LEEQX
2021-05-14
[Serious]
The Last Two Times This Hit, Stocks Dropped 20% and 50%, Respectively<blockquote>上两次股市分别下跌了20%和50%</blockquote>
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And if bond yields rise as a result of inflation, bonds become more attractive as an investment, taking away from the appeal of Tech.</p><p><blockquote>原因是大部分科技投资都是基于增长率。如果债券收益率因通货膨胀而上升，债券作为一种投资就会变得更具吸引力，从而削弱科技的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> As I noted yesterday. as inflation entered the financial system in 2020 and began to accelerate in 2021, Tech stocks have struggled. You can see this in the chart below (red rectangle).</p><p><blockquote>正如我昨天提到的。随着通胀在2020年进入金融体系并在2021年开始加速，科技股陷入困境。您可以在下面的图表中看到这一点（红色矩形）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6366a605a86374ef9af9de07ae828fd4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So, we know that Tech is going to struggle going forward as inflation heats up. But what about the broader market like the S&P 500? Will it collapse too?</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们知道，随着通胀升温，科技将难以前进。但是像标普500这样的大盘呢？它也会崩溃吗？</blockquote></p><p> To figure that out, let’s take a look at the last two inflationary scares in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>为了弄清楚这一点，让我们来看看美国最近两次通胀恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> The most recent scare occurred in 2010-2011. At that time, the Fed was pretty quick on the uptake and decided to allow its QE 2 program (the cause of the inflationary spike) to end.</p><p><blockquote>最近一次恐慌发生在2010-2011年。当时，美联储很快就采取了行动，并决定结束其QE 2计划（通胀飙升的原因）。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed then waited several months before introducing any new monetary programs. And when it did introduce one, it didn’t involve money printing (instead the Fed used the proceeds from Treasury sales to buy long-date Treasuries through a process called Operation Twist). This was a kind of stealth tightening.</p><p><blockquote>美联储随后等待了几个月才推出任何新的货币计划。当它真的推出时，它并不涉及印钞（相反，美联储通过一个名为“扭曲操作”的过程使用国债销售收益购买长期国债）。这是一种隐形收紧。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks didn’t like this, collapsing nearly 20%.</p><p><blockquote>股市不喜欢这样，暴跌近20%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fdf95bc30276d330c4bd7a5f62b10d2\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"376\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Bear in mind, that was a relatively minor inflationary scare. During the last legitimate inflationary storm in the 1970s-1980s.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，这是一次相对较小的通胀恐慌。在20世纪70-80年代最后一次合理的通胀风暴期间。</blockquote></p><p> During that mess, the Fed was forced to be MUCH more aggressive with its tightening, embarking on two aggressive tightening schedules. It’s worth noting that this triggered two SEVERE recessions (shaded areas).</p><p><blockquote>在这场混乱中，美联储被迫更加积极地收紧货币政策，启动了两项激进的紧缩计划。值得注意的是，这引发了两次严重的衰退（阴影区域）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f6ed1ada17beb2066d0017b576e64cc\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This IMPLODED the stock market, resulting in a roughly 50% decline over the course of 18 months.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38c35b81a872044b03ce49014d5e46\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"376\"></p><p><blockquote>这导致股市崩溃，导致18个月内下跌约50%。</blockquote></p><p> So, what will it be this time? Will the Fed engage in a stealth taper as was the case in 2011… or will it tighten monetary policy aggressively as it did in the 1970s and 1980s?</p><p><blockquote>那么，这次会是什么呢？美联储会像2011年那样进行秘密缩减……还是会像上世纪七八十年代那样大幅收紧货币政策？</blockquote></p><p> We’ll address that in our next article.</p><p><blockquote>我们将在下一篇文章中讨论这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> in the meantime, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation <b>pay you</b> as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我们刚刚发布了一份特别投资报告，内容涉及可以用来制造通货膨胀的五种秘密投资<b>付给你</b>随着它在未来几个月席卷金融体系。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Last Two Times This Hit, Stocks Dropped 20% and 50%, Respectively<blockquote>上两次股市分别下跌了20%和50%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Last Two Times This Hit, Stocks Dropped 20% and 50%, Respectively<blockquote>上两次股市分别下跌了20%和50%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 23:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In our last article, I outlined how the rise in inflation has slammed Tech stocks lower.</p><p><blockquote>在我们的上一篇文章中，我概述了通胀上升如何导致科技股下跌。</blockquote></p><p> By way of a quick review, Tech, as represented by the NASDAQ is highly sensitive to inflation on an inverse relationship: when inflation rises, Tech stocks collapse and when inflation falls, Tech stocks erupt higher.</p><p><blockquote>快速回顾一下，以纳斯达克为代表的科技股对通胀高度敏感，呈反比关系：当通胀上升时，科技股暴跌，当通胀下降时，科技股飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The reason for this is that much of Tech investing is based on growth rates. And if bond yields rise as a result of inflation, bonds become more attractive as an investment, taking away from the appeal of Tech.</p><p><blockquote>原因是大部分科技投资都是基于增长率。如果债券收益率因通货膨胀而上升，债券作为一种投资就会变得更具吸引力，从而削弱科技的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> As I noted yesterday. as inflation entered the financial system in 2020 and began to accelerate in 2021, Tech stocks have struggled. You can see this in the chart below (red rectangle).</p><p><blockquote>正如我昨天提到的。随着通胀在2020年进入金融体系并在2021年开始加速，科技股陷入困境。您可以在下面的图表中看到这一点（红色矩形）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6366a605a86374ef9af9de07ae828fd4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So, we know that Tech is going to struggle going forward as inflation heats up. But what about the broader market like the S&P 500? Will it collapse too?</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们知道，随着通胀升温，科技将难以前进。但是像标普500这样的大盘呢？它也会崩溃吗？</blockquote></p><p> To figure that out, let’s take a look at the last two inflationary scares in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>为了弄清楚这一点，让我们来看看美国最近两次通胀恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> The most recent scare occurred in 2010-2011. At that time, the Fed was pretty quick on the uptake and decided to allow its QE 2 program (the cause of the inflationary spike) to end.</p><p><blockquote>最近一次恐慌发生在2010-2011年。当时，美联储很快就采取了行动，并决定结束其QE 2计划（通胀飙升的原因）。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed then waited several months before introducing any new monetary programs. And when it did introduce one, it didn’t involve money printing (instead the Fed used the proceeds from Treasury sales to buy long-date Treasuries through a process called Operation Twist). This was a kind of stealth tightening.</p><p><blockquote>美联储随后等待了几个月才推出任何新的货币计划。当它真的推出时，它并不涉及印钞（相反，美联储通过一个名为“扭曲操作”的过程使用国债销售收益购买长期国债）。这是一种隐形收紧。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks didn’t like this, collapsing nearly 20%.</p><p><blockquote>股市不喜欢这样，暴跌近20%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fdf95bc30276d330c4bd7a5f62b10d2\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"376\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Bear in mind, that was a relatively minor inflationary scare. During the last legitimate inflationary storm in the 1970s-1980s.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，这是一次相对较小的通胀恐慌。在20世纪70-80年代最后一次合理的通胀风暴期间。</blockquote></p><p> During that mess, the Fed was forced to be MUCH more aggressive with its tightening, embarking on two aggressive tightening schedules. It’s worth noting that this triggered two SEVERE recessions (shaded areas).</p><p><blockquote>在这场混乱中，美联储被迫更加积极地收紧货币政策，启动了两项激进的紧缩计划。值得注意的是，这引发了两次严重的衰退（阴影区域）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f6ed1ada17beb2066d0017b576e64cc\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This IMPLODED the stock market, resulting in a roughly 50% decline over the course of 18 months.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38c35b81a872044b03ce49014d5e46\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"376\"></p><p><blockquote>这导致股市崩溃，导致18个月内下跌约50%。</blockquote></p><p> So, what will it be this time? Will the Fed engage in a stealth taper as was the case in 2011… or will it tighten monetary policy aggressively as it did in the 1970s and 1980s?</p><p><blockquote>那么，这次会是什么呢？美联储会像2011年那样进行秘密缩减……还是会像上世纪七八十年代那样大幅收紧货币政策？</blockquote></p><p> We’ll address that in our next article.</p><p><blockquote>我们将在下一篇文章中讨论这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> in the meantime, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation <b>pay you</b> as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我们刚刚发布了一份特别投资报告，内容涉及可以用来制造通货膨胀的五种秘密投资<b>付给你</b>随着它在未来几个月席卷金融体系。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-05-13/last-two-times-hit-stocks-dropped-20-and-50-respectively\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-05-13/last-two-times-hit-stocks-dropped-20-and-50-respectively","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196862271","content_text":"In our last article, I outlined how the rise in inflation has slammed Tech stocks lower.\nBy way of a quick review, Tech, as represented by the NASDAQ is highly sensitive to inflation on an inverse relationship: when inflation rises, Tech stocks collapse and when inflation falls, Tech stocks erupt higher.\nThe reason for this is that much of Tech investing is based on growth rates. And if bond yields rise as a result of inflation, bonds become more attractive as an investment, taking away from the appeal of Tech.\nAs I noted yesterday. as inflation entered the financial system in 2020 and began to accelerate in 2021, Tech stocks have struggled. You can see this in the chart below (red rectangle).\nSo, we know that Tech is going to struggle going forward as inflation heats up. But what about the broader market like the S&P 500? Will it collapse too?\nTo figure that out, let’s take a look at the last two inflationary scares in the U.S.\nThe most recent scare occurred in 2010-2011. At that time, the Fed was pretty quick on the uptake and decided to allow its QE 2 program (the cause of the inflationary spike) to end.\nThe Fed then waited several months before introducing any new monetary programs. And when it did introduce one, it didn’t involve money printing (instead the Fed used the proceeds from Treasury sales to buy long-date Treasuries through a process called Operation Twist). This was a kind of stealth tightening.\nStocks didn’t like this, collapsing nearly 20%.\n\nBear in mind, that was a relatively minor inflationary scare. During the last legitimate inflationary storm in the 1970s-1980s.\nDuring that mess, the Fed was forced to be MUCH more aggressive with its tightening, embarking on two aggressive tightening schedules. It’s worth noting that this triggered two SEVERE recessions (shaded areas).\n\nThis IMPLODED the stock market, resulting in a roughly 50% decline over the course of 18 months.\nSo, what will it be this time? Will the Fed engage in a stealth taper as was the case in 2011… or will it tighten monetary policy aggressively as it did in the 1970s and 1980s?\nWe’ll address that in our next article.\nin the meantime, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":545,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/198612894"}
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