HoldTheDoor
2021-05-19
Comment and like here to get good fortune
Why the bull market in stocks won’t be over until these 3 S&P 500 sectors sing<blockquote>为什么在这三个标普500板块唱响之前，股市牛市不会结束</blockquote>
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If anything, the relative performance of the U.S. stock market’s various style and sectors suggests the bull market will stay alive and well for at least a few more months.</p><p><blockquote>你不必担心价值的复苏高于增长是未来麻烦的先兆。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是美国股市各种风格和板块的相对表现表明，牛市至少还会持续几个月。</blockquote></p><p> This cheery forecast is at odds with the widespread opinion that value stocks’ relative strength is an early warning signal of market weakness.Investopedia gives voice to this narrative when it writes: “Value stocks tend to outperform during bear markets and economic recessions, while growth stocks tend to excel during bull markets or periods of economic expansion. This factor should, therefore, be taken into account by shorter-term investors or those seeking to time the markets.”</p><p><blockquote>Investopedia 写道： “价值股往往在熊市和经济衰退期间表现出色，而成长型股往往在牛市或经济扩张时期表现出色。因此，短期投资者或寻求把握市场时机的人应该考虑到这一因素”。</blockquote></p><p> The historical data don’t support this narrative. Consider the relative performance of value and growth stocks since the 1920s, per data from Dartmouth College professor Ken French. During all complete market cycles since then in the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research, value topped growth by an annualized average of 7.9% during bull markets—and lagged by an average of 2.5% annualized during bear markets. That’s just the opposite of what the prevailing narrative would have you believe.</p><p><blockquote>历史数据并不支持这种说法。根据达特茅斯学院教授肯·弗伦奇的数据，考虑一下自 20 世纪 20 年代以来价值股和成长型股票的相对表现。从那时起，在 Ned Davis Research 维护的日历中，在所有完整的市场周期中，价值在牛市期间的年化平均增长率为 7.9%，而在熊市期间的年化平均增长率则落后于 2.5%。这与流行的说法恰恰相反。</blockquote></p><p> Nor is it the case that value’s relative strength becomes stronger as bull markets near their end. When I focused on the last three months of all U.S. bull markets since the 1920s, the margin by which value beat growth was the same as it was, on average, across all other months of those bull markets. So value’s recent relative strength is not a source of concern in and of itself.</p><p><blockquote>牛市接近尾声时，价值的相对实力也不会变得更强。当我关注自 20 世纪 20 年代以来所有美国牛市的最后三个月时，价值跑赢增长的幅度与这些牛市所有其他月份的平均幅度相同。因此，value 最近的相对强势本身并不令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sector rankings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>行业排名</b></blockquote></p><p> There’s a more helpful way to slice and dice the market’s relative strength scoreboards to get an idea of where we are in the market cycle: Compare the sectors’ recent performance with relative strength rankings from the final three months of past bull markets. This is useful because the sectors undergo fairly predictable patterns of relative strength and weakness depending on where we are in that cycle.</p><p><blockquote>还有一种更有用的方法可以对市场的相对强度记分牌进行切片和切分，以了解我们在市场周期中的位置： 将各行业的近期表现与过去牛市最后三个月的相对强度排名进行比较。这很有用，因为这些行业会经历相当可预测的相对强弱模式，具体取决于我们在该周期中的位置。</blockquote></p><p> Sector relative-strength rankings currently do not suggest that a bear market is imminent. According to research conducted by Ned Davis Research, consumer staples, health care and consumer discretionary are the S&P 500 sectors that have performed the best, on average, in the last three months of all bull markets since 1970. They have not been the best peformers in the past three months of this year, as the chart below shows. Among the 10 S&P 500 sectors, they currently are in fifth, seventh and ninth places, respectively, for trailing three-month returns.</p><p><blockquote>行业相对强度排名目前并不表明熊市即将到来。根据 Ned Davis Research 进行的研究，在 1970 年以来所有牛市的最后三个月中，必需消费品、医疗保健和非必需消费品是平均表现最好的标普500板块。如下图所示，在今年的最后三个月里，他们并不是表现最好的。在10个标普500板块中，它们目前分别排名第五、第七和第九，追踪三个月的回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52471c292141cf7f68a2da8b0347c5cb\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"764\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> A similar story is told by focusing on the sectors that typically perform the worst in the last three months of bull markets. According to the Ned Davis data, they are financials, energy and utilities. Once again we’re not seeing this pattern now: These three sectors currently are in second, third and sixth place, respectively, in a ranking of trailing three-month returns.</p><p><blockquote>通过关注过去三个月牛市中表现最差的行业，也讲述了一个类似的故事。根据内德·戴维斯的数据，它们是金融、能源和公用事业。我们现在又一次没有看到这种模式： 在三个月回报率排名中，这三个行业目前分别位居第二、第三和第六位。</blockquote></p><p> No indicator is foolproof, of course. But this one is supported by the historical data, which is not the case for the argument that value’s relative strength is an early warning sign of market weakness.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有一个指标是万无一失的。但这一观点得到了历史数据的支持，而价值的相对强势是市场疲软的早期预警信号这一论点并不成立。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the bull market in stocks won’t be over until these 3 S&P 500 sectors sing<blockquote>为什么在这三个标普500板块唱响之前，股市牛市不会结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the bull market in stocks won’t be over until these 3 S&P 500 sectors sing<blockquote>为什么在这三个标普500板块唱响之前，股市牛市不会结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-19 15:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Consumer discretionary, health care and consumer staples do best near the end of bull runs</p><p><blockquote>非必需消费品、医疗保健和必需消费品在牛市即将结束时表现最佳</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74221fd0d510ee1df46b9afaa9e8a7e8\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"883\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You don’t need to worry that value’s resurgence over growth is a harbinger of trouble ahead. If anything, the relative performance of the U.S. stock market’s various style and sectors suggests the bull market will stay alive and well for at least a few more months.</p><p><blockquote>你不必担心价值的复苏高于增长是未来麻烦的先兆。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是美国股市各种风格和板块的相对表现表明，牛市至少还会持续几个月。</blockquote></p><p> This cheery forecast is at odds with the widespread opinion that value stocks’ relative strength is an early warning signal of market weakness.Investopedia gives voice to this narrative when it writes: “Value stocks tend to outperform during bear markets and economic recessions, while growth stocks tend to excel during bull markets or periods of economic expansion. This factor should, therefore, be taken into account by shorter-term investors or those seeking to time the markets.”</p><p><blockquote>Investopedia 写道： “价值股往往在熊市和经济衰退期间表现出色，而成长型股往往在牛市或经济扩张时期表现出色。因此，短期投资者或寻求把握市场时机的人应该考虑到这一因素”。</blockquote></p><p> The historical data don’t support this narrative. Consider the relative performance of value and growth stocks since the 1920s, per data from Dartmouth College professor Ken French. During all complete market cycles since then in the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research, value topped growth by an annualized average of 7.9% during bull markets—and lagged by an average of 2.5% annualized during bear markets. That’s just the opposite of what the prevailing narrative would have you believe.</p><p><blockquote>历史数据并不支持这种说法。根据达特茅斯学院教授肯·弗伦奇的数据，考虑一下自 20 世纪 20 年代以来价值股和成长型股票的相对表现。从那时起，在 Ned Davis Research 维护的日历中，在所有完整的市场周期中，价值在牛市期间的年化平均增长率为 7.9%，而在熊市期间的年化平均增长率则落后于 2.5%。这与流行的说法恰恰相反。</blockquote></p><p> Nor is it the case that value’s relative strength becomes stronger as bull markets near their end. When I focused on the last three months of all U.S. bull markets since the 1920s, the margin by which value beat growth was the same as it was, on average, across all other months of those bull markets. So value’s recent relative strength is not a source of concern in and of itself.</p><p><blockquote>牛市接近尾声时，价值的相对实力也不会变得更强。当我关注自 20 世纪 20 年代以来所有美国牛市的最后三个月时，价值跑赢增长的幅度与这些牛市所有其他月份的平均幅度相同。因此，value 最近的相对强势本身并不令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sector rankings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>行业排名</b></blockquote></p><p> There’s a more helpful way to slice and dice the market’s relative strength scoreboards to get an idea of where we are in the market cycle: Compare the sectors’ recent performance with relative strength rankings from the final three months of past bull markets. This is useful because the sectors undergo fairly predictable patterns of relative strength and weakness depending on where we are in that cycle.</p><p><blockquote>还有一种更有用的方法可以对市场的相对强度记分牌进行切片和切分，以了解我们在市场周期中的位置： 将各行业的近期表现与过去牛市最后三个月的相对强度排名进行比较。这很有用，因为这些行业会经历相当可预测的相对强弱模式，具体取决于我们在该周期中的位置。</blockquote></p><p> Sector relative-strength rankings currently do not suggest that a bear market is imminent. According to research conducted by Ned Davis Research, consumer staples, health care and consumer discretionary are the S&P 500 sectors that have performed the best, on average, in the last three months of all bull markets since 1970. They have not been the best peformers in the past three months of this year, as the chart below shows. Among the 10 S&P 500 sectors, they currently are in fifth, seventh and ninth places, respectively, for trailing three-month returns.</p><p><blockquote>行业相对强度排名目前并不表明熊市即将到来。根据 Ned Davis Research 进行的研究，在 1970 年以来所有牛市的最后三个月中，必需消费品、医疗保健和非必需消费品是平均表现最好的标普500板块。如下图所示，在今年的最后三个月里，他们并不是表现最好的。在10个标普500板块中，它们目前分别排名第五、第七和第九，追踪三个月的回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52471c292141cf7f68a2da8b0347c5cb\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"764\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> A similar story is told by focusing on the sectors that typically perform the worst in the last three months of bull markets. According to the Ned Davis data, they are financials, energy and utilities. Once again we’re not seeing this pattern now: These three sectors currently are in second, third and sixth place, respectively, in a ranking of trailing three-month returns.</p><p><blockquote>通过关注过去三个月牛市中表现最差的行业，也讲述了一个类似的故事。根据内德·戴维斯的数据，它们是金融、能源和公用事业。我们现在又一次没有看到这种模式： 在三个月回报率排名中，这三个行业目前分别位居第二、第三和第六位。</blockquote></p><p> No indicator is foolproof, of course. But this one is supported by the historical data, which is not the case for the argument that value’s relative strength is an early warning sign of market weakness.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有一个指标是万无一失的。但这一观点得到了历史数据的支持，而价值的相对强势是市场疲软的早期预警信号这一论点并不成立。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-bull-market-wont-be-over-until-these-3-s-p-500-sectors-sing-11621322666?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-bull-market-wont-be-over-until-these-3-s-p-500-sectors-sing-11621322666?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145514511","content_text":"Consumer discretionary, health care and consumer staples do best near the end of bull runs\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nYou don’t need to worry that value’s resurgence over growth is a harbinger of trouble ahead. If anything, the relative performance of the U.S. stock market’s various style and sectors suggests the bull market will stay alive and well for at least a few more months.\nThis cheery forecast is at odds with the widespread opinion that value stocks’ relative strength is an early warning signal of market weakness.Investopedia gives voice to this narrative when it writes: “Value stocks tend to outperform during bear markets and economic recessions, while growth stocks tend to excel during bull markets or periods of economic expansion. This factor should, therefore, be taken into account by shorter-term investors or those seeking to time the markets.”\nThe historical data don’t support this narrative. Consider the relative performance of value and growth stocks since the 1920s, per data from Dartmouth College professor Ken French. During all complete market cycles since then in the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research, value topped growth by an annualized average of 7.9% during bull markets—and lagged by an average of 2.5% annualized during bear markets. That’s just the opposite of what the prevailing narrative would have you believe.\nNor is it the case that value’s relative strength becomes stronger as bull markets near their end. When I focused on the last three months of all U.S. bull markets since the 1920s, the margin by which value beat growth was the same as it was, on average, across all other months of those bull markets. So value’s recent relative strength is not a source of concern in and of itself.\nSector rankings\nThere’s a more helpful way to slice and dice the market’s relative strength scoreboards to get an idea of where we are in the market cycle: Compare the sectors’ recent performance with relative strength rankings from the final three months of past bull markets. This is useful because the sectors undergo fairly predictable patterns of relative strength and weakness depending on where we are in that cycle.\nSector relative-strength rankings currently do not suggest that a bear market is imminent. According to research conducted by Ned Davis Research, consumer staples, health care and consumer discretionary are the S&P 500 sectors that have performed the best, on average, in the last three months of all bull markets since 1970. They have not been the best peformers in the past three months of this year, as the chart below shows. Among the 10 S&P 500 sectors, they currently are in fifth, seventh and ninth places, respectively, for trailing three-month returns.\n\nA similar story is told by focusing on the sectors that typically perform the worst in the last three months of bull markets. According to the Ned Davis data, they are financials, energy and utilities. Once again we’re not seeing this pattern now: These three sectors currently are in second, third and sixth place, respectively, in a ranking of trailing three-month returns.\nNo indicator is foolproof, of course. But this one is supported by the historical data, which is not the case for the argument that value’s relative strength is an early warning sign of market weakness.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":918,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":34,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/197095419"}
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