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2021-06-18

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Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":166625148,"tweetId":"166625148","gmtCreate":1624007281884,"gmtModify":1631892265726,"author":{"id":3570103506417414,"idStr":"3570103506417414","authorId":3570103506417414,"authorIdStr":"3570103506417414","name":"IssacWarriar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69435c3a9f81f478bd3054a26612571f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>wow</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>wow</body></html>","text":"wow","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166625148","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管新冠肺炎 (Covid-19) 感染率仍然很高，而且本国经济复苏不完整，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这迫使一些央行提高利率。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美国联邦储备委员会将如何应对通胀上升，担心会陷入美国经济非凡扩张的横流之中。随着美国经济升温，美联储官员表示预计将在 2023 年底前加息，比 3 月份的预期更早，全球股市周四上涨。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模几乎占世界国内生产总值的四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球决策产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计今年美国经济将增长 7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。由于世界各地的工厂都在努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品价格都在飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>“牛津经济研究所驻伦敦经济学家塔玛拉-巴西克-瓦西里耶夫（Tamara Basic Vasiljev）说：”鉴于大流行病带来的种种后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通货膨胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，并对经济复苏起到了制约作用。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些国家的产品相对于美国出口产品变得更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长大多认为，通胀上升的时期将是暂时的，除非消费者预计通胀会持续下去并要求更高的工资。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然各国央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>“法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉-斯佩兰萨（Luigi Speranza）说：”我认为，这种对价格的暂时性冲击很有可能变得更加持久。斯佩兰扎指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判在今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家说，欧洲和日本的央行需要与美联储的鸽派政策保持一致。如果通胀比预期更持久，美联储周围的微妙舞蹈可能会失败，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>“贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加-巴特施（Elga Bartsch）说：”为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样鸽派，由于通胀和增长动态不同，美联储可能会陷入困境。</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的余地。即使是短暂的通货膨胀也会给本国货币带来沉重负担，损害企业和家庭偿还债务的能力，而这些债务通常以美元或欧元计价。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已发出信号，将小心避免重蹈2013年 “缩减规模发脾气”的覆辙，当时，在美国央行出人意料地表示正在考虑削减刺激计划之后，发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>“美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）周三表示：”因此，我们对这一过程的意图是，它将是有序、有条不紊和透明的。“我只能告诉你，我们看到了提前沟通我们的想法的真正价值。我们会努力说清楚”。</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方向，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息 0.75 个百分点，并表示在应对 8% 以上的通胀率之际，未来可能会进一步加息。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次将基准利率上调至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速升至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。本周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉-纳比乌林娜（Elvira Nabiullina）表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>“纳比乌林娜女士在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时说：”相当长一段时间以来，我们一直将利率保持在低水平，以确保我们不会掐断经济复苏的翅膀。“现在是时候提高利率了，以应对不断变化的情况和不断上升的通货膨胀”。</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其中央银行在 3 月份将主要利率大幅上调至 19%，以应对两位数的通货膨胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品价格上涨，提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐--俄罗斯人喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜--这对许多俄罗斯人来说是一个风向标。今年以来，土豆、白菜和胡萝卜的价格已经上涨了60%到80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大比例的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通货膨胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚半岛和韩国央行已表示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四表示将在9月份加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行病期间，它们并没有像法国和西班牙等欧洲大国那样遭受大规模的经济萎缩，但通货膨胀率却在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官伊恩-斯蒂利（Iain Stealey）表示，美联储很可能会设法避免 “缩减规模恐慌 ”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“斯蒂利先生说：”这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程.考虑到通货膨胀的意外上行，很难不这样做。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>“法国兴业银行（Société Générale）首席全球经济学家克劳斯-巴德尔（Klaus Baader）说：”这种让通货膨胀升温的想法.意味着，只有当你已经有通货膨胀问题时，你才会意识到你有通货膨胀问题。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管新冠肺炎 (Covid-19) 感染率仍然很高，而且本国经济复苏不完整，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这迫使一些央行提高利率。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美国联邦储备委员会将如何应对通胀上升，担心会陷入美国经济非凡扩张的横流之中。随着美国经济升温，美联储官员表示预计将在 2023 年底前加息，比 3 月份的预期更早，全球股市周四上涨。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模几乎占世界国内生产总值的四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球决策产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计今年美国经济将增长 7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。由于世界各地的工厂都在努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品价格都在飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>“牛津经济研究所驻伦敦经济学家塔玛拉-巴西克-瓦西里耶夫（Tamara Basic Vasiljev）说：”鉴于大流行病带来的种种后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通货膨胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，并对经济复苏起到了制约作用。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些国家的产品相对于美国出口产品变得更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长大多认为，通胀上升的时期将是暂时的，除非消费者预计通胀会持续下去并要求更高的工资。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然各国央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>“法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉-斯佩兰萨（Luigi Speranza）说：”我认为，这种对价格的暂时性冲击很有可能变得更加持久。斯佩兰扎指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判在今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家说，欧洲和日本的央行需要与美联储的鸽派政策保持一致。如果通胀比预期更持久，美联储周围的微妙舞蹈可能会失败，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>“贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加-巴特施（Elga Bartsch）说：”为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样鸽派，由于通胀和增长动态不同，美联储可能会陷入困境。</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的余地。即使是短暂的通货膨胀也会给本国货币带来沉重负担，损害企业和家庭偿还债务的能力，而这些债务通常以美元或欧元计价。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已发出信号，将小心避免重蹈2013年 “缩减规模发脾气”的覆辙，当时，在美国央行出人意料地表示正在考虑削减刺激计划之后，发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>“美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）周三表示：”因此，我们对这一过程的意图是，它将是有序、有条不紊和透明的。“我只能告诉你，我们看到了提前沟通我们的想法的真正价值。我们会努力说清楚”。</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方向，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息 0.75 个百分点，并表示在应对 8% 以上的通胀率之际，未来可能会进一步加息。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次将基准利率上调至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速升至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。本周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉-纳比乌林娜（Elvira Nabiullina）表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>“纳比乌林娜女士在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时说：”相当长一段时间以来，我们一直将利率保持在低水平，以确保我们不会掐断经济复苏的翅膀。“现在是时候提高利率了，以应对不断变化的情况和不断上升的通货膨胀”。</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其中央银行在 3 月份将主要利率大幅上调至 19%，以应对两位数的通货膨胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品价格上涨，提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐--俄罗斯人喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜--这对许多俄罗斯人来说是一个风向标。今年以来，土豆、白菜和胡萝卜的价格已经上涨了60%到80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大比例的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通货膨胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚半岛和韩国央行已表示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四表示将在9月份加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行病期间，它们并没有像法国和西班牙等欧洲大国那样遭受大规模的经济萎缩，但通货膨胀率却在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官伊恩-斯蒂利（Iain Stealey）表示，美联储很可能会设法避免 “缩减规模恐慌 ”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“斯蒂利先生说：”这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程.考虑到通货膨胀的意外上行，很难不这样做。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>“法国兴业银行（Société Générale）首席全球经济学家克劳斯-巴德尔（Klaus Baader）说：”这种让通货膨胀升温的想法.意味着，只有当你已经有通货膨胀问题时，你才会意识到你有通货膨胀问题。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2617,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/166625148"}