Chaoz
2021-06-28
Go go Palantir!
Palantir: The Mass Exodus<blockquote>Palantir：大规模出走</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":150116702,"tweetId":"150116702","gmtCreate":1624889511006,"gmtModify":1631892966853,"author":{"id":3577177978053637,"idStr":"3577177978053637","authorId":3577177978053637,"authorIdStr":"3577177978053637","name":"Chaoz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e5cd870c58af6962bb688144f19480","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Go go Palantir! </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Go go Palantir! </p></body></html>","text":"Go go Palantir!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150116702","repostId":1105982179,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105982179","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624889210,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1105982179?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 22:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: The Mass Exodus<blockquote>Palantir：大规模出走</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105982179","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir conti","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Short interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.</li> <li>Even though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with shorting the stock.</li> <li>The stock could rally further.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16279727ada0c46eb4d43744da02d1cc\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在最近一个周期中，Palantir 的空头兴趣下降了 23.8%。</li><li>尽管 Palantir 继续被看跌言论所包围，但市场参与者似乎并不愿意做空该股。</li><li>该股可能会进一步上涨。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's (PLTR) shares are up 20% in the last month alone but the rally could still continue. Latest data reveals that short interest in Palantir declined by 23.8% in the latest cycle alone. This suggests that a broad swath of market participants isn't buying into the bearish narratives surrounding the company, perceive its stock to be fairly valued and perhaps even anticipate it to rally going forward. This development should come across as an encouraging sign for the company's long-side investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 的股价仅上个月就上涨了 20%，但涨势仍可能持续。最新数据显示，仅在最近一个周期，对 Palantir 的空头兴趣就下降了 23.8%。这表明广大市场参与者并不相信围绕该公司的看跌说法，认为其股票估值合理，甚至可能预计其未来会上涨。这一进展对于该公司的多头投资者来说应该是一个令人鼓舞的迹象。让我们仔细看看这一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Data</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据</b></blockquote></p><p> I'd like to start by explaining the term \"short interest\" for the uninitiated. It's essentially the total number of short positions that are open against any given stock. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that traders grew bearish on the concerned company, and actively initiated short positions against it. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that traders actively wound up their short positions either perhaps because they anticipate the stock to bottom out and/or rally going forward. So, the short interest is a useful tool to gauge the Street's ever-evolving market sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>我想首先为门外汉解释一下“空头利息”这个术语。它本质上是针对任何给定股票的空头头寸总数。该指标的急剧上升表明交易员对相关公司变得看跌，并积极针对该公司建立空头头寸。相反，该指标的急剧下降表明交易者积极平仓空头头寸，可能是因为他们预计股票将触底和/或未来反弹。因此，空头利息是衡量华尔街不断变化的市场情绪的有用工具。</blockquote></p><p> In Palantir's case, its short interest at the end of the latest data cycle stood at 52.3 million, sharply down by 23.8% on a sequential basis. Although Palantir's short interest figure isn't at its all-time low yet, the pace of its recent decline, however, is certainly one of the fastest in the company's brief history since its direct listing last year. For the record, Palantir has over 1.8 billion shares outstanding which means that about 2.8% of its entire share total had been shorted. Also, the short interest data is for the cycle spanning from early June to mid-June, and the data wasreleasedon Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>以 Palantir 为例，在最新数据周期结束时，其空头权益为 5230 万，环比大幅下降 23.8%。尽管 Palantir 的空头利息数字尚未处于历史最低点，但其最近的下降速度无疑是该公司自去年直接上市以来短暂历史上最快的下降速度之一。根据记录，Palantir 拥有超过 18 亿股流通股，这意味着其全部股票总数的约 2.8% 已被做空。此外，空头利息数据涵盖 6 月初至 6 月中旬的周期，该数据于周四发布。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95e4623fda1d9079a2699b57d4ee0f42\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Next, I wanted to confirm if other software application companies also registered a sharp reduction in their short interest figures, or was Palantir an anomaly in its peer group. So, to get a broader perspective on its industry, I pulled the short interest figures for about 100 software application stocks listed in the US. Interestingly, 55% of these stocks registered a net reduction in their short interest figures, of varying magnitudes of course, which points to an industry-wide short unwinding.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我想确认其他软件应用公司的空头利息数字是否也大幅下降，或者 Palantir 是否是同行中的一个异常现象。因此，为了更广泛地了解其行业，我绘制了大约 100 只在美国上市的软件应用股票的空头利息数据。有趣的是，这些股票中有 55% 的空头利息数字出现净下降，当然幅度各不相同，这表明整个行业的空头平仓。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091feec9aa17f821d01f34a7b46bb2bb\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"506\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Wsj.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：BusinessQuant.com、Wsj.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the median short interest decline was 1.9%, whereas Palantir's short interest declined by a far more significant 23.8% during the same data cycle. In fact, there were just 6 other stocks in our study group, which saw their short interest decline in excess of 23.8%. This conclusively shows that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>此外，空头利息下降幅度中位数为 1.9%，而 Palantir 的空头利息在同一数据周期内下降幅度更大，达到 23.8%。事实上，我们的研究组中只有其他6只股票，其空头利息下降超过23.8%。这最终表明市场参与者在平仓 Palantir 空头头寸方面过于积极。</blockquote></p><p> But this leads us to an important question - why are market participants so cautious with shorting Palantir in the first place?</p><p><blockquote>但这给我们带来了一个重要的问题——为什么市场参与者首先对做空 Palantir 如此谨慎？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cautious for Good Reason</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有充分理由谨慎</b></blockquote></p><p> As I've explained in my prior articles, Palantir has several initiatives at play which could collectively catapult its growth in 2021-22. These initiatives include itstransitionto a customer-friendly payment model to boost commercial sales, offeringfree trialsto major companies to expand its sales funnel and expanding itssales teamto revamp its outbound marketing function. We won't be discussing the same points again to avoid being repetitive, but the takeaway here is that since Palantir is undertaking several growth initiatives, it makes for a risky short bet for the time being at least.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前的文章中解释的那样，Palantir有几项举措可以共同推动其在2021-22年的增长。这些举措包括向客户友好的支付模式过渡以促进商业销售，向大公司提供免费试用以扩大其销售渠道，以及扩大其销售团队以改进其对外营销功能。为了避免重复，我们不会再次讨论相同的观点，但这里的要点是，由于 Palantir 正在采取多项增长计划，因此至少目前这是一个有风险的空头押注。</blockquote></p><p> But don't take my word for it.</p><p><blockquote>但不要相信我的话。</blockquote></p><p> The community of professional analysts is realizing Palantir's growth potential and raising their revenue estimates for its current fiscal year. They've raised their FY21 revenue estimates by about 5% so far since mid-January and there's no telling how many of such upward revenue revisions are still in store for the remainder of Palantir's FY21. This bullish uncertainty presents an unfavorable risk-reward ratio for short-side market participants and explains why short interest in Palantir continues to decline.</p><p><blockquote>专业分析师社区正在意识到 Palantir 的增长潜力，并提高了其当前财年的收入预期。自 1 月中旬以来，他们已将 21 财年收入预期上调了约 5%，目前尚不清楚 Palantir 21 财年剩余时间内仍有多少此类收入上调。这种看涨的不确定性给空头市场参与者带来了不利的风险回报率，并解释了为什么对 Palantir 的空头兴趣持续下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74bccdf90ceb880c1a3edddad8743a1e\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> There's another point to consider here, that nobody seems to be talking about. Palantir has won several COVID-19 tracking-related contracts (such ashere,here,here,hereandhere) over the last 12 - 15 months as government agencies across the globe grappled to control the spread and tried to better manage their resources. With COVID-19 said to be making a fierce comeback with thedelta variant, I contend that Palantir could experience a similar order windfall this year, from proactive government agencies, which could boost the company's government sales along the way.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有一点需要考虑，似乎没有人谈论。在过去的12-15个月里，随着全球政府机构努力控制病毒传播并试图更好地管理其资源，Palantir赢得了几份与新冠肺炎跟踪相关的合同（如ashere、here、here和here）。据说 COVID-19 将凭借 Delta 变体强势卷土重来，我认为 Palantir 今年可能会经历来自积极主动的政府机构的类似订单意外之财，这可能会在此过程中促进该公司的政府销售。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, several commenters argue that Palantir's shares are trading at a premium and are due for a sharp correction. Its shares are trading at about 34-times trailing twelve-month sales so it's understandable why many might think that the stock is overvalued. But I believe the problem with this approach is that we're not factoring in industry-wide trading multiples or Palantir's revenue growth rate, compared to its peers.</p><p><blockquote>最后，一些评论者认为 Palantir 的股价正在溢价，并且应该会出现大幅调整。其股价在过去 12 个月销售额中的交易价格约为 34 倍，因此许多人认为该股被高估是可以理解的。但我认为这种方法的问题在于，与同行相比，我们没有考虑全行业的交易倍数或 Palantir 的收入增长率。</blockquote></p><p> So, to put things in perspective, I compiled the revenue growth rates and price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for over 320 software infrastructure and software application stocks that are currently listed on US exchanges. Next, I benchmarked these industry groups based on Palantir's revenue growth rate and its P/S multiple. As it turns out, over 90% of Palantir's peers have a slower revenue growth and/or are trading at higher trading multiples. This suggests that Palantir's higher pace of growth justifies its price premium and that the bearish concerns regarding its valuations, are exaggerated.</p><p><blockquote>因此，为了客观地看待事情，我编制了目前在美国交易所上市的320多只软件基础设施和软件应用股票的收入增长率和市销率（或P/S）倍数。接下来，我根据 Palantir 的收入增长率及其市盈率对这些行业集团进行了基准测试。事实证明，超过 90% 的 Palantir 同行收入增长较慢和/或交易倍数较高。这表明 Palantir 较高的增长率证明了其价格溢价的合理性，并且对其估值的悲观担忧被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefb171f61438817b747d6a50fff8133\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>(Source: Business Quant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Business Quant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> I'd like to point to readers that fluctuations in short interest figures don't always impact the underlying stock prices. This data is based on short positions that were open at a prior cut-off date and investors with a long-term time horizon should, at best, use it to corroborate their bull or bear thesis.</p><p><blockquote>我想向读者指出，空头利息数据的波动并不总是影响标的股票价格。该数据基于在先前截止日期开立的空头头寸，具有长期期限的投资者充其量应该使用它来证实他们的牛市或熊市论点。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, if the bearish narratives surrounding Palantir held any merit, or posed a legitimate risk to its share price, a broad swath of market participants would've actively shorted the stock to profit off of this near-certain eventuality. But that didn't happen and its short interest declined instead, that too by a significant amount.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，如果围绕 Palantir 的看跌说法有任何价值，或者对其股价构成合法风险，那么广大市场参与者就会积极做空该股，以从这种几乎确定的可能性中获利。但这并没有发生，其空头利息反而下降了，而且下降幅度也很大。</blockquote></p><p> This active short unwinding indicates that market participants are uncomfortable in shorting the stock at current levels. This should come across as a reassuring sign for the company's long-side shareholders. The stock seems to be fairly valued and has the potential to rally further. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote>这种积极的空头平仓表明市场参与者对在当前水平做空该股感到不安。对于公司的长期股东来说，这应该是一个令人放心的迹象。该股似乎估值合理，并有进一步上涨的潜力。祝你好运!</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: The Mass Exodus<blockquote>Palantir：大规模出走</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: The Mass Exodus<blockquote>Palantir：大规模出走</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 22:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Short interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.</li> <li>Even though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with shorting the stock.</li> <li>The stock could rally further.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16279727ada0c46eb4d43744da02d1cc\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在最近一个周期中，Palantir 的空头兴趣下降了 23.8%。</li><li>尽管 Palantir 继续被看跌言论所包围，但市场参与者似乎并不愿意做空该股。</li><li>该股可能会进一步上涨。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's (PLTR) shares are up 20% in the last month alone but the rally could still continue. Latest data reveals that short interest in Palantir declined by 23.8% in the latest cycle alone. This suggests that a broad swath of market participants isn't buying into the bearish narratives surrounding the company, perceive its stock to be fairly valued and perhaps even anticipate it to rally going forward. This development should come across as an encouraging sign for the company's long-side investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 的股价仅上个月就上涨了 20%，但涨势仍可能持续。最新数据显示，仅在最近一个周期，对 Palantir 的空头兴趣就下降了 23.8%。这表明广大市场参与者并不相信围绕该公司的看跌说法，认为其股票估值合理，甚至可能预计其未来会上涨。这一进展对于该公司的多头投资者来说应该是一个令人鼓舞的迹象。让我们仔细看看这一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Data</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据</b></blockquote></p><p> I'd like to start by explaining the term \"short interest\" for the uninitiated. It's essentially the total number of short positions that are open against any given stock. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that traders grew bearish on the concerned company, and actively initiated short positions against it. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that traders actively wound up their short positions either perhaps because they anticipate the stock to bottom out and/or rally going forward. So, the short interest is a useful tool to gauge the Street's ever-evolving market sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>我想首先为门外汉解释一下“空头利息”这个术语。它本质上是针对任何给定股票的空头头寸总数。该指标的急剧上升表明交易员对相关公司变得看跌，并积极针对该公司建立空头头寸。相反，该指标的急剧下降表明交易者积极平仓空头头寸，可能是因为他们预计股票将触底和/或未来反弹。因此，空头利息是衡量华尔街不断变化的市场情绪的有用工具。</blockquote></p><p> In Palantir's case, its short interest at the end of the latest data cycle stood at 52.3 million, sharply down by 23.8% on a sequential basis. Although Palantir's short interest figure isn't at its all-time low yet, the pace of its recent decline, however, is certainly one of the fastest in the company's brief history since its direct listing last year. For the record, Palantir has over 1.8 billion shares outstanding which means that about 2.8% of its entire share total had been shorted. Also, the short interest data is for the cycle spanning from early June to mid-June, and the data wasreleasedon Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>以 Palantir 为例，在最新数据周期结束时，其空头权益为 5230 万，环比大幅下降 23.8%。尽管 Palantir 的空头利息数字尚未处于历史最低点，但其最近的下降速度无疑是该公司自去年直接上市以来短暂历史上最快的下降速度之一。根据记录，Palantir 拥有超过 18 亿股流通股，这意味着其全部股票总数的约 2.8% 已被做空。此外，空头利息数据涵盖 6 月初至 6 月中旬的周期，该数据于周四发布。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95e4623fda1d9079a2699b57d4ee0f42\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Next, I wanted to confirm if other software application companies also registered a sharp reduction in their short interest figures, or was Palantir an anomaly in its peer group. So, to get a broader perspective on its industry, I pulled the short interest figures for about 100 software application stocks listed in the US. Interestingly, 55% of these stocks registered a net reduction in their short interest figures, of varying magnitudes of course, which points to an industry-wide short unwinding.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我想确认其他软件应用公司的空头利息数字是否也大幅下降，或者 Palantir 是否是同行中的一个异常现象。因此，为了更广泛地了解其行业，我绘制了大约 100 只在美国上市的软件应用股票的空头利息数据。有趣的是，这些股票中有 55% 的空头利息数字出现净下降，当然幅度各不相同，这表明整个行业的空头平仓。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091feec9aa17f821d01f34a7b46bb2bb\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"506\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Wsj.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：BusinessQuant.com、Wsj.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the median short interest decline was 1.9%, whereas Palantir's short interest declined by a far more significant 23.8% during the same data cycle. In fact, there were just 6 other stocks in our study group, which saw their short interest decline in excess of 23.8%. This conclusively shows that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>此外，空头利息下降幅度中位数为 1.9%，而 Palantir 的空头利息在同一数据周期内下降幅度更大，达到 23.8%。事实上，我们的研究组中只有其他6只股票，其空头利息下降超过23.8%。这最终表明市场参与者在平仓 Palantir 空头头寸方面过于积极。</blockquote></p><p> But this leads us to an important question - why are market participants so cautious with shorting Palantir in the first place?</p><p><blockquote>但这给我们带来了一个重要的问题——为什么市场参与者首先对做空 Palantir 如此谨慎？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cautious for Good Reason</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有充分理由谨慎</b></blockquote></p><p> As I've explained in my prior articles, Palantir has several initiatives at play which could collectively catapult its growth in 2021-22. These initiatives include itstransitionto a customer-friendly payment model to boost commercial sales, offeringfree trialsto major companies to expand its sales funnel and expanding itssales teamto revamp its outbound marketing function. We won't be discussing the same points again to avoid being repetitive, but the takeaway here is that since Palantir is undertaking several growth initiatives, it makes for a risky short bet for the time being at least.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前的文章中解释的那样，Palantir有几项举措可以共同推动其在2021-22年的增长。这些举措包括向客户友好的支付模式过渡以促进商业销售，向大公司提供免费试用以扩大其销售渠道，以及扩大其销售团队以改进其对外营销功能。为了避免重复，我们不会再次讨论相同的观点，但这里的要点是，由于 Palantir 正在采取多项增长计划，因此至少目前这是一个有风险的空头押注。</blockquote></p><p> But don't take my word for it.</p><p><blockquote>但不要相信我的话。</blockquote></p><p> The community of professional analysts is realizing Palantir's growth potential and raising their revenue estimates for its current fiscal year. They've raised their FY21 revenue estimates by about 5% so far since mid-January and there's no telling how many of such upward revenue revisions are still in store for the remainder of Palantir's FY21. This bullish uncertainty presents an unfavorable risk-reward ratio for short-side market participants and explains why short interest in Palantir continues to decline.</p><p><blockquote>专业分析师社区正在意识到 Palantir 的增长潜力，并提高了其当前财年的收入预期。自 1 月中旬以来，他们已将 21 财年收入预期上调了约 5%，目前尚不清楚 Palantir 21 财年剩余时间内仍有多少此类收入上调。这种看涨的不确定性给空头市场参与者带来了不利的风险回报率，并解释了为什么对 Palantir 的空头兴趣持续下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74bccdf90ceb880c1a3edddad8743a1e\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> There's another point to consider here, that nobody seems to be talking about. Palantir has won several COVID-19 tracking-related contracts (such ashere,here,here,hereandhere) over the last 12 - 15 months as government agencies across the globe grappled to control the spread and tried to better manage their resources. With COVID-19 said to be making a fierce comeback with thedelta variant, I contend that Palantir could experience a similar order windfall this year, from proactive government agencies, which could boost the company's government sales along the way.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有一点需要考虑，似乎没有人谈论。在过去的12-15个月里，随着全球政府机构努力控制病毒传播并试图更好地管理其资源，Palantir赢得了几份与新冠肺炎跟踪相关的合同（如ashere、here、here和here）。据说 COVID-19 将凭借 Delta 变体强势卷土重来，我认为 Palantir 今年可能会经历来自积极主动的政府机构的类似订单意外之财，这可能会在此过程中促进该公司的政府销售。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, several commenters argue that Palantir's shares are trading at a premium and are due for a sharp correction. Its shares are trading at about 34-times trailing twelve-month sales so it's understandable why many might think that the stock is overvalued. But I believe the problem with this approach is that we're not factoring in industry-wide trading multiples or Palantir's revenue growth rate, compared to its peers.</p><p><blockquote>最后，一些评论者认为 Palantir 的股价正在溢价，并且应该会出现大幅调整。其股价在过去 12 个月销售额中的交易价格约为 34 倍，因此许多人认为该股被高估是可以理解的。但我认为这种方法的问题在于，与同行相比，我们没有考虑全行业的交易倍数或 Palantir 的收入增长率。</blockquote></p><p> So, to put things in perspective, I compiled the revenue growth rates and price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for over 320 software infrastructure and software application stocks that are currently listed on US exchanges. Next, I benchmarked these industry groups based on Palantir's revenue growth rate and its P/S multiple. As it turns out, over 90% of Palantir's peers have a slower revenue growth and/or are trading at higher trading multiples. This suggests that Palantir's higher pace of growth justifies its price premium and that the bearish concerns regarding its valuations, are exaggerated.</p><p><blockquote>因此，为了客观地看待事情，我编制了目前在美国交易所上市的320多只软件基础设施和软件应用股票的收入增长率和市销率（或P/S）倍数。接下来，我根据 Palantir 的收入增长率及其市盈率对这些行业集团进行了基准测试。事实证明，超过 90% 的 Palantir 同行收入增长较慢和/或交易倍数较高。这表明 Palantir 较高的增长率证明了其价格溢价的合理性，并且对其估值的悲观担忧被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefb171f61438817b747d6a50fff8133\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>(Source: Business Quant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Business Quant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> I'd like to point to readers that fluctuations in short interest figures don't always impact the underlying stock prices. This data is based on short positions that were open at a prior cut-off date and investors with a long-term time horizon should, at best, use it to corroborate their bull or bear thesis.</p><p><blockquote>我想向读者指出，空头利息数据的波动并不总是影响标的股票价格。该数据基于在先前截止日期开立的空头头寸，具有长期期限的投资者充其量应该使用它来证实他们的牛市或熊市论点。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, if the bearish narratives surrounding Palantir held any merit, or posed a legitimate risk to its share price, a broad swath of market participants would've actively shorted the stock to profit off of this near-certain eventuality. But that didn't happen and its short interest declined instead, that too by a significant amount.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，如果围绕 Palantir 的看跌说法有任何价值，或者对其股价构成合法风险，那么广大市场参与者就会积极做空该股，以从这种几乎确定的可能性中获利。但这并没有发生，其空头利息反而下降了，而且下降幅度也很大。</blockquote></p><p> This active short unwinding indicates that market participants are uncomfortable in shorting the stock at current levels. This should come across as a reassuring sign for the company's long-side shareholders. The stock seems to be fairly valued and has the potential to rally further. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote>这种积极的空头平仓表明市场参与者对在当前水平做空该股感到不安。对于公司的长期股东来说，这应该是一个令人放心的迹象。该股似乎估值合理，并有进一步上涨的潜力。祝你好运!</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105982179","content_text":"Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with shorting the stock.\nThe stock could rally further.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nPalantir's (PLTR) shares are up 20% in the last month alone but the rally could still continue. Latest data reveals that short interest in Palantir declined by 23.8% in the latest cycle alone. This suggests that a broad swath of market participants isn't buying into the bearish narratives surrounding the company, perceive its stock to be fairly valued and perhaps even anticipate it to rally going forward. This development should come across as an encouraging sign for the company's long-side investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.\nThe Data\nI'd like to start by explaining the term \"short interest\" for the uninitiated. It's essentially the total number of short positions that are open against any given stock. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that traders grew bearish on the concerned company, and actively initiated short positions against it. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that traders actively wound up their short positions either perhaps because they anticipate the stock to bottom out and/or rally going forward. So, the short interest is a useful tool to gauge the Street's ever-evolving market sentiment.\nIn Palantir's case, its short interest at the end of the latest data cycle stood at 52.3 million, sharply down by 23.8% on a sequential basis. Although Palantir's short interest figure isn't at its all-time low yet, the pace of its recent decline, however, is certainly one of the fastest in the company's brief history since its direct listing last year. For the record, Palantir has over 1.8 billion shares outstanding which means that about 2.8% of its entire share total had been shorted. Also, the short interest data is for the cycle spanning from early June to mid-June, and the data wasreleasedon Thursday.\n\nNext, I wanted to confirm if other software application companies also registered a sharp reduction in their short interest figures, or was Palantir an anomaly in its peer group. So, to get a broader perspective on its industry, I pulled the short interest figures for about 100 software application stocks listed in the US. Interestingly, 55% of these stocks registered a net reduction in their short interest figures, of varying magnitudes of course, which points to an industry-wide short unwinding.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Wsj.com)\nMoreover, the median short interest decline was 1.9%, whereas Palantir's short interest declined by a far more significant 23.8% during the same data cycle. In fact, there were just 6 other stocks in our study group, which saw their short interest decline in excess of 23.8%. This conclusively shows that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir.\nBut this leads us to an important question - why are market participants so cautious with shorting Palantir in the first place?\nCautious for Good Reason\nAs I've explained in my prior articles, Palantir has several initiatives at play which could collectively catapult its growth in 2021-22. These initiatives include itstransitionto a customer-friendly payment model to boost commercial sales, offeringfree trialsto major companies to expand its sales funnel and expanding itssales teamto revamp its outbound marketing function. We won't be discussing the same points again to avoid being repetitive, but the takeaway here is that since Palantir is undertaking several growth initiatives, it makes for a risky short bet for the time being at least.\nBut don't take my word for it.\nThe community of professional analysts is realizing Palantir's growth potential and raising their revenue estimates for its current fiscal year. They've raised their FY21 revenue estimates by about 5% so far since mid-January and there's no telling how many of such upward revenue revisions are still in store for the remainder of Palantir's FY21. This bullish uncertainty presents an unfavorable risk-reward ratio for short-side market participants and explains why short interest in Palantir continues to decline.\n\nThere's another point to consider here, that nobody seems to be talking about. Palantir has won several COVID-19 tracking-related contracts (such ashere,here,here,hereandhere) over the last 12 - 15 months as government agencies across the globe grappled to control the spread and tried to better manage their resources. With COVID-19 said to be making a fierce comeback with thedelta variant, I contend that Palantir could experience a similar order windfall this year, from proactive government agencies, which could boost the company's government sales along the way.\nLastly, several commenters argue that Palantir's shares are trading at a premium and are due for a sharp correction. Its shares are trading at about 34-times trailing twelve-month sales so it's understandable why many might think that the stock is overvalued. But I believe the problem with this approach is that we're not factoring in industry-wide trading multiples or Palantir's revenue growth rate, compared to its peers.\nSo, to put things in perspective, I compiled the revenue growth rates and price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for over 320 software infrastructure and software application stocks that are currently listed on US exchanges. Next, I benchmarked these industry groups based on Palantir's revenue growth rate and its P/S multiple. As it turns out, over 90% of Palantir's peers have a slower revenue growth and/or are trading at higher trading multiples. This suggests that Palantir's higher pace of growth justifies its price premium and that the bearish concerns regarding its valuations, are exaggerated.\n(Source: Business Quant.com)\nFinal Thoughts\nI'd like to point to readers that fluctuations in short interest figures don't always impact the underlying stock prices. This data is based on short positions that were open at a prior cut-off date and investors with a long-term time horizon should, at best, use it to corroborate their bull or bear thesis.\nHaving said that, if the bearish narratives surrounding Palantir held any merit, or posed a legitimate risk to its share price, a broad swath of market participants would've actively shorted the stock to profit off of this near-certain eventuality. But that didn't happen and its short interest declined instead, that too by a significant amount.\nThis active short unwinding indicates that market participants are uncomfortable in shorting the stock at current levels. This should come across as a reassuring sign for the company's long-side shareholders. The stock seems to be fairly valued and has the potential to rally further. Good Luck!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2192,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/150116702"}
精彩评论