👍_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-07-03

👍

The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":152636727,"tweetId":"152636727","gmtCreate":1625286612869,"gmtModify":1633941723198,"author":{"id":4087441318347290,"idStr":"4087441318347290","authorId":4087441318347290,"authorIdStr":"4087441318347290","name":"SeiLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61706d20f94785010ef505c40d01e97e","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>👍</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>👍</body></html>","text":"👍","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152636727","repostId":1197906560,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197906560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625285328,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1197906560?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 12:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197906560","media":"Barron's","summary":"On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat ","content":"On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.<blockquote>从表面上看，6 月份的就业报告看起来近乎完美。在经历了几个月的失望之后，招聘超出了华尔街的预期--工资有所上涨，但增长速度低于春季的高位。</blockquote> One might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.<blockquote>人们可能会倾向于宣布劳动力短缺已经结束，通货膨胀辩论已经结束。但投资者现在还不应该上钩。虽然非农就业人数增加了85万人，这无疑是强劲的，但这掩盖了劳动力市场仍然受到供应问题的困扰。</blockquote> First, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.<blockquote>首先，考虑一下上个月政府招聘增加了19.3万人。这就是整个标题超出经济学家预期的原因。公司就业人数增加了66.2万人，这在正常情况下是不可思议的。然而，随着经济突然开放，接种疫苗的消费者花掉了疫情期间囤积的数万亿美元现金，经济学家在复苏的这一点上预计的100万美元大关仍然相去甚远。</blockquote> What’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.<blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics 的伊恩-谢泼德森（Ian Shepherdson）说，更重要的是，私人就业人数远低于员工调度公司 Homebase 受到密切关注的数据所暗示的 100 万。</blockquote> Second, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.<blockquote>其次，尽管招聘情况有所改善，但 6 月份劳动力参与率持平。这一比率为61.6%，仍比大流行前的水平下降了1.7个百分点。美联储官员表示正在关注的就业与人口比率在6月份也没有变化；为 58%，仍比疫情前水平低 3.1 个百分点。</blockquote> Third, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.<blockquote>第三，工资增长放缓具有欺骗性。与 5 月份相比 0.3% 的增长看起来就像金发姑娘的指纹——足以推动持续支出，而不会加剧通胀担忧，这种担忧一直在加剧，因为从劳动力到芯片到食品的短缺推高了价格。</blockquote> “If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.<blockquote>“杰富瑞首席经济学家阿内塔-马尔科夫斯卡（Aneta Markowska）在谈到 6 月份的工资增长时说：”如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这低估了潜在工资通胀率。她说，在调整了低工资休闲、酒店和零售工人的回归后，6月份平均时薪比5月份增长了0.5%。按照这一标准，它们比去年同期增长了 4.5%。世界大型企业联合会的加德·莱瓦农 (Gad Levanon) 表示，过去三个月，随着公司追逐员工，整体工资年化上涨了 6%。</blockquote> Further highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.<blockquote>这进一步凸显了招聘仍然受到供应而非需求的阻碍：今年按年化计算，休闲和酒店业工资增长了12.3%，运输和仓储业工资增长了8%，零售工资增长了5.5%。</blockquote> So, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.<blockquote>那么，投资者如何看待 6 月份的就业报告呢？没有。也就是说，最新数据对解决劳动力市场面临的最大问题毫无帮助。</blockquote> The degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.<blockquote>过渡性因素--慷慨的失业救济金、儿童保育问题和对 Covid-19 的担忧--在多大程度上限制了招聘和推高了工资，几个月后都不会明朗。学校需要重新开放，以解决阻碍工作父母的儿童保育问题，而且在明确这些福利在多大程度上让工人留在家里之前，提高的失业救济金需要到期。</blockquote> While about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.<blockquote>虽然在联邦计划于 9 月 6 日到期之前，约有二十几个州已经开始削减或即将削减每周额外的 300 美元失业保险，但谢泼德森指出，70% 的失业者不会受到提前终止的影响。由于 6 月份的报告对美联储没有任何帮助，因此它不应该阻止股市继续前行。</blockquote> At least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.<blockquote>至少现在是这样。“谢泼德森说：”看到 85 万份工资单，你不会感到不高兴，但这还远远不够快，尤其是考虑到无数指标、求助标志和公司评论所证明的劳动力需求。“他说：”劳动力供应问题可能会自行解决，但也可能不会。“真正的问题是，我们最终可能会出现工资持续上涨”。然而，政策制定者将在获得明确数据之前搁置--而这要到 11 月才会。</blockquote> All of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.<blockquote>所有这些都意味着现在和秋天之间的数据是噪音。许多经济学家和投资者预计美联储将在下个月的年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会上宣布，计划缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote> Not so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.<blockquote>谢泼德森说，没那么快。“他说：”这并不像市场希望的那样线性，杰克逊霍尔也不会明白这一点。</blockquote> If that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.<blockquote>如果这是真的--美联储要到秋季晚些时候才能及时获得他们想要的数据来制定缩减规模的计划--那么一段更长的超宽松货币政策可能正在酝酿之中。这是假设官员们在实际开始撤回支持之前就有时间传达计划。</blockquote> Therein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.<blockquote>从现在到秋季，存在着忽略噪音或就业数据的风险。如果复学和取消提高失业救济金不能让工人重返工作岗位，那么很明显，结构性问题正在发挥作用，因此工资上涨将更加持久。正如谢泼德森所说，美联储很有可能不得不在 2022 年加息，因为人们很有可能不会重返劳动力市场。</blockquote> Investors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.<blockquote>投资者应继续享受股市涨幅。但他们也应该小心。等待明确数据显示劳动力短缺是否不仅仅是暂时的，这意味着政策制定者可能不得不比看起来更快、更快地采取行动--尤其是如果未来几个月出现像 6 月份这样具有欺骗性的平衡报告的话。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-07-03 12:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOn its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.<blockquote>从表面上看，6 月份的就业报告看起来近乎完美。在经历了几个月的失望之后，招聘超出了华尔街的预期--工资有所上涨，但增长速度低于春季的高位。</blockquote> One might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.<blockquote>人们可能会倾向于宣布劳动力短缺已经结束，通货膨胀辩论已经结束。但投资者现在还不应该上钩。虽然非农就业人数增加了85万人，这无疑是强劲的，但这掩盖了劳动力市场仍然受到供应问题的困扰。</blockquote> First, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.<blockquote>首先，考虑一下上个月政府招聘增加了19.3万人。这就是整个标题超出经济学家预期的原因。公司就业人数增加了66.2万人，这在正常情况下是不可思议的。然而，随着经济突然开放，接种疫苗的消费者花掉了疫情期间囤积的数万亿美元现金，经济学家在复苏的这一点上预计的100万美元大关仍然相去甚远。</blockquote> What’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.<blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics 的伊恩-谢泼德森（Ian Shepherdson）说，更重要的是，私人就业人数远低于员工调度公司 Homebase 受到密切关注的数据所暗示的 100 万。</blockquote> Second, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.<blockquote>其次，尽管招聘情况有所改善，但 6 月份劳动力参与率持平。这一比率为61.6%，仍比大流行前的水平下降了1.7个百分点。美联储官员表示正在关注的就业与人口比率在6月份也没有变化；为 58%，仍比疫情前水平低 3.1 个百分点。</blockquote> Third, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.<blockquote>第三，工资增长放缓具有欺骗性。与 5 月份相比 0.3% 的增长看起来就像金发姑娘的指纹——足以推动持续支出，而不会加剧通胀担忧，这种担忧一直在加剧，因为从劳动力到芯片到食品的短缺推高了价格。</blockquote> “If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.<blockquote>“杰富瑞首席经济学家阿内塔-马尔科夫斯卡（Aneta Markowska）在谈到 6 月份的工资增长时说：”如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这低估了潜在工资通胀率。她说，在调整了低工资休闲、酒店和零售工人的回归后，6月份平均时薪比5月份增长了0.5%。按照这一标准，它们比去年同期增长了 4.5%。世界大型企业联合会的加德·莱瓦农 (Gad Levanon) 表示，过去三个月，随着公司追逐员工，整体工资年化上涨了 6%。</blockquote> Further highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.<blockquote>这进一步凸显了招聘仍然受到供应而非需求的阻碍：今年按年化计算，休闲和酒店业工资增长了12.3%，运输和仓储业工资增长了8%，零售工资增长了5.5%。</blockquote> So, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.<blockquote>那么，投资者如何看待 6 月份的就业报告呢？没有。也就是说，最新数据对解决劳动力市场面临的最大问题毫无帮助。</blockquote> The degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.<blockquote>过渡性因素--慷慨的失业救济金、儿童保育问题和对 Covid-19 的担忧--在多大程度上限制了招聘和推高了工资，几个月后都不会明朗。学校需要重新开放，以解决阻碍工作父母的儿童保育问题，而且在明确这些福利在多大程度上让工人留在家里之前，提高的失业救济金需要到期。</blockquote> While about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.<blockquote>虽然在联邦计划于 9 月 6 日到期之前，约有二十几个州已经开始削减或即将削减每周额外的 300 美元失业保险，但谢泼德森指出，70% 的失业者不会受到提前终止的影响。由于 6 月份的报告对美联储没有任何帮助，因此它不应该阻止股市继续前行。</blockquote> At least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.<blockquote>至少现在是这样。“谢泼德森说：”看到 85 万份工资单，你不会感到不高兴，但这还远远不够快，尤其是考虑到无数指标、求助标志和公司评论所证明的劳动力需求。“他说：”劳动力供应问题可能会自行解决，但也可能不会。“真正的问题是，我们最终可能会出现工资持续上涨”。然而，政策制定者将在获得明确数据之前搁置--而这要到 11 月才会。</blockquote> All of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.<blockquote>所有这些都意味着现在和秋天之间的数据是噪音。许多经济学家和投资者预计美联储将在下个月的年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会上宣布，计划缩减每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote> Not so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.<blockquote>谢泼德森说，没那么快。“他说：”这并不像市场希望的那样线性，杰克逊霍尔也不会明白这一点。</blockquote> If that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.<blockquote>如果这是真的--美联储要到秋季晚些时候才能及时获得他们想要的数据来制定缩减规模的计划--那么一段更长的超宽松货币政策可能正在酝酿之中。这是假设官员们在实际开始撤回支持之前就有时间传达计划。</blockquote> Therein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.<blockquote>从现在到秋季，存在着忽略噪音或就业数据的风险。如果复学和取消提高失业救济金不能让工人重返工作岗位，那么很明显，结构性问题正在发挥作用，因此工资上涨将更加持久。正如谢泼德森所说，美联储很有可能不得不在 2022 年加息，因为人们很有可能不会重返劳动力市场。</blockquote> Investors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.<blockquote>投资者应继续享受股市涨幅。但他们也应该小心。等待明确数据显示劳动力短缺是否不仅仅是暂时的，这意味着政策制定者可能不得不比看起来更快、更快地采取行动--尤其是如果未来几个月出现像 6 月份这样具有欺骗性的平衡报告的话。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-investors-should-be-skeptical-51625267210?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-investors-should-be-skeptical-51625267210?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197906560","content_text":"On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.\nOne might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.\nFirst, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.\nWhat’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.\nSecond, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.\nThird, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.\n“If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.\nFurther highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.\nSo, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.\nThe degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.\nWhile about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.\nAt least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.\nAll of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.\nNot so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.\nIf that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.\nTherein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.\nInvestors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/152636727"}