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2021-06-10

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With Fed's Reverse Repo Hitting Half A Trillion, Wall Street Scrambles To Figure Out What Comes Next<blockquote>随着美联储逆回购规模达到 5000 万亿美元，华尔街争先恐后地弄清楚下一步会发生什么</blockquote>

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In this context, the Fed’s RRP acts as a “release valve” for deposits to leave banks’ balance sheets via inflows into money funds, which are then deposited at the facility.<blockquote>这给银行的补充杠杆率带来了下行压力、因此，现在机构必须要么筹集资金，要么减少贷款.在这种情况下，美联储的 RRP 就像一个 “释放阀”，让存款通过流入货币基金离开银行的资产负债表，然后存入银行的设施。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141d0979a36d1c83edb097f1181ee6eb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\"><blockquote></blockquote> According to Zeng, and as we have explained previously, the main merit of raising the RRP rate is to make money funds a “more attractive option to bank deposits,” which can allow institutions to push out more deposits and better manage their balance-sheet size until a “more permanent change to bank capital rules is made.”<blockquote>曾先生认为，正如我们之前所解释的，提高RRP利率的主要好处是使货币基金成为 “对银行存款更具吸引力的选择”，这可以让机构推出更多存款，更好地管理其资产负债表规模，直到 “对银行资本规则进行更永久性的改变”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db701c691b65734c79e446994ff9334f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"349\"><blockquote></blockquote> Currently, money-market yields are low and their margins are squeezed,so a boost to the RRP rate would make money funds a “more attractive option than bank deposits,” allowing more cash to leave the banking sector.Separately, JPMorgan writes that most money-market funds have not reached their counterparty limits at the Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility so they may not have to adjust their thresholds at the moment.<blockquote>目前，货币市场收益率较低，利润率受到挤压，因此，提高建议零售价利率将使货币基金成为 “比银行存款更具吸引力的选择”，从而使更多现金离开银行业。另外，摩根大通写道，大多数货币市场基金尚未达到美联储隔夜逆回购协议工具的交易对手限额，因此它们目前可能无需调整门槛。</blockquote> Of course, one can't have an increase in one rate without the other, since in the fed funds market, lenders who have access to the RRP will demand higher rates, but borrowers may respond with reduced demand leading to a “more erratic fed funds rate.” This means an increase in the RRP rate“needs to be accompanied by an equal or larger increase to the IOER.”<blockquote>当然，一种利率的上调不可能没有另一种利率，因为在联邦基金市场上，可以获得建议零售价的贷款人会要求更高的利率，但借款人可能会减少需求，导致 “联邦基金利率更加不稳定”。这意味着建议零售价率的增加“IOER 需要同等或更大的增长”。</blockquote> Zeng conveniently summarizes the costs and benefits of an administered rate tweak in the table below:<blockquote>Zeng 在下表中方便地总结了管理费率调整的成本和收益：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7986a90f98f09803f58aab1f142833b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\">On the other end of the spectrum are Jefferies economists Thomas Simons and Aneta Markowska who pointed to recent rise in yields at Treasury bill auctions in anticipation of potential Federal Reserve adjustments to its adminstered rates, but according to the duo, \"the rise could compel the central bank to stay put.\" (earlier this week, the Treasury sold 3-month bills at 0.025% and 6-month bills at 0.04%, which were both the highest stopout yields since April 19).<blockquote>另一端是杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯 (Thomas Simons) 和阿内塔·马尔科夫斯卡 (Aneta Markowska)，他们指出，由于预期美联储可能会调整其管理利率，最近国库券拍卖收益率有所上升，但两人表示，“收益率上升可能会迫使央行按兵不动。”（本周早些时候，财政部以0.025%的价格出售3个月期国债，以0.04%的价格出售6个月期国债，这两者都是自4月19日以来的最高止损收益率）。</blockquote> Simons and Markowska explain the reflexive paradox as follows: \"concerns about an IOER hike are preventing yields from falling any further, despite the huge amount of cash looking for a home in the front-end.\" As a result, \"perversely, this concern may actually prevent an IOER hike, should yields continue to hover at these levels.”<blockquote>Simons 和 Markowska 对这种反身悖论的解释如下：“尽管大量现金在前端寻找归宿，但对 IOER 加息的担忧正在阻止收益率进一步下降。”因此，“反常的是，如果收益率继续徘徊在这些水平，这种担忧实际上可能会阻止进一步加息。”</blockquote> Another paradox: the two conclude that \"it is hard to see the Fed judging that there is ‘undue pressure’ on the front-end even\" even as the Fed reverse repo is expected to rise above $500 billion today.<blockquote>另一个悖论：两人的结论是，“即使美联储逆回购规模预计今天将超过 5000 亿美元，也很难看到美联储判断前端存在‘不适当的压力’”。</blockquote> So what does the market think? Well, according to Curvature's repo guru Scott Skyrm, as of this moment the market does not appear to be expecting an IOER hike by the Fed next week, meaning that consensus expected Powell &amp; Co. to do nothing to ease the record liquidity parked at the Fed.<blockquote>那么市场怎么看呢？嗯，根据 Curvature 的回购大师 Scott Skyrm 的说法，截至目前，市场似乎预计美联储下周不会加息，这意味着共识预计鲍威尔公司不会采取任何措施来缓解美联储创纪录的流动性。</blockquote> As the Curvature strategist wrote in a Tuesday note, \"the market is pricing two things from the Fed. First, it's pricing the first tightening in 2023 - according to the fed funds futures contracts [graph upper right]. Too far out to even guess the month! Second, the market is pricing the GC/fed funds spread to gradually narrow over the next year. Whereas GC is averaging between 5 and 6 basis points below fed funds now, it's expected to trade flat to fed funds within a year.\"<blockquote>正如 Curvature 策略师在周二的一份报告中所写，“市场正在对美联储的两件事进行定价。首先，它正在对 2023 年的首次紧缩政策进行定价——根据联邦基金期货合约[右上图]。甚至无法猜测这个月!其次，市场正在对 GC/联邦基金利差进行定价，将在未来一年逐渐缩小。尽管 GC 目前平均比联邦基金低 5 至 6 个基点，但预计一年内其交易价格将与联邦基金持平。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c7e46d0816b34f2291c95dcffee4c9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"337\">As Skyrm concludes, \"there are only two possible Fed \"technical adjustments\" that can raise Repo rates: QE tapering and an RRP rate increase.An increase in the IOER would raise both fed funds and Repo GC, so we could say the market is NOT pricing an IOER increase.\"<blockquote>正如Skyrm总结的那样，“美联储只有两种可能的‘技术性调整’可以提高回购利率：量化宽松缩减和RRP利率上调。IOER 的增加将筹集联邦基金和回购 GC，因此我们可以说市场没有为 IOER 的增加定价。\"</blockquote> One final reason why the Fed is almost guaranteed to do nothing to administered rates and allow the liquidity glut to keep rising is that as the Fed's new whisperer at the WSJ, Michael Darby wrote yesterday \"Fed Is Fine With Reverse Repos Nearing Half a Trillion\" in which he wrote:<blockquote>美联储几乎肯定不会对管理利率采取任何行动并允许流动性过剩继续上升的最后一个原因是，正如美联储在《华尔街日报》的新耳语者迈克尔·达比昨天写道的那样，“美联储对近五万亿的逆回购没有意见”他在其中写道：</blockquote> Many market participants have looked at the reverse repo activity with some unease. Financial firms have been willing to take the zero percent the Fed offers them through the facility in large part because there are few other short-term investments available, and in some cases, these private market investments actually cost money to invest in. That makes the Fed’s zero percent repo rate attractive on a relative basis.“The system is working exactly as designed,” New York Fed President John Williams said in a video interview on Yahoo Finance last Thursday. The reverse repo facility, he added, is “working really well and the fact that funds are flowing between the banking system and our overnight reverse repos, this is kind of how we would expect that to happen” given the level of money coursing through short-term markets.The growing use of the reverse repo facility follows Lorie Logan, who manages the Fed’s massive $7.9 trillion holdings of cash and securities, having said recently that the central bank would rely on it more and expand the number of firms that could access it. The timing of that shift lined up with the wall of cash that started flowing to the Fed.What is happening at the reverse repo facility doesn’t have much of a broader economic impact. Meanwhile, central bankers have become confident enough in the general health of financial markets to debate pulling back on their $120 billion a month in bond buying stimulus. But as confident as the NY Fed's career academic head, Williams, is, someexpertmarket participants are anxious. “That amount of cash flowing into the Fed is not healthy for the repo market,” said the abovementioned Scott Skyrm; He thinks the Fed needs to scale back its bond purchases, which he deemed the “most obvious and most effective way to bring cash back into the market” and out of the Fed’s balance sheet.<blockquote>许多市场参与者对逆回购活动感到有些不安。金融公司一直愿意接受美联储通过该机制向他们提供的零利率，在很大程度上是因为几乎没有其他短期投资可用，而且在某些情况下，这些私人市场投资实际上需要资金进行投资。这使得美联储的零回购利率在相对基础上具有吸引力。“纽约联储主席约翰-威廉姆斯（John Williams）上周四在接受雅虎财经视频采访时说：”该系统完全按照设计运行。他补充说，逆回购工具 “运作得非常好，而且鉴于短期市场的资金水平，资金正在银行系统和我们的隔夜逆回购之间流动，这也是我们预计会发生的情况”。管理着美联储7.9万亿美元巨额现金和证券的洛里-洛根（Lorie Logan）最近表示，美联储将更多地依赖逆回购工具，并扩大可以使用逆回购工具的公司数量。这一转变的时机与开始流入美联储的现金墙相吻合。逆回购机制发生的事情并没有产生更广泛的经济影响。与此同时，央行行长们对金融市场的总体健康状况有了足够的信心，他们正在讨论撤回每月 1200 亿美元的债券购买刺激计划。但与纽约联储职业学术主管威廉姆斯一样有信心，一些人专家市场参与者焦虑不安。“上述斯科特-斯凯姆（Scott Skyrm）说：”流入美联储的大量现金对回购市场来说是不健康的；他认为美联储需要缩减债券购买规模，他认为这是 “将现金带回市场和美联储资产负债表的最明显、最有效的方法”。</blockquote> Alas, it now appears that won't happen. And so, with the Fed facility set to keep rising, the question is will we hit $1 trillion in inert liquidity at the Fed before the Fed does agree that someone is wrong, or will an amount of cash greater than the market cap of bitcoin and ethereum remain frozen inside some Fed server...<blockquote>唉，现在看来这不会发生了。因此，随着美联储的便利措施将继续增加，问题是，在美联储同意有人错了之前，我们是否会在美联储达到1万亿美元的惰性流动性，或者超过比特币和以太币市值的现金是否会被冻结在某个美联储服务器中……</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With Fed's Reverse Repo Hitting Half A Trillion, Wall Street Scrambles To Figure Out What Comes Next<blockquote>随着美联储逆回购规模达到 5000 万亿美元，华尔街争先恐后地弄清楚下一步会发生什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith Fed's Reverse Repo Hitting Half A Trillion, Wall Street Scrambles To Figure Out What Comes Next<blockquote>随着美联储逆回购规模达到 5000 万亿美元，华尔街争先恐后地弄清楚下一步会发生什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-06-09 23:55\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWith usage of the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility again hitting a new record high on Tuesday, rising to an all-time high of $497.4 billion...<blockquote>周二，美联储隔夜逆回购工具的使用量再次创下历史新高，升至4974亿美元的历史新高……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b9d2bb6af82c6f76849da52e9583a94\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"259\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... rates traders are trying to decide if the Fed will tweak the rate on either the IOER (Interest on Excess Reserves) or the Reverse Repo Facility, collectively the Fed's \"administered rates\" in order to ease the liquidity congestion that has parked half a trillion dollars at the Fed where it is sitting inert, doing nothing.<blockquote>...利率交易员正试图决定美联储是否会调整 IOER（超额准备金利息）或逆回购工具（统称为美联储的“管理利率”）的利率，以缓解流动性拥堵，这种拥堵已导致美联储 5 万亿美元无所事事。</blockquote> One strategist who believes there is a \"small chance\" the Fed will adjust its IOER/RRP rate is Deutsche Bank's Steven Zeng, who also cited concern about the quarter-end balance sheet squeeze, which is less than the futures market is currently pricing.<blockquote>一位认为美联储调整IOER/RRP利率的策略师是德意志银行的Steven Zeng，他还提到了对季度末资产负债表紧缩的担忧，这低于期货市场目前的定价。</blockquote> As a reminder, the Fed’s ongoing $120BN in monthly QE and Treasury’s continued drawdown of its cash balance, create permanent reserves that are sitting on bank balance sheets.<blockquote>需要提醒的是，美联储每月持续进行 1200 亿美元的量化宽松政策，以及财政部持续缩减现金余额，都造成了银行资产负债表上的永久储备。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e284a2218c963fffabe80f6e92118f5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"342\"><blockquote></blockquote> At the same time, demand for deposits adds to the bloat and forces banks to supply these liabilities and hold lower-yielding assets.<blockquote>与此同时，对存款的需求加剧了膨胀，迫使银行提供这些负债并持有收益率较低的资产。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08c9dd332a2a6bf7d3ef51328649fc99\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"346\"><blockquote></blockquote> This puts downward pressure on banks’ supplementary leverage ratios,so now institutions must either raise capital or reduce loans. In this context, the Fed’s RRP acts as a “release valve” for deposits to leave banks’ balance sheets via inflows into money funds, which are then deposited at the facility.<blockquote>这给银行的补充杠杆率带来了下行压力、因此，现在机构必须要么筹集资金，要么减少贷款.在这种情况下，美联储的 RRP 就像一个 “释放阀”，让存款通过流入货币基金离开银行的资产负债表，然后存入银行的设施。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141d0979a36d1c83edb097f1181ee6eb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\"><blockquote></blockquote> According to Zeng, and as we have explained previously, the main merit of raising the RRP rate is to make money funds a “more attractive option to bank deposits,” which can allow institutions to push out more deposits and better manage their balance-sheet size until a “more permanent change to bank capital rules is made.”<blockquote>曾先生认为，正如我们之前所解释的，提高RRP利率的主要好处是使货币基金成为 “对银行存款更具吸引力的选择”，这可以让机构推出更多存款，更好地管理其资产负债表规模，直到 “对银行资本规则进行更永久性的改变”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db701c691b65734c79e446994ff9334f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"349\"><blockquote></blockquote> Currently, money-market yields are low and their margins are squeezed,so a boost to the RRP rate would make money funds a “more attractive option than bank deposits,” allowing more cash to leave the banking sector.Separately, JPMorgan writes that most money-market funds have not reached their counterparty limits at the Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility so they may not have to adjust their thresholds at the moment.<blockquote>目前，货币市场收益率较低，利润率受到挤压，因此，提高建议零售价利率将使货币基金成为 “比银行存款更具吸引力的选择”，从而使更多现金离开银行业。另外，摩根大通写道，大多数货币市场基金尚未达到美联储隔夜逆回购协议工具的交易对手限额，因此它们目前可能无需调整门槛。</blockquote> Of course, one can't have an increase in one rate without the other, since in the fed funds market, lenders who have access to the RRP will demand higher rates, but borrowers may respond with reduced demand leading to a “more erratic fed funds rate.” This means an increase in the RRP rate“needs to be accompanied by an equal or larger increase to the IOER.”<blockquote>当然，一种利率的上调不可能没有另一种利率，因为在联邦基金市场上，可以获得建议零售价的贷款人会要求更高的利率，但借款人可能会减少需求，导致 “联邦基金利率更加不稳定”。这意味着建议零售价率的增加“IOER 需要同等或更大的增长”。</blockquote> Zeng conveniently summarizes the costs and benefits of an administered rate tweak in the table below:<blockquote>Zeng 在下表中方便地总结了管理费率调整的成本和收益：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7986a90f98f09803f58aab1f142833b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\">On the other end of the spectrum are Jefferies economists Thomas Simons and Aneta Markowska who pointed to recent rise in yields at Treasury bill auctions in anticipation of potential Federal Reserve adjustments to its adminstered rates, but according to the duo, \"the rise could compel the central bank to stay put.\" (earlier this week, the Treasury sold 3-month bills at 0.025% and 6-month bills at 0.04%, which were both the highest stopout yields since April 19).<blockquote>另一端是杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯 (Thomas Simons) 和阿内塔·马尔科夫斯卡 (Aneta Markowska)，他们指出，由于预期美联储可能会调整其管理利率，最近国库券拍卖收益率有所上升，但两人表示，“收益率上升可能会迫使央行按兵不动。”（本周早些时候，财政部以0.025%的价格出售3个月期国债，以0.04%的价格出售6个月期国债，这两者都是自4月19日以来的最高止损收益率）。</blockquote> Simons and Markowska explain the reflexive paradox as follows: \"concerns about an IOER hike are preventing yields from falling any further, despite the huge amount of cash looking for a home in the front-end.\" As a result, \"perversely, this concern may actually prevent an IOER hike, should yields continue to hover at these levels.”<blockquote>Simons 和 Markowska 对这种反身悖论的解释如下：“尽管大量现金在前端寻找归宿，但对 IOER 加息的担忧正在阻止收益率进一步下降。”因此，“反常的是，如果收益率继续徘徊在这些水平，这种担忧实际上可能会阻止进一步加息。”</blockquote> Another paradox: the two conclude that \"it is hard to see the Fed judging that there is ‘undue pressure’ on the front-end even\" even as the Fed reverse repo is expected to rise above $500 billion today.<blockquote>另一个悖论：两人的结论是，“即使美联储逆回购规模预计今天将超过 5000 亿美元，也很难看到美联储判断前端存在‘不适当的压力’”。</blockquote> So what does the market think? Well, according to Curvature's repo guru Scott Skyrm, as of this moment the market does not appear to be expecting an IOER hike by the Fed next week, meaning that consensus expected Powell &amp; Co. to do nothing to ease the record liquidity parked at the Fed.<blockquote>那么市场怎么看呢？嗯，根据 Curvature 的回购大师 Scott Skyrm 的说法，截至目前，市场似乎预计美联储下周不会加息，这意味着共识预计鲍威尔公司不会采取任何措施来缓解美联储创纪录的流动性。</blockquote> As the Curvature strategist wrote in a Tuesday note, \"the market is pricing two things from the Fed. First, it's pricing the first tightening in 2023 - according to the fed funds futures contracts [graph upper right]. Too far out to even guess the month! Second, the market is pricing the GC/fed funds spread to gradually narrow over the next year. Whereas GC is averaging between 5 and 6 basis points below fed funds now, it's expected to trade flat to fed funds within a year.\"<blockquote>正如 Curvature 策略师在周二的一份报告中所写，“市场正在对美联储的两件事进行定价。首先，它正在对 2023 年的首次紧缩政策进行定价——根据联邦基金期货合约[右上图]。甚至无法猜测这个月!其次，市场正在对 GC/联邦基金利差进行定价，将在未来一年逐渐缩小。尽管 GC 目前平均比联邦基金低 5 至 6 个基点，但预计一年内其交易价格将与联邦基金持平。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c7e46d0816b34f2291c95dcffee4c9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"337\">As Skyrm concludes, \"there are only two possible Fed \"technical adjustments\" that can raise Repo rates: QE tapering and an RRP rate increase.An increase in the IOER would raise both fed funds and Repo GC, so we could say the market is NOT pricing an IOER increase.\"<blockquote>正如Skyrm总结的那样，“美联储只有两种可能的‘技术性调整’可以提高回购利率：量化宽松缩减和RRP利率上调。IOER 的增加将筹集联邦基金和回购 GC，因此我们可以说市场没有为 IOER 的增加定价。\"</blockquote> One final reason why the Fed is almost guaranteed to do nothing to administered rates and allow the liquidity glut to keep rising is that as the Fed's new whisperer at the WSJ, Michael Darby wrote yesterday \"Fed Is Fine With Reverse Repos Nearing Half a Trillion\" in which he wrote:<blockquote>美联储几乎肯定不会对管理利率采取任何行动并允许流动性过剩继续上升的最后一个原因是，正如美联储在《华尔街日报》的新耳语者迈克尔·达比昨天写道的那样，“美联储对近五万亿的逆回购没有意见”他在其中写道：</blockquote> Many market participants have looked at the reverse repo activity with some unease. Financial firms have been willing to take the zero percent the Fed offers them through the facility in large part because there are few other short-term investments available, and in some cases, these private market investments actually cost money to invest in. That makes the Fed’s zero percent repo rate attractive on a relative basis.“The system is working exactly as designed,” New York Fed President John Williams said in a video interview on Yahoo Finance last Thursday. The reverse repo facility, he added, is “working really well and the fact that funds are flowing between the banking system and our overnight reverse repos, this is kind of how we would expect that to happen” given the level of money coursing through short-term markets.The growing use of the reverse repo facility follows Lorie Logan, who manages the Fed’s massive $7.9 trillion holdings of cash and securities, having said recently that the central bank would rely on it more and expand the number of firms that could access it. The timing of that shift lined up with the wall of cash that started flowing to the Fed.What is happening at the reverse repo facility doesn’t have much of a broader economic impact. Meanwhile, central bankers have become confident enough in the general health of financial markets to debate pulling back on their $120 billion a month in bond buying stimulus. But as confident as the NY Fed's career academic head, Williams, is, someexpertmarket participants are anxious. “That amount of cash flowing into the Fed is not healthy for the repo market,” said the abovementioned Scott Skyrm; He thinks the Fed needs to scale back its bond purchases, which he deemed the “most obvious and most effective way to bring cash back into the market” and out of the Fed’s balance sheet.<blockquote>许多市场参与者对逆回购活动感到有些不安。金融公司一直愿意接受美联储通过该机制向他们提供的零利率，在很大程度上是因为几乎没有其他短期投资可用，而且在某些情况下，这些私人市场投资实际上需要资金进行投资。这使得美联储的零回购利率在相对基础上具有吸引力。“纽约联储主席约翰-威廉姆斯（John Williams）上周四在接受雅虎财经视频采访时说：”该系统完全按照设计运行。他补充说，逆回购工具 “运作得非常好，而且鉴于短期市场的资金水平，资金正在银行系统和我们的隔夜逆回购之间流动，这也是我们预计会发生的情况”。管理着美联储7.9万亿美元巨额现金和证券的洛里-洛根（Lorie Logan）最近表示，美联储将更多地依赖逆回购工具，并扩大可以使用逆回购工具的公司数量。这一转变的时机与开始流入美联储的现金墙相吻合。逆回购机制发生的事情并没有产生更广泛的经济影响。与此同时，央行行长们对金融市场的总体健康状况有了足够的信心，他们正在讨论撤回每月 1200 亿美元的债券购买刺激计划。但与纽约联储职业学术主管威廉姆斯一样有信心，一些人专家市场参与者焦虑不安。“上述斯科特-斯凯姆（Scott Skyrm）说：”流入美联储的大量现金对回购市场来说是不健康的；他认为美联储需要缩减债券购买规模，他认为这是 “将现金带回市场和美联储资产负债表的最明显、最有效的方法”。</blockquote> Alas, it now appears that won't happen. And so, with the Fed facility set to keep rising, the question is will we hit $1 trillion in inert liquidity at the Fed before the Fed does agree that someone is wrong, or will an amount of cash greater than the market cap of bitcoin and ethereum remain frozen inside some Fed server...<blockquote>唉，现在看来这不会发生了。因此，随着美联储的便利措施将继续增加，问题是，在美联储同意有人错了之前，我们是否会在美联储达到1万亿美元的惰性流动性，或者超过比特币和以太币市值的现金是否会被冻结在某个美联储服务器中……</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-reverse-repo-hitting-half-trillion-wall-street-scrambles-figure-out-what-comes-next?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-reverse-repo-hitting-half-trillion-wall-street-scrambles-figure-out-what-comes-next?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135487602","content_text":"With usage of the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility again hitting a new record high on Tuesday, rising to an all-time high of $497.4 billion...\n\n... rates traders are trying to decide if the Fed will tweak the rate on either the IOER (Interest on Excess Reserves) or the Reverse Repo Facility, collectively the Fed's \"administered rates\" in order to ease the liquidity congestion that has parked half a trillion dollars at the Fed where it is sitting inert, doing nothing.\nOne strategist who believes there is a \"small chance\" the Fed will adjust its IOER/RRP rate is Deutsche Bank's Steven Zeng, who also cited concern about the quarter-end balance sheet squeeze, which is less than the futures market is currently pricing.\nAs a reminder, the Fed’s ongoing $120BN in monthly QE and Treasury’s continued drawdown of its cash balance, create permanent reserves that are sitting on bank balance sheets.\n\nAt the same time, demand for deposits adds to the bloat and forces banks to supply these liabilities and hold lower-yielding assets.\n\nThis puts downward pressure on banks’ supplementary leverage ratios,so now institutions must either raise capital or reduce loans. In this context, the Fed’s RRP acts as a “release valve” for deposits to leave banks’ balance sheets via inflows into money funds, which are then deposited at the facility.\n\nAccording to Zeng, and as we have explained previously, the main merit of raising the RRP rate is to make money funds a “more attractive option to bank deposits,” which can allow institutions to push out more deposits and better manage their balance-sheet size until a “more permanent change to bank capital rules is made.”\n\nCurrently, money-market yields are low and their margins are squeezed,so a boost to the RRP rate would make money funds a “more attractive option than bank deposits,” allowing more cash to leave the banking sector.Separately, JPMorgan writes that most money-market funds have not reached their counterparty limits at the Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility so they may not have to adjust their thresholds at the moment.\nOf course, one can't have an increase in one rate without the other, since in the fed funds market, lenders who have access to the RRP will demand higher rates, but borrowers may respond with reduced demand leading to a “more erratic fed funds rate.” This means an increase in the RRP rate“needs to be accompanied by an equal or larger increase to the IOER.”\nZeng conveniently summarizes the costs and benefits of an administered rate tweak in the table below:\nOn the other end of the spectrum are Jefferies economists Thomas Simons and Aneta Markowska who pointed to recent rise in yields at Treasury bill auctions in anticipation of potential Federal Reserve adjustments to its adminstered rates, but according to the duo, \"the rise could compel the central bank to stay put.\" (earlier this week, the Treasury sold 3-month bills at 0.025% and 6-month bills at 0.04%, which were both the highest stopout yields since April 19).\nSimons and Markowska explain the reflexive paradox as follows: \"concerns about an IOER hike are preventing yields from falling any further, despite the huge amount of cash looking for a home in the front-end.\" As a result, \"perversely, this concern may actually prevent an IOER hike, should yields continue to hover at these levels.”\nAnother paradox: the two conclude that \"it is hard to see the Fed judging that there is ‘undue pressure’ on the front-end even\" even as the Fed reverse repo is expected to rise above $500 billion today.\nSo what does the market think? Well, according to Curvature's repo guru Scott Skyrm, as of this moment the market does not appear to be expecting an IOER hike by the Fed next week, meaning that consensus expected Powell & Co. to do nothing to ease the record liquidity parked at the Fed.\nAs the Curvature strategist wrote in a Tuesday note, \"the market is pricing two things from the Fed. First, it's pricing the first tightening in 2023 - according to the fed funds futures contracts [graph upper right]. Too far out to even guess the month! Second, the market is pricing the GC/fed funds spread to gradually narrow over the next year. Whereas GC is averaging between 5 and 6 basis points below fed funds now, it's expected to trade flat to fed funds within a year.\"\nAs Skyrm concludes, \"there are only two possible Fed \"technical adjustments\" that can raise Repo rates: QE tapering and an RRP rate increase.An increase in the IOER would raise both fed funds and Repo GC, so we could say the market is NOT pricing an IOER increase.\"\nOne final reason why the Fed is almost guaranteed to do nothing to administered rates and allow the liquidity glut to keep rising is that as the Fed's new whisperer at the WSJ, Michael Darby wrote yesterday \"Fed Is Fine With Reverse Repos Nearing Half a Trillion\" in which he wrote:\n\n Many market participants have looked at the reverse repo activity with some unease. Financial firms have been willing to take the zero percent the Fed offers them through the facility in large part because there are few other short-term investments available, and in some cases, these private market investments actually cost money to invest in. That makes the Fed’s zero percent repo rate attractive on a relative basis.“The system is working exactly as designed,” New York Fed President John Williams said in a video interview on Yahoo Finance last Thursday. The reverse repo facility, he added, is “working really well and the fact that funds are flowing between the banking system and our overnight reverse repos, this is kind of how we would expect that to happen” given the level of money coursing through short-term markets.The growing use of the reverse repo facility follows Lorie Logan, who manages the Fed’s massive $7.9 trillion holdings of cash and securities, having said recently that the central bank would rely on it more and expand the number of firms that could access it. The timing of that shift lined up with the wall of cash that started flowing to the Fed.What is happening at the reverse repo facility doesn’t have much of a broader economic impact. Meanwhile, central bankers have become confident enough in the general health of financial markets to debate pulling back on their $120 billion a month in bond buying stimulus.\n\nBut as confident as the NY Fed's career academic head, Williams, is, someexpertmarket participants are anxious. “That amount of cash flowing into the Fed is not healthy for the repo market,” said the abovementioned Scott Skyrm; He thinks the Fed needs to scale back its bond purchases, which he deemed the “most obvious and most effective way to bring cash back into the market” and out of the Fed’s balance sheet.\nAlas, it now appears that won't happen. And so, with the Fed facility set to keep rising, the question is will we hit $1 trillion in inert liquidity at the Fed before the Fed does agree that someone is wrong, or will an amount of cash greater than the market cap of bitcoin and ethereum remain frozen inside some Fed server...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":480,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/189676585"}