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2021-06-30

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Housing Prices Are Going Up. Must They Crash?<blockquote>房价在上涨。他们一定要坠毁吗？</blockquote>

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Must They Crash?<blockquote>房价在上涨。他们一定要坠毁吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187567340","media":"Barrons","summary":"There are many reports of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices hav","content":"There are&nbsp;many&nbsp;reports&nbsp;of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices have&nbsp;appreciated&nbsp;by well more than 10% over the past year. This naturally leads to a concern about market volatility: Must what goes up comedown? Are werepeatingthe excesses of the early 2000s, when housing prices surged before the market crashed?<blockquote>有许多报道称购房者陷入竞购战，许多城市的房价在过去一年中上涨了 10% 以上。这自然会引发对市场波动的担忧：上涨的东西一定会下跌吗？我们是否正在重蹈21世纪初房价在市场崩溃前飙升的过度行为？</blockquote> Some&nbsp;analysts&nbsp;argue that this time, it’s even less likely that prices will fall.Inventoriesof new homes for sale are very low, and lending standards are much tighter than in 2005. This is true. In fact, the ground is even firmer than it seems.<blockquote>一些分析师认为，这一次，房价下跌的可能性更小。待售新房库存非常低，贷款标准也比2005年严格得多。这是真的。事实上，地面比看起来还要坚实。</blockquote> New home inventories were very high before the Great Recession. Today, they are closer to the level that has been common for decades. The portion of&nbsp;inventory&nbsp;built and ready for move-in is especially low because of supply chain interruptions combined with a sudden boost of demand during the coronavirus pandemic. We shouldn’t worry much about a crash when buyers are eagerly snapping up the available homes.<blockquote>在大衰退之前，新房库存非常高。今天，它们更接近几十年来常见的水平。由于供应链中断加上冠状病毒大流行期间需求的突然增加，已建立并准备入住的库存部分特别低。当买家急于抢购现有房屋时，我们不应该太担心房屋崩盘。</blockquote> Yet there’s another reason to believe a housing crash is unlikely: Even the high level of inventory in 2005 wasn’t nearly as speculative as most people think. Understanding why will help us interpret today’s market.<blockquote>然而，还有另一个理由认为房地产崩盘的可能性不大： 即使是 2005 年的高库存水平，也远没有大多数人想象的那么具有投机性。了解原因将有助于我们解读当今的市场。</blockquote> In&nbsp;2005, homes were being built because sales were high, and sales were high in parts of the country where demand was strong. Builders were conservatively scaling their inventories with rising sales. The same is true today.<blockquote>2005年，房屋正在建造，因为销售很高，在该国需求旺盛的部分地区销售也很高。随着销售额的增长，建筑商保守地扩大库存规模。今天也是如此。</blockquote> Frequently, analysts&nbsp;cite&nbsp;the sharp rise in months of inventory—the number of months it will take to sell the current supply of homes being constructed for sale, at the current sales rate—as evidence of overzealous building during the last boom. But timing is key here. Decades of experience tell a clear story: Months of inventory is mostly a function of sales rather than builder speculation. When sales are strong, homes are turning over, and months of inventory tend to stay low. When sales quickly decline, builders tend to be left with unexpectedly high inventory.<blockquote>分析师经常引用库存月数的急剧上升——按目前的销售速度出售当前待售房屋供应量所需的月数——作为上次繁荣期间过度热情建筑的证据。但是时机是关键。几十年的经验告诉我们一个清晰的故事：几个月的库存主要是销售的功能，而不是建筑商的投机。当销售强劲时，房屋正在周转，几个月的库存往往会保持在较低水平。当销售额迅速下降时，建筑商往往会面临意想不到的高库存。</blockquote> From the late 1990s all the way up to the peak of new home sales in mid-2005,inventory&nbsp;was at historic lows, with about four months’ worth remaining. Of course, builders were creating more inventory to match growing sales, but it was barely enough to keep up with demand, so the number held fairly constant. Then, as economic growth started to slow, a deep drop in sales coincided with a sharp rise in months of inventory.<blockquote>从 20 世纪 90 年代末一直到 2005 年中期新房销售高峰，库存一直处于历史低位，只剩下大约四个月的价值。当然，建筑商正在创造更多的库存来匹配不断增长的销售，但这几乎不足以满足需求，因此数量保持相当稳定。然后，随着经济增长开始放缓，销售额的大幅下降与几个月来库存的急剧上升同时发生。</blockquote> Today, there are also about four months of inventory, and sales are around the same level as they were in the late 1990s. So, while it’s easy to look at on-the-ground activity and conclude that low inventory could cause bidding wars among buyers, we need to remember that buyers are really driving inventory more than the other way around. In other words, builders decide to create new homes when demand is high from buyers. If demand suddenly dries up, builders can’t suddenly make the inventory of homes under construction disappear.<blockquote>如今，还有大约四个月的库存，销售额与 20 世纪 90 年代末的水平大致相同。因此，虽然我们很容易从现场活动中得出低库存可能会导致买家之间的竞价战的结论，但我们需要记住，买家实际上是在推动库存，而不是相反。换句话说，当买家需求高时，建筑商决定建造新房。如果需求突然枯竭，建筑商不能让在建房屋的库存突然消失。</blockquote> Demand for new homes is something over which federal policy&nbsp;makers actually have some control. The Federal Reserve and other federal regulators should aim to avoid sharp declines in sales. The Fed can do this by raising or lowering interest rates, changing the money supply, and targeting changes in prices and nominal economic activity. Federal regulators can make sure that stable lending conditions are maintained, or not.One reasonthe Great Recession was so bad was that Federal Reserve officials and other federal regulators, generally responding to public sentiment, washed their hands of the horrendous collapse in sales and left homebuilders and sellers out to dry.<blockquote>联邦政策制定者实际上可以控制对新房的需求。美联储和其他联邦监管机构应致力于避免销售额急剧下降。美联储可以通过提高或降低利率、改变货币供应量以及瞄准价格和名义经济活动的变化来做到这一点。联邦监管机构可以确保保持稳定的贷款条件，也可以不保持稳定。大衰退如此严重的一个原因是，美联储官员和其他联邦监管机构通常会对公众情绪做出反应，对可怕的销售崩溃置之不理，让房屋建筑商和销售商自生自灭。</blockquote> But even in that worst-case scenario, the 2000s market was much more resilient than it seemed. In July 2005, when buyers backed off and months of inventory started to surge, the median U.S. home price was $198,000, according toZillow. In July 2008, when months of inventory was near its peak, it was still at $199,000.<blockquote>但即使在最坏的情况下，2000 年代的市场也比看起来更有弹性。据 toZillow 称，2005 年 7 月，当买家退出，几个月的库存开始激增时，美国房价中值为 198,000 美元。2008 年 7 月，当几个月的库存接近峰值时，库存仍处于 19.9 万美元。</blockquote> At the&nbsp;June 2006&nbsp;Federal Reserve meeting, Ben Bernanke said, “It is a good thing that housing is cooling. If we could wave a magic wand and reinstate 2005, we wouldn’t want to do that.” It’s notable that Jerome Powell, who today holds Bernanke’s former position as Fed chair, isn’t openly pining for a “cooler” housing market.<blockquote>在 2006 年 6 月的美联储会议上，本-伯南克说：“房地产降温是件好事。如果我们能挥舞魔杖，恢复 2005 年，我们就不想这么做了。”值得注意的是，如今接替伯南克担任美联储主席的杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）并没有公开渴望 “降温 ”的房地产市场。</blockquote> There is a common belief that before the Great Recession, homebuyers were taken in by themyththat home prices never go down, and they became complacent. Those buyers turned out to be wrong. Yet, even when a concerted effort to kill housing markets succeeded, we had to beat them into submission for three full years before prices relented. Home prices can go down, but we have to work very hard, together, for a long time, to make them fall.<blockquote>人们普遍认为，在大衰退之前，购房者被房价永远不会下跌的神话所迷惑，他们变得自满。那些买家被证明是错的。然而，即使在扼杀房地产市场的共同努力取得成功时，我们也不得不让它们屈服整整三年，房价才有所缓和。房价可能会下跌，但我们必须非常努力地工作，一起工作很长时间，才能让房价下跌。</blockquote> If you are a buyer in a hot market where home prices are 30% higher than they were a year ago, you’re getting a 30% worse deal than you could have had back then. Nothing can be done about that. That said, the main things to be concerned with are the factors federal policymakers are in control of. There is little reason to expect housing demand to collapse. If it does, it will require communal intention—federal monetary and credit policies meant to create or accept a sharp drop in demand. And even if federal officials intend for housing construction to collapse, history suggests that a market contraction would push new sales down deeply for an extended period of time before prices relent.<blockquote>如果你是一个热门市场的买家，房价比一年前高出 30%，那么你得到的交易将比当时差 30%。对此无能为力。也就是说，主要关注的是联邦政策制定者可以控制的因素。几乎没有理由预期住房需求会崩溃。如果发生这种情况，它将需要公共意图——联邦货币和信贷政策旨在创造或接受需求的急剧下降。即使联邦官员希望住房建设崩溃，历史表明，在价格回落之前，市场萎缩将在很长一段时间内推动新销售大幅下降。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Housing Prices Are Going Up. Must They Crash?<blockquote>房价在上涨。他们一定要坠毁吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHousing Prices Are Going Up. Must They Crash?<blockquote>房价在上涨。他们一定要坠毁吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-06-30 09:42\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThere are&nbsp;many&nbsp;reports&nbsp;of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices have&nbsp;appreciated&nbsp;by well more than 10% over the past year. This naturally leads to a concern about market volatility: Must what goes up comedown? Are werepeatingthe excesses of the early 2000s, when housing prices surged before the market crashed?<blockquote>有许多报道称购房者陷入竞购战，许多城市的房价在过去一年中上涨了 10% 以上。这自然会引发对市场波动的担忧：上涨的东西一定会下跌吗？我们是否正在重蹈21世纪初房价在市场崩溃前飙升的过度行为？</blockquote> Some&nbsp;analysts&nbsp;argue that this time, it’s even less likely that prices will fall.Inventoriesof new homes for sale are very low, and lending standards are much tighter than in 2005. This is true. In fact, the ground is even firmer than it seems.<blockquote>一些分析师认为，这一次，房价下跌的可能性更小。待售新房库存非常低，贷款标准也比2005年严格得多。这是真的。事实上，地面比看起来还要坚实。</blockquote> New home inventories were very high before the Great Recession. Today, they are closer to the level that has been common for decades. The portion of&nbsp;inventory&nbsp;built and ready for move-in is especially low because of supply chain interruptions combined with a sudden boost of demand during the coronavirus pandemic. We shouldn’t worry much about a crash when buyers are eagerly snapping up the available homes.<blockquote>在大衰退之前，新房库存非常高。今天，它们更接近几十年来常见的水平。由于供应链中断加上冠状病毒大流行期间需求的突然增加，已建立并准备入住的库存部分特别低。当买家急于抢购现有房屋时，我们不应该太担心房屋崩盘。</blockquote> Yet there’s another reason to believe a housing crash is unlikely: Even the high level of inventory in 2005 wasn’t nearly as speculative as most people think. Understanding why will help us interpret today’s market.<blockquote>然而，还有另一个理由认为房地产崩盘的可能性不大： 即使是 2005 年的高库存水平，也远没有大多数人想象的那么具有投机性。了解原因将有助于我们解读当今的市场。</blockquote> In&nbsp;2005, homes were being built because sales were high, and sales were high in parts of the country where demand was strong. Builders were conservatively scaling their inventories with rising sales. The same is true today.<blockquote>2005年，房屋正在建造，因为销售很高，在该国需求旺盛的部分地区销售也很高。随着销售额的增长，建筑商保守地扩大库存规模。今天也是如此。</blockquote> Frequently, analysts&nbsp;cite&nbsp;the sharp rise in months of inventory—the number of months it will take to sell the current supply of homes being constructed for sale, at the current sales rate—as evidence of overzealous building during the last boom. But timing is key here. Decades of experience tell a clear story: Months of inventory is mostly a function of sales rather than builder speculation. When sales are strong, homes are turning over, and months of inventory tend to stay low. When sales quickly decline, builders tend to be left with unexpectedly high inventory.<blockquote>分析师经常引用库存月数的急剧上升——按目前的销售速度出售当前待售房屋供应量所需的月数——作为上次繁荣期间过度热情建筑的证据。但是时机是关键。几十年的经验告诉我们一个清晰的故事：几个月的库存主要是销售的功能，而不是建筑商的投机。当销售强劲时，房屋正在周转，几个月的库存往往会保持在较低水平。当销售额迅速下降时，建筑商往往会面临意想不到的高库存。</blockquote> From the late 1990s all the way up to the peak of new home sales in mid-2005,inventory&nbsp;was at historic lows, with about four months’ worth remaining. Of course, builders were creating more inventory to match growing sales, but it was barely enough to keep up with demand, so the number held fairly constant. Then, as economic growth started to slow, a deep drop in sales coincided with a sharp rise in months of inventory.<blockquote>从 20 世纪 90 年代末一直到 2005 年中期新房销售高峰，库存一直处于历史低位，只剩下大约四个月的价值。当然，建筑商正在创造更多的库存来匹配不断增长的销售，但这几乎不足以满足需求，因此数量保持相当稳定。然后，随着经济增长开始放缓，销售额的大幅下降与几个月来库存的急剧上升同时发生。</blockquote> Today, there are also about four months of inventory, and sales are around the same level as they were in the late 1990s. So, while it’s easy to look at on-the-ground activity and conclude that low inventory could cause bidding wars among buyers, we need to remember that buyers are really driving inventory more than the other way around. In other words, builders decide to create new homes when demand is high from buyers. If demand suddenly dries up, builders can’t suddenly make the inventory of homes under construction disappear.<blockquote>如今，还有大约四个月的库存，销售额与 20 世纪 90 年代末的水平大致相同。因此，虽然我们很容易从现场活动中得出低库存可能会导致买家之间的竞价战的结论，但我们需要记住，买家实际上是在推动库存，而不是相反。换句话说，当买家需求高时，建筑商决定建造新房。如果需求突然枯竭，建筑商不能让在建房屋的库存突然消失。</blockquote> Demand for new homes is something over which federal policy&nbsp;makers actually have some control. The Federal Reserve and other federal regulators should aim to avoid sharp declines in sales. The Fed can do this by raising or lowering interest rates, changing the money supply, and targeting changes in prices and nominal economic activity. Federal regulators can make sure that stable lending conditions are maintained, or not.One reasonthe Great Recession was so bad was that Federal Reserve officials and other federal regulators, generally responding to public sentiment, washed their hands of the horrendous collapse in sales and left homebuilders and sellers out to dry.<blockquote>联邦政策制定者实际上可以控制对新房的需求。美联储和其他联邦监管机构应致力于避免销售额急剧下降。美联储可以通过提高或降低利率、改变货币供应量以及瞄准价格和名义经济活动的变化来做到这一点。联邦监管机构可以确保保持稳定的贷款条件，也可以不保持稳定。大衰退如此严重的一个原因是，美联储官员和其他联邦监管机构通常会对公众情绪做出反应，对可怕的销售崩溃置之不理，让房屋建筑商和销售商自生自灭。</blockquote> But even in that worst-case scenario, the 2000s market was much more resilient than it seemed. In July 2005, when buyers backed off and months of inventory started to surge, the median U.S. home price was $198,000, according toZillow. In July 2008, when months of inventory was near its peak, it was still at $199,000.<blockquote>但即使在最坏的情况下，2000 年代的市场也比看起来更有弹性。据 toZillow 称，2005 年 7 月，当买家退出，几个月的库存开始激增时，美国房价中值为 198,000 美元。2008 年 7 月，当几个月的库存接近峰值时，库存仍处于 19.9 万美元。</blockquote> At the&nbsp;June 2006&nbsp;Federal Reserve meeting, Ben Bernanke said, “It is a good thing that housing is cooling. If we could wave a magic wand and reinstate 2005, we wouldn’t want to do that.” It’s notable that Jerome Powell, who today holds Bernanke’s former position as Fed chair, isn’t openly pining for a “cooler” housing market.<blockquote>在 2006 年 6 月的美联储会议上，本-伯南克说：“房地产降温是件好事。如果我们能挥舞魔杖，恢复 2005 年，我们就不想这么做了。”值得注意的是，如今接替伯南克担任美联储主席的杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）并没有公开渴望 “降温 ”的房地产市场。</blockquote> There is a common belief that before the Great Recession, homebuyers were taken in by themyththat home prices never go down, and they became complacent. Those buyers turned out to be wrong. Yet, even when a concerted effort to kill housing markets succeeded, we had to beat them into submission for three full years before prices relented. Home prices can go down, but we have to work very hard, together, for a long time, to make them fall.<blockquote>人们普遍认为，在大衰退之前，购房者被房价永远不会下跌的神话所迷惑，他们变得自满。那些买家被证明是错的。然而，即使在扼杀房地产市场的共同努力取得成功时，我们也不得不让它们屈服整整三年，房价才有所缓和。房价可能会下跌，但我们必须非常努力地工作，一起工作很长时间，才能让房价下跌。</blockquote> If you are a buyer in a hot market where home prices are 30% higher than they were a year ago, you’re getting a 30% worse deal than you could have had back then. Nothing can be done about that. That said, the main things to be concerned with are the factors federal policymakers are in control of. There is little reason to expect housing demand to collapse. If it does, it will require communal intention—federal monetary and credit policies meant to create or accept a sharp drop in demand. And even if federal officials intend for housing construction to collapse, history suggests that a market contraction would push new sales down deeply for an extended period of time before prices relent.<blockquote>如果你是一个热门市场的买家，房价比一年前高出 30%，那么你得到的交易将比当时差 30%。对此无能为力。也就是说，主要关注的是联邦政策制定者可以控制的因素。几乎没有理由预期住房需求会崩溃。如果发生这种情况，它将需要公共意图——联邦货币和信贷政策旨在创造或接受需求的急剧下降。即使联邦官员希望住房建设崩溃，历史表明，在价格回落之前，市场萎缩将在很长一段时间内推动新销售大幅下降。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/housing-prices-market-crash-51624912461?siteid=yhoof2\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/housing-prices-market-crash-51624912461?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187567340","content_text":"There are many reports of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices have appreciated by well more than 10% over the past year. This naturally leads to a concern about market volatility: Must what goes up comedown? Are werepeatingthe excesses of the early 2000s, when housing prices surged before the market crashed?\nSome analysts argue that this time, it’s even less likely that prices will fall.Inventoriesof new homes for sale are very low, and lending standards are much tighter than in 2005. This is true. In fact, the ground is even firmer than it seems.\nNew home inventories were very high before the Great Recession. Today, they are closer to the level that has been common for decades. The portion of inventory built and ready for move-in is especially low because of supply chain interruptions combined with a sudden boost of demand during the coronavirus pandemic. We shouldn’t worry much about a crash when buyers are eagerly snapping up the available homes.\nYet there’s another reason to believe a housing crash is unlikely: Even the high level of inventory in 2005 wasn’t nearly as speculative as most people think. Understanding why will help us interpret today’s market.\nIn 2005, homes were being built because sales were high, and sales were high in parts of the country where demand was strong. Builders were conservatively scaling their inventories with rising sales. The same is true today.\nFrequently, analysts cite the sharp rise in months of inventory—the number of months it will take to sell the current supply of homes being constructed for sale, at the current sales rate—as evidence of overzealous building during the last boom. But timing is key here. Decades of experience tell a clear story: Months of inventory is mostly a function of sales rather than builder speculation. When sales are strong, homes are turning over, and months of inventory tend to stay low. When sales quickly decline, builders tend to be left with unexpectedly high inventory.\nFrom the late 1990s all the way up to the peak of new home sales in mid-2005,inventory was at historic lows, with about four months’ worth remaining. Of course, builders were creating more inventory to match growing sales, but it was barely enough to keep up with demand, so the number held fairly constant. Then, as economic growth started to slow, a deep drop in sales coincided with a sharp rise in months of inventory.\nToday, there are also about four months of inventory, and sales are around the same level as they were in the late 1990s. So, while it’s easy to look at on-the-ground activity and conclude that low inventory could cause bidding wars among buyers, we need to remember that buyers are really driving inventory more than the other way around. In other words, builders decide to create new homes when demand is high from buyers. If demand suddenly dries up, builders can’t suddenly make the inventory of homes under construction disappear.\nDemand for new homes is something over which federal policy makers actually have some control. The Federal Reserve and other federal regulators should aim to avoid sharp declines in sales. The Fed can do this by raising or lowering interest rates, changing the money supply, and targeting changes in prices and nominal economic activity. Federal regulators can make sure that stable lending conditions are maintained, or not.One reasonthe Great Recession was so bad was that Federal Reserve officials and other federal regulators, generally responding to public sentiment, washed their hands of the horrendous collapse in sales and left homebuilders and sellers out to dry.\nBut even in that worst-case scenario, the 2000s market was much more resilient than it seemed. In July 2005, when buyers backed off and months of inventory started to surge, the median U.S. home price was $198,000, according toZillow. In July 2008, when months of inventory was near its peak, it was still at $199,000.\nAt the June 2006 Federal Reserve meeting, Ben Bernanke said, “It is a good thing that housing is cooling. If we could wave a magic wand and reinstate 2005, we wouldn’t want to do that.” It’s notable that Jerome Powell, who today holds Bernanke’s former position as Fed chair, isn’t openly pining for a “cooler” housing market.\nThere is a common belief that before the Great Recession, homebuyers were taken in by themyththat home prices never go down, and they became complacent. Those buyers turned out to be wrong. Yet, even when a concerted effort to kill housing markets succeeded, we had to beat them into submission for three full years before prices relented. Home prices can go down, but we have to work very hard, together, for a long time, to make them fall.\nIf you are a buyer in a hot market where home prices are 30% higher than they were a year ago, you’re getting a 30% worse deal than you could have had back then. Nothing can be done about that. That said, the main things to be concerned with are the factors federal policymakers are in control of. There is little reason to expect housing demand to collapse. If it does, it will require communal intention—federal monetary and credit policies meant to create or accept a sharp drop in demand. And even if federal officials intend for housing construction to collapse, history suggests that a market contraction would push new sales down deeply for an extended period of time before prices relent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":858,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/153853020"}