So scary…20% already too much_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-05-14

So scary…20% already too much

The Last Two Times This Hit, Stocks Dropped 20% and 50%, Respectively<blockquote>最近两次遭受这种打击，股票分别下跌了 20% 和 50%</blockquote>

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And if bond yields rise as a result of inflation, bonds become more attractive as an investment, taking away from the appeal of Tech.<blockquote>原因是大部分科技投资都是基于增长率的。如果债券收益率因通货膨胀而上升，债券作为投资就会变得更具吸引力，从而削弱科技的吸引力。</blockquote> As I noted yesterday. as inflation entered the financial system in 2020 and began to accelerate in 2021, Tech stocks have struggled. You can see this in the chart below (red rectangle).<blockquote>正如我昨天提到的。随着通货膨胀在2020年进入金融体系并在2021年开始加速，科技股一直在苦苦挣扎。您可以在下图（红色矩形）中看到这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6366a605a86374ef9af9de07ae828fd4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So, we know that Tech is going to struggle going forward as inflation heats up. But what about the broader market like the S&amp;P 500? Will it collapse too?<blockquote>因此，我们知道，随着通胀升温，科技将难以前进。但是像标普500这样更广泛的市场呢？它也会崩溃吗？</blockquote> To figure that out, let’s take a look at the last two inflationary scares in the U.S.<blockquote>为了弄清楚这一点，让我们来看看美国最近两次通胀恐慌。</blockquote> The most recent scare occurred in 2010-2011. At that time, the Fed was pretty quick on the uptake and decided to allow its QE 2 program (the cause of the inflationary spike) to end.<blockquote>最近一次恐慌发生在2010-2011年。当时，美联储很快就接受了，并决定允许其QE 2计划（通胀飙升的原因）结束。</blockquote> The Fed then waited several months before introducing any new monetary programs. And when it did introduce one, it didn’t involve money printing (instead the Fed used the proceeds from Treasury sales to buy long-date Treasuries through a process called Operation Twist). This was a kind of stealth tightening.<blockquote>随后，美联储等了几个月才推出任何新的货币计划。而当美联储推出这一政策时，并不涉及印钞（相反，美联储利用国债销售所得通过一个名为“扭曲行动”的过程购买长期国债）。这是一种秘密收紧。</blockquote> Stocks didn’t like this, collapsing nearly 20%.<blockquote>股市不喜欢这样，暴跌近 20%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fdf95bc30276d330c4bd7a5f62b10d2\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"376\"><blockquote></blockquote> Bear in mind, that was a relatively minor inflationary scare. During the last legitimate inflationary storm in the 1970s-1980s.<blockquote>请记住，这是一次相对轻微的通胀恐慌。在20世纪70年代至80年代最后一次合法的通货膨胀风暴期间。</blockquote> During that mess, the Fed was forced to be MUCH more aggressive with its tightening, embarking on two aggressive tightening schedules. It’s worth noting that this triggered two SEVERE recessions (shaded areas).<blockquote>在那场混乱中，美联储被迫采取更加激进的紧缩政策，开始了两项激进的紧缩计划。值得注意的是，这引发了两次严重的衰退（阴影区域）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f6ed1ada17beb2066d0017b576e64cc\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\"><blockquote></blockquote> This IMPLODED the stock market, resulting in a roughly 50% decline over the course of 18 months.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38c35b81a872044b03ce49014d5e46\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"376\"><blockquote>这导致股市内爆，导致 18 个月内下跌约 50%。</blockquote> So, what will it be this time? Will the Fed engage in a stealth taper as was the case in 2011… or will it tighten monetary policy aggressively as it did in the 1970s and 1980s?<blockquote>那么，这次会是什么呢？美联储会像2011年那样秘密缩减货币政策吗……还是会像20世纪70年代和80年代那样积极收紧货币政策？</blockquote> We’ll address that in our next article.<blockquote>我们将在下一篇文章中讨论这个问题。</blockquote> in the meantime, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation&nbsp;pay you&nbsp;as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.<blockquote>与此同时，我们刚刚发布了一份特别投资报告，内容涉及您可以用来制造通货膨胀的五种秘密投资付给你随着它在未来几个月席卷金融体系。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Last Two Times This Hit, Stocks Dropped 20% and 50%, Respectively<blockquote>最近两次遭受这种打击，股票分别下跌了 20% 和 50%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Last Two Times This Hit, Stocks Dropped 20% and 50%, Respectively<blockquote>最近两次遭受这种打击，股票分别下跌了 20% 和 50%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-05-13 23:21\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIn our last article, I outlined how the rise in inflation has slammed Tech stocks lower.<blockquote>在我们的上一篇文章中，我概述了通胀上升如何导致科技股下跌。</blockquote> By way of a quick review, Tech, as represented by the NASDAQ is highly sensitive to inflation on an inverse relationship: when inflation rises, Tech stocks collapse and when inflation falls, Tech stocks erupt higher.<blockquote>快速回顾一下，以纳斯达克为代表的科技股对通货膨胀高度敏感，呈反比关系：当通货膨胀上升时，科技股崩溃，当通货膨胀下降时，科技股爆发走高。</blockquote> The reason for this is that much of Tech investing is based on growth rates. And if bond yields rise as a result of inflation, bonds become more attractive as an investment, taking away from the appeal of Tech.<blockquote>原因是大部分科技投资都是基于增长率的。如果债券收益率因通货膨胀而上升，债券作为投资就会变得更具吸引力，从而削弱科技的吸引力。</blockquote> As I noted yesterday. as inflation entered the financial system in 2020 and began to accelerate in 2021, Tech stocks have struggled. You can see this in the chart below (red rectangle).<blockquote>正如我昨天提到的。随着通货膨胀在2020年进入金融体系并在2021年开始加速，科技股一直在苦苦挣扎。您可以在下图（红色矩形）中看到这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6366a605a86374ef9af9de07ae828fd4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So, we know that Tech is going to struggle going forward as inflation heats up. But what about the broader market like the S&amp;P 500? Will it collapse too?<blockquote>因此，我们知道，随着通胀升温，科技将难以前进。但是像标普500这样更广泛的市场呢？它也会崩溃吗？</blockquote> To figure that out, let’s take a look at the last two inflationary scares in the U.S.<blockquote>为了弄清楚这一点，让我们来看看美国最近两次通胀恐慌。</blockquote> The most recent scare occurred in 2010-2011. At that time, the Fed was pretty quick on the uptake and decided to allow its QE 2 program (the cause of the inflationary spike) to end.<blockquote>最近一次恐慌发生在2010-2011年。当时，美联储很快就接受了，并决定允许其QE 2计划（通胀飙升的原因）结束。</blockquote> The Fed then waited several months before introducing any new monetary programs. And when it did introduce one, it didn’t involve money printing (instead the Fed used the proceeds from Treasury sales to buy long-date Treasuries through a process called Operation Twist). This was a kind of stealth tightening.<blockquote>随后，美联储等了几个月才推出任何新的货币计划。而当美联储推出这一政策时，并不涉及印钞（相反，美联储利用国债销售所得通过一个名为“扭曲行动”的过程购买长期国债）。这是一种秘密收紧。</blockquote> Stocks didn’t like this, collapsing nearly 20%.<blockquote>股市不喜欢这样，暴跌近 20%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fdf95bc30276d330c4bd7a5f62b10d2\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"376\"><blockquote></blockquote> Bear in mind, that was a relatively minor inflationary scare. During the last legitimate inflationary storm in the 1970s-1980s.<blockquote>请记住，这是一次相对轻微的通胀恐慌。在20世纪70年代至80年代最后一次合法的通货膨胀风暴期间。</blockquote> During that mess, the Fed was forced to be MUCH more aggressive with its tightening, embarking on two aggressive tightening schedules. It’s worth noting that this triggered two SEVERE recessions (shaded areas).<blockquote>在那场混乱中，美联储被迫采取更加激进的紧缩政策，开始了两项激进的紧缩计划。值得注意的是，这引发了两次严重的衰退（阴影区域）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f6ed1ada17beb2066d0017b576e64cc\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\"><blockquote></blockquote> This IMPLODED the stock market, resulting in a roughly 50% decline over the course of 18 months.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38c35b81a872044b03ce49014d5e46\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"376\"><blockquote>这导致股市内爆，导致 18 个月内下跌约 50%。</blockquote> So, what will it be this time? Will the Fed engage in a stealth taper as was the case in 2011… or will it tighten monetary policy aggressively as it did in the 1970s and 1980s?<blockquote>那么，这次会是什么呢？美联储会像2011年那样秘密缩减货币政策吗……还是会像20世纪70年代和80年代那样积极收紧货币政策？</blockquote> We’ll address that in our next article.<blockquote>我们将在下一篇文章中讨论这个问题。</blockquote> in the meantime, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation&nbsp;pay you&nbsp;as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.<blockquote>与此同时，我们刚刚发布了一份特别投资报告，内容涉及您可以用来制造通货膨胀的五种秘密投资付给你随着它在未来几个月席卷金融体系。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-05-13/last-two-times-hit-stocks-dropped-20-and-50-respectively\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-05-13/last-two-times-hit-stocks-dropped-20-and-50-respectively","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196862271","content_text":"In our last article, I outlined how the rise in inflation has slammed Tech stocks lower.\nBy way of a quick review, Tech, as represented by the NASDAQ is highly sensitive to inflation on an inverse relationship: when inflation rises, Tech stocks collapse and when inflation falls, Tech stocks erupt higher.\nThe reason for this is that much of Tech investing is based on growth rates. And if bond yields rise as a result of inflation, bonds become more attractive as an investment, taking away from the appeal of Tech.\nAs I noted yesterday. as inflation entered the financial system in 2020 and began to accelerate in 2021, Tech stocks have struggled. You can see this in the chart below (red rectangle).\nSo, we know that Tech is going to struggle going forward as inflation heats up. But what about the broader market like the S&P 500? Will it collapse too?\nTo figure that out, let’s take a look at the last two inflationary scares in the U.S.\nThe most recent scare occurred in 2010-2011. At that time, the Fed was pretty quick on the uptake and decided to allow its QE 2 program (the cause of the inflationary spike) to end.\nThe Fed then waited several months before introducing any new monetary programs. And when it did introduce one, it didn’t involve money printing (instead the Fed used the proceeds from Treasury sales to buy long-date Treasuries through a process called Operation Twist). This was a kind of stealth tightening.\nStocks didn’t like this, collapsing nearly 20%.\n\nBear in mind, that was a relatively minor inflationary scare. During the last legitimate inflationary storm in the 1970s-1980s.\nDuring that mess, the Fed was forced to be MUCH more aggressive with its tightening, embarking on two aggressive tightening schedules. It’s worth noting that this triggered two SEVERE recessions (shaded areas).\n\nThis IMPLODED the stock market, resulting in a roughly 50% decline over the course of 18 months.\nSo, what will it be this time? Will the Fed engage in a stealth taper as was the case in 2011… or will it tighten monetary policy aggressively as it did in the 1970s and 1980s?\nWe’ll address that in our next article.\nin the meantime, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":598,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/198121273"}