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2021-07-19
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Record Stock Rally Ignores Wall Street’s Phobia About Optimism<blockquote>创纪录的股市上涨无视华尔街对乐观情绪的恐惧</blockquote>
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Yet major U.S. indexes continue to rally to records, putting the Dow Jones Industrial Average up a healthy 13% for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>整个2021年，一系列调查、资金流动数据和期权活动都表明，大大小小的投资者都异常看好。然而，美国主要股指继续上涨至创纪录水平，道琼斯工业平均指数在 2021 年健康上涨 13%。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts have long relied on sentiment and related data on risk-taking as contrarian indicators. By the time friends, colleagues and strangers are plowing money into stocks and telling you about it, it’s time to run for cover, to this way of thinking. Likewise, when everyone is selling, you should be buying with both hands.</p><p><blockquote>分析师长期以来一直依赖情绪和风险承担相关数据作为逆向指标。当朋友、同事和陌生人把钱投入股票并告诉你这件事时，是时候用这种思维方式去寻找掩护了。同样，当每个人都在抛售时，你应该双手买入。</blockquote></p><p> But for much of this year, it has paid enormous dividends to stay with the herd. It’s the latest departure from the tried and true in a year that already has broughtsoaring meme stocks,record lumber pricesand a bond-market rally in the face of rising inflation. In short, now is when analysts and portfolio managers are starting to wonder whether it really is different this time.</p><p><blockquote>但在今年的大部分时间里，它已经支付了巨大的红利来留在牛群中。在这一年里，备忘录股票飙升、木材价格创下历史新高，债券市场在通胀上升的情况下反弹，这是对屡试不爽的最新背离。简而言之，现在分析师和投资组合经理开始怀疑这次是否真的有所不同。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve been throwing up our hands for a while,” said Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. “For whatever the reason, the market is just rolling over all these historical indicators that before had a very consistent track record.”</p><p><blockquote>“Sundial Capital Research 总裁 Jason Goepfert 说：”我们已经举手有一段时间了。“不管出于什么原因，市场只是在滚动所有这些历史指标，而这些指标以前有着非常一致的记录。”</blockquote></p><p> In the coming week, traders will parse data on housing starts and building permits, as well as earnings from companies including Johnson & Johnson andUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.,for further clues about pricing pressures.</p><p><blockquote>未来一周，交易员将分析新屋开工和建筑许可数据，以及强生公司和联合航空控股公司等公司的收益，以获取有关定价压力的进一步线索。</blockquote></p><p> They will also be watching to see if sentiment oscillates. Recently, signs of waning sentiment have begun peeking through some indicators, though bullishness largely remains above or near long-term averages.</p><p><blockquote>他们还将关注情绪是否波动。最近，一些指标开始出现情绪减弱的迹象，尽管看涨情绪在很大程度上仍高于或接近长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> Americans’ stock allocations reached nearly 60% at the end of March, a figure just below the all-time high of 61.7% reached during the dot-com bubble, according to data from Ned Davis Research stretching back to 1951.</p><p><blockquote>根据内德-戴维斯研究公司（Ned Davis Research）自 1951 年以来的数据，3 月底美国人的股票配置比例接近 60%，这一数字略低于互联网泡沫时期 61.7% 的历史最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> A July survey by retail brokerage E*Trade found that bullishness among the platform’s individual investors recently hit more than a three-year high, rising to 65%. Additionally, the often-watched equity put-call ratio—which measures the volume of bearish options bets placed on stocks versus bullish ones—earlier this year notched sustained levels of optimism not seen since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>零售经纪公司 E*Trade 在 7 月份的一项调查发现，该平台个人投资者的看涨情绪最近创下了三年多来的新高，升至 65%。此外，备受关注的股票看跌看涨期权比率（衡量对股票下注的看跌期权与看涨期权的数量）在今年早些时候创下了自 2000 年以来从未有过的持续乐观水平。</blockquote></p><p> The source of the optimism that has fueled 39 records this year on the S&P 500 isn’t hard to divine. Most notably, there’s an unusual and powerful blend of stimulus and easy monetary policy that has left investors flush with cash and with few sources of steady investment returns. The entrance ofa new cohort of retail tradershas provided an extra boost to prices, too.</p><p><blockquote>今年标普500创下 39 项纪录的乐观情绪的来源不难猜测。最值得注意的是，刺激政策和宽松货币政策不同寻常地强有力地结合在一起，让投资者现金充裕，而稳定的投资回报来源却很少。新一批零售商的进入也为价格提供了额外的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts say the combination of those factors has pushed markets higher, providing traders with enough momentum and opportunity to ignore signs of stretched sentiment—as well as other risks, including an unclear inflation outlook andrising coronavirus cases.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，这些因素的结合推高了市场，为交易员提供了足够的动力和机会来忽略市场情绪紧张的迹象，以及其他风险，包括通胀前景不明朗和冠状病毒病例增加。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, market breadth, or a measure of how many stocks are participating in a rally, has deteriorated—even as major indexes have continued to hit all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>最近，市场广度（衡量有多少股票参与反弹的指标）已经恶化——尽管主要股指继续创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> As of Thursday, only about 49% of stocks in the S&P 500 traded above their 50-day moving averages, according to FactSet, a level that is below average and one that is a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, whenthat metric reached more than 90%. According to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, that’s a troubling sign when sentiment remains so high.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 的数据显示，截至周四，标普500只有约 49% 的股票交易价格高于 50 天移动平均线，这一水平低于平均水平，与几个月前相比出现了急剧逆转，当时该指标达到了 90% 以上。嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）首席投资策略师利兹-安-桑德斯（Liz Ann Sonders）认为，当市场情绪仍然如此高涨时，这是一个令人不安的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “Any longtime sentiment watcher knows that breadth is a positive offset to extreme sentiment conditions,” Ms. Sonders said. “But when breadth starts to deteriorate and the market is still trading at or near all-time highs, and there’s been no dent to sentiment conditions, that’s when trouble really brews.”</p><p><blockquote>“桑德斯女士说：”任何长期观察情绪的人都知道，广度是对极端情绪状况的积极抵消。“但是，当宽度开始恶化，市场仍在历史高点或接近历史高点时，市场情绪状况没有减弱，这时麻烦就真正酝酿出来了。”</blockquote></p><p> But sentiment can remain elevated for long periods, as it did in the late 1990s, she said. And while major indexes have risen, pockets of excess have lost steam.</p><p><blockquote>但她表示，情绪可能会在很长一段时间内保持高涨，就像 20 世纪 90 年代末一样。尽管主要股指有所上涨，但部分过剩股票却失去了动力。</blockquote></p><p> “In places where speculation has been rampant, you have seen massive drawdowns—in cryptocurrencies, [special-purpose acquisition companies], nonprofitable tech companies and meme stocks,” Ms. Sonders said.</p><p><blockquote>“桑德斯女士说：”在投机猖獗的地方，你会看到大规模的回撤--在加密货币、[特殊目的收购公司]、非盈利科技公司和备忘录股票方面。</blockquote></p><p> According a recent Charles Schwab note based on data from Ned Davis Research, when stockholdings among U.S. households have previously climbed to among the highest levels, the S&P 500 has tended to produce modest returns on average in following years. For example, when households’ stock allocations have risen to 54.6% or higher—as they did during the dot-com bubble and the years leading up to the 2007-09 recession—the average annualized return for the S&P 500 over the next 10 years has been 4.1%.</p><p><blockquote>根据嘉信理财最近基于 Ned Davis Research 数据的一份报告，当美国家庭的股票持有量此前攀升至最高水平时，标普500往往会在随后几年产生适度的平均回报。例如，当家庭股票配置上升到 54.6% 或更高时--就像互联网泡沫时期和 2007-09 年经济衰退前几年那样--标普500未来 10 年的平均年化回报率为 4.1%。</blockquote></p><p> In contrast, when stock allocations have hovered around 29% or lower, the average annualized return over the next 10 years for the benchmark index has been 16.3%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，当股票配置徘徊在 29% 左右或更低时，基准指数未来 10 年的平均年化回报率为 16.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Even so, unique conditions within the market this year might allow stocks to keep grinding higher.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，今年市场的独特条件可能会让股市继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> “Markets are just doing their own thing,” Mr. Goepfert said. “Something has changed. Whether it’s unprecedented stimulus or maybe there is this generational change with young investors. This new surge into the market keeps driving stocks higher.”</p><p><blockquote>“戈普弗特先生说：”市场只是在做自己的事情。“情况发生了变化。无论是前所未有的刺激措施，还是年轻投资者的代际更迭。这种新的市场热潮不断推动股市走高。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Record Stock Rally Ignores Wall Street’s Phobia About Optimism<blockquote>创纪录的股市上涨无视华尔街对乐观情绪的恐惧</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRecord Stock Rally Ignores Wall Street’s Phobia About Optimism<blockquote>创纪录的股市上涨无视华尔街对乐观情绪的恐惧</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">WSJ</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 09:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The latest victim of the rampaging bull market in stocks is the Wall Street maxim that glowing investor sentiment is a sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>股市疯狂牛市的最新受害者是华尔街的格言，即投资者情绪高涨是卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout 2021, a range of surveys, fund-flow figures and options activity have shown investors big and small to be exceptionally bullish. Yet major U.S. indexes continue to rally to records, putting the Dow Jones Industrial Average up a healthy 13% for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>整个2021年，一系列调查、资金流动数据和期权活动都表明，大大小小的投资者都异常看好。然而，美国主要股指继续上涨至创纪录水平，道琼斯工业平均指数在 2021 年健康上涨 13%。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts have long relied on sentiment and related data on risk-taking as contrarian indicators. By the time friends, colleagues and strangers are plowing money into stocks and telling you about it, it’s time to run for cover, to this way of thinking. Likewise, when everyone is selling, you should be buying with both hands.</p><p><blockquote>分析师长期以来一直依赖情绪和风险承担相关数据作为逆向指标。当朋友、同事和陌生人把钱投入股票并告诉你这件事时，是时候用这种思维方式去寻找掩护了。同样，当每个人都在抛售时，你应该双手买入。</blockquote></p><p> But for much of this year, it has paid enormous dividends to stay with the herd. It’s the latest departure from the tried and true in a year that already has broughtsoaring meme stocks,record lumber pricesand a bond-market rally in the face of rising inflation. In short, now is when analysts and portfolio managers are starting to wonder whether it really is different this time.</p><p><blockquote>但在今年的大部分时间里，它已经支付了巨大的红利来留在牛群中。在这一年里，备忘录股票飙升、木材价格创下历史新高，债券市场在通胀上升的情况下反弹，这是对屡试不爽的最新背离。简而言之，现在分析师和投资组合经理开始怀疑这次是否真的有所不同。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve been throwing up our hands for a while,” said Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. “For whatever the reason, the market is just rolling over all these historical indicators that before had a very consistent track record.”</p><p><blockquote>“Sundial Capital Research 总裁 Jason Goepfert 说：”我们已经举手有一段时间了。“不管出于什么原因，市场只是在滚动所有这些历史指标，而这些指标以前有着非常一致的记录。”</blockquote></p><p> In the coming week, traders will parse data on housing starts and building permits, as well as earnings from companies including Johnson & Johnson andUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.,for further clues about pricing pressures.</p><p><blockquote>未来一周，交易员将分析新屋开工和建筑许可数据，以及强生公司和联合航空控股公司等公司的收益，以获取有关定价压力的进一步线索。</blockquote></p><p> They will also be watching to see if sentiment oscillates. Recently, signs of waning sentiment have begun peeking through some indicators, though bullishness largely remains above or near long-term averages.</p><p><blockquote>他们还将关注情绪是否波动。最近，一些指标开始出现情绪减弱的迹象，尽管看涨情绪在很大程度上仍高于或接近长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> Americans’ stock allocations reached nearly 60% at the end of March, a figure just below the all-time high of 61.7% reached during the dot-com bubble, according to data from Ned Davis Research stretching back to 1951.</p><p><blockquote>根据内德-戴维斯研究公司（Ned Davis Research）自 1951 年以来的数据，3 月底美国人的股票配置比例接近 60%，这一数字略低于互联网泡沫时期 61.7% 的历史最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> A July survey by retail brokerage E*Trade found that bullishness among the platform’s individual investors recently hit more than a three-year high, rising to 65%. Additionally, the often-watched equity put-call ratio—which measures the volume of bearish options bets placed on stocks versus bullish ones—earlier this year notched sustained levels of optimism not seen since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>零售经纪公司 E*Trade 在 7 月份的一项调查发现，该平台个人投资者的看涨情绪最近创下了三年多来的新高，升至 65%。此外，备受关注的股票看跌看涨期权比率（衡量对股票下注的看跌期权与看涨期权的数量）在今年早些时候创下了自 2000 年以来从未有过的持续乐观水平。</blockquote></p><p> The source of the optimism that has fueled 39 records this year on the S&P 500 isn’t hard to divine. Most notably, there’s an unusual and powerful blend of stimulus and easy monetary policy that has left investors flush with cash and with few sources of steady investment returns. The entrance ofa new cohort of retail tradershas provided an extra boost to prices, too.</p><p><blockquote>今年标普500创下 39 项纪录的乐观情绪的来源不难猜测。最值得注意的是，刺激政策和宽松货币政策不同寻常地强有力地结合在一起，让投资者现金充裕，而稳定的投资回报来源却很少。新一批零售商的进入也为价格提供了额外的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts say the combination of those factors has pushed markets higher, providing traders with enough momentum and opportunity to ignore signs of stretched sentiment—as well as other risks, including an unclear inflation outlook andrising coronavirus cases.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，这些因素的结合推高了市场，为交易员提供了足够的动力和机会来忽略市场情绪紧张的迹象，以及其他风险，包括通胀前景不明朗和冠状病毒病例增加。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, market breadth, or a measure of how many stocks are participating in a rally, has deteriorated—even as major indexes have continued to hit all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>最近，市场广度（衡量有多少股票参与反弹的指标）已经恶化——尽管主要股指继续创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> As of Thursday, only about 49% of stocks in the S&P 500 traded above their 50-day moving averages, according to FactSet, a level that is below average and one that is a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, whenthat metric reached more than 90%. According to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, that’s a troubling sign when sentiment remains so high.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 的数据显示，截至周四，标普500只有约 49% 的股票交易价格高于 50 天移动平均线，这一水平低于平均水平，与几个月前相比出现了急剧逆转，当时该指标达到了 90% 以上。嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）首席投资策略师利兹-安-桑德斯（Liz Ann Sonders）认为，当市场情绪仍然如此高涨时，这是一个令人不安的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “Any longtime sentiment watcher knows that breadth is a positive offset to extreme sentiment conditions,” Ms. Sonders said. “But when breadth starts to deteriorate and the market is still trading at or near all-time highs, and there’s been no dent to sentiment conditions, that’s when trouble really brews.”</p><p><blockquote>“桑德斯女士说：”任何长期观察情绪的人都知道，广度是对极端情绪状况的积极抵消。“但是，当宽度开始恶化，市场仍在历史高点或接近历史高点时，市场情绪状况没有减弱，这时麻烦就真正酝酿出来了。”</blockquote></p><p> But sentiment can remain elevated for long periods, as it did in the late 1990s, she said. And while major indexes have risen, pockets of excess have lost steam.</p><p><blockquote>但她表示，情绪可能会在很长一段时间内保持高涨，就像 20 世纪 90 年代末一样。尽管主要股指有所上涨，但部分过剩股票却失去了动力。</blockquote></p><p> “In places where speculation has been rampant, you have seen massive drawdowns—in cryptocurrencies, [special-purpose acquisition companies], nonprofitable tech companies and meme stocks,” Ms. Sonders said.</p><p><blockquote>“桑德斯女士说：”在投机猖獗的地方，你会看到大规模的回撤--在加密货币、[特殊目的收购公司]、非盈利科技公司和备忘录股票方面。</blockquote></p><p> According a recent Charles Schwab note based on data from Ned Davis Research, when stockholdings among U.S. households have previously climbed to among the highest levels, the S&P 500 has tended to produce modest returns on average in following years. For example, when households’ stock allocations have risen to 54.6% or higher—as they did during the dot-com bubble and the years leading up to the 2007-09 recession—the average annualized return for the S&P 500 over the next 10 years has been 4.1%.</p><p><blockquote>根据嘉信理财最近基于 Ned Davis Research 数据的一份报告，当美国家庭的股票持有量此前攀升至最高水平时，标普500往往会在随后几年产生适度的平均回报。例如，当家庭股票配置上升到 54.6% 或更高时--就像互联网泡沫时期和 2007-09 年经济衰退前几年那样--标普500未来 10 年的平均年化回报率为 4.1%。</blockquote></p><p> In contrast, when stock allocations have hovered around 29% or lower, the average annualized return over the next 10 years for the benchmark index has been 16.3%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，当股票配置徘徊在 29% 左右或更低时，基准指数未来 10 年的平均年化回报率为 16.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Even so, unique conditions within the market this year might allow stocks to keep grinding higher.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，今年市场的独特条件可能会让股市继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> “Markets are just doing their own thing,” Mr. Goepfert said. “Something has changed. Whether it’s unprecedented stimulus or maybe there is this generational change with young investors. This new surge into the market keeps driving stocks higher.”</p><p><blockquote>“戈普弗特先生说：”市场只是在做自己的事情。“情况发生了变化。无论是前所未有的刺激措施，还是年轻投资者的代际更迭。这种新的市场热潮不断推动股市走高。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-stock-rally-ignores-wall-streets-phobia-about-optimism-11626600781?mod=hp_lead_pos5\">WSJ</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UAL":"联合大陆航空","JNJ":"强生"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-stock-rally-ignores-wall-streets-phobia-about-optimism-11626600781?mod=hp_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123426523","content_text":"The latest victim of the rampaging bull market in stocks is the Wall Street maxim that glowing investor sentiment is a sell signal.\nThroughout 2021, a range of surveys, fund-flow figures and options activity have shown investors big and small to be exceptionally bullish. Yet major U.S. indexes continue to rally to records, putting the Dow Jones Industrial Average up a healthy 13% for 2021.\nAnalysts have long relied on sentiment and related data on risk-taking as contrarian indicators. By the time friends, colleagues and strangers are plowing money into stocks and telling you about it, it’s time to run for cover, to this way of thinking. Likewise, when everyone is selling, you should be buying with both hands.\nBut for much of this year, it has paid enormous dividends to stay with the herd. It’s the latest departure from the tried and true in a year that already has broughtsoaring meme stocks,record lumber pricesand a bond-market rally in the face of rising inflation. In short, now is when analysts and portfolio managers are starting to wonder whether it really is different this time.\n“We’ve been throwing up our hands for a while,” said Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. “For whatever the reason, the market is just rolling over all these historical indicators that before had a very consistent track record.”\nIn the coming week, traders will parse data on housing starts and building permits, as well as earnings from companies including Johnson & Johnson andUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.,for further clues about pricing pressures.\nThey will also be watching to see if sentiment oscillates. Recently, signs of waning sentiment have begun peeking through some indicators, though bullishness largely remains above or near long-term averages.\nAmericans’ stock allocations reached nearly 60% at the end of March, a figure just below the all-time high of 61.7% reached during the dot-com bubble, according to data from Ned Davis Research stretching back to 1951.\nA July survey by retail brokerage E*Trade found that bullishness among the platform’s individual investors recently hit more than a three-year high, rising to 65%. Additionally, the often-watched equity put-call ratio—which measures the volume of bearish options bets placed on stocks versus bullish ones—earlier this year notched sustained levels of optimism not seen since 2000.\nThe source of the optimism that has fueled 39 records this year on the S&P 500 isn’t hard to divine. Most notably, there’s an unusual and powerful blend of stimulus and easy monetary policy that has left investors flush with cash and with few sources of steady investment returns. The entrance ofa new cohort of retail tradershas provided an extra boost to prices, too.\nAnalysts say the combination of those factors has pushed markets higher, providing traders with enough momentum and opportunity to ignore signs of stretched sentiment—as well as other risks, including an unclear inflation outlook andrising coronavirus cases.\nRecently, market breadth, or a measure of how many stocks are participating in a rally, has deteriorated—even as major indexes have continued to hit all-time highs.\nAs of Thursday, only about 49% of stocks in the S&P 500 traded above their 50-day moving averages, according to FactSet, a level that is below average and one that is a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, whenthat metric reached more than 90%. According to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, that’s a troubling sign when sentiment remains so high.\n“Any longtime sentiment watcher knows that breadth is a positive offset to extreme sentiment conditions,” Ms. Sonders said. “But when breadth starts to deteriorate and the market is still trading at or near all-time highs, and there’s been no dent to sentiment conditions, that’s when trouble really brews.”\nBut sentiment can remain elevated for long periods, as it did in the late 1990s, she said. And while major indexes have risen, pockets of excess have lost steam.\n“In places where speculation has been rampant, you have seen massive drawdowns—in cryptocurrencies, [special-purpose acquisition companies], nonprofitable tech companies and meme stocks,” Ms. Sonders said.\nAccording a recent Charles Schwab note based on data from Ned Davis Research, when stockholdings among U.S. households have previously climbed to among the highest levels, the S&P 500 has tended to produce modest returns on average in following years. For example, when households’ stock allocations have risen to 54.6% or higher—as they did during the dot-com bubble and the years leading up to the 2007-09 recession—the average annualized return for the S&P 500 over the next 10 years has been 4.1%.\nIn contrast, when stock allocations have hovered around 29% or lower, the average annualized return over the next 10 years for the benchmark index has been 16.3%.\nEven so, unique conditions within the market this year might allow stocks to keep grinding higher.\n“Markets are just doing their own thing,” Mr. Goepfert said. “Something has changed. Whether it’s unprecedented stimulus or maybe there is this generational change with young investors. This new surge into the market keeps driving stocks higher.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JNJ":0.9,"UAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/173629911"}
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