Until July_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-06-11

Until July

How Much Longer Will Alibaba Stay Cheap?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还能保持便宜多久？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":188985061,"tweetId":"188985061","gmtCreate":1623419455153,"gmtModify":1634033453207,"author":{"id":3581666175913688,"idStr":"3581666175913688","authorId":3581666175913688,"authorIdStr":"3581666175913688","name":"happyfarmer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Until July</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Until July</body></html>","text":"Until July","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188985061","repostId":1180091968,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1180091968","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623403203,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180091968?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 17:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Much Longer Will Alibaba Stay Cheap?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还能保持便宜多久？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180091968","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDown over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Down over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in the markets.</li> <li>Alibaba is a strong business with accelerating free cash flow generation and a clean balance sheet. The company has deep pockets to continue growing.</li> <li>The valuation that shares trade at is compressed, but seems poised to rebound. Fundamentals eventually steer the share price.</li> </ul> E-commerce has been a powerful investing theme throughout the pandemic. While many stocks that sell over the internet have been thriving, Chinese conglomerate Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has been a notable laggard. Shares of Alibaba are in the red over the past year, while the S&amp;P 500 has ripped higher, gaining 32%.<blockquote><ul><li>在过去一年的下跌中，阿里巴巴-SW的股价没有参与市场的普遍上涨。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一家实力雄厚的企业，拥有加速自由现金流生成和干净的资产负债表。该公司拥有雄厚的财力来继续增长。</li><li>股票交易估值被压缩，但似乎有望反弹。基本面最终会引导股价。</li></ul>在整个疫情，电子商务一直是一个强大的投资主题。虽然许多通过互联网销售的股票一直在蓬勃发展，但中国企业集团阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司（BABA）一直是一个明显的落后者。阿里巴巴-SW股价在过去一年中一直处于亏损状态，而标普500股价则大幅上涨，上涨了 32%。</blockquote> Alibaba has been caught in some controversy surrounding thefailed IPOof Ant Group and its founderJack Ma. While the market has focused on these distractions, the actual underlying business of Alibaba is performing at a high level. With strong fundamentals and rapidly growing free cash flow, it's only a matter of time before the market begins to focus on what matters...the business. We will outline our investment thesis below.<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW陷入了围绕蚂蚁集团及其创始人马云首次公开募股失败的争议。虽然市场关注这些干扰因素，但阿里巴巴-SW的实际基础业务表现良好。凭借强劲的基本面和快速增长的自由现金流，市场开始关注重要的事情只是时间问题……业务。我们将在下面概述我们的投资论点。</blockquote> Free Cash Flow Growth Is Stellar<blockquote>自由现金流增长强劲</blockquote> Alibaba is a frequently covered business on Seeking Alpha, so I won't rehash the basics about the business or dive into the political controversy that has plagued the stock. Instead, I want to focus on the financial inflection point that Alibaba has recently hit.<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW是 Seeking Alpha 上经常报道的业务，因此我不会重复有关该业务的基础知识，也不会深入探讨困扰该股的政治争议。相反，我想重点关注阿里巴巴-SW最近遇到的金融拐点。</blockquote> The company ended its fiscal year at the end of March. What we see is a diversified business with several growing segments that align with macroeconomic trends.<blockquote>该公司于三月底结束了财年。我们看到的是一个多元化的业务，有几个符合宏观经济趋势的增长部门。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/862988aec2c33c72dc1786de483f952a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Alibaba Group Holding Limited<blockquote>资料来源：阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司</blockquote> The largest revenue contributor, of course, is the company's retail operations. While its commerce segment continues to narrate revenue growth (total core commerce grew 2020 revenues 42% versus company revenues growing 41%), some smaller segments are showing strong growth.<blockquote>当然，最大的收入贡献者是公司的零售业务。虽然其商业部门继续讲述收入增长（2020 年核心商务总收入增长 42%，而公司收入增长 41%），但一些较小的部门正在显示出强劲的增长。</blockquote> For example, Alibaba's cloud computing operations grew 50% in 2020, and its new retail and direct sales businesses grew 94% year-over-year. What is most promising is that Alibaba is accelerating its free cash flow growth in recent years. The company's $26.35 billion in 2021 FCF is a 29% year-over-year jump from 2020. Alibaba grew FCF 25% from 2019 to 2020.<blockquote>例如，阿里巴巴的云计算业务在2020年增长了50%，新零售和直销业务同比增长了94%。最有希望的是，阿里巴巴-SW近年来正在加速自由现金流增长。该公司 2021 年自由现金流为 263.5 亿美元，较 2020 年同比增长 29%。从2019年到2020年，阿里巴巴-SW的自由现金流增长了25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba9d4b224eedbd99d8d22f0a2092b204\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"98\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Alibaba Holding Group Limited<blockquote>资料来源：阿里巴巴-SW控股集团有限公司</blockquote> With $72 billion in cash on hand as of March 31st and the business generating more than $26 billion in free cash flow, Alibaba has deep pockets to develop its growing business segments and seek out opportunities to create new growth with M&amp;A or other developments.<blockquote>截至 3 月 31 日，阿里巴巴-SW手头拥有 720 亿美元现金，该业务产生的自由现金流超过 260 亿美元，因此拥有雄厚的财力来发展其不断增长的业务部门，并寻找机会通过并购或其他发展创造新的增长。</blockquote> How Long Can Alibaba Stay \"Cheap\"?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还能“便宜”多久？</blockquote> It's hard to understand just how beaten down Alibaba's stock is until you look at things from a free cash flow perspective. Alibaba is currently trading with an FCF yield approaching 6%. By comparison, the next highest FCF yield is Amazon (AMZN), with a yield of just 1.3%.<blockquote>除非你从自由现金流的角度来看，否则很难理解阿里巴巴的股价有多下跌。阿里巴巴-SW目前的 FCF 收益率接近 6%。相比之下，FCF收益率第二高的是亚马逊（AMZN），收益率仅为1.3%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3423f615c0dc856b040442e4ff17b78f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: YCharts<blockquote>资料来源：YCharts</blockquote> This is a tremendous discount to Alibaba's peer group, despite the company accelerating FCF growth and having a ton of cash on hand. And because Alibaba is a healthy and growing company, the stock is poised to become even more attractively valued.<blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴正在加速自由现金流增长并手头拥有大量现金，但这与阿里巴巴的同行群体相比是一个巨大的折扣。由于阿里巴巴-SW是一家健康且不断成长的公司，该股的估值将变得更具吸引力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d76517c900c76b94c5bd4aaf02ec91a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> The company is estimated to continue growing revenues at a swift clip, approaching $210 billion in annual revenue over the next three years. If we apply the company's 24% conversion rate of revenue to FCF, that will give us 2024 FCF of $50 billion. In other words, an FCF yield of 8.6% on today's share price. This is simply something you don't often see for a company's stock growing so rapidly at such an already large size.<blockquote>预计该公司的收入将继续快速增长，未来三年年收入将接近 2100 亿美元。如果我们将公司 24% 的收入转换率应用于自由现金流，那么我们 2024 年的自由现金流将达到 500 亿美元。换句话说，按今天的股价计算，自由现金流收益率为 8.6%。对于一家公司的股票以如此大的规模增长如此迅速的情况来说，这是你通常不会看到的。</blockquote> The stock is clearly being punished for some of the drama that Alibaba has faced over the past year and some of the current tension between the United States and China. This is a risk that investors need to keep in mind, as anything can happen, and Alibaba may become collateral damage of political conflict. However, if it becomes clear to the market that the outlook is promising, Alibaba could aggressively rerate. Even if Alibaba saw its FCF yield fall to around 3%, it would imply an upside in shares of 46%. This would put Alibaba at an enterprise value of more than $800 billion, but I believe those shoes the company could certainly fill.<blockquote>该股显然因阿里巴巴-SW过去一年面临的一些戏剧性事件以及当前中美之间的一些紧张局势而受到惩罚。这是投资者需要牢记的风险，因为任何事情都可能发生，阿里巴巴-SW可能成为政治冲突的附带损害。然而，如果市场清楚地看到前景充满希望，阿里巴巴-SW可能会积极下调评级。即使阿里巴巴-SW的自由现金流收益率降至 3% 左右，这也意味着股价上涨 46%。这将使阿里巴巴-SW的企业价值超过 8000 亿美元，但我相信该公司肯定能够填补这一空白。</blockquote> Wrapping Up<blockquote>包装</blockquote> Alibaba is a fantastic business that has been caught up in some political drama. Despite its size, the company is growing rapidly, is profitable, and generates tons of free cash flow. Investors cannot ignore the political risks, but the upside is tremendous for brave and patient investors.<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW是一家出色的企业，却陷入了一些政治戏剧。尽管规模庞大，但该公司发展迅速，盈利，并产生大量自由现金流。投资者不能忽视政治风险，但对于勇敢而有耐心的投资者来说，上涨空间是巨大的。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Much Longer Will Alibaba Stay Cheap?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还能保持便宜多久？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Much Longer Will Alibaba Stay Cheap?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还能保持便宜多久？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeekingalpha2021-06-11 17:20\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Down over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in the markets.</li> <li>Alibaba is a strong business with accelerating free cash flow generation and a clean balance sheet. The company has deep pockets to continue growing.</li> <li>The valuation that shares trade at is compressed, but seems poised to rebound. Fundamentals eventually steer the share price.</li> </ul> E-commerce has been a powerful investing theme throughout the pandemic. While many stocks that sell over the internet have been thriving, Chinese conglomerate Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has been a notable laggard. Shares of Alibaba are in the red over the past year, while the S&amp;P 500 has ripped higher, gaining 32%.<blockquote><ul><li>在过去一年的下跌中，阿里巴巴-SW的股价没有参与市场的普遍上涨。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一家实力雄厚的企业，拥有加速自由现金流生成和干净的资产负债表。该公司拥有雄厚的财力来继续增长。</li><li>股票交易估值被压缩，但似乎有望反弹。基本面最终会引导股价。</li></ul>在整个疫情，电子商务一直是一个强大的投资主题。虽然许多通过互联网销售的股票一直在蓬勃发展，但中国企业集团阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司（BABA）一直是一个明显的落后者。阿里巴巴-SW股价在过去一年中一直处于亏损状态，而标普500股价则大幅上涨，上涨了 32%。</blockquote> Alibaba has been caught in some controversy surrounding thefailed IPOof Ant Group and its founderJack Ma. While the market has focused on these distractions, the actual underlying business of Alibaba is performing at a high level. With strong fundamentals and rapidly growing free cash flow, it's only a matter of time before the market begins to focus on what matters...the business. We will outline our investment thesis below.<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW陷入了围绕蚂蚁集团及其创始人马云首次公开募股失败的争议。虽然市场关注这些干扰因素，但阿里巴巴-SW的实际基础业务表现良好。凭借强劲的基本面和快速增长的自由现金流，市场开始关注重要的事情只是时间问题……业务。我们将在下面概述我们的投资论点。</blockquote> Free Cash Flow Growth Is Stellar<blockquote>自由现金流增长强劲</blockquote> Alibaba is a frequently covered business on Seeking Alpha, so I won't rehash the basics about the business or dive into the political controversy that has plagued the stock. Instead, I want to focus on the financial inflection point that Alibaba has recently hit.<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW是 Seeking Alpha 上经常报道的业务，因此我不会重复有关该业务的基础知识，也不会深入探讨困扰该股的政治争议。相反，我想重点关注阿里巴巴-SW最近遇到的金融拐点。</blockquote> The company ended its fiscal year at the end of March. What we see is a diversified business with several growing segments that align with macroeconomic trends.<blockquote>该公司于三月底结束了财年。我们看到的是一个多元化的业务，有几个符合宏观经济趋势的增长部门。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/862988aec2c33c72dc1786de483f952a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Alibaba Group Holding Limited<blockquote>资料来源：阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司</blockquote> The largest revenue contributor, of course, is the company's retail operations. While its commerce segment continues to narrate revenue growth (total core commerce grew 2020 revenues 42% versus company revenues growing 41%), some smaller segments are showing strong growth.<blockquote>当然，最大的收入贡献者是公司的零售业务。虽然其商业部门继续讲述收入增长（2020 年核心商务总收入增长 42%，而公司收入增长 41%），但一些较小的部门正在显示出强劲的增长。</blockquote> For example, Alibaba's cloud computing operations grew 50% in 2020, and its new retail and direct sales businesses grew 94% year-over-year. What is most promising is that Alibaba is accelerating its free cash flow growth in recent years. The company's $26.35 billion in 2021 FCF is a 29% year-over-year jump from 2020. Alibaba grew FCF 25% from 2019 to 2020.<blockquote>例如，阿里巴巴的云计算业务在2020年增长了50%，新零售和直销业务同比增长了94%。最有希望的是，阿里巴巴-SW近年来正在加速自由现金流增长。该公司 2021 年自由现金流为 263.5 亿美元，较 2020 年同比增长 29%。从2019年到2020年，阿里巴巴-SW的自由现金流增长了25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba9d4b224eedbd99d8d22f0a2092b204\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"98\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Alibaba Holding Group Limited<blockquote>资料来源：阿里巴巴-SW控股集团有限公司</blockquote> With $72 billion in cash on hand as of March 31st and the business generating more than $26 billion in free cash flow, Alibaba has deep pockets to develop its growing business segments and seek out opportunities to create new growth with M&amp;A or other developments.<blockquote>截至 3 月 31 日，阿里巴巴-SW手头拥有 720 亿美元现金，该业务产生的自由现金流超过 260 亿美元，因此拥有雄厚的财力来发展其不断增长的业务部门，并寻找机会通过并购或其他发展创造新的增长。</blockquote> How Long Can Alibaba Stay \"Cheap\"?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还能“便宜”多久？</blockquote> It's hard to understand just how beaten down Alibaba's stock is until you look at things from a free cash flow perspective. Alibaba is currently trading with an FCF yield approaching 6%. By comparison, the next highest FCF yield is Amazon (AMZN), with a yield of just 1.3%.<blockquote>除非你从自由现金流的角度来看，否则很难理解阿里巴巴的股价有多下跌。阿里巴巴-SW目前的 FCF 收益率接近 6%。相比之下，FCF收益率第二高的是亚马逊（AMZN），收益率仅为1.3%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3423f615c0dc856b040442e4ff17b78f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: YCharts<blockquote>资料来源：YCharts</blockquote> This is a tremendous discount to Alibaba's peer group, despite the company accelerating FCF growth and having a ton of cash on hand. And because Alibaba is a healthy and growing company, the stock is poised to become even more attractively valued.<blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴正在加速自由现金流增长并手头拥有大量现金，但这与阿里巴巴的同行群体相比是一个巨大的折扣。由于阿里巴巴-SW是一家健康且不断成长的公司，该股的估值将变得更具吸引力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d76517c900c76b94c5bd4aaf02ec91a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> The company is estimated to continue growing revenues at a swift clip, approaching $210 billion in annual revenue over the next three years. If we apply the company's 24% conversion rate of revenue to FCF, that will give us 2024 FCF of $50 billion. In other words, an FCF yield of 8.6% on today's share price. This is simply something you don't often see for a company's stock growing so rapidly at such an already large size.<blockquote>预计该公司的收入将继续快速增长，未来三年年收入将接近 2100 亿美元。如果我们将公司 24% 的收入转换率应用于自由现金流，那么我们 2024 年的自由现金流将达到 500 亿美元。换句话说，按今天的股价计算，自由现金流收益率为 8.6%。对于一家公司的股票以如此大的规模增长如此迅速的情况来说，这是你通常不会看到的。</blockquote> The stock is clearly being punished for some of the drama that Alibaba has faced over the past year and some of the current tension between the United States and China. This is a risk that investors need to keep in mind, as anything can happen, and Alibaba may become collateral damage of political conflict. However, if it becomes clear to the market that the outlook is promising, Alibaba could aggressively rerate. Even if Alibaba saw its FCF yield fall to around 3%, it would imply an upside in shares of 46%. This would put Alibaba at an enterprise value of more than $800 billion, but I believe those shoes the company could certainly fill.<blockquote>该股显然因阿里巴巴-SW过去一年面临的一些戏剧性事件以及当前中美之间的一些紧张局势而受到惩罚。这是投资者需要牢记的风险，因为任何事情都可能发生，阿里巴巴-SW可能成为政治冲突的附带损害。然而，如果市场清楚地看到前景充满希望，阿里巴巴-SW可能会积极下调评级。即使阿里巴巴-SW的自由现金流收益率降至 3% 左右，这也意味着股价上涨 46%。这将使阿里巴巴-SW的企业价值超过 8000 亿美元，但我相信该公司肯定能够填补这一空白。</blockquote> Wrapping Up<blockquote>包装</blockquote> Alibaba is a fantastic business that has been caught up in some political drama. Despite its size, the company is growing rapidly, is profitable, and generates tons of free cash flow. Investors cannot ignore the political risks, but the upside is tremendous for brave and patient investors.<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW是一家出色的企业，却陷入了一些政治戏剧。尽管规模庞大，但该公司发展迅速，盈利，并产生大量自由现金流。投资者不能忽视政治风险，但对于勇敢而有耐心的投资者来说，上涨空间是巨大的。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434229-how-much-longer-will-alibaba-stay-cheap\">Seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434229-how-much-longer-will-alibaba-stay-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180091968","content_text":"Summary\n\nDown over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in the markets.\nAlibaba is a strong business with accelerating free cash flow generation and a clean balance sheet. The company has deep pockets to continue growing.\nThe valuation that shares trade at is compressed, but seems poised to rebound. Fundamentals eventually steer the share price.\n\nE-commerce has been a powerful investing theme throughout the pandemic. While many stocks that sell over the internet have been thriving, Chinese conglomerate Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has been a notable laggard. Shares of Alibaba are in the red over the past year, while the S&P 500 has ripped higher, gaining 32%.\nAlibaba has been caught in some controversy surrounding thefailed IPOof Ant Group and its founderJack Ma. While the market has focused on these distractions, the actual underlying business of Alibaba is performing at a high level. With strong fundamentals and rapidly growing free cash flow, it's only a matter of time before the market begins to focus on what matters...the business. We will outline our investment thesis below.\nFree Cash Flow Growth Is Stellar\nAlibaba is a frequently covered business on Seeking Alpha, so I won't rehash the basics about the business or dive into the political controversy that has plagued the stock. Instead, I want to focus on the financial inflection point that Alibaba has recently hit.\nThe company ended its fiscal year at the end of March. What we see is a diversified business with several growing segments that align with macroeconomic trends.\nsource: Alibaba Group Holding Limited\nThe largest revenue contributor, of course, is the company's retail operations. While its commerce segment continues to narrate revenue growth (total core commerce grew 2020 revenues 42% versus company revenues growing 41%), some smaller segments are showing strong growth.\nFor example, Alibaba's cloud computing operations grew 50% in 2020, and its new retail and direct sales businesses grew 94% year-over-year. What is most promising is that Alibaba is accelerating its free cash flow growth in recent years. The company's $26.35 billion in 2021 FCF is a 29% year-over-year jump from 2020. Alibaba grew FCF 25% from 2019 to 2020.\nsource: Alibaba Holding Group Limited\nWith $72 billion in cash on hand as of March 31st and the business generating more than $26 billion in free cash flow, Alibaba has deep pockets to develop its growing business segments and seek out opportunities to create new growth with M&A or other developments.\nHow Long Can Alibaba Stay \"Cheap\"?\nIt's hard to understand just how beaten down Alibaba's stock is until you look at things from a free cash flow perspective. Alibaba is currently trading with an FCF yield approaching 6%. By comparison, the next highest FCF yield is Amazon (AMZN), with a yield of just 1.3%.\nsource: YCharts\nThis is a tremendous discount to Alibaba's peer group, despite the company accelerating FCF growth and having a ton of cash on hand. And because Alibaba is a healthy and growing company, the stock is poised to become even more attractively valued.\nsource: Seeking Alpha\nThe company is estimated to continue growing revenues at a swift clip, approaching $210 billion in annual revenue over the next three years. If we apply the company's 24% conversion rate of revenue to FCF, that will give us 2024 FCF of $50 billion. In other words, an FCF yield of 8.6% on today's share price. This is simply something you don't often see for a company's stock growing so rapidly at such an already large size.\nThe stock is clearly being punished for some of the drama that Alibaba has faced over the past year and some of the current tension between the United States and China. This is a risk that investors need to keep in mind, as anything can happen, and Alibaba may become collateral damage of political conflict. However, if it becomes clear to the market that the outlook is promising, Alibaba could aggressively rerate. Even if Alibaba saw its FCF yield fall to around 3%, it would imply an upside in shares of 46%. This would put Alibaba at an enterprise value of more than $800 billion, but I believe those shoes the company could certainly fill.\nWrapping Up\nAlibaba is a fantastic business that has been caught up in some political drama. Despite its size, the company is growing rapidly, is profitable, and generates tons of free cash flow. Investors cannot ignore the political risks, but the upside is tremendous for brave and patient investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3873,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/188985061"}