$特斯拉(TSLA)_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

零零落落风格怪

2018-08-27

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 其实私有化的消息机构基本是没人信的，复盘可以看到的是私有化消息放出之后涨幅在一周后基本恢复到中报利好后的水平，另一个可验证的点是所谓的MS介入TSLA私有化的新闻并未在市场上造成很大的反响。

所以预估今晚的内容主要是投机资金和散户的出清和过度反应，应当找寻过度反应后的回调机会入场挣一波日内交易的钱，目测在290左右开始吸筹

依旧看空TSL，但这次不会让TSL估值下降到低于Q2财报的水准之下，实际的下行爆点在未来强行扩充产能引发的汽车质量安全事件的大范围社会新闻，在恢复的稳定水平之后继续保持空头部位

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

crazydragon
2018-08-27
crazydragon
为什么私有化?不仅仅是因为空头，更是因为技术进步，产量大涨!马斯克感觉股价严重低估。也就是420还是低估!
取消私有化，是发现私有化可能导致控制权被燃油汽车厂商和石油巨头等旧能源势力控制。
综述，继续保持上市，对特斯拉发展更有利。6月model3产量5千，8月7-8千，增加40-60%(仅仅优化流程，几乎不增加投资)!年底上万绝对有保障。
大胆上，420低估，300属于错杀!
- 零零落落风格怪回复crazydragon:
  有新兴变革是肯定的，也会留给新人位置，但是更多的是过早进入的先烈。汽车和手机是有很多共通点，但是我觉得最好不要把感情投入到投资的标的当中
- 零零落落风格怪回复optive:
  我觉得类比不是一个好的推理手段，多做研究会更好一些
- optive回复零零落落风格怪:
  你知道nokia在2008年有多少技术储备吗？如果没有apple出现，他已经安排了今后10年的发展步骤
- crazydragon回复零零落落风格怪:
  就象当年的柯达，第一个发明数码相机。由于舍不得放弃相纸业务，照样错过机会。
  燃油汽车厂商也一样，舍不得放弃传统燃油车，终将被拖累。
  江山代有新人出。通用等厂商走下坡路是不可避免的。谁也狠不下心对自己动刀!
  特斯拉就没有这个包袱，会竭尽全力推广电动车。
- 零零落落风格怪回复MARIODAD:
  “储备”
MARIODAD
2018-08-27
MARIODAD
强行扩充产能已经不存在了，接下来半年不会再扩充，而且好评如潮
- 零零落落风格怪回复MARIODAD:
  所以就是等Q3结果呀
- MARIODAD回复零零落落风格怪:
  三季度可以盈利或者至少不亏，融资问题不大
- 零零落落风格怪回复MARIODAD:
  问题是这个产量不是稳定运营的点，还是有融资缺口
- MARIODAD回复零零落落风格怪:
  年底月产达到28000台，年产33万台，汽车工业最高效率的产能是30万台
- 零零落落风格怪:
  着重C端分析是很重要，不过现在问题不是消费者不买帐，而是产能达不到发挥规模效应的点，汽车毕竟是重资产行业
三门海
2018-08-27
三门海
中肯理智
- 零零落落风格怪回复三门海:
  这是一只锻炼人的好票啊，哈哈
- 三门海回复零零落落风格怪:
  现在砸下去不难，就不可预估在底部磨多久，我做期权的，时间跟位置都很重要
- 零零落落风格怪:
  多交流，之前平空头部位是想先在之后找一个高位在进入空头位置，多等一下相信私有化的游资进场，哪知道Musk怂的这么快，少了两个点左右

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