\" exchange=\"NASDAQ\" fifty_two_week_high=\"299.29\" fifty_two_week_low=\"152.37\" gross_margin=\"18.25\" logo=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/art/companylogos/mark/TSLA.png\" market_cap=\"$554B\" pe_ratio=\"40.39\" percent_change=\"6.25\" symbol=\"TSLA\" volume=\"1,878,337\"></app></div><h2>Can offering a new vehicle save the day?</h2><p>In order to reach even more customers, Tesla will likely need to come out with an even more affordable vehicle. It can only sell so many vehicles in the $40,000-and-over price range, even if it keeps dropping new vehicle prices for the Model 3 and Y around the globe. There are just not that many people on this planet who can afford to purchase a premium-priced EV.</p><div><div></div></div><p>To expand its pool of potential customers, Tesla is planning to bring out a new, cheaper vehicle within the next few years. Rumor has it's planned for sometime in 2025, with CEO Elon Musk giving a rough timeline in a recent earnings call. But readers should know that Musk timelines are never fully fleshed out, and this does not guarantee a new product will arrive in 2025. I think you can bet on a new product arriving within the next few years, though. </p><p>Offering a new vehicle could certainly help Tesla boost volumes. But if it comes at a cheaper price point of around $25,000, revenue growth will lag unit volume growth as the average sales price of all Teslas sold continues to decline. Investors need to factor this in when doing any estimates for Tesla's revenue potential in the coming years.</p><p><img src=\"https://media.ycharts.com/charts/08484fcc57cc756b9747d493fa58c63f.png\"/></p><p>TSLA Operating Margin (TTM) data by YCharts</p><h2>The stock still isn't cheap</h2><p>Smart investors know that it doesn't matter what a stock is earning now, but what it will earn within a few years. When looking at where Tesla stock will be within a few years, we need to make an estimate on its financial trajectory. Let's be optimistic and say it can triple volumes compared to 2023 in three years due to the successful launch of its mainstream cheaper vehicle. With volumes tripled, revenue should be able to double due to lower average selling prices.</p><div><div></div></div><p>Lastly, we can assume that Tesla's profit margins will remain similar to 2023 at 9.2%. It will lose margin on cheaper selling prices, but should be able to make it up with economies of scale. Toyota has similar operating margins, for reference. Double Tesla's 2023 revenue to $194 billion and slap on a 9.2% profit margin, and Tesla could be earning $17.8 billion in three years.</p><p>Today, Tesla has a market cap of $512 billion. Divide that by $17.8 billion, and you get a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 29, which is a tad above the market average. From my seat, this indicates that Tesla stock may go nowhere over the next few years. It certainly isn't cheap, even after this recent drawdown, and could be a value trap for investors for a long while.</p><p>If you want to buy the dip, you need to be much more optimistic on the company's forward growth. Otherwise, Tesla stock will remain dead in the water.</p><div></div></div></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Tesla Stock Be in 3 Years?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Tesla Stock Be in 3 Years?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-19 20:16 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/19/where-will-tesla-stock-be-in-3-years/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla shares are down 60% from all-time highs while the broad market is soaring. \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe company is growing its production volumes but drastically cutting its selling prices. \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe stock ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/19/where-will-tesla-stock-be-in-3-years/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F769587%2Ffingers-on-chin-looking-up-thinking-considering-wondering.jpg&op=resize&w=165&h=104","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","BK4581":"高盛持仓","03160":"华夏日股对冲","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","TM":"丰田汽车","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4523":"印度概念","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","TTM":"塔塔汽车","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A(dist)","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/19/where-will-tesla-stock-be-in-3-years/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2420223777","content_text":"Tesla shares are down 60% from all-time highs while the broad market is soaring. \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe company is growing its production volumes but drastically cutting its selling prices. \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe stock still looks expensive on a three-year time horizon. \n\nThe stock market is soaring yet again. But this time, Tesla (TSLA 6.25%) is not leading the charge. In fact, the market is up in spite of the electric vehicle (EV) leader.Tesla shares have fallen a whopping 34% year to date (YTD) as of this writing, while the Nasdaq-100 continues to rise. The stock is now off 60% from all-time highs, while the broad market is close to all-time highs.We are at another crossroads with Tesla stock. Bulls will argue this is a perfect buying opportunity as the company prepares for its next leg of growth. Bears will argue the company is finally heading toward a normal valuation that a manufacturing-based business deserves to trade at.Which group is right? Where will Tesla stock be in three years?TSLA Total Return Level data by YChartsMore volume, lower marginsTesla continued to grow its unit volumes in 2023. It delivered 1.8 million cars to customers around the globe, up from 1.3 million in 2022 and 936,000 in 2021. This is impressive growth at scale, making Tesla one of the premier manufacturers of not just EVs, but cars in general. For reference, the largest automaker in the world is Toyota, which produces just over 10 million cars every year.But to get this unit growth, Tesla has had to lower its prices. Its main products have evolved to the cheaper Model 3 and Y products, which go for less than its older X and S models. On top of this, Tesla has chosen -- or perhaps been forced -- to lower prices on the Model 3 and Y to grow unit volumes. We can see this dynamic in the price of used Teslas, which have collapsed by half from a relative peak in early 2022. Lower prices have translated to slowing revenue growth and lower margins. In 2023, Tesla's revenue grew by 19% to $97 billion, but slowed down to just 3% growth in the fourth quarter. Gross margins slipped from 25.6% in 2022 to 18.2% in 2023, with operating income falling 35% for the year. Margins are deteriorating as Tesla goes for a greater global scale.Can offering a new vehicle save the day?In order to reach even more customers, Tesla will likely need to come out with an even more affordable vehicle. It can only sell so many vehicles in the $40,000-and-over price range, even if it keeps dropping new vehicle prices for the Model 3 and Y around the globe. There are just not that many people on this planet who can afford to purchase a premium-priced EV.To expand its pool of potential customers, Tesla is planning to bring out a new, cheaper vehicle within the next few years. Rumor has it's planned for sometime in 2025, with CEO Elon Musk giving a rough timeline in a recent earnings call. But readers should know that Musk timelines are never fully fleshed out, and this does not guarantee a new product will arrive in 2025. I think you can bet on a new product arriving within the next few years, though. Offering a new vehicle could certainly help Tesla boost volumes. But if it comes at a cheaper price point of around $25,000, revenue growth will lag unit volume growth as the average sales price of all Teslas sold continues to decline. Investors need to factor this in when doing any estimates for Tesla's revenue potential in the coming years.TSLA Operating Margin (TTM) data by YChartsThe stock still isn't cheapSmart investors know that it doesn't matter what a stock is earning now, but what it will earn within a few years. When looking at where Tesla stock will be within a few years, we need to make an estimate on its financial trajectory. Let's be optimistic and say it can triple volumes compared to 2023 in three years due to the successful launch of its mainstream cheaper vehicle. With volumes tripled, revenue should be able to double due to lower average selling prices.Lastly, we can assume that Tesla's profit margins will remain similar to 2023 at 9.2%. It will lose margin on cheaper selling prices, but should be able to make it up with economies of scale. Toyota has similar operating margins, for reference. Double Tesla's 2023 revenue to $194 billion and slap on a 9.2% profit margin, and Tesla could be earning $17.8 billion in three years.Today, Tesla has a market cap of $512 billion. Divide that by $17.8 billion, and you get a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 29, which is a tad above the market average. From my seat, this indicates that Tesla stock may go nowhere over the next few years. It certainly isn't cheap, even after this recent drawdown, and could be a value trap for investors for a long while.If you want to buy the dip, you need to be much more optimistic on the company's forward growth. Otherwise, Tesla stock will remain dead in the water.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":54,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/286062762397912"}
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