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2021-05-12

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Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点：华尔街的 “弥天大谎”：业绩说法越来越令人难以置信</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":193796343,"tweetId":"193796343","gmtCreate":1620817478582,"gmtModify":1634196098562,"author":{"id":3578184767413282,"idStr":"3578184767413282","authorId":3578184767413282,"authorIdStr":"3578184767413282","name":"LXM_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe257b5feafd611e8d43cb8c765f59d6","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like x Comment</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like x Comment</body></html>","text":"Like x Comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193796343","repostId":1174599088,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174599088","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620814183,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174599088?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-12 18:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点： 华尔街的 “弥天大谎”： 业绩说法越来越令人难以置信</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174599088","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of ma","content":"So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.<blockquote>所以你认为让你的钱乘以10倍很容易？我指的是一种宣传技巧，它的说法如此离谱，以至于人们认为其中一定有一定的道理。小谎言被驳回，但大谎言被相信。</blockquote>Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: “Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”<blockquote>想想我收件箱里这个周末引起我注意的点击诱饵：“有了这种加密货币，你的钱就能轻松翻10倍。”这篇文章引起我注意的一个原因是，它的作者是一个人，他在三个月前写了一篇类似的引人注目的文章，题为 “用这种加密货币让你的钱翻 100 倍”。</blockquote>The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.<blockquote>他在2月份支持的特定加密货币今天下跌了13%。</blockquote>For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.<blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道这个人是否故意歪曲事实。但事实仍然是，无论是股票还是比特币和其他加密货币等投资，没有人产生超过两位数百分比的长期年化回报率。</blockquote>No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.<blockquote>没人。声称产生 10 倍或 100 倍的回报 “很容易 ”在功能上等同于撒谎--即使提出这种说法的人并不想这样做。</blockquote>That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.<blockquote>这并不是说三位数甚至四位数的回报率不是偶尔--非常偶尔--产生的。但拉斯维加斯的头奖也是如此。因为即使有可能产生如此巨大的短期收益的策略也是极其危险的，回归均值将不可避免地迅速将这种回报带回现实。</blockquote>Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.<blockquote>想想我四十年来跟踪投资时事通讯表现的证据。随附的图表报告了受监控时事通讯中在不同持有期内最高的投资组合回报。在过去的12个月里，记分牌上的最高回报率是248%。相比之下，将持有期延长至过去五年，记分牌顶部的回报率要低得多，年化收益率为 33%。</blockquote>This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.<blockquote>如图所示，随着持有期的延长，这种下降趋势仍在继续。当我们关注过去 40 年时，最好的年化回报率是 14.0%。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e72f13ee9de2c745913ad0debd3b6c0\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\"><blockquote></blockquote>Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.<blockquote>不要认为这种模式是投资通讯行业独有的。共同基金和对冲基金也出现了几乎相同的结果。</blockquote>The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”<blockquote>据我所知，记录最好的长期回报是由文艺复兴科技公司的私人奖章基金产生的。加州大学洛杉矶分校名誉教授 Brad Cornell 报告称，该基金在 1988 年至 2018 年间的年化回报率（扣除费用）为 39.2%，而标普500指数的年化回报率为 10.0%，因此该基金的回报率远远好于华尔街上的任何其他基金，以至于康奈尔承认自己 “目瞪口呆”；他说，回归在功能上相当于 “太阳从西方升起”。</blockquote>And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.<blockquote>然而，请注意，Medallion 基金的年化回报率 “仅为 ”39%。这距离加密货币 “轻松 ”获得 100 倍回报还有很长的路要走。</blockquote>If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.<blockquote>如果你是婴儿潮一代，你已经知道并接受了这些教训。相比之下，如果你是 Z 世代，那么严厉的打击学校还没有教给你这些课程。</blockquote>I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.<blockquote>一个月前，我专门写了一篇专栏文章，探讨牛市后期年龄和冒险行为之间的相关性。在最年轻的投资者经历第一次大熊市之前，他们都是无所畏惧的冒险家，坚信赚钱很容易。经历过一次或多次严重熊市的老年投资者年纪更大、更聪明。</blockquote>This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)<blockquote>评论在线赌场的网站GamblersPick最近的一份报告再次证实了这种对比。该网站调查了872名投资者的风险承受能力；受访者在下表中列出的四代人中几乎平均分配。(表格中百分比中未反映的人的余额表明他们是 “中立的”，既不容忍风险，也不厌恶风险）。</blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>Generation</td><td>Risk-tolerant</td><td>Risk-averse</td></tr><tr><td>Gen Z</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Millennials</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>Gen X</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>Baby boomers and older</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>代</td><td>风险承受能力</td><td>规避风险</td></tr><tr><td>Z世代</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>千禧一代</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>X世代</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>婴儿潮一代及以上</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>根据我的经验，再多的学术教育（“书本知识”）也无法完全取代从熊市中实际生活中学到的东西。这意味着，如今敢于承受风险的年轻投资者有朝一日也会成为我们今天看来的老油条。</blockquote>In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.<blockquote>与此同时，他们和市场都如履薄冰。虽然我们不知道未来几个月牛市的故事将如何展开，但我们知道它最终将如何结束。</blockquote>It’s not a happy one.<blockquote>这不是一个快乐的人。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点： 华尔街的 “弥天大谎”： 业绩说法越来越令人难以置信</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity<blockquote>观点： 华尔街的 “弥天大谎”： 业绩说法越来越令人难以置信</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-05-12 18:09\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSo you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.<blockquote>所以你认为让你的钱乘以10倍很容易？我指的是一种宣传技巧，它的说法如此离谱，以至于人们认为其中一定有一定的道理。小谎言被驳回，但大谎言被相信。</blockquote>Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: “Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”<blockquote>想想我收件箱里这个周末引起我注意的点击诱饵：“有了这种加密货币，你的钱就能轻松翻10倍。”这篇文章引起我注意的一个原因是，它的作者是一个人，他在三个月前写了一篇类似的引人注目的文章，题为 “用这种加密货币让你的钱翻 100 倍”。</blockquote>The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.<blockquote>他在2月份支持的特定加密货币今天下跌了13%。</blockquote>For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.<blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道这个人是否故意歪曲事实。但事实仍然是，无论是股票还是比特币和其他加密货币等投资，没有人产生超过两位数百分比的长期年化回报率。</blockquote>No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.<blockquote>没人。声称产生 10 倍或 100 倍的回报 “很容易 ”在功能上等同于撒谎--即使提出这种说法的人并不想这样做。</blockquote>That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.<blockquote>这并不是说三位数甚至四位数的回报率不是偶尔--非常偶尔--产生的。但拉斯维加斯的头奖也是如此。因为即使有可能产生如此巨大的短期收益的策略也是极其危险的，回归均值将不可避免地迅速将这种回报带回现实。</blockquote>Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.<blockquote>想想我四十年来跟踪投资时事通讯表现的证据。随附的图表报告了受监控时事通讯中在不同持有期内最高的投资组合回报。在过去的12个月里，记分牌上的最高回报率是248%。相比之下，将持有期延长至过去五年，记分牌顶部的回报率要低得多，年化收益率为 33%。</blockquote>This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.<blockquote>如图所示，随着持有期的延长，这种下降趋势仍在继续。当我们关注过去 40 年时，最好的年化回报率是 14.0%。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e72f13ee9de2c745913ad0debd3b6c0\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\"><blockquote></blockquote>Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.<blockquote>不要认为这种模式是投资通讯行业独有的。共同基金和对冲基金也出现了几乎相同的结果。</blockquote>The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”<blockquote>据我所知，记录最好的长期回报是由文艺复兴科技公司的私人奖章基金产生的。加州大学洛杉矶分校名誉教授 Brad Cornell 报告称，该基金在 1988 年至 2018 年间的年化回报率（扣除费用）为 39.2%，而标普500指数的年化回报率为 10.0%，因此该基金的回报率远远好于华尔街上的任何其他基金，以至于康奈尔承认自己 “目瞪口呆”；他说，回归在功能上相当于 “太阳从西方升起”。</blockquote>And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.<blockquote>然而，请注意，Medallion 基金的年化回报率 “仅为 ”39%。这距离加密货币 “轻松 ”获得 100 倍回报还有很长的路要走。</blockquote>If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.<blockquote>如果你是婴儿潮一代，你已经知道并接受了这些教训。相比之下，如果你是 Z 世代，那么严厉的打击学校还没有教给你这些课程。</blockquote>I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.<blockquote>一个月前，我专门写了一篇专栏文章，探讨牛市后期年龄和冒险行为之间的相关性。在最年轻的投资者经历第一次大熊市之前，他们都是无所畏惧的冒险家，坚信赚钱很容易。经历过一次或多次严重熊市的老年投资者年纪更大、更聪明。</blockquote>This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)<blockquote>评论在线赌场的网站GamblersPick最近的一份报告再次证实了这种对比。该网站调查了872名投资者的风险承受能力；受访者在下表中列出的四代人中几乎平均分配。(表格中百分比中未反映的人的余额表明他们是 “中立的”，既不容忍风险，也不厌恶风险）。</blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>Generation</td><td>Risk-tolerant</td><td>Risk-averse</td></tr><tr><td>Gen Z</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Millennials</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>Gen X</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>Baby boomers and older</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>代</td><td>风险承受能力</td><td>规避风险</td></tr><tr><td>Z世代</td><td>57%</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>千禧一代</td><td>49%</td><td>32%</td></tr><tr><td>X世代</td><td>38%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>婴儿潮一代及以上</td><td>36%</td><td>46%</td></tr></tbody></table>根据我的经验，再多的学术教育（“书本知识”）也无法完全取代从熊市中实际生活中学到的东西。这意味着，如今敢于承受风险的年轻投资者有朝一日也会成为我们今天看来的老油条。</blockquote>In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.<blockquote>与此同时，他们和市场都如履薄冰。虽然我们不知道未来几个月牛市的故事将如何展开，但我们知道它最终将如何结束。</blockquote>It’s not a happy one.<blockquote>这不是一个快乐的人。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-big-lie-performance-claims-that-are-increasingly-straining-credulity-11620680630?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-big-lie-performance-claims-that-are-increasingly-straining-credulity-11620680630?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174599088","content_text":"So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies are dismissed, but big lies are believed.Consider this bit of clickbait in my inbox that caught my eye over the weekend: “Easily 10x your Money with this Cryptocurrency.” One reason it got my attention is that it was written by an individual who three months ago wrote a similar attention-grabbing piece entitled “100x Your Money With This Cryptocurrency.”The particular cryptocurrency he was championing in February is 13% lower today.For the record, I have no idea whether this individual was intentionally bending the truth. But the fact remains that no one produces long-term annualized returns in excess of percentages in the low double digits, whether for stocks or investments like bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.No one. To claim that producing a 10x or a 100x return is “easy” is the functional equivalent of lying—even if the claim’s perpetrators don’t intend it to be.That’s not to say that triple or even quadruple-digit returns aren’t occasionally—very occasionally—produced. But so are jackpots in Vegas. Because strategies that have even the potential of producing short-term gains that big are extraordinarily risky, regression to the mean will inevitably and quickly bring such returns back down to earth.Consider the evidence from my four decades of tracking the performance of investment newsletters. The accompanying chart reports the portfolio returns among monitored newsletters that are the highest over various holding periods. Over the last 12 months, the scoreboard-topping return is 248%. Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&P 500 index That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)GenerationRisk-tolerantRisk-averseGen Z57%25%Millennials49%32%Gen X38%44%Baby boomers and older36%46%In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.It’s not a happy one.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":821,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/193796343"}