JR93
2021-06-16
US market always the great investment
Odds favor the Dow being higher at the end of 2021 and 125 years of history supports this<blockquote>道琼斯指数在2021年底走高的可能性很大，125年的历史支持了这一点</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":169478747,"tweetId":"169478747","gmtCreate":1623849536089,"gmtModify":1631890620493,"author":{"id":3567160588479542,"idStr":"3567160588479542","authorId":3567160588479542,"authorIdStr":"3567160588479542","name":"JR93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09000967c3d6b1e608bc9e2703f4bdb1","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>US market always the great investment</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>US market always the great investment</p></body></html>","text":"US market always the great investment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169478747","repostId":1114934376,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114934376","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623823279,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114934376?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 14:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Odds favor the Dow being higher at the end of 2021 and 125 years of history supports this<blockquote>道琼斯指数在2021年底走高的可能性很大，125年的历史支持了这一点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114934376","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Second half of the year tends to be strong for U.S. stocks\nGETTY IMAGES\nOdds are good that the U.S. ","content":"<p>Second half of the year tends to be strong for U.S. stocks</p><p><blockquote>美股下半年往往走强</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa48171959ef33c4e5ded6b6a1dac2df\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Odds are good that the U.S. stock market will be higher at the end of December. Don’t get too excited; these odds have nothing to do with how strong the U.S. economy is right now or the stock market’s impressive returns so far this year. In fact, the chance of a winning second half of 2021 would be the same even if stocks were in a bear market or the economy was in recession.</p><p><blockquote>12月底美国股市走高的可能性很大。不要太兴奋；这些赔率与美国经济目前的强劲程度或股市今年迄今为止令人印象深刻的回报无关。事实上，即使股市处于熊市或经济衰退，2021年下半年获胜的机会也是一样的。</blockquote></p><p> The reason why has to do with the stock market’s efficiency. Its level at any given point reflects all available information up to that point. For example, if on June 30 the odds were better-than-usual that stocks would be higher in six months’ time, traders would have already bid up prices to take those better odds into account. They wouldn’t wait until later in the year to up their bets.</p><p><blockquote>其原因与股票市场的效率有关。它在任何给定点的水平反映了截至该点的所有可用信息。例如，如果6月30日股市在六个月内走高的可能性比平时更大，交易者就会抬高价格以考虑到这些更大的可能性。他们不会等到今年晚些时候才加大赌注。</blockquote></p><p> That’s also true if the odds of a higher market were worse than usual. If traders at the midyear mark knew that the market would most likely be lower in six months’ time, they would sell immediately rather than wait.</p><p><blockquote>如果市场走高的可能性比平时更差，情况也是如此。如果处于年中关口的交易者知道六个月后市场很可能会走低，他们会立即抛售，而不是等待。</blockquote></p><p> The net result of their actions in both cases would that the market’s odds of rising in the second half of the year are more or less the same. Those odds are 66.9% — about two out of three — based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to its creation in the late 1890s.</p><p><blockquote>他们在这两种情况下的行动的最终结果是，市场在今年下半年上涨的几率大致相同。根据19世纪90年代末创立的道琼斯工业平均指数，这一可能性为66.9%（约三分之二）。</blockquote></p><p> Notice from the chart below that these odds are largely the same regardless of what has happened with the Dow through mid-year. In those calendar years in which the Dow rose over the first six months, it in the second half rose 72.4% of the time. The increase from 66.9% to 72.4% is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，从下图中可以看出，无论道琼斯指数在年中发生了什么变化，这些赔率基本相同。在道琼斯指数前六个月上涨的历年中，下半年有72.4%的时间上涨。从66.9%到72.4%的增长在统计学家在确定模式是否真实时经常使用的95%置信水平上并不显著。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/727712f5fc7e02a4333de6df26576024\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Or take the first years of the presidential four-year term, which is the year we’re in now. Over the second halves of those years, the stock market has risen 64.5% of the time. That is not statistically significantly different than the odds that apply to all years.</p><p><blockquote>或者以总统四年任期的头几年为例，也就是我们现在所处的这一年。在那些年的下半年，股市上涨了64.5%。这与适用于所有年份的几率在统计上没有显著差异。</blockquote></p><p> You may be disappointed that a strong first half doesn’t increase the odds of a strong second half. Yet no one complained a year ago when the identical statistical analysis suggested that there was a two-out-of-three chance the stock market would be higher at the end of 2020. Sure enough, it was: Following a 9.6% decline for the first half of last year, the Dow rose 18.6% in the second.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会失望，强劲的上半场并没有增加强劲下半场的几率。然而，一年前，当相同的统计分析表明股市有三分之二的可能性在2020年底走高时，没有人抱怨。果然如此：继去年上半年下跌9.6%后，道琼斯指数下半年上涨18.6%。</blockquote></p><p> It’s because of the market’s efficiency that a buy-and-hold strategy is so hard to beat over the long term. When you deviate from that buy-and-hold approach, you’re in effect betting that you know more and have greater insight than the collective wisdom of millions of other stock market investors. It’s not out of the question that you do, but — as history has shown numerous times — it’s a low probability bet.</p><p><blockquote>正是由于市场的效率，从长远来看，买入并持有策略很难被击败。当你偏离这种买入并持有的方法时，你实际上是在打赌你比数百万其他股市投资者的集体智慧知道得更多，拥有更强的洞察力。你这样做并非不可能，但是——正如历史多次表明的那样——这是一个低概率的赌注。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Odds favor the Dow being higher at the end of 2021 and 125 years of history supports this<blockquote>道琼斯指数在2021年底走高的可能性很大，125年的历史支持了这一点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOdds favor the Dow being higher at the end of 2021 and 125 years of history supports this<blockquote>道琼斯指数在2021年底走高的可能性很大，125年的历史支持了这一点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 14:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Second half of the year tends to be strong for U.S. stocks</p><p><blockquote>美股下半年往往走强</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa48171959ef33c4e5ded6b6a1dac2df\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Odds are good that the U.S. stock market will be higher at the end of December. Don’t get too excited; these odds have nothing to do with how strong the U.S. economy is right now or the stock market’s impressive returns so far this year. In fact, the chance of a winning second half of 2021 would be the same even if stocks were in a bear market or the economy was in recession.</p><p><blockquote>12月底美国股市走高的可能性很大。不要太兴奋；这些赔率与美国经济目前的强劲程度或股市今年迄今为止令人印象深刻的回报无关。事实上，即使股市处于熊市或经济衰退，2021年下半年获胜的机会也是一样的。</blockquote></p><p> The reason why has to do with the stock market’s efficiency. Its level at any given point reflects all available information up to that point. For example, if on June 30 the odds were better-than-usual that stocks would be higher in six months’ time, traders would have already bid up prices to take those better odds into account. They wouldn’t wait until later in the year to up their bets.</p><p><blockquote>其原因与股票市场的效率有关。它在任何给定点的水平反映了截至该点的所有可用信息。例如，如果6月30日股市在六个月内走高的可能性比平时更大，交易者就会抬高价格以考虑到这些更大的可能性。他们不会等到今年晚些时候才加大赌注。</blockquote></p><p> That’s also true if the odds of a higher market were worse than usual. If traders at the midyear mark knew that the market would most likely be lower in six months’ time, they would sell immediately rather than wait.</p><p><blockquote>如果市场走高的可能性比平时更差，情况也是如此。如果处于年中关口的交易者知道六个月后市场很可能会走低，他们会立即抛售，而不是等待。</blockquote></p><p> The net result of their actions in both cases would that the market’s odds of rising in the second half of the year are more or less the same. Those odds are 66.9% — about two out of three — based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to its creation in the late 1890s.</p><p><blockquote>他们在这两种情况下的行动的最终结果是，市场在今年下半年上涨的几率大致相同。根据19世纪90年代末创立的道琼斯工业平均指数，这一可能性为66.9%（约三分之二）。</blockquote></p><p> Notice from the chart below that these odds are largely the same regardless of what has happened with the Dow through mid-year. In those calendar years in which the Dow rose over the first six months, it in the second half rose 72.4% of the time. The increase from 66.9% to 72.4% is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，从下图中可以看出，无论道琼斯指数在年中发生了什么变化，这些赔率基本相同。在道琼斯指数前六个月上涨的历年中，下半年有72.4%的时间上涨。从66.9%到72.4%的增长在统计学家在确定模式是否真实时经常使用的95%置信水平上并不显著。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/727712f5fc7e02a4333de6df26576024\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Or take the first years of the presidential four-year term, which is the year we’re in now. Over the second halves of those years, the stock market has risen 64.5% of the time. That is not statistically significantly different than the odds that apply to all years.</p><p><blockquote>或者以总统四年任期的头几年为例，也就是我们现在所处的这一年。在那些年的下半年，股市上涨了64.5%。这与适用于所有年份的几率在统计上没有显著差异。</blockquote></p><p> You may be disappointed that a strong first half doesn’t increase the odds of a strong second half. Yet no one complained a year ago when the identical statistical analysis suggested that there was a two-out-of-three chance the stock market would be higher at the end of 2020. Sure enough, it was: Following a 9.6% decline for the first half of last year, the Dow rose 18.6% in the second.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会失望，强劲的上半场并没有增加强劲下半场的几率。然而，一年前，当相同的统计分析表明股市有三分之二的可能性在2020年底走高时，没有人抱怨。果然如此：继去年上半年下跌9.6%后，道琼斯指数下半年上涨18.6%。</blockquote></p><p> It’s because of the market’s efficiency that a buy-and-hold strategy is so hard to beat over the long term. When you deviate from that buy-and-hold approach, you’re in effect betting that you know more and have greater insight than the collective wisdom of millions of other stock market investors. It’s not out of the question that you do, but — as history has shown numerous times — it’s a low probability bet.</p><p><blockquote>正是由于市场的效率，从长远来看，买入并持有策略很难被击败。当你偏离这种买入并持有的方法时，你实际上是在打赌你比数百万其他股市投资者的集体智慧知道得更多，拥有更强的洞察力。你这样做并非不可能，但是——正如历史多次表明的那样——这是一个低概率的赌注。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-odds-of-the-dow-being-higher-at-the-end-of-2021-are-about-two-in-three-11623737505?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-odds-of-the-dow-being-higher-at-the-end-of-2021-are-about-two-in-three-11623737505?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114934376","content_text":"Second half of the year tends to be strong for U.S. stocks\nGETTY IMAGES\nOdds are good that the U.S. stock market will be higher at the end of December. Don’t get too excited; these odds have nothing to do with how strong the U.S. economy is right now or the stock market’s impressive returns so far this year. In fact, the chance of a winning second half of 2021 would be the same even if stocks were in a bear market or the economy was in recession.\nThe reason why has to do with the stock market’s efficiency. Its level at any given point reflects all available information up to that point. For example, if on June 30 the odds were better-than-usual that stocks would be higher in six months’ time, traders would have already bid up prices to take those better odds into account. They wouldn’t wait until later in the year to up their bets.\nThat’s also true if the odds of a higher market were worse than usual. If traders at the midyear mark knew that the market would most likely be lower in six months’ time, they would sell immediately rather than wait.\nThe net result of their actions in both cases would that the market’s odds of rising in the second half of the year are more or less the same. Those odds are 66.9% — about two out of three — based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to its creation in the late 1890s.\nNotice from the chart below that these odds are largely the same regardless of what has happened with the Dow through mid-year. In those calendar years in which the Dow rose over the first six months, it in the second half rose 72.4% of the time. The increase from 66.9% to 72.4% is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine.\n\nOr take the first years of the presidential four-year term, which is the year we’re in now. Over the second halves of those years, the stock market has risen 64.5% of the time. That is not statistically significantly different than the odds that apply to all years.\nYou may be disappointed that a strong first half doesn’t increase the odds of a strong second half. Yet no one complained a year ago when the identical statistical analysis suggested that there was a two-out-of-three chance the stock market would be higher at the end of 2020. Sure enough, it was: Following a 9.6% decline for the first half of last year, the Dow rose 18.6% in the second.\nIt’s because of the market’s efficiency that a buy-and-hold strategy is so hard to beat over the long term. When you deviate from that buy-and-hold approach, you’re in effect betting that you know more and have greater insight than the collective wisdom of millions of other stock market investors. It’s not out of the question that you do, but — as history has shown numerous times — it’s a low probability bet.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1369,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":32,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/169478747"}
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