GM1318
2021-07-16
Great
Calling An End To The Commodity Rally? Not So Fast<blockquote>宣告大宗商品涨势结束？没那么快</blockquote>
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Not So Fast<blockquote>宣告大宗商品涨势结束？没那么快</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171524242","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While much has been made around the fact that Lumber futures are now down for the year having been u","content":"<p>While much has been made around the fact that Lumber futures are now down for the year having been up c.200% at its peak, good luck trying to find actual lumber at your friendly neighborhood Home Depot at anything but nosebleed prices. Why? Simple: rising prices are stickier than superglu, and once higher producers will either wait until the last possible moment to cut, or will simply cartelize and limit production until demand eventually catches up with the new level of supply.</p><p><blockquote>虽然人们对木材期货今年下跌的事实有很多看法，但在峰值时上涨了约200%，祝你好运，在你友好的邻居家得宝（Home Depot）找到真正的木材，价格不会让人流鼻血。为什么？很简单：价格上涨比强力胶更具粘性，一旦价格上涨，生产商要么等到最后一刻才减产，要么干脆卡特尔化并限制产量，直到需求最终赶上新的供应水平。</blockquote></p><p> Regardless, of the lag behind commodity end prices, lumber is still the big exception rather than the norm.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，由于大宗商品终端价格的滞后，木材仍然是一个很大的例外，而不是常态。</blockquote></p><p> As DB's Jim Reid writes in his daily Chart of the Day titled \"<i>Food (energy and metals) for thought</i>\", even as the reflation trade has stumbled over the last couple of months, commodities remain near their six-year highs. In fact, looking at the chart below, which shows the post-trough recovery in commodity prices over the last 20 recovery cycles going back to 1914, the post-Covid recovery is now the strongest on record, having just overtaken even the rebound from the 1933 Great Depression.</p><p><blockquote>正如DB的吉姆·里德(Jim Reid)在他题为“<i>精神食粮（能量和金属）</i>“，尽管通货再膨胀交易在过去几个月中跌跌撞撞，但大宗商品仍接近六年高点。事实上，看看下图，它显示了过去20个复苏周期中大宗商品价格在低谷后的复苏可以追溯到1914年，新冠疫情后的复苏现在是有记录以来最强劲的，甚至刚刚超过了1933年大萧条的反弹。</blockquote></p><p> So for those who are calling an early end to the commodity rally, Bloomberg's John Authers has some words of caution: \"in the case of the post-Depression rebound, the rally in commodities went on to be enduringly strong for another two years.\"</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于那些呼吁大宗商品涨势提前结束的人，彭博社的约翰·奥瑟斯提出了一些警告：“在大萧条后反弹的情况下，大宗商品的涨势又持续了两年。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a98a1dbcd116ed5d985a31da98f7a2b9\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> And while it is possible that the commodity price reaction to an extreme and unusual downturn will differ from historical patterns, Authers concludes that \"it’s hard to say at present that there’s any good evidence that commodity prices aren’t going to keep contributing to inflation for a while.\"</p><p><blockquote>尽管大宗商品价格对极端和不寻常的低迷的反应可能与历史模式不同，但奥瑟斯得出的结论是，“目前很难说有任何好的证据表明大宗商品价格不会继续助长通胀。”一段时间。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Calling An End To The Commodity Rally? Not So Fast<blockquote>宣告大宗商品涨势结束？没那么快</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCalling An End To The Commodity Rally? Not So Fast<blockquote>宣告大宗商品涨势结束？没那么快</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-16 09:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While much has been made around the fact that Lumber futures are now down for the year having been up c.200% at its peak, good luck trying to find actual lumber at your friendly neighborhood Home Depot at anything but nosebleed prices. Why? Simple: rising prices are stickier than superglu, and once higher producers will either wait until the last possible moment to cut, or will simply cartelize and limit production until demand eventually catches up with the new level of supply.</p><p><blockquote>虽然人们对木材期货今年下跌的事实有很多看法，但在峰值时上涨了约200%，祝你好运，在你友好的邻居家得宝（Home Depot）找到真正的木材，价格不会让人流鼻血。为什么？很简单：价格上涨比强力胶更具粘性，一旦价格上涨，生产商要么等到最后一刻才减产，要么干脆卡特尔化并限制产量，直到需求最终赶上新的供应水平。</blockquote></p><p> Regardless, of the lag behind commodity end prices, lumber is still the big exception rather than the norm.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，由于大宗商品终端价格的滞后，木材仍然是一个很大的例外，而不是常态。</blockquote></p><p> As DB's Jim Reid writes in his daily Chart of the Day titled \"<i>Food (energy and metals) for thought</i>\", even as the reflation trade has stumbled over the last couple of months, commodities remain near their six-year highs. In fact, looking at the chart below, which shows the post-trough recovery in commodity prices over the last 20 recovery cycles going back to 1914, the post-Covid recovery is now the strongest on record, having just overtaken even the rebound from the 1933 Great Depression.</p><p><blockquote>正如DB的吉姆·里德(Jim Reid)在他题为“<i>精神食粮（能量和金属）</i>“，尽管通货再膨胀交易在过去几个月中跌跌撞撞，但大宗商品仍接近六年高点。事实上，看看下图，它显示了过去20个复苏周期中大宗商品价格在低谷后的复苏可以追溯到1914年，新冠疫情后的复苏现在是有记录以来最强劲的，甚至刚刚超过了1933年大萧条的反弹。</blockquote></p><p> So for those who are calling an early end to the commodity rally, Bloomberg's John Authers has some words of caution: \"in the case of the post-Depression rebound, the rally in commodities went on to be enduringly strong for another two years.\"</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于那些呼吁大宗商品涨势提前结束的人，彭博社的约翰·奥瑟斯提出了一些警告：“在大萧条后反弹的情况下，大宗商品的涨势又持续了两年。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a98a1dbcd116ed5d985a31da98f7a2b9\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> And while it is possible that the commodity price reaction to an extreme and unusual downturn will differ from historical patterns, Authers concludes that \"it’s hard to say at present that there’s any good evidence that commodity prices aren’t going to keep contributing to inflation for a while.\"</p><p><blockquote>尽管大宗商品价格对极端和不寻常的低迷的反应可能与历史模式不同，但奥瑟斯得出的结论是，“目前很难说有任何好的证据表明大宗商品价格不会继续助长通胀。”一段时间。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/calling-end-commodity-rally-not-so-fast\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/calling-end-commodity-rally-not-so-fast","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171524242","content_text":"While much has been made around the fact that Lumber futures are now down for the year having been up c.200% at its peak, good luck trying to find actual lumber at your friendly neighborhood Home Depot at anything but nosebleed prices. Why? Simple: rising prices are stickier than superglu, and once higher producers will either wait until the last possible moment to cut, or will simply cartelize and limit production until demand eventually catches up with the new level of supply.\nRegardless, of the lag behind commodity end prices, lumber is still the big exception rather than the norm.\nAs DB's Jim Reid writes in his daily Chart of the Day titled \"Food (energy and metals) for thought\", even as the reflation trade has stumbled over the last couple of months, commodities remain near their six-year highs. In fact, looking at the chart below, which shows the post-trough recovery in commodity prices over the last 20 recovery cycles going back to 1914, the post-Covid recovery is now the strongest on record, having just overtaken even the rebound from the 1933 Great Depression.\nSo for those who are calling an early end to the commodity rally, Bloomberg's John Authers has some words of caution: \"in the case of the post-Depression rebound, the rally in commodities went on to be enduringly strong for another two years.\"\n\nAnd while it is possible that the commodity price reaction to an extreme and unusual downturn will differ from historical patterns, Authers concludes that \"it’s hard to say at present that there’s any good evidence that commodity prices aren’t going to keep contributing to inflation for a while.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":699,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/170996077"}
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