Hahaha. Nice try._老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-06-17

Hahaha. Nice try.

AMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote>

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Nice try.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161055786","repostId":1157739738,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1157739738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623891796,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1157739738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 09:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157739738","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.When I look at AMC’s cha","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.</li> <li>Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.</li> <li>Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd621cec481d173c0f0d3b9be49ed335\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1241\">BCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>在成为第二波“模因”或动量股的领导者后，AMC 的举动类似于游戏驿站 1 月份的举动，表明存在明显下行的可能性。</li><li>技术指标、动量和搜索兴趣等重要短期指标开始形成类似于 1 月底 GME 的看跌模式。</li><li>鉴于7日和50日移动平均线之间的巨大差距，风险/回报似乎建议获利了结，启动对冲或空头/看跌头寸。</li></ul>BCFC/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Introduction<blockquote>介绍</blockquote> Over the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.<blockquote>在过去两周左右的时间里，AMC（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）的股价经历了历史性上涨。部分由于空头兴趣水平上升、期权的使用以及 AMC 采取的行动，股价上个月上涨了约 485%。今年，AMC 上涨了约 763.5%，达到每股约 55 美元，市值为 28.4B 美元，尽管这一年对公司及其长期业务前景具有根本性的破坏性。今年早些时候，在游戏驿站（NYSE:GME）和其他 “reddit ”推动的股票的空头和伽马挤压下，AMC 再次获得动力，并凭借其业绩在集团中脱颖而出。本文将比较 GME 在二月份惨败中的领导地位与 AMC 目前的领导地位，并评估推动这一举措的催化剂及其寿命。鉴于股票价格走势的性质，重要的是要不断重新考虑您的投资论点，重新评估推动价格走势的因素。在我看来，技术分析在这些情况下占据主导地位，我将指出许多因素，表明这可能是获利了结或在预期抛售的情况下建仓的时候。</blockquote> Technical Analysis<blockquote>技术分析</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d813be28f7a34550ff50814b55a68e45\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: CNBC(GameStop)<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC（游戏驿站）</blockquote> Consider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.<blockquote>今年早些时候，GME 在动量股或 “迷因 ”股中处于领先地位。图表上顶部的红色带表示7天移动平均线，而蓝色表示50天移动平均线，绿色表示200天移动平均线。从图表中可以看出，突破 7 日移动平均线后，两个方向都会出现大幅波动。看来，在这些剧烈波动的情况下，7 天移动平均线是价格走势最有用的指标。从图表中可以看出，在 2 月、3 月和 6 月，当 GME 的价格突破 7 天移动平均线时，随之而来的是明显的下跌。</blockquote> Interestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.<blockquote>有趣的是，50日移动平均线（蓝线）似乎在这一上升趋势中提供了某种程度的一致支撑，为沿着走势的几次反弹提供了一个支撑。随着这种上升趋势的持续，50天和7天之间的差距已经缩小，从而在阻力位和支撑位方面提供了更小的波动性和更大的可预测性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a18cedd2df4fa0530b6c94859b3021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: CNBC [AMC]<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC [AMC]</blockquote> When I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.<blockquote>当我看到 AMC 的图表时，它让我想起了 2021 年 2 月的 GME。与 GME 在 2 月份的上涨（约 21 天内上涨约 1,525%）类似，上涨速度迅速而明显（约 23 天内上涨约 350%）。两者都导致短期内 7 天和 50 天移动平均线之间存在较大差异，因此在上行和下行方面都提供了较高的波动潜力。从 GME 的图表上可以看出，它在前一周触及约 350 美元后，最终测试了约 45-50 美元左右的 50 天移动平均线。</blockquote> Similarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.This scenario offers ~60% downside.Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.<blockquote>与 GME 类似，AMC 在此次上涨后也在 7 日平均线附近盘整，并使其能够赶上价格走势。如果 AMC 无法突破 62.55 美元并呈现出新的势头，它将面临双重顶部的风险，在下行时突破 7 日均线，并在 20 美元左右重新测试 50 日均线。这种情况提供了大约60%的缺点。虽然我通常不会看时间段来评估未来潜在的价格走势，但我认为重要的是要注意两次走势在时间段上的相似性，并对 GME 走势后端的情况保持警惕。</blockquote> Google Search Interest: The Momentum Story<blockquote>谷歌搜索兴趣：势头故事</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dda9563f56dc1df868212408e969418\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\">Source: Google Search Trends (GameStop)<blockquote>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势（游戏驿站）</blockquote> As these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.<blockquote>由于这些举措在很大程度上是基于势头的，谷歌搜索兴趣可能值得考虑。从图表中可以看出，GME 的搜索兴趣在 1 月底和 2 月初快速上升和下降，与其股票表现非常一致。它的兴趣峰值几乎与价格峰值完全吻合，兴趣下降与价格下降完全吻合。同样，在测试约 45 美元左右的 50 天移动平均线后，其兴趣也随之反弹，价格也随之反弹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fba476b389598252d5156f43d0962f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\">Source: Google Search Trends [AMC]<blockquote>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势 [AMC]</blockquote> When you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.<blockquote>当你观察 AMC 对谷歌搜索的兴趣时，你还可以看到它在短时间内急剧飙升，然后急剧下降。由于搜索兴趣和交易量是 GME 二月份下跌的领先指标，如果无法反弹，这张图表可能表明潜在的抛售。</blockquote> Cross-Analysis<blockquote>交叉分析</blockquote> When you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.<blockquote>当您将股票价格、搜索兴趣和交易量相互排列时，它们之间的关系都会变得更加清晰，尽管在衡量像交易量到兴趣这样的大数字时存在缺陷。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71c144385e0530f21df9f305b4eef2f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\">Source: ValueMan<blockquote>资料来源：ValueMan</blockquote> When considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.<blockquote>当考虑GME时，图表表明变量之间存在相关性，尤其是在剧烈而不稳定的上下波动中。虽然他们可能会在相对平静的波动时期迷失方向，但当事情在波动的本质中发展时，他们会保留一种关系。搜索兴趣和交易量似乎在股价上涨后直接领先或下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c1aab35454d89a6f58f78341bf918b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"375\">Source: ValueMan<blockquote>资料来源：ValueMan</blockquote> AMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.<blockquote>AMC 的图表实际上更清楚地展示了这些变量之间的关系和相关性。想想在 GME 的下跌过程中，搜索兴趣和交易量实际上是如何先于价格的，以及 AMC 的搜索兴趣最近是如何以类似的方式突破其价格的。</blockquote> While this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.<blockquote>虽然这种分析方法并不完美，但重要的是要记住你的头寸的催化剂是什么，并不断分析它们在市场上的影响持续时间和寿命。与所有短期波动一样，基本面很少提供太多的指示或近期价格走势。通常，技术面、成交量和动量提供了对未来价格走势最准确的预测，因此也是最有用的分析。</blockquote> Many have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.<blockquote>许多人都为推动这一举措的原因提供了催化剂，包括重新开放的叙事、伽马或空头挤压，或者股票发行带来的新资本流入。底线是所有这些催化剂的有效寿命都依赖于动量。即使它们是会随着时间的推移而发生的催化剂，像这样的大幅价格上涨也会缩短催化剂每日动量的寿命，直到它们重新测试长期平均水平并通过增加交易量建立稳定性。</blockquote> I think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.<blockquote>我认为谨慎的做法是在这里获利了结，或者至少暂时获利超过 50%，对于那些感兴趣的人来说，预计会出现明显下跌的头寸似乎是明智的。</blockquote> Risks<blockquote>风险</blockquote> The risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.<blockquote>AMC 看跌论点的风险包括新的势头和持续高于 7 日移动平均线。正如我前面所阐述的，这似乎是这些情况下短期价格变动的最关键指标，并且一直是上行和下行剧烈波动的指标。如果 AMC 保持在该平均线上方，并缩小 7 天与 20 天和 50 天移动平均线之间的差距，它可能会保持这一较高的成交量和价格水平，并在创出新高之前进行盘整。我从根本上相信，虽然这里有催化剂在起作用，但当在如此短的时间内出现如此戏剧性的走势时，动能和技术因素将接管决定未来的价格走势。因此，如果技术面崩溃，应该会有明显的负面影响。然而，如果技术面继续看涨，未来可能会有更多上涨空间。不过，AMC 看起来与 GME 二月份的走势相似，看跌的双顶形态似乎正在形成。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> After writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.<blockquote>在 1 月份撰写了一篇关于 AMC 的看涨文章后，我们现在看跌该股票，因为我们认识到关键动量指标的恶化以及与 2 月份 GME 涨跌的技术相似性。在这种情况下，催化剂会变得不稳定，因此评估投资论文中要点的寿命非常重要。当事情急剧上涨时，通常会有一段获利了结期，市场会重新定价催化剂的价值。如果只是动量作为催化剂，那么重新定价往往是明显且不稳定的。如果是更长期的催化剂，获利了结可以更平缓。虽然推动 AMC 崛起的催化剂可能有很多，但毫无疑问，有一个催化剂比所有催化剂都更胜一筹，那就是动力故事。根据我们对 GME 的检查，考虑到 20 天和 50 天移动平均线之间的差距，7 天移动平均线似乎是大幅下跌之前值得关注的价格水平。作为谷歌搜索趋势，数量和价格（双顶模式）似乎表明事情正在崩溃，至少与2月份的GME相似。一个人应该考虑在这里获利了结，如果倾向于采取另一方，考虑现在相应地开始头寸。虽然期权费很高，但我认为仍然有能力用一些短期期权（2周-4周）启动小头寸或对冲。如果价格走势下行，这一走势将是剧烈的，因为下一个支撑位比当前价格低40美元。虽然我认为做空在这里是有意义的，而且由于做空股票的比例不是 GME 的水平，借贷成本似乎也没有那么高，但那里的风险本来就更大。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-17 09:03\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.</li> <li>Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.</li> <li>Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd621cec481d173c0f0d3b9be49ed335\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1241\">BCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>在成为第二波“模因”或动量股的领导者后，AMC 的举动类似于游戏驿站 1 月份的举动，表明存在明显下行的可能性。</li><li>技术指标、动量和搜索兴趣等重要短期指标开始形成类似于 1 月底 GME 的看跌模式。</li><li>鉴于7日和50日移动平均线之间的巨大差距，风险/回报似乎建议获利了结，启动对冲或空头/看跌头寸。</li></ul>BCFC/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Introduction<blockquote>介绍</blockquote> Over the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.<blockquote>在过去两周左右的时间里，AMC（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）的股价经历了历史性上涨。部分由于空头兴趣水平上升、期权的使用以及 AMC 采取的行动，股价上个月上涨了约 485%。今年，AMC 上涨了约 763.5%，达到每股约 55 美元，市值为 28.4B 美元，尽管这一年对公司及其长期业务前景具有根本性的破坏性。今年早些时候，在游戏驿站（NYSE:GME）和其他 “reddit ”推动的股票的空头和伽马挤压下，AMC 再次获得动力，并凭借其业绩在集团中脱颖而出。本文将比较 GME 在二月份惨败中的领导地位与 AMC 目前的领导地位，并评估推动这一举措的催化剂及其寿命。鉴于股票价格走势的性质，重要的是要不断重新考虑您的投资论点，重新评估推动价格走势的因素。在我看来，技术分析在这些情况下占据主导地位，我将指出许多因素，表明这可能是获利了结或在预期抛售的情况下建仓的时候。</blockquote> Technical Analysis<blockquote>技术分析</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d813be28f7a34550ff50814b55a68e45\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"308\">Source: CNBC(GameStop)<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC（游戏驿站）</blockquote> Consider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.<blockquote>今年早些时候，GME 在动量股或 “迷因 ”股中处于领先地位。图表上顶部的红色带表示7天移动平均线，而蓝色表示50天移动平均线，绿色表示200天移动平均线。从图表中可以看出，突破 7 日移动平均线后，两个方向都会出现大幅波动。看来，在这些剧烈波动的情况下，7 天移动平均线是价格走势最有用的指标。从图表中可以看出，在 2 月、3 月和 6 月，当 GME 的价格突破 7 天移动平均线时，随之而来的是明显的下跌。</blockquote> Interestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.<blockquote>有趣的是，50日移动平均线（蓝线）似乎在这一上升趋势中提供了某种程度的一致支撑，为沿着走势的几次反弹提供了一个支撑。随着这种上升趋势的持续，50天和7天之间的差距已经缩小，从而在阻力位和支撑位方面提供了更小的波动性和更大的可预测性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a18cedd2df4fa0530b6c94859b3021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"252\">Source: CNBC [AMC]<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC [AMC]</blockquote> When I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.<blockquote>当我看到 AMC 的图表时，它让我想起了 2021 年 2 月的 GME。与 GME 在 2 月份的上涨（约 21 天内上涨约 1,525%）类似，上涨速度迅速而明显（约 23 天内上涨约 350%）。两者都导致短期内 7 天和 50 天移动平均线之间存在较大差异，因此在上行和下行方面都提供了较高的波动潜力。从 GME 的图表上可以看出，它在前一周触及约 350 美元后，最终测试了约 45-50 美元左右的 50 天移动平均线。</blockquote> Similarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.This scenario offers ~60% downside.Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.<blockquote>与 GME 类似，AMC 在此次上涨后也在 7 日平均线附近盘整，并使其能够赶上价格走势。如果 AMC 无法突破 62.55 美元并呈现出新的势头，它将面临双重顶部的风险，在下行时突破 7 日均线，并在 20 美元左右重新测试 50 日均线。这种情况提供了大约60%的缺点。虽然我通常不会看时间段来评估未来潜在的价格走势，但我认为重要的是要注意两次走势在时间段上的相似性，并对 GME 走势后端的情况保持警惕。</blockquote> Google Search Interest: The Momentum Story<blockquote>谷歌搜索兴趣：势头故事</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dda9563f56dc1df868212408e969418\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\">Source: Google Search Trends (GameStop)<blockquote>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势（游戏驿站）</blockquote> As these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.<blockquote>由于这些举措在很大程度上是基于势头的，谷歌搜索兴趣可能值得考虑。从图表中可以看出，GME 的搜索兴趣在 1 月底和 2 月初快速上升和下降，与其股票表现非常一致。它的兴趣峰值几乎与价格峰值完全吻合，兴趣下降与价格下降完全吻合。同样，在测试约 45 美元左右的 50 天移动平均线后，其兴趣也随之反弹，价格也随之反弹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fba476b389598252d5156f43d0962f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\">Source: Google Search Trends [AMC]<blockquote>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势 [AMC]</blockquote> When you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.<blockquote>当你观察 AMC 对谷歌搜索的兴趣时，你还可以看到它在短时间内急剧飙升，然后急剧下降。由于搜索兴趣和交易量是 GME 二月份下跌的领先指标，如果无法反弹，这张图表可能表明潜在的抛售。</blockquote> Cross-Analysis<blockquote>交叉分析</blockquote> When you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.<blockquote>当您将股票价格、搜索兴趣和交易量相互排列时，它们之间的关系都会变得更加清晰，尽管在衡量像交易量到兴趣这样的大数字时存在缺陷。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71c144385e0530f21df9f305b4eef2f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\">Source: ValueMan<blockquote>资料来源：ValueMan</blockquote> When considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.<blockquote>当考虑GME时，图表表明变量之间存在相关性，尤其是在剧烈而不稳定的上下波动中。虽然他们可能会在相对平静的波动时期迷失方向，但当事情在波动的本质中发展时，他们会保留一种关系。搜索兴趣和交易量似乎在股价上涨后直接领先或下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c1aab35454d89a6f58f78341bf918b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"375\">Source: ValueMan<blockquote>资料来源：ValueMan</blockquote> AMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.<blockquote>AMC 的图表实际上更清楚地展示了这些变量之间的关系和相关性。想想在 GME 的下跌过程中，搜索兴趣和交易量实际上是如何先于价格的，以及 AMC 的搜索兴趣最近是如何以类似的方式突破其价格的。</blockquote> While this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.<blockquote>虽然这种分析方法并不完美，但重要的是要记住你的头寸的催化剂是什么，并不断分析它们在市场上的影响持续时间和寿命。与所有短期波动一样，基本面很少提供太多的指示或近期价格走势。通常，技术面、成交量和动量提供了对未来价格走势最准确的预测，因此也是最有用的分析。</blockquote> Many have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.<blockquote>许多人都为推动这一举措的原因提供了催化剂，包括重新开放的叙事、伽马或空头挤压，或者股票发行带来的新资本流入。底线是所有这些催化剂的有效寿命都依赖于动量。即使它们是会随着时间的推移而发生的催化剂，像这样的大幅价格上涨也会缩短催化剂每日动量的寿命，直到它们重新测试长期平均水平并通过增加交易量建立稳定性。</blockquote> I think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.<blockquote>我认为谨慎的做法是在这里获利了结，或者至少暂时获利超过 50%，对于那些感兴趣的人来说，预计会出现明显下跌的头寸似乎是明智的。</blockquote> Risks<blockquote>风险</blockquote> The risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.<blockquote>AMC 看跌论点的风险包括新的势头和持续高于 7 日移动平均线。正如我前面所阐述的，这似乎是这些情况下短期价格变动的最关键指标，并且一直是上行和下行剧烈波动的指标。如果 AMC 保持在该平均线上方，并缩小 7 天与 20 天和 50 天移动平均线之间的差距，它可能会保持这一较高的成交量和价格水平，并在创出新高之前进行盘整。我从根本上相信，虽然这里有催化剂在起作用，但当在如此短的时间内出现如此戏剧性的走势时，动能和技术因素将接管决定未来的价格走势。因此，如果技术面崩溃，应该会有明显的负面影响。然而，如果技术面继续看涨，未来可能会有更多上涨空间。不过，AMC 看起来与 GME 二月份的走势相似，看跌的双顶形态似乎正在形成。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> After writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.<blockquote>在 1 月份撰写了一篇关于 AMC 的看涨文章后，我们现在看跌该股票，因为我们认识到关键动量指标的恶化以及与 2 月份 GME 涨跌的技术相似性。在这种情况下，催化剂会变得不稳定，因此评估投资论文中要点的寿命非常重要。当事情急剧上涨时，通常会有一段获利了结期，市场会重新定价催化剂的价值。如果只是动量作为催化剂，那么重新定价往往是明显且不稳定的。如果是更长期的催化剂，获利了结可以更平缓。虽然推动 AMC 崛起的催化剂可能有很多，但毫无疑问，有一个催化剂比所有催化剂都更胜一筹，那就是动力故事。根据我们对 GME 的检查，考虑到 20 天和 50 天移动平均线之间的差距，7 天移动平均线似乎是大幅下跌之前值得关注的价格水平。作为谷歌搜索趋势，数量和价格（双顶模式）似乎表明事情正在崩溃，至少与2月份的GME相似。一个人应该考虑在这里获利了结，如果倾向于采取另一方，考虑现在相应地开始头寸。虽然期权费很高，但我认为仍然有能力用一些短期期权（2周-4周）启动小头寸或对冲。如果价格走势下行，这一走势将是剧烈的，因为下一个支撑位比当前价格低40美元。虽然我认为做空在这里是有意义的，而且由于做空股票的比例不是 GME 的水平，借贷成本似乎也没有那么高，但那里的风险本来就更大。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435124-amc-stock-take-profits\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435124-amc-stock-take-profits","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157739738","content_text":"Summary\n\nAfter emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.\nImportant short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.\nGiven the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.\n\nBCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nOver the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.\nTechnical Analysis\nSource: CNBC(GameStop)\nConsider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.\nInterestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.\nSource: CNBC [AMC]\nWhen I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.\nSimilarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.This scenario offers ~60% downside.Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.\nGoogle Search Interest: The Momentum Story\nSource: Google Search Trends (GameStop)\nAs these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.\nSource: Google Search Trends [AMC]\nWhen you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.\nCross-Analysis\nWhen you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.\nSource: ValueMan\nWhen considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.\nSource: ValueMan\nAMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.\nWhile this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.\nMany have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.\nI think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.\nRisks\nThe risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.\nConclusion\nAfter writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/161055786"}