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2021-07-02

Is a long term stock, so difficult to reliaze profit in short term. [呆住]

Palantir: Great Company, Risky Investment<blockquote>Palantir：伟大的公司，有风险的投资</blockquote>

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[呆住]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156635354","repostId":1115821085,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115821085","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625214660,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115821085?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 16:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Great Company, Risky Investment<blockquote>Palantir：伟大的公司，有风险的投资</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115821085","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir holds a unique place in the market and has a significant moat around this business","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Palantir holds a unique place in the market and has a significant moat around this business.</li> <li>Having said this, even under optimistic assumptions, Palantir looks overvalued.</li> <li>Furthermore, Palantir faces a unique and hard to control set of challenges.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b21fd364a3c58b289354c3e5b92fd0\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\">Maria Marganingsih/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Palantir在市场上占有独特的地位，并在该业务上拥有重要的护城河。</li><li>话虽如此，即使在乐观的假设下，Palantir看起来也被高估了。</li><li>此外，Palantir面临着一系列独特且难以控制的挑战。</li></ul>Maria Marganingsih/iStock来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is, by many accounts, an outstanding company. We believe that Palantir occupies a niche spot in the market, and has built a moat around its business thanks to its technology and workforce.<blockquote>许多人认为，Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)是一家杰出的公司。我们相信Palantir在市场上占据了利基市场，并凭借其技术和劳动力围绕其业务建立了护城河。</blockquote> We have derived a valuation for Palantir using trend analysis and comparables, with a 2030 horizon, where we tackle mainly profitability and equity dilution. Although our target price for that year is nearly $42 per share, this only represents a 4.6% annual growth rate from the current price.<blockquote>我们使用趋势分析和可比数据得出了Palantir的估值，展望2030年，我们主要解决盈利能力和股权稀释问题。尽管我们当年的目标价接近每股42美元，但这仅代表当前价格4.6%的年增长率。</blockquote> Ultimately, though Palantir is a great business, the current price does not offer investors attractive returns.<blockquote>最终，尽管Palantir是一家伟大的企业，但目前的价格并不能为投资者提供有吸引力的回报。</blockquote> What makes Palantir special?<blockquote>Palantir有什么特别之处？</blockquote> Palantir seems to be one of the most popular stocks to talk about in the last few months. The company, which has been around since 2003, but IPO'd only eight and a half months ago, is followed closely by both hawkish bears and delighted bulls. But why? What exactly makes Palantir so special?<blockquote>Palantir似乎是过去几个月最受欢迎的股票之一。该公司自2003年成立，但仅在八个半月前首次公开募股，受到鹰派空头和欣喜多头的密切关注。但是为什么呢？究竟是什么让Palantir如此特别？</blockquote> The bears would point out nothing, and while I do agree that, oftentimes, unwarranted hype is created around buzzwords like \"data\", I will argue here that Palantir is special. This is important because it puts Palantir in a great situation in terms of the competitive landscape and growth opportunities. However, it also creates a very particular set of \"risks\" and challenges for the company.<blockquote>看空者不会指出任何事情，虽然我确实同意，围绕“数据”等流行语经常进行毫无根据的炒作，但我在这里认为Palantir很特别。这很重要，因为它使Palantir在竞争格局和增长机会方面处于有利地位。然而，它也给公司带来了一系列非常特殊的“风险”和挑战。</blockquote> On the most superficial level, Palantir is a \"data analytics company\", which has found itself a nice spot on the list of government contractors, both domestic and abroad. This already makes the company more interesting than many others. There is nothing today growing faster than data, and at close second we could put government spending. However, this misses the point of what actually makes the company special, or, more specifically, what has allowed the company to gain so much favour with public institutions, and now private clients.<blockquote>从最表面的层面来看，Palantir是一家“数据分析公司”，它已经在国内外政府承包商名单上找到了一席之地。这已经使该公司比许多其他公司更有趣。如今，没有什么比数据增长得更快了，紧随其后的是政府支出。然而，这忽略了是什么让该公司真正与众不同，或者更具体地说，是什么让该公司获得了公共机构以及现在的私人客户的如此多的青睐。</blockquote> If we could put it into one sentence, we would say the following: Palantir walks a fine line between data analytics and consulting. Indeed, the company has some very powerful proprietary software, which we might as well call an AI, but it also has one of the most talented workforces in the world, with specific task forces being created to address the needs of each client/contract.<blockquote>如果我们可以用一句话来概括，我们会说：Palantir在数据分析和咨询之间徘徊。事实上，该公司拥有一些非常强大的专有软件，我们不妨将其看涨期权为人工智能，但它也拥有世界上最有才华的员工队伍之一，并创建了特定的工作组来满足每个客户/合同的需求。</blockquote> Think about it like a mix between McKinsey and International Business Machines (IBM). In practice, it's not enough to have a powerful computer that can find great insights. First, it has to be led in the right direction, and then those insights have to be implemented properly. And of course, once you implement new measures, these create a whole new set of variables and data, so you can rinse and repeat indefinitely.<blockquote>把它想象成麦肯锡和国际商业机器公司(IBM)的混合体。在实践中，仅仅拥有一台能够发现伟大见解的强大计算机是不够的。首先，它必须被引导到正确的方向，然后这些见解必须被正确地实施。当然，一旦你实施了新的措施，这些措施会创建一组全新的变量和数据，所以你可以无限期地冲洗和重复。</blockquote> This is what a lot of people miss about this company. Some think it just has great software, which it does, but its biggest asset, we would argue, is its \"business model\" which is powered by its workforce. Furthermore, many of those who do acknowledge the fact that Palantir relies heavily on using specialized employees to address their clients' needs point this out as a weakness rather than the great strength that it is. They would argue that Palantir has to spend a lot of money on employing people to help their clients use their product, which makes it less \"profitable\", but this is a very rudimentary understanding of the situation. It's true that it might not achieve such high margins as a traditional SaaS, but it definitely doesn't mean the company is unprofitable. Consulting firms, like McKinsey or Accenture plc (ACN), do just this, employ people to help out their clients, and they certainly don't seem to struggle to make a profit. Ultimately, a cost is justified as long as it brings sufficient value.<blockquote>这是很多人怀念这家公司的地方。有些人认为它只是拥有出色的软件，事实也的确如此，但我们认为，它最大的资产是由员工驱动的“商业模式”。此外，许多承认Palantir严重依赖使用专业员工来满足客户需求的人指出，这是一个弱点，而不是它的巨大优势。他们会争辩说，Palantir不得不花很多钱雇人来帮助他们的客户使用他们的产品，这使得它不那么“有利可图”，但这是对情况的非常初级的理解。诚然，它可能无法像传统SaaS那样实现如此高的利润率，但这绝对不意味着该公司无利可图。像麦肯锡或埃森哲公司（ACN）这样的咨询公司就是这样做的，雇佣人们来帮助他们的客户，而且他们似乎并不努力盈利。最终，只要成本带来足够的价值，它就是合理的。</blockquote> Does Palantir have a \"moat\"?<blockquote>Palantir有“护城河”吗？</blockquote> But even if Palantir is special; does this matter? How does this set it apart from its competitors? In this regard, Palantir faces three different sets of competitors:<blockquote>但即使Palantir很特别；这有关系吗？这如何将其与竞争对手区分开来？在这方面，Palantir面临三组不同的竞争对手：</blockquote> Firstly, Palantir is competing with traditional consulting firms. Ultimately, this is what the company does, since it is working hand-in-hand with its clients to improve their operations. Consulting firms like Accenture and McKinsey do this to a certain degree, but at the moment, they lack the technical requirements and niche focus that Palantir has.<blockquote>首先，Palantir正在与传统咨询公司竞争。最终，这就是该公司所做的，因为它正在与客户携手改善他们的运营。埃森哲和麦肯锡等咨询公司在一定程度上做到了这一点，但目前，他们缺乏Palantir所具备的技术要求和利基重点。</blockquote> From a data analytics sector perspective, Palantir could be put into the same category as companies like IBM or SAP SE (SAP). These companies do indeed have the necessary resources to compete with Palantir in terms of services, but not on price. These companies have been around for too long and are way too big to be able to compete in price with Palantir. They simply cannot scale down efficiently enough.<blockquote>从数据分析行业的角度来看，Palantir可以与IBM或SAP SE(SAP)等公司归入同一类别。这些公司确实拥有在服务方面与Palantir竞争的必要资源，但不是在价格上。这些公司已经存在太久了，规模太大，无法在价格上与Palantir竞争。他们根本无法足够有效地缩小规模。</blockquote> Lastly, the company competes head-to-head with other defence contractors such as Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH) and SAIC. The problem these firms have competing with Palantir is that they are not specialized enough within their offerings.<blockquote>最后，该公司与博思艾伦控股公司(BAH)和SAIC等其他国防承包商展开正面竞争。这些公司与Palantir竞争的问题是他们的产品不够专业化。</blockquote> To sum up, we would argue that Palantir's moat comes, firstly, from its business proposition. Palantir was created with a very clear idea behind it, which allowed it to be a niche company. This specialization also allows it to be more efficient, and offer clients more competitive prices.<blockquote>总而言之，我们认为Palantir的护城河首先来自于其商业主张。Palantir的创建背后有一个非常明确的想法，这使得它成为一家利基公司。这种专业化也使其更加高效，并为客户提供更具竞争力的价格。</blockquote> It is true that this business model can be copied. There is nothing stopping new companies from doing what Palantir is doing and there are some startups attempting to do this, such as&nbsp;Digital Reasoning, but bear in mind this company has only ever received $134 million in funding. What does set Palantir apart from its competitors and is something that they can't easily replicate is its workforce. Palantir spends a lot of money to find and keep the best talent in the industry. A big part of this is done through stock-based compensation, which is a hot topic&nbsp;I discussed here. In any case, Palantir has the advantage of being \"the place to be\" right now, within the industry. This popularity and recognition has increased even more since its IPO and is a key factor in attracting and retaining young talent. This talent is, ultimately, the company's biggest strength.<blockquote>诚然，这种商业模式是可以复制的。没有什么可以阻止新公司做Palantir正在做的事情，也有一些初创公司试图这样做，例如数字推理，但请记住，这家公司只获得了1.34亿美元的资金。Palantir与竞争对手的区别在于其员工队伍，这也是他们无法轻易复制的。Palantir花费大量资金寻找并留住业内最优秀的人才。其中很大一部分是通过基于股票的薪酬来完成的，这是我在这里讨论的一个热门话题。无论如何，Palantir具有目前行业内“最佳去处”的优势。自首次公开募股以来，这种受欢迎程度和认可度进一步提高，是吸引和留住年轻人才的关键因素。这种人才最终是公司最大的优势。</blockquote> Addressable Market &amp; Growth Opportunities<blockquote>潜在市场和增长机会</blockquote> With that said, let's proceed towards analysing Palantir's TAM and Growth outlook.<blockquote>话虽如此，让我们继续分析Palantir的TAM和增长前景。</blockquote> In the sections above, we mentioned how Palantir is in a unique situation, because it is both a consulting firm and a data analytics firm, and it also has significant government contracts. Therefore, we could look at TAM from these three perspectives:<blockquote>在上面的章节中，我们提到了Palantir的独特处境，因为它既是一家咨询公司，也是一家数据分析公司，而且还拥有重要的政府合同。因此，我们可以从以下三个角度来看待TAM：</blockquote> Starting with consulting, this is perhaps the least exciting of the three areas where Palantir can grow. According to research, the \"Management Consulting Services\" industry will grow at a CAGR of 8% through 2025, which would put the industry at a size of $1201.06 billion. Granted, this is not impressive growth but it is a remarkable size. In this sense, Palantir could actually attack much of this market, which is now dominated by \"the big four\".<blockquote>从咨询开始，这可能是Palantir可以发展的三个领域中最不令人兴奋的。根据研究，到2025年，“管理咨询服务”行业将以8%的CAGR增长，这将使该行业的规模达到12010.6亿美元。诚然，这并不是令人印象深刻的增长，但它是一个非凡的规模。从这个意义上说，Palantir实际上可以攻击这个目前由“四大”主导的市场的大部分。</blockquote> From the point of view of data analytics, we have a market that, in this case, is growing very fast. According to Quince Market Insights, this segment will grow at a&nbsp;CAGR of 25% in the next 10 years. Furthermore, studies have also found that, currently, companies only analyze around&nbsp;12% of their data.This creates a massive opportunity for a company like Palantir to come in, and show these companies exactly how and why they need to analyze their data.<blockquote>从数据分析的角度来看，我们有一个增长非常快的市场。根据Quince Market Insights的数据，该细分市场在未来10年将以25%的CAGR增长。此外，研究还发现，目前，公司只分析了大约12%的数据。这为像Palantir这样的公司创造了巨大的机会，并向这些公司展示了他们需要如何以及为什么分析他们的数据。</blockquote> Lastly, since Palantir works closely with the government, it is only reasonable to believe that the more it spends, the more Palantir will make.The CBO projects&nbsp;average yearly deficits of $1.2 trillion from 2022 to 2030. This is in line with the current tendency of continued increase in public spending, but what is most encouraging is where this spending will take place:<blockquote>最后，由于Palantir与政府密切合作，因此有理由相信它花的越多，Palantir赚的就越多。CBO预计，从2022年到2030年，年均赤字为1.2万亿美元。这与目前公共开支持续增加的趋势是一致的，但最令人鼓舞的是，这项开支将会发生在何处：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8330575726862d333c1cfabc18987a50\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"626\">Source:CBO.gov<blockquote>资料来源：CBO.gov</blockquote> By 2030, the biggest item on the Federal government's expense sheet will be Major Health Care Programs, which will be equivalent to 9% of GDP. Data from the NHE also suggest that by 2028 healthcare will be a&nbsp;$6.2 trillion business.Again, this is great news for Palantir, since data analytics within the healthcare industry is a high growth area. Palantir already has clients in this area, including the&nbsp;UK's National Health System[NHS].<blockquote>到2030年，联邦政府开支单上最大的项目将是主要的医疗保健项目，这将相当于GDP的9%。NHE的数据还表明，到2028年，医疗保健业务将达到6.2万亿美元。同样，这对Palantir来说是个好消息，因为医疗保健行业的数据分析是一个高增长领域。Palantir已经在该领域拥有客户，包括英国国家卫生系统[NHS]。</blockquote> All in all, Palantir has the benefit of working within a fast-growing sector, data, but with the ability of being able to deploy their technology and workforce to solve niche applications. Given that the data analytics industry is projected to grow at 25% and that Palantir has strong government connections, we believe the company could easily achieve analysts' goal of 30% CAGR over the next 5 years.<blockquote>总而言之，Palantir的优势在于在快速增长的数据领域工作，但也有能力部署他们的技术和劳动力来解决利基应用。鉴于数据分析行业预计将增长25%，并且Palantir拥有强大的政府关系，我们相信该公司可以轻松实现分析师未来5年复合年增长率30%的目标。</blockquote> Profitability Analysis<blockquote>盈利能力分析</blockquote> Profitability is expected to grow as revenues reach higher levels. The question that any investor would like answered is not only if this is going to be the case, but by how much. Our aim here is to make a forecast of Palantir revenues and earnings until 2030 so that we can later make a sound valuation of the stock through earnings multiples. The method used here is a combination of trendline analysis of existing financials, performances by most comparable competitors, and estimates by analysts and the company itself.<blockquote>随着收入达到更高水平，盈利能力预计将增长。任何投资者想要回答的问题不仅是这种情况是否会发生，而且会发生多少。我们的目标是预测Palantir到2030年的收入和收益，以便我们以后可以通过市盈率对该股票进行合理的估值。这里使用的方法是对现有财务状况的趋势线分析、大多数可比竞争对手的表现以及分析师和公司本身的估计的结合。</blockquote> We have already talked about the addressable market and growth prospects, now it is time to quantify the expected revenue path for Palantir. Since companies rarely sustain such high growth rates in the long run, we find that a second order polynomial trendline is often the best method to calculate this. This type of equation delivers a flatter curve than an exponential trendline, which assumes a constant growth rate. For Palantir's quarterly revenue, it is also a very good fit as you can see below. You can see the trendline along the actual revenue recorded in the last nine quarters, and a projection until 2030 Q4.<blockquote>我们已经讨论了潜在市场和增长前景，现在是时候量化Palantir的预期收入路径了。由于公司很少长期保持如此高的增长率，我们发现二阶多项式趋势线通常是计算这一点的最佳方法。这种类型的方程提供了比指数趋势线更平坦的曲线，指数趋势线假设增长率恒定。对于Palantir的季度收入来说，它也非常适合，如下所示。您可以看到过去九个季度记录的实际收入的趋势线，以及到2030年第四季度的预测。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acada8ddc443d930e8cb4e3929b42015\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Author's work based on financial records. Revenue in $million. Quarters are numbered from 1 (Q1 2019) to 48 (Q4 2030)<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务记录的工作。收入单位为百万美元。季度编号为1（2019年第一季度）至48（2030年第四季度）</blockquote> If you apply the function above you get a forecasted yearly revenue of 11.9 billion for 2030, including $3.1 billion in Q4 of that year. This is not far from the consensus estimate for 2030 you can find on Seeking Alpha, which is $12.42 billion. According to the latest earnings call, management expects to deliver 30%+ growth at least in the next four years. To put this into perspective, a CAGR of 30% until 2030 would give a revenue of $11.5 billion. Taking the three into account, we will keep our trendline estimate of 11.9, which lies between the other two figures.<blockquote>如果你应用上面的函数，你会得到2030年的预测年收入为119亿美元，其中包括当年第四季度的31亿美元。这与Seeking Alpha上对2030年的共识估计（124.2亿美元）相差不远。根据最新的收益看涨期权，管理层预计至少在未来四年内实现30%以上的增长。从这个角度来看，到2030年，30%的复合年增长率将带来115亿美元的收入。考虑到这三者，我们将保持趋势线估计值11.9，该值位于其他两个数字之间。</blockquote> Gross margins have been improving gradually according to GAAP figures over the last nine quarters, from nearly 68% in the first quarter of 2019 to over 78% in the latest quarter. Except for an unusually bad figure in Q3 2020, which has been taken out of the equation for a smoother analysis, the gross margin as a function of revenue shows a predictable path of improvement through a linear trend, as you can see in this chart.<blockquote>根据GAAP数据，过去九个季度的毛利率一直在逐步提高，从2019年第一季度的近68%提高到最近一个季度的78%以上。除了2020年第三季度异常糟糕的数据（为了更顺利的分析，该数据已从等式中删除）外，毛利率作为收入的函数通过线性趋势显示了可预测的改善路径，如您在此图表中看到的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9094dcdd5ddbc9df1499318bf694ad7a\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\">Source: Author's work based on financial records. Items in $million<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务记录的工作。项目（百万美元）</blockquote> Data excludes a figure of (289,140) from Q3 2020.<blockquote>数据不包括2020年第三季度的数字（289,140）。</blockquote> The linear equation above, with a 0.9 slope, generates a forecast where the gross margin should tend towards 90% of revenue. Applying this formula to the forecasted revenue of $11.9 billion predicts a gross margin figure of $10.6 billion for 2030.<blockquote>上面的线性方程斜率为0.9，预测毛利率应趋向于收入的90%。将此公式应用于119亿美元的预测收入，预计2030年的毛利率为106亿美元。</blockquote> In order to transform gross margins into net income, so that we can make a valuation based on an earnings multiple, we will look at one of Palantir's comparables, discussed&nbsp;in a previous article, Cognizant (NASDAQ:CTSH). The reason for using Cognizant is that not only is the activity they carry out similar but it is also an example of a profitable pier with a fairly consistent earnings margin, and with debt and gross margin volumes comparable to the ones we are predicting for Palantir.<blockquote>为了将毛利率转化为净利润，以便我们可以根据市盈率进行估值，我们将研究Palantir的可比公司之一，如上一篇文章中所讨论的，Cognizant（纳斯达克股票代码：CTSH）。使用Cognizant的原因是，他们开展的活动不仅相似，而且它也是一个盈利码头的例子，利润率相当稳定，债务和毛利率与我们对Palantir的预测相当。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7effd28b7de277b78a107d14608164ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\">Source: Author's work.<blockquote>来源：作者作品。</blockquote> With gross margins stable at around 6 billion in recent years, CTSH has maintained a healthy level of net income, ranging from 22% to 35% of gross profits. To make a fair estimate, we will assume the average percentage through the 10-year period, which is 30.61% of gross profit. We will also assume that Palantir achieves that level in 2030, with a gradual increase of the percentage until then.<blockquote>近年来毛利率稳定在60亿左右，CTSH净利润保持在健康水平，占毛利润的22%至35%不等。为了做出公平的估计，我们将假设10年期间的平均百分比，即毛利的30.61%。我们还假设Palantir将在2030年达到这一水平，并在此之前逐步增加百分比。</blockquote> This completes our revenue and earnings estimates for Palantir in 2030, reaching 11.9 billion revenue, $10.6 billion gross margin, and $3.3 billion net income.<blockquote>这完成了我们对Palantir 2030年收入和盈利的预测，收入达到119亿美元，毛利率达到106亿美元，净利润达到33亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Year<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2021<blockquote><td>2021</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022<blockquote><td>2022</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023<blockquote><td>2023</td></blockquote></td> <td>2024<blockquote><td>2024</td></blockquote></td> <td>2025<blockquote><td>2025</td></blockquote></td> <td>2026<blockquote><td>2026</td></blockquote></td> <td>2027<blockquote><td>2027</td></blockquote></td> <td>2028<blockquote><td>2028</td></blockquote></td> <td>2029<blockquote><td>2029</td></blockquote></td> <td>2030<blockquote><td>2030</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Reven.<blockquote><tr><td>雷文。</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,581<blockquote><td>1,581</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,196<blockquote><td>2,196</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,942<blockquote><td>2,942</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,820<blockquote><td>3,820</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,830<blockquote><td>4,830</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,972<blockquote><td>5,972</td></blockquote></td> <td>7,245<blockquote><td>7,245</td></blockquote></td> <td>8,650<blockquote><td>8,650</td></blockquote></td> <td>10,188<blockquote><td>10,188</td></blockquote></td> <td>11,856<blockquote><td>11,856</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gross Profit<blockquote><tr><td>毛利</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,382<blockquote><td>1,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>1,936<blockquote><td>1,936</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,608<blockquote><td>2,608</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,399<blockquote><td>3,399</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,309<blockquote><td>4,309</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,338<blockquote><td>5,338</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,485<blockquote><td>6,485</td></blockquote></td> <td>7,751<blockquote><td>7,751</td></blockquote></td> <td>9,136<blockquote><td>9,136</td></blockquote></td> <td>10,639<blockquote><td>10,639</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Net Income<blockquote><tr><td>净收入</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42<blockquote><td>42</td></blockquote></td> <td>119<blockquote><td>119</td></blockquote></td> <td>240<blockquote><td>240</td></blockquote></td> <td>416<blockquote><td>416</td></blockquote></td> <td>660<blockquote><td>660</td></blockquote></td> <td>980<blockquote><td>980</td></blockquote></td> <td>1,390<blockquote><td>1,390</td></blockquote></td> <td>1,898<blockquote><td>1,898</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,517<blockquote><td>2,517</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,257<blockquote><td>3,257</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Author's work. Items in $millions.<blockquote>来源：作者作品。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> Having forecasted revenues and earnings, we are prepared to estimate a path for Palantir's stock price. In order to do this, we need to also look into financing through equity and how the dilution will affect share prices. We are going to continue using the 2030 horizon as the timeframe.<blockquote>预测收入和盈利后，我们准备估计Palantir股价的走势。为了做到这一点，我们还需要研究通过股权融资以及稀释将如何影响股价。我们将继续使用2030年作为时间框架。</blockquote> First, we will create an estimate for market capitalization based on the current sector median earnings multiple, and then we will make a forecast for the dilution. The current GAAP TTM Price/earnings ratio for the sector is 33.94. The assumption here is that as Palantir becomes profitable, its valuation should approach this multiple and be fairly valued for its earnings. Based on the earnings we forecasted and the 33.94 PE ratio, we get the following estimated market capitalizations:<blockquote>首先，我们将根据当前行业市盈率中位数对市值进行估计，然后对稀释进行预测。该行业目前的GAAP TTM市盈率为33.94。这里的假设是，随着Palantir实现盈利，其估值应接近该倍数，并且其盈利估值合理。根据我们预测的盈利和33.94的市盈率，我们得到以下估计市值：</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Year<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2021<blockquote><td>2021</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022<blockquote><td>2022</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023<blockquote><td>2023</td></blockquote></td> <td>2024<blockquote><td>2024</td></blockquote></td> <td>2025<blockquote><td>2025</td></blockquote></td> <td>2026<blockquote><td>2026</td></blockquote></td> <td>2027<blockquote><td>2027</td></blockquote></td> <td>2028<blockquote><td>2028</td></blockquote></td> <td>2029<blockquote><td>2029</td></blockquote></td> <td>2030<blockquote><td>2030</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Net Inc.<blockquote><tr><td>网络公司。</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42<blockquote><td>42</td></blockquote></td> <td>119<blockquote><td>119</td></blockquote></td> <td>240<blockquote><td>240</td></blockquote></td> <td>416<blockquote><td>416</td></blockquote></td> <td>660<blockquote><td>660</td></blockquote></td> <td>980<blockquote><td>980</td></blockquote></td> <td>1,390<blockquote><td>1,390</td></blockquote></td> <td>1,898<blockquote><td>1,898</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,517<blockquote><td>2,517</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,257<blockquote><td>3,257</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mkt. Cap [PE]<blockquote><tr><td>市场。帽[PE]</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,436<blockquote><td>1,436</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,023<blockquote><td>4,023</td></blockquote></td> <td>8,129<blockquote><td>8,129</td></blockquote></td> <td>14,126<blockquote><td>14,126</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,384<blockquote><td>22,384</td></blockquote></td> <td>33,272<blockquote><td>33,272</td></blockquote></td> <td>47,160<blockquote><td>47,160</td></blockquote></td> <td>64,420<blockquote><td>64,420</td></blockquote></td> <td>85,421<blockquote><td>85,421</td></blockquote></td> <td>110,532<blockquote><td>110,532</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Author's work. Items in $millions.<blockquote>来源：作者作品。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> As you can see, the current market capitalization of slightly over $50 billion wouldn't be justified by earnings until after 2027, reaching a level of $111 billion by 2030. This represents a CAGR of just 8.57%, before we take dilution into account.<blockquote>正如您所看到的，目前略高于500亿美元的市值要到2027年之后才能被盈利证明是合理的，到2030年将达到1110亿美元的水平。在我们考虑稀释之前，这意味着复合年增长率仅为8.57%。</blockquote> In order to predict how the number of common shares is likely to evolve over these years, we have made a forecast of the book value based on revenue, assuming the balance sheet maintains a similar structure relative to the volume of operations. If we look at the last four quarters, we have a fairly consistent linear pattern of how book value has increased with quarterly revenue, as you can see below.<blockquote>为了预测这些年普通股数量可能如何演变，我们根据收入对账面价值进行了预测，假设资产负债表相对于业务量保持类似的结构。如果我们看看过去四个季度，我们会发现账面价值随季度收入增长的线性模式相当一致，如下所示。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9066505bd8b5fce4ebf0d4f538a4bafe\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\">Source: Author's work based on financial records. Items in $million<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务记录的工作。项目（百万美元）</blockquote> Applying this equation, with a revenue of $3.1 billion in Q4 2030, as per our previous forecast, the book value should rise to $34.2 billion. If we take into account the current book value of 1.8 billion and the accumulated net income we have already forecasted for the whole period, which is $11.5 billion, we estimate that an additional $20.9 billion of funding through new equity will be required. At the current share price of $27.37, this would mean 739 million additional common shares by the end of 2030. Added to the current 1.8 billion outstanding, the total is 2.6 billion common shares. Applying the $111 billion market capitalization we have forecasted, the resulting target price for the end of 2030 is $41.87. You can see a summary of these figures below.<blockquote>应用这个等式，根据我们之前的预测，2030年第四季度的收入为31亿美元，账面价值应升至342亿美元。如果我们考虑到当前18亿美元的账面价值以及我们已经预测的整个期间的累计净利润115亿美元，我们估计将需要通过新股权额外筹集209亿美元的资金。按照目前27.37美元的股价计算，这意味着到2030年底将增加7.39亿股普通股。加上目前已发行的18亿股，普通股总数为26亿股。应用我们预测的1110亿美元市值，2030年底的目标价为41.87美元。您可以在下面看到这些数字的摘要。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Concept<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>概念</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>Amount<blockquote><td>数量</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Revenue Q4 2030<blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度收入</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>3,128<blockquote><td>3,128</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Book Value Q4 2030<blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度账面价值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34,212<blockquote><td>34,212</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Book Value Q1 2021<blockquote><tr><td>2021年第一季度账面价值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,806<blockquote><td>1,806</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Acc. Net Income Q2 2021-Q4 2030<blockquote><tr><td>Acc.2021年第二季度-2030年第四季度净利润</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>11,517<blockquote><td>11,517</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Financing from new equity<blockquote><tr><td>新增股权融资</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>20,889<blockquote><td>20,889</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Current Share Price<blockquote><tr><td>当前股价</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>$ 27.37<blockquote><td>$27.37</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>New shares required<blockquote><tr><td>所需新股</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>763<blockquote><td>763</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Market cap 2030 Q4<blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度市值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>110,532<blockquote><td>110,532</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nº Shares 2030 Q4 (millions)<blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度股数（百万）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2,640<blockquote><td>2,640</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Target Price 2030 Q4<blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度目标价</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>$ 41.87<blockquote><td>$41.87</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>CAGR<blockquote><tr><td>CAGR</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>4.58%<blockquote><td>4.58%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Author's work. Monetary items in $millions, except per share items, nº of shares in millions.<blockquote>来源：作者作品。货币项目以百万美元为单位，每股项目除外，股份数量以百万为单位。</blockquote> As you can see, the expected CAGR for Palantir's stock price as per our forecasted fair value at the end of 2030 is just 4.58%. If we were to require, say, a 10% return, which is more reasonable for a growth stock, the fair price today would be $16.93, 38% lower than the current price.<blockquote>如您所见，根据我们预测的2030年底公允价值，Palantir股价的预期复合年增长率仅为4.58%。如果我们要求10%的回报率（这对于成长型股票来说更合理），那么今天的公平价格将是16.93美元，比当前价格低38%。</blockquote> Risks<blockquote>风险</blockquote> Having said all this, we also have to mention some particular challenges that a company like Palantir faces. The most significant of these would relate to how the company has to manage its image in a world where privacy is becoming \"taboo\".<blockquote>说了这么多，我们还必须提到像Palantir这样的公司面临的一些特殊挑战。其中最重要的是，在一个隐私正成为“禁忌”的世界里，该公司必须如何管理自己的形象。</blockquote> Palantir is a company that, on many levels, has a lot of power, which can be both a blessing and a curse. The company has to be very careful with its data to avoid any events that could damage its reputation, which it needs in order to survive. Think, for example, Edward Snowden, who before becoming one of the most wanted men in the world was working for Booz Allen. What would happen if the next whistleblower came from within Palantir's ranks?<blockquote>Palantir是一家在很多层面上都拥有巨大权力的公司，这既可能是福也可能是祸。该公司必须非常小心地处理其数据，以避免任何可能损害其声誉的事件，而这是其生存所必需的。以爱德华·斯诺登为例，他在成为世界头号通缉犯之一之前曾在博思艾伦工作。如果下一个举报人来自Palantir内部会发生什么？</blockquote> On top of that, Palantir is also facing resistance from organizations abroad. For example, there is currently a campaign in the UK trying to stop Palantir fromworking with the NHS. It's understandable that some people may not want their medical data to be handled by a foreign company, even if it is from an allied country.<blockquote>除此之外，Palantir还面临着来自海外组织的阻力。例如，目前英国有一场运动试图阻止Palantir与NHS合作。可以理解的是，有些人可能不希望他们的医疗数据由外国公司处理，即使它来自盟国。</blockquote> Ultimately, these are very particular challenges that Palantir faces. Its growth could be hampered if people or even the government start to think the company is \"too powerful\". Furthermore, if anything happened to damage the company's reputation, Palantir could be finished overnight. Of course, this is why the company invests so heavily in its workforce. But will it be enough?<blockquote>最终，这些都是Palantir面临的非常特殊的挑战。如果人们甚至政府开始认为该公司“过于强大”，其增长可能会受到阻碍。此外，如果发生任何损害公司声誉的事情，Palantir可能会在一夜之间被终结。当然，这也是公司在员工方面投入如此之多的原因。但这就够了吗？</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, we believe Palantir is qualitatively a great company. They operate in a niche market with a lot of growth potential. On top of that, Palantir has one of the best technologies and workforces in the market right now, but this is not enough. Even with double-digit growth and assuming a steady path towards profitability, Palantir seems way too expensive today to provide investors with good returns. A great company doesn't always make a great investment, and we feel this is the case with Palantir.<blockquote>总之，我们相信Palantir在质量上是一家伟大的公司。他们在一个具有巨大增长潜力的利基市场运营。最重要的是，Palantir拥有目前市场上最好的技术和劳动力之一，但这还不够。即使Palantir实现了两位数的增长并稳步实现盈利，但如今的Palantir似乎过于昂贵，无法为投资者提供良好的回报。一家伟大的公司并不总是做出伟大的投资，我们认为Palantir就是这种情况。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Great Company, Risky Investment<blockquote>Palantir：伟大的公司，有风险的投资</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Great Company, Risky Investment<blockquote>Palantir：伟大的公司，有风险的投资</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-07-02 16:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Palantir holds a unique place in the market and has a significant moat around this business.</li> <li>Having said this, even under optimistic assumptions, Palantir looks overvalued.</li> <li>Furthermore, Palantir faces a unique and hard to control set of challenges.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b21fd364a3c58b289354c3e5b92fd0\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\">Maria Marganingsih/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Palantir在市场上占有独特的地位，并在该业务上拥有重要的护城河。</li><li>话虽如此，即使在乐观的假设下，Palantir看起来也被高估了。</li><li>此外，Palantir面临着一系列独特且难以控制的挑战。</li></ul>Maria Marganingsih/iStock来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is, by many accounts, an outstanding company. We believe that Palantir occupies a niche spot in the market, and has built a moat around its business thanks to its technology and workforce.<blockquote>许多人认为，Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)是一家杰出的公司。我们相信Palantir在市场上占据了利基市场，并凭借其技术和劳动力围绕其业务建立了护城河。</blockquote> We have derived a valuation for Palantir using trend analysis and comparables, with a 2030 horizon, where we tackle mainly profitability and equity dilution. Although our target price for that year is nearly $42 per share, this only represents a 4.6% annual growth rate from the current price.<blockquote>我们使用趋势分析和可比数据得出了Palantir的估值，展望2030年，我们主要解决盈利能力和股权稀释问题。尽管我们当年的目标价接近每股42美元，但这仅代表当前价格4.6%的年增长率。</blockquote> Ultimately, though Palantir is a great business, the current price does not offer investors attractive returns.<blockquote>最终，尽管Palantir是一家伟大的企业，但目前的价格并不能为投资者提供有吸引力的回报。</blockquote> What makes Palantir special?<blockquote>Palantir有什么特别之处？</blockquote> Palantir seems to be one of the most popular stocks to talk about in the last few months. The company, which has been around since 2003, but IPO'd only eight and a half months ago, is followed closely by both hawkish bears and delighted bulls. But why? What exactly makes Palantir so special?<blockquote>Palantir似乎是过去几个月最受欢迎的股票之一。该公司自2003年成立，但仅在八个半月前首次公开募股，受到鹰派空头和欣喜多头的密切关注。但是为什么呢？究竟是什么让Palantir如此特别？</blockquote> The bears would point out nothing, and while I do agree that, oftentimes, unwarranted hype is created around buzzwords like \"data\", I will argue here that Palantir is special. This is important because it puts Palantir in a great situation in terms of the competitive landscape and growth opportunities. However, it also creates a very particular set of \"risks\" and challenges for the company.<blockquote>看空者不会指出任何事情，虽然我确实同意，围绕“数据”等流行语经常进行毫无根据的炒作，但我在这里认为Palantir很特别。这很重要，因为它使Palantir在竞争格局和增长机会方面处于有利地位。然而，它也给公司带来了一系列非常特殊的“风险”和挑战。</blockquote> On the most superficial level, Palantir is a \"data analytics company\", which has found itself a nice spot on the list of government contractors, both domestic and abroad. This already makes the company more interesting than many others. There is nothing today growing faster than data, and at close second we could put government spending. However, this misses the point of what actually makes the company special, or, more specifically, what has allowed the company to gain so much favour with public institutions, and now private clients.<blockquote>从最表面的层面来看，Palantir是一家“数据分析公司”，它已经在国内外政府承包商名单上找到了一席之地。这已经使该公司比许多其他公司更有趣。如今，没有什么比数据增长得更快了，紧随其后的是政府支出。然而，这忽略了是什么让该公司真正与众不同，或者更具体地说，是什么让该公司获得了公共机构以及现在的私人客户的如此多的青睐。</blockquote> If we could put it into one sentence, we would say the following: Palantir walks a fine line between data analytics and consulting. Indeed, the company has some very powerful proprietary software, which we might as well call an AI, but it also has one of the most talented workforces in the world, with specific task forces being created to address the needs of each client/contract.<blockquote>如果我们可以用一句话来概括，我们会说：Palantir在数据分析和咨询之间徘徊。事实上，该公司拥有一些非常强大的专有软件，我们不妨将其看涨期权为人工智能，但它也拥有世界上最有才华的员工队伍之一，并创建了特定的工作组来满足每个客户/合同的需求。</blockquote> Think about it like a mix between McKinsey and International Business Machines (IBM). In practice, it's not enough to have a powerful computer that can find great insights. First, it has to be led in the right direction, and then those insights have to be implemented properly. And of course, once you implement new measures, these create a whole new set of variables and data, so you can rinse and repeat indefinitely.<blockquote>把它想象成麦肯锡和国际商业机器公司(IBM)的混合体。在实践中，仅仅拥有一台能够发现伟大见解的强大计算机是不够的。首先，它必须被引导到正确的方向，然后这些见解必须被正确地实施。当然，一旦你实施了新的措施，这些措施会创建一组全新的变量和数据，所以你可以无限期地冲洗和重复。</blockquote> This is what a lot of people miss about this company. Some think it just has great software, which it does, but its biggest asset, we would argue, is its \"business model\" which is powered by its workforce. Furthermore, many of those who do acknowledge the fact that Palantir relies heavily on using specialized employees to address their clients' needs point this out as a weakness rather than the great strength that it is. They would argue that Palantir has to spend a lot of money on employing people to help their clients use their product, which makes it less \"profitable\", but this is a very rudimentary understanding of the situation. It's true that it might not achieve such high margins as a traditional SaaS, but it definitely doesn't mean the company is unprofitable. Consulting firms, like McKinsey or Accenture plc (ACN), do just this, employ people to help out their clients, and they certainly don't seem to struggle to make a profit. Ultimately, a cost is justified as long as it brings sufficient value.<blockquote>这是很多人怀念这家公司的地方。有些人认为它只是拥有出色的软件，事实也的确如此，但我们认为，它最大的资产是由员工驱动的“商业模式”。此外，许多承认Palantir严重依赖使用专业员工来满足客户需求的人指出，这是一个弱点，而不是它的巨大优势。他们会争辩说，Palantir不得不花很多钱雇人来帮助他们的客户使用他们的产品，这使得它不那么“有利可图”，但这是对情况的非常初级的理解。诚然，它可能无法像传统SaaS那样实现如此高的利润率，但这绝对不意味着该公司无利可图。像麦肯锡或埃森哲公司（ACN）这样的咨询公司就是这样做的，雇佣人们来帮助他们的客户，而且他们似乎并不努力盈利。最终，只要成本带来足够的价值，它就是合理的。</blockquote> Does Palantir have a \"moat\"?<blockquote>Palantir有“护城河”吗？</blockquote> But even if Palantir is special; does this matter? How does this set it apart from its competitors? In this regard, Palantir faces three different sets of competitors:<blockquote>但即使Palantir很特别；这有关系吗？这如何将其与竞争对手区分开来？在这方面，Palantir面临三组不同的竞争对手：</blockquote> Firstly, Palantir is competing with traditional consulting firms. Ultimately, this is what the company does, since it is working hand-in-hand with its clients to improve their operations. Consulting firms like Accenture and McKinsey do this to a certain degree, but at the moment, they lack the technical requirements and niche focus that Palantir has.<blockquote>首先，Palantir正在与传统咨询公司竞争。最终，这就是该公司所做的，因为它正在与客户携手改善他们的运营。埃森哲和麦肯锡等咨询公司在一定程度上做到了这一点，但目前，他们缺乏Palantir所具备的技术要求和利基重点。</blockquote> From a data analytics sector perspective, Palantir could be put into the same category as companies like IBM or SAP SE (SAP). These companies do indeed have the necessary resources to compete with Palantir in terms of services, but not on price. These companies have been around for too long and are way too big to be able to compete in price with Palantir. They simply cannot scale down efficiently enough.<blockquote>从数据分析行业的角度来看，Palantir可以与IBM或SAP SE(SAP)等公司归入同一类别。这些公司确实拥有在服务方面与Palantir竞争的必要资源，但不是在价格上。这些公司已经存在太久了，规模太大，无法在价格上与Palantir竞争。他们根本无法足够有效地缩小规模。</blockquote> Lastly, the company competes head-to-head with other defence contractors such as Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH) and SAIC. The problem these firms have competing with Palantir is that they are not specialized enough within their offerings.<blockquote>最后，该公司与博思艾伦控股公司(BAH)和SAIC等其他国防承包商展开正面竞争。这些公司与Palantir竞争的问题是他们的产品不够专业化。</blockquote> To sum up, we would argue that Palantir's moat comes, firstly, from its business proposition. Palantir was created with a very clear idea behind it, which allowed it to be a niche company. This specialization also allows it to be more efficient, and offer clients more competitive prices.<blockquote>总而言之，我们认为Palantir的护城河首先来自于其商业主张。Palantir的创建背后有一个非常明确的想法，这使得它成为一家利基公司。这种专业化也使其更加高效，并为客户提供更具竞争力的价格。</blockquote> It is true that this business model can be copied. There is nothing stopping new companies from doing what Palantir is doing and there are some startups attempting to do this, such as&nbsp;Digital Reasoning, but bear in mind this company has only ever received $134 million in funding. What does set Palantir apart from its competitors and is something that they can't easily replicate is its workforce. Palantir spends a lot of money to find and keep the best talent in the industry. A big part of this is done through stock-based compensation, which is a hot topic&nbsp;I discussed here. In any case, Palantir has the advantage of being \"the place to be\" right now, within the industry. This popularity and recognition has increased even more since its IPO and is a key factor in attracting and retaining young talent. This talent is, ultimately, the company's biggest strength.<blockquote>诚然，这种商业模式是可以复制的。没有什么可以阻止新公司做Palantir正在做的事情，也有一些初创公司试图这样做，例如数字推理，但请记住，这家公司只获得了1.34亿美元的资金。Palantir与竞争对手的区别在于其员工队伍，这也是他们无法轻易复制的。Palantir花费大量资金寻找并留住业内最优秀的人才。其中很大一部分是通过基于股票的薪酬来完成的，这是我在这里讨论的一个热门话题。无论如何，Palantir具有目前行业内“最佳去处”的优势。自首次公开募股以来，这种受欢迎程度和认可度进一步提高，是吸引和留住年轻人才的关键因素。这种人才最终是公司最大的优势。</blockquote> Addressable Market &amp; Growth Opportunities<blockquote>潜在市场和增长机会</blockquote> With that said, let's proceed towards analysing Palantir's TAM and Growth outlook.<blockquote>话虽如此，让我们继续分析Palantir的TAM和增长前景。</blockquote> In the sections above, we mentioned how Palantir is in a unique situation, because it is both a consulting firm and a data analytics firm, and it also has significant government contracts. Therefore, we could look at TAM from these three perspectives:<blockquote>在上面的章节中，我们提到了Palantir的独特处境，因为它既是一家咨询公司，也是一家数据分析公司，而且还拥有重要的政府合同。因此，我们可以从以下三个角度来看待TAM：</blockquote> Starting with consulting, this is perhaps the least exciting of the three areas where Palantir can grow. According to research, the \"Management Consulting Services\" industry will grow at a CAGR of 8% through 2025, which would put the industry at a size of $1201.06 billion. Granted, this is not impressive growth but it is a remarkable size. In this sense, Palantir could actually attack much of this market, which is now dominated by \"the big four\".<blockquote>从咨询开始，这可能是Palantir可以发展的三个领域中最不令人兴奋的。根据研究，到2025年，“管理咨询服务”行业将以8%的CAGR增长，这将使该行业的规模达到12010.6亿美元。诚然，这并不是令人印象深刻的增长，但它是一个非凡的规模。从这个意义上说，Palantir实际上可以攻击这个目前由“四大”主导的市场的大部分。</blockquote> From the point of view of data analytics, we have a market that, in this case, is growing very fast. According to Quince Market Insights, this segment will grow at a&nbsp;CAGR of 25% in the next 10 years. Furthermore, studies have also found that, currently, companies only analyze around&nbsp;12% of their data.This creates a massive opportunity for a company like Palantir to come in, and show these companies exactly how and why they need to analyze their data.<blockquote>从数据分析的角度来看，我们有一个增长非常快的市场。根据Quince Market Insights的数据，该细分市场在未来10年将以25%的CAGR增长。此外，研究还发现，目前，公司只分析了大约12%的数据。这为像Palantir这样的公司创造了巨大的机会，并向这些公司展示了他们需要如何以及为什么分析他们的数据。</blockquote> Lastly, since Palantir works closely with the government, it is only reasonable to believe that the more it spends, the more Palantir will make.The CBO projects&nbsp;average yearly deficits of $1.2 trillion from 2022 to 2030. This is in line with the current tendency of continued increase in public spending, but what is most encouraging is where this spending will take place:<blockquote>最后，由于Palantir与政府密切合作，因此有理由相信它花的越多，Palantir赚的就越多。CBO预计，从2022年到2030年，年均赤字为1.2万亿美元。这与目前公共开支持续增加的趋势是一致的，但最令人鼓舞的是，这项开支将会发生在何处：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8330575726862d333c1cfabc18987a50\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"626\">Source:CBO.gov<blockquote>资料来源：CBO.gov</blockquote> By 2030, the biggest item on the Federal government's expense sheet will be Major Health Care Programs, which will be equivalent to 9% of GDP. Data from the NHE also suggest that by 2028 healthcare will be a&nbsp;$6.2 trillion business.Again, this is great news for Palantir, since data analytics within the healthcare industry is a high growth area. Palantir already has clients in this area, including the&nbsp;UK's National Health System[NHS].<blockquote>到2030年，联邦政府开支单上最大的项目将是主要的医疗保健项目，这将相当于GDP的9%。NHE的数据还表明，到2028年，医疗保健业务将达到6.2万亿美元。同样，这对Palantir来说是个好消息，因为医疗保健行业的数据分析是一个高增长领域。Palantir已经在该领域拥有客户，包括英国国家卫生系统[NHS]。</blockquote> All in all, Palantir has the benefit of working within a fast-growing sector, data, but with the ability of being able to deploy their technology and workforce to solve niche applications. Given that the data analytics industry is projected to grow at 25% and that Palantir has strong government connections, we believe the company could easily achieve analysts' goal of 30% CAGR over the next 5 years.<blockquote>总而言之，Palantir的优势在于在快速增长的数据领域工作，但也有能力部署他们的技术和劳动力来解决利基应用。鉴于数据分析行业预计将增长25%，并且Palantir拥有强大的政府关系，我们相信该公司可以轻松实现分析师未来5年复合年增长率30%的目标。</blockquote> Profitability Analysis<blockquote>盈利能力分析</blockquote> Profitability is expected to grow as revenues reach higher levels. The question that any investor would like answered is not only if this is going to be the case, but by how much. Our aim here is to make a forecast of Palantir revenues and earnings until 2030 so that we can later make a sound valuation of the stock through earnings multiples. The method used here is a combination of trendline analysis of existing financials, performances by most comparable competitors, and estimates by analysts and the company itself.<blockquote>随着收入达到更高水平，盈利能力预计将增长。任何投资者想要回答的问题不仅是这种情况是否会发生，而且会发生多少。我们的目标是预测Palantir到2030年的收入和收益，以便我们以后可以通过市盈率对该股票进行合理的估值。这里使用的方法是对现有财务状况的趋势线分析、大多数可比竞争对手的表现以及分析师和公司本身的估计的结合。</blockquote> We have already talked about the addressable market and growth prospects, now it is time to quantify the expected revenue path for Palantir. Since companies rarely sustain such high growth rates in the long run, we find that a second order polynomial trendline is often the best method to calculate this. This type of equation delivers a flatter curve than an exponential trendline, which assumes a constant growth rate. For Palantir's quarterly revenue, it is also a very good fit as you can see below. You can see the trendline along the actual revenue recorded in the last nine quarters, and a projection until 2030 Q4.<blockquote>我们已经讨论了潜在市场和增长前景，现在是时候量化Palantir的预期收入路径了。由于公司很少长期保持如此高的增长率，我们发现二阶多项式趋势线通常是计算这一点的最佳方法。这种类型的方程提供了比指数趋势线更平坦的曲线，指数趋势线假设增长率恒定。对于Palantir的季度收入来说，它也非常适合，如下所示。您可以看到过去九个季度记录的实际收入的趋势线，以及到2030年第四季度的预测。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acada8ddc443d930e8cb4e3929b42015\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"341\">Source: Author's work based on financial records. Revenue in $million. Quarters are numbered from 1 (Q1 2019) to 48 (Q4 2030)<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务记录的工作。收入单位为百万美元。季度编号为1（2019年第一季度）至48（2030年第四季度）</blockquote> If you apply the function above you get a forecasted yearly revenue of 11.9 billion for 2030, including $3.1 billion in Q4 of that year. This is not far from the consensus estimate for 2030 you can find on Seeking Alpha, which is $12.42 billion. According to the latest earnings call, management expects to deliver 30%+ growth at least in the next four years. To put this into perspective, a CAGR of 30% until 2030 would give a revenue of $11.5 billion. Taking the three into account, we will keep our trendline estimate of 11.9, which lies between the other two figures.<blockquote>如果你应用上面的函数，你会得到2030年的预测年收入为119亿美元，其中包括当年第四季度的31亿美元。这与Seeking Alpha上对2030年的共识估计（124.2亿美元）相差不远。根据最新的收益看涨期权，管理层预计至少在未来四年内实现30%以上的增长。从这个角度来看，到2030年，30%的复合年增长率将带来115亿美元的收入。考虑到这三者，我们将保持趋势线估计值11.9，该值位于其他两个数字之间。</blockquote> Gross margins have been improving gradually according to GAAP figures over the last nine quarters, from nearly 68% in the first quarter of 2019 to over 78% in the latest quarter. Except for an unusually bad figure in Q3 2020, which has been taken out of the equation for a smoother analysis, the gross margin as a function of revenue shows a predictable path of improvement through a linear trend, as you can see in this chart.<blockquote>根据GAAP数据，过去九个季度的毛利率一直在逐步提高，从2019年第一季度的近68%提高到最近一个季度的78%以上。除了2020年第三季度异常糟糕的数据（为了更顺利的分析，该数据已从等式中删除）外，毛利率作为收入的函数通过线性趋势显示了可预测的改善路径，如您在此图表中看到的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9094dcdd5ddbc9df1499318bf694ad7a\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\">Source: Author's work based on financial records. Items in $million<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务记录的工作。项目（百万美元）</blockquote> Data excludes a figure of (289,140) from Q3 2020.<blockquote>数据不包括2020年第三季度的数字（289,140）。</blockquote> The linear equation above, with a 0.9 slope, generates a forecast where the gross margin should tend towards 90% of revenue. Applying this formula to the forecasted revenue of $11.9 billion predicts a gross margin figure of $10.6 billion for 2030.<blockquote>上面的线性方程斜率为0.9，预测毛利率应趋向于收入的90%。将此公式应用于119亿美元的预测收入，预计2030年的毛利率为106亿美元。</blockquote> In order to transform gross margins into net income, so that we can make a valuation based on an earnings multiple, we will look at one of Palantir's comparables, discussed&nbsp;in a previous article, Cognizant (NASDAQ:CTSH). The reason for using Cognizant is that not only is the activity they carry out similar but it is also an example of a profitable pier with a fairly consistent earnings margin, and with debt and gross margin volumes comparable to the ones we are predicting for Palantir.<blockquote>为了将毛利率转化为净利润，以便我们可以根据市盈率进行估值，我们将研究Palantir的可比公司之一，如上一篇文章中所讨论的，Cognizant（纳斯达克股票代码：CTSH）。使用Cognizant的原因是，他们开展的活动不仅相似，而且它也是一个盈利码头的例子，利润率相当稳定，债务和毛利率与我们对Palantir的预测相当。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7effd28b7de277b78a107d14608164ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\">Source: Author's work.<blockquote>来源：作者作品。</blockquote> With gross margins stable at around 6 billion in recent years, CTSH has maintained a healthy level of net income, ranging from 22% to 35% of gross profits. To make a fair estimate, we will assume the average percentage through the 10-year period, which is 30.61% of gross profit. We will also assume that Palantir achieves that level in 2030, with a gradual increase of the percentage until then.<blockquote>近年来毛利率稳定在60亿左右，CTSH净利润保持在健康水平，占毛利润的22%至35%不等。为了做出公平的估计，我们将假设10年期间的平均百分比，即毛利的30.61%。我们还假设Palantir将在2030年达到这一水平，并在此之前逐步增加百分比。</blockquote> This completes our revenue and earnings estimates for Palantir in 2030, reaching 11.9 billion revenue, $10.6 billion gross margin, and $3.3 billion net income.<blockquote>这完成了我们对Palantir 2030年收入和盈利的预测，收入达到119亿美元，毛利率达到106亿美元，净利润达到33亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Year<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2021<blockquote><td>2021</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022<blockquote><td>2022</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023<blockquote><td>2023</td></blockquote></td> <td>2024<blockquote><td>2024</td></blockquote></td> <td>2025<blockquote><td>2025</td></blockquote></td> <td>2026<blockquote><td>2026</td></blockquote></td> <td>2027<blockquote><td>2027</td></blockquote></td> <td>2028<blockquote><td>2028</td></blockquote></td> <td>2029<blockquote><td>2029</td></blockquote></td> <td>2030<blockquote><td>2030</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Reven.<blockquote><tr><td>雷文。</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,581<blockquote><td>1,581</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,196<blockquote><td>2,196</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,942<blockquote><td>2,942</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,820<blockquote><td>3,820</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,830<blockquote><td>4,830</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,972<blockquote><td>5,972</td></blockquote></td> <td>7,245<blockquote><td>7,245</td></blockquote></td> <td>8,650<blockquote><td>8,650</td></blockquote></td> <td>10,188<blockquote><td>10,188</td></blockquote></td> <td>11,856<blockquote><td>11,856</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gross Profit<blockquote><tr><td>毛利</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,382<blockquote><td>1,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>1,936<blockquote><td>1,936</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,608<blockquote><td>2,608</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,399<blockquote><td>3,399</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,309<blockquote><td>4,309</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,338<blockquote><td>5,338</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,485<blockquote><td>6,485</td></blockquote></td> <td>7,751<blockquote><td>7,751</td></blockquote></td> <td>9,136<blockquote><td>9,136</td></blockquote></td> <td>10,639<blockquote><td>10,639</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Net Income<blockquote><tr><td>净收入</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42<blockquote><td>42</td></blockquote></td> <td>119<blockquote><td>119</td></blockquote></td> <td>240<blockquote><td>240</td></blockquote></td> <td>416<blockquote><td>416</td></blockquote></td> <td>660<blockquote><td>660</td></blockquote></td> <td>980<blockquote><td>980</td></blockquote></td> <td>1,390<blockquote><td>1,390</td></blockquote></td> <td>1,898<blockquote><td>1,898</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,517<blockquote><td>2,517</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,257<blockquote><td>3,257</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Author's work. Items in $millions.<blockquote>来源：作者作品。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> Having forecasted revenues and earnings, we are prepared to estimate a path for Palantir's stock price. In order to do this, we need to also look into financing through equity and how the dilution will affect share prices. We are going to continue using the 2030 horizon as the timeframe.<blockquote>预测收入和盈利后，我们准备估计Palantir股价的走势。为了做到这一点，我们还需要研究通过股权融资以及稀释将如何影响股价。我们将继续使用2030年作为时间框架。</blockquote> First, we will create an estimate for market capitalization based on the current sector median earnings multiple, and then we will make a forecast for the dilution. The current GAAP TTM Price/earnings ratio for the sector is 33.94. The assumption here is that as Palantir becomes profitable, its valuation should approach this multiple and be fairly valued for its earnings. Based on the earnings we forecasted and the 33.94 PE ratio, we get the following estimated market capitalizations:<blockquote>首先，我们将根据当前行业市盈率中位数对市值进行估计，然后对稀释进行预测。该行业目前的GAAP TTM市盈率为33.94。这里的假设是，随着Palantir实现盈利，其估值应接近该倍数，并且其盈利估值合理。根据我们预测的盈利和33.94的市盈率，我们得到以下估计市值：</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Year<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2021<blockquote><td>2021</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022<blockquote><td>2022</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023<blockquote><td>2023</td></blockquote></td> <td>2024<blockquote><td>2024</td></blockquote></td> <td>2025<blockquote><td>2025</td></blockquote></td> <td>2026<blockquote><td>2026</td></blockquote></td> <td>2027<blockquote><td>2027</td></blockquote></td> <td>2028<blockquote><td>2028</td></blockquote></td> <td>2029<blockquote><td>2029</td></blockquote></td> <td>2030<blockquote><td>2030</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Net Inc.<blockquote><tr><td>网络公司。</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42<blockquote><td>42</td></blockquote></td> <td>119<blockquote><td>119</td></blockquote></td> <td>240<blockquote><td>240</td></blockquote></td> <td>416<blockquote><td>416</td></blockquote></td> <td>660<blockquote><td>660</td></blockquote></td> <td>980<blockquote><td>980</td></blockquote></td> <td>1,390<blockquote><td>1,390</td></blockquote></td> <td>1,898<blockquote><td>1,898</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,517<blockquote><td>2,517</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,257<blockquote><td>3,257</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mkt. Cap [PE]<blockquote><tr><td>市场。帽[PE]</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,436<blockquote><td>1,436</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,023<blockquote><td>4,023</td></blockquote></td> <td>8,129<blockquote><td>8,129</td></blockquote></td> <td>14,126<blockquote><td>14,126</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,384<blockquote><td>22,384</td></blockquote></td> <td>33,272<blockquote><td>33,272</td></blockquote></td> <td>47,160<blockquote><td>47,160</td></blockquote></td> <td>64,420<blockquote><td>64,420</td></blockquote></td> <td>85,421<blockquote><td>85,421</td></blockquote></td> <td>110,532<blockquote><td>110,532</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Author's work. Items in $millions.<blockquote>来源：作者作品。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> As you can see, the current market capitalization of slightly over $50 billion wouldn't be justified by earnings until after 2027, reaching a level of $111 billion by 2030. This represents a CAGR of just 8.57%, before we take dilution into account.<blockquote>正如您所看到的，目前略高于500亿美元的市值要到2027年之后才能被盈利证明是合理的，到2030年将达到1110亿美元的水平。在我们考虑稀释之前，这意味着复合年增长率仅为8.57%。</blockquote> In order to predict how the number of common shares is likely to evolve over these years, we have made a forecast of the book value based on revenue, assuming the balance sheet maintains a similar structure relative to the volume of operations. If we look at the last four quarters, we have a fairly consistent linear pattern of how book value has increased with quarterly revenue, as you can see below.<blockquote>为了预测这些年普通股数量可能如何演变，我们根据收入对账面价值进行了预测，假设资产负债表相对于业务量保持类似的结构。如果我们看看过去四个季度，我们会发现账面价值随季度收入增长的线性模式相当一致，如下所示。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9066505bd8b5fce4ebf0d4f538a4bafe\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\">Source: Author's work based on financial records. Items in $million<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务记录的工作。项目（百万美元）</blockquote> Applying this equation, with a revenue of $3.1 billion in Q4 2030, as per our previous forecast, the book value should rise to $34.2 billion. If we take into account the current book value of 1.8 billion and the accumulated net income we have already forecasted for the whole period, which is $11.5 billion, we estimate that an additional $20.9 billion of funding through new equity will be required. At the current share price of $27.37, this would mean 739 million additional common shares by the end of 2030. Added to the current 1.8 billion outstanding, the total is 2.6 billion common shares. Applying the $111 billion market capitalization we have forecasted, the resulting target price for the end of 2030 is $41.87. You can see a summary of these figures below.<blockquote>应用这个等式，根据我们之前的预测，2030年第四季度的收入为31亿美元，账面价值应升至342亿美元。如果我们考虑到当前18亿美元的账面价值以及我们已经预测的整个期间的累计净利润115亿美元，我们估计将需要通过新股权额外筹集209亿美元的资金。按照目前27.37美元的股价计算，这意味着到2030年底将增加7.39亿股普通股。加上目前已发行的18亿股，普通股总数为26亿股。应用我们预测的1110亿美元市值，2030年底的目标价为41.87美元。您可以在下面看到这些数字的摘要。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Concept<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>概念</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>Amount<blockquote><td>数量</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Revenue Q4 2030<blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度收入</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>3,128<blockquote><td>3,128</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Book Value Q4 2030<blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度账面价值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34,212<blockquote><td>34,212</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Book Value Q1 2021<blockquote><tr><td>2021年第一季度账面价值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,806<blockquote><td>1,806</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Acc. Net Income Q2 2021-Q4 2030<blockquote><tr><td>Acc.2021年第二季度-2030年第四季度净利润</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>11,517<blockquote><td>11,517</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Financing from new equity<blockquote><tr><td>新增股权融资</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>20,889<blockquote><td>20,889</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Current Share Price<blockquote><tr><td>当前股价</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>$ 27.37<blockquote><td>$27.37</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>New shares required<blockquote><tr><td>所需新股</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>763<blockquote><td>763</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Market cap 2030 Q4<blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度市值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>110,532<blockquote><td>110,532</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nº Shares 2030 Q4 (millions)<blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度股数（百万）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2,640<blockquote><td>2,640</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Target Price 2030 Q4<blockquote><tr><td>2030年第四季度目标价</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>$ 41.87<blockquote><td>$41.87</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>CAGR<blockquote><tr><td>CAGR</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>4.58%<blockquote><td>4.58%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Author's work. Monetary items in $millions, except per share items, nº of shares in millions.<blockquote>来源：作者作品。货币项目以百万美元为单位，每股项目除外，股份数量以百万为单位。</blockquote> As you can see, the expected CAGR for Palantir's stock price as per our forecasted fair value at the end of 2030 is just 4.58%. If we were to require, say, a 10% return, which is more reasonable for a growth stock, the fair price today would be $16.93, 38% lower than the current price.<blockquote>如您所见，根据我们预测的2030年底公允价值，Palantir股价的预期复合年增长率仅为4.58%。如果我们要求10%的回报率（这对于成长型股票来说更合理），那么今天的公平价格将是16.93美元，比当前价格低38%。</blockquote> Risks<blockquote>风险</blockquote> Having said all this, we also have to mention some particular challenges that a company like Palantir faces. The most significant of these would relate to how the company has to manage its image in a world where privacy is becoming \"taboo\".<blockquote>说了这么多，我们还必须提到像Palantir这样的公司面临的一些特殊挑战。其中最重要的是，在一个隐私正成为“禁忌”的世界里，该公司必须如何管理自己的形象。</blockquote> Palantir is a company that, on many levels, has a lot of power, which can be both a blessing and a curse. The company has to be very careful with its data to avoid any events that could damage its reputation, which it needs in order to survive. Think, for example, Edward Snowden, who before becoming one of the most wanted men in the world was working for Booz Allen. What would happen if the next whistleblower came from within Palantir's ranks?<blockquote>Palantir是一家在很多层面上都拥有巨大权力的公司，这既可能是福也可能是祸。该公司必须非常小心地处理其数据，以避免任何可能损害其声誉的事件，而这是其生存所必需的。以爱德华·斯诺登为例，他在成为世界头号通缉犯之一之前曾在博思艾伦工作。如果下一个举报人来自Palantir内部会发生什么？</blockquote> On top of that, Palantir is also facing resistance from organizations abroad. For example, there is currently a campaign in the UK trying to stop Palantir fromworking with the NHS. It's understandable that some people may not want their medical data to be handled by a foreign company, even if it is from an allied country.<blockquote>除此之外，Palantir还面临着来自海外组织的阻力。例如，目前英国有一场运动试图阻止Palantir与NHS合作。可以理解的是，有些人可能不希望他们的医疗数据由外国公司处理，即使它来自盟国。</blockquote> Ultimately, these are very particular challenges that Palantir faces. Its growth could be hampered if people or even the government start to think the company is \"too powerful\". Furthermore, if anything happened to damage the company's reputation, Palantir could be finished overnight. Of course, this is why the company invests so heavily in its workforce. But will it be enough?<blockquote>最终，这些都是Palantir面临的非常特殊的挑战。如果人们甚至政府开始认为该公司“过于强大”，其增长可能会受到阻碍。此外，如果发生任何损害公司声誉的事情，Palantir可能会在一夜之间被终结。当然，这也是公司在员工方面投入如此之多的原因。但这就够了吗？</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, we believe Palantir is qualitatively a great company. They operate in a niche market with a lot of growth potential. On top of that, Palantir has one of the best technologies and workforces in the market right now, but this is not enough. Even with double-digit growth and assuming a steady path towards profitability, Palantir seems way too expensive today to provide investors with good returns. A great company doesn't always make a great investment, and we feel this is the case with Palantir.<blockquote>总之，我们相信Palantir在质量上是一家伟大的公司。他们在一个具有巨大增长潜力的利基市场运营。最重要的是，Palantir拥有目前市场上最好的技术和劳动力之一，但这还不够。即使Palantir实现了两位数的增长并稳步实现盈利，但如今的Palantir似乎过于昂贵，无法为投资者提供良好的回报。一家伟大的公司并不总是做出伟大的投资，我们认为Palantir就是这种情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437458-palantir-great-company-bad-investment\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437458-palantir-great-company-bad-investment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115821085","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir holds a unique place in the market and has a significant moat around this business.\nHaving said this, even under optimistic assumptions, Palantir looks overvalued.\nFurthermore, Palantir faces a unique and hard to control set of challenges.\n\nMaria Marganingsih/iStock via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nPalantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is, by many accounts, an outstanding company. We believe that Palantir occupies a niche spot in the market, and has built a moat around its business thanks to its technology and workforce.\nWe have derived a valuation for Palantir using trend analysis and comparables, with a 2030 horizon, where we tackle mainly profitability and equity dilution. Although our target price for that year is nearly $42 per share, this only represents a 4.6% annual growth rate from the current price.\nUltimately, though Palantir is a great business, the current price does not offer investors attractive returns.\nWhat makes Palantir special?\nPalantir seems to be one of the most popular stocks to talk about in the last few months. The company, which has been around since 2003, but IPO'd only eight and a half months ago, is followed closely by both hawkish bears and delighted bulls. But why? What exactly makes Palantir so special?\nThe bears would point out nothing, and while I do agree that, oftentimes, unwarranted hype is created around buzzwords like \"data\", I will argue here that Palantir is special. This is important because it puts Palantir in a great situation in terms of the competitive landscape and growth opportunities. However, it also creates a very particular set of \"risks\" and challenges for the company.\nOn the most superficial level, Palantir is a \"data analytics company\", which has found itself a nice spot on the list of government contractors, both domestic and abroad. This already makes the company more interesting than many others. There is nothing today growing faster than data, and at close second we could put government spending. However, this misses the point of what actually makes the company special, or, more specifically, what has allowed the company to gain so much favour with public institutions, and now private clients.\nIf we could put it into one sentence, we would say the following: Palantir walks a fine line between data analytics and consulting. Indeed, the company has some very powerful proprietary software, which we might as well call an AI, but it also has one of the most talented workforces in the world, with specific task forces being created to address the needs of each client/contract.\nThink about it like a mix between McKinsey and International Business Machines (IBM). In practice, it's not enough to have a powerful computer that can find great insights. First, it has to be led in the right direction, and then those insights have to be implemented properly. And of course, once you implement new measures, these create a whole new set of variables and data, so you can rinse and repeat indefinitely.\nThis is what a lot of people miss about this company. Some think it just has great software, which it does, but its biggest asset, we would argue, is its \"business model\" which is powered by its workforce. Furthermore, many of those who do acknowledge the fact that Palantir relies heavily on using specialized employees to address their clients' needs point this out as a weakness rather than the great strength that it is. They would argue that Palantir has to spend a lot of money on employing people to help their clients use their product, which makes it less \"profitable\", but this is a very rudimentary understanding of the situation. It's true that it might not achieve such high margins as a traditional SaaS, but it definitely doesn't mean the company is unprofitable. Consulting firms, like McKinsey or Accenture plc (ACN), do just this, employ people to help out their clients, and they certainly don't seem to struggle to make a profit. Ultimately, a cost is justified as long as it brings sufficient value.\nDoes Palantir have a \"moat\"?\nBut even if Palantir is special; does this matter? How does this set it apart from its competitors? In this regard, Palantir faces three different sets of competitors:\nFirstly, Palantir is competing with traditional consulting firms. Ultimately, this is what the company does, since it is working hand-in-hand with its clients to improve their operations. Consulting firms like Accenture and McKinsey do this to a certain degree, but at the moment, they lack the technical requirements and niche focus that Palantir has.\nFrom a data analytics sector perspective, Palantir could be put into the same category as companies like IBM or SAP SE (SAP). These companies do indeed have the necessary resources to compete with Palantir in terms of services, but not on price. These companies have been around for too long and are way too big to be able to compete in price with Palantir. They simply cannot scale down efficiently enough.\nLastly, the company competes head-to-head with other defence contractors such as Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH) and SAIC. The problem these firms have competing with Palantir is that they are not specialized enough within their offerings.\nTo sum up, we would argue that Palantir's moat comes, firstly, from its business proposition. Palantir was created with a very clear idea behind it, which allowed it to be a niche company. This specialization also allows it to be more efficient, and offer clients more competitive prices.\nIt is true that this business model can be copied. There is nothing stopping new companies from doing what Palantir is doing and there are some startups attempting to do this, such as Digital Reasoning, but bear in mind this company has only ever received $134 million in funding. What does set Palantir apart from its competitors and is something that they can't easily replicate is its workforce. Palantir spends a lot of money to find and keep the best talent in the industry. A big part of this is done through stock-based compensation, which is a hot topic I discussed here. In any case, Palantir has the advantage of being \"the place to be\" right now, within the industry. This popularity and recognition has increased even more since its IPO and is a key factor in attracting and retaining young talent. This talent is, ultimately, the company's biggest strength.\nAddressable Market & Growth Opportunities\nWith that said, let's proceed towards analysing Palantir's TAM and Growth outlook.\nIn the sections above, we mentioned how Palantir is in a unique situation, because it is both a consulting firm and a data analytics firm, and it also has significant government contracts. Therefore, we could look at TAM from these three perspectives:\nStarting with consulting, this is perhaps the least exciting of the three areas where Palantir can grow. According to research, the \"Management Consulting Services\" industry will grow at a CAGR of 8% through 2025, which would put the industry at a size of $1201.06 billion. Granted, this is not impressive growth but it is a remarkable size. In this sense, Palantir could actually attack much of this market, which is now dominated by \"the big four\".\nFrom the point of view of data analytics, we have a market that, in this case, is growing very fast. According to Quince Market Insights, this segment will grow at a CAGR of 25% in the next 10 years. Furthermore, studies have also found that, currently, companies only analyze around 12% of their data.This creates a massive opportunity for a company like Palantir to come in, and show these companies exactly how and why they need to analyze their data.\nLastly, since Palantir works closely with the government, it is only reasonable to believe that the more it spends, the more Palantir will make.The CBO projects average yearly deficits of $1.2 trillion from 2022 to 2030. This is in line with the current tendency of continued increase in public spending, but what is most encouraging is where this spending will take place:\nSource:CBO.gov\nBy 2030, the biggest item on the Federal government's expense sheet will be Major Health Care Programs, which will be equivalent to 9% of GDP. Data from the NHE also suggest that by 2028 healthcare will be a $6.2 trillion business.Again, this is great news for Palantir, since data analytics within the healthcare industry is a high growth area. Palantir already has clients in this area, including the UK's National Health System[NHS].\nAll in all, Palantir has the benefit of working within a fast-growing sector, data, but with the ability of being able to deploy their technology and workforce to solve niche applications. Given that the data analytics industry is projected to grow at 25% and that Palantir has strong government connections, we believe the company could easily achieve analysts' goal of 30% CAGR over the next 5 years.\nProfitability Analysis\nProfitability is expected to grow as revenues reach higher levels. The question that any investor would like answered is not only if this is going to be the case, but by how much. Our aim here is to make a forecast of Palantir revenues and earnings until 2030 so that we can later make a sound valuation of the stock through earnings multiples. The method used here is a combination of trendline analysis of existing financials, performances by most comparable competitors, and estimates by analysts and the company itself.\nWe have already talked about the addressable market and growth prospects, now it is time to quantify the expected revenue path for Palantir. Since companies rarely sustain such high growth rates in the long run, we find that a second order polynomial trendline is often the best method to calculate this. This type of equation delivers a flatter curve than an exponential trendline, which assumes a constant growth rate. For Palantir's quarterly revenue, it is also a very good fit as you can see below. You can see the trendline along the actual revenue recorded in the last nine quarters, and a projection until 2030 Q4.\nSource: Author's work based on financial records. Revenue in $million. Quarters are numbered from 1 (Q1 2019) to 48 (Q4 2030)\nIf you apply the function above you get a forecasted yearly revenue of 11.9 billion for 2030, including $3.1 billion in Q4 of that year. This is not far from the consensus estimate for 2030 you can find on Seeking Alpha, which is $12.42 billion. According to the latest earnings call, management expects to deliver 30%+ growth at least in the next four years. To put this into perspective, a CAGR of 30% until 2030 would give a revenue of $11.5 billion. Taking the three into account, we will keep our trendline estimate of 11.9, which lies between the other two figures.\nGross margins have been improving gradually according to GAAP figures over the last nine quarters, from nearly 68% in the first quarter of 2019 to over 78% in the latest quarter. Except for an unusually bad figure in Q3 2020, which has been taken out of the equation for a smoother analysis, the gross margin as a function of revenue shows a predictable path of improvement through a linear trend, as you can see in this chart.\nSource: Author's work based on financial records. Items in $million\nData excludes a figure of (289,140) from Q3 2020.\nThe linear equation above, with a 0.9 slope, generates a forecast where the gross margin should tend towards 90% of revenue. Applying this formula to the forecasted revenue of $11.9 billion predicts a gross margin figure of $10.6 billion for 2030.\nIn order to transform gross margins into net income, so that we can make a valuation based on an earnings multiple, we will look at one of Palantir's comparables, discussed in a previous article, Cognizant (NASDAQ:CTSH). The reason for using Cognizant is that not only is the activity they carry out similar but it is also an example of a profitable pier with a fairly consistent earnings margin, and with debt and gross margin volumes comparable to the ones we are predicting for Palantir.\nSource: Author's work.\nWith gross margins stable at around 6 billion in recent years, CTSH has maintained a healthy level of net income, ranging from 22% to 35% of gross profits. To make a fair estimate, we will assume the average percentage through the 10-year period, which is 30.61% of gross profit. We will also assume that Palantir achieves that level in 2030, with a gradual increase of the percentage until then.\nThis completes our revenue and earnings estimates for Palantir in 2030, reaching 11.9 billion revenue, $10.6 billion gross margin, and $3.3 billion net income.\n\n\n\nYear\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n2027\n2028\n2029\n2030\n\n\nReven.\n1,581\n2,196\n2,942\n3,820\n4,830\n5,972\n7,245\n8,650\n10,188\n11,856\n\n\nGross Profit\n1,382\n1,936\n2,608\n3,399\n4,309\n5,338\n6,485\n7,751\n9,136\n10,639\n\n\nNet Income\n42\n119\n240\n416\n660\n980\n1,390\n1,898\n2,517\n3,257\n\n\n\nSource: Author's work. Items in $millions.\nValuation\nHaving forecasted revenues and earnings, we are prepared to estimate a path for Palantir's stock price. In order to do this, we need to also look into financing through equity and how the dilution will affect share prices. We are going to continue using the 2030 horizon as the timeframe.\nFirst, we will create an estimate for market capitalization based on the current sector median earnings multiple, and then we will make a forecast for the dilution. The current GAAP TTM Price/earnings ratio for the sector is 33.94. The assumption here is that as Palantir becomes profitable, its valuation should approach this multiple and be fairly valued for its earnings. Based on the earnings we forecasted and the 33.94 PE ratio, we get the following estimated market capitalizations:\n\n\n\nYear\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n2027\n2028\n2029\n2030\n\n\nNet Inc.\n42\n119\n240\n416\n660\n980\n1,390\n1,898\n2,517\n3,257\n\n\nMkt. Cap [PE]\n1,436\n4,023\n8,129\n14,126\n22,384\n33,272\n47,160\n64,420\n85,421\n110,532\n\n\n\nSource: Author's work. Items in $millions.\nAs you can see, the current market capitalization of slightly over $50 billion wouldn't be justified by earnings until after 2027, reaching a level of $111 billion by 2030. This represents a CAGR of just 8.57%, before we take dilution into account.\nIn order to predict how the number of common shares is likely to evolve over these years, we have made a forecast of the book value based on revenue, assuming the balance sheet maintains a similar structure relative to the volume of operations. If we look at the last four quarters, we have a fairly consistent linear pattern of how book value has increased with quarterly revenue, as you can see below.\nSource: Author's work based on financial records. Items in $million\nApplying this equation, with a revenue of $3.1 billion in Q4 2030, as per our previous forecast, the book value should rise to $34.2 billion. If we take into account the current book value of 1.8 billion and the accumulated net income we have already forecasted for the whole period, which is $11.5 billion, we estimate that an additional $20.9 billion of funding through new equity will be required. At the current share price of $27.37, this would mean 739 million additional common shares by the end of 2030. Added to the current 1.8 billion outstanding, the total is 2.6 billion common shares. Applying the $111 billion market capitalization we have forecasted, the resulting target price for the end of 2030 is $41.87. You can see a summary of these figures below.\n\n\n\nConcept\nAmount\n\n\nRevenue Q4 2030\n3,128\n\n\nBook Value Q4 2030\n34,212\n\n\nBook Value Q1 2021\n1,806\n\n\nAcc. Net Income Q2 2021-Q4 2030\n11,517\n\n\nFinancing from new equity\n20,889\n\n\nCurrent Share Price\n$ 27.37\n\n\nNew shares required\n763\n\n\nMarket cap 2030 Q4\n110,532\n\n\nNº Shares 2030 Q4 (millions)\n2,640\n\n\nTarget Price 2030 Q4\n$ 41.87\n\n\nCAGR\n4.58%\n\n\n\nSource: Author's work. Monetary items in $millions, except per share items, nº of shares in millions.\nAs you can see, the expected CAGR for Palantir's stock price as per our forecasted fair value at the end of 2030 is just 4.58%. If we were to require, say, a 10% return, which is more reasonable for a growth stock, the fair price today would be $16.93, 38% lower than the current price.\nRisks\nHaving said all this, we also have to mention some particular challenges that a company like Palantir faces. The most significant of these would relate to how the company has to manage its image in a world where privacy is becoming \"taboo\".\nPalantir is a company that, on many levels, has a lot of power, which can be both a blessing and a curse. The company has to be very careful with its data to avoid any events that could damage its reputation, which it needs in order to survive. Think, for example, Edward Snowden, who before becoming one of the most wanted men in the world was working for Booz Allen. What would happen if the next whistleblower came from within Palantir's ranks?\nOn top of that, Palantir is also facing resistance from organizations abroad. For example, there is currently a campaign in the UK trying to stop Palantir fromworking with the NHS. It's understandable that some people may not want their medical data to be handled by a foreign company, even if it is from an allied country.\nUltimately, these are very particular challenges that Palantir faces. Its growth could be hampered if people or even the government start to think the company is \"too powerful\". Furthermore, if anything happened to damage the company's reputation, Palantir could be finished overnight. Of course, this is why the company invests so heavily in its workforce. But will it be enough?\nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, we believe Palantir is qualitatively a great company. They operate in a niche market with a lot of growth potential. On top of that, Palantir has one of the best technologies and workforces in the market right now, but this is not enough. Even with double-digit growth and assuming a steady path towards profitability, Palantir seems way too expensive today to provide investors with good returns. A great company doesn't always make a great investment, and we feel this is the case with Palantir.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1083,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":61,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/156635354"}