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我要做富人

2021-06-16

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Well said.

Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote>

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The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.<blockquote>ContextLogic(WISH)对股东来说是一段疯狂的旅程，因为最近几周高波动性继续导致价格大幅波动。该电子商务平台最初于12月以每股20美元的价格上市，随后由于势头驱动的反弹，在2月份飙升至32美元的历史高点。尽管如此，自那以后，股价稳步暴跌，在6月份触及仅7美元的历史低点，但在零售交易部门的兴趣增加后，现在正在迅速复苏。在这里，该股因其高波动性、空头兴趣和巨大的上涨潜力而受到青睐。</blockquote> In this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.<blockquote>在这种情况下，我认为高空头兴趣越来越多地将股价推至公允价值以下，耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到20美元或更多，因为该公司正在应对物流挑战，并将很快恢复规模经济。在这方面，该电子商务平台具有独特的价值主张，并处于有利地位，可以在6万亿美元的电子商务行业中获得市场份额。</blockquote> The Digital Dollar Tree<blockquote>数字美元树</blockquote> Wish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.<blockquote>Wish作为一个电子商务平台受到了严厉批评，我几乎可以说，它作为中国商家第三方“直运”网站的形象让投资者迄今为止远离了该股。然而，这可能只是部分正确。从本质上讲，Wish通过低价（低质量）产品和缓慢的交付时间（可能导致长达一周的交付时间）扭转了亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）的商业模式。这是因为Wish本身不处理运输，这就是为什么它可以提供这些超低价格，提供2美元加2美元运费的连帽衫。</blockquote> Frankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.<blockquote>坦率地说，Wish仍然依赖中国商家，占其产品目录的大部分。考虑到大多数商品都是在中国生产的，因为生产成本是世界上最低的之一，这并不奇怪。亚马逊或eBay（纳斯达克：eBay）上销售的大多数商品也是在中国生产的，尽管由于一日送达计划或更高的价格，它们获得了更高的认知度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bea733440e86851af57559c6a5fd6bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Now, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.<blockquote>现在，我将Wish视为数字美元树，在线购物者在这里发现他们想要而不是需要的商品。在这个过程中，客户对产品更有耐心，愿意等待更长时间才能到货。随着其平台越来越受欢迎，Wish正在努力解决这两个问题（质量和商家多元化）。在这里，它一直在投资物流以提供更快的交付，物流收入同比增长275%就证明了这一点。由于这些收入的利润率较低，其整体毛利率也相应下降。然而，一旦该领域实现规模经济，利润率增长应该会逆转并回落至70%。</blockquote> It is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.<blockquote>它还通过不断扩大其国际商户基础来解决第二个问题。在这里，美国商家同比增长超过400%，在其他国家也可以看到类似的趋势。此外，它正在增长Wish Local，这是一项将本地企业与平台连接起来的服务，占所有Wish订单的7%。Wish local主要（或专门）在美国销售，因此越来越多地与网站上的其他产品混合在一起。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eb88453d075db6b7b8edd21f981b4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\">Source: Sensor Tower<blockquote>来源：传感器塔</blockquote> I also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.<blockquote>我还喜欢Wish通过利用人工智能匹配系统来吸引和留住用户的策略，该系统可以优化平台增长、用户体验和商家投资回报。创造互动移动购物体验的策略似乎运作良好：令人印象深刻的是，Wish每天从用户那里获得超过50万条评论，在这方面甚至超过了亚马逊和其他购物网站，展示了该平台的吸引力。大约80%的首次购物者会再次购买。</blockquote> Wish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.<blockquote>因此，Wish能够在竞争激烈的电子商务市场中站稳脚跟，为其提供了巨大的增长空间。目前，大约40%的电子商务市场份额仅由亚马逊拥有。与亚马逊相比，其TAM可能有限，因为它专注于低收入利基市场，这也是它最初受欢迎的原因。尽管如此，这仍为Wish提供了超过3万亿美元的市场机会。还值得注意的是，据报道，亚马逊试图以100亿美元收购Wish，但Wish拒绝了，认为该业务的年销售额将增长到1000亿美元，届时其估值将明显更高。</blockquote> Negative Sentiment Baked In<blockquote>负面情绪根深蒂固</blockquote> Wish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.<blockquote>Wish的前两个季度有点令人失望。虽然该公司轻松超出了收入预期，但为了投资物流，该公司消耗了超过3亿美元的现金。然而，更重要的是，月活跃用户数稳步下降，该公司将此归咎于该公司在应对今年早些时候面临的物流挑战时不再重视广告和客户获取。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Year</td> <td>2020</td> <td>2019</td> <td>2018</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Revenue</td> <td>$2.54B</td> <td>$1.9B</td> <td>$1.73B</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gross Profit</td> <td>$1.59B</td> <td>$1.46B</td> <td>$1.45B</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sales and Marketing</td> <td>$1.71B (+17%)</td> <td>$1.46B (-7%)</td> <td>$1.57B</td> </tr> <tr> <td>MAUs</td> <td>107M (+19%)</td> <td>90M (+10%)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td><td>2020</td><td>2019</td><td>2018</td></tr><tr><td>收入</td><td>$2.54 B</td><td>19亿美元</td><td>$1.73 B</td></tr><tr><td>毛利</td><td>$1.59 B</td><td>$1.46 B</td><td>$1.45 B</td></tr><tr><td>销售及市场推广</td><td>$17.1亿(+17%)</td><td>$1.46 B(-7%)</td><td>$1.57 B</td></tr><tr><td>老鼠</td><td>1.07亿(+19%)</td><td>9000万(+10%)</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>82M</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Active Buyers</td> <td>64M (+3%)</td> <td>62M (-3%)</td> <td>64M</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *Growth (Year-over-Year)<blockquote><td>82M</td><tr><td>活跃买家</td><td>6400万(+3%)</td><td>6200万(-3%)</td><td>64M</td></tr>*增长（同比）</blockquote> The largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.<blockquote>Wish最大的看跌理由是其高昂的营销费用，占其总收入的60%，占其毛利润的100%以上。这完全没问题，除非它通过营销增加活跃买家，不幸的是事实并非如此。这是一个危险信号，并质疑Wish商业模式的长期可持续性。然而，该公司一直接近正现金流，并表示如果不是因为其大量的营销费用，它已经实现了盈利。也就是说，只要Wish获得新的月活跃用户并通过物流服务增加价值，从长远来看，其营销费用就会得到回报。此外，Wish的营销费用占总收入的比例已从上年的67%降至60%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e18c23728274ee708d896923820b282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"278\">Source: Wish IR<blockquote>资料来源：Wish IR</blockquote> In terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).<blockquote>就前景而言，这就是该公司本质上强调的。它相信营销费用可以降低到40-45%，从而使EBITDA利润率达到25%的中点范围。如果它实现了这些雄心勃勃的目标（这很有可能），其利润率将与eBay或MercadoLibre（纳斯达克：MELI）相似。不管怎样，Wish的商业模式并不完美，但在我看来（在我看来），所有这些担忧都不仅仅体现在其当前的估值中。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54029f94c37f301d26e93a11636280e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\">Data byYCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> Even after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.<blockquote>即使在最近上涨了50%以上之后，股价仍然远远落后于Poshmark（纳斯达克股票代码：POSH）、eBay、Amazon和（Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP））等同行。Wish的预计收入超过30亿美元，其市销率仅为1.8倍，仅为eBay当前估值的一半，远低于Poshmark。目前的估计是，到2025年，收入将超过60亿美元，自由现金流将达到10亿美元，这意味着Wish的交易价格仅为自由现金流估计的7倍，即销售额的1倍。2021年初，其市盈率接近5倍，估值存在扩张潜力。</blockquote> What about the Lawsuits?<blockquote>诉讼呢？</blockquote> Perhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.<blockquote>也许你已经看过关于集体诉讼的新闻（尤其是在雅虎财经上）。这些诉讼被广泛发布，以提醒投资者在近几个月股价下跌后挽回损失。当股票在短时间内大幅下跌并且投资者可能不关心时，此类诉讼并不罕见。这些诉讼还包括CloverHealth（纳斯达克：CLOV）、Skillz（纽约证券交易所：SKLZ）、Array Technologies（纳斯达克：ARRY）等公司。</blockquote> Short Interest - Still High<blockquote>空头利息——仍然很高</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875b3fdaf74f1ef639b51d77a3aac01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\">Source: Fintel<blockquote>资料来源：Fintel</blockquote> Wish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.<blockquote>Wish已经获得了散户投资者的巨大吸引力，因为投资者正在寻找下一次大的轧空。由于Wish的大部分股票仍被锁定，其确切的做空比率很难估计。根据Seeking Alpha的数据，目前的空头比率仅为7%，但这个数字可能会更高。根据彭博终端数据，上周其空头权益占其流通股的百分比约为48%。Fintel等其他消息来源将当前的空头量确定为20-30%。现在，很难给出一个确切的估计，但总体来说，很可能在这个范围内的某个地方，许多空头评级仍有待回补。从长远来看，高空头兴趣可能是一个优势，如果股票开始呈上升趋势，就会导致更快的加速。</blockquote> The Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> I believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.<blockquote>我相信Wish仍然是电子商务中最被低估的资产之一，其平台上拥有超过1亿的月用户，并连接了来自世界各地的数千家商家。移动购物应用程序仍然是该领域下载量最高的购物应用程序之一，并具有独特的价值主张，比乍一看更智能。此外，其与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将为超过300,000家商家提供免费的直接集成，将他们直接连接到Wish的商家仪表板，从而进一步推动增长。尽管Wish不完善的商业模式存在盈利能力滞后等风险，但耐心的投资者可能会获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-16 13:45\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.</li> <li>Wish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.</li> <li>While accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.</li> <li>I believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">JuSun/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Wish(ContextLogic)仍然是电子商务交易中最被低估的资产之一，其远期EV与销售额之比仅为1.3倍。</li><li>Wish与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将进一步加速国际扩张和增长计划。</li><li>虽然很难找到有关其空头利息的准确数据，因为其大部分流通量仍被锁定，但我估计空头利息在30-40%之间。</li><li>我相信，包括高额营销支出和用户数量停滞在内的看跌论点已经在当前股价中根深蒂固。</li></ul>JuSun/iStock来自Getty Images</blockquote> Overview<blockquote>概述</blockquote> ContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.<blockquote>ContextLogic(WISH)对股东来说是一段疯狂的旅程，因为最近几周高波动性继续导致价格大幅波动。该电子商务平台最初于12月以每股20美元的价格上市，随后由于势头驱动的反弹，在2月份飙升至32美元的历史高点。尽管如此，自那以后，股价稳步暴跌，在6月份触及仅7美元的历史低点，但在零售交易部门的兴趣增加后，现在正在迅速复苏。在这里，该股因其高波动性、空头兴趣和巨大的上涨潜力而受到青睐。</blockquote> In this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.<blockquote>在这种情况下，我认为高空头兴趣越来越多地将股价推至公允价值以下，耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到20美元或更多，因为该公司正在应对物流挑战，并将很快恢复规模经济。在这方面，该电子商务平台具有独特的价值主张，并处于有利地位，可以在6万亿美元的电子商务行业中获得市场份额。</blockquote> The Digital Dollar Tree<blockquote>数字美元树</blockquote> Wish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.<blockquote>Wish作为一个电子商务平台受到了严厉批评，我几乎可以说，它作为中国商家第三方“直运”网站的形象让投资者迄今为止远离了该股。然而，这可能只是部分正确。从本质上讲，Wish通过低价（低质量）产品和缓慢的交付时间（可能导致长达一周的交付时间）扭转了亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）的商业模式。这是因为Wish本身不处理运输，这就是为什么它可以提供这些超低价格，提供2美元加2美元运费的连帽衫。</blockquote> Frankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.<blockquote>坦率地说，Wish仍然依赖中国商家，占其产品目录的大部分。考虑到大多数商品都是在中国生产的，因为生产成本是世界上最低的之一，这并不奇怪。亚马逊或eBay（纳斯达克：eBay）上销售的大多数商品也是在中国生产的，尽管由于一日送达计划或更高的价格，它们获得了更高的认知度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bea733440e86851af57559c6a5fd6bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Now, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.<blockquote>现在，我将Wish视为数字美元树，在线购物者在这里发现他们想要而不是需要的商品。在这个过程中，客户对产品更有耐心，愿意等待更长时间才能到货。随着其平台越来越受欢迎，Wish正在努力解决这两个问题（质量和商家多元化）。在这里，它一直在投资物流以提供更快的交付，物流收入同比增长275%就证明了这一点。由于这些收入的利润率较低，其整体毛利率也相应下降。然而，一旦该领域实现规模经济，利润率增长应该会逆转并回落至70%。</blockquote> It is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.<blockquote>它还通过不断扩大其国际商户基础来解决第二个问题。在这里，美国商家同比增长超过400%，在其他国家也可以看到类似的趋势。此外，它正在增长Wish Local，这是一项将本地企业与平台连接起来的服务，占所有Wish订单的7%。Wish local主要（或专门）在美国销售，因此越来越多地与网站上的其他产品混合在一起。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eb88453d075db6b7b8edd21f981b4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\">Source: Sensor Tower<blockquote>来源：传感器塔</blockquote> I also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.<blockquote>我还喜欢Wish通过利用人工智能匹配系统来吸引和留住用户的策略，该系统可以优化平台增长、用户体验和商家投资回报。创造互动移动购物体验的策略似乎运作良好：令人印象深刻的是，Wish每天从用户那里获得超过50万条评论，在这方面甚至超过了亚马逊和其他购物网站，展示了该平台的吸引力。大约80%的首次购物者会再次购买。</blockquote> Wish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.<blockquote>因此，Wish能够在竞争激烈的电子商务市场中站稳脚跟，为其提供了巨大的增长空间。目前，大约40%的电子商务市场份额仅由亚马逊拥有。与亚马逊相比，其TAM可能有限，因为它专注于低收入利基市场，这也是它最初受欢迎的原因。尽管如此，这仍为Wish提供了超过3万亿美元的市场机会。还值得注意的是，据报道，亚马逊试图以100亿美元收购Wish，但Wish拒绝了，认为该业务的年销售额将增长到1000亿美元，届时其估值将明显更高。</blockquote> Negative Sentiment Baked In<blockquote>负面情绪根深蒂固</blockquote> Wish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.<blockquote>Wish的前两个季度有点令人失望。虽然该公司轻松超出了收入预期，但为了投资物流，该公司消耗了超过3亿美元的现金。然而，更重要的是，月活跃用户数稳步下降，该公司将此归咎于该公司在应对今年早些时候面临的物流挑战时不再重视广告和客户获取。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Year</td> <td>2020</td> <td>2019</td> <td>2018</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Revenue</td> <td>$2.54B</td> <td>$1.9B</td> <td>$1.73B</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gross Profit</td> <td>$1.59B</td> <td>$1.46B</td> <td>$1.45B</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Sales and Marketing</td> <td>$1.71B (+17%)</td> <td>$1.46B (-7%)</td> <td>$1.57B</td> </tr> <tr> <td>MAUs</td> <td>107M (+19%)</td> <td>90M (+10%)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td><td>2020</td><td>2019</td><td>2018</td></tr><tr><td>收入</td><td>$2.54 B</td><td>19亿美元</td><td>$1.73 B</td></tr><tr><td>毛利</td><td>$1.59 B</td><td>$1.46 B</td><td>$1.45 B</td></tr><tr><td>销售及市场推广</td><td>$17.1亿(+17%)</td><td>$1.46 B(-7%)</td><td>$1.57 B</td></tr><tr><td>老鼠</td><td>1.07亿(+19%)</td><td>9000万(+10%)</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>82M</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Active Buyers</td> <td>64M (+3%)</td> <td>62M (-3%)</td> <td>64M</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *Growth (Year-over-Year)<blockquote><td>82M</td><tr><td>活跃买家</td><td>6400万(+3%)</td><td>6200万(-3%)</td><td>64M</td></tr>*增长（同比）</blockquote> The largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.<blockquote>Wish最大的看跌理由是其高昂的营销费用，占其总收入的60%，占其毛利润的100%以上。这完全没问题，除非它通过营销增加活跃买家，不幸的是事实并非如此。这是一个危险信号，并质疑Wish商业模式的长期可持续性。然而，该公司一直接近正现金流，并表示如果不是因为其大量的营销费用，它已经实现了盈利。也就是说，只要Wish获得新的月活跃用户并通过物流服务增加价值，从长远来看，其营销费用就会得到回报。此外，Wish的营销费用占总收入的比例已从上年的67%降至60%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e18c23728274ee708d896923820b282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"278\">Source: Wish IR<blockquote>资料来源：Wish IR</blockquote> In terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).<blockquote>就前景而言，这就是该公司本质上强调的。它相信营销费用可以降低到40-45%，从而使EBITDA利润率达到25%的中点范围。如果它实现了这些雄心勃勃的目标（这很有可能），其利润率将与eBay或MercadoLibre（纳斯达克：MELI）相似。不管怎样，Wish的商业模式并不完美，但在我看来（在我看来），所有这些担忧都不仅仅体现在其当前的估值中。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54029f94c37f301d26e93a11636280e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\">Data byYCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> Even after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.<blockquote>即使在最近上涨了50%以上之后，股价仍然远远落后于Poshmark（纳斯达克股票代码：POSH）、eBay、Amazon和（Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP））等同行。Wish的预计收入超过30亿美元，其市销率仅为1.8倍，仅为eBay当前估值的一半，远低于Poshmark。目前的估计是，到2025年，收入将超过60亿美元，自由现金流将达到10亿美元，这意味着Wish的交易价格仅为自由现金流估计的7倍，即销售额的1倍。2021年初，其市盈率接近5倍，估值存在扩张潜力。</blockquote> What about the Lawsuits?<blockquote>诉讼呢？</blockquote> Perhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.<blockquote>也许你已经看过关于集体诉讼的新闻（尤其是在雅虎财经上）。这些诉讼被广泛发布，以提醒投资者在近几个月股价下跌后挽回损失。当股票在短时间内大幅下跌并且投资者可能不关心时，此类诉讼并不罕见。这些诉讼还包括CloverHealth（纳斯达克：CLOV）、Skillz（纽约证券交易所：SKLZ）、Array Technologies（纳斯达克：ARRY）等公司。</blockquote> Short Interest - Still High<blockquote>空头利息——仍然很高</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875b3fdaf74f1ef639b51d77a3aac01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\">Source: Fintel<blockquote>资料来源：Fintel</blockquote> Wish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.<blockquote>Wish已经获得了散户投资者的巨大吸引力，因为投资者正在寻找下一次大的轧空。由于Wish的大部分股票仍被锁定，其确切的做空比率很难估计。根据Seeking Alpha的数据，目前的空头比率仅为7%，但这个数字可能会更高。根据彭博终端数据，上周其空头权益占其流通股的百分比约为48%。Fintel等其他消息来源将当前的空头量确定为20-30%。现在，很难给出一个确切的估计，但总体来说，很可能在这个范围内的某个地方，许多空头评级仍有待回补。从长远来看，高空头兴趣可能是一个优势，如果股票开始呈上升趋势，就会导致更快的加速。</blockquote> The Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> I believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.<blockquote>我相信Wish仍然是电子商务中最被低估的资产之一，其平台上拥有超过1亿的月用户，并连接了来自世界各地的数千家商家。移动购物应用程序仍然是该领域下载量最高的购物应用程序之一，并具有独特的价值主张，比乍一看更智能。此外，其与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将为超过300,000家商家提供免费的直接集成，将他们直接连接到Wish的商家仪表板，从而进一步推动增长。尽管Wish不完善的商业模式存在盈利能力滞后等风险，但耐心的投资者可能会获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148768572","content_text":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.\nWish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.\nWhile accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.\nI believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.\n\nJuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nOverview\nContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.\nIn this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.\nThe Digital Dollar Tree\nWish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.\nFrankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.\n\nNow, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.\nIt is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.\nSource: Sensor Tower\nI also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.\nWish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.\nNegative Sentiment Baked In\nWish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.\n\n\n\nYear\n2020\n2019\n2018\n\n\nRevenue\n$2.54B\n$1.9B\n$1.73B\n\n\nGross Profit\n$1.59B\n$1.46B\n$1.45B\n\n\nSales and Marketing\n$1.71B (+17%)\n$1.46B (-7%)\n$1.57B\n\n\nMAUs\n107M (+19%)\n90M (+10%)\n82M\n\n\nActive Buyers\n64M (+3%)\n62M (-3%)\n64M\n\n\n\n*Growth (Year-over-Year)\nThe largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.\nSource: Wish IR\nIn terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).\nData byYCharts\nEven after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.\nWhat about the Lawsuits?\nPerhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.\nShort Interest - Still High\nSource: Fintel\nWish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.\nThe Bottom Line\nI believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WISH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["CLNE","AMC","WISH"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":93,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/169291037"}