Does anyone here think Fed wil_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-07-02

Does anyone here think Fed will raise rates sooner than late 2022?

Fed Likely Needs to Raise Rates as Soon as Late 2022, IMF Says<blockquote>国际货币基金组织表示，美联储可能需要最早在 2022 年底加息</blockquote>

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Officials penciled in two rate hikes for 2023 and seven of the 18 policy makers want to raise rates in 2022, up from four in March.<blockquote>美联储在 6 月 15 日至 16 日的会议上将利率维持在接近于零的水平，并表示可能会将利率维持到明年，以帮助美国经济从 Covid-19 中复苏。官员们预计 2023 年将加息两次，18 位政策制定者中有 7 位希望在 2022 年加息，高于 3 月份的 4 位。</blockquote> Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that recent steep increases in inflation will prove to be largely transitory due to bottlenecks and that expectations on the whole are where the Fed wants them.<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，由于瓶颈，最近通胀的急剧上升将被证明在很大程度上是暂时的，总体而言，预期是美联储想要的。</blockquote> Inflation Forecasts<blockquote>通货膨胀预测</blockquote> The personal consumption expenditures price gauge that the Fed uses for its inflation target rose 3.9% in May from a year earlier, the most since 2008. The IMF forecasts the increase to be transitory, with the index peaking at 4.3% and dropping to around 2.5% by the end of 2022. That’s still above the Fed’s long-run average target of 2%.<blockquote>美联储用于实现通胀目标的个人消费支出价格指标 5 月份同比上涨 3.9%，为 2008 年以来最高。国际货币基金组织预测，这一增长将是暂时的，该指数将达到4.3%的峰值，到2022年底将降至2.5%左右。这仍高于美联储2%的长期平均目标。</blockquote> At its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee marked up all its inflation forecasts through the end of 2023, with officials seeing personal consumption expenditures -- their preferred measure of price pressures -- rising 3.4% in 2021 compared with a March projection of 2.4%. They increased the 2022 forecast to 2.1%, and 2.2% for the following year.<blockquote>在 6 月份的会议上，联邦公开市场委员会上调了截至 2023 年底的所有通胀预测，官员们预计个人消费支出（他们首选的衡量价格压力的指标）将在 2021 年增长 3.4%，而 3 月份的预测为 2.4%。他们将 2022 年的预测上调至 2.1%，第二年上调至 2.2%。</blockquote> Fund staff estimates that the higher U.S. spending proposed by President Joe Biden in the infrastructure-focused American Jobs Plan and the social-spending-based American Families Plan -- which have yet to pass -- would increase growth in gross domestic product by a cumulative value of about 5.25% from 2022 to 2024.<blockquote>基金组织工作人员估计，乔·拜登总统在尚未通过的以基础设施为重点的美国就业计划和以社会支出为基础的美国家庭计划中提出的增加美国支出，将使国内生产总值增长累计增长2022年至2024年约5.25%。</blockquote> The IMF raised its estimate for U.S. economic expansion this year to 7% -- the fastest pace since 1984 -- from a 6.4% forecast in April.<blockquote>国际货币基金组织将今年美国经济扩张预期从 4 月份的 6.4% 上调至 7%，这是自 1984 年以来的最快增速。</blockquote> Lawmakers have release a wave of pandemic-relief funds over the past 15 months to buoy the economy with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan passed in March, a $900 billion package approved in December and the $2 trillion Cares Act of March 2020.<blockquote>立法者在过去15个月中发布了一波疫情救助资金，以提振经济，3月份通过了1.9万亿美元的美国救援计划，12月份批准了9000亿美元的一揽子计划，以及2020年3月的2万亿美元关怀法案。</blockquote> “The unprecedented fiscal and monetary support, combined with the receding Covid-19 case numbers, should provide a substantial boost to activity in the coming months,” the IMF said. “Savings will be drawn down, demand will return for in-person services, and depleted inventories will be rebuilt.”<blockquote>“国际货币基金组织表示：”前所未有的财政和货币支持，加上 Covid-19 病例数量的下降，将极大地促进未来几个月的经济活动。“储蓄将会减少，对面对面服务的需求将会恢复，枯竭的库存将会重建”。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Likely Needs to Raise Rates as Soon as Late 2022, IMF Says<blockquote>国际货币基金组织表示，美联储可能需要最早在 2022 年底加息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-07-02 13:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve probably will need to begin raising interest rates in late 2022 or early 2023 as increased government spending keeps inflation above its long-run average target, according to the International Monetary Fund.<blockquote>（彭博社）——国际货币基金组织表示，由于政府支出的增加使通胀保持在长期平均目标之上，美联储可能需要在 2022 年底或 2023 年初开始加息。</blockquote> The U.S. central bank likely will begin to scale back asset purchases in the first half of 2022, staff from the Washington-based fund said in a statement Thursday following the conclusion of so-called article IV consultations, the IMF’s assessment of countries’ economic and financial developments following meetings with lawmakers and public officials.<blockquote>总部位于华盛顿的国际货币基金组织（IMF）的工作人员在周四结束所谓的第四条磋商后发表声明称，美国央行可能会在2022年上半年开始缩减资产购买规模。</blockquote> “Managing this transition -- from providing reassurance that monetary policy will continue to deliver powerful support to the economy to preparing for an eventual scaling back of asset purchases and a withdrawal of monetary accommodation -- will require deft communications under a potentially tight timeline,” IMF staff said in the concluding statement.<blockquote>“国际货币基金组织工作人员在总结声明中说：”管理这一过渡--从保证货币政策将继续为经济提供强有力的支持，到为最终缩减资产购买规模和退出货币宽松做好准备--将需要在可能紧张的时间表内进行灵活的沟通。</blockquote> The Fed held interest rates near zero at its June 15-16 meeting and signaled it would probably keep them there through next year to help the U.S. economy recover from Covid-19. Officials penciled in two rate hikes for 2023 and seven of the 18 policy makers want to raise rates in 2022, up from four in March.<blockquote>美联储在 6 月 15 日至 16 日的会议上将利率维持在接近于零的水平，并表示可能会将利率维持到明年，以帮助美国经济从 Covid-19 中复苏。官员们预计 2023 年将加息两次，18 位政策制定者中有 7 位希望在 2022 年加息，高于 3 月份的 4 位。</blockquote> Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that recent steep increases in inflation will prove to be largely transitory due to bottlenecks and that expectations on the whole are where the Fed wants them.<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，由于瓶颈，最近通胀的急剧上升将被证明在很大程度上是暂时的，总体而言，预期是美联储想要的。</blockquote> Inflation Forecasts<blockquote>通货膨胀预测</blockquote> The personal consumption expenditures price gauge that the Fed uses for its inflation target rose 3.9% in May from a year earlier, the most since 2008. The IMF forecasts the increase to be transitory, with the index peaking at 4.3% and dropping to around 2.5% by the end of 2022. That’s still above the Fed’s long-run average target of 2%.<blockquote>美联储用于实现通胀目标的个人消费支出价格指标 5 月份同比上涨 3.9%，为 2008 年以来最高。国际货币基金组织预测，这一增长将是暂时的，该指数将达到4.3%的峰值，到2022年底将降至2.5%左右。这仍高于美联储2%的长期平均目标。</blockquote> At its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee marked up all its inflation forecasts through the end of 2023, with officials seeing personal consumption expenditures -- their preferred measure of price pressures -- rising 3.4% in 2021 compared with a March projection of 2.4%. They increased the 2022 forecast to 2.1%, and 2.2% for the following year.<blockquote>在 6 月份的会议上，联邦公开市场委员会上调了截至 2023 年底的所有通胀预测，官员们预计个人消费支出（他们首选的衡量价格压力的指标）将在 2021 年增长 3.4%，而 3 月份的预测为 2.4%。他们将 2022 年的预测上调至 2.1%，第二年上调至 2.2%。</blockquote> Fund staff estimates that the higher U.S. spending proposed by President Joe Biden in the infrastructure-focused American Jobs Plan and the social-spending-based American Families Plan -- which have yet to pass -- would increase growth in gross domestic product by a cumulative value of about 5.25% from 2022 to 2024.<blockquote>基金组织工作人员估计，乔·拜登总统在尚未通过的以基础设施为重点的美国就业计划和以社会支出为基础的美国家庭计划中提出的增加美国支出，将使国内生产总值增长累计增长2022年至2024年约5.25%。</blockquote> The IMF raised its estimate for U.S. economic expansion this year to 7% -- the fastest pace since 1984 -- from a 6.4% forecast in April.<blockquote>国际货币基金组织将今年美国经济扩张预期从 4 月份的 6.4% 上调至 7%，这是自 1984 年以来的最快增速。</blockquote> Lawmakers have release a wave of pandemic-relief funds over the past 15 months to buoy the economy with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan passed in March, a $900 billion package approved in December and the $2 trillion Cares Act of March 2020.<blockquote>立法者在过去15个月中发布了一波疫情救助资金，以提振经济，3月份通过了1.9万亿美元的美国救援计划，12月份批准了9000亿美元的一揽子计划，以及2020年3月的2万亿美元关怀法案。</blockquote> “The unprecedented fiscal and monetary support, combined with the receding Covid-19 case numbers, should provide a substantial boost to activity in the coming months,” the IMF said. “Savings will be drawn down, demand will return for in-person services, and depleted inventories will be rebuilt.”<blockquote>“国际货币基金组织表示：”前所未有的财政和货币支持，加上 Covid-19 病例数量的下降，将极大地促进未来几个月的经济活动。“储蓄将会减少，对面对面服务的需求将会恢复，枯竭的库存将会重建”。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-likely-needs-raise-rates-200035658.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-likely-needs-raise-rates-200035658.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161499488","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve probably will need to begin raising interest rates in late 2022 or early 2023 as increased government spending keeps inflation above its long-run average target, according to the International Monetary Fund.\nThe U.S. central bank likely will begin to scale back asset purchases in the first half of 2022, staff from the Washington-based fund said in a statement Thursday following the conclusion of so-called article IV consultations, the IMF’s assessment of countries’ economic and financial developments following meetings with lawmakers and public officials.\n“Managing this transition -- from providing reassurance that monetary policy will continue to deliver powerful support to the economy to preparing for an eventual scaling back of asset purchases and a withdrawal of monetary accommodation -- will require deft communications under a potentially tight timeline,” IMF staff said in the concluding statement.\nThe Fed held interest rates near zero at its June 15-16 meeting and signaled it would probably keep them there through next year to help the U.S. economy recover from Covid-19. Officials penciled in two rate hikes for 2023 and seven of the 18 policy makers want to raise rates in 2022, up from four in March.\nFed Chair Jerome Powell has said that recent steep increases in inflation will prove to be largely transitory due to bottlenecks and that expectations on the whole are where the Fed wants them.\nInflation Forecasts\nThe personal consumption expenditures price gauge that the Fed uses for its inflation target rose 3.9% in May from a year earlier, the most since 2008. The IMF forecasts the increase to be transitory, with the index peaking at 4.3% and dropping to around 2.5% by the end of 2022. That’s still above the Fed’s long-run average target of 2%.\nAt its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee marked up all its inflation forecasts through the end of 2023, with officials seeing personal consumption expenditures -- their preferred measure of price pressures -- rising 3.4% in 2021 compared with a March projection of 2.4%. They increased the 2022 forecast to 2.1%, and 2.2% for the following year.\nFund staff estimates that the higher U.S. spending proposed by President Joe Biden in the infrastructure-focused American Jobs Plan and the social-spending-based American Families Plan -- which have yet to pass -- would increase growth in gross domestic product by a cumulative value of about 5.25% from 2022 to 2024.\nThe IMF raised its estimate for U.S. economic expansion this year to 7% -- the fastest pace since 1984 -- from a 6.4% forecast in April.\nLawmakers have release a wave of pandemic-relief funds over the past 15 months to buoy the economy with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan passed in March, a $900 billion package approved in December and the $2 trillion Cares Act of March 2020.\n“The unprecedented fiscal and monetary support, combined with the receding Covid-19 case numbers, should provide a substantial boost to activity in the coming months,” the IMF said. “Savings will be drawn down, demand will return for in-person services, and depleted inventories will be rebuilt.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1794,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":55,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/156159897"}