Hedge funders report high earn_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-05-13

Hedge funders report high earnings. Reap from the retail investor

Opinion: The bears control the market now but it will be hard for them to hold it<blockquote>观点：空头现在控制了市场，但他们很难守住市场</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":191709653,"tweetId":"191709653","gmtCreate":1620904550572,"gmtModify":1631889406816,"author":{"id":3574980379472814,"idStr":"3574980379472814","authorId":3574980379472814,"authorIdStr":"3574980379472814","name":"Blackrose","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42b16cfc65bcd98072134f84fc762e93","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Hedge funders report high earnings. &nbsp;Reap from the retail investor&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Hedge funders report high earnings. &nbsp;Reap from the retail investor&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Hedge funders report high earnings. Reap from the retail investor","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191709653","repostId":1182877825,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182877825","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620900565,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1182877825?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-13 18:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: The bears control the market now but it will be hard for them to hold it<blockquote>观点：空头现在控制了市场，但他们很难守住市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182877825","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"This S&P 500 pullback is unlikely to be very deep.The stock market’s bears finally have broken throu","content":"This S&amp;P 500 pullback is unlikely to be very deep.The stock market’s bears finally have broken through and several factors have combined to spark this setback in stock prices.<blockquote>这次标普500回调不太可能很深。股市的空头终于突破了，几个因素共同引发了股价的这次挫折。</blockquote>First, retail investors are losing interest in stocks. &nbsp;Remember the retail frenzy as the Reddit crowd whipped up enthusiasm for meme stocks? Remember how flash mobs drove up selected issues with call-option buying which forced market-makers to hedge by buying the underlying stocks?<blockquote>首先，散户投资者正在对股票失去兴趣。还记得 Reddit 人群激起人们对模因股票的热情时的零售狂热吗？还记得快闪族如何通过购买看涨期权期权来推动选定的问题，迫使做市商通过购买标的股票来对冲吗？</blockquote>That’s mostly gone. In the short run, there was a lot of hand-wringing about the call buying as a sign of excessive speculation. My longer-term view is a rising equity call/put ratio is a sign of bullish momentum and rising call/put ratios were coincidental with equity bull phases. In the past, a decline of the 50-day moving average (dma) of the call/put ratio below the 200-day moving average has signaled pauses in bullish advances in the past.<blockquote>那已经基本消失了。从短期来看，人们对看涨期权的购买表示不满，认为这是过度投机的迹象。我的长期观点是，股票看涨期权/看跌期权比率上升是看涨势头的标志，而看涨期权/看跌期权比率上升与股票牛市阶段相吻合。过去，看涨期权/看跌期权比率的50天移动平均线（dma）跌破200天移动平均线，预示着过去看涨的暂停。</blockquote>Bad news from overseas on the pandemic front may have also contributed to the risk-off tone. Taiwan announced limits on crowds, following Singapore’s move to restrict foreign workers, in a wave of new restrictions in Asian countries trying to stamp out small outbreaks after months of keeping COVID-19 contained.<blockquote>来自海外的疫情方面的坏消息也可能导致了避险基调。继新加坡限制外籍劳工之后，台湾宣布限制人群，这是亚洲国家在控制 COVID-19 数月后试图遏制小规模疫情的一波新限制浪潮。</blockquote>The new curbs prompted fears that economic growth could stall out, which led to stock selloffs in both countries this week. Low vaccination rates as well are contributing to concerns that their populations could be vulnerable if faster-spreading variants take hold.<blockquote>新的限制措施引发了人们对经济增长可能停滞的担忧，导致两国本周股票抛售。低疫苗接种率也加剧了人们的担忧，即如果传播更快的变种占据主导地位，他们的人口可能会变得脆弱。</blockquote>The burst of stock-market gains and push to new highs early on Monday was reversed during the session, causing a spike in the number of stocks suffering a buying climax. This is triggered when a stock hits a 52-week high then reverses to close below the prior day’s close, potentially a sign of exhaustion among buyers.<blockquote>周一早些时候股市的爆发式上涨和创出新高的趋势在盘中被逆转，导致遭遇买盘高潮的股票数量激增。当股票触及 52 周高点，然后反转收于前一天收盘价以下时，就会触发这种情况，这可能是买家疲惫不堪的迹象。</blockquote>Our Backtest Engine shows that this is the sixth-largest number of climaxes in a single day since the inception of the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF TrustSPY,-2.12%.Every time more than 95 stocks suffered a buying climax, the S&amp;P 500SPX,-2.14%showed a loss over the next one-to-two months. There were few losses over the next six-12 months, and they were relatively small.<blockquote>我们的回测引擎显示，这是自 SPDR 标普500 ETF TrustSPY,-2.12% 成立以来单日买入高潮次数第六多。每当超过 95 只股票出现买入高潮时，标准普尔 500SPX,-2.14% 显示未来一到两个月内出现亏损。在接下来的6-12个月里，损失很少，而且相对较小。</blockquote>Equally disturbing is the performance of the bellwether growth-cyclical PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,-4.20%.This index has now violated both absolute- and relative rising trend lines that stretched back a year.<blockquote>同样令人不安的是增长周期性领头羊 PHLX 半导体指数 SOX 的表现，-4.20%。该指数现已突破一年前的绝对和相对上升趋势线。</blockquote>Putting it all together, these are all signs that the bears are taking control of the tape.<blockquote>综上所述，这些都是空头控制磁带的迹象。</blockquote>Where’s the bottom?<blockquote>底部在哪里？</blockquote>This S&amp;P 500 pullback is unlikely to be very deep. A logical support level is the 50-day moving average, at about 4050, which represents a peak-to-trough downside risk of -4.4% and just 1% down from current levels.<blockquote>这次标普500回调不太可能很深。合乎逻辑的支撑位是 50 天移动平均线，约为 4050，这代表着峰谷下行风险为 -4.4%，仅比当前水平下降 1%。</blockquote>Some of my bottoming indicators are already starting to come into place. The five-day RSI is flashing an oversold reading, which is the first sign of a bottoming process. The CBOE Volatility IndexVIX,-1.01%(VIX) has spiked above its upper Bollinger Band, which is also a short-term oversold indicator for the stock market.<blockquote>我的一些触底指标已经开始到位。五天 RSI 显示超卖读数，这是触底过程的第一个迹象。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数VIX,-1.01%(VIX)已飙升至布林带上轨上方，这也是股市短期超卖指标。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0da531d0b7f12f393c10e69f925f9e69\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>However, the term structure of the VIX is not inverted, indicating fear. Markets need panic to set in for a durable bottom to be made. As well, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) has not flashed an oversold condition yet.<blockquote>然而，VIX 的期限结构并没有倒置，表明存在恐惧。市场需要恐慌才能形成持久的底部。此外，纽约证券交易所麦克莱伦振荡器 (NYMO) 尚未出现超卖情况。</blockquote>While the S&amp;P 500 is holding up relatively well and being supported by the relative strength of value stocks, growth stocks show considerably more downside risk. Despite violating its 50-day moving average and violating an important relative support zone, the NASDAQ 100NDX,-2.62%is not showing any signs of a durable bottom ahead. The percentage of Nasdaq stocks above their 50-day moving average is not oversold, and neither is the NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator (NAMO). The most logical support level for NASDAQ 100 is the 200-day moving average at about 12,500.<blockquote>虽然标普500表现相对较好，并受到价值股相对强势的支撑，但成长型股表现出更大的下行风险。尽管突破了 50 天移动平均线并突破了重要的相对支撑区，但纳斯达克 100NDX,-2.62% 并未显示出任何持久底部的迹象。纳斯达克股票高于 50 天移动平均线的百分比并没有超卖，纳斯达克·麦克莱伦振荡指标 (NAMO) 也没有。纳斯达克 100 指数最合乎逻辑的支撑位是 200 日移动平均线约 12,500 点。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f833eb8fa046378880796cb39492f08f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>The market was already oversold as of Tuesday’s close. Wednesday’s skid will undoubtedly stretch short-term readings further. In all likelihood, the market will bounce on Thursday, but how it holds the strength will be a test for both bulls and bears in the coming days. The primary trend is still up, and the risk/reward of trying to profit from a countertrend correction in a bull market is unfavorable.<blockquote>截至周二收盘，市场已经超卖。周三的下滑无疑将进一步拉长短期读数。周四市场很可能会反弹，但如何保持强势将是未来几天对多头和空头的考验。初级趋势仍然是向上的，在牛市中试图从逆势修正中获利的风险/回报是不利的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e54f14e263a6a2144f5f1e421b87122\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>Cam Hui writes the investment blogHumble Student of the Markets. He is a former equity portfolio manager and sell-side analyst.<blockquote>Cam Hui 撰写投资博客《市场的谦逊学生》。他是前股票投资组合经理和卖方分析师。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: The bears control the market now but it will be hard for them to hold it<blockquote>观点：空头现在控制了市场，但他们很难守住市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: The bears control the market now but it will be hard for them to hold it<blockquote>观点：空头现在控制了市场，但他们很难守住市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-05-13 18:09\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThis S&amp;P 500 pullback is unlikely to be very deep.The stock market’s bears finally have broken through and several factors have combined to spark this setback in stock prices.<blockquote>这次标普500回调不太可能很深。股市的空头终于突破了，几个因素共同引发了股价的这次挫折。</blockquote>First, retail investors are losing interest in stocks. &nbsp;Remember the retail frenzy as the Reddit crowd whipped up enthusiasm for meme stocks? Remember how flash mobs drove up selected issues with call-option buying which forced market-makers to hedge by buying the underlying stocks?<blockquote>首先，散户投资者正在对股票失去兴趣。还记得 Reddit 人群激起人们对模因股票的热情时的零售狂热吗？还记得快闪族如何通过购买看涨期权期权来推动选定的问题，迫使做市商通过购买标的股票来对冲吗？</blockquote>That’s mostly gone. In the short run, there was a lot of hand-wringing about the call buying as a sign of excessive speculation. My longer-term view is a rising equity call/put ratio is a sign of bullish momentum and rising call/put ratios were coincidental with equity bull phases. In the past, a decline of the 50-day moving average (dma) of the call/put ratio below the 200-day moving average has signaled pauses in bullish advances in the past.<blockquote>那已经基本消失了。从短期来看，人们对看涨期权的购买表示不满，认为这是过度投机的迹象。我的长期观点是，股票看涨期权/看跌期权比率上升是看涨势头的标志，而看涨期权/看跌期权比率上升与股票牛市阶段相吻合。过去，看涨期权/看跌期权比率的50天移动平均线（dma）跌破200天移动平均线，预示着过去看涨的暂停。</blockquote>Bad news from overseas on the pandemic front may have also contributed to the risk-off tone. Taiwan announced limits on crowds, following Singapore’s move to restrict foreign workers, in a wave of new restrictions in Asian countries trying to stamp out small outbreaks after months of keeping COVID-19 contained.<blockquote>来自海外的疫情方面的坏消息也可能导致了避险基调。继新加坡限制外籍劳工之后，台湾宣布限制人群，这是亚洲国家在控制 COVID-19 数月后试图遏制小规模疫情的一波新限制浪潮。</blockquote>The new curbs prompted fears that economic growth could stall out, which led to stock selloffs in both countries this week. Low vaccination rates as well are contributing to concerns that their populations could be vulnerable if faster-spreading variants take hold.<blockquote>新的限制措施引发了人们对经济增长可能停滞的担忧，导致两国本周股票抛售。低疫苗接种率也加剧了人们的担忧，即如果传播更快的变种占据主导地位，他们的人口可能会变得脆弱。</blockquote>The burst of stock-market gains and push to new highs early on Monday was reversed during the session, causing a spike in the number of stocks suffering a buying climax. This is triggered when a stock hits a 52-week high then reverses to close below the prior day’s close, potentially a sign of exhaustion among buyers.<blockquote>周一早些时候股市的爆发式上涨和创出新高的趋势在盘中被逆转，导致遭遇买盘高潮的股票数量激增。当股票触及 52 周高点，然后反转收于前一天收盘价以下时，就会触发这种情况，这可能是买家疲惫不堪的迹象。</blockquote>Our Backtest Engine shows that this is the sixth-largest number of climaxes in a single day since the inception of the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF TrustSPY,-2.12%.Every time more than 95 stocks suffered a buying climax, the S&amp;P 500SPX,-2.14%showed a loss over the next one-to-two months. There were few losses over the next six-12 months, and they were relatively small.<blockquote>我们的回测引擎显示，这是自 SPDR 标普500 ETF TrustSPY,-2.12% 成立以来单日买入高潮次数第六多。每当超过 95 只股票出现买入高潮时，标准普尔 500SPX,-2.14% 显示未来一到两个月内出现亏损。在接下来的6-12个月里，损失很少，而且相对较小。</blockquote>Equally disturbing is the performance of the bellwether growth-cyclical PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,-4.20%.This index has now violated both absolute- and relative rising trend lines that stretched back a year.<blockquote>同样令人不安的是增长周期性领头羊 PHLX 半导体指数 SOX 的表现，-4.20%。该指数现已突破一年前的绝对和相对上升趋势线。</blockquote>Putting it all together, these are all signs that the bears are taking control of the tape.<blockquote>综上所述，这些都是空头控制磁带的迹象。</blockquote>Where’s the bottom?<blockquote>底部在哪里？</blockquote>This S&amp;P 500 pullback is unlikely to be very deep. A logical support level is the 50-day moving average, at about 4050, which represents a peak-to-trough downside risk of -4.4% and just 1% down from current levels.<blockquote>这次标普500回调不太可能很深。合乎逻辑的支撑位是 50 天移动平均线，约为 4050，这代表着峰谷下行风险为 -4.4%，仅比当前水平下降 1%。</blockquote>Some of my bottoming indicators are already starting to come into place. The five-day RSI is flashing an oversold reading, which is the first sign of a bottoming process. The CBOE Volatility IndexVIX,-1.01%(VIX) has spiked above its upper Bollinger Band, which is also a short-term oversold indicator for the stock market.<blockquote>我的一些触底指标已经开始到位。五天 RSI 显示超卖读数，这是触底过程的第一个迹象。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数VIX,-1.01%(VIX)已飙升至布林带上轨上方，这也是股市短期超卖指标。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0da531d0b7f12f393c10e69f925f9e69\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>However, the term structure of the VIX is not inverted, indicating fear. Markets need panic to set in for a durable bottom to be made. As well, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) has not flashed an oversold condition yet.<blockquote>然而，VIX 的期限结构并没有倒置，表明存在恐惧。市场需要恐慌才能形成持久的底部。此外，纽约证券交易所麦克莱伦振荡器 (NYMO) 尚未出现超卖情况。</blockquote>While the S&amp;P 500 is holding up relatively well and being supported by the relative strength of value stocks, growth stocks show considerably more downside risk. Despite violating its 50-day moving average and violating an important relative support zone, the NASDAQ 100NDX,-2.62%is not showing any signs of a durable bottom ahead. The percentage of Nasdaq stocks above their 50-day moving average is not oversold, and neither is the NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator (NAMO). The most logical support level for NASDAQ 100 is the 200-day moving average at about 12,500.<blockquote>虽然标普500表现相对较好，并受到价值股相对强势的支撑，但成长型股表现出更大的下行风险。尽管突破了 50 天移动平均线并突破了重要的相对支撑区，但纳斯达克 100NDX,-2.62% 并未显示出任何持久底部的迹象。纳斯达克股票高于 50 天移动平均线的百分比并没有超卖，纳斯达克·麦克莱伦振荡指标 (NAMO) 也没有。纳斯达克 100 指数最合乎逻辑的支撑位是 200 日移动平均线约 12,500 点。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f833eb8fa046378880796cb39492f08f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>The market was already oversold as of Tuesday’s close. Wednesday’s skid will undoubtedly stretch short-term readings further. In all likelihood, the market will bounce on Thursday, but how it holds the strength will be a test for both bulls and bears in the coming days. The primary trend is still up, and the risk/reward of trying to profit from a countertrend correction in a bull market is unfavorable.<blockquote>截至周二收盘，市场已经超卖。周三的下滑无疑将进一步拉长短期读数。周四市场很可能会反弹，但如何保持强势将是未来几天对多头和空头的考验。初级趋势仍然是向上的，在牛市中试图从逆势修正中获利的风险/回报是不利的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e54f14e263a6a2144f5f1e421b87122\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>Cam Hui writes the investment blogHumble Student of the Markets. He is a former equity portfolio manager and sell-side analyst.<blockquote>Cam Hui 撰写投资博客《市场的谦逊学生》。他是前股票投资组合经理和卖方分析师。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bears-control-the-market-now-but-it-will-be-hard-for-them-to-hold-it-11620867023?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bears-control-the-market-now-but-it-will-be-hard-for-them-to-hold-it-11620867023?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182877825","content_text":"This S&P 500 pullback is unlikely to be very deep.The stock market’s bears finally have broken through and several factors have combined to spark this setback in stock prices.First, retail investors are losing interest in stocks.  Remember the retail frenzy as the Reddit crowd whipped up enthusiasm for meme stocks? Remember how flash mobs drove up selected issues with call-option buying which forced market-makers to hedge by buying the underlying stocks?That’s mostly gone. In the short run, there was a lot of hand-wringing about the call buying as a sign of excessive speculation. My longer-term view is a rising equity call/put ratio is a sign of bullish momentum and rising call/put ratios were coincidental with equity bull phases. In the past, a decline of the 50-day moving average (dma) of the call/put ratio below the 200-day moving average has signaled pauses in bullish advances in the past.Bad news from overseas on the pandemic front may have also contributed to the risk-off tone. Taiwan announced limits on crowds, following Singapore’s move to restrict foreign workers, in a wave of new restrictions in Asian countries trying to stamp out small outbreaks after months of keeping COVID-19 contained.The new curbs prompted fears that economic growth could stall out, which led to stock selloffs in both countries this week. Low vaccination rates as well are contributing to concerns that their populations could be vulnerable if faster-spreading variants take hold.The burst of stock-market gains and push to new highs early on Monday was reversed during the session, causing a spike in the number of stocks suffering a buying climax. This is triggered when a stock hits a 52-week high then reverses to close below the prior day’s close, potentially a sign of exhaustion among buyers.Our Backtest Engine shows that this is the sixth-largest number of climaxes in a single day since the inception of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustSPY,-2.12%.Every time more than 95 stocks suffered a buying climax, the S&P 500SPX,-2.14%showed a loss over the next one-to-two months. There were few losses over the next six-12 months, and they were relatively small.Equally disturbing is the performance of the bellwether growth-cyclical PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,-4.20%.This index has now violated both absolute- and relative rising trend lines that stretched back a year.Putting it all together, these are all signs that the bears are taking control of the tape.Where’s the bottom?This S&P 500 pullback is unlikely to be very deep. A logical support level is the 50-day moving average, at about 4050, which represents a peak-to-trough downside risk of -4.4% and just 1% down from current levels.Some of my bottoming indicators are already starting to come into place. The five-day RSI is flashing an oversold reading, which is the first sign of a bottoming process. The CBOE Volatility IndexVIX,-1.01%(VIX) has spiked above its upper Bollinger Band, which is also a short-term oversold indicator for the stock market.However, the term structure of the VIX is not inverted, indicating fear. Markets need panic to set in for a durable bottom to be made. As well, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) has not flashed an oversold condition yet.While the S&P 500 is holding up relatively well and being supported by the relative strength of value stocks, growth stocks show considerably more downside risk. Despite violating its 50-day moving average and violating an important relative support zone, the NASDAQ 100NDX,-2.62%is not showing any signs of a durable bottom ahead. The percentage of Nasdaq stocks above their 50-day moving average is not oversold, and neither is the NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator (NAMO). The most logical support level for NASDAQ 100 is the 200-day moving average at about 12,500.The market was already oversold as of Tuesday’s close. Wednesday’s skid will undoubtedly stretch short-term readings further. In all likelihood, the market will bounce on Thursday, but how it holds the strength will be a test for both bulls and bears in the coming days. The primary trend is still up, and the risk/reward of trying to profit from a countertrend correction in a bull market is unfavorable.Cam Hui writes the investment blogHumble Student of the Markets. He is a former equity portfolio manager and sell-side analyst.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3446,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":56,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/191709653"}