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2021-06-16
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Why Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock<blockquote>高盛为何改变对苹果股票的看法</blockquote>
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Last week, he gave an interview to CNBC and further elaborated on his decision.</p><p><blockquote>即使在强劲的季度业绩之后，高盛著名的熊市罗德·霍尔 (bear Rod Hall) 仍因坚持对苹果股票的悲观情绪而成为人们关注的焦点，但他认输了，并将他对 AAPL 的立场从卖出改为中性。上周，他接受了 CNBC 的采访，并进一步阐述了他的决定。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven takes a closer look at this bear’s journey from highly skeptical to timidly optimistic about Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家仔细研究了这位熊市对苹果股票从高度怀疑到胆怯乐观的历程。</blockquote></p><p> <b>iPhone at the center of the bear case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊壳中心的iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> At the core of Goldman Sachs’ sell rating on Apple stock was the Cupertino company's challenges at meeting iPhone sales growth metrics going forward. Rod Hall explained it:</p><p><blockquote>高盛给予苹果股票卖出评级的核心是这家库比蒂诺公司在未来实现 iPhone 销售增长指标方面面临的挑战。罗德·霍尔解释道：</blockquote></p><p> “Apple continues to show strong execution, but we see fundamentals more likely to disappoint in 2021 as the long-anticipated 5G iPhone fails to meet optimistic consensus expectations and services revenue growth slows.” To be fair, Apple’s most recent financial results had been far from exhilarating ahead of Goldman’s stock rating upgrade. The Cupertino company's main revenue generator, the iPhone, had produced timid results in 2020, making some wonder if smartphone sales would disappoint at the start of the 5G cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“苹果继续表现出强劲的执行力，但我们认为，由于期待已久的 5G iPhone 未能达到乐观的共识预期，服务收入增长放缓，2021 年的基本面更有可能令人失望。”平心而论，在高盛上调股票评级之前，苹果最近的财务业绩远非令人鼓舞。这家库比蒂诺公司的主要收入来源iPhone在2020年的业绩表现不佳，这让一些人怀疑智能手机销售是否会在5G周期开始时令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> The plateauing in smartphone sales preceded the pandemic year. Based on data from third party-research companies Gartner and Strategy Analytics, 187 million iPhones were sold in 2019, fewer than the 217 million of 2018. And from 2019 to 2020, there was an unprecedented decrease in iPhone revenues: from $142 billion to $138 billion last year.</p><p><blockquote>智能手机销量在疫情年之前就已趋于稳定。根据第三方研究公司Gartner和Strategy Analytics的数据，2019年iPhone的销量为1.87亿部，低于2018年的2.17亿部。而从2019年到2020年，iPhone的收入出现了前所未有的下降：从去年的1420亿美元降至1380亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, and based on recent trends, Rod Hall’s bearishness towards the iPhone seemed reasonably justifiable. What had been missing to tip Apple stock over, in the analyst’s view, was a negative catalyst. He believed that the COVID-19 pandemic could be it.</p><p><blockquote>因此，从最近的趋势来看，罗德-霍尔对 iPhone 的看跌似乎是有道理的。在这位分析师看来，苹果股市上涨所缺少的是一个负面催化剂。他认为新冠肺炎疫情可能就是它。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89631d8083d43e0daee7828d45e7a67a\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone quarterly revenue ($bn).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：iPhone季度收入（十亿美元）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>When Goldman Sachs fell off the horse</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当高盛从马背上摔下来</b></blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s rating change on AAPL came in April, after the Cupertino company crushed expectations and released a blowout earnings report. Fiscal second quarter 2021 marked a turning point in iPhone 12 sales, after Apple faced delays in the launch of the new device.</p><p><blockquote>高盛在 4 月份改变了对 AAPL 的评级，此前这家库比蒂诺公司超出了预期，发布了一份井喷的财报。在苹果面临新设备推出延迟后，2021 财年第二财季标志着 iPhone 12 销售的转折点。</blockquote></p><p> Apple reported iPhone revenues of $47.9 billion versus Wall Street’s consensus $41.5 billion. Year-over-year, the top-line increase was a staggering $19 billion, representing growth of 65%.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公布的 iPhone 营收为 479 亿美元，而华尔街普遍预期为 415 亿美元。与去年同期相比，营收增长了惊人的 190 亿美元，增长了 65%。</blockquote></p><p> These numbers probably caught Goldman’s Rod Hall flat-footed.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字可能让高盛的罗德-霍尔措手不及。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Goldman Sachs sees Apple going forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛如何看待苹果的未来</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Goldman, the neutral position on AAPL is justified by one key metric: revenues per user. The analyst believes that growth in this metric should be in line with U.S. GDP. He points out that Apple's revenues per user have remained static in recent years, only rising during the pandemic due to stay-at-home trends.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示，对 AAPL 的中立立场有一个关键指标是合理的：每用户收入。该分析师认为，这一指标的增长应该与美国GDP保持一致。他指出，苹果的每用户收入近年来一直保持不变，只是在疫情期间由于居家趋势而有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> On the bullish side of the argument, Rod Hall sees the importance of privacy, and thinks that Apple could benefit from increased demand for being an advocate of user data protection. On the bearish side, the analyst remains skeptical that the services segment will grow as much as expected, and that only about 20% to 25% of active users will pay for Apple services.</p><p><blockquote>从乐观的角度来看，Rod Hall看到了隐私的重要性，并认为苹果可以从成为用户数据保护倡导者的日益增长的需求中受益。从悲观的角度来看，分析师仍然怀疑服务领域能否像预期那样增长，并且只有大约 20% 至 25% 的活跃用户会为苹果服务付费。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven's take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> Rod Hall has not been the first and will not be the last on Wall Street to be proven wrong on a stock rating. Goldman Sachs' position was contrarian, and bold for the same reason. Yet, the Apple Maven believes that Rod Hall’s cautious stance could still be a bit too conservative.</p><p><blockquote>罗德·霍尔并不是华尔街第一个也不会是最后一个在股票评级上被证明是错误的人。出于同样的原因，高盛的立场是逆向的，而且大胆。然而，这位苹果专家认为，罗德-霍尔的谨慎立场可能仍然有点过于保守。</blockquote></p><p> While stay-at-home trends may have distorted fiscal 2020 and early 2021 results, the 5G cycle, the M1 architecture, the expansion of the services portfolio and resilient consumer spending in general may still help to boost Apple's revenue-per-user metric – Goldman’s key concern.</p><p><blockquote>虽然居家办公的趋势可能会扭曲 2020 财年和 2021 年初的业绩，但 5G 周期、M1 架构、服务组合的扩张以及总体有弹性的消费者支出仍可能有助于提升苹果的每用户收入指标--高盛的主要关注点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock<blockquote>高盛为何改变对苹果股票的看法</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock<blockquote>高盛为何改变对苹果股票的看法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 10:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After being on the spotlight for latching on to his pessimism over Apple stock, even following strong quarterly results, famed bear Rod Hall at Goldman Sachs threw in the towel and changed his position on AAPLfrom sell to neutral. Last week, he gave an interview to CNBC and further elaborated on his decision.</p><p><blockquote>即使在强劲的季度业绩之后，高盛著名的熊市罗德·霍尔 (bear Rod Hall) 仍因坚持对苹果股票的悲观情绪而成为人们关注的焦点，但他认输了，并将他对 AAPL 的立场从卖出改为中性。上周，他接受了 CNBC 的采访，并进一步阐述了他的决定。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven takes a closer look at this bear’s journey from highly skeptical to timidly optimistic about Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家仔细研究了这位熊市对苹果股票从高度怀疑到胆怯乐观的历程。</blockquote></p><p> <b>iPhone at the center of the bear case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊壳中心的iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> At the core of Goldman Sachs’ sell rating on Apple stock was the Cupertino company's challenges at meeting iPhone sales growth metrics going forward. Rod Hall explained it:</p><p><blockquote>高盛给予苹果股票卖出评级的核心是这家库比蒂诺公司在未来实现 iPhone 销售增长指标方面面临的挑战。罗德·霍尔解释道：</blockquote></p><p> “Apple continues to show strong execution, but we see fundamentals more likely to disappoint in 2021 as the long-anticipated 5G iPhone fails to meet optimistic consensus expectations and services revenue growth slows.” To be fair, Apple’s most recent financial results had been far from exhilarating ahead of Goldman’s stock rating upgrade. The Cupertino company's main revenue generator, the iPhone, had produced timid results in 2020, making some wonder if smartphone sales would disappoint at the start of the 5G cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“苹果继续表现出强劲的执行力，但我们认为，由于期待已久的 5G iPhone 未能达到乐观的共识预期，服务收入增长放缓，2021 年的基本面更有可能令人失望。”平心而论，在高盛上调股票评级之前，苹果最近的财务业绩远非令人鼓舞。这家库比蒂诺公司的主要收入来源iPhone在2020年的业绩表现不佳，这让一些人怀疑智能手机销售是否会在5G周期开始时令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> The plateauing in smartphone sales preceded the pandemic year. Based on data from third party-research companies Gartner and Strategy Analytics, 187 million iPhones were sold in 2019, fewer than the 217 million of 2018. And from 2019 to 2020, there was an unprecedented decrease in iPhone revenues: from $142 billion to $138 billion last year.</p><p><blockquote>智能手机销量在疫情年之前就已趋于稳定。根据第三方研究公司Gartner和Strategy Analytics的数据，2019年iPhone的销量为1.87亿部，低于2018年的2.17亿部。而从2019年到2020年，iPhone的收入出现了前所未有的下降：从去年的1420亿美元降至1380亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, and based on recent trends, Rod Hall’s bearishness towards the iPhone seemed reasonably justifiable. What had been missing to tip Apple stock over, in the analyst’s view, was a negative catalyst. He believed that the COVID-19 pandemic could be it.</p><p><blockquote>因此，从最近的趋势来看，罗德-霍尔对 iPhone 的看跌似乎是有道理的。在这位分析师看来，苹果股市上涨所缺少的是一个负面催化剂。他认为新冠肺炎疫情可能就是它。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89631d8083d43e0daee7828d45e7a67a\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone quarterly revenue ($bn).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：iPhone季度收入（十亿美元）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>When Goldman Sachs fell off the horse</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当高盛从马背上摔下来</b></blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s rating change on AAPL came in April, after the Cupertino company crushed expectations and released a blowout earnings report. Fiscal second quarter 2021 marked a turning point in iPhone 12 sales, after Apple faced delays in the launch of the new device.</p><p><blockquote>高盛在 4 月份改变了对 AAPL 的评级，此前这家库比蒂诺公司超出了预期，发布了一份井喷的财报。在苹果面临新设备推出延迟后，2021 财年第二财季标志着 iPhone 12 销售的转折点。</blockquote></p><p> Apple reported iPhone revenues of $47.9 billion versus Wall Street’s consensus $41.5 billion. Year-over-year, the top-line increase was a staggering $19 billion, representing growth of 65%.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公布的 iPhone 营收为 479 亿美元，而华尔街普遍预期为 415 亿美元。与去年同期相比，营收增长了惊人的 190 亿美元，增长了 65%。</blockquote></p><p> These numbers probably caught Goldman’s Rod Hall flat-footed.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字可能让高盛的罗德-霍尔措手不及。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Goldman Sachs sees Apple going forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛如何看待苹果的未来</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Goldman, the neutral position on AAPL is justified by one key metric: revenues per user. The analyst believes that growth in this metric should be in line with U.S. GDP. He points out that Apple's revenues per user have remained static in recent years, only rising during the pandemic due to stay-at-home trends.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示，对 AAPL 的中立立场有一个关键指标是合理的：每用户收入。该分析师认为，这一指标的增长应该与美国GDP保持一致。他指出，苹果的每用户收入近年来一直保持不变，只是在疫情期间由于居家趋势而有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> On the bullish side of the argument, Rod Hall sees the importance of privacy, and thinks that Apple could benefit from increased demand for being an advocate of user data protection. On the bearish side, the analyst remains skeptical that the services segment will grow as much as expected, and that only about 20% to 25% of active users will pay for Apple services.</p><p><blockquote>从乐观的角度来看，Rod Hall看到了隐私的重要性，并认为苹果可以从成为用户数据保护倡导者的日益增长的需求中受益。从悲观的角度来看，分析师仍然怀疑服务领域能否像预期那样增长，并且只有大约 20% 至 25% 的活跃用户会为苹果服务付费。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven's take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> Rod Hall has not been the first and will not be the last on Wall Street to be proven wrong on a stock rating. Goldman Sachs' position was contrarian, and bold for the same reason. Yet, the Apple Maven believes that Rod Hall’s cautious stance could still be a bit too conservative.</p><p><blockquote>罗德·霍尔并不是华尔街第一个也不会是最后一个在股票评级上被证明是错误的人。出于同样的原因，高盛的立场是逆向的，而且大胆。然而，这位苹果专家认为，罗德-霍尔的谨慎立场可能仍然有点过于保守。</blockquote></p><p> While stay-at-home trends may have distorted fiscal 2020 and early 2021 results, the 5G cycle, the M1 architecture, the expansion of the services portfolio and resilient consumer spending in general may still help to boost Apple's revenue-per-user metric – Goldman’s key concern.</p><p><blockquote>虽然居家办公的趋势可能会扭曲 2020 财年和 2021 年初的业绩，但 5G 周期、M1 架构、服务组合的扩张以及总体有弹性的消费者支出仍可能有助于提升苹果的每用户收入指标--高盛的主要关注点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/why-goldman-sachs-changed-its-mind-on-apple-stock\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/why-goldman-sachs-changed-its-mind-on-apple-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109582645","content_text":"After being on the spotlight for latching on to his pessimism over Apple stock, even following strong quarterly results, famed bear Rod Hall at Goldman Sachs threw in the towel and changed his position on AAPLfrom sell to neutral. Last week, he gave an interview to CNBC and further elaborated on his decision.\nThe Apple Maven takes a closer look at this bear’s journey from highly skeptical to timidly optimistic about Apple shares.\niPhone at the center of the bear case\nAt the core of Goldman Sachs’ sell rating on Apple stock was the Cupertino company's challenges at meeting iPhone sales growth metrics going forward. Rod Hall explained it:\n\n “Apple continues to show strong execution, but we see fundamentals more likely to disappoint in 2021 as the long-anticipated 5G iPhone fails to meet optimistic consensus expectations and services revenue growth slows.”\n\nTo be fair, Apple’s most recent financial results had been far from exhilarating ahead of Goldman’s stock rating upgrade. The Cupertino company's main revenue generator, the iPhone, had produced timid results in 2020, making some wonder if smartphone sales would disappoint at the start of the 5G cycle.\nThe plateauing in smartphone sales preceded the pandemic year. Based on data from third party-research companies Gartner and Strategy Analytics, 187 million iPhones were sold in 2019, fewer than the 217 million of 2018. And from 2019 to 2020, there was an unprecedented decrease in iPhone revenues: from $142 billion to $138 billion last year.\nTherefore, and based on recent trends, Rod Hall’s bearishness towards the iPhone seemed reasonably justifiable. What had been missing to tip Apple stock over, in the analyst’s view, was a negative catalyst. He believed that the COVID-19 pandemic could be it.\nFigure 1: iPhone quarterly revenue ($bn).\nWhen Goldman Sachs fell off the horse\nGoldman’s rating change on AAPL came in April, after the Cupertino company crushed expectations and released a blowout earnings report. Fiscal second quarter 2021 marked a turning point in iPhone 12 sales, after Apple faced delays in the launch of the new device.\nApple reported iPhone revenues of $47.9 billion versus Wall Street’s consensus $41.5 billion. Year-over-year, the top-line increase was a staggering $19 billion, representing growth of 65%.\nThese numbers probably caught Goldman’s Rod Hall flat-footed.\nHow Goldman Sachs sees Apple going forward\nAccording to Goldman, the neutral position on AAPL is justified by one key metric: revenues per user. The analyst believes that growth in this metric should be in line with U.S. GDP. He points out that Apple's revenues per user have remained static in recent years, only rising during the pandemic due to stay-at-home trends.\nOn the bullish side of the argument, Rod Hall sees the importance of privacy, and thinks that Apple could benefit from increased demand for being an advocate of user data protection. On the bearish side, the analyst remains skeptical that the services segment will grow as much as expected, and that only about 20% to 25% of active users will pay for Apple services.\nThe Apple Maven's take\nRod Hall has not been the first and will not be the last on Wall Street to be proven wrong on a stock rating. Goldman Sachs' position was contrarian, and bold for the same reason. Yet, the Apple Maven believes that Rod Hall’s cautious stance could still be a bit too conservative.\nWhile stay-at-home trends may have distorted fiscal 2020 and early 2021 results, the 5G cycle, the M1 architecture, the expansion of the services portfolio and resilient consumer spending in general may still help to boost Apple's revenue-per-user metric – Goldman’s key concern.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2716,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/169058203"}
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