EquityQueen
2021-05-11
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Investors are ignoring a ticking-time-bomb stock market, says this money manager<blockquote>这位基金经理表示，投资者正在忽视一颗定时炸弹的股市</blockquote>
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The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国交易日的关键信息。</b>由于通胀不安情绪继续波及整个市场，周二股市（尤其是科技股）看起来充满风险。该行业一直首当其冲，人们担心通胀上升可能会促使美联储提前结束COVID-19大流行推动的宽松立场。</blockquote></p><p>After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear Wednesday’s consumer price datacould also deliver a nasty shock. Not helping are fresh Chinese data on Tuesday showingsurgingfactory-gate prices, though the consumer side was subdued. That is as investors continue to monitor fallout from a downed U.S. energy pipeline.</p><p><blockquote>在上周就业意外下滑之后，一些人担心周三的消费者价格数据也可能带来严重冲击。周二中国公布的最新数据显示出厂价格飙升，但消费方面表现低迷，这也于事无补。与此同时，投资者继续关注美国能源管道倒塌的影响。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation is the “worst-case scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors, warns our<b>call of the day</b>from Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.</p><p><blockquote>我们警告说，对于这个充满自满投资者的定时炸弹市场来说，通货膨胀是“最坏的情况”<b>今日看涨期权</b>来自《股票交易者日报》总裁兼首席执行官兼Equity Logic投资组合经理Thomas H.Kee Jr.。</blockquote></p><p>“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation. If inflation comes back, all of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be able to come back to save the day,” Kee told MarketWatch on Monday in an interview via LinkedIn. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought.”</p><p><blockquote>“可以说，刺激措施成为可能的唯一原因是因为没有通货膨胀。如果通货膨胀卷土重来，投资者获得的所有保障措施（刺激措施带来的免费资金）都将被解除，并且将无法恢复。”Kee周一在LinkedIn接受采访时告诉MarketWatch。他表示，最近的就业数据确实表明价格上涨将“比之前想象的更严重”。</blockquote></p><p>Investors are disregarding the fact that stocks are very expensive right now, said Kee, wholast Novemberpredicted a 25% drop for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.10%by year-end based on high price/earnings multiples.</p><p><blockquote>Kee表示，投资者忽视了目前股票非常昂贵的事实，他去年11月预测道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA将下跌25%，基于高市盈率，到年底将下跌-0.10%。</blockquote></p><p>Last year, he expected Dow earnings-per-share growth at 32% for 2021, but now sees it surging to 62%, before collapsing to 2.42% in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>去年，他预计2021年道指每股收益将增长32%，但现在预计将飙升至62%，然后在2022年跌至2.42%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/365ed838e230cb045d05fffe774347e1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The declines can be much worse than 25% and if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPXSPX,-1.04%is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x.”</p><p><blockquote>Kee表示：“跌幅可能比25%严重得多，如果FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）因通胀而受到束缚，投资者习惯的迅速反弹也不会发生。”“SPXSPX的公允价值倍数为-1.04%，不是30-[至]35倍。更像是15倍。”</blockquote></p><p>And the price/earnings to growth ratio, which adds in future earnings growth, for the Dow next year is “over 7, and normal fair value is 1.5. It is way overvalued based on that,” said Kee.</p><p><blockquote>明年道琼斯指数的市盈率（计入未来盈利增长）“超过7，正常公允价值为1.5。基于此，它被高估了，”Kee表示。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89bacf663a55cc9456589447184123a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said.</p><p><blockquote>让这一点变得现实的是投资者对自然风险认知的回归——目前这种认知严重缺乏。“政府给了他们免费的钱，刺激计划全面生效，投资者根本没有察觉到任何风险。那是最危险的事情！”基说。</blockquote></p><p>He advised investors continue rotating between the SPRD S&P 500 ETF trustSPY,-0.99%and cash. Kee suggested last year staying that course until signs of reversals or that investors were getting worried about central bank stimulus stopping. No signs so far, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他建议投资者继续在SPRD标普500 ETF trustSPY(-0.99%)和现金之间轮换。Kee去年建议保持这一趋势，直到出现逆转迹象或投资者开始担心央行刺激措施停止。他说，到目前为止还没有迹象。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors are ignoring a ticking-time-bomb stock market, says this money manager<blockquote>这位基金经理表示，投资者正在忽视一颗定时炸弹的股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors are ignoring a ticking-time-bomb stock market, says this money manager<blockquote>这位基金经理表示，投资者正在忽视一颗定时炸弹的股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-11 19:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Critical information for the U.S. trading day.</b>Tuesday is looking dicey for stocks, notably the technology space, as inflation jitters continue to ripple across markets. The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国交易日的关键信息。</b>由于通胀不安情绪继续波及整个市场，周二股市（尤其是科技股）看起来充满风险。该行业一直首当其冲，人们担心通胀上升可能会促使美联储提前结束COVID-19大流行推动的宽松立场。</blockquote></p><p>After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear Wednesday’s consumer price datacould also deliver a nasty shock. Not helping are fresh Chinese data on Tuesday showingsurgingfactory-gate prices, though the consumer side was subdued. That is as investors continue to monitor fallout from a downed U.S. energy pipeline.</p><p><blockquote>在上周就业意外下滑之后，一些人担心周三的消费者价格数据也可能带来严重冲击。周二中国公布的最新数据显示出厂价格飙升，但消费方面表现低迷，这也于事无补。与此同时，投资者继续关注美国能源管道倒塌的影响。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation is the “worst-case scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors, warns our<b>call of the day</b>from Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.</p><p><blockquote>我们警告说，对于这个充满自满投资者的定时炸弹市场来说，通货膨胀是“最坏的情况”<b>今日看涨期权</b>来自《股票交易者日报》总裁兼首席执行官兼Equity Logic投资组合经理Thomas H.Kee Jr.。</blockquote></p><p>“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation. If inflation comes back, all of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be able to come back to save the day,” Kee told MarketWatch on Monday in an interview via LinkedIn. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought.”</p><p><blockquote>“可以说，刺激措施成为可能的唯一原因是因为没有通货膨胀。如果通货膨胀卷土重来，投资者获得的所有保障措施（刺激措施带来的免费资金）都将被解除，并且将无法恢复。”Kee周一在LinkedIn接受采访时告诉MarketWatch。他表示，最近的就业数据确实表明价格上涨将“比之前想象的更严重”。</blockquote></p><p>Investors are disregarding the fact that stocks are very expensive right now, said Kee, wholast Novemberpredicted a 25% drop for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.10%by year-end based on high price/earnings multiples.</p><p><blockquote>Kee表示，投资者忽视了目前股票非常昂贵的事实，他去年11月预测道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA将下跌25%，基于高市盈率，到年底将下跌-0.10%。</blockquote></p><p>Last year, he expected Dow earnings-per-share growth at 32% for 2021, but now sees it surging to 62%, before collapsing to 2.42% in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>去年，他预计2021年道指每股收益将增长32%，但现在预计将飙升至62%，然后在2022年跌至2.42%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/365ed838e230cb045d05fffe774347e1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The declines can be much worse than 25% and if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPXSPX,-1.04%is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x.”</p><p><blockquote>Kee表示：“跌幅可能比25%严重得多，如果FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）因通胀而受到束缚，投资者习惯的迅速反弹也不会发生。”“SPXSPX的公允价值倍数为-1.04%，不是30-[至]35倍。更像是15倍。”</blockquote></p><p>And the price/earnings to growth ratio, which adds in future earnings growth, for the Dow next year is “over 7, and normal fair value is 1.5. It is way overvalued based on that,” said Kee.</p><p><blockquote>明年道琼斯指数的市盈率（计入未来盈利增长）“超过7，正常公允价值为1.5。基于此，它被高估了，”Kee表示。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89bacf663a55cc9456589447184123a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said.</p><p><blockquote>让这一点变得现实的是投资者对自然风险认知的回归——目前这种认知严重缺乏。“政府给了他们免费的钱，刺激计划全面生效，投资者根本没有察觉到任何风险。那是最危险的事情！”基说。</blockquote></p><p>He advised investors continue rotating between the SPRD S&P 500 ETF trustSPY,-0.99%and cash. Kee suggested last year staying that course until signs of reversals or that investors were getting worried about central bank stimulus stopping. No signs so far, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他建议投资者继续在SPRD标普500 ETF trustSPY(-0.99%)和现金之间轮换。Kee去年建议保持这一趋势，直到出现逆转迹象或投资者开始担心央行刺激措施停止。他说，到目前为止还没有迹象。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-ignoring-a-ticking-time-bomb-stock-market-says-this-money-manager-11620731899?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-ignoring-a-ticking-time-bomb-stock-market-says-this-money-manager-11620731899?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146338556","content_text":"Critical information for the U.S. trading day.Tuesday is looking dicey for stocks, notably the technology space, as inflation jitters continue to ripple across markets. The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance.After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear Wednesday’s consumer price datacould also deliver a nasty shock. Not helping are fresh Chinese data on Tuesday showingsurgingfactory-gate prices, though the consumer side was subdued. That is as investors continue to monitor fallout from a downed U.S. energy pipeline.Inflation is the “worst-case scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors, warns ourcall of the dayfrom Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation. If inflation comes back, all of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be able to come back to save the day,” Kee told MarketWatch on Monday in an interview via LinkedIn. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought.”Investors are disregarding the fact that stocks are very expensive right now, said Kee, wholast Novemberpredicted a 25% drop for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.10%by year-end based on high price/earnings multiples.Last year, he expected Dow earnings-per-share growth at 32% for 2021, but now sees it surging to 62%, before collapsing to 2.42% in 2022.“The declines can be much worse than 25% and if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPXSPX,-1.04%is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x.”And the price/earnings to growth ratio, which adds in future earnings growth, for the Dow next year is “over 7, and normal fair value is 1.5. It is way overvalued based on that,” said Kee.What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said.He advised investors continue rotating between the SPRD S&P 500 ETF trustSPY,-0.99%and cash. Kee suggested last year staying that course until signs of reversals or that investors were getting worried about central bank stimulus stopping. No signs so far, he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1483,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/199761563"}
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