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2021-07-22

Be cautious as indexes are at all time high

Minerd Says U.S. Stocks Could Plunge 15% in ‘Very Rough’ Autumn<blockquote>Minerd 表示，美国股市在“非常艰难”的秋季可能暴跌 15%</blockquote>

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But once the Dodgers are at the opening game of the World Series, I think you’ll be able to buy.”<blockquote>“米纳德周三在接受彭博电视台采访时说：”今年9月和10月对股市来说可能会非常艰难。“也许会回撤 15% 甚至更多。但一旦道奇队进入世界大赛揭幕战，我想你就能买到了。”</blockquote> A faster-than-expected tapering of asset purchases from the Federal Reserve and the increasing spread of the delta variant are both major risk factors for stocks, Minerd said.<blockquote>米纳德表示，美联储缩减资产购买规模的速度快于预期，以及德尔塔变异毒株利差的扩大都是股市的主要风险因素。</blockquote> Minerd also expects cryptocurrencies to remain challenged in the coming months. He sees Bitcoin falling further to “something in the neighborhood of $15,000, and said “a lot of this stuff is just junk.”<blockquote>Minerd 还预计加密货币在未来几个月仍将面临挑战。他认为比特币的价格进一步跌至 “1.5 万美元左右”，并说 “很多东西都是垃圾”。</blockquote> Bitcoin traded around $31,700 Wednesday, near the lower end of its range over the past two months and down about 50% from the April peak.<blockquote>比特币周三交易价格约为 31,700 美元，接近过去两个月区间的下限，较 4 月份的峰值下跌约 50%。</blockquote> “I think there’s still more air to come out,” Minerd said. “The standard bear market for Bitcoin has been an 80% retracement and given all the uncertainty and the new competition from new coins, I think there’s more downside to go.”<blockquote>“米纳德说：”我认为还有更多的空气要出来。“比特币的标准熊市是 80% 的回撤，考虑到所有的不确定性和来自新币的新竞争，我认为还有更多的下行空间。”</blockquote> “When do you buy it? I don’t think anytime soon,” he added.<blockquote>“你什么时候买？我想不会很快，”他补充道。</blockquote> Minerd said Bitcoin’s under-performance of late is a bad sign for risk assets and could be the “canary in the coal mine that’s telling us we have more problems ahead for risk assets, and in particular stocks.”<blockquote>米纳德说，比特币最近的表现不佳对风险资产来说是一个不好的信号，可能是 “煤矿里的金丝雀，告诉我们风险资产，尤其是股票，未来还有更多问题”。</blockquote> Long term, Minerd sees Ethereum as a “more viable” cryptocurrency than Bitcoin.<blockquote>从长远来看，Minerd 认为以太币是一种比比特币 “更可行 ”的加密货币。</blockquote> Better Credit Opportunities Ahead<blockquote>未来有更好的信贷机会</blockquote> In credit, Minerd said lower-rated high-yield bonds are extremely expensive on a historical basis. For now, he prefers the top tier of junk bonds, and expects better opportunities to buy junk credit in the coming months.<blockquote>在信贷方面，米纳德表示，从历史角度来看，评级较低的高收益债券极其昂贵。目前，他更喜欢顶级垃圾债券，并预计未来几个月将有更好的机会购买垃圾信贷。</blockquote> “We are coming into a seasonally difficult time for risk assets, and there might be a better entry point if you want to get involved in high yield credit than where we are today,” Minerd said.<blockquote>“米纳德说：”对于风险资产来说，我们正进入一个季节性困难时期，如果你想涉足高收益信贷，可能会有一个比我们今天更好的切入点。</blockquote> Treasury yields could fall as much as 60 basis points from here if markets enter a risk-off cycle, he added.<blockquote>他补充说，如果市场进入避险周期，美国国债收益率可能会从这里下跌多达 60 个基点。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minerd Says U.S. Stocks Could Plunge 15% in ‘Very Rough’ Autumn<blockquote>Minerd 表示，美国股市在“非常艰难”的秋季可能暴跌 15%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinerd Says U.S. Stocks Could Plunge 15% in ‘Very Rough’ Autumn<blockquote>Minerd 表示，美国股市在“非常艰难”的秋季可能暴跌 15%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-07-22 08:55\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks could tumble 15% or more by the end of October in a challenging period for markets, said Scott Minerd, chairman and chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments.<blockquote>（彭博社）——古根海姆投资公司董事长兼首席投资官斯科特·米纳德表示，到 10 月底，美国股市可能会下跌 15% 或更多，这对市场来说是一个充满挑战的时期。</blockquote> “September and October are likely to be very rough this year” for stocks, Minerd said in a Bloomberg Television interview Wednesday. “Maybe a pullback of 15% or slightly more. But once the Dodgers are at the opening game of the World Series, I think you’ll be able to buy.”<blockquote>“米纳德周三在接受彭博电视台采访时说：”今年9月和10月对股市来说可能会非常艰难。“也许会回撤 15% 甚至更多。但一旦道奇队进入世界大赛揭幕战，我想你就能买到了。”</blockquote> A faster-than-expected tapering of asset purchases from the Federal Reserve and the increasing spread of the delta variant are both major risk factors for stocks, Minerd said.<blockquote>米纳德表示，美联储缩减资产购买规模的速度快于预期，以及德尔塔变异毒株利差的扩大都是股市的主要风险因素。</blockquote> Minerd also expects cryptocurrencies to remain challenged in the coming months. He sees Bitcoin falling further to “something in the neighborhood of $15,000, and said “a lot of this stuff is just junk.”<blockquote>Minerd 还预计加密货币在未来几个月仍将面临挑战。他认为比特币的价格进一步跌至 “1.5 万美元左右”，并说 “很多东西都是垃圾”。</blockquote> Bitcoin traded around $31,700 Wednesday, near the lower end of its range over the past two months and down about 50% from the April peak.<blockquote>比特币周三交易价格约为 31,700 美元，接近过去两个月区间的下限，较 4 月份的峰值下跌约 50%。</blockquote> “I think there’s still more air to come out,” Minerd said. “The standard bear market for Bitcoin has been an 80% retracement and given all the uncertainty and the new competition from new coins, I think there’s more downside to go.”<blockquote>“米纳德说：”我认为还有更多的空气要出来。“比特币的标准熊市是 80% 的回撤，考虑到所有的不确定性和来自新币的新竞争，我认为还有更多的下行空间。”</blockquote> “When do you buy it? I don’t think anytime soon,” he added.<blockquote>“你什么时候买？我想不会很快，”他补充道。</blockquote> Minerd said Bitcoin’s under-performance of late is a bad sign for risk assets and could be the “canary in the coal mine that’s telling us we have more problems ahead for risk assets, and in particular stocks.”<blockquote>米纳德说，比特币最近的表现不佳对风险资产来说是一个不好的信号，可能是 “煤矿里的金丝雀，告诉我们风险资产，尤其是股票，未来还有更多问题”。</blockquote> Long term, Minerd sees Ethereum as a “more viable” cryptocurrency than Bitcoin.<blockquote>从长远来看，Minerd 认为以太币是一种比比特币 “更可行 ”的加密货币。</blockquote> Better Credit Opportunities Ahead<blockquote>未来有更好的信贷机会</blockquote> In credit, Minerd said lower-rated high-yield bonds are extremely expensive on a historical basis. For now, he prefers the top tier of junk bonds, and expects better opportunities to buy junk credit in the coming months.<blockquote>在信贷方面，米纳德表示，从历史角度来看，评级较低的高收益债券极其昂贵。目前，他更喜欢顶级垃圾债券，并预计未来几个月将有更好的机会购买垃圾信贷。</blockquote> “We are coming into a seasonally difficult time for risk assets, and there might be a better entry point if you want to get involved in high yield credit than where we are today,” Minerd said.<blockquote>“米纳德说：”对于风险资产来说，我们正进入一个季节性困难时期，如果你想涉足高收益信贷，可能会有一个比我们今天更好的切入点。</blockquote> Treasury yields could fall as much as 60 basis points from here if markets enter a risk-off cycle, he added.<blockquote>他补充说，如果市场进入避险周期，美国国债收益率可能会从这里下跌多达 60 个基点。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/minerd-says-u-stocks-could-213554381.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/minerd-says-u-stocks-could-213554381.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182390348","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks could tumble 15% or more by the end of October in a challenging period for markets, said Scott Minerd, chairman and chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments.\n“September and October are likely to be very rough this year” for stocks, Minerd said in a Bloomberg Television interview Wednesday. “Maybe a pullback of 15% or slightly more. But once the Dodgers are at the opening game of the World Series, I think you’ll be able to buy.”\nA faster-than-expected tapering of asset purchases from the Federal Reserve and the increasing spread of the delta variant are both major risk factors for stocks, Minerd said.\nMinerd also expects cryptocurrencies to remain challenged in the coming months. He sees Bitcoin falling further to “something in the neighborhood of $15,000, and said “a lot of this stuff is just junk.”\nBitcoin traded around $31,700 Wednesday, near the lower end of its range over the past two months and down about 50% from the April peak.\n“I think there’s still more air to come out,” Minerd said. “The standard bear market for Bitcoin has been an 80% retracement and given all the uncertainty and the new competition from new coins, I think there’s more downside to go.”\n“When do you buy it? I don’t think anytime soon,” he added.\nMinerd said Bitcoin’s under-performance of late is a bad sign for risk assets and could be the “canary in the coal mine that’s telling us we have more problems ahead for risk assets, and in particular stocks.”\nLong term, Minerd sees Ethereum as a “more viable” cryptocurrency than Bitcoin.\nBetter Credit Opportunities Ahead\nIn credit, Minerd said lower-rated high-yield bonds are extremely expensive on a historical basis. For now, he prefers the top tier of junk bonds, and expects better opportunities to buy junk credit in the coming months.\n“We are coming into a seasonally difficult time for risk assets, and there might be a better entry point if you want to get involved in high yield credit than where we are today,” Minerd said.\nTreasury yields could fall as much as 60 basis points from here if markets enter a risk-off cycle, he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":573,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":35,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/176710078"}