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2021-06-21

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Why Biogen Isn't a Buy After Its Alzheimer's Drug Approval<blockquote>为什么百健的阿尔茨海默病药物获得批准后不值得购买</blockquote>

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Biogen(NASDAQ:BIIB)has been a huge winner for investors who owned the stock in anticipation of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of its Alzheimer's disease drug, Aduhelm.&nbsp;In thisMotley Fool Livevideorecorded on June 9, Motley Fool contributors Keith Speights and Brian Orelli discuss one reason why Biogen isn't a buy after its key FDA victory.<blockquote>以下是一位资深医疗保健专家的观点。百健（纳斯达克股票代码：BIIB）对于预期美国股市的投资者来说是一个巨大的赢家。美国食品药品监督管理局（FDA）批准其阿尔茨海默病药物Aduhelm。在这杂色傻瓜现场录像录制于6月9日Motley Fool 撰稿人 Keith Speights 和 Brian Orelli 讨论了 Biogen 在 FDA 取得关键胜利后不值得购买的一个原因。</blockquote> Keith Speights:Let's segue then to the obvious question here. The question that a lot of investors are asking now is, \"Should I buy Biogen&nbsp;stock after this big FDA approval for its Alzheimer's disease drug?\" Brian, what should investors be factoring in to their decision making process right now? What's your take on whether or not Biogen is a buy right now?<blockquote>基思·斯佩茨：那么让我们继续讨论这里显而易见的问题。现在很多投资者都在问的问题是，“在 FDA 批准其阿尔茨海默病药物后，我应该购买 Biogen 的股票吗？”Brian，投资者现在在决策过程中应该考虑什么？您对百健现在是否值得购买有何看法？</blockquote> Brian Orelli:From a valuation standpoint, it's easy to look at historical data and see where they've been trading. I tend to look at price-to-sales just because drug companies, if you use the earnings, it's a little more difficult because they have a lot of one-time events and acquisitions and things like that and licensing deals that throw off their GAAP earnings. Then if you're looking at historical earnings, they usually don't back those out, so I use price-to-sales as a metric.<blockquote>布莱恩·奥雷利：从估值的角度来看，很容易查看历史数据并了解它们的交易地点。我倾向于关注销售额比，因为制药公司，如果你使用收益，就会有点困难，因为他们有很多一次性事件和收购之类的事情，以及许可交易，都会影响他们的 GAAP 收益。然后，如果你看历史收益，他们通常不会支持这些，所以我使用市销率作为衡量标准。</blockquote> Biogen is trading at least after Monday's, after Monday's jump, it was at 4.9 price-to-sales ratio. Last time it traded at that level was in the 2018, 2019 time frame, and at that point, revenue was hovering around 10% growth.<blockquote>百健至少在周一之后仍在交易，周一上涨后，市销率为 4.9。上一次交易达到该水平是在 2018 年和 2019 年，当时收入增长徘徊在 10% 左右。</blockquote> To justify this price-to-sales ratio, you have to expect that sales are going to grow by 10% per year. Revenue was $13.45 billion in 2020. You need to get to $14.8 billion to get to that 10% growth. Guidance for next year is for it to drop to $10.45 billion to $10.75 billion, and they had already factored in modest revenue from Aduhelm in 2021.<blockquote>为了证明这个市销率是合理的，你必须预计销售额每年将增长10%。2020年收入为134.5亿美元。你需要达到148亿美元才能实现10%的增长。明年的指导是将其降至 104.5 亿美元至 107.5 亿美元，他们已经考虑了 2021 年 Aduhelm 的适度收入。</blockquote> At the high end, Biogen needs $4 billion in sales to justify the current valuation. Four billion would be completely reasonable for an Alzheimer's disease drug, and $10 billion would probably be reasonable, but that would be a drug that actually helps patients. As we've said, there's not enough data to know whether Aduhelm actually helps patients.<blockquote>在高端领域，百健需要 40 亿美元的销售额来证明当前估值的合理性。对于一种阿尔茨海默病药物来说，40亿美元是完全合理的，100亿美元可能也是合理的，但这将是一种真正帮助患者的药物。正如我们所说，没有足够的数据来了解 Aduhelm 是否实际上帮助了患者。</blockquote> Medicare, they've got the drug approved so that's good, but they need to get the doctors to prescribe it, and they need to get insurers to cover it. Medicare will probably cover it, but it's an infused product and that means it's covered under Medicare Part B, B as in boy, not D as in drugs. That comes with a 20% copay after reaching the deductible. We're talking about $10,000 for the patients they're going to have to pay on the drug. That's going to really limit sales.<blockquote>医疗保险，他们已经批准了这种药物，所以这很好，但他们需要让医生开处方，他们需要让保险公司承保。医疗保险可能会承保它，但它是一种输注产品，这意味着它由医疗保险 B 部分承保，B 与男孩相同，而不是药物相同。达到免赔额后需要支付 20% 的共付额。我们说的是病人需要支付10,000美元的药物费用。这将真正限制销售。</blockquote> If you want to look at it at a different way, if you assume the valuation already factors in the fall to around $10.5 billion and then you are looking for 10% growth from there, now you only need $1 billion or so in sales to justify that growth. Maybe that seems a little more doable, but then that assumes that the revenue from the multiple sclerosis drugs, Tecfidera and Rituxan, that are causing the drop this year, and that you have to assume that's going to just stop.<blockquote>如果你想从不同的角度来看，如果你假设估值已经考虑到下跌至 105 亿美元左右，然后你希望从那里实现 10% 的增长，那么现在你只需要 10 亿美元左右的销售额来证明这种增长是合理的。也许这看起来更可行一点，但前提是多发性硬化症药物 Tecfidera 和 Rituxan 的收入导致了今年的下降，并且你必须假设这种情况将会停止。</blockquote> I don't think that's going to stop, so that means either they're going to generate more than $1 billion to justify 10% growth from 2021-2022. Very long story short, I have a hard time seeing the value of investing at this level.<blockquote>我认为这种情况不会停止，所以这意味着他们将产生超过 10 亿美元的收入，以证明 2021 年至 2022 年 10% 的增长是合理的。长话短说，我很难看到这个水平的投资价值。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Biogen Isn't a Buy After Its Alzheimer's Drug Approval<blockquote>为什么百健的阿尔茨海默病药物获得批准后不值得购买</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Biogen Isn't a Buy After Its Alzheimer's Drug Approval<blockquote>为什么百健的阿尔茨海默病药物获得批准后不值得购买</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMotley Fool2021-06-21 17:32\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Here's one longtime healthcare expert's perspective. Biogen(NASDAQ:BIIB)has been a huge winner for investors who owned the stock in anticipation of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of its Alzheimer's disease drug, Aduhelm.&nbsp;In thisMotley Fool Livevideorecorded on June 9, Motley Fool contributors Keith Speights and Brian Orelli discuss one reason why Biogen isn't a buy after its key FDA victory.<blockquote>以下是一位资深医疗保健专家的观点。百健（纳斯达克股票代码：BIIB）对于预期美国股市的投资者来说是一个巨大的赢家。美国食品药品监督管理局（FDA）批准其阿尔茨海默病药物Aduhelm。在这杂色傻瓜现场录像录制于6月9日Motley Fool 撰稿人 Keith Speights 和 Brian Orelli 讨论了 Biogen 在 FDA 取得关键胜利后不值得购买的一个原因。</blockquote> Keith Speights:Let's segue then to the obvious question here. The question that a lot of investors are asking now is, \"Should I buy Biogen&nbsp;stock after this big FDA approval for its Alzheimer's disease drug?\" Brian, what should investors be factoring in to their decision making process right now? What's your take on whether or not Biogen is a buy right now?<blockquote>基思·斯佩茨：那么让我们继续讨论这里显而易见的问题。现在很多投资者都在问的问题是，“在 FDA 批准其阿尔茨海默病药物后，我应该购买 Biogen 的股票吗？”Brian，投资者现在在决策过程中应该考虑什么？您对百健现在是否值得购买有何看法？</blockquote> Brian Orelli:From a valuation standpoint, it's easy to look at historical data and see where they've been trading. I tend to look at price-to-sales just because drug companies, if you use the earnings, it's a little more difficult because they have a lot of one-time events and acquisitions and things like that and licensing deals that throw off their GAAP earnings. Then if you're looking at historical earnings, they usually don't back those out, so I use price-to-sales as a metric.<blockquote>布莱恩·奥雷利：从估值的角度来看，很容易查看历史数据并了解它们的交易地点。我倾向于关注销售额比，因为制药公司，如果你使用收益，就会有点困难，因为他们有很多一次性事件和收购之类的事情，以及许可交易，都会影响他们的 GAAP 收益。然后，如果你看历史收益，他们通常不会支持这些，所以我使用市销率作为衡量标准。</blockquote> Biogen is trading at least after Monday's, after Monday's jump, it was at 4.9 price-to-sales ratio. Last time it traded at that level was in the 2018, 2019 time frame, and at that point, revenue was hovering around 10% growth.<blockquote>百健至少在周一之后仍在交易，周一上涨后，市销率为 4.9。上一次交易达到该水平是在 2018 年和 2019 年，当时收入增长徘徊在 10% 左右。</blockquote> To justify this price-to-sales ratio, you have to expect that sales are going to grow by 10% per year. Revenue was $13.45 billion in 2020. You need to get to $14.8 billion to get to that 10% growth. Guidance for next year is for it to drop to $10.45 billion to $10.75 billion, and they had already factored in modest revenue from Aduhelm in 2021.<blockquote>为了证明这个市销率是合理的，你必须预计销售额每年将增长10%。2020年收入为134.5亿美元。你需要达到148亿美元才能实现10%的增长。明年的指导是将其降至 104.5 亿美元至 107.5 亿美元，他们已经考虑了 2021 年 Aduhelm 的适度收入。</blockquote> At the high end, Biogen needs $4 billion in sales to justify the current valuation. Four billion would be completely reasonable for an Alzheimer's disease drug, and $10 billion would probably be reasonable, but that would be a drug that actually helps patients. As we've said, there's not enough data to know whether Aduhelm actually helps patients.<blockquote>在高端领域，百健需要 40 亿美元的销售额来证明当前估值的合理性。对于一种阿尔茨海默病药物来说，40亿美元是完全合理的，100亿美元可能也是合理的，但这将是一种真正帮助患者的药物。正如我们所说，没有足够的数据来了解 Aduhelm 是否实际上帮助了患者。</blockquote> Medicare, they've got the drug approved so that's good, but they need to get the doctors to prescribe it, and they need to get insurers to cover it. Medicare will probably cover it, but it's an infused product and that means it's covered under Medicare Part B, B as in boy, not D as in drugs. That comes with a 20% copay after reaching the deductible. We're talking about $10,000 for the patients they're going to have to pay on the drug. That's going to really limit sales.<blockquote>医疗保险，他们已经批准了这种药物，所以这很好，但他们需要让医生开处方，他们需要让保险公司承保。医疗保险可能会承保它，但它是一种输注产品，这意味着它由医疗保险 B 部分承保，B 与男孩相同，而不是药物相同。达到免赔额后需要支付 20% 的共付额。我们说的是病人需要支付10,000美元的药物费用。这将真正限制销售。</blockquote> If you want to look at it at a different way, if you assume the valuation already factors in the fall to around $10.5 billion and then you are looking for 10% growth from there, now you only need $1 billion or so in sales to justify that growth. Maybe that seems a little more doable, but then that assumes that the revenue from the multiple sclerosis drugs, Tecfidera and Rituxan, that are causing the drop this year, and that you have to assume that's going to just stop.<blockquote>如果你想从不同的角度来看，如果你假设估值已经考虑到下跌至 105 亿美元左右，然后你希望从那里实现 10% 的增长，那么现在你只需要 10 亿美元左右的销售额来证明这种增长是合理的。也许这看起来更可行一点，但前提是多发性硬化症药物 Tecfidera 和 Rituxan 的收入导致了今年的下降，并且你必须假设这种情况将会停止。</blockquote> I don't think that's going to stop, so that means either they're going to generate more than $1 billion to justify 10% growth from 2021-2022. Very long story short, I have a hard time seeing the value of investing at this level.<blockquote>我认为这种情况不会停止，所以这意味着他们将产生超过 10 亿美元的收入，以证明 2021 年至 2022 年 10% 的增长是合理的。长话短说，我很难看到这个水平的投资价值。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/20/why-biogen-isnt-a-buy-after-its-alzheimers-drug-ap/\">Motley Fool</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BIIB":"渤健公司"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/20/why-biogen-isnt-a-buy-after-its-alzheimers-drug-ap/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136994311","content_text":"Here's one longtime healthcare expert's perspective.\n\nBiogen(NASDAQ:BIIB)has been a huge winner for investors who owned the stock in anticipation of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of its Alzheimer's disease drug, Aduhelm. In thisMotley Fool Livevideorecorded on June 9, Motley Fool contributors Keith Speights and Brian Orelli discuss one reason why Biogen isn't a buy after its key FDA victory.\nKeith Speights:Let's segue then to the obvious question here. The question that a lot of investors are asking now is, \"Should I buy Biogen stock after this big FDA approval for its Alzheimer's disease drug?\" Brian, what should investors be factoring in to their decision making process right now? What's your take on whether or not Biogen is a buy right now?\nBrian Orelli:From a valuation standpoint, it's easy to look at historical data and see where they've been trading. I tend to look at price-to-sales just because drug companies, if you use the earnings, it's a little more difficult because they have a lot of one-time events and acquisitions and things like that and licensing deals that throw off their GAAP earnings. Then if you're looking at historical earnings, they usually don't back those out, so I use price-to-sales as a metric.\nBiogen is trading at least after Monday's, after Monday's jump, it was at 4.9 price-to-sales ratio. Last time it traded at that level was in the 2018, 2019 time frame, and at that point, revenue was hovering around 10% growth.\nTo justify this price-to-sales ratio, you have to expect that sales are going to grow by 10% per year. Revenue was $13.45 billion in 2020. You need to get to $14.8 billion to get to that 10% growth. Guidance for next year is for it to drop to $10.45 billion to $10.75 billion, and they had already factored in modest revenue from Aduhelm in 2021.\nAt the high end, Biogen needs $4 billion in sales to justify the current valuation. Four billion would be completely reasonable for an Alzheimer's disease drug, and $10 billion would probably be reasonable, but that would be a drug that actually helps patients. As we've said, there's not enough data to know whether Aduhelm actually helps patients.\nMedicare, they've got the drug approved so that's good, but they need to get the doctors to prescribe it, and they need to get insurers to cover it. Medicare will probably cover it, but it's an infused product and that means it's covered under Medicare Part B, B as in boy, not D as in drugs. That comes with a 20% copay after reaching the deductible. We're talking about $10,000 for the patients they're going to have to pay on the drug. That's going to really limit sales.\nIf you want to look at it at a different way, if you assume the valuation already factors in the fall to around $10.5 billion and then you are looking for 10% growth from there, now you only need $1 billion or so in sales to justify that growth. Maybe that seems a little more doable, but then that assumes that the revenue from the multiple sclerosis drugs, Tecfidera and Rituxan, that are causing the drop this year, and that you have to assume that's going to just stop.\nI don't think that's going to stop, so that means either they're going to generate more than $1 billion to justify 10% growth from 2021-2022. Very long story short, I have a hard time seeing the value of investing at this level.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIIB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2181,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/167561926"}