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2021-07-01

Dont understand

Warren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股市指标并不是唯一一个暗示股市需要喘息的指标</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":158343538,"tweetId":"158343538","gmtCreate":1625131896524,"gmtModify":1631892694217,"author":{"id":3585719144864945,"idStr":"3585719144864945","authorId":3585719144864945,"authorIdStr":"3585719144864945","name":"mrqwerty8808","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Dont understand</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Dont understand</body></html>","text":"Dont understand","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158343538","repostId":1147390885,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147390885","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625119868,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1147390885?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 14:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股市指标并不是唯一一个暗示股市需要喘息的指标</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147390885","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"The stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities ","content":"The stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities valuation.<blockquote>根据一项经常被忽视的股票估值指标，股市正在进入危险区。</blockquote> At its current level of 38 times, the Shiller P/E Ratio is nearing the peak (44 times) seen at the height just before the dot-com bust in 2000, write strategists atSunDial Capital Research. Created by noted Yale professor Robert Shiller, the ratio is seen as better than the traditional P/E ratio as it adjusts for inflation.<blockquote>策略师 atSunDial Capital Research 写道，席勒市盈率目前为 38 倍，已接近 2000 年互联网泡沫破裂前的峰值（44 倍）。该比率由著名耶鲁大学教授罗伯特·席勒 (Robert Shiller) 创建，被认为优于传统的市盈率，因为它根据通货膨胀进行了调整。</blockquote> Historically, a Shiller PE ratio sustained over 25 times has gone on to be a precursor for sizable pullbacks in the market as presented in the below chart by Sundial Capital Research.<blockquote>从历史上看，席勒市盈率维持在25倍以上一直是市场大幅回调的先兆，如下图所示，Sundial Capital Research。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6fa873e7da808f6a362a964ddfa0c7\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Markets look long overdue for a corrections, hints the Shiller P/E Ratio.<blockquote>席勒市盈率暗示，市场早就应该进行调整了。</blockquote> The team at Sundial is quick to point out that no stock market measure is fool proof or all predictive.<blockquote>Sundial 团队很快指出，没有任何股市指标是万无一失的，也没有任何股市指标是完全可以预测的。</blockquote> \"That the stock market is 'overvalued' DOES NOT mean investors need to take drastic action immediately. Because the reality is that the stock market can (and, in fact, has been) overvalued for many years,\" explains Sundial.<blockquote>“股市‘高估’并不意味着投资者需要立即采取激烈行动。因为现实情况是，股市可能（事实上，多年来一直）被高估，”Sundial 解释道。</blockquote> The group added, \"The current high reading for the Shiller P/E is NOT a 'call to action.' It is more of a 'call to pay close attention.' There are always 'things' to be concerned about that may upset the apple cart.\"<blockquote>该组织补充道：“目前席勒市盈率的高读数并不是‘采取行动的看涨期权’。它更像是‘需要密切关注的看涨期权’。总有一些‘事情’需要担心，可能会扰乱苹果的购物车。”</blockquote> In other words, don't sell all your stocks and hide the cash under your bed.<blockquote>换句话说，不要卖掉所有股票，把现金藏在床底下。</blockquote> That said if you aren't inclined to be a big believer in the Shiller P/E Ratio (count my colleagueMyles Udlandin that camp,watch videoabove), perhaps a closely watched measure by theWarren \"Oracle of Omaha\" Buffettis more in lockstep with your analytical views.<blockquote>也就是说，如果你不倾向于成为席勒市盈率的忠实信徒（算上我在该阵营的同事迈尔斯·乌德兰，观看上面的视频），也许这是沃伦“奥马哈先知”巴菲特密切关注的一个指标更符合你的分析观点。</blockquote> The “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is still seemingly hitting new record highs daily. In crunching the numbers, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 204.4% — up sharply from the 187.5% level (also a record) from when we last wrote about the measure in late February. All data comes to us fromGuruFocus, which extensively tracks the indicator.<blockquote>华尔街圈子里称之为 “巴菲特指标”--用威尔希尔 5000 指数（被视为整个股市）除以美国年度 GDP--似乎每天都在创下新高。在处理这些数字时，巴菲特指标约为 204.4%，较我们 2 月底上次撰写有关该指标的文章时的 187.5% 水平（也是创纪录的）大幅上升。所有数据均来自 GuruFocus，该公司广泛跟踪该指标。</blockquote> The existing figure remains well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.<blockquote>目前的数字仍然远高于互联网泡沫前的159.2%。</blockquote> “The stock market is significantly overvalued according to the Buffett Indicator,” said the researchers at GuruFocus. “Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (the aforementioned 204.4%), it is likely to return -3.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.”<blockquote>“GuruFocus 的研究人员说：”根据巴菲特指标，股市被严重高估。“根据总市值与 GDP 的历史比率（前面提到的 204.4%），从这个估值水平来看，包括股息在内，每年的回报率可能为 -3.3%。”</blockquote> The Buffett Indicator rose to fame after a2001 Fortune Magazine articlewritten by Buffett and long-time Fortune writer and Buffett insider Carol Loomis.<blockquote>巴菲特指标在巴菲特和《财富》长期作家、巴菲特内部人士卡罗尔·卢米斯 (Carol Loomis) 于 2001 年在《财富》杂志上撰写的一篇文章后声名鹊起。</blockquote> “The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” explained Buffett in the article.<blockquote>“巴菲特在文章中解释说：”该比率在告诉你需要知道什么方面存在一定的局限性。尽管如此，它可能是衡量任何特定时刻估值状况的最佳单一指标。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股市指标并不是唯一一个暗示股市需要喘息的指标</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股市指标并不是唯一一个暗示股市需要喘息的指标</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nfinance.yahoo2021-07-01 14:11\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities valuation.<blockquote>根据一项经常被忽视的股票估值指标，股市正在进入危险区。</blockquote> At its current level of 38 times, the Shiller P/E Ratio is nearing the peak (44 times) seen at the height just before the dot-com bust in 2000, write strategists atSunDial Capital Research. Created by noted Yale professor Robert Shiller, the ratio is seen as better than the traditional P/E ratio as it adjusts for inflation.<blockquote>策略师 atSunDial Capital Research 写道，席勒市盈率目前为 38 倍，已接近 2000 年互联网泡沫破裂前的峰值（44 倍）。该比率由著名耶鲁大学教授罗伯特·席勒 (Robert Shiller) 创建，被认为优于传统的市盈率，因为它根据通货膨胀进行了调整。</blockquote> Historically, a Shiller PE ratio sustained over 25 times has gone on to be a precursor for sizable pullbacks in the market as presented in the below chart by Sundial Capital Research.<blockquote>从历史上看，席勒市盈率维持在25倍以上一直是市场大幅回调的先兆，如下图所示，Sundial Capital Research。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6fa873e7da808f6a362a964ddfa0c7\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Markets look long overdue for a corrections, hints the Shiller P/E Ratio.<blockquote>席勒市盈率暗示，市场早就应该进行调整了。</blockquote> The team at Sundial is quick to point out that no stock market measure is fool proof or all predictive.<blockquote>Sundial 团队很快指出，没有任何股市指标是万无一失的，也没有任何股市指标是完全可以预测的。</blockquote> \"That the stock market is 'overvalued' DOES NOT mean investors need to take drastic action immediately. Because the reality is that the stock market can (and, in fact, has been) overvalued for many years,\" explains Sundial.<blockquote>“股市‘高估’并不意味着投资者需要立即采取激烈行动。因为现实情况是，股市可能（事实上，多年来一直）被高估，”Sundial 解释道。</blockquote> The group added, \"The current high reading for the Shiller P/E is NOT a 'call to action.' It is more of a 'call to pay close attention.' There are always 'things' to be concerned about that may upset the apple cart.\"<blockquote>该组织补充道：“目前席勒市盈率的高读数并不是‘采取行动的看涨期权’。它更像是‘需要密切关注的看涨期权’。总有一些‘事情’需要担心，可能会扰乱苹果的购物车。”</blockquote> In other words, don't sell all your stocks and hide the cash under your bed.<blockquote>换句话说，不要卖掉所有股票，把现金藏在床底下。</blockquote> That said if you aren't inclined to be a big believer in the Shiller P/E Ratio (count my colleagueMyles Udlandin that camp,watch videoabove), perhaps a closely watched measure by theWarren \"Oracle of Omaha\" Buffettis more in lockstep with your analytical views.<blockquote>也就是说，如果你不倾向于成为席勒市盈率的忠实信徒（算上我在该阵营的同事迈尔斯·乌德兰，观看上面的视频），也许这是沃伦“奥马哈先知”巴菲特密切关注的一个指标更符合你的分析观点。</blockquote> The “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is still seemingly hitting new record highs daily. In crunching the numbers, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 204.4% — up sharply from the 187.5% level (also a record) from when we last wrote about the measure in late February. All data comes to us fromGuruFocus, which extensively tracks the indicator.<blockquote>华尔街圈子里称之为 “巴菲特指标”--用威尔希尔 5000 指数（被视为整个股市）除以美国年度 GDP--似乎每天都在创下新高。在处理这些数字时，巴菲特指标约为 204.4%，较我们 2 月底上次撰写有关该指标的文章时的 187.5% 水平（也是创纪录的）大幅上升。所有数据均来自 GuruFocus，该公司广泛跟踪该指标。</blockquote> The existing figure remains well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.<blockquote>目前的数字仍然远高于互联网泡沫前的159.2%。</blockquote> “The stock market is significantly overvalued according to the Buffett Indicator,” said the researchers at GuruFocus. “Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (the aforementioned 204.4%), it is likely to return -3.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.”<blockquote>“GuruFocus 的研究人员说：”根据巴菲特指标，股市被严重高估。“根据总市值与 GDP 的历史比率（前面提到的 204.4%），从这个估值水平来看，包括股息在内，每年的回报率可能为 -3.3%。”</blockquote> The Buffett Indicator rose to fame after a2001 Fortune Magazine articlewritten by Buffett and long-time Fortune writer and Buffett insider Carol Loomis.<blockquote>巴菲特指标在巴菲特和《财富》长期作家、巴菲特内部人士卡罗尔·卢米斯 (Carol Loomis) 于 2001 年在《财富》杂志上撰写的一篇文章后声名鹊起。</blockquote> “The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” explained Buffett in the article.<blockquote>“巴菲特在文章中解释说：”该比率在告诉你需要知道什么方面存在一定的局限性。尽管如此，它可能是衡量任何特定时刻估值状况的最佳单一指标。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-favorite-stock-market-indicator-isnt-alone-in-hinting-stocks-are-due-for-a-breather-192030974.html\">finance.yahoo</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","BRK.A":"伯克希尔",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-favorite-stock-market-indicator-isnt-alone-in-hinting-stocks-are-due-for-a-breather-192030974.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147390885","content_text":"The stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities valuation.\nAt its current level of 38 times, the Shiller P/E Ratio is nearing the peak (44 times) seen at the height just before the dot-com bust in 2000, write strategists atSunDial Capital Research. Created by noted Yale professor Robert Shiller, the ratio is seen as better than the traditional P/E ratio as it adjusts for inflation.\nHistorically, a Shiller PE ratio sustained over 25 times has gone on to be a precursor for sizable pullbacks in the market as presented in the below chart by Sundial Capital Research.\nMarkets look long overdue for a corrections, hints the Shiller P/E Ratio.\nThe team at Sundial is quick to point out that no stock market measure is fool proof or all predictive.\n\"That the stock market is 'overvalued' DOES NOT mean investors need to take drastic action immediately. Because the reality is that the stock market can (and, in fact, has been) overvalued for many years,\" explains Sundial.\nThe group added, \"The current high reading for the Shiller P/E is NOT a 'call to action.' It is more of a 'call to pay close attention.' There are always 'things' to be concerned about that may upset the apple cart.\"\nIn other words, don't sell all your stocks and hide the cash under your bed.\nThat said if you aren't inclined to be a big believer in the Shiller P/E Ratio (count my colleagueMyles Udlandin that camp,watch videoabove), perhaps a closely watched measure by theWarren \"Oracle of Omaha\" Buffettis more in lockstep with your analytical views.\nThe “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is still seemingly hitting new record highs daily. In crunching the numbers, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 204.4% — up sharply from the 187.5% level (also a record) from when we last wrote about the measure in late February. All data comes to us fromGuruFocus, which extensively tracks the indicator.\nThe existing figure remains well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.\n“The stock market is significantly overvalued according to the Buffett Indicator,” said the researchers at GuruFocus. “Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (the aforementioned 204.4%), it is likely to return -3.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.”\nThe Buffett Indicator rose to fame after a2001 Fortune Magazine articlewritten by Buffett and long-time Fortune writer and Buffett insider Carol Loomis.\n“The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” explained Buffett in the article.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2020,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/158343538"}