JR93
2021-06-16
US market always the great investment
Odds favor the Dow being higher at the end of 2021 and 125 years of history supports this<blockquote>道琼斯指数在 2021 年底走高的可能性较大，125 年的历史也支持这一点</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":169478747,"tweetId":"169478747","gmtCreate":1623849536089,"gmtModify":1631890620493,"author":{"id":3567160588479542,"idStr":"3567160588479542","authorId":3567160588479542,"authorIdStr":"3567160588479542","name":"JR93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09000967c3d6b1e608bc9e2703f4bdb1","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>US market always the great investment</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>US market always the great investment</p></body></html>","text":"US market always the great investment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169478747","repostId":1114934376,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114934376","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623823279,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114934376?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 14:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Odds favor the Dow being higher at the end of 2021 and 125 years of history supports this<blockquote>道琼斯指数在 2021 年底走高的可能性较大，125 年的历史也支持这一点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114934376","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Second half of the year tends to be strong for U.S. stocks\nGETTY IMAGES\nOdds are good that the U.S. ","content":"<p>Second half of the year tends to be strong for U.S. stocks</p><p><blockquote>美国股市下半年往往表现强劲</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa48171959ef33c4e5ded6b6a1dac2df\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Odds are good that the U.S. stock market will be higher at the end of December. Don’t get too excited; these odds have nothing to do with how strong the U.S. economy is right now or the stock market’s impressive returns so far this year. In fact, the chance of a winning second half of 2021 would be the same even if stocks were in a bear market or the economy was in recession.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市在12月底很有可能走高。不要太兴奋；这些赔率与美国经济目前的强劲程度或今年迄今为止股市令人印象深刻的回报无关。事实上，即使股市处于熊市或经济衰退，2021年下半年获胜的机会也是一样的。</blockquote></p><p> The reason why has to do with the stock market’s efficiency. Its level at any given point reflects all available information up to that point. For example, if on June 30 the odds were better-than-usual that stocks would be higher in six months’ time, traders would have already bid up prices to take those better odds into account. They wouldn’t wait until later in the year to up their bets.</p><p><blockquote>之所以如此，与股票市场的效率有关。它在任何给定点的水平反映了截至该点的所有可用信息。例如，如果 6 月 30 日股票在 6 个月后走高的几率高于平时，交易员就已经提高了价格，以考虑到这些更好的几率。他们不会等到今年晚些时候才加大赌注。</blockquote></p><p> That’s also true if the odds of a higher market were worse than usual. If traders at the midyear mark knew that the market would most likely be lower in six months’ time, they would sell immediately rather than wait.</p><p><blockquote>如果市场上涨的几率比平时差，情况也是如此。如果处于年中关口的交易者知道六个月后市场很可能会走低，他们就会立即卖出，而不是等待。</blockquote></p><p> The net result of their actions in both cases would that the market’s odds of rising in the second half of the year are more or less the same. Those odds are 66.9% — about two out of three — based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to its creation in the late 1890s.</p><p><blockquote>他们在这两种情况下的行动的最终结果将是，下半年市场上涨的几率大致相同。根据 19 世纪 90 年代末创建的道琼斯工业平均指数，这些几率为 66.9%（约三分之二）。</blockquote></p><p> Notice from the chart below that these odds are largely the same regardless of what has happened with the Dow through mid-year. In those calendar years in which the Dow rose over the first six months, it in the second half rose 72.4% of the time. The increase from 66.9% to 72.4% is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine.</p><p><blockquote>从下图中请注意，无论道琼斯指数在年中发生了什么，这些几率基本上都是相同的。在道琼斯指数前六个月上涨的那些日历年，下半年上涨了72.4%。在统计学家在确定模式是否真实时经常使用的95%置信水平下，从66.9%增加到72.4%并不显著。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/727712f5fc7e02a4333de6df26576024\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Or take the first years of the presidential four-year term, which is the year we’re in now. Over the second halves of those years, the stock market has risen 64.5% of the time. That is not statistically significantly different than the odds that apply to all years.</p><p><blockquote>或者以总统四年任期的头几年为例，也就是我们现在所处的这一年。在那些年的下半年，股市上涨了64.5%。这与适用于所有年份的概率在统计学上没有显著差异。</blockquote></p><p> You may be disappointed that a strong first half doesn’t increase the odds of a strong second half. Yet no one complained a year ago when the identical statistical analysis suggested that there was a two-out-of-three chance the stock market would be higher at the end of 2020. Sure enough, it was: Following a 9.6% decline for the first half of last year, the Dow rose 18.6% in the second.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会失望，因为上半场的强劲表现并不会增加下半场强劲表现的几率。然而，一年前，当相同的统计分析表明股市在 2020 年底上涨的可能性有三分之二时，没有人抱怨。果然是这样：继去年上半年下跌9.6%之后，道琼斯指数下半年上涨18.6%。</blockquote></p><p> It’s because of the market’s efficiency that a buy-and-hold strategy is so hard to beat over the long term. When you deviate from that buy-and-hold approach, you’re in effect betting that you know more and have greater insight than the collective wisdom of millions of other stock market investors. It’s not out of the question that you do, but — as history has shown numerous times — it’s a low probability bet.</p><p><blockquote>正是由于市场的效率，从长远来看，买入并持有的策略很难被击败。当你偏离这种买入并持有的方法时，你实际上是在赌自己比数百万其他股市投资者的集体智慧懂得更多，洞察力更强。你这样做并非不可能，但历史已经无数次表明，这是一个低概率的赌注。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Odds favor the Dow being higher at the end of 2021 and 125 years of history supports this<blockquote>道琼斯指数在 2021 年底走高的可能性较大，125 年的历史也支持这一点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOdds favor the Dow being higher at the end of 2021 and 125 years of history supports this<blockquote>道琼斯指数在 2021 年底走高的可能性较大，125 年的历史也支持这一点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 14:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Second half of the year tends to be strong for U.S. stocks</p><p><blockquote>美国股市下半年往往表现强劲</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa48171959ef33c4e5ded6b6a1dac2df\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Odds are good that the U.S. stock market will be higher at the end of December. Don’t get too excited; these odds have nothing to do with how strong the U.S. economy is right now or the stock market’s impressive returns so far this year. In fact, the chance of a winning second half of 2021 would be the same even if stocks were in a bear market or the economy was in recession.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市在12月底很有可能走高。不要太兴奋；这些赔率与美国经济目前的强劲程度或今年迄今为止股市令人印象深刻的回报无关。事实上，即使股市处于熊市或经济衰退，2021年下半年获胜的机会也是一样的。</blockquote></p><p> The reason why has to do with the stock market’s efficiency. Its level at any given point reflects all available information up to that point. For example, if on June 30 the odds were better-than-usual that stocks would be higher in six months’ time, traders would have already bid up prices to take those better odds into account. They wouldn’t wait until later in the year to up their bets.</p><p><blockquote>之所以如此，与股票市场的效率有关。它在任何给定点的水平反映了截至该点的所有可用信息。例如，如果 6 月 30 日股票在 6 个月后走高的几率高于平时，交易员就已经提高了价格，以考虑到这些更好的几率。他们不会等到今年晚些时候才加大赌注。</blockquote></p><p> That’s also true if the odds of a higher market were worse than usual. If traders at the midyear mark knew that the market would most likely be lower in six months’ time, they would sell immediately rather than wait.</p><p><blockquote>如果市场上涨的几率比平时差，情况也是如此。如果处于年中关口的交易者知道六个月后市场很可能会走低，他们就会立即卖出，而不是等待。</blockquote></p><p> The net result of their actions in both cases would that the market’s odds of rising in the second half of the year are more or less the same. Those odds are 66.9% — about two out of three — based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to its creation in the late 1890s.</p><p><blockquote>他们在这两种情况下的行动的最终结果将是，下半年市场上涨的几率大致相同。根据 19 世纪 90 年代末创建的道琼斯工业平均指数，这些几率为 66.9%（约三分之二）。</blockquote></p><p> Notice from the chart below that these odds are largely the same regardless of what has happened with the Dow through mid-year. In those calendar years in which the Dow rose over the first six months, it in the second half rose 72.4% of the time. The increase from 66.9% to 72.4% is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine.</p><p><blockquote>从下图中请注意，无论道琼斯指数在年中发生了什么，这些几率基本上都是相同的。在道琼斯指数前六个月上涨的那些日历年，下半年上涨了72.4%。在统计学家在确定模式是否真实时经常使用的95%置信水平下，从66.9%增加到72.4%并不显著。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/727712f5fc7e02a4333de6df26576024\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Or take the first years of the presidential four-year term, which is the year we’re in now. Over the second halves of those years, the stock market has risen 64.5% of the time. That is not statistically significantly different than the odds that apply to all years.</p><p><blockquote>或者以总统四年任期的头几年为例，也就是我们现在所处的这一年。在那些年的下半年，股市上涨了64.5%。这与适用于所有年份的概率在统计学上没有显著差异。</blockquote></p><p> You may be disappointed that a strong first half doesn’t increase the odds of a strong second half. Yet no one complained a year ago when the identical statistical analysis suggested that there was a two-out-of-three chance the stock market would be higher at the end of 2020. Sure enough, it was: Following a 9.6% decline for the first half of last year, the Dow rose 18.6% in the second.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会失望，因为上半场的强劲表现并不会增加下半场强劲表现的几率。然而，一年前，当相同的统计分析表明股市在 2020 年底上涨的可能性有三分之二时，没有人抱怨。果然是这样：继去年上半年下跌9.6%之后，道琼斯指数下半年上涨18.6%。</blockquote></p><p> It’s because of the market’s efficiency that a buy-and-hold strategy is so hard to beat over the long term. When you deviate from that buy-and-hold approach, you’re in effect betting that you know more and have greater insight than the collective wisdom of millions of other stock market investors. It’s not out of the question that you do, but — as history has shown numerous times — it’s a low probability bet.</p><p><blockquote>正是由于市场的效率，从长远来看，买入并持有的策略很难被击败。当你偏离这种买入并持有的方法时，你实际上是在赌自己比数百万其他股市投资者的集体智慧懂得更多，洞察力更强。你这样做并非不可能，但历史已经无数次表明，这是一个低概率的赌注。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-odds-of-the-dow-being-higher-at-the-end-of-2021-are-about-two-in-three-11623737505?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-odds-of-the-dow-being-higher-at-the-end-of-2021-are-about-two-in-three-11623737505?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114934376","content_text":"Second half of the year tends to be strong for U.S. stocks\nGETTY IMAGES\nOdds are good that the U.S. stock market will be higher at the end of December. Don’t get too excited; these odds have nothing to do with how strong the U.S. economy is right now or the stock market’s impressive returns so far this year. In fact, the chance of a winning second half of 2021 would be the same even if stocks were in a bear market or the economy was in recession.\nThe reason why has to do with the stock market’s efficiency. Its level at any given point reflects all available information up to that point. For example, if on June 30 the odds were better-than-usual that stocks would be higher in six months’ time, traders would have already bid up prices to take those better odds into account. They wouldn’t wait until later in the year to up their bets.\nThat’s also true if the odds of a higher market were worse than usual. If traders at the midyear mark knew that the market would most likely be lower in six months’ time, they would sell immediately rather than wait.\nThe net result of their actions in both cases would that the market’s odds of rising in the second half of the year are more or less the same. Those odds are 66.9% — about two out of three — based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to its creation in the late 1890s.\nNotice from the chart below that these odds are largely the same regardless of what has happened with the Dow through mid-year. In those calendar years in which the Dow rose over the first six months, it in the second half rose 72.4% of the time. The increase from 66.9% to 72.4% is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine.\n\nOr take the first years of the presidential four-year term, which is the year we’re in now. Over the second halves of those years, the stock market has risen 64.5% of the time. That is not statistically significantly different than the odds that apply to all years.\nYou may be disappointed that a strong first half doesn’t increase the odds of a strong second half. Yet no one complained a year ago when the identical statistical analysis suggested that there was a two-out-of-three chance the stock market would be higher at the end of 2020. Sure enough, it was: Following a 9.6% decline for the first half of last year, the Dow rose 18.6% in the second.\nIt’s because of the market’s efficiency that a buy-and-hold strategy is so hard to beat over the long term. When you deviate from that buy-and-hold approach, you’re in effect betting that you know more and have greater insight than the collective wisdom of millions of other stock market investors. It’s not out of the question that you do, but — as history has shown numerous times — it’s a low probability bet.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2019,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":32,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/169478747"}
精彩评论