Philipthean8
2021-07-16
Due to second wave and third wave of covidcase . Better trade with cautious
Expect A "Marked Slowdown" In Retail Sales<blockquote>预计零售销售将“显着放缓”</blockquote>
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Better trade with cautious","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170918306","repostId":1128667554,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128667554","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626397796,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1128667554?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 09:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expect A \"Marked Slowdown\" In Retail Sales<blockquote>预计零售销售将“显着放缓”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128667554","media":"zerohedge","summary":"According to BAC aggregated debit and credit card spending data, after a strong June, consumers hit ","content":"<p>According to BAC aggregated debit and credit card spending data, after a strong June, consumers hit the brakes, and total card spending slowed to only up 13% over a 2-year period or 12% over a 1-year for the 7-days ending July 10th. This will mark the slowest 1-year increase since the covid crisis began.</p><p><blockquote>根据 BAC 汇总借记卡和信用卡支出数据，在经历了强劲的 6 月份之后，消费者踩了刹车，截至 7 月 10 日的 7 天内，信用卡总支出放缓至两年内仅增长 13%，一年内仅增长 12%。这将标志着自新冠危机开始以来最慢的一年增幅。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b00d8cf015928ade5e9c807ca2132780\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is a marked slowdown from the prior week.</p><p><blockquote>这比前一周明显放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f35caedd813f7276963207e0792eff\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"1252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> And here is a breakdown of the key categories seeing a material slowdown in spending:</p><p><blockquote>以下是支出大幅放缓的主要类别的细分：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce594c9b626e712d37081f7d716560a4\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"1221\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to BofA, the slowdown is due to the following factors:</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，经济放缓是由于以下因素造成的：</blockquote></p><p> <b>July 4th calendar differences:</b>July 4-6 this year, which tend to be low spending days, was compared to July 7-9 last year, which were normal spending days. This created a notable drag to total card spending, particularly for certain categories such as home improvement and groceries.</p><p><blockquote><b>7 月 4 日日历差异：</b>今年的 7 月 4 日至 6 日往往是低消费日，而去年的 7 月 7 日至 9 日则是正常消费日。这对信用卡总支出造成了明显的拖累，特别是对于家居装修和杂货等某些类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online spending softened:</b>There was a material softening in online spending with the 2-year pace reaching 60% from nearly 90% last week. In contrast, the 2-year growth rate for brick & mortar retail spending has continued to hover around 10%. One possible factor could be the timing of Prime Day promotions which were in June this year versus mid-July in 2019 – the June Prime Day promotions may have pulled forward spending from July. This could also be a dampening factor next week as we will be directly comparing to the July 15-16 Prime Day promotion in 2019.</p><p><blockquote><b>在线支出疲软：</b>在线支出大幅放缓，两年增长率从上周的近 90% 降至 60%。相比之下，实体零售支出的两年增长率继续徘徊在10%左右。一个可能的因素可能是 Prime Day 促销活动的时间，今年 6 月而 2019 年 7 月中旬是 6 月 Prime Day 促销活动可能会从 7 月提前支出。这也可能是下周的一个抑制因素，因为我们将直接与2019年7月15日至16日的黄金日促销活动进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33de5e31fe6aec5a6b645e2db8c171d8\" tg-width=\"564\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Unemployment insurance expiration:</b>Starting with the week of June 12, states have been withdrawing early from federal unemployment insurance programs. Some states are removing the additional $300/week of federal aid and others are eliminating the benefits for long-term unemployed who have exhausted state aid. There are also some states that have offered “return-to-work” bonuses in lieu of the benefits. These factors complicate the analysis, but BofA looked at total card spending for the states that have withdrawn from the programs vs. those that have remained, indexed to the May average. Spending is slightly lower for the states that allowed the expiration than for the statesthat did not, but only in the most recent week.</p><p><blockquote><b>失业保险到期：</b>从6月12日当周开始，各州提前退出联邦失业保险计划。一些州正在取消每周额外300美元的联邦援助，另一些州正在取消耗尽州援助的长期失业者的福利。还有一些州提供 “重返工作岗位 ”奖金来代替福利。这些因素使分析变得复杂，但美国银行研究了退出该计划的州与保留该计划的州的信用卡总支出，并与 5 月份的平均水平挂钩。允许到期的州的支出略低于不允许到期的州，但仅在最近一周。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd016591c0a39192cc1097581854f5c\" tg-width=\"701\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Focusing on the states that withdrew and examined spending for those receiving UI vs. those which are not (noting that those receiving have seen a reduction in payments) shows some relative softening in spending for UI recipients.</p><p><blockquote>重点关注那些撤回和审查那些接受UI的国家与那些没有撤回和审查的国家的支出（注意那些接受UI的国家已经看到支付减少），显示UI接受者的支出相对有所缓和。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d018d945bfdb9fd6a84997f524364654\" tg-width=\"712\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bottom line: the expiration of UI likely contributed to the dampening of spending but only modestly.</p><p><blockquote>底线：UI 的到期可能导致支出下降，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, none of this matters for tomorrow's retail sales report which focuses on the month of June, and when BofA found that total card spending based on the aggregated BAC card data was up a far more solid 23% on a 2-year and 19% 1-year basis for the 7-days ending July 3rd.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些对于明天的零售销售报告来说都不重要，该报告重点关注 6 月份，美国银行发现，基于汇总 BAC 卡数据的信用卡总支出在截至 7 月 3 日的 7 天内比 2 年增长了 23%，1 年增长了 19%。</blockquote></p><p> Looking just at June, aggregated BAC card data shows that retail sales ex-autos increased 0.4% month-over-month (mom) seasonally adjusted (SA).</p><p><blockquote>仅从 6 月份来看，BAC 卡汇总数据显示，经季节性调整 (SA) 后，除汽车外的零售额环比 (mom) 增长 0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aecf9c2a80eea86ab88b69ef03598c1\" tg-width=\"662\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Note that retail sales ex-autos omits all services with the exception of restaurants and therefore understates the strength in consumer spending given the shift in dollars toward services spending.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，汽车零售额省略了除餐馆以外的所有服务，因此考虑到美元向服务支出的转变，低估了消费者支出的强度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cdff13668d317b4c915b8aa5273ee8\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Said otherwise, the monthly data highlight the rotation from goods to services spending, and BofA's measure of durable goods spending (furniture, electronics and building materials) was a negative contribution to the monthly change in total card spending over the last 3 months while services (restaurants, airlines and lodging) has been a positive contributor all year.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，月度数据凸显了从商品支出到服务支出的转变，美国银行对耐用品支出（家具、电子产品和建筑材料）的衡量对过去 3 个月信用卡总支出的月度变化产生了负面贡献，而服务（餐厅、航空公司和住宿）全年都是积极的贡献者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88fb79d431adad628d276d018df99e70\" tg-width=\"504\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To put this into perspective,<b>the gain in services spending over the last three months has offset the drag from durable goods by three-fold.</b>The more frequent weekly data suggest that this continued into July with a particularly notable improvement in travel-related spending through the early summer.</p><p><blockquote>从这个角度来看，<b>过去三个月服务支出的增长抵消了耐用品的拖累三倍。</b>更频繁的每周数据表明，这种情况一直持续到7月份，初夏与旅行相关的支出有了特别显著的改善。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bb808a33557bcad67aed95828eb63db\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"359\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Finally, what does this mean for tomorrow's retail sales data: as a reminder BofA has been flawless in the past 4 months in predicting the actual retail sales print using its credit card data, even as Wall Street consensus has been dead wrong month after month.</p><p><blockquote>最后，这对明天的零售销售数据意味着什么：提醒一下，在过去的4个月里，美国银行在使用其信用卡数据预测实际零售销售方面一直完美无缺，尽管华尔街的共识月复一月地大错特错。</blockquote></p><p> Well, according to the bank, even before the July slowdown, June saw disappointing activity and if the Census Bureau catches down to BofA, tomorrow's headline print will be -0.2%, below the consensus 0.0%, while the ex-autos number will be slightly better than consensus at 0.4% (vs 0.3%) while the core control group which feeds into the GDP calculation will also be just below the 0.3% consensus estimate, or 0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，根据该银行的说法，即使在 7 月份经济放缓之前，6 月份的活动也令人失望，如果人口普查局赶上美国银行，明天的头条新闻将为-0.2%，低于共识的 0.0%，而汽车数量将略高于共识的 0.4%（相对于 0.3%），而纳入 GDP 计算的核心对照组也将略低于 0.3% 的共识估计值，即 0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb6aea292a513731a4a7cff88e214b79\" tg-width=\"514\" tg-height=\"227\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> More ominously, after printing green every month this year, the 3 month moving average will post its first contraction tomorrow...</p><p><blockquote>更不祥的是，在今年每个月都出现绿色之后，3个月移动平均线将于明天首次收缩……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ceb9a5dc4d3662db06734991034d1f2\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"383\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... and if the adverse July trends persist, we are about to see a handful of very disappointing retail sales prints in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>...如果7月份的不利趋势持续下去，我们将在未来几个月看到一些非常令人失望的零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expect A \"Marked Slowdown\" In Retail Sales<blockquote>预计零售销售将“显着放缓”</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpect A \"Marked Slowdown\" In Retail Sales<blockquote>预计零售销售将“显着放缓”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-16 09:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to BAC aggregated debit and credit card spending data, after a strong June, consumers hit the brakes, and total card spending slowed to only up 13% over a 2-year period or 12% over a 1-year for the 7-days ending July 10th. This will mark the slowest 1-year increase since the covid crisis began.</p><p><blockquote>根据 BAC 汇总借记卡和信用卡支出数据，在经历了强劲的 6 月份之后，消费者踩了刹车，截至 7 月 10 日的 7 天内，信用卡总支出放缓至两年内仅增长 13%，一年内仅增长 12%。这将标志着自新冠危机开始以来最慢的一年增幅。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b00d8cf015928ade5e9c807ca2132780\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is a marked slowdown from the prior week.</p><p><blockquote>这比前一周明显放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f35caedd813f7276963207e0792eff\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"1252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> And here is a breakdown of the key categories seeing a material slowdown in spending:</p><p><blockquote>以下是支出大幅放缓的主要类别的细分：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce594c9b626e712d37081f7d716560a4\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"1221\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to BofA, the slowdown is due to the following factors:</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，经济放缓是由于以下因素造成的：</blockquote></p><p> <b>July 4th calendar differences:</b>July 4-6 this year, which tend to be low spending days, was compared to July 7-9 last year, which were normal spending days. This created a notable drag to total card spending, particularly for certain categories such as home improvement and groceries.</p><p><blockquote><b>7 月 4 日日历差异：</b>今年的 7 月 4 日至 6 日往往是低消费日，而去年的 7 月 7 日至 9 日则是正常消费日。这对信用卡总支出造成了明显的拖累，特别是对于家居装修和杂货等某些类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online spending softened:</b>There was a material softening in online spending with the 2-year pace reaching 60% from nearly 90% last week. In contrast, the 2-year growth rate for brick & mortar retail spending has continued to hover around 10%. One possible factor could be the timing of Prime Day promotions which were in June this year versus mid-July in 2019 – the June Prime Day promotions may have pulled forward spending from July. This could also be a dampening factor next week as we will be directly comparing to the July 15-16 Prime Day promotion in 2019.</p><p><blockquote><b>在线支出疲软：</b>在线支出大幅放缓，两年增长率从上周的近 90% 降至 60%。相比之下，实体零售支出的两年增长率继续徘徊在10%左右。一个可能的因素可能是 Prime Day 促销活动的时间，今年 6 月而 2019 年 7 月中旬是 6 月 Prime Day 促销活动可能会从 7 月提前支出。这也可能是下周的一个抑制因素，因为我们将直接与2019年7月15日至16日的黄金日促销活动进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33de5e31fe6aec5a6b645e2db8c171d8\" tg-width=\"564\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Unemployment insurance expiration:</b>Starting with the week of June 12, states have been withdrawing early from federal unemployment insurance programs. Some states are removing the additional $300/week of federal aid and others are eliminating the benefits for long-term unemployed who have exhausted state aid. There are also some states that have offered “return-to-work” bonuses in lieu of the benefits. These factors complicate the analysis, but BofA looked at total card spending for the states that have withdrawn from the programs vs. those that have remained, indexed to the May average. Spending is slightly lower for the states that allowed the expiration than for the statesthat did not, but only in the most recent week.</p><p><blockquote><b>失业保险到期：</b>从6月12日当周开始，各州提前退出联邦失业保险计划。一些州正在取消每周额外300美元的联邦援助，另一些州正在取消耗尽州援助的长期失业者的福利。还有一些州提供 “重返工作岗位 ”奖金来代替福利。这些因素使分析变得复杂，但美国银行研究了退出该计划的州与保留该计划的州的信用卡总支出，并与 5 月份的平均水平挂钩。允许到期的州的支出略低于不允许到期的州，但仅在最近一周。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd016591c0a39192cc1097581854f5c\" tg-width=\"701\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Focusing on the states that withdrew and examined spending for those receiving UI vs. those which are not (noting that those receiving have seen a reduction in payments) shows some relative softening in spending for UI recipients.</p><p><blockquote>重点关注那些撤回和审查那些接受UI的国家与那些没有撤回和审查的国家的支出（注意那些接受UI的国家已经看到支付减少），显示UI接受者的支出相对有所缓和。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d018d945bfdb9fd6a84997f524364654\" tg-width=\"712\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bottom line: the expiration of UI likely contributed to the dampening of spending but only modestly.</p><p><blockquote>底线：UI 的到期可能导致支出下降，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, none of this matters for tomorrow's retail sales report which focuses on the month of June, and when BofA found that total card spending based on the aggregated BAC card data was up a far more solid 23% on a 2-year and 19% 1-year basis for the 7-days ending July 3rd.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些对于明天的零售销售报告来说都不重要，该报告重点关注 6 月份，美国银行发现，基于汇总 BAC 卡数据的信用卡总支出在截至 7 月 3 日的 7 天内比 2 年增长了 23%，1 年增长了 19%。</blockquote></p><p> Looking just at June, aggregated BAC card data shows that retail sales ex-autos increased 0.4% month-over-month (mom) seasonally adjusted (SA).</p><p><blockquote>仅从 6 月份来看，BAC 卡汇总数据显示，经季节性调整 (SA) 后，除汽车外的零售额环比 (mom) 增长 0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aecf9c2a80eea86ab88b69ef03598c1\" tg-width=\"662\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Note that retail sales ex-autos omits all services with the exception of restaurants and therefore understates the strength in consumer spending given the shift in dollars toward services spending.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，汽车零售额省略了除餐馆以外的所有服务，因此考虑到美元向服务支出的转变，低估了消费者支出的强度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cdff13668d317b4c915b8aa5273ee8\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Said otherwise, the monthly data highlight the rotation from goods to services spending, and BofA's measure of durable goods spending (furniture, electronics and building materials) was a negative contribution to the monthly change in total card spending over the last 3 months while services (restaurants, airlines and lodging) has been a positive contributor all year.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，月度数据凸显了从商品支出到服务支出的转变，美国银行对耐用品支出（家具、电子产品和建筑材料）的衡量对过去 3 个月信用卡总支出的月度变化产生了负面贡献，而服务（餐厅、航空公司和住宿）全年都是积极的贡献者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88fb79d431adad628d276d018df99e70\" tg-width=\"504\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To put this into perspective,<b>the gain in services spending over the last three months has offset the drag from durable goods by three-fold.</b>The more frequent weekly data suggest that this continued into July with a particularly notable improvement in travel-related spending through the early summer.</p><p><blockquote>从这个角度来看，<b>过去三个月服务支出的增长抵消了耐用品的拖累三倍。</b>更频繁的每周数据表明，这种情况一直持续到7月份，初夏与旅行相关的支出有了特别显著的改善。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bb808a33557bcad67aed95828eb63db\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"359\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Finally, what does this mean for tomorrow's retail sales data: as a reminder BofA has been flawless in the past 4 months in predicting the actual retail sales print using its credit card data, even as Wall Street consensus has been dead wrong month after month.</p><p><blockquote>最后，这对明天的零售销售数据意味着什么：提醒一下，在过去的4个月里，美国银行在使用其信用卡数据预测实际零售销售方面一直完美无缺，尽管华尔街的共识月复一月地大错特错。</blockquote></p><p> Well, according to the bank, even before the July slowdown, June saw disappointing activity and if the Census Bureau catches down to BofA, tomorrow's headline print will be -0.2%, below the consensus 0.0%, while the ex-autos number will be slightly better than consensus at 0.4% (vs 0.3%) while the core control group which feeds into the GDP calculation will also be just below the 0.3% consensus estimate, or 0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，根据该银行的说法，即使在 7 月份经济放缓之前，6 月份的活动也令人失望，如果人口普查局赶上美国银行，明天的头条新闻将为-0.2%，低于共识的 0.0%，而汽车数量将略高于共识的 0.4%（相对于 0.3%），而纳入 GDP 计算的核心对照组也将略低于 0.3% 的共识估计值，即 0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb6aea292a513731a4a7cff88e214b79\" tg-width=\"514\" tg-height=\"227\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> More ominously, after printing green every month this year, the 3 month moving average will post its first contraction tomorrow...</p><p><blockquote>更不祥的是，在今年每个月都出现绿色之后，3个月移动平均线将于明天首次收缩……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ceb9a5dc4d3662db06734991034d1f2\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"383\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> ... and if the adverse July trends persist, we are about to see a handful of very disappointing retail sales prints in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>...如果7月份的不利趋势持续下去，我们将在未来几个月看到一些非常令人失望的零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/expect-marked-slowdown-retail-sales\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/expect-marked-slowdown-retail-sales","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128667554","content_text":"According to BAC aggregated debit and credit card spending data, after a strong June, consumers hit the brakes, and total card spending slowed to only up 13% over a 2-year period or 12% over a 1-year for the 7-days ending July 10th. This will mark the slowest 1-year increase since the covid crisis began.\n\nThis is a marked slowdown from the prior week.\n\nAnd here is a breakdown of the key categories seeing a material slowdown in spending:\nAccording to BofA, the slowdown is due to the following factors:\nJuly 4th calendar differences:July 4-6 this year, which tend to be low spending days, was compared to July 7-9 last year, which were normal spending days. This created a notable drag to total card spending, particularly for certain categories such as home improvement and groceries.\nOnline spending softened:There was a material softening in online spending with the 2-year pace reaching 60% from nearly 90% last week. In contrast, the 2-year growth rate for brick & mortar retail spending has continued to hover around 10%. One possible factor could be the timing of Prime Day promotions which were in June this year versus mid-July in 2019 – the June Prime Day promotions may have pulled forward spending from July. This could also be a dampening factor next week as we will be directly comparing to the July 15-16 Prime Day promotion in 2019.\nUnemployment insurance expiration:Starting with the week of June 12, states have been withdrawing early from federal unemployment insurance programs. Some states are removing the additional $300/week of federal aid and others are eliminating the benefits for long-term unemployed who have exhausted state aid. There are also some states that have offered “return-to-work” bonuses in lieu of the benefits. These factors complicate the analysis, but BofA looked at total card spending for the states that have withdrawn from the programs vs. those that have remained, indexed to the May average. Spending is slightly lower for the states that allowed the expiration than for the statesthat did not, but only in the most recent week.\n\nFocusing on the states that withdrew and examined spending for those receiving UI vs. those which are not (noting that those receiving have seen a reduction in payments) shows some relative softening in spending for UI recipients.\nBottom line: the expiration of UI likely contributed to the dampening of spending but only modestly.\nOf course, none of this matters for tomorrow's retail sales report which focuses on the month of June, and when BofA found that total card spending based on the aggregated BAC card data was up a far more solid 23% on a 2-year and 19% 1-year basis for the 7-days ending July 3rd.\nLooking just at June, aggregated BAC card data shows that retail sales ex-autos increased 0.4% month-over-month (mom) seasonally adjusted (SA).\nNote that retail sales ex-autos omits all services with the exception of restaurants and therefore understates the strength in consumer spending given the shift in dollars toward services spending.\nSaid otherwise, the monthly data highlight the rotation from goods to services spending, and BofA's measure of durable goods spending (furniture, electronics and building materials) was a negative contribution to the monthly change in total card spending over the last 3 months while services (restaurants, airlines and lodging) has been a positive contributor all year.\nTo put this into perspective,the gain in services spending over the last three months has offset the drag from durable goods by three-fold.The more frequent weekly data suggest that this continued into July with a particularly notable improvement in travel-related spending through the early summer.\n\nFinally, what does this mean for tomorrow's retail sales data: as a reminder BofA has been flawless in the past 4 months in predicting the actual retail sales print using its credit card data, even as Wall Street consensus has been dead wrong month after month.\nWell, according to the bank, even before the July slowdown, June saw disappointing activity and if the Census Bureau catches down to BofA, tomorrow's headline print will be -0.2%, below the consensus 0.0%, while the ex-autos number will be slightly better than consensus at 0.4% (vs 0.3%) while the core control group which feeds into the GDP calculation will also be just below the 0.3% consensus estimate, or 0.2%.\n\nMore ominously, after printing green every month this year, the 3 month moving average will post its first contraction tomorrow...\n\n... and if the adverse July trends persist, we are about to see a handful of very disappointing retail sales prints in the coming months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":882,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":62,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/170918306"}
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