leongsiak
2021-06-11
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The Fed's Sneaky Plot<blockquote>美联储的阴险阴谋</blockquote>
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[开心]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188076224","repostId":1187301815,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187301815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623415058,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187301815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 20:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed's Sneaky Plot<blockquote>美联储的阴险阴谋</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187301815","media":"Zerohedge","summary":"For the past 22 years, every time the stock market whimpered, wheezed or whined, the Federal Reserve","content":"<p>For the past 22 years, every time the stock market whimpered, wheezed or whined, the Federal Reserve rushed to soothe the spoiled crybaby.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的22年里，每当股市呜咽、喘息或发牢骚时，美联储就会赶紧安抚这个被宠坏的爱哭鬼。</blockquote></p><p> There are two consequential results of the <i>Fed as savior</i>:</p><p><blockquote>有两个重要的结果<i>美联储作为救世主</i>:</blockquote></p><p> 1. <b>The Fed has perfected </b> <b><i>moral hazard</i></b> <b>:</b>everyone from the money manager betting billions to the punters gambling their stimmy money is absolutely confident I can’t lose because the Fed will always push the market higher. What happens when participants are confident they can’t possibly lose? They make ever-riskier and ever-larger bets. The entire nation is in the grip of a moral hazard mania, all based on the confidence that the Fed will always push every market higher—always, without fail.</p><p><blockquote>1.<b>美联储已经完善</b><b><i>道德风险</i></b><b>:</b>从押注数十亿美元的资金经理到赌徒，每个人都绝对相信我不会输，因为美联储总是会推高市场。当参与者确信自己不可能输时会发生什么？他们下的赌注越来越大，越来越大。整个国家都陷入了道德风险狂热之中，这一切都是基于这样一种信心：美联储将永远推高每个市场——永远不会失败。</blockquote></p><p> 2. <b>Organic (i.e. non-manipulated) market forces have been extinguished.</b>There is now only one consequential force, the Fed. All markets are now 100% dependent on the Fed responding to every bleat from every punter who’s recklessly risky bet is about to go bad. The Fed is now the perfect union of quasi-religious savior and <i>Helicopter Parent</i>: oh dear, our little darling got high and crashed the Porsche? Quick, let’s save our precious market from any consequences!</p><p><blockquote>2.<b>有机的（即非操纵的）市场力量已经消失。</b>现在只有一股重要力量，那就是美联储。现在，所有市场都 100% 依赖于美联储对每一个赌客的每一次抱怨做出回应，这些赌客的鲁莽冒险赌注即将失败。美联储现在是准宗教救世主和<i>直升机母机</i>哦，亲爱的，我们的小宝贝嗑药了，把保时捷撞坏了？快，让我们拯救我们宝贵的市场免受任何后果!</blockquote></p><p> <b>Every day, Fed speakers take to the pulpit to spew another sermon about the Fed’s god-like power and wisdom. The true believers soak up every word: golly-gee, the Fed is better than any god — it’s guaranteeing I can get rich if I just leverage up any bet in any market!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每天，美联储发言人都会走上讲坛，再次宣讲美联储神一般的力量和智慧。真正的信徒们会吸收每一个字：天哪，美联储比任何神都强--它保证我只要在任何市场上加大赌注，就能发财!</b></blockquote></p><p> With a savior like the Fed, you don’t need a real economy or a real market - all you need is the assurance that the Fed will save every market from every consequence.</p><p><blockquote>有了美联储这样的救世主，你不需要真正的经济或真正的市场--你所需要的只是美联储将拯救每个市场免受每一个后果的保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Point of Diminishing Returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收益递减点</b></blockquote></p><p> All this hubris is jolly while it lasts, but since risk cannot be dissipated, it can only be transferred, the Fed has transferred decades of fast-rising risk to the entire system. The entire system now rests on the Fed, a dependency that raises its own risks.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些傲慢在持续的时候是令人愉快的，但由于风险无法消散，只能转移，美联储已经将几十年来快速增长的风险转移到了整个系统。整个体系现在依赖于美联储，这种依赖增加了自身的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>By imposing moral hazard and crushing consequences, the Fed has stripped the entire financial system of self-correcting mechanisms. This is a surefire recipe for systemic failure and collapse.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通过施加道德风险和毁灭性后果，美联储剥夺了整个金融体系的自我纠正机制。这是系统性失败和崩溃的万无一失的秘诀。</b></blockquote></p><p> There is no way to wean the system off its dependence on the Fed, and no way to restore organic market functions. The slightest reduction in the Fed’s spew of trillions will crash the market, because there is literally nothing holding it aloft but Fed spew — monetary and verbal.</p><p><blockquote>没有办法让这个体系摆脱对美联储的依赖，也没有办法恢复有机的市场功能。美联储数万亿美元的喷水量稍有减少，市场就会崩溃，因为除了美联储的喷水--货币和口头上--之外，没有什么能支撑市场。</blockquote></p><p> The problem with becoming 100% dependent on the Fed is any wobble will crash the system — and <i>diminishing returns</i> guarantee a wobble.</p><p><blockquote>100% 依赖美联储的问题在于，任何动摇都会使系统崩溃——而且<i>回报递减</i>保证摇摆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The system’s sensitivity to the Fed’s spew of trillions of dollars and claptrap preaching is diminishing,</b>which is why the Fed has moved from spewing hundreds of billions to trillions, and why Fed speakers who we once heard from once a month are now out in force every single day.</p><p><blockquote><b>整个系统对美联储数万亿美元的喷水和哗众取宠的说教的敏感度正在降低、</b>这就是为什么美联储从喷出数千亿美元转向数万亿美元，也是为什么我们曾经每月听到一次的美联储发言人现在每天都在生效。</blockquote></p><p> Remarkably, few anticipate any consequence from the Fed’s perfection of moral hazard and the system’s 100% dependence on the Fed’s spew even as diminishing returns gnaw away at the efficacy of the Fed’s ever more grandiose policies and pronouncements.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，很少有人预料到美联储完美的道德风险和该系统 100% 依赖美联储的吐槽会产生任何后果，即使回报率不断下降，美联储日益宏大的政策和声明的效力也在不断蚕食。</blockquote></p><p> <b>If you wanted to design a system guaranteed to collapse in a putrid heap, you’d make moral hazard ubiquitous and you’d make the system 100% dependent on a hubris-soaked faux savior.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果你想设计一个保证会在腐烂的垃圾堆中崩溃的系统，你就会让道德风险无处不在，你就会让这个系统 100% 依赖于一个傲慢自大的假救世主。</b></blockquote></p><p> Hey, that describes America’s economy and financial system perfectly. But now I want to explore something about the Fed you’ve probably never considered before…</p><p><blockquote>嘿，这完美地描述了美国的经济和金融体系。但现在我想探讨一些你可能从未考虑过的关于美联储的事情..</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Fed’s Official and Unofficial Mandates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储的官方和非官方任务</b></blockquote></p><p> There are two standard-issue narratives about the Federal Reserve’s agenda: the Fed’s official narrative is that the Fed’s mandate is to keep inflation under control while promoting full employment.</p><p><blockquote>关于美联储的议程有两种标准说法： 美联储的官方说法是，美联储的任务是在促进充分就业的同时控制通胀。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The unofficial mandate that’s obvious to all is to prop up assets, especially the stock market, which has become the Fed’s preferred </b><b><i>signifier of prosperity and the rightness/goodness of Fed policies.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b>所有人都清楚的非官方任务是支撑资产，尤其是已成为美联储首选的股票市场。</b><b><i>繁荣的象征和美联储政策的正确性/正确性。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> The other narrative results from “following the money”: the Fed is owned by private-sector banks, and so behind the curtain of happy-talk (full employment, blah-blah-blah), the Fed’s only real agenda is to further enrich banks and too big to fail/jail financiers — something it has managed to do with remarkable success.</p><p><blockquote>另一种说法来自 “追随金钱 ”： 美联储由私营部门银行所有，因此在高谈阔论（充分就业、诸如此类）的幕后，美联储唯一真正的议程就是进一步丰富银行和大到不能倒/监禁金融家--而美联储在这方面取得了显著的成功。</blockquote></p><p> That the Fed inflated the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble and the 2005-2008 housing bubble is undeniable, as is the Fed’s 2008-09 bailout of the global financial system and too big to fail/jail mortgage originators and a vast array of other profiteering, embezzler-scoundrels.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，美联储助长了 1999-2000 年的互联网泡沫和 2005-2008 年的房地产泡沫，美联储在 2008-09 年对全球金融体系的救助以及“大到不能倒”/监禁抵押贷款发起人和其他大量牟取暴利、挪用公款的恶棍也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) and unprecedented quantitative easing monetary stimulus have pushed the Fed balance sheet, federal debt and systemic debt to heights that heretofore would have been inconceivable.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的零利率政策（ZIRP）和前所未有的量化宽松货币刺激措施将美联储的资产负债表、联邦债务和系统性债务推向了以前难以想象的高度。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While pursuing these non-mutually-exclusive agendas — <i>we came to do good and stayed to do well</i>— the Fed has generated destabilizing extremes of wealth and income inequality, a reality that the Fed laughably denies. (There must be much mirth about this BS behind closed doors.)</p><p><blockquote>在追求这些互不排斥的议程的同时——<i>我们来是为了做好事，留下来是为了做好事</i>——美联储造成了破坏稳定的极端财富和收入不平等，而美联储可笑地否认了这一现实。（闭门造车肯定有很多欢乐。）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allow me to posit a third agenda which doesn’t negate either conventional agenda but does explain some of the Fed’s actions since 2008…</b></p><p><blockquote><b>请允许我提出第三个议程，它并不否定任何一个传统议程，但确实解释了美联储自 2008 年以来的一些行动..</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Fed’s Real Mandate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储的真正使命</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As the system unravels, the Fed’s primary imperative is to save the financial system and economy from the greed-soaked incompetence of the other players, public and private, by taking charge of critical swaths of the financial system and economy.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>随着金融体系的瓦解，美联储的首要任务是通过掌控金融体系和经济的关键领域，将金融体系和经济从其他公共和私营部门参与者贪婪无能的影响中拯救出来。</b></blockquote></p><p> After the subprime debacle almost took down the entire global financial system, the Fed (with a bit of help from Congress) essentially took over the entire $10 trillion U.S. mortgage market.</p><p><blockquote>在次贷危机几乎摧毁了整个全球金融体系后，美联储（在国会的帮助下）基本上接管了整个10万亿美元的美国抵押贷款市场。</blockquote></p><p> Private-sector lenders had figured out how to issue guaranteed-to-default mortgages and pass off the fraudulent mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to a global cast of suckers who believed America’s financial system was properly regulated. (Haha, the joke’s on you.)</p><p><blockquote>私营部门贷款机构已经想出了如何发行违约担保抵押贷款，并将欺诈性抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）转嫁给一群相信美国金融体系受到适当监管的全球傻瓜。（哈哈，笑话在你身上。）</blockquote></p><p> In response, the Fed basically nationalized the mortgage market, buying more than $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities and ensuring that virtually all mortgages in the U.S. were guaranteed or originated by federal agencies: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (after their bankruptcy as quasi-private agencies), FHA and VA.</p><p><blockquote>作为回应，美联储基本上将抵押贷款市场国有化，购买了超过 1 万亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，并确保美国几乎所有抵押贷款都由联邦机构担保或发起：房利美和房地美（准私人机构破产后）、联邦住房管理局和退伍军人管理局。</blockquote></p><p> More recently, the Fed realized the private broker-dealer banks that handle the all-important issuance of Treasury bonds could no longer be trusted.</p><p><blockquote>最近，美联储意识到处理最重要的国债发行的私人经纪自营商银行不再可信。</blockquote></p><p> As analyst Christopher Whalen explains, <b><i>“The Fed’s primary concern is not employment or inflation, but rather keeping the market for Treasury securities functioning.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如分析师克里斯托弗·惠伦解释的那样，<b><i>“美联储的首要关注点不是就业或通胀，而是保持国债市场的正常运转。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> In response, the Fed is cutting the broker-dealers out as unreliable players. The Treasury market and the U.S. dollar are the foundations of federal spending and power, and so the Fed has realized that, just as it did with the fraudulent embezzlers of the private-sector mortgage market, it has to bypass or neuter the private-sector players as threats to stability.</p><p><blockquote>作为回应，美联储正在将经纪自营商剔除为不可靠的参与者。国债市场和美元是联邦支出和权力的基础，因此美联储已经意识到，正如它对私营部门抵押贷款市场的欺诈性挪用者所做的那样，它必须绕过或压制私营部门参与者，将其视为对稳定的威胁。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Next up on the Fed’s agenda: take charge of the issuance of new money to households and cut Congress out of the loop.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储的下一个议程是：负责向家庭发行新货币，并将国会排除在外。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Money Directly From the Fed</b></p><p><blockquote><b>直接来自美联储的资金</b></blockquote></p><p> If you read up on the Fed’s plans for its own digital currency and the FedNow system, you’ll come to understand that the Fed has concluded that supporting consumption (i.e. giving money to households to enable more spending) is too important to leave in the corrupt hands of the legislative bodies (Congress) or the Treasury, which must issue debt to raise cash to distribute to households, debt that further burdens federal revenues and spending.</p><p><blockquote>如果你仔细阅读美联储对自己的数字货币和 FedNow 系统的计划，你就会明白，美联储已经得出结论，支持消费（即向家庭发放资金以增加支出）太重要了，不能把这些债务交给腐败的立法机构（国会）或财政部，因为后者必须发行债务来筹集现金以分配给家庭，而这些债务进一步加重了联邦收入和支出的负担。</blockquote></p><p> We can’t count on you, broker-dealers or Congress, so we’re taking charge, as the system is now so over-extended that any misadventure by other players could well be catastrophic. The only alternative from the Fed’s point of view is to take charge and cut the untrustworthy, self-serving incompetents out of the loop.</p><p><blockquote>我们不能指望你们、经纪人或国会，所以我们要负责，因为现在的系统已经过度扩张，其他参与者的任何意外都很可能是灾难性的。从美联储的角度来看，唯一的选择就是接管并将不值得信赖、自私自利的无能之辈剔除出去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So the Fed’s plan is to create new money out of thin air and deposit it directly in household accounts via the FedNow system.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>因此，美联储的计划是凭空创造新的货币，并通过 FedNow 系统直接存入家庭账户。</b></blockquote></p><p> The danger of this power grab is that the Fed will misjudge the situation, and that will prove catastrophic because the system has been stripped of resilience, feedback and redundancy.</p><p><blockquote>这种权力攫取的危险在于，美联储会误判形势，这将被证明是灾难性的，因为该系统已经失去了弹性、反馈和冗余。</blockquote></p><p> I suspect the Fed sees itself as trapped by the incompetence and greed of the other players and by its own policy extremes that were little more than expedient “saves” of a system that is unraveling due to its fragility and brittleness.</p><p><blockquote>我怀疑美联储认为自己被其他参与者的无能和贪婪以及自己的极端政策所困，这些政策只不过是对一个因脆弱性而正在瓦解的体系的权宜之计 “拯救”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The groundwork is being laid for the Fed’s digital currency and direct deposits to households via FedNow accounts.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储正在为数字货币和通过 FedNow 账户向家庭直接存款奠定基础。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's Sneaky Plot<blockquote>美联储的阴险阴谋</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 20:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For the past 22 years, every time the stock market whimpered, wheezed or whined, the Federal Reserve rushed to soothe the spoiled crybaby.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的22年里，每当股市呜咽、喘息或发牢骚时，美联储就会赶紧安抚这个被宠坏的爱哭鬼。</blockquote></p><p> There are two consequential results of the <i>Fed as savior</i>:</p><p><blockquote>有两个重要的结果<i>美联储作为救世主</i>:</blockquote></p><p> 1. <b>The Fed has perfected </b> <b><i>moral hazard</i></b> <b>:</b>everyone from the money manager betting billions to the punters gambling their stimmy money is absolutely confident I can’t lose because the Fed will always push the market higher. What happens when participants are confident they can’t possibly lose? They make ever-riskier and ever-larger bets. The entire nation is in the grip of a moral hazard mania, all based on the confidence that the Fed will always push every market higher—always, without fail.</p><p><blockquote>1.<b>美联储已经完善</b><b><i>道德风险</i></b><b>:</b>从押注数十亿美元的资金经理到赌徒，每个人都绝对相信我不会输，因为美联储总是会推高市场。当参与者确信自己不可能输时会发生什么？他们下的赌注越来越大，越来越大。整个国家都陷入了道德风险狂热之中，这一切都是基于这样一种信心：美联储将永远推高每个市场——永远不会失败。</blockquote></p><p> 2. <b>Organic (i.e. non-manipulated) market forces have been extinguished.</b>There is now only one consequential force, the Fed. All markets are now 100% dependent on the Fed responding to every bleat from every punter who’s recklessly risky bet is about to go bad. The Fed is now the perfect union of quasi-religious savior and <i>Helicopter Parent</i>: oh dear, our little darling got high and crashed the Porsche? Quick, let’s save our precious market from any consequences!</p><p><blockquote>2.<b>有机的（即非操纵的）市场力量已经消失。</b>现在只有一股重要力量，那就是美联储。现在，所有市场都 100% 依赖于美联储对每一个赌客的每一次抱怨做出回应，这些赌客的鲁莽冒险赌注即将失败。美联储现在是准宗教救世主和<i>直升机母机</i>哦，亲爱的，我们的小宝贝嗑药了，把保时捷撞坏了？快，让我们拯救我们宝贵的市场免受任何后果!</blockquote></p><p> <b>Every day, Fed speakers take to the pulpit to spew another sermon about the Fed’s god-like power and wisdom. The true believers soak up every word: golly-gee, the Fed is better than any god — it’s guaranteeing I can get rich if I just leverage up any bet in any market!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每天，美联储发言人都会走上讲坛，再次宣讲美联储神一般的力量和智慧。真正的信徒们会吸收每一个字：天哪，美联储比任何神都强--它保证我只要在任何市场上加大赌注，就能发财!</b></blockquote></p><p> With a savior like the Fed, you don’t need a real economy or a real market - all you need is the assurance that the Fed will save every market from every consequence.</p><p><blockquote>有了美联储这样的救世主，你不需要真正的经济或真正的市场--你所需要的只是美联储将拯救每个市场免受每一个后果的保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Point of Diminishing Returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收益递减点</b></blockquote></p><p> All this hubris is jolly while it lasts, but since risk cannot be dissipated, it can only be transferred, the Fed has transferred decades of fast-rising risk to the entire system. The entire system now rests on the Fed, a dependency that raises its own risks.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些傲慢在持续的时候是令人愉快的，但由于风险无法消散，只能转移，美联储已经将几十年来快速增长的风险转移到了整个系统。整个体系现在依赖于美联储，这种依赖增加了自身的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>By imposing moral hazard and crushing consequences, the Fed has stripped the entire financial system of self-correcting mechanisms. This is a surefire recipe for systemic failure and collapse.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通过施加道德风险和毁灭性后果，美联储剥夺了整个金融体系的自我纠正机制。这是系统性失败和崩溃的万无一失的秘诀。</b></blockquote></p><p> There is no way to wean the system off its dependence on the Fed, and no way to restore organic market functions. The slightest reduction in the Fed’s spew of trillions will crash the market, because there is literally nothing holding it aloft but Fed spew — monetary and verbal.</p><p><blockquote>没有办法让这个体系摆脱对美联储的依赖，也没有办法恢复有机的市场功能。美联储数万亿美元的喷水量稍有减少，市场就会崩溃，因为除了美联储的喷水--货币和口头上--之外，没有什么能支撑市场。</blockquote></p><p> The problem with becoming 100% dependent on the Fed is any wobble will crash the system — and <i>diminishing returns</i> guarantee a wobble.</p><p><blockquote>100% 依赖美联储的问题在于，任何动摇都会使系统崩溃——而且<i>回报递减</i>保证摇摆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The system’s sensitivity to the Fed’s spew of trillions of dollars and claptrap preaching is diminishing,</b>which is why the Fed has moved from spewing hundreds of billions to trillions, and why Fed speakers who we once heard from once a month are now out in force every single day.</p><p><blockquote><b>整个系统对美联储数万亿美元的喷水和哗众取宠的说教的敏感度正在降低、</b>这就是为什么美联储从喷出数千亿美元转向数万亿美元，也是为什么我们曾经每月听到一次的美联储发言人现在每天都在生效。</blockquote></p><p> Remarkably, few anticipate any consequence from the Fed’s perfection of moral hazard and the system’s 100% dependence on the Fed’s spew even as diminishing returns gnaw away at the efficacy of the Fed’s ever more grandiose policies and pronouncements.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，很少有人预料到美联储完美的道德风险和该系统 100% 依赖美联储的吐槽会产生任何后果，即使回报率不断下降，美联储日益宏大的政策和声明的效力也在不断蚕食。</blockquote></p><p> <b>If you wanted to design a system guaranteed to collapse in a putrid heap, you’d make moral hazard ubiquitous and you’d make the system 100% dependent on a hubris-soaked faux savior.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果你想设计一个保证会在腐烂的垃圾堆中崩溃的系统，你就会让道德风险无处不在，你就会让这个系统 100% 依赖于一个傲慢自大的假救世主。</b></blockquote></p><p> Hey, that describes America’s economy and financial system perfectly. But now I want to explore something about the Fed you’ve probably never considered before…</p><p><blockquote>嘿，这完美地描述了美国的经济和金融体系。但现在我想探讨一些你可能从未考虑过的关于美联储的事情..</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Fed’s Official and Unofficial Mandates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储的官方和非官方任务</b></blockquote></p><p> There are two standard-issue narratives about the Federal Reserve’s agenda: the Fed’s official narrative is that the Fed’s mandate is to keep inflation under control while promoting full employment.</p><p><blockquote>关于美联储的议程有两种标准说法： 美联储的官方说法是，美联储的任务是在促进充分就业的同时控制通胀。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The unofficial mandate that’s obvious to all is to prop up assets, especially the stock market, which has become the Fed’s preferred </b><b><i>signifier of prosperity and the rightness/goodness of Fed policies.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b>所有人都清楚的非官方任务是支撑资产，尤其是已成为美联储首选的股票市场。</b><b><i>繁荣的象征和美联储政策的正确性/正确性。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> The other narrative results from “following the money”: the Fed is owned by private-sector banks, and so behind the curtain of happy-talk (full employment, blah-blah-blah), the Fed’s only real agenda is to further enrich banks and too big to fail/jail financiers — something it has managed to do with remarkable success.</p><p><blockquote>另一种说法来自 “追随金钱 ”： 美联储由私营部门银行所有，因此在高谈阔论（充分就业、诸如此类）的幕后，美联储唯一真正的议程就是进一步丰富银行和大到不能倒/监禁金融家--而美联储在这方面取得了显著的成功。</blockquote></p><p> That the Fed inflated the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble and the 2005-2008 housing bubble is undeniable, as is the Fed’s 2008-09 bailout of the global financial system and too big to fail/jail mortgage originators and a vast array of other profiteering, embezzler-scoundrels.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，美联储助长了 1999-2000 年的互联网泡沫和 2005-2008 年的房地产泡沫，美联储在 2008-09 年对全球金融体系的救助以及“大到不能倒”/监禁抵押贷款发起人和其他大量牟取暴利、挪用公款的恶棍也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) and unprecedented quantitative easing monetary stimulus have pushed the Fed balance sheet, federal debt and systemic debt to heights that heretofore would have been inconceivable.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的零利率政策（ZIRP）和前所未有的量化宽松货币刺激措施将美联储的资产负债表、联邦债务和系统性债务推向了以前难以想象的高度。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While pursuing these non-mutually-exclusive agendas — <i>we came to do good and stayed to do well</i>— the Fed has generated destabilizing extremes of wealth and income inequality, a reality that the Fed laughably denies. (There must be much mirth about this BS behind closed doors.)</p><p><blockquote>在追求这些互不排斥的议程的同时——<i>我们来是为了做好事，留下来是为了做好事</i>——美联储造成了破坏稳定的极端财富和收入不平等，而美联储可笑地否认了这一现实。（闭门造车肯定有很多欢乐。）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allow me to posit a third agenda which doesn’t negate either conventional agenda but does explain some of the Fed’s actions since 2008…</b></p><p><blockquote><b>请允许我提出第三个议程，它并不否定任何一个传统议程，但确实解释了美联储自 2008 年以来的一些行动..</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Fed’s Real Mandate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储的真正使命</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As the system unravels, the Fed’s primary imperative is to save the financial system and economy from the greed-soaked incompetence of the other players, public and private, by taking charge of critical swaths of the financial system and economy.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>随着金融体系的瓦解，美联储的首要任务是通过掌控金融体系和经济的关键领域，将金融体系和经济从其他公共和私营部门参与者贪婪无能的影响中拯救出来。</b></blockquote></p><p> After the subprime debacle almost took down the entire global financial system, the Fed (with a bit of help from Congress) essentially took over the entire $10 trillion U.S. mortgage market.</p><p><blockquote>在次贷危机几乎摧毁了整个全球金融体系后，美联储（在国会的帮助下）基本上接管了整个10万亿美元的美国抵押贷款市场。</blockquote></p><p> Private-sector lenders had figured out how to issue guaranteed-to-default mortgages and pass off the fraudulent mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to a global cast of suckers who believed America’s financial system was properly regulated. (Haha, the joke’s on you.)</p><p><blockquote>私营部门贷款机构已经想出了如何发行违约担保抵押贷款，并将欺诈性抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）转嫁给一群相信美国金融体系受到适当监管的全球傻瓜。（哈哈，笑话在你身上。）</blockquote></p><p> In response, the Fed basically nationalized the mortgage market, buying more than $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities and ensuring that virtually all mortgages in the U.S. were guaranteed or originated by federal agencies: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (after their bankruptcy as quasi-private agencies), FHA and VA.</p><p><blockquote>作为回应，美联储基本上将抵押贷款市场国有化，购买了超过 1 万亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，并确保美国几乎所有抵押贷款都由联邦机构担保或发起：房利美和房地美（准私人机构破产后）、联邦住房管理局和退伍军人管理局。</blockquote></p><p> More recently, the Fed realized the private broker-dealer banks that handle the all-important issuance of Treasury bonds could no longer be trusted.</p><p><blockquote>最近，美联储意识到处理最重要的国债发行的私人经纪自营商银行不再可信。</blockquote></p><p> As analyst Christopher Whalen explains, <b><i>“The Fed’s primary concern is not employment or inflation, but rather keeping the market for Treasury securities functioning.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如分析师克里斯托弗·惠伦解释的那样，<b><i>“美联储的首要关注点不是就业或通胀，而是保持国债市场的正常运转。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> In response, the Fed is cutting the broker-dealers out as unreliable players. The Treasury market and the U.S. dollar are the foundations of federal spending and power, and so the Fed has realized that, just as it did with the fraudulent embezzlers of the private-sector mortgage market, it has to bypass or neuter the private-sector players as threats to stability.</p><p><blockquote>作为回应，美联储正在将经纪自营商剔除为不可靠的参与者。国债市场和美元是联邦支出和权力的基础，因此美联储已经意识到，正如它对私营部门抵押贷款市场的欺诈性挪用者所做的那样，它必须绕过或压制私营部门参与者，将其视为对稳定的威胁。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Next up on the Fed’s agenda: take charge of the issuance of new money to households and cut Congress out of the loop.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储的下一个议程是：负责向家庭发行新货币，并将国会排除在外。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Money Directly From the Fed</b></p><p><blockquote><b>直接来自美联储的资金</b></blockquote></p><p> If you read up on the Fed’s plans for its own digital currency and the FedNow system, you’ll come to understand that the Fed has concluded that supporting consumption (i.e. giving money to households to enable more spending) is too important to leave in the corrupt hands of the legislative bodies (Congress) or the Treasury, which must issue debt to raise cash to distribute to households, debt that further burdens federal revenues and spending.</p><p><blockquote>如果你仔细阅读美联储对自己的数字货币和 FedNow 系统的计划，你就会明白，美联储已经得出结论，支持消费（即向家庭发放资金以增加支出）太重要了，不能把这些债务交给腐败的立法机构（国会）或财政部，因为后者必须发行债务来筹集现金以分配给家庭，而这些债务进一步加重了联邦收入和支出的负担。</blockquote></p><p> We can’t count on you, broker-dealers or Congress, so we’re taking charge, as the system is now so over-extended that any misadventure by other players could well be catastrophic. The only alternative from the Fed’s point of view is to take charge and cut the untrustworthy, self-serving incompetents out of the loop.</p><p><blockquote>我们不能指望你们、经纪人或国会，所以我们要负责，因为现在的系统已经过度扩张，其他参与者的任何意外都很可能是灾难性的。从美联储的角度来看，唯一的选择就是接管并将不值得信赖、自私自利的无能之辈剔除出去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So the Fed’s plan is to create new money out of thin air and deposit it directly in household accounts via the FedNow system.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>因此，美联储的计划是凭空创造新的货币，并通过 FedNow 系统直接存入家庭账户。</b></blockquote></p><p> The danger of this power grab is that the Fed will misjudge the situation, and that will prove catastrophic because the system has been stripped of resilience, feedback and redundancy.</p><p><blockquote>这种权力攫取的危险在于，美联储会误判形势，这将被证明是灾难性的，因为该系统已经失去了弹性、反馈和冗余。</blockquote></p><p> I suspect the Fed sees itself as trapped by the incompetence and greed of the other players and by its own policy extremes that were little more than expedient “saves” of a system that is unraveling due to its fragility and brittleness.</p><p><blockquote>我怀疑美联储认为自己被其他参与者的无能和贪婪以及自己的极端政策所困，这些政策只不过是对一个因脆弱性而正在瓦解的体系的权宜之计 “拯救”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The groundwork is being laid for the Fed’s digital currency and direct deposits to households via FedNow accounts.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储正在为数字货币和通过 FedNow 账户向家庭直接存款奠定基础。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/feds-sneaky-plot\">Zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/feds-sneaky-plot","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187301815","content_text":"For the past 22 years, every time the stock market whimpered, wheezed or whined, the Federal Reserve rushed to soothe the spoiled crybaby.\nThere are two consequential results of the Fed as savior:\n\n 1. \n The Fed has perfected \nmoral hazard\n:everyone from the money manager betting billions to the punters gambling their stimmy money is absolutely confident I can’t lose because the Fed will always push the market higher.\n\nWhat happens when participants are confident they can’t possibly lose? They make ever-riskier and ever-larger bets. The entire nation is in the grip of a moral hazard mania, all based on the confidence that the Fed will always push every market higher—always, without fail.\n\n 2. \n Organic (i.e. non-manipulated) market forces have been extinguished.There is now only one consequential force, the Fed. All markets are now 100% dependent on the Fed responding to every bleat from every punter who’s recklessly risky bet is about to go bad.\n\nThe Fed is now the perfect union of quasi-religious savior and Helicopter Parent: oh dear, our little darling got high and crashed the Porsche? Quick, let’s save our precious market from any consequences!\nEvery day, Fed speakers take to the pulpit to spew another sermon about the Fed’s god-like power and wisdom. The true believers soak up every word: golly-gee, the Fed is better than any god — it’s guaranteeing I can get rich if I just leverage up any bet in any market!\nWith a savior like the Fed, you don’t need a real economy or a real market - all you need is the assurance that the Fed will save every market from every consequence.\nThe Point of Diminishing Returns\nAll this hubris is jolly while it lasts, but since risk cannot be dissipated, it can only be transferred, the Fed has transferred decades of fast-rising risk to the entire system. The entire system now rests on the Fed, a dependency that raises its own risks.\nBy imposing moral hazard and crushing consequences, the Fed has stripped the entire financial system of self-correcting mechanisms. This is a surefire recipe for systemic failure and collapse.\nThere is no way to wean the system off its dependence on the Fed, and no way to restore organic market functions. The slightest reduction in the Fed’s spew of trillions will crash the market, because there is literally nothing holding it aloft but Fed spew — monetary and verbal.\nThe problem with becoming 100% dependent on the Fed is any wobble will crash the system — and diminishing returns guarantee a wobble.\nThe system’s sensitivity to the Fed’s spew of trillions of dollars and claptrap preaching is diminishing,which is why the Fed has moved from spewing hundreds of billions to trillions, and why Fed speakers who we once heard from once a month are now out in force every single day.\nRemarkably, few anticipate any consequence from the Fed’s perfection of moral hazard and the system’s 100% dependence on the Fed’s spew even as diminishing returns gnaw away at the efficacy of the Fed’s ever more grandiose policies and pronouncements.\nIf you wanted to design a system guaranteed to collapse in a putrid heap, you’d make moral hazard ubiquitous and you’d make the system 100% dependent on a hubris-soaked faux savior.\nHey, that describes America’s economy and financial system perfectly. But now I want to explore something about the Fed you’ve probably never considered before…\nThe Fed’s Official and Unofficial Mandates\nThere are two standard-issue narratives about the Federal Reserve’s agenda: the Fed’s official narrative is that the Fed’s mandate is to keep inflation under control while promoting full employment.\nThe unofficial mandate that’s obvious to all is to prop up assets, especially the stock market, which has become the Fed’s preferred signifier of prosperity and the rightness/goodness of Fed policies.\nThe other narrative results from “following the money”: the Fed is owned by private-sector banks, and so behind the curtain of happy-talk (full employment, blah-blah-blah), the Fed’s only real agenda is to further enrich banks and too big to fail/jail financiers — something it has managed to do with remarkable success.\nThat the Fed inflated the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble and the 2005-2008 housing bubble is undeniable, as is the Fed’s 2008-09 bailout of the global financial system and too big to fail/jail mortgage originators and a vast array of other profiteering, embezzler-scoundrels.\nThe Fed’s zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) and unprecedented quantitative easing monetary stimulus have pushed the Fed balance sheet, federal debt and systemic debt to heights that heretofore would have been inconceivable.\nWhile pursuing these non-mutually-exclusive agendas — we came to do good and stayed to do well— the Fed has generated destabilizing extremes of wealth and income inequality, a reality that the Fed laughably denies. (There must be much mirth about this BS behind closed doors.)\nAllow me to posit a third agenda which doesn’t negate either conventional agenda but does explain some of the Fed’s actions since 2008…\nThe Fed’s Real Mandate\nAs the system unravels, the Fed’s primary imperative is to save the financial system and economy from the greed-soaked incompetence of the other players, public and private, by taking charge of critical swaths of the financial system and economy.\nAfter the subprime debacle almost took down the entire global financial system, the Fed (with a bit of help from Congress) essentially took over the entire $10 trillion U.S. mortgage market.\nPrivate-sector lenders had figured out how to issue guaranteed-to-default mortgages and pass off the fraudulent mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to a global cast of suckers who believed America’s financial system was properly regulated. (Haha, the joke’s on you.)\nIn response, the Fed basically nationalized the mortgage market, buying more than $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities and ensuring that virtually all mortgages in the U.S. were guaranteed or originated by federal agencies: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (after their bankruptcy as quasi-private agencies), FHA and VA.\nMore recently, the Fed realized the private broker-dealer banks that handle the all-important issuance of Treasury bonds could no longer be trusted.\nAs analyst Christopher Whalen explains, “The Fed’s primary concern is not employment or inflation, but rather keeping the market for Treasury securities functioning.”\nIn response, the Fed is cutting the broker-dealers out as unreliable players. The Treasury market and the U.S. dollar are the foundations of federal spending and power, and so the Fed has realized that, just as it did with the fraudulent embezzlers of the private-sector mortgage market, it has to bypass or neuter the private-sector players as threats to stability.\nNext up on the Fed’s agenda: take charge of the issuance of new money to households and cut Congress out of the loop.\nMoney Directly From the Fed\nIf you read up on the Fed’s plans for its own digital currency and the FedNow system, you’ll come to understand that the Fed has concluded that supporting consumption (i.e. giving money to households to enable more spending) is too important to leave in the corrupt hands of the legislative bodies (Congress) or the Treasury, which must issue debt to raise cash to distribute to households, debt that further burdens federal revenues and spending.\nWe can’t count on you, broker-dealers or Congress, so we’re taking charge, as the system is now so over-extended that any misadventure by other players could well be catastrophic. The only alternative from the Fed’s point of view is to take charge and cut the untrustworthy, self-serving incompetents out of the loop.\nSo the Fed’s plan is to create new money out of thin air and deposit it directly in household accounts via the FedNow system.\nThe danger of this power grab is that the Fed will misjudge the situation, and that will prove catastrophic because the system has been stripped of resilience, feedback and redundancy.\nI suspect the Fed sees itself as trapped by the incompetence and greed of the other players and by its own policy extremes that were little more than expedient “saves” of a system that is unraveling due to its fragility and brittleness.\nThe groundwork is being laid for the Fed’s digital currency and direct deposits to households via FedNow accounts.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/188076224"}
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