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2021-06-17

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Fisker: One Of The Best Pure-Play EV Bets<blockquote>菲斯克：最好的纯电动汽车赌注之一</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":161201447,"tweetId":"161201447","gmtCreate":1623926625389,"gmtModify":1634025799327,"author":{"id":3556107827397320,"idStr":"3556107827397320","authorId":3556107827397320,"authorIdStr":"3556107827397320","name":"fuzhi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe98c60fd97a926f8de4c5f65bef4a4","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Cool</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Cool</body></html>","text":"Cool","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161201447","repostId":1184912441,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184912441","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623911473,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1184912441?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 14:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fisker: One Of The Best Pure-Play EV Bets<blockquote>菲斯克：最好的纯电动汽车赌注之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184912441","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFisker is on track to deliver its first vehicle by November 2022 and in line with the previ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Fisker is on track to deliver its first vehicle by November 2022 and in line with the previously laid down cost structure.</li> <li>The finalized Foxconn deal of mass-producing an electric vehicle justifies the current valuation.</li> <li>The announcement of a climate-neutral vehicle goal by 2027 strengthens the long-term outlook.</li> <li>Fisker has a robust balance sheet position to support significant investments in product development and innovation.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9723e0a794926349a61ee7329622c779\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"571\">Chesky_W/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Fisker 有望在 2022 年 11 月之前交付第一辆车，并符合之前制定的成本结构。</li><li>富士康最终敲定的电动汽车量产交易证明了当前的估值是合理的。</li><li>到 2027 年实现气候中和汽车目标的宣布强化了长期前景。</li><li>Fisker 拥有稳健的资产负债表状况，可支持产品开发和创新方面的大量投资。</li></ul>Chesky_W/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Fisker (FSR) is up more than 65% since the publication of our previous article on Fisker last month (Fisker: High Risk, Very High Return) with a “very bullish” rating. Therefore, we believe now was the time to revisit the stock and revise our rating. After revisiting the stock, we continue to remain bullish as the mispricing persists and valuation fails to incorporate the long-term growth potential of the stock. However, valuation offers favorable risk-reward metrics to enter the stock but does not offer the same extraordinary returns with low risk as before, therefore, we would now reduce the rating from \"very bullish\" to \"bullish\".<blockquote>自上个月我们发表上一篇关于菲斯克的文章（《菲斯克：高风险，非常高回报》）以来，菲斯克（FSR）已上涨 65% 以上，评级为 “非常看涨 ”。因此，我们认为现在是重新审视该股并修改我们的评级的时候了。在重新审视该股后，我们继续保持看涨，因为错误定价持续存在，估值未能纳入该股的长期增长潜力。然而，估值为进入该股票提供了有利的风险回报指标，但并不能提供与以前相同的低风险非凡回报，因此，我们现在将评级从“非常看涨”下调至“看涨”。</blockquote> We like Fisker's visionary leadership, competitive product, asset-light business model, and solid partnerships. This article focuses more on updates after our previous coverage, risk reward metrics at current valuation, and strengths that can help expand product portfolio. If you haven’t read our previous article, we highly recommend having a quick look to gain a better understanding of the overall business and strengths.<blockquote>我们喜欢菲斯克富有远见的领导力、有竞争力的产品、轻资产商业模式和稳固的合作伙伴关系。本文更多地关注我们之前报道后的更新、当前估值的风险回报指标以及有助于扩展产品组合的优势。如果您还没有阅读我们之前的文章，我们强烈建议您快速浏览一下，以便更好地了解公司的整体业务和优势。</blockquote> Business Summary<blockquote>业务概要</blockquote> Fisker Inc. is a California-based EV company focused on designing and developing electric vehicles. Its first vehicle, Fisker Ocean, an electric SUV, is expected to be ready for sale by November 2022. The manufacturing process of Fisker Ocean is outsourced to Magna (MGA) that has an annual capacity to produce 240,000 units. The company went public in October 2020 through a reverse merger with a SPAC. (Source)<blockquote>Fisker Inc. 是一家总部位于加利福尼亚州的电动汽车公司，专注于设计和开发电动汽车。其首款车型 Fisker Ocean 是一款电动 SUV，预计将于 2022 年 11 月上市销售。Fisker Ocean 的制造工艺外包给 Magna (MGA)，后者的年产能为 240,000 台。该公司于2020年10月通过与SPAC反向合并上市。（来源）</blockquote> What changed since our previous coverage on Fisker?<blockquote>自从我们之前报道菲斯克以来，发生了什么变化？</blockquote> The company signed an MOU with Foxconn (OTC:FXCOF) in February 2021, which later got converted into an agreementin May 2021. As per the agreement, Foxconn and Fisker will co-develop and manufacture an electric vehicle that would hit the market by Q4 2023 and will be sold under the Fisker brand name in North America, Europe, China, and India. The expected capacity of the vehicle would be 250,000 annually worldwide. The vehicle would be priced under $30,000 and would be a five-seater.<blockquote>该公司于2021年2月与富士康（场外交易代码：FXCOF）签署了谅解备忘录，随后于2021年5月转化为协议。根据协议，富士康和菲斯克将共同开发和制造一款电动汽车，该汽车将于2023年第四季度上市，并将以菲斯克品牌在北美、欧洲、中国和印度销售。该车辆的全球年产能预计为 250,000 辆。该车售价将低于 30,000 美元，并且是一款五座车。</blockquote> In the recent&nbsp;stockholders’ annual meeting, Fisker reassured that it was on course to deliver its Fisker Ocean in November 2022. It also reassured that it has sourced majority of parts for its first vehicle, and the cost structure is in line with expectations laid out by the company last year. The company announced its goal to produce a fully climate-neutral vehicle by 2027. It also announced plans to exhibit its Fisker Ocean vehicle at the LA Auto Show in November 2021.<blockquote>在最近的股东年会上，菲斯克保证将于 2022 年 11 月交付菲斯克海洋。它还保证，它已经为其第一辆车采购了大部分零部件，并且成本结构符合该公司去年提出的预期。该公司宣布其目标是到 2027 年生产一款完全气候中和的汽车。它还宣布计划在 2021 年 11 月的洛杉矶车展上展出其 Fisker Ocean 车辆。</blockquote> Vision to make the world’s most sustainable vehicles<blockquote>打造全球最可持续汽车的愿景</blockquote> The company was founded with a vision to build the most sustainable vehicles in the world. So far, the company has been on track with its progress. Fisker Ocean has a solar roof that besides delivering a higher range to the vehicle, also generates a free of cost and greenest form of energy source. The company also uses recycled material within its car. In line with its vision, the company set a goal to produce a fully climate-neutral vehicle by 2027 with net-zero greenhouse gases over its lifetime.<blockquote>该公司成立的愿景是制造世界上最可持续的汽车。到目前为止，该公司的进展一直步入正轨。Fisker Ocean有一个太阳能车顶，除了为车辆提供更高的续航里程外，还产生了一种免费和最环保的能源。该公司还在其汽车内使用回收材料。根据其愿景，该公司设定了一个目标，即到 2027 年生产一款完全气候中和的汽车，并在其使用寿命内实现温室气体净零排放。</blockquote> Well-positioned to expand vehicle portfolio<blockquote>处于有利地位以扩大车辆组合</blockquote> Two major partnerships with international contract manufacturers (Foxconn and Magna) uniquely positioned Fisker to grow its vehicle portfolio and reach its goal of four vehicles by 2025. The partnerships enable it to make vehicle design and development the center of attention for the company, have an asset-light business model, build confidence among top suppliers, and enhance negotiation capabilities with suppliers.<blockquote>与国际合同制造商（富士康和麦格纳）的两个主要合作伙伴关系使菲斯克处于独特的地位，可以扩大其车辆产品组合，并在 2025 年实现四辆车的目标。合作伙伴关系使其能够将车辆设计和开发作为公司关注的焦点，拥有轻资产的商业模式，建立顶级供应商之间的信心，并增强与供应商的谈判能力。</blockquote> In collaboration with Fisker, Magna will also&nbsp;develop a new ADAS feature&nbsp;that includes digital-imaging radar technology. The technology would be coming with Fisker Ocean initially and can be levered to all the upcoming models of Fisker and will play a material role in differentiating Fisker from other automotive manufacturers. The company is also expected to have one of the fastest development times for a vehicle of 2.5 years which can be more than 4 years for most of the automotive OEMs.<blockquote>麦格纳还将与菲斯克合作开发一项新的 ADAS 功能，其中包括数字成像雷达技术。该技术最初将随 Fisker Ocean 一起推出，并可用于 Fisker 所有即将推出的车型，并将在 Fisker 与其他汽车制造商区分开来方面发挥重要作用。该公司还预计拥有最快的车辆开发时间之一，为 2.5 年，而大多数汽车原始设备制造商的开发时间可能超过 4 年。</blockquote> We believe that the company is well-positioned to grow its portfolio by leveraging its existing technology, partnerships, and unique asset-light business model. It outsources multiple areas where it believes that differentiation is not important such as manufacturing process, fleet management services, lease financing, other related services, etc. This helps the company focus primarily on product innovation and development, unlike other companies with their hands entirely filled.<blockquote>我们相信，该公司处于有利地位，可以通过利用其现有技术、合作伙伴关系和独特的轻资产商业模式来扩大其投资组合。它将其认为差异化并不重要的多个领域外包，例如制造流程、车队管理服务、租赁融资、其他相关服务等。这有助于公司主要专注于产品创新和开发，不像其他公司完全忙碌。</blockquote> More upside potential<blockquote>更大的上行潜力</blockquote> As we discussed in a previous report, the Foxconn deal alone can generate $3.75Bn+ annually in revenue (after 3 to 5 years). Similarly, based on conservative estimates of 50,000 Fisker Ocean vehicles at an average price of $50K, Fisker can generate $2.5Bn annually starting 2023 from Fisker Ocean. Both combined are still greater than the current market capitalization of $5.5Bn despite a 65%+ price return in the last one month.<blockquote>正如我们在之前的报告中讨论的那样，仅富士康交易一项每年就可以产生超过 37.5 亿美元的收入（3 至 5 年后）。同样，根据平均价格为 5 万美元的 50,000 辆 Fisker Ocean 汽车的保守估计，从 2023 年开始，Fisker 每年可以从 Fisker Ocean 获得 25 亿美元的收入。尽管过去一个月的价格回报率超过 65%，但两者加起来仍高于当前 55 亿美元的市值。</blockquote> Furthermore, the company can deliver more than 20% growth in the medium-term (after 2025) even after the above two revenue sources are realized. This is because the company can continue to grow by adding more vehicles to its portfolio with the help of an asset-light business model, visionary leadership, and strong partnership.<blockquote>此外，即使实现上述两个收入来源，该公司在中期内（2025年后）仍可实现20%以上的增长。这是因为在轻资产商业模式、富有远见的领导力和强大的合作伙伴关系的帮助下，该公司可以通过在其投资组合中添加更多车辆来继续增长。</blockquote> The stock can justify its valuation based on estimates of barely two vehicles with a forward P/S ratio (FY3) of less than 1 as per our estimates discussed above. Announcement of the other two vehicles' development as per the company's defined 2025 goal would exponentially boost the company’s outlook and shareholder’s returns.<blockquote>根据上述我们的估计，该股可以根据对几乎两只远期市盈率（第三季度）低于 1 的车辆的估计来证明其估值的合理性。根据公司确定的 2025 年目标，宣布开发另外两款车型将大大提高公司的前景和股东回报。</blockquote> Risk to Thesis<blockquote>论文风险</blockquote> Rising short interest<blockquote>空头兴趣上升</blockquote> Short interest has gone up significantly in recent months. Increased pressure from short sellers can push the stock downwards. Besides that, Fisker can also become a victim of short-sellers' attacks due to its lack of revenue and salable product. Short-sellers might publish short-seller reports citing unproven concerns and push the stock downwards for personal gains. This can lead to tarnishing the firm's reputation, which can reduce the ability to secure additional financing, credibility among suppliers, disrupt existing partnerships, as well as impact demand for its vehicles.<blockquote>近几个月来，空头兴趣大幅上升。卖空者压力的增加可能会推动股价下跌。除此之外，由于缺乏收入和可销售的产品，菲斯克还可能成为卖空者攻击的受害者。卖空者可能会发布卖空报告，引用未经证实的担忧，并为了个人利益而压低股价。这可能会损害公司的声誉，从而降低获得额外融资的能力、供应商的信誉、破坏现有的合作伙伴关系，并影响对其车辆的需求。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c3ae9e44bb7e2d5ebf034087945deef\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"355\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> The stock continues to offer immense upside potential at the current valuation based on its growth trajectory. Asset-light business model ensures that equity dilution would be insignificant as capital requirements are lower than other EV startups like Workhorse (WKHS) and Lordstown (RIDE) (that are at the risk of facing liquidity crisis when they enter mass production). Moreover, Fisker has zero balance sheet debt and strong liquidity position of $985Mn to support R&amp;D, CapEx, and Marketing costs. Fisker is still one of the best pure-play EV bets currently in the market despite the recent boom in stock price. We expect the stock to double in the next 2-3 years.<blockquote>根据其增长轨迹，该股在当前估值下继续提供巨大的上涨潜力。轻资产商业模式确保股权稀释微不足道，因为资本要求低于 Workhorse (WKHS) 和 Lordstown (RIDE) 等其他电动汽车初创公司（进入量产时面临面临流动性危机的风险）。此外，Fisker 的资产负债表债务为零，拥有 9.85 亿美元的强大流动性头寸，以支持研发、资本支出和营销成本。尽管最近股价上涨，但菲斯克仍然是目前市场上最好的纯电动汽车赌注之一。我们预计该股将在未来 2-3 年内翻一番。</blockquote> The stock would also see increased investments and recognition in the near term asit will be added to Russel 3000 index, which can lead to upside potential for stockholders.<blockquote>该股的投资和认可度也会增加，在短期内asit将被纳入罗素3000指数，这可能会给股东带来上涨潜力。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fisker: One Of The Best Pure-Play EV Bets<blockquote>菲斯克：最好的纯电动汽车赌注之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFisker: One Of The Best Pure-Play EV Bets<blockquote>菲斯克：最好的纯电动汽车赌注之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-17 14:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Fisker is on track to deliver its first vehicle by November 2022 and in line with the previously laid down cost structure.</li> <li>The finalized Foxconn deal of mass-producing an electric vehicle justifies the current valuation.</li> <li>The announcement of a climate-neutral vehicle goal by 2027 strengthens the long-term outlook.</li> <li>Fisker has a robust balance sheet position to support significant investments in product development and innovation.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9723e0a794926349a61ee7329622c779\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"571\">Chesky_W/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Fisker 有望在 2022 年 11 月之前交付第一辆车，并符合之前制定的成本结构。</li><li>富士康最终敲定的电动汽车量产交易证明了当前的估值是合理的。</li><li>到 2027 年实现气候中和汽车目标的宣布强化了长期前景。</li><li>Fisker 拥有稳健的资产负债表状况，可支持产品开发和创新方面的大量投资。</li></ul>Chesky_W/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Fisker (FSR) is up more than 65% since the publication of our previous article on Fisker last month (Fisker: High Risk, Very High Return) with a “very bullish” rating. Therefore, we believe now was the time to revisit the stock and revise our rating. After revisiting the stock, we continue to remain bullish as the mispricing persists and valuation fails to incorporate the long-term growth potential of the stock. However, valuation offers favorable risk-reward metrics to enter the stock but does not offer the same extraordinary returns with low risk as before, therefore, we would now reduce the rating from \"very bullish\" to \"bullish\".<blockquote>自上个月我们发表上一篇关于菲斯克的文章（《菲斯克：高风险，非常高回报》）以来，菲斯克（FSR）已上涨 65% 以上，评级为 “非常看涨 ”。因此，我们认为现在是重新审视该股并修改我们的评级的时候了。在重新审视该股后，我们继续保持看涨，因为错误定价持续存在，估值未能纳入该股的长期增长潜力。然而，估值为进入该股票提供了有利的风险回报指标，但并不能提供与以前相同的低风险非凡回报，因此，我们现在将评级从“非常看涨”下调至“看涨”。</blockquote> We like Fisker's visionary leadership, competitive product, asset-light business model, and solid partnerships. This article focuses more on updates after our previous coverage, risk reward metrics at current valuation, and strengths that can help expand product portfolio. If you haven’t read our previous article, we highly recommend having a quick look to gain a better understanding of the overall business and strengths.<blockquote>我们喜欢菲斯克富有远见的领导力、有竞争力的产品、轻资产商业模式和稳固的合作伙伴关系。本文更多地关注我们之前报道后的更新、当前估值的风险回报指标以及有助于扩展产品组合的优势。如果您还没有阅读我们之前的文章，我们强烈建议您快速浏览一下，以便更好地了解公司的整体业务和优势。</blockquote> Business Summary<blockquote>业务概要</blockquote> Fisker Inc. is a California-based EV company focused on designing and developing electric vehicles. Its first vehicle, Fisker Ocean, an electric SUV, is expected to be ready for sale by November 2022. The manufacturing process of Fisker Ocean is outsourced to Magna (MGA) that has an annual capacity to produce 240,000 units. The company went public in October 2020 through a reverse merger with a SPAC. (Source)<blockquote>Fisker Inc. 是一家总部位于加利福尼亚州的电动汽车公司，专注于设计和开发电动汽车。其首款车型 Fisker Ocean 是一款电动 SUV，预计将于 2022 年 11 月上市销售。Fisker Ocean 的制造工艺外包给 Magna (MGA)，后者的年产能为 240,000 台。该公司于2020年10月通过与SPAC反向合并上市。（来源）</blockquote> What changed since our previous coverage on Fisker?<blockquote>自从我们之前报道菲斯克以来，发生了什么变化？</blockquote> The company signed an MOU with Foxconn (OTC:FXCOF) in February 2021, which later got converted into an agreementin May 2021. As per the agreement, Foxconn and Fisker will co-develop and manufacture an electric vehicle that would hit the market by Q4 2023 and will be sold under the Fisker brand name in North America, Europe, China, and India. The expected capacity of the vehicle would be 250,000 annually worldwide. The vehicle would be priced under $30,000 and would be a five-seater.<blockquote>该公司于2021年2月与富士康（场外交易代码：FXCOF）签署了谅解备忘录，随后于2021年5月转化为协议。根据协议，富士康和菲斯克将共同开发和制造一款电动汽车，该汽车将于2023年第四季度上市，并将以菲斯克品牌在北美、欧洲、中国和印度销售。该车辆的全球年产能预计为 250,000 辆。该车售价将低于 30,000 美元，并且是一款五座车。</blockquote> In the recent&nbsp;stockholders’ annual meeting, Fisker reassured that it was on course to deliver its Fisker Ocean in November 2022. It also reassured that it has sourced majority of parts for its first vehicle, and the cost structure is in line with expectations laid out by the company last year. The company announced its goal to produce a fully climate-neutral vehicle by 2027. It also announced plans to exhibit its Fisker Ocean vehicle at the LA Auto Show in November 2021.<blockquote>在最近的股东年会上，菲斯克保证将于 2022 年 11 月交付菲斯克海洋。它还保证，它已经为其第一辆车采购了大部分零部件，并且成本结构符合该公司去年提出的预期。该公司宣布其目标是到 2027 年生产一款完全气候中和的汽车。它还宣布计划在 2021 年 11 月的洛杉矶车展上展出其 Fisker Ocean 车辆。</blockquote> Vision to make the world’s most sustainable vehicles<blockquote>打造全球最可持续汽车的愿景</blockquote> The company was founded with a vision to build the most sustainable vehicles in the world. So far, the company has been on track with its progress. Fisker Ocean has a solar roof that besides delivering a higher range to the vehicle, also generates a free of cost and greenest form of energy source. The company also uses recycled material within its car. In line with its vision, the company set a goal to produce a fully climate-neutral vehicle by 2027 with net-zero greenhouse gases over its lifetime.<blockquote>该公司成立的愿景是制造世界上最可持续的汽车。到目前为止，该公司的进展一直步入正轨。Fisker Ocean有一个太阳能车顶，除了为车辆提供更高的续航里程外，还产生了一种免费和最环保的能源。该公司还在其汽车内使用回收材料。根据其愿景，该公司设定了一个目标，即到 2027 年生产一款完全气候中和的汽车，并在其使用寿命内实现温室气体净零排放。</blockquote> Well-positioned to expand vehicle portfolio<blockquote>处于有利地位以扩大车辆组合</blockquote> Two major partnerships with international contract manufacturers (Foxconn and Magna) uniquely positioned Fisker to grow its vehicle portfolio and reach its goal of four vehicles by 2025. The partnerships enable it to make vehicle design and development the center of attention for the company, have an asset-light business model, build confidence among top suppliers, and enhance negotiation capabilities with suppliers.<blockquote>与国际合同制造商（富士康和麦格纳）的两个主要合作伙伴关系使菲斯克处于独特的地位，可以扩大其车辆产品组合，并在 2025 年实现四辆车的目标。合作伙伴关系使其能够将车辆设计和开发作为公司关注的焦点，拥有轻资产的商业模式，建立顶级供应商之间的信心，并增强与供应商的谈判能力。</blockquote> In collaboration with Fisker, Magna will also&nbsp;develop a new ADAS feature&nbsp;that includes digital-imaging radar technology. The technology would be coming with Fisker Ocean initially and can be levered to all the upcoming models of Fisker and will play a material role in differentiating Fisker from other automotive manufacturers. The company is also expected to have one of the fastest development times for a vehicle of 2.5 years which can be more than 4 years for most of the automotive OEMs.<blockquote>麦格纳还将与菲斯克合作开发一项新的 ADAS 功能，其中包括数字成像雷达技术。该技术最初将随 Fisker Ocean 一起推出，并可用于 Fisker 所有即将推出的车型，并将在 Fisker 与其他汽车制造商区分开来方面发挥重要作用。该公司还预计拥有最快的车辆开发时间之一，为 2.5 年，而大多数汽车原始设备制造商的开发时间可能超过 4 年。</blockquote> We believe that the company is well-positioned to grow its portfolio by leveraging its existing technology, partnerships, and unique asset-light business model. It outsources multiple areas where it believes that differentiation is not important such as manufacturing process, fleet management services, lease financing, other related services, etc. This helps the company focus primarily on product innovation and development, unlike other companies with their hands entirely filled.<blockquote>我们相信，该公司处于有利地位，可以通过利用其现有技术、合作伙伴关系和独特的轻资产商业模式来扩大其投资组合。它将其认为差异化并不重要的多个领域外包，例如制造流程、车队管理服务、租赁融资、其他相关服务等。这有助于公司主要专注于产品创新和开发，不像其他公司完全忙碌。</blockquote> More upside potential<blockquote>更大的上行潜力</blockquote> As we discussed in a previous report, the Foxconn deal alone can generate $3.75Bn+ annually in revenue (after 3 to 5 years). Similarly, based on conservative estimates of 50,000 Fisker Ocean vehicles at an average price of $50K, Fisker can generate $2.5Bn annually starting 2023 from Fisker Ocean. Both combined are still greater than the current market capitalization of $5.5Bn despite a 65%+ price return in the last one month.<blockquote>正如我们在之前的报告中讨论的那样，仅富士康交易一项每年就可以产生超过 37.5 亿美元的收入（3 至 5 年后）。同样，根据平均价格为 5 万美元的 50,000 辆 Fisker Ocean 汽车的保守估计，从 2023 年开始，Fisker 每年可以从 Fisker Ocean 获得 25 亿美元的收入。尽管过去一个月的价格回报率超过 65%，但两者加起来仍高于当前 55 亿美元的市值。</blockquote> Furthermore, the company can deliver more than 20% growth in the medium-term (after 2025) even after the above two revenue sources are realized. This is because the company can continue to grow by adding more vehicles to its portfolio with the help of an asset-light business model, visionary leadership, and strong partnership.<blockquote>此外，即使实现上述两个收入来源，该公司在中期内（2025年后）仍可实现20%以上的增长。这是因为在轻资产商业模式、富有远见的领导力和强大的合作伙伴关系的帮助下，该公司可以通过在其投资组合中添加更多车辆来继续增长。</blockquote> The stock can justify its valuation based on estimates of barely two vehicles with a forward P/S ratio (FY3) of less than 1 as per our estimates discussed above. Announcement of the other two vehicles' development as per the company's defined 2025 goal would exponentially boost the company’s outlook and shareholder’s returns.<blockquote>根据上述我们的估计，该股可以根据对几乎两只远期市盈率（第三季度）低于 1 的车辆的估计来证明其估值的合理性。根据公司确定的 2025 年目标，宣布开发另外两款车型将大大提高公司的前景和股东回报。</blockquote> Risk to Thesis<blockquote>论文风险</blockquote> Rising short interest<blockquote>空头兴趣上升</blockquote> Short interest has gone up significantly in recent months. Increased pressure from short sellers can push the stock downwards. Besides that, Fisker can also become a victim of short-sellers' attacks due to its lack of revenue and salable product. Short-sellers might publish short-seller reports citing unproven concerns and push the stock downwards for personal gains. This can lead to tarnishing the firm's reputation, which can reduce the ability to secure additional financing, credibility among suppliers, disrupt existing partnerships, as well as impact demand for its vehicles.<blockquote>近几个月来，空头兴趣大幅上升。卖空者压力的增加可能会推动股价下跌。除此之外，由于缺乏收入和可销售的产品，菲斯克还可能成为卖空者攻击的受害者。卖空者可能会发布卖空报告，引用未经证实的担忧，并为了个人利益而压低股价。这可能会损害公司的声誉，从而降低获得额外融资的能力、供应商的信誉、破坏现有的合作伙伴关系，并影响对其车辆的需求。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c3ae9e44bb7e2d5ebf034087945deef\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"355\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> The stock continues to offer immense upside potential at the current valuation based on its growth trajectory. Asset-light business model ensures that equity dilution would be insignificant as capital requirements are lower than other EV startups like Workhorse (WKHS) and Lordstown (RIDE) (that are at the risk of facing liquidity crisis when they enter mass production). Moreover, Fisker has zero balance sheet debt and strong liquidity position of $985Mn to support R&amp;D, CapEx, and Marketing costs. Fisker is still one of the best pure-play EV bets currently in the market despite the recent boom in stock price. We expect the stock to double in the next 2-3 years.<blockquote>根据其增长轨迹，该股在当前估值下继续提供巨大的上涨潜力。轻资产商业模式确保股权稀释微不足道，因为资本要求低于 Workhorse (WKHS) 和 Lordstown (RIDE) 等其他电动汽车初创公司（进入量产时面临面临流动性危机的风险）。此外，Fisker 的资产负债表债务为零，拥有 9.85 亿美元的强大流动性头寸，以支持研发、资本支出和营销成本。尽管最近股价上涨，但菲斯克仍然是目前市场上最好的纯电动汽车赌注之一。我们预计该股将在未来 2-3 年内翻一番。</blockquote> The stock would also see increased investments and recognition in the near term asit will be added to Russel 3000 index, which can lead to upside potential for stockholders.<blockquote>该股的投资和认可度也会增加，在短期内asit将被纳入罗素3000指数，这可能会给股东带来上涨潜力。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435102-fisker-stock-fsr-one-of-the-best-pure-play-ev-bets\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSR":"菲斯克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435102-fisker-stock-fsr-one-of-the-best-pure-play-ev-bets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184912441","content_text":"Summary\n\nFisker is on track to deliver its first vehicle by November 2022 and in line with the previously laid down cost structure.\nThe finalized Foxconn deal of mass-producing an electric vehicle justifies the current valuation.\nThe announcement of a climate-neutral vehicle goal by 2027 strengthens the long-term outlook.\nFisker has a robust balance sheet position to support significant investments in product development and innovation.\n\nChesky_W/iStock via Getty Images\nFisker (FSR) is up more than 65% since the publication of our previous article on Fisker last month (Fisker: High Risk, Very High Return) with a “very bullish” rating. Therefore, we believe now was the time to revisit the stock and revise our rating. After revisiting the stock, we continue to remain bullish as the mispricing persists and valuation fails to incorporate the long-term growth potential of the stock. However, valuation offers favorable risk-reward metrics to enter the stock but does not offer the same extraordinary returns with low risk as before, therefore, we would now reduce the rating from \"very bullish\" to \"bullish\".\nWe like Fisker's visionary leadership, competitive product, asset-light business model, and solid partnerships. This article focuses more on updates after our previous coverage, risk reward metrics at current valuation, and strengths that can help expand product portfolio. If you haven’t read our previous article, we highly recommend having a quick look to gain a better understanding of the overall business and strengths.\nBusiness Summary\nFisker Inc. is a California-based EV company focused on designing and developing electric vehicles. Its first vehicle, Fisker Ocean, an electric SUV, is expected to be ready for sale by November 2022. The manufacturing process of Fisker Ocean is outsourced to Magna (MGA) that has an annual capacity to produce 240,000 units. The company went public in October 2020 through a reverse merger with a SPAC. (Source)\nWhat changed since our previous coverage on Fisker?\nThe company signed an MOU with Foxconn (OTC:FXCOF) in February 2021, which later got converted into an agreementin May 2021. As per the agreement, Foxconn and Fisker will co-develop and manufacture an electric vehicle that would hit the market by Q4 2023 and will be sold under the Fisker brand name in North America, Europe, China, and India. The expected capacity of the vehicle would be 250,000 annually worldwide. The vehicle would be priced under $30,000 and would be a five-seater.\nIn the recent stockholders’ annual meeting, Fisker reassured that it was on course to deliver its Fisker Ocean in November 2022. It also reassured that it has sourced majority of parts for its first vehicle, and the cost structure is in line with expectations laid out by the company last year. The company announced its goal to produce a fully climate-neutral vehicle by 2027. It also announced plans to exhibit its Fisker Ocean vehicle at the LA Auto Show in November 2021.\nVision to make the world’s most sustainable vehicles\nThe company was founded with a vision to build the most sustainable vehicles in the world. So far, the company has been on track with its progress. Fisker Ocean has a solar roof that besides delivering a higher range to the vehicle, also generates a free of cost and greenest form of energy source. The company also uses recycled material within its car. In line with its vision, the company set a goal to produce a fully climate-neutral vehicle by 2027 with net-zero greenhouse gases over its lifetime.\nWell-positioned to expand vehicle portfolio\nTwo major partnerships with international contract manufacturers (Foxconn and Magna) uniquely positioned Fisker to grow its vehicle portfolio and reach its goal of four vehicles by 2025. The partnerships enable it to make vehicle design and development the center of attention for the company, have an asset-light business model, build confidence among top suppliers, and enhance negotiation capabilities with suppliers.\nIn collaboration with Fisker, Magna will also develop a new ADAS feature that includes digital-imaging radar technology. The technology would be coming with Fisker Ocean initially and can be levered to all the upcoming models of Fisker and will play a material role in differentiating Fisker from other automotive manufacturers. The company is also expected to have one of the fastest development times for a vehicle of 2.5 years which can be more than 4 years for most of the automotive OEMs.\nWe believe that the company is well-positioned to grow its portfolio by leveraging its existing technology, partnerships, and unique asset-light business model. It outsources multiple areas where it believes that differentiation is not important such as manufacturing process, fleet management services, lease financing, other related services, etc. This helps the company focus primarily on product innovation and development, unlike other companies with their hands entirely filled.\nMore upside potential\nAs we discussed in a previous report, the Foxconn deal alone can generate $3.75Bn+ annually in revenue (after 3 to 5 years). Similarly, based on conservative estimates of 50,000 Fisker Ocean vehicles at an average price of $50K, Fisker can generate $2.5Bn annually starting 2023 from Fisker Ocean. Both combined are still greater than the current market capitalization of $5.5Bn despite a 65%+ price return in the last one month.\nFurthermore, the company can deliver more than 20% growth in the medium-term (after 2025) even after the above two revenue sources are realized. This is because the company can continue to grow by adding more vehicles to its portfolio with the help of an asset-light business model, visionary leadership, and strong partnership.\nThe stock can justify its valuation based on estimates of barely two vehicles with a forward P/S ratio (FY3) of less than 1 as per our estimates discussed above. Announcement of the other two vehicles' development as per the company's defined 2025 goal would exponentially boost the company’s outlook and shareholder’s returns.\nRisk to Thesis\nRising short interest\nShort interest has gone up significantly in recent months. Increased pressure from short sellers can push the stock downwards. Besides that, Fisker can also become a victim of short-sellers' attacks due to its lack of revenue and salable product. Short-sellers might publish short-seller reports citing unproven concerns and push the stock downwards for personal gains. This can lead to tarnishing the firm's reputation, which can reduce the ability to secure additional financing, credibility among suppliers, disrupt existing partnerships, as well as impact demand for its vehicles.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nThe stock continues to offer immense upside potential at the current valuation based on its growth trajectory. Asset-light business model ensures that equity dilution would be insignificant as capital requirements are lower than other EV startups like Workhorse (WKHS) and Lordstown (RIDE) (that are at the risk of facing liquidity crisis when they enter mass production). Moreover, Fisker has zero balance sheet debt and strong liquidity position of $985Mn to support R&D, CapEx, and Marketing costs. Fisker is still one of the best pure-play EV bets currently in the market despite the recent boom in stock price. We expect the stock to double in the next 2-3 years.\nThe stock would also see increased investments and recognition in the near term asit will be added to Russel 3000 index, which can lead to upside potential for stockholders.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FSR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3417,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/161201447"}