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2021-05-14

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"No Panic": Markets Surge As "Transitory Inflation" Narrative Reasserts Itself<blockquote>“不要恐慌”：随着“暂时性通胀”叙事的重申，市场飙升</blockquote>

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The Fed is focused on the labor market, believing that any transitory inflation can be weathered by Consumers.\" Some more from JPM:<blockquote>...《隔夜报》写道，尽管 CPI 和现在的 PPI 都炙手可热，但 “从美联储的角度来看，一切都没有改变。美联储关注的是劳动力市场，认为任何暂时性的通胀都能被消费者经受住”。摩根大通的更多信息：</blockquote> What is the Fed looking at (BLS)?US Market Intelligence thinks it is a combination of the unemployed (9.8mm; 6.1%), long-term unemployed (4.2mm, +3.1mm from Feb 2020), labor force participation rate (61.7%; -1.6% from Feb 2020), employment-population ratio (57.9%; -3.2% from Feb 2020), number of people not in labor force who want a job (6.6mm; +1.6mm from Feb 2020), and a new category “unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic” (9.4mm, down 2mm MoM, but this did not exist prior to Feb 2020; and, not all of these people are counted in unemployment measure). Finally, you have people “prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic” numbering 2.8mm which is -900k MoM; none of these people are counted in the unemployment measure. Combine these numbers and you see a US labor market that is more fragile than headline numbers suggest. This may be why we continue to see Fed speakers reiterate a data-driven approach.Conversely, this may also be why markets are now seemingly more sensitive to inflation. Commodity-based and COVIDinduced supply chain inflation may overlap with wage inflation, creating a situation where the Fed may have to act more strongly than what investors have witnessed previously. For those asking \"how to monetize this line of thinking\" JPM recommends commodities and commodity-linked Equities, specifically Energy: \"consider both integrates like XOM and CVX, or XLE for general exposure. Further, refiners are a strong long play through 2021Q3, potentially longer, and would view VLO and MPC as the favored ways to play. In addition to that, inflation expectations are likely to pull yields higher, which benefit Banks.\"<blockquote>美联储在看什么（BLS）？美国市场情报机构认为，这是失业人数（9.8 毫米；6.1%）、长期失业人数（4.2 毫米，比 2020 年 2 月增加 3.1 毫米）、劳动力参与率（61.7%；比 2020 年 2 月减少 1.6%）、就业人口比（57.9%；比 2020 年 2 月减少 3.2%）、非劳动力队伍中想要工作的人数（6.6 毫米；比 2020 年 2 月增加 1.6 毫米）以及一个新的类别“因疫情导致雇主关闭或失业而无法工作”（9.4 毫米，下降 2 毫米，但这在 2020 年 2 月之前并不存在；而且，并非所有这些人都计入失业指标）的综合结果。最后，还有“因疫情而无法找工作”的人数为 2.8 毫米，即 -90 万妈妈；这些人都不计入失业率。结合这些数字，你会发现美国劳动力市场比标题数字显示的更加脆弱。这可能是我们继续看到美联储发言人重申数据驱动方法的原因。相反，这可能也是市场现在似乎对通胀更加敏感的原因。基于大宗商品和新冠病毒引发的供应链通胀可能会与工资通胀重叠，从而造成美联储可能不得不采取比投资者之前目睹的更强有力的行动的局面。对于那些询问“如何将这种思路货币化”的人，摩根大通推荐大宗商品和与大宗商品相关的股票，特别是能源：“考虑 XOM 和 CVX 等综合股票，或者考虑 XLE 进行一般敞口。此外，炼油厂是 2021 年第三季度的强劲多头投资，可能会更长，并将 VLO 和 MPC 视为首选的投资方式。除此之外，通胀预期可能会推高收益率，这有利于银行。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"No Panic\": Markets Surge As \"Transitory Inflation\" Narrative Reasserts Itself<blockquote>“不要恐慌”：随着“暂时性通胀”叙事的重申，市场飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"No Panic\": Markets Surge As \"Transitory Inflation\" Narrative Reasserts Itself<blockquote>“不要恐慌”：随着“暂时性通胀”叙事的重申，市场飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-05-13 22:52\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIt seems that the \"non-transitory\" inflation panic that gripped markets yesterday, resulting in the biggest one-day drop in the S&amp;P since February, is gradually transitioning to \"transitory\" again, and even though today's y/y PPI print of 6.2%,the highest on record, reaffirmed the soaring prices narrative...<blockquote>昨天席卷市场的“非暂时性”通胀恐慌，导致标准普尔指数创下2月份以来最大单日跌幅，似乎正在逐渐再次过渡到“暂时性”，尽管今天的同比PPI数据为6.2%，创历史新高，再次证实了价格飙升的说法……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17fb4e9fa1646eb72495711c65580bce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\"><blockquote></blockquote> ...today the \"transitory\" inflation mood is reasserting itself, with Emini futures surging almost 100 points from the overnight lows...<blockquote>...今天，“短暂”的通胀情绪正在重新出现，Emini期货从隔夜低点飙升近100点……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6070f28b3d5457de2824102b29241962\" tg-width=\"1205\" tg-height=\"644\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and the battered FAAMG sector is solidly in the green as closely watched 5Y breakevens slide and nominals are down to session lows:<blockquote>...随着备受关注的 5 年盈亏平衡点下滑，名义指数跌至盘中低点，遭受重创的 FAAMG 板块稳步上涨：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a23d123d4d54bd6870a532a6dca4a802\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"509\"><blockquote></blockquote> Wall Street traders also find comfort in the latest hot take from Morgan Stanley's QDS desk which notes that the the trading desk noted\"there was no major panic outside the systematic community as the 'transitory inflation' narrative appeared to be adopted\"and furthermore, \"the desk continues to see demand in mega cap tech from the longer term community for the third day in a row.\"<blockquote>华尔街交易员还从摩根士丹利 QDS 部门的最新热门报道中找到了安慰，该部门指出，该交易部门指出“由于‘暂时性通胀’的说法似乎被采纳，系统性社区之外并没有出现重大恐慌”此外，“the desk 连续第三天继续看到长期社区对 mega cap 技术的需求。”</blockquote> Optimism was also fanned by market commentary from JPMorgan which almost verbatim echoed what we said yesterday...<blockquote>摩根大通的市场评论也助长了乐观情绪，这些评论几乎一字不差地呼应了我们昨天所说的……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a886dc7309253045b85fb3bdd52ffabd\" tg-width=\"519\" tg-height=\"264\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and overnight wrote that despite the blistering hot CPI and now PPI, nothing has changed \"from the Fed’s view. The Fed is focused on the labor market, believing that any transitory inflation can be weathered by Consumers.\" Some more from JPM:<blockquote>...《隔夜报》写道，尽管 CPI 和现在的 PPI 都炙手可热，但 “从美联储的角度来看，一切都没有改变。美联储关注的是劳动力市场，认为任何暂时性的通胀都能被消费者经受住”。摩根大通的更多信息：</blockquote> What is the Fed looking at (BLS)?US Market Intelligence thinks it is a combination of the unemployed (9.8mm; 6.1%), long-term unemployed (4.2mm, +3.1mm from Feb 2020), labor force participation rate (61.7%; -1.6% from Feb 2020), employment-population ratio (57.9%; -3.2% from Feb 2020), number of people not in labor force who want a job (6.6mm; +1.6mm from Feb 2020), and a new category “unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic” (9.4mm, down 2mm MoM, but this did not exist prior to Feb 2020; and, not all of these people are counted in unemployment measure). Finally, you have people “prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic” numbering 2.8mm which is -900k MoM; none of these people are counted in the unemployment measure. Combine these numbers and you see a US labor market that is more fragile than headline numbers suggest. This may be why we continue to see Fed speakers reiterate a data-driven approach.Conversely, this may also be why markets are now seemingly more sensitive to inflation. Commodity-based and COVIDinduced supply chain inflation may overlap with wage inflation, creating a situation where the Fed may have to act more strongly than what investors have witnessed previously. For those asking \"how to monetize this line of thinking\" JPM recommends commodities and commodity-linked Equities, specifically Energy: \"consider both integrates like XOM and CVX, or XLE for general exposure. Further, refiners are a strong long play through 2021Q3, potentially longer, and would view VLO and MPC as the favored ways to play. In addition to that, inflation expectations are likely to pull yields higher, which benefit Banks.\"<blockquote>美联储在看什么（BLS）？美国市场情报机构认为，这是失业人数（9.8 毫米；6.1%）、长期失业人数（4.2 毫米，比 2020 年 2 月增加 3.1 毫米）、劳动力参与率（61.7%；比 2020 年 2 月减少 1.6%）、就业人口比（57.9%；比 2020 年 2 月减少 3.2%）、非劳动力队伍中想要工作的人数（6.6 毫米；比 2020 年 2 月增加 1.6 毫米）以及一个新的类别“因疫情导致雇主关闭或失业而无法工作”（9.4 毫米，下降 2 毫米，但这在 2020 年 2 月之前并不存在；而且，并非所有这些人都计入失业指标）的综合结果。最后，还有“因疫情而无法找工作”的人数为 2.8 毫米，即 -90 万妈妈；这些人都不计入失业率。结合这些数字，你会发现美国劳动力市场比标题数字显示的更加脆弱。这可能是我们继续看到美联储发言人重申数据驱动方法的原因。相反，这可能也是市场现在似乎对通胀更加敏感的原因。基于大宗商品和新冠病毒引发的供应链通胀可能会与工资通胀重叠，从而造成美联储可能不得不采取比投资者之前目睹的更强有力的行动的局面。对于那些询问“如何将这种思路货币化”的人，摩根大通推荐大宗商品和与大宗商品相关的股票，特别是能源：“考虑 XOM 和 CVX 等综合股票，或者考虑 XLE 进行一般敞口。此外，炼油厂是 2021 年第三季度的强劲多头投资，可能会更长，并将 VLO 和 MPC 视为首选的投资方式。除此之外，通胀预期可能会推高收益率，这有利于银行。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-panic-markets-surge-transitory-inflation-narrative-reasserts-itself?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-panic-markets-surge-transitory-inflation-narrative-reasserts-itself?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164877086","content_text":"It seems that the \"non-transitory\" inflation panic that gripped markets yesterday, resulting in the biggest one-day drop in the S&P since February, is gradually transitioning to \"transitory\" again, and even though today's y/y PPI print of 6.2%,the highest on record, reaffirmed the soaring prices narrative...\n\n...today the \"transitory\" inflation mood is reasserting itself, with Emini futures surging almost 100 points from the overnight lows...\n\n... and the battered FAAMG sector is solidly in the green as closely watched 5Y breakevens slide and nominals are down to session lows:\n\nWall Street traders also find comfort in the latest hot take from Morgan Stanley's QDS desk which notes that the the trading desk noted\"there was no major panic outside the systematic community as the 'transitory inflation' narrative appeared to be adopted\"and furthermore, \"the desk continues to see demand in mega cap tech from the longer term community for the third day in a row.\"\nOptimism was also fanned by market commentary from JPMorgan which almost verbatim echoed what we said yesterday...\n\n... and overnight wrote that despite the blistering hot CPI and now PPI, nothing has changed \"from the Fed’s view. The Fed is focused on the labor market, believing that any transitory inflation can be weathered by Consumers.\" Some more from JPM:\n\nWhat is the Fed looking at (BLS)?US Market Intelligence thinks it is a combination of the unemployed (9.8mm; 6.1%), long-term unemployed (4.2mm, +3.1mm from Feb 2020), labor force participation rate (61.7%; -1.6% from Feb 2020), employment-population ratio (57.9%; -3.2% from Feb 2020), number of people not in labor force who want a job (6.6mm; +1.6mm from Feb 2020), and a new category “unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic” (9.4mm, down 2mm MoM, but this did not exist prior to Feb 2020; and, not all of these people are counted in unemployment measure). Finally, you have people “prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic” numbering 2.8mm which is -900k MoM; none of these people are counted in the unemployment measure.\n Combine these numbers and you see a US labor market that is more fragile than headline numbers suggest. This may be why we continue to see Fed speakers reiterate a data-driven approach.Conversely, this may also be why markets are now seemingly more sensitive to inflation. Commodity-based and COVIDinduced supply chain inflation may overlap with wage inflation, creating a situation where the Fed may have to act more strongly than what investors have witnessed previously.\n\nFor those asking \"how to monetize this line of thinking\" JPM recommends commodities and commodity-linked Equities, specifically Energy: \"consider both integrates like XOM and CVX, or XLE for general exposure. Further, refiners are a strong long play through 2021Q3, potentially longer, and would view VLO and MPC as the favored ways to play. In addition to that, inflation expectations are likely to pull yields higher, which benefit Banks.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/198115235"}