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2021-06-16

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Is Fisker The Next Short Squeeze?<blockquote>菲斯克是下一个轧空者吗？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":169393877,"tweetId":"169393877","gmtCreate":1623816089599,"gmtModify":1634027657337,"author":{"id":3586767743717067,"idStr":"3586767743717067","authorId":3586767743717067,"authorIdStr":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Commented&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Commented&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Commented","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169393877","repostId":1141264092,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141264092","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623811561,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141264092?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 10:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Fisker The Next Short Squeeze?<blockquote>菲斯克是下一个轧空者吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141264092","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago.\nWith that sort of move, caution is wa","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>FSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago.</li> <li>With that sort of move, caution is warranted on further gains.</li> <li>New fundamental developments lay out the future path for Fisker.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8cfc5757fb9bcd2dad4f529e916092c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\">jonathanfilskov-photography/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>自从我一个月前的看涨看涨期权以来，FSR 上涨了 72%。</li><li>有了这样的举动，就有必要对进一步上涨保持谨慎。</li><li>新的基本发展为菲斯克规划了未来的道路。</li></ul>jonathanfilskov-摄影/iStock via Getty Images</blockquote> The electric vehicle space has been, let’s say, volatile over the past year or so. OG&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) continues to dwarf all other comers in terms of market cap, but there are numerous new competitors, many of which are so new, they don’t even have any revenue yet. One such example is the reincarnated&nbsp;Fisker Inc.(FSR), which is founder Henrik Fisker’s second go at making an electric automaker.<blockquote>可以说，在过去一年左右的时间里，电动汽车领域一直不稳定。和特斯拉(特斯拉）在市值方面继续让所有其他竞争对手相形见绌，但新的竞争对手不胜枚举，其中许多竞争对手还很新，甚至还没有任何收入。转世就是这样一个例子菲斯克公司。(FSR)，这是创始人亨里克-菲斯克（Henrik Fisker）第二次尝试创建电动汽车制造商。</blockquote> I wrote apieceon Fisker about a month ago when the share price was $10.69, saying it was a great time to buy. Shares are 72% higher than that today – amassivemove in the space of four weeks – but such is the nature of the game in electric vehicles. Up 72%, the big question is, do you continue to hold? In this case, I think the answer is “no”, but with some caveats.<blockquote>大约一个月前，当股价为 10.69 美元时，我给 apieceon Fisker 写了一封信，说现在是买入的好时机。股价比今天上涨 72% – a巨大的在四周内移动——但这就是电动汽车的本质。上涨72%，最大的问题是，你会继续持有吗？在这种情况下，我认为答案是 “否”，但有一些注意事项。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b7e34a03823eba6302e3194baa808ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\">Source: StockCharts<blockquote>资料来源：股票图表</blockquote> First, let’s take a look at the chart, which highlights just how volatile this thing really is. Prior support in the low-$14s was lost during the last downturn, and the stock eventually bottomed at $9.61. Since then, shares havedoubled, and we’ve seen a complete reset in terms of sentiment for Fisker. One thing you must understand is that Fisker and other zero-revenue EV makers trade on momentum and sentiment rather than fundamentals, so you must be nimble.<blockquote>首先，让我们来看看图表，它突出了这个东西到底有多么不稳定。此前14美元低点的支撑位在上次低迷期间失去，该股最终触底9.61美元。此后，股票双倍我们看到菲斯克的情绪完全重置。你必须明白的一件事是，菲斯克和其他零收入电动汽车制造商的交易取决于势头和情绪，而不是基本面，所以你必须灵活。</blockquote> I would look for that low-$14 area to hold as support on the next pullback, but I’ll also note that it isn’t all that strong, having failed miserably last time there was a selloff. But if the stock is going to bounce, that will likely be the area it will happen.<blockquote>我会将 14 美元的低点区域作为下一次回调的支撑，但我也会注意到，该区域并不那么强劲，上次抛售时曾惨败。但如果股票要反弹，那很可能就是反弹的领域。</blockquote> I’ll also note the PPO is very overbought, and is very close to the same levels where prior rallies have lost steam and eventually rolled over. That means the odds of a further rally from here are greatly diminishing, as the bulls have made a Herculean push already, and there are signs the push is ending, at least temporarily.<blockquote>我还要指出，PPO 非常超买，非常接近之前反弹失去动力并最终翻盘的水平。这意味着从这里进一步反弹的可能性正在大大降低，因为多头已经做出了巨大的推动，而且有迹象表明推动正在结束，至少是暂时的。</blockquote> The 14-day RSI is showing similar behavior, as it is rolling over after reaching extreme overbought conditions. The point of all of this is that this stock has doubled in the space of a month, and the rally looks tired. I don’t see a reasonable path meaningfully higher here, but in the EV space, anything can happen. But the bottom line is that the rally looks tired to me, and I think the most prudent course of action is to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry.<blockquote>14 天 RSI 也表现出类似的行为，因为它在达到极端超买条件后正在翻转。这一切的要点是，这只股票在一个月的时间里翻了一番，而且涨势看起来很疲惫。我在这里看不到一条合理的更高路径，但在电动汽车领域，任何事情都可能发生。但底线是，反弹在我看来很疲惫，我认为最谨慎的做法是获利了结并等待更低的重新进入。</blockquote> New developments<blockquote>新发展</blockquote> There have been some interesting developments since my last update on Fisker, and ones that have the potential to drive the share price over time.<blockquote>自从我上次更新 Fisker 以来，出现了一些有趣的进展，并且随着时间的推移，这些进展有可能推动股价。</blockquote> First up, short interest in Fisker is soaring, and after the numerous highly-shorted stocks we’ve seen go to the moon this year, that’s worth noting. Below is Fisker’s short interest for reference.<blockquote>首先，对 Fisker 的空头兴趣正在飙升，在今年我们看到的众多高度做空的股票纷纷下跌之后，这一点值得注意。以下是菲斯克的空头利息，供参考。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd732eb0644d9370ff55d207057d6485\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\">Source: YCharts<blockquote>资料来源：YCharts</blockquote> Short interest has roughly quadrupled since February, and is rising all the time. The kinds of rallies that we’ve seen in Fisker can cause short squeezes because shorts on the wrong side of a parabolic rally can often panic buy to cover their shorts, leading to a short squeeze.<blockquote>自二月份以来，空头兴趣大约翻了两番，并且一直在上升。我们在菲斯克看到的那种反弹会导致空头挤压，因为抛物线反弹反面的空头往往会恐慌性买入来弥补空头，从而导致空头挤压。</blockquote> Fisker’s current rally lacks the volume of a short squeeze, so I firmly believe this rally is not a result of high short interest, but is instead buyers just buying the stock. If shorts throw in the towel, Fisker could squeeze a lot higher than it is today. To be clear, I’m not saying Fisker is the next short squeeze, but what I am saying is that 45M shares short is roughly seven days’ worth of normal volume, so it’s significant. I certainly also would not short Fisker at these levels for that reason.<blockquote>菲斯克目前的反弹缺乏空头挤压的成交量，因此我坚信这次反弹不是空头兴趣高的结果，而是买家刚刚买入股票的结果。如果空头认输，菲斯克的股价可能会比今天高得多。需要明确的是，我并不是说菲斯克是下一个做空对象，但我想说的是，4500 万股的做空量大约相当于七天的正常成交量，所以这意义重大。出于这个原因，我当然也不会在这些水平上做空菲斯克。</blockquote> In short, I do not believe Fisker is the next short squeeze candidate because squeezes usually occur when a stock is at or near a top, and thus most or all short sellers are underwater. Fisker isn't anywhere close to its former high, and given how tired the rally looks today, I see the odds of that occurring as low.<blockquote>简而言之，我不认为菲斯克是下一个空头挤压候选人，因为挤压通常发生在股票处于或接近顶部时，因此大多数或所有卖空者都处于水下。菲斯克距离之前的高点还很远，考虑到今天的反弹看起来多么疲惫，我认为这种情况发生的可能性很低。</blockquote> From a fundamental perspective, Fisker continues to make progress towards making production a reality of its Ocean SUV, as evidenced in itsQ1 report. The company ended the quarter with $985 million in cash, which is good enough for about 10 quarters at the current run rate; in Q1, the company spent $29 million on operating activities, and $66 million in capex. The company also said the majority of the Ocean has been sourced, which is improving cost visibility as prior questions have become answers.<blockquote>从基本面角度来看，菲斯克在实现其海洋SUV的生产方面继续取得进展，正如其第一季度报告所证明的那样。该公司本季度末拥有 9.85 亿美元现金，按照目前的运行速度，这足够维持大约 10 个季度；第一季度，该公司在运营活动上花费了 2900 万美元，在资本支出上花费了 6600 万美元。该公司还表示，大部分海洋都是采购的，这提高了成本的可见性，因为之前的问题已经成为答案。</blockquote> I don’t think Fisker has unlimited runway in terms of cash, but it should have enough to get to production of the Ocean, which is still slated for late this year, or early next year. That’s very important because Fisker needs the cash to start rolling in fairly soon, or further capital raises will be necessary.<blockquote>我不认为菲斯克在现金方面有无限的发展空间，但它应该有足够的资金来制作《海洋》，该片仍定于今年年底或明年初上映。这一点非常重要，因为菲斯克需要现金尽快开始滚动，否则就需要进一步融资。</blockquote> Fisker says it has 16k reservations for Oceans at this point, but as we know, reservations for new vehicles are very low cost for the consumer, and don’t represent an obligation to buy. Given this, I take them with a grain of salt. But on the plus side, Fisker has done essentially no advertising, and I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of Americans have no idea what Fisker is. That indicates that there may be some legs to the Ocean, but we’ll have to wait and see.<blockquote>Fisker 表示，目前该公司已为 Oceans 预订了 1.6 万辆，但据我们所知，预订新车对消费者来说成本非常低，并不构成购买的义务。有鉴于此，我对它们持保留态度。但从好的方面来看，菲斯克基本上没有做过广告，我敢打赌，绝大多数美国人根本不知道菲斯克是什么。这表明可能会有一些通往海洋的腿，但我们还得拭目以待。</blockquote> Perhaps most importantly, Fisker has an ambitious plan to produce a sub-$30k EV, currently calledProject PEAR. The company has signed Foxconn to make the vehicle, which won’t be available for another two years or so. But it represents another step towards Fisker becoming more mainstream, and if the company can execute, it could grab big chunks of market share. I’ll caveat that producing sub-$30k EVs is no small task because the batteries are very expensive. This is why others have struggled to do the same thing, and I have no reason to think Fisker won’t struggle as well. However, if the Ocean is a success, and provides the cash to develop PEAR, Fisker could be off to the races. PEAR is just an idea at this point, so don’t get too excited, but Fisker certainly has grand plans.<blockquote>也许最重要的是，菲斯克有一个雄心勃勃的计划来生产一款售价低于 3 万美元的电动汽车，目前称为 Project PEAR。该公司已与富士康签约生产这款车，但这款车还要两年左右才能上市。但这代表着菲斯克走向更加主流的又一步，如果该公司能够执行，它可能会抢占大块市场份额。我要提醒的是，生产低于 3 万美元的电动汽车并非易事，因为电池非常昂贵。这就是为什么其他人都在努力做同样的事情，我没有理由认为菲斯克不会也在努力。然而，如果海洋是成功的，并提供了开发梨的现金，菲斯克可能会去参加比赛。PEAR 目前只是一个想法，所以不要太兴奋，但 Fisker 肯定有宏伟的计划。</blockquote> Valuation remains mixed<blockquote>估值仍然好坏参半</blockquote> The tricky thing about valuing startups is that the targets – whether it is revenue or earnings – move all the time. In Fisker’s case, it is apparent that some targets were probably a bit optimistic, especially for revenue.<blockquote>对初创公司进行估值的棘手之处在于，目标——无论是收入还是盈利——一直在变化。就菲斯克而言，很明显，有些目标可能有点乐观，尤其是在收入方面。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52fe37a0a60e26d5c3aba548bd4b0b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\">Source:Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> Estimates for the out years have come up slightly in the past month – likely due to analysts building PEAR into projections – but in the past six months, estimates are off by a third in some cases. You have to remember if you buy this stock that Fisker isn’t slated to receiveanyrevenue until next year, and even then, progress will start slowly. But if Fisker does achieve $8+ billion in revenue by 2025, buying the stock today will have proven a prescient move. There are just so many steps between now and then that the ride will be extremely volatile to say the least.<blockquote>过去一个月，对未来几年的预测略有上升——可能是由于分析师将 PEAR 纳入预测——但在过去六个月中，在某些情况下，预测偏离了三分之一。你必须记住，如果你购买了菲斯克不打算收到的这只股票任何收入直到明年，即便如此，进展也将缓慢开始。但如果菲斯克到 2025 年确实实现 80 多亿美元的收入，那么今天购买该股票将被证明是一个有先见之明的举动。从现在到那时有太多的步骤，至少可以说，旅程将非常不稳定。</blockquote> That is illustrated nicely by EPS estimates.<blockquote>每股收益估计很好地说明了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730bfe2971ecbf2c150c244c474bd7c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\">Source:Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> EPS is almost certainly going to be negative for at least this year and next year, but if production ramps the way it should for Ocean, Fisker has an outside chance at hitting breakeven in 2023. If scale is achieved, we could see very strong EPS, with 2025 current at $3.72 per share, and 2026 at $4.95. If Ocean succeeds, and Fisker can produce PEAR in sufficient numbers, these estimates could become reality. But you can see the consternation among market participants in that a stock with $5 in EPS five years from now is trading for $18,afterdoubling in a month. In other words, the share price is pricing in the fact that these estimates are simply guesses at this point. Said another way, if there was some certainty around $5 in EPS in 2026, it would be reasonable to see a multiple of 10 or 12 on that number, or a share price of $50 to $60. We're at a small fraction of that, which is pricing in the massive uncertainty of the company achieving these results.<blockquote>几乎可以肯定，至少今年和明年的每股收益将为负，但如果 Ocean 的产量像应有的那样增加，Fisker 就有机会在 2023 年实现盈亏平衡。如果实现规模，我们可能会看到非常强劲的每股收益，2025 年目前为每股 3.72 美元，2026 年为每股 4.95 美元。如果 Ocean 取得成功，并且 Fisker 能够生产足够数量的梨，这些估计可能会成为现实。但你可以看到市场参与者的恐慌，因为五年后每股收益为 5 美元的股票现在交易价格为 18 美元，之后一个月翻倍。换句话说，股价正在定价，因为这些估计在这一点上只是猜测。换句话说，如果 2026 年每股收益在 5 美元左右有一定的确定性，那么该数字的倍数是 10 或 12，或者股价在 50 至 60 美元之间是合理的。我们只占其中的一小部分，这是对公司实现这些结果的巨大不确定性进行定价。</blockquote> Final thoughts<blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote> The bottom line on Fisker is that the company is so far from making any sort of meaningful revenue – and even further from profits – that it is mostly a momentum trade as a result. The stock has doubled in the past month, and I see cracks in the rally’s strength, so I think it is once again time to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry price.<blockquote>菲斯克的底线是，该公司远未产生任何有意义的收入，甚至更未产生利润，因此它主要是一种动量交易。该股在过去一个月里翻了一番，我看到了反弹的强度出现了裂缝，因此我认为又到了获利了结并等待更低的重新入场价格的时候了。</blockquote> I think Fisker has the potential to be a winner in the long-term, but the path to get there is fraught with obstacles. I once again see potential and current price fairly balanced, and for that reason, I’m back to neutral on Fisker.<blockquote>我认为菲斯克有潜力成为长期赢家，但实现这一目标的道路充满了障碍。我再次看到潜在价格和当前价格相当平衡，因此，我对菲斯克的看法又回到了中性。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Fisker The Next Short Squeeze?<blockquote>菲斯克是下一个轧空者吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Fisker The Next Short Squeeze?<blockquote>菲斯克是下一个轧空者吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-16 10:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>FSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago.</li> <li>With that sort of move, caution is warranted on further gains.</li> <li>New fundamental developments lay out the future path for Fisker.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8cfc5757fb9bcd2dad4f529e916092c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\">jonathanfilskov-photography/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>自从我一个月前的看涨看涨期权以来，FSR 上涨了 72%。</li><li>有了这样的举动，就有必要对进一步上涨保持谨慎。</li><li>新的基本发展为菲斯克规划了未来的道路。</li></ul>jonathanfilskov-摄影/iStock via Getty Images</blockquote> The electric vehicle space has been, let’s say, volatile over the past year or so. OG&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) continues to dwarf all other comers in terms of market cap, but there are numerous new competitors, many of which are so new, they don’t even have any revenue yet. One such example is the reincarnated&nbsp;Fisker Inc.(FSR), which is founder Henrik Fisker’s second go at making an electric automaker.<blockquote>可以说，在过去一年左右的时间里，电动汽车领域一直不稳定。和特斯拉(特斯拉）在市值方面继续让所有其他竞争对手相形见绌，但新的竞争对手不胜枚举，其中许多竞争对手还很新，甚至还没有任何收入。转世就是这样一个例子菲斯克公司。(FSR)，这是创始人亨里克-菲斯克（Henrik Fisker）第二次尝试创建电动汽车制造商。</blockquote> I wrote apieceon Fisker about a month ago when the share price was $10.69, saying it was a great time to buy. Shares are 72% higher than that today – amassivemove in the space of four weeks – but such is the nature of the game in electric vehicles. Up 72%, the big question is, do you continue to hold? In this case, I think the answer is “no”, but with some caveats.<blockquote>大约一个月前，当股价为 10.69 美元时，我给 apieceon Fisker 写了一封信，说现在是买入的好时机。股价比今天上涨 72% – a巨大的在四周内移动——但这就是电动汽车的本质。上涨72%，最大的问题是，你会继续持有吗？在这种情况下，我认为答案是 “否”，但有一些注意事项。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b7e34a03823eba6302e3194baa808ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\">Source: StockCharts<blockquote>资料来源：股票图表</blockquote> First, let’s take a look at the chart, which highlights just how volatile this thing really is. Prior support in the low-$14s was lost during the last downturn, and the stock eventually bottomed at $9.61. Since then, shares havedoubled, and we’ve seen a complete reset in terms of sentiment for Fisker. One thing you must understand is that Fisker and other zero-revenue EV makers trade on momentum and sentiment rather than fundamentals, so you must be nimble.<blockquote>首先，让我们来看看图表，它突出了这个东西到底有多么不稳定。此前14美元低点的支撑位在上次低迷期间失去，该股最终触底9.61美元。此后，股票双倍我们看到菲斯克的情绪完全重置。你必须明白的一件事是，菲斯克和其他零收入电动汽车制造商的交易取决于势头和情绪，而不是基本面，所以你必须灵活。</blockquote> I would look for that low-$14 area to hold as support on the next pullback, but I’ll also note that it isn’t all that strong, having failed miserably last time there was a selloff. But if the stock is going to bounce, that will likely be the area it will happen.<blockquote>我会将 14 美元的低点区域作为下一次回调的支撑，但我也会注意到，该区域并不那么强劲，上次抛售时曾惨败。但如果股票要反弹，那很可能就是反弹的领域。</blockquote> I’ll also note the PPO is very overbought, and is very close to the same levels where prior rallies have lost steam and eventually rolled over. That means the odds of a further rally from here are greatly diminishing, as the bulls have made a Herculean push already, and there are signs the push is ending, at least temporarily.<blockquote>我还要指出，PPO 非常超买，非常接近之前反弹失去动力并最终翻盘的水平。这意味着从这里进一步反弹的可能性正在大大降低，因为多头已经做出了巨大的推动，而且有迹象表明推动正在结束，至少是暂时的。</blockquote> The 14-day RSI is showing similar behavior, as it is rolling over after reaching extreme overbought conditions. The point of all of this is that this stock has doubled in the space of a month, and the rally looks tired. I don’t see a reasonable path meaningfully higher here, but in the EV space, anything can happen. But the bottom line is that the rally looks tired to me, and I think the most prudent course of action is to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry.<blockquote>14 天 RSI 也表现出类似的行为，因为它在达到极端超买条件后正在翻转。这一切的要点是，这只股票在一个月的时间里翻了一番，而且涨势看起来很疲惫。我在这里看不到一条合理的更高路径，但在电动汽车领域，任何事情都可能发生。但底线是，反弹在我看来很疲惫，我认为最谨慎的做法是获利了结并等待更低的重新进入。</blockquote> New developments<blockquote>新发展</blockquote> There have been some interesting developments since my last update on Fisker, and ones that have the potential to drive the share price over time.<blockquote>自从我上次更新 Fisker 以来，出现了一些有趣的进展，并且随着时间的推移，这些进展有可能推动股价。</blockquote> First up, short interest in Fisker is soaring, and after the numerous highly-shorted stocks we’ve seen go to the moon this year, that’s worth noting. Below is Fisker’s short interest for reference.<blockquote>首先，对 Fisker 的空头兴趣正在飙升，在今年我们看到的众多高度做空的股票纷纷下跌之后，这一点值得注意。以下是菲斯克的空头利息，供参考。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd732eb0644d9370ff55d207057d6485\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\">Source: YCharts<blockquote>资料来源：YCharts</blockquote> Short interest has roughly quadrupled since February, and is rising all the time. The kinds of rallies that we’ve seen in Fisker can cause short squeezes because shorts on the wrong side of a parabolic rally can often panic buy to cover their shorts, leading to a short squeeze.<blockquote>自二月份以来，空头兴趣大约翻了两番，并且一直在上升。我们在菲斯克看到的那种反弹会导致空头挤压，因为抛物线反弹反面的空头往往会恐慌性买入来弥补空头，从而导致空头挤压。</blockquote> Fisker’s current rally lacks the volume of a short squeeze, so I firmly believe this rally is not a result of high short interest, but is instead buyers just buying the stock. If shorts throw in the towel, Fisker could squeeze a lot higher than it is today. To be clear, I’m not saying Fisker is the next short squeeze, but what I am saying is that 45M shares short is roughly seven days’ worth of normal volume, so it’s significant. I certainly also would not short Fisker at these levels for that reason.<blockquote>菲斯克目前的反弹缺乏空头挤压的成交量，因此我坚信这次反弹不是空头兴趣高的结果，而是买家刚刚买入股票的结果。如果空头认输，菲斯克的股价可能会比今天高得多。需要明确的是，我并不是说菲斯克是下一个做空对象，但我想说的是，4500 万股的做空量大约相当于七天的正常成交量，所以这意义重大。出于这个原因，我当然也不会在这些水平上做空菲斯克。</blockquote> In short, I do not believe Fisker is the next short squeeze candidate because squeezes usually occur when a stock is at or near a top, and thus most or all short sellers are underwater. Fisker isn't anywhere close to its former high, and given how tired the rally looks today, I see the odds of that occurring as low.<blockquote>简而言之，我不认为菲斯克是下一个空头挤压候选人，因为挤压通常发生在股票处于或接近顶部时，因此大多数或所有卖空者都处于水下。菲斯克距离之前的高点还很远，考虑到今天的反弹看起来多么疲惫，我认为这种情况发生的可能性很低。</blockquote> From a fundamental perspective, Fisker continues to make progress towards making production a reality of its Ocean SUV, as evidenced in itsQ1 report. The company ended the quarter with $985 million in cash, which is good enough for about 10 quarters at the current run rate; in Q1, the company spent $29 million on operating activities, and $66 million in capex. The company also said the majority of the Ocean has been sourced, which is improving cost visibility as prior questions have become answers.<blockquote>从基本面角度来看，菲斯克在实现其海洋SUV的生产方面继续取得进展，正如其第一季度报告所证明的那样。该公司本季度末拥有 9.85 亿美元现金，按照目前的运行速度，这足够维持大约 10 个季度；第一季度，该公司在运营活动上花费了 2900 万美元，在资本支出上花费了 6600 万美元。该公司还表示，大部分海洋都是采购的，这提高了成本的可见性，因为之前的问题已经成为答案。</blockquote> I don’t think Fisker has unlimited runway in terms of cash, but it should have enough to get to production of the Ocean, which is still slated for late this year, or early next year. That’s very important because Fisker needs the cash to start rolling in fairly soon, or further capital raises will be necessary.<blockquote>我不认为菲斯克在现金方面有无限的发展空间，但它应该有足够的资金来制作《海洋》，该片仍定于今年年底或明年初上映。这一点非常重要，因为菲斯克需要现金尽快开始滚动，否则就需要进一步融资。</blockquote> Fisker says it has 16k reservations for Oceans at this point, but as we know, reservations for new vehicles are very low cost for the consumer, and don’t represent an obligation to buy. Given this, I take them with a grain of salt. But on the plus side, Fisker has done essentially no advertising, and I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of Americans have no idea what Fisker is. That indicates that there may be some legs to the Ocean, but we’ll have to wait and see.<blockquote>Fisker 表示，目前该公司已为 Oceans 预订了 1.6 万辆，但据我们所知，预订新车对消费者来说成本非常低，并不构成购买的义务。有鉴于此，我对它们持保留态度。但从好的方面来看，菲斯克基本上没有做过广告，我敢打赌，绝大多数美国人根本不知道菲斯克是什么。这表明可能会有一些通往海洋的腿，但我们还得拭目以待。</blockquote> Perhaps most importantly, Fisker has an ambitious plan to produce a sub-$30k EV, currently calledProject PEAR. The company has signed Foxconn to make the vehicle, which won’t be available for another two years or so. But it represents another step towards Fisker becoming more mainstream, and if the company can execute, it could grab big chunks of market share. I’ll caveat that producing sub-$30k EVs is no small task because the batteries are very expensive. This is why others have struggled to do the same thing, and I have no reason to think Fisker won’t struggle as well. However, if the Ocean is a success, and provides the cash to develop PEAR, Fisker could be off to the races. PEAR is just an idea at this point, so don’t get too excited, but Fisker certainly has grand plans.<blockquote>也许最重要的是，菲斯克有一个雄心勃勃的计划来生产一款售价低于 3 万美元的电动汽车，目前称为 Project PEAR。该公司已与富士康签约生产这款车，但这款车还要两年左右才能上市。但这代表着菲斯克走向更加主流的又一步，如果该公司能够执行，它可能会抢占大块市场份额。我要提醒的是，生产低于 3 万美元的电动汽车并非易事，因为电池非常昂贵。这就是为什么其他人都在努力做同样的事情，我没有理由认为菲斯克不会也在努力。然而，如果海洋是成功的，并提供了开发梨的现金，菲斯克可能会去参加比赛。PEAR 目前只是一个想法，所以不要太兴奋，但 Fisker 肯定有宏伟的计划。</blockquote> Valuation remains mixed<blockquote>估值仍然好坏参半</blockquote> The tricky thing about valuing startups is that the targets – whether it is revenue or earnings – move all the time. In Fisker’s case, it is apparent that some targets were probably a bit optimistic, especially for revenue.<blockquote>对初创公司进行估值的棘手之处在于，目标——无论是收入还是盈利——一直在变化。就菲斯克而言，很明显，有些目标可能有点乐观，尤其是在收入方面。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52fe37a0a60e26d5c3aba548bd4b0b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\">Source:Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> Estimates for the out years have come up slightly in the past month – likely due to analysts building PEAR into projections – but in the past six months, estimates are off by a third in some cases. You have to remember if you buy this stock that Fisker isn’t slated to receiveanyrevenue until next year, and even then, progress will start slowly. But if Fisker does achieve $8+ billion in revenue by 2025, buying the stock today will have proven a prescient move. There are just so many steps between now and then that the ride will be extremely volatile to say the least.<blockquote>过去一个月，对未来几年的预测略有上升——可能是由于分析师将 PEAR 纳入预测——但在过去六个月中，在某些情况下，预测偏离了三分之一。你必须记住，如果你购买了菲斯克不打算收到的这只股票任何收入直到明年，即便如此，进展也将缓慢开始。但如果菲斯克到 2025 年确实实现 80 多亿美元的收入，那么今天购买该股票将被证明是一个有先见之明的举动。从现在到那时有太多的步骤，至少可以说，旅程将非常不稳定。</blockquote> That is illustrated nicely by EPS estimates.<blockquote>每股收益估计很好地说明了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730bfe2971ecbf2c150c244c474bd7c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\">Source:Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> EPS is almost certainly going to be negative for at least this year and next year, but if production ramps the way it should for Ocean, Fisker has an outside chance at hitting breakeven in 2023. If scale is achieved, we could see very strong EPS, with 2025 current at $3.72 per share, and 2026 at $4.95. If Ocean succeeds, and Fisker can produce PEAR in sufficient numbers, these estimates could become reality. But you can see the consternation among market participants in that a stock with $5 in EPS five years from now is trading for $18,afterdoubling in a month. In other words, the share price is pricing in the fact that these estimates are simply guesses at this point. Said another way, if there was some certainty around $5 in EPS in 2026, it would be reasonable to see a multiple of 10 or 12 on that number, or a share price of $50 to $60. We're at a small fraction of that, which is pricing in the massive uncertainty of the company achieving these results.<blockquote>几乎可以肯定，至少今年和明年的每股收益将为负，但如果 Ocean 的产量像应有的那样增加，Fisker 就有机会在 2023 年实现盈亏平衡。如果实现规模，我们可能会看到非常强劲的每股收益，2025 年目前为每股 3.72 美元，2026 年为每股 4.95 美元。如果 Ocean 取得成功，并且 Fisker 能够生产足够数量的梨，这些估计可能会成为现实。但你可以看到市场参与者的恐慌，因为五年后每股收益为 5 美元的股票现在交易价格为 18 美元，之后一个月翻倍。换句话说，股价正在定价，因为这些估计在这一点上只是猜测。换句话说，如果 2026 年每股收益在 5 美元左右有一定的确定性，那么该数字的倍数是 10 或 12，或者股价在 50 至 60 美元之间是合理的。我们只占其中的一小部分，这是对公司实现这些结果的巨大不确定性进行定价。</blockquote> Final thoughts<blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote> The bottom line on Fisker is that the company is so far from making any sort of meaningful revenue – and even further from profits – that it is mostly a momentum trade as a result. The stock has doubled in the past month, and I see cracks in the rally’s strength, so I think it is once again time to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry price.<blockquote>菲斯克的底线是，该公司远未产生任何有意义的收入，甚至更未产生利润，因此它主要是一种动量交易。该股在过去一个月里翻了一番，我看到了反弹的强度出现了裂缝，因此我认为又到了获利了结并等待更低的重新入场价格的时候了。</blockquote> I think Fisker has the potential to be a winner in the long-term, but the path to get there is fraught with obstacles. I once again see potential and current price fairly balanced, and for that reason, I’m back to neutral on Fisker.<blockquote>我认为菲斯克有潜力成为长期赢家，但实现这一目标的道路充满了障碍。我再次看到潜在价格和当前价格相当平衡，因此，我对菲斯克的看法又回到了中性。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434973-is-fisker-the-next-short-squeeze\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSR":"菲斯克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434973-is-fisker-the-next-short-squeeze","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141264092","content_text":"Summary\n\nFSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago.\nWith that sort of move, caution is warranted on further gains.\nNew fundamental developments lay out the future path for Fisker.\n\njonathanfilskov-photography/iStock via Getty Images\nThe electric vehicle space has been, let’s say, volatile over the past year or so. OG Tesla(TSLA) continues to dwarf all other comers in terms of market cap, but there are numerous new competitors, many of which are so new, they don’t even have any revenue yet. One such example is the reincarnated Fisker Inc.(FSR), which is founder Henrik Fisker’s second go at making an electric automaker.\nI wrote apieceon Fisker about a month ago when the share price was $10.69, saying it was a great time to buy. Shares are 72% higher than that today – amassivemove in the space of four weeks – but such is the nature of the game in electric vehicles. Up 72%, the big question is, do you continue to hold? In this case, I think the answer is “no”, but with some caveats.\nSource: StockCharts\nFirst, let’s take a look at the chart, which highlights just how volatile this thing really is. Prior support in the low-$14s was lost during the last downturn, and the stock eventually bottomed at $9.61. Since then, shares havedoubled, and we’ve seen a complete reset in terms of sentiment for Fisker. One thing you must understand is that Fisker and other zero-revenue EV makers trade on momentum and sentiment rather than fundamentals, so you must be nimble.\nI would look for that low-$14 area to hold as support on the next pullback, but I’ll also note that it isn’t all that strong, having failed miserably last time there was a selloff. But if the stock is going to bounce, that will likely be the area it will happen.\nI’ll also note the PPO is very overbought, and is very close to the same levels where prior rallies have lost steam and eventually rolled over. That means the odds of a further rally from here are greatly diminishing, as the bulls have made a Herculean push already, and there are signs the push is ending, at least temporarily.\nThe 14-day RSI is showing similar behavior, as it is rolling over after reaching extreme overbought conditions. The point of all of this is that this stock has doubled in the space of a month, and the rally looks tired. I don’t see a reasonable path meaningfully higher here, but in the EV space, anything can happen. But the bottom line is that the rally looks tired to me, and I think the most prudent course of action is to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry.\nNew developments\nThere have been some interesting developments since my last update on Fisker, and ones that have the potential to drive the share price over time.\nFirst up, short interest in Fisker is soaring, and after the numerous highly-shorted stocks we’ve seen go to the moon this year, that’s worth noting. Below is Fisker’s short interest for reference.\nSource: YCharts\nShort interest has roughly quadrupled since February, and is rising all the time. The kinds of rallies that we’ve seen in Fisker can cause short squeezes because shorts on the wrong side of a parabolic rally can often panic buy to cover their shorts, leading to a short squeeze.\nFisker’s current rally lacks the volume of a short squeeze, so I firmly believe this rally is not a result of high short interest, but is instead buyers just buying the stock. If shorts throw in the towel, Fisker could squeeze a lot higher than it is today. To be clear, I’m not saying Fisker is the next short squeeze, but what I am saying is that 45M shares short is roughly seven days’ worth of normal volume, so it’s significant. I certainly also would not short Fisker at these levels for that reason.\nIn short, I do not believe Fisker is the next short squeeze candidate because squeezes usually occur when a stock is at or near a top, and thus most or all short sellers are underwater. Fisker isn't anywhere close to its former high, and given how tired the rally looks today, I see the odds of that occurring as low.\nFrom a fundamental perspective, Fisker continues to make progress towards making production a reality of its Ocean SUV, as evidenced in itsQ1 report. The company ended the quarter with $985 million in cash, which is good enough for about 10 quarters at the current run rate; in Q1, the company spent $29 million on operating activities, and $66 million in capex. The company also said the majority of the Ocean has been sourced, which is improving cost visibility as prior questions have become answers.\nI don’t think Fisker has unlimited runway in terms of cash, but it should have enough to get to production of the Ocean, which is still slated for late this year, or early next year. That’s very important because Fisker needs the cash to start rolling in fairly soon, or further capital raises will be necessary.\nFisker says it has 16k reservations for Oceans at this point, but as we know, reservations for new vehicles are very low cost for the consumer, and don’t represent an obligation to buy. Given this, I take them with a grain of salt. But on the plus side, Fisker has done essentially no advertising, and I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of Americans have no idea what Fisker is. That indicates that there may be some legs to the Ocean, but we’ll have to wait and see.\nPerhaps most importantly, Fisker has an ambitious plan to produce a sub-$30k EV, currently calledProject PEAR. The company has signed Foxconn to make the vehicle, which won’t be available for another two years or so. But it represents another step towards Fisker becoming more mainstream, and if the company can execute, it could grab big chunks of market share. I’ll caveat that producing sub-$30k EVs is no small task because the batteries are very expensive. This is why others have struggled to do the same thing, and I have no reason to think Fisker won’t struggle as well. However, if the Ocean is a success, and provides the cash to develop PEAR, Fisker could be off to the races. PEAR is just an idea at this point, so don’t get too excited, but Fisker certainly has grand plans.\nValuation remains mixed\nThe tricky thing about valuing startups is that the targets – whether it is revenue or earnings – move all the time. In Fisker’s case, it is apparent that some targets were probably a bit optimistic, especially for revenue.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nEstimates for the out years have come up slightly in the past month – likely due to analysts building PEAR into projections – but in the past six months, estimates are off by a third in some cases. You have to remember if you buy this stock that Fisker isn’t slated to receiveanyrevenue until next year, and even then, progress will start slowly. But if Fisker does achieve $8+ billion in revenue by 2025, buying the stock today will have proven a prescient move. There are just so many steps between now and then that the ride will be extremely volatile to say the least.\nThat is illustrated nicely by EPS estimates.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nEPS is almost certainly going to be negative for at least this year and next year, but if production ramps the way it should for Ocean, Fisker has an outside chance at hitting breakeven in 2023. If scale is achieved, we could see very strong EPS, with 2025 current at $3.72 per share, and 2026 at $4.95. If Ocean succeeds, and Fisker can produce PEAR in sufficient numbers, these estimates could become reality. But you can see the consternation among market participants in that a stock with $5 in EPS five years from now is trading for $18,afterdoubling in a month. In other words, the share price is pricing in the fact that these estimates are simply guesses at this point. Said another way, if there was some certainty around $5 in EPS in 2026, it would be reasonable to see a multiple of 10 or 12 on that number, or a share price of $50 to $60. We're at a small fraction of that, which is pricing in the massive uncertainty of the company achieving these results.\nFinal thoughts\nThe bottom line on Fisker is that the company is so far from making any sort of meaningful revenue – and even further from profits – that it is mostly a momentum trade as a result. The stock has doubled in the past month, and I see cracks in the rally’s strength, so I think it is once again time to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry price.\nI think Fisker has the potential to be a winner in the long-term, but the path to get there is fraught with obstacles. I once again see potential and current price fairly balanced, and for that reason, I’m back to neutral on Fisker.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FSR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":966,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/169393877"}