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2021-07-01
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Will Exxon Mobil Stock Split Again? What To Know<blockquote>埃克森美孚会再次进行股票分割吗？要知道什么</blockquote>
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What To Know<blockquote>埃克森美孚会再次进行股票分割吗？要知道什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120348430","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSome investors do care a lot about stock splits, as those can fuel share price upside, as w","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Some investors do care a lot about stock splits, as those can fuel share price upside, as we saw last year when TSLA and AAPL split their stocks.</li> <li>XOM has regularly split its shares in the 20th century, but due to low share price growth, there have not been any splits in the recent past.</li> <li>We believe that another stock split in the foreseeable future is unlikely, but that doesn't mean that XOM must be a bad investment.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e640740db47b777095d060781cfc785c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Yuichiro Chino/Moment via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>一些投资者确实非常关心股票分割，因为这可以推动股价上涨，正如我们去年特斯拉和苹果公司分割股票时看到的那样。</li><li>XOM在20世纪定期进行股票分割，但由于股价增长较低，近期没有进行任何分割。</li><li>我们认为，在可预见的未来不太可能再次进行股票分割，但这并不意味着XOM一定是一项糟糕的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Yuichiro Chino/Moment来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) has put a lot of effort into reducing its share count in the past, which allowed the company to split its stock from time to time. In recent years, however, free cash flows were not especially strong, and the dividend payments soaked up most of those cash flows, which is why the share count has not declined meaningfully. On top of that, Exxon Mobil's shares have moved sideways for a long period of time, which made a stock split feel unnecessary.</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚公司（XOM）过去在减少股票数量方面付出了很多努力，这使得该公司能够不时地分割股票。然而，近年来，自由现金流并不是特别强劲，股息支付吸收了大部分现金流，这就是股票数量没有大幅下降的原因。最重要的是，埃克森美孚的股价长期横盘整理，这让人觉得没有必要进行股票分割。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, Exxon Mobil seems to be well-positioned to generate growing cash flows, but buybacks will likely still not be too hefty, as Exxon Mobil also has to improve its balance sheet. I thus don't expect another stock split in the near term, although that doesn't mean that Exxon Mobil must be a bad investment at all.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，埃克森美孚似乎处于有利地位，可以产生不断增长的现金流，但回购可能仍不会太大，因为埃克森美孚还必须改善其资产负债表。因此，我预计短期内不会再次进行股票分割，尽管这并不意味着埃克森美孚一定是一项糟糕的投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>XOM Stock Split History</b></p><p><blockquote><b>XOM股票分割历史</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking at Exxon Mobil's share price chart, we see that XOM has moved upwards relatively consistently for decades, up to around 2007. Due to these upward moves, splitting the stock regularly made sense, in order to prevent shares from getting too expensive. For the last 13 years or so, however, XOM has not continued to move up:</p><p><blockquote>看看埃克森美孚的股价图表，我们发现XOM几十年来一直相对持续地上涨，直到2007年左右。由于这些上涨，定期分割股票是有意义的，以防止股票变得太贵。然而，在过去13年左右的时间里，XOM并没有继续上升：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b3a69e9a81396a857ff39f218ec638\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Instead, its share price today is well below the $90s that XOM hit more than a decade ago. This can be explained by factors such as lower oil prices, compared to the highs that were hit in 2008, but some capital allocation mistakes, such as the overpriced takeover of XTO Energy, played a role as well. Due to the unconvincing share price performance in more than a decade, there was no need to split the stock further, which is why the last stock split occurred in 2001:</p><p><blockquote>相反，其目前的股价远低于XOM十多年前触及的90美元。与2008年触及的高点相比，油价较低等因素可以解释这一点，但一些资本配置错误，例如高价收购XTO Energy，也发挥了作用。由于十多年来股价表现不令人信服，因此没有必要进一步拆股，这也是上一次拆股发生在2001年的原因：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d72f854559be94be7b23b64ee7591e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>Source:exxonmobil.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：exxonmobil.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We see that Exxon Mobil split its stock 7 times between 1951 and 2001, so about once every seven years. If XOM would have kept that pace, about 2-3 stock splits would have occurred between 2001 and today, but there were none - a result of the weak share price performance in that time frame. In fact, shares of Exxon Mobil Corporation only rose by 42% since June 2001, when the last stock split occurred, and today. A 42% stock price increase in 20 years equates to annual returns of 1.8%, which is less than the rate of inflation - and there is no need to split the stock when it only climbs at that rate.</p><p><blockquote>我们看到埃克森美孚在1951年至2001年间将其股票分割了7次，大约每7年一次。如果XOM保持这一速度，从2001年到今天，大约会发生2-3次股票分割，但没有发生——这是该时间段内股价表现疲软的结果。事实上，埃克森美孚公司的股价自2001年6月（上次股票分割发生时）到今天仅上涨了42%。20年内股价上涨42%相当于年回报率1.8%，低于通货膨胀率——而且当股票仅以这个速度攀升时，没有必要分割股票。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the number of outstanding shares, we see that Exxon Mobil has been an avid repurchaser of shares for prolonged periods in the past, e.g. between 1980 and 2000:</p><p><blockquote>从流通股数量来看，我们发现埃克森美孚在过去很长一段时间内都是股票回购的狂热者，例如1980年至2000年间：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/734fd1f142bcebfaba862b90421b85fe\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>Note: This chart uses today's split-adjusted shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>注：此图表使用今天的分割调整后股票</i></blockquote></p><p> During that time frame, the company split its shares several times, which made sense, as this allowed for increased liquidity and a large float during times when the share count kept declining.</p><p><blockquote>在此期间，该公司多次分割股票，这是有道理的，因为这可以在股票数量持续下降的情况下增加流动性和大量流通量。</blockquote></p><p> The merger with Mobil made XOM's share count climb to around 7 billion shares in 1999 (adjusted for the split in 2001), but even though the share count has declined by a lot since 1999 and 2015, there wasn't a need to split shares another time, as XOM's share price had not moved up by a lot. Following the oil price crash in 2014-2015, Exxon Mobil has not lowered its share count meaningfully, and its shares have declined in that period, which made a stock split even less necessary - after all, why would the company split its stock, if it wasn't climbing anyways and if the share count was pretty constant?</p><p><blockquote>与美孚的合并使XOM的股票数量在1999年攀升至70亿股左右（根据2001年的分拆进行调整），但尽管股票数量自1999年和2015年以来下降了很多，但没有必要再次分拆股票，因为XOM的股价并没有上涨太多。在2014-2015年油价暴跌之后，埃克森美孚并没有大幅降低其股票数量，而且其股价在此期间下跌，这使得股票分割变得更加没有必要——毕竟，如果无论如何都没有攀升并且股票数量相当稳定，该公司为什么要分割股票呢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Will XOM Stock Split Again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>XOM会再次进行股票分割吗</b></blockquote></p><p> Mostly, stock splits are done due to either of the following two reasons:</p><p><blockquote>大多数情况下，股票分割是出于以下两个原因之一：</blockquote></p><p> - Share prices have climbed by a lot and management believes it makes sense to have more shares at a lower price per share.</p><p><blockquote>-股价大幅上涨，管理层认为以较低的每股价格持有更多股票是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> - The share count has declined by a lot, and in order to increase liquidity, the company decides to split its shares.</p><p><blockquote>-股份数量下降了很多，为了增加流动性，公司决定拆股。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One can argue whether that makes sense, but since this method is employed by many companies all around the world, it seems to have its merits. In Exxon Mobil's case, neither of these two reasons are at play right now, which makes me believe that a stock split is unlikely in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>人们可以争论这是否有意义，但由于这种方法被世界各地的许多公司所采用，它似乎有其优点。就埃克森美孚而言，这两个原因目前都不起作用，这让我相信在可预见的未来不太可能进行股票分割。</blockquote></p><p> Exxon Mobil's share price is not really high, and in fact, it was much higher in the past, at more than $100 per share. Management did not feel a need for a stock split back then, so why would they want to split shares when they are at $60? On top of that, since Exxon Mobil's share count has not declined meaningfully in the recent past, liquidity shouldn't be a concern, either.</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚的股价并不是很高，事实上，过去的股价要高得多，每股100多美元。管理层当时并不认为有必要进行股票分割，那么当股价为60美元时，他们为什么要进行股票分割呢？最重要的是，由于埃克森美孚的股票数量最近没有大幅下降，流动性也不应该成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> Exxon Mobil's last stock split was done when the company had about 3.5 billion shares pre-split, the split prior to that was done when the company had about 1.3 billion shares pre-split. Stock splits prior to that were oftentimes done at pre-split share counts that were even lower than that. Right now, with 4.2 billion shares, Exxon Mobil's share count is substantially higher, and due to no meaningful buyback activity, it is doubtful whether XOM's share count will decline to a much lower level in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚上一次股票分割是在该公司拥有约35亿股分拆前股票时完成的，此前的分割是在该公司拥有约13亿股分拆前股票时完成的。在此之前的股票分割通常是在分割前的股票数量甚至更低的情况下进行的。目前，埃克森美孚的股票数量为42亿股，要高得多，而且由于没有有意义的回购活动，XOM的股票数量在可预见的未来是否会降至更低的水平值得怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> A stock split can, of course, not be ruled out, and it seems very much possible that XOM eventually splits its shares again at some point in the future, but for the next couple of years, this seems like a relatively unlikely scenario to me.</p><p><blockquote>当然，不能排除股票分割的可能性，XOM最终很有可能在未来的某个时候再次分割其股票，但在接下来的几年里，这对我来说似乎是一种相对不太可能的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is XOM A Good Stock To Buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>XOM是值得购买的好股票吗</b></blockquote></p><p> Even without a stock split, XOM can, of course, still be a solid investment. Oil prices have rallied quite a lot in 2021, and not surprisingly, shares of oil companies that had floundered in 2020 started to rise again. At $63 per share, XOM has experienced gains of a little more than 50% year-to-date, which is attractive for sure.</p><p><blockquote>当然，即使没有股票分割，XOM仍然可以是一项可靠的投资。2021年油价大幅上涨，毫不奇怪，2020年陷入困境的石油公司股价再次开始上涨。以每股63美元的价格，XOM今年迄今的涨幅略高于50%，这无疑具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Thanks to cuts in capital expenditures and exploration programs from XOM and most of its peers, oil prices could potentially have a lot more room to run in the coming years. A global economic recovery, which will fuel demand for oil and gas, coupled with weak demand growth due to conservative exploration programs could lift oil prices to $100 per barrel in the near term, some analysts believe. I personally don't want to bet on that by buying oil futures, but we generally agree that oil prices could have more room to run over the coming years - massive monetary stimulus that has lifted many commodity prices helps as well.</p><p><blockquote>由于XOM和大多数同行削减了资本支出和勘探计划，油价在未来几年可能有更大的上涨空间。一些分析师认为，全球经济复苏将刺激对石油和天然气的需求，加上保守的勘探计划导致的需求增长疲软，可能会在短期内将油价推升至每桶100美元。我个人不想通过购买石油期货来押注这一点，但我们普遍认为，油价在未来几年可能有更大的上涨空间——提振许多大宗商品价格的大规模货币刺激也有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> If oil prices do really reach $80, $90, $100, or even more, XOM should do very well, as its portfolio is generally optimized for low break-even costs, which would allow its assets to generate a lot of cash if the oil price environment is conductive. It should, however, be noted that more or less all other oil companies will do well in a high-oil-price environment as well, so this isn't a reason to buy XOM specifically.</p><p><blockquote>如果油价真的达到80美元、90美元、100美元，甚至更高，XOM应该会做得很好，因为其投资组合通常会针对低盈亏平衡成本进行优化，如果油价上涨，这将使其资产产生大量现金环境是导电的。然而，应该指出的是，或多或少所有其他石油公司在高油价环境下也会表现良好，因此这并不是专门购买XOM的理由。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at a comparison between Exxon Mobil and its peers, we see that XOM is quite expensive:</p><p><blockquote>通过埃克森美孚与同行的比较，我们发现XOM相当昂贵：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d23f901e4fbfea943119ab1b094399a7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"682\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> XOM, as well as Chevron (CVX), trades at substantial premiums compared to European peers such as BP (BP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) (RDS.B), and TotalEnergies (TTE). Exxon Mobil's 2021 earnings multiple, its 2022 earnings multiple, and its EV to EBITDA ratio are way higher than those of the European supermajors. Some may prefer the reluctance of XOM and CVX when it comes to ESG approaches, whereas BP, RDS, and TTE seem to be embracing a move towards renewables more ambitiously.</p><p><blockquote>与BP(BP)、荷兰皇家壳牌(RDS.A)(RDS.B)和TotalEnergies(TTE)等欧洲同行相比，XOM和雪佛龙(CVX)的交易价格大幅溢价。埃克森美孚2021年市盈率、2022年市盈率以及EV与EBITDA比率远高于欧洲超级巨头。在ESG方法方面，有些人可能更喜欢XOM和CVX的不情愿，而BP、RDS和TTE似乎更雄心勃勃地转向可再生能源。</blockquote></p><p> XOM and CVX also do have a better dividend track record compared to their European peers, two of which cut their dividends during the pandemic. But I personally do not think that it makes sense to buy shares of a supermajor at 17x forward earnings when other supermajors trade for less than 10x this year's expected profits. If oil prices continue to climb, the European peers will profit just as much, and they do have multiple expansion potential on top of that, which seems less likely for XOM and CVX.</p><p><blockquote>与欧洲同行相比，XOM和CVX也确实拥有更好的股息记录，其中两家在大流行期间削减了股息。但我个人认为，当其他超级巨头的交易价格低于今年预期利润的10倍时，以17倍的预期市盈率购买超级巨头的股票是没有意义的。如果油价继续攀升，欧洲同行也将获得同样多的利润，而且除此之外，他们确实还有多重扩张潜力，这对于XOM和CVX来说似乎不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> When one takes a look outside of the supermajor league, then the Canadian oil sands players do seem like attractive oil price plays as well, due to low cash costs, low-decline assets with long lifespans, and strong cash generation.</p><p><blockquote>当人们把目光投向超级大联盟之外时，加拿大油砂公司似乎也是有吸引力的油价公司，因为现金成本低、资产寿命长、跌幅低、现金生成能力强。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I think XOM could do well over the coming years as oil prices could easily climb further from the current level, but I don't think that XOM is the best play in the oil space. Other supermajors are much cheaper while providing similar upside if oil prices continue to climb, and more specialized quality players like some of the Canadian oil sands companies or high-quality US shale plays could be better choices than XOM as well. XOM thus looks solid as an oil price play, but there are better options available.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为XOM在未来几年可能会表现良好，因为油价很容易从当前水平进一步攀升，但我不认为XOM是石油领域的最佳选择。如果油价继续攀升，其他超级巨头的价格要便宜得多，同时也会提供类似的上涨空间，而一些加拿大油砂公司或优质美国页岩油公司等更专业的优质公司也可能是比XOM更好的选择。因此，XOM作为油价走势看起来很稳健，但还有更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Exxon Mobil Stock Split Again? What To Know<blockquote>埃克森美孚会再次进行股票分割吗？要知道什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Exxon Mobil Stock Split Again? What To Know<blockquote>埃克森美孚会再次进行股票分割吗？要知道什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 16:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Some investors do care a lot about stock splits, as those can fuel share price upside, as we saw last year when TSLA and AAPL split their stocks.</li> <li>XOM has regularly split its shares in the 20th century, but due to low share price growth, there have not been any splits in the recent past.</li> <li>We believe that another stock split in the foreseeable future is unlikely, but that doesn't mean that XOM must be a bad investment.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e640740db47b777095d060781cfc785c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Yuichiro Chino/Moment via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>一些投资者确实非常关心股票分割，因为这可以推动股价上涨，正如我们去年特斯拉和苹果公司分割股票时看到的那样。</li><li>XOM在20世纪定期进行股票分割，但由于股价增长较低，近期没有进行任何分割。</li><li>我们认为，在可预见的未来不太可能再次进行股票分割，但这并不意味着XOM一定是一项糟糕的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Yuichiro Chino/Moment来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) has put a lot of effort into reducing its share count in the past, which allowed the company to split its stock from time to time. In recent years, however, free cash flows were not especially strong, and the dividend payments soaked up most of those cash flows, which is why the share count has not declined meaningfully. On top of that, Exxon Mobil's shares have moved sideways for a long period of time, which made a stock split feel unnecessary.</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚公司（XOM）过去在减少股票数量方面付出了很多努力，这使得该公司能够不时地分割股票。然而，近年来，自由现金流并不是特别强劲，股息支付吸收了大部分现金流，这就是股票数量没有大幅下降的原因。最重要的是，埃克森美孚的股价长期横盘整理，这让人觉得没有必要进行股票分割。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, Exxon Mobil seems to be well-positioned to generate growing cash flows, but buybacks will likely still not be too hefty, as Exxon Mobil also has to improve its balance sheet. I thus don't expect another stock split in the near term, although that doesn't mean that Exxon Mobil must be a bad investment at all.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，埃克森美孚似乎处于有利地位，可以产生不断增长的现金流，但回购可能仍不会太大，因为埃克森美孚还必须改善其资产负债表。因此，我预计短期内不会再次进行股票分割，尽管这并不意味着埃克森美孚一定是一项糟糕的投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>XOM Stock Split History</b></p><p><blockquote><b>XOM股票分割历史</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking at Exxon Mobil's share price chart, we see that XOM has moved upwards relatively consistently for decades, up to around 2007. Due to these upward moves, splitting the stock regularly made sense, in order to prevent shares from getting too expensive. For the last 13 years or so, however, XOM has not continued to move up:</p><p><blockquote>看看埃克森美孚的股价图表，我们发现XOM几十年来一直相对持续地上涨，直到2007年左右。由于这些上涨，定期分割股票是有意义的，以防止股票变得太贵。然而，在过去13年左右的时间里，XOM并没有继续上升：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b3a69e9a81396a857ff39f218ec638\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Instead, its share price today is well below the $90s that XOM hit more than a decade ago. This can be explained by factors such as lower oil prices, compared to the highs that were hit in 2008, but some capital allocation mistakes, such as the overpriced takeover of XTO Energy, played a role as well. Due to the unconvincing share price performance in more than a decade, there was no need to split the stock further, which is why the last stock split occurred in 2001:</p><p><blockquote>相反，其目前的股价远低于XOM十多年前触及的90美元。与2008年触及的高点相比，油价较低等因素可以解释这一点，但一些资本配置错误，例如高价收购XTO Energy，也发挥了作用。由于十多年来股价表现不令人信服，因此没有必要进一步拆股，这也是上一次拆股发生在2001年的原因：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d72f854559be94be7b23b64ee7591e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>Source:exxonmobil.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：exxonmobil.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We see that Exxon Mobil split its stock 7 times between 1951 and 2001, so about once every seven years. If XOM would have kept that pace, about 2-3 stock splits would have occurred between 2001 and today, but there were none - a result of the weak share price performance in that time frame. In fact, shares of Exxon Mobil Corporation only rose by 42% since June 2001, when the last stock split occurred, and today. A 42% stock price increase in 20 years equates to annual returns of 1.8%, which is less than the rate of inflation - and there is no need to split the stock when it only climbs at that rate.</p><p><blockquote>我们看到埃克森美孚在1951年至2001年间将其股票分割了7次，大约每7年一次。如果XOM保持这一速度，从2001年到今天，大约会发生2-3次股票分割，但没有发生——这是该时间段内股价表现疲软的结果。事实上，埃克森美孚公司的股价自2001年6月（上次股票分割发生时）到今天仅上涨了42%。20年内股价上涨42%相当于年回报率1.8%，低于通货膨胀率——而且当股票仅以这个速度攀升时，没有必要分割股票。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the number of outstanding shares, we see that Exxon Mobil has been an avid repurchaser of shares for prolonged periods in the past, e.g. between 1980 and 2000:</p><p><blockquote>从流通股数量来看，我们发现埃克森美孚在过去很长一段时间内都是股票回购的狂热者，例如1980年至2000年间：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/734fd1f142bcebfaba862b90421b85fe\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>Note: This chart uses today's split-adjusted shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>注：此图表使用今天的分割调整后股票</i></blockquote></p><p> During that time frame, the company split its shares several times, which made sense, as this allowed for increased liquidity and a large float during times when the share count kept declining.</p><p><blockquote>在此期间，该公司多次分割股票，这是有道理的，因为这可以在股票数量持续下降的情况下增加流动性和大量流通量。</blockquote></p><p> The merger with Mobil made XOM's share count climb to around 7 billion shares in 1999 (adjusted for the split in 2001), but even though the share count has declined by a lot since 1999 and 2015, there wasn't a need to split shares another time, as XOM's share price had not moved up by a lot. Following the oil price crash in 2014-2015, Exxon Mobil has not lowered its share count meaningfully, and its shares have declined in that period, which made a stock split even less necessary - after all, why would the company split its stock, if it wasn't climbing anyways and if the share count was pretty constant?</p><p><blockquote>与美孚的合并使XOM的股票数量在1999年攀升至70亿股左右（根据2001年的分拆进行调整），但尽管股票数量自1999年和2015年以来下降了很多，但没有必要再次分拆股票，因为XOM的股价并没有上涨太多。在2014-2015年油价暴跌之后，埃克森美孚并没有大幅降低其股票数量，而且其股价在此期间下跌，这使得股票分割变得更加没有必要——毕竟，如果无论如何都没有攀升并且股票数量相当稳定，该公司为什么要分割股票呢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Will XOM Stock Split Again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>XOM会再次进行股票分割吗</b></blockquote></p><p> Mostly, stock splits are done due to either of the following two reasons:</p><p><blockquote>大多数情况下，股票分割是出于以下两个原因之一：</blockquote></p><p> - Share prices have climbed by a lot and management believes it makes sense to have more shares at a lower price per share.</p><p><blockquote>-股价大幅上涨，管理层认为以较低的每股价格持有更多股票是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> - The share count has declined by a lot, and in order to increase liquidity, the company decides to split its shares.</p><p><blockquote>-股份数量下降了很多，为了增加流动性，公司决定拆股。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One can argue whether that makes sense, but since this method is employed by many companies all around the world, it seems to have its merits. In Exxon Mobil's case, neither of these two reasons are at play right now, which makes me believe that a stock split is unlikely in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>人们可以争论这是否有意义，但由于这种方法被世界各地的许多公司所采用，它似乎有其优点。就埃克森美孚而言，这两个原因目前都不起作用，这让我相信在可预见的未来不太可能进行股票分割。</blockquote></p><p> Exxon Mobil's share price is not really high, and in fact, it was much higher in the past, at more than $100 per share. Management did not feel a need for a stock split back then, so why would they want to split shares when they are at $60? On top of that, since Exxon Mobil's share count has not declined meaningfully in the recent past, liquidity shouldn't be a concern, either.</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚的股价并不是很高，事实上，过去的股价要高得多，每股100多美元。管理层当时并不认为有必要进行股票分割，那么当股价为60美元时，他们为什么要进行股票分割呢？最重要的是，由于埃克森美孚的股票数量最近没有大幅下降，流动性也不应该成为一个问题。</blockquote></p><p> Exxon Mobil's last stock split was done when the company had about 3.5 billion shares pre-split, the split prior to that was done when the company had about 1.3 billion shares pre-split. Stock splits prior to that were oftentimes done at pre-split share counts that were even lower than that. Right now, with 4.2 billion shares, Exxon Mobil's share count is substantially higher, and due to no meaningful buyback activity, it is doubtful whether XOM's share count will decline to a much lower level in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚上一次股票分割是在该公司拥有约35亿股分拆前股票时完成的，此前的分割是在该公司拥有约13亿股分拆前股票时完成的。在此之前的股票分割通常是在分割前的股票数量甚至更低的情况下进行的。目前，埃克森美孚的股票数量为42亿股，要高得多，而且由于没有有意义的回购活动，XOM的股票数量在可预见的未来是否会降至更低的水平值得怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> A stock split can, of course, not be ruled out, and it seems very much possible that XOM eventually splits its shares again at some point in the future, but for the next couple of years, this seems like a relatively unlikely scenario to me.</p><p><blockquote>当然，不能排除股票分割的可能性，XOM最终很有可能在未来的某个时候再次分割其股票，但在接下来的几年里，这对我来说似乎是一种相对不太可能的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is XOM A Good Stock To Buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>XOM是值得购买的好股票吗</b></blockquote></p><p> Even without a stock split, XOM can, of course, still be a solid investment. Oil prices have rallied quite a lot in 2021, and not surprisingly, shares of oil companies that had floundered in 2020 started to rise again. At $63 per share, XOM has experienced gains of a little more than 50% year-to-date, which is attractive for sure.</p><p><blockquote>当然，即使没有股票分割，XOM仍然可以是一项可靠的投资。2021年油价大幅上涨，毫不奇怪，2020年陷入困境的石油公司股价再次开始上涨。以每股63美元的价格，XOM今年迄今的涨幅略高于50%，这无疑具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Thanks to cuts in capital expenditures and exploration programs from XOM and most of its peers, oil prices could potentially have a lot more room to run in the coming years. A global economic recovery, which will fuel demand for oil and gas, coupled with weak demand growth due to conservative exploration programs could lift oil prices to $100 per barrel in the near term, some analysts believe. I personally don't want to bet on that by buying oil futures, but we generally agree that oil prices could have more room to run over the coming years - massive monetary stimulus that has lifted many commodity prices helps as well.</p><p><blockquote>由于XOM和大多数同行削减了资本支出和勘探计划，油价在未来几年可能有更大的上涨空间。一些分析师认为，全球经济复苏将刺激对石油和天然气的需求，加上保守的勘探计划导致的需求增长疲软，可能会在短期内将油价推升至每桶100美元。我个人不想通过购买石油期货来押注这一点，但我们普遍认为，油价在未来几年可能有更大的上涨空间——提振许多大宗商品价格的大规模货币刺激也有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> If oil prices do really reach $80, $90, $100, or even more, XOM should do very well, as its portfolio is generally optimized for low break-even costs, which would allow its assets to generate a lot of cash if the oil price environment is conductive. It should, however, be noted that more or less all other oil companies will do well in a high-oil-price environment as well, so this isn't a reason to buy XOM specifically.</p><p><blockquote>如果油价真的达到80美元、90美元、100美元，甚至更高，XOM应该会做得很好，因为其投资组合通常会针对低盈亏平衡成本进行优化，如果油价上涨，这将使其资产产生大量现金环境是导电的。然而，应该指出的是，或多或少所有其他石油公司在高油价环境下也会表现良好，因此这并不是专门购买XOM的理由。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at a comparison between Exxon Mobil and its peers, we see that XOM is quite expensive:</p><p><blockquote>通过埃克森美孚与同行的比较，我们发现XOM相当昂贵：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d23f901e4fbfea943119ab1b094399a7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"682\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> XOM, as well as Chevron (CVX), trades at substantial premiums compared to European peers such as BP (BP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) (RDS.B), and TotalEnergies (TTE). Exxon Mobil's 2021 earnings multiple, its 2022 earnings multiple, and its EV to EBITDA ratio are way higher than those of the European supermajors. Some may prefer the reluctance of XOM and CVX when it comes to ESG approaches, whereas BP, RDS, and TTE seem to be embracing a move towards renewables more ambitiously.</p><p><blockquote>与BP(BP)、荷兰皇家壳牌(RDS.A)(RDS.B)和TotalEnergies(TTE)等欧洲同行相比，XOM和雪佛龙(CVX)的交易价格大幅溢价。埃克森美孚2021年市盈率、2022年市盈率以及EV与EBITDA比率远高于欧洲超级巨头。在ESG方法方面，有些人可能更喜欢XOM和CVX的不情愿，而BP、RDS和TTE似乎更雄心勃勃地转向可再生能源。</blockquote></p><p> XOM and CVX also do have a better dividend track record compared to their European peers, two of which cut their dividends during the pandemic. But I personally do not think that it makes sense to buy shares of a supermajor at 17x forward earnings when other supermajors trade for less than 10x this year's expected profits. If oil prices continue to climb, the European peers will profit just as much, and they do have multiple expansion potential on top of that, which seems less likely for XOM and CVX.</p><p><blockquote>与欧洲同行相比，XOM和CVX也确实拥有更好的股息记录，其中两家在大流行期间削减了股息。但我个人认为，当其他超级巨头的交易价格低于今年预期利润的10倍时，以17倍的预期市盈率购买超级巨头的股票是没有意义的。如果油价继续攀升，欧洲同行也将获得同样多的利润，而且除此之外，他们确实还有多重扩张潜力，这对于XOM和CVX来说似乎不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> When one takes a look outside of the supermajor league, then the Canadian oil sands players do seem like attractive oil price plays as well, due to low cash costs, low-decline assets with long lifespans, and strong cash generation.</p><p><blockquote>当人们把目光投向超级大联盟之外时，加拿大油砂公司似乎也是有吸引力的油价公司，因为现金成本低、资产寿命长、跌幅低、现金生成能力强。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I think XOM could do well over the coming years as oil prices could easily climb further from the current level, but I don't think that XOM is the best play in the oil space. Other supermajors are much cheaper while providing similar upside if oil prices continue to climb, and more specialized quality players like some of the Canadian oil sands companies or high-quality US shale plays could be better choices than XOM as well. XOM thus looks solid as an oil price play, but there are better options available.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为XOM在未来几年可能会表现良好，因为油价很容易从当前水平进一步攀升，但我不认为XOM是石油领域的最佳选择。如果油价继续攀升，其他超级巨头的价格要便宜得多，同时也会提供类似的上涨空间，而一些加拿大油砂公司或优质美国页岩油公司等更专业的优质公司也可能是比XOM更好的选择。因此，XOM作为油价走势看起来很稳健，但还有更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437218-will-exxon-mobil-stock-split-again\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XOM":"埃克森美孚"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437218-will-exxon-mobil-stock-split-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120348430","content_text":"Summary\n\nSome investors do care a lot about stock splits, as those can fuel share price upside, as we saw last year when TSLA and AAPL split their stocks.\nXOM has regularly split its shares in the 20th century, but due to low share price growth, there have not been any splits in the recent past.\nWe believe that another stock split in the foreseeable future is unlikely, but that doesn't mean that XOM must be a bad investment.\n\nYuichiro Chino/Moment via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nExxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) has put a lot of effort into reducing its share count in the past, which allowed the company to split its stock from time to time. In recent years, however, free cash flows were not especially strong, and the dividend payments soaked up most of those cash flows, which is why the share count has not declined meaningfully. On top of that, Exxon Mobil's shares have moved sideways for a long period of time, which made a stock split feel unnecessary.\nGoing forward, Exxon Mobil seems to be well-positioned to generate growing cash flows, but buybacks will likely still not be too hefty, as Exxon Mobil also has to improve its balance sheet. I thus don't expect another stock split in the near term, although that doesn't mean that Exxon Mobil must be a bad investment at all.\nXOM Stock Split History\nLooking at Exxon Mobil's share price chart, we see that XOM has moved upwards relatively consistently for decades, up to around 2007. Due to these upward moves, splitting the stock regularly made sense, in order to prevent shares from getting too expensive. For the last 13 years or so, however, XOM has not continued to move up:\nData by YCharts\nInstead, its share price today is well below the $90s that XOM hit more than a decade ago. This can be explained by factors such as lower oil prices, compared to the highs that were hit in 2008, but some capital allocation mistakes, such as the overpriced takeover of XTO Energy, played a role as well. Due to the unconvincing share price performance in more than a decade, there was no need to split the stock further, which is why the last stock split occurred in 2001:\nSource:exxonmobil.com\nWe see that Exxon Mobil split its stock 7 times between 1951 and 2001, so about once every seven years. If XOM would have kept that pace, about 2-3 stock splits would have occurred between 2001 and today, but there were none - a result of the weak share price performance in that time frame. In fact, shares of Exxon Mobil Corporation only rose by 42% since June 2001, when the last stock split occurred, and today. A 42% stock price increase in 20 years equates to annual returns of 1.8%, which is less than the rate of inflation - and there is no need to split the stock when it only climbs at that rate.\nLooking at the number of outstanding shares, we see that Exxon Mobil has been an avid repurchaser of shares for prolonged periods in the past, e.g. between 1980 and 2000:\nData by YCharts\nNote: This chart uses today's split-adjusted shares\nDuring that time frame, the company split its shares several times, which made sense, as this allowed for increased liquidity and a large float during times when the share count kept declining.\nThe merger with Mobil made XOM's share count climb to around 7 billion shares in 1999 (adjusted for the split in 2001), but even though the share count has declined by a lot since 1999 and 2015, there wasn't a need to split shares another time, as XOM's share price had not moved up by a lot. Following the oil price crash in 2014-2015, Exxon Mobil has not lowered its share count meaningfully, and its shares have declined in that period, which made a stock split even less necessary - after all, why would the company split its stock, if it wasn't climbing anyways and if the share count was pretty constant?\nWill XOM Stock Split Again\nMostly, stock splits are done due to either of the following two reasons:\n- Share prices have climbed by a lot and management believes it makes sense to have more shares at a lower price per share.\n- The share count has declined by a lot, and in order to increase liquidity, the company decides to split its shares.\nOne can argue whether that makes sense, but since this method is employed by many companies all around the world, it seems to have its merits. In Exxon Mobil's case, neither of these two reasons are at play right now, which makes me believe that a stock split is unlikely in the foreseeable future.\nExxon Mobil's share price is not really high, and in fact, it was much higher in the past, at more than $100 per share. Management did not feel a need for a stock split back then, so why would they want to split shares when they are at $60? On top of that, since Exxon Mobil's share count has not declined meaningfully in the recent past, liquidity shouldn't be a concern, either.\nExxon Mobil's last stock split was done when the company had about 3.5 billion shares pre-split, the split prior to that was done when the company had about 1.3 billion shares pre-split. Stock splits prior to that were oftentimes done at pre-split share counts that were even lower than that. Right now, with 4.2 billion shares, Exxon Mobil's share count is substantially higher, and due to no meaningful buyback activity, it is doubtful whether XOM's share count will decline to a much lower level in the foreseeable future.\nA stock split can, of course, not be ruled out, and it seems very much possible that XOM eventually splits its shares again at some point in the future, but for the next couple of years, this seems like a relatively unlikely scenario to me.\nIs XOM A Good Stock To Buy\nEven without a stock split, XOM can, of course, still be a solid investment. Oil prices have rallied quite a lot in 2021, and not surprisingly, shares of oil companies that had floundered in 2020 started to rise again. At $63 per share, XOM has experienced gains of a little more than 50% year-to-date, which is attractive for sure.\nThanks to cuts in capital expenditures and exploration programs from XOM and most of its peers, oil prices could potentially have a lot more room to run in the coming years. A global economic recovery, which will fuel demand for oil and gas, coupled with weak demand growth due to conservative exploration programs could lift oil prices to $100 per barrel in the near term, some analysts believe. I personally don't want to bet on that by buying oil futures, but we generally agree that oil prices could have more room to run over the coming years - massive monetary stimulus that has lifted many commodity prices helps as well.\nIf oil prices do really reach $80, $90, $100, or even more, XOM should do very well, as its portfolio is generally optimized for low break-even costs, which would allow its assets to generate a lot of cash if the oil price environment is conductive. It should, however, be noted that more or less all other oil companies will do well in a high-oil-price environment as well, so this isn't a reason to buy XOM specifically.\nLooking at a comparison between Exxon Mobil and its peers, we see that XOM is quite expensive:\nData by YCharts\nXOM, as well as Chevron (CVX), trades at substantial premiums compared to European peers such as BP (BP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) (RDS.B), and TotalEnergies (TTE). Exxon Mobil's 2021 earnings multiple, its 2022 earnings multiple, and its EV to EBITDA ratio are way higher than those of the European supermajors. Some may prefer the reluctance of XOM and CVX when it comes to ESG approaches, whereas BP, RDS, and TTE seem to be embracing a move towards renewables more ambitiously.\nXOM and CVX also do have a better dividend track record compared to their European peers, two of which cut their dividends during the pandemic. But I personally do not think that it makes sense to buy shares of a supermajor at 17x forward earnings when other supermajors trade for less than 10x this year's expected profits. If oil prices continue to climb, the European peers will profit just as much, and they do have multiple expansion potential on top of that, which seems less likely for XOM and CVX.\nWhen one takes a look outside of the supermajor league, then the Canadian oil sands players do seem like attractive oil price plays as well, due to low cash costs, low-decline assets with long lifespans, and strong cash generation.\nOverall, I think XOM could do well over the coming years as oil prices could easily climb further from the current level, but I don't think that XOM is the best play in the oil space. Other supermajors are much cheaper while providing similar upside if oil prices continue to climb, and more specialized quality players like some of the Canadian oil sands companies or high-quality US shale plays could be better choices than XOM as well. XOM thus looks solid as an oil price play, but there are better options available.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/158303311"}
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