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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":147966376,"tweetId":"147966376","gmtCreate":1626328287895,"gmtModify":1633927808891,"author":{"id":3574921814752173,"idStr":"3574921814752173","authorId":3574921814752173,"authorIdStr":"3574921814752173","name":"loti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cca1ef20b63a0869e29787e48188b21","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":50,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147966376","repostId":1122873304,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122873304","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626320892,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122873304?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 11:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation: The Next Stage Of The Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031<blockquote>通货膨胀：2007-2031年全球金融危机的下一阶段</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122873304","media":"zerohedge","summary":"“The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones; so be it with Caesar.”“Oh, that’s nothing to worry about, the central banks have no choice but to keep juicing markets”…The market is so focused on the short-term and ignoring the consequences of the last 10 years of QE, monetary experimentation and easy rates, that its blundering into the next crisis. Inflation matters, and has jumped from financial assets into the real economy.I should warn readers this morning’","content":"“The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones; so be it with Caesar.”<blockquote>“人所做的恶事会留在他们身后；善良的人往往会和他们的骸骨一起埋葬；凯撒也是如此。”</blockquote> What Inflation? “Oh, that’s nothing to worry about, the central banks have no choice but to keep juicing markets”… The market is so focused on the short-term and ignoring the consequences of the last 10 years of QE, monetary experimentation and easy rates, that its blundering into the next crisis. Inflation matters, and has jumped from financial assets into the real economy.<blockquote>什么通货膨胀？“哦，这没什么好担心的，央行别无选择，只能继续刺激市场”.市场过于关注短期，忽视了过去 10 年量化宽松政策、货币实验和宽松利率带来的后果，以至于陷入了下一场危机。通货膨胀很重要，已经从金融资产跳到了实体经济。</blockquote> I should warn readers this morning’s porridge is going to be yet another of my irregular notes on how the Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) which began in 2007 is still with us.. We’re just moving on to a new stage… Enjoy Chapter 384 of&nbsp;The Fall of Money – The GFC: 2007-2031.<blockquote>我应该警告读者，今天早上的粥将是我关于始于 2007 年的全球金融危机（“GFC”）至今仍伴随着我们的又一次不定期的笔记。我们刚刚进入一个新的阶段.请欣赏《金钱的陨落》第 384 章--GFC：2007-2031。</blockquote> This morning – What inflation?<blockquote>今天早上——什么通货膨胀？</blockquote> Huh? Last week the market convinced itself inflation&nbsp;apparentlywasn’t an issue. Yield curves flattened, bonds tightened, and even though stocks were anticipating the best-ever-earnings-season, there was&nbsp;absolutely&nbsp;nothing to worry about in terms of rising prices… Apparently…<blockquote>嗯？上周市场确信通货膨胀显然不是问题。收益率曲线趋平，债券收紧，尽管股市预计将迎来有史以来最好的财报季，但绝对地就价格上涨而言，没什么好担心的……显然……</blockquote> Apparentlyand&nbsp;Absolutely&nbsp;are two very dangerous words in finance… They raise the likelihood you’ve got it completely wrong, ie:&nbsp;Apparently&nbsp;you couldn’t lose, but you did… Returns were&nbsp;Absolutelyguaranteed.. till the company went burst.<blockquote>显然和绝对地在金融领域，这两个词非常危险.它们会增加你完全搞错的可能性，即：显然你不可能输，但你输了……回报是绝对地保证..直到公司倒闭。</blockquote> As we’ve learn’t this morning UK Inflation has risen to 2.5% – raising the prospect of a letter from the Bank explaining why. The headline US CPI data yesterday was even stronger – 5.4% yoy, and 0.9% over the last month! That’s not quite Zimbabwe but… you get the drift… When it happens in Europe… well the Germans are going to have a monumental hissy fit. (Top investment tip: stay long wheelbarrows.)<blockquote>正如我们今天上午所了解到的那样，英国通胀率已升至 2.5%，这增加了英国央行发函解释原因的可能性。昨天的美国CPI数据更加强劲——同比上涨5.4%，上个月上涨0.9%!这不完全是津巴布韦，但是.当这种情况发生在欧洲时.德国人将会大发雷霆。（顶级投资提示：保持手推车做多。）</blockquote> Inflation matters. Its critical to bonds and long-term returns. The market should look like it’s been slapped with the Wet-Halibut of Rampant Inflation, but, it doesn’t seem to have learnt the lesson. This morning, the financial-commentariat is awash with analysis of how the Fed, BoE and ECB will all hold off from any hint of “taper” response to inflation, in order to keep frothy markets from collapsing.<blockquote>通货膨胀很重要。它对债券和长期回报至关重要。市场看起来应该像是被通货膨胀猖獗的湿比目鱼打了一巴掌，但它似乎并没有吸取教训。今天上午，财经评论员们纷纷分析美联储、英国央行和欧洲央行将如何抵制任何 “缩减 ”通胀应对措施的暗示，以防止泡沫市场崩溃。</blockquote> Fed-Watching used to be the delicate art of understanding the indecipherable nuances of Fed-Speak, forensically dissecting the commentary and numbers and drawing conclusions based on a clear understanding of what was left unsaid and the Fed’s mandate.<blockquote>观察美联储曾经是一门微妙的艺术，它要理解美联储言论中难以捉摸的细微差别，对评论和数字进行法医解剖，并在清楚地了解没有说出口的内容和美联储的任务的基础上得出结论。</blockquote> Not today.<blockquote>今天不行。</blockquote> Fed watching today is about understanding how Jerome Powell and his merry gang are now hamstrung and tripping over themselves about not spooking markets over rate rises, taper-talk or doing anything that might unwind what they’ve being doing the last 12 years – frothing markets with unlimited QE, inappropriate rates, regulation and spin.<blockquote>美联储今天关注的是理解杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）和他的快乐团伙现在是如何被束缚住了，因为他们不在加息、缩减规模言论或做任何可能放松他们过去12年来所做的事情--用无限制的量化宽松、不适当的利率、监管和旋转来刺激市场。</blockquote> The brutal reality is the Central Bankers,&nbsp;who are all honourable men and women, understand the levers they pull no longer function as they once did. Why? Well, these honourable men and women have broken the system as a consequence of their actions. Oops. Now they have no choice but to follow.. which means trouble ahead until the global financial system can be resolved.<blockquote>残酷的现实是央行行长，都是可敬的男男女女理解他们拉动的杠杆不再像以前那样发挥作用。为什么？这些可敬的男男女女因为他们的行为打破了这个体系。哎呀。现在他们别无选择，只能跟随..这意味着在全球金融体系得到解决之前，未来会有麻烦。</blockquote> The start reality is Central Banks have no answer to inflation except to hope and carry on. They are caught between the Scylla of Inflation and the Charybdis of a market collapse. Eek! Which is why so many analysts are confident the markets will win out and keep going higher – because central banks have little choice but to go with it and keep up the stimulus.<blockquote>最初的现实是，央行除了希望和继续前进之外，对通货膨胀没有答案。他们被夹在通货膨胀的锡拉和市场崩溃的卡律布狄斯之间。哎呀!这就是为什么如此多的分析师相信市场将会胜出并继续走高——因为央行别无选择，只能顺其自然并继续刺激。</blockquote> Most of the market is fixated on what the S&amp;P does this afternoon, what new high the NASDAQ will make this month, or where Amazon is going to top this quarter. They have the vision of a blind man when it comes to anything much beyond the end of their one-year time horizon. Even the bond market seems blind.<blockquote>大多数市场都关注标准普尔今天下午的表现、纳斯达克本月将创下什么新高，或者亚马逊本季度将在哪里名列前茅。当涉及到任何远远超出他们一年时间范围的事情时，他们有盲人的视力。就连债券市场似乎也是盲目的。</blockquote> The reality is investment should be about the long term. If you ignore the future in favour of short-term gains its makes it very easy to dismiss the evidence… that inflation is actually a very, very real issue..<blockquote>现实是投资应该是长期的。如果你为了短期收益而忽视未来，这就很容易忽视通货膨胀实际上是一个非常非常真实的问题..</blockquote> Lots of smart non-financial assets funds do understand that, and see just how horribly distorted markets have become. That’s why they are so keen to diversify out of corrupted financial assets and into real assets – the hot part of the market (and what I’ve been doing in Alternative Assets for the last 12 years.)<blockquote>许多聪明的非金融资产基金确实明白这一点，并且看到了市场已经变得多么可怕的扭曲。这就是为什么他们如此热衷于多元化投资，摆脱腐败的金融资产，转而投资实物资产--这是市场的热点（也是我过去 12 年来一直在做的另类资产）。</blockquote> Going back to inflation, the outlook is complex – another reason such a large part of the financial blogosphere is ignoring it. For instance; it’s possible to argue the rise in commodity prices is a factor of hoarding; manufacturers anticipating a surge Covid recovery and preparing for massive post-pandemic demand. The spikes in commodities from Copper to Lumber are now in reverse – supporting the market’s contention the inflation number is something of an overshoot.<blockquote>回到通货膨胀，前景是复杂的——这是金融博客圈如此大一部分人忽视它的另一个原因。例如；可以说，大宗商品价格上涨是囤积的一个因素；制造商预计新冠疫情将大幅复苏，并为大流行后的大规模需求做好准备。从铜到木材等大宗商品的飙升现在发生了逆转--这支持了市场关于通胀数字有点超调的论点。</blockquote> Oil is an outlier.OPEC is a monopoly price setter, but is going through yet another of its periodic organisational crisis resulting in a spike that’s proving difficult to hedge. Owning oil is not a pleasant outcome for anyone – as we saw last year when traders found themselves owning negative priced oil when storage was unavailable.<blockquote>石油是个例外。欧佩克是一个垄断性的价格制定者，但它正在经历另一场周期性的组织危机，导致价格飙升，事实证明很难对冲。拥有石油对任何人来说都不是一个令人愉快的结果——正如我们去年看到的那样，当交易员发现自己在无法储存的情况下拥有负价格的石油。</blockquote> Some of the important underlying trends in the economy – like used cars, where prices are rising. It hints that its details of specific inflation factors in each price that are important. Cars are a good example – we’re all aware of the global shortage of chips enabling car makers to cut production and create scarcity, pushing up new car prices, dragging second hand values higher as consumers seek alternatives. &nbsp;On the other hand – new car prices have been rising for years, with higher costs “justified” by the increasing amount of tech junk put into cars.. As the EU announces it will outlaw new ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles by 2040, I wonder if we are going to see a new counter-trend develop.<blockquote>经济中一些重要的潜在趋势——比如价格上涨的二手车。它暗示，每个价格中的具体通胀因素的细节很重要。汽车就是一个很好的例子--我们都知道全球芯片短缺，这使得汽车制造商不得不削减产量，造成短缺，推高了新车价格，随着消费者寻求替代品，推高了二手车价值。另一方面，新车价格多年来一直在上涨，而汽车中投入的科技垃圾数量不断增加，从而“证明”了更高的成本。随着欧盟宣布到 2040 年将取缔新的 ICE（内燃机）汽车，我想知道我们是否会看到新的反趋势发展。</blockquote> To explain, consider the Land Rover:<blockquote>要解释这一点，请考虑路虎：</blockquote> <ul> <li>A 10 year-old low milage, full service history, Range Rover in immaculate condition may be worth £16k. A 20 year battered Defender with zero documents is worth £32k! But you can fix it with Gaffa Tape, WD40 and a hammer. (If it moves and shouldn’t: Gaffa tape it. If it still moves; more Gaffa tape. If it doesn’t move: WD40 and persuade it with a hammer.)</li> </ul> However, inflation complacency may be the least of Central Bank worries. You may have spotted an increasing number of breathless articles from around the globe on House Price Inflation.<blockquote><ul><li>一辆 10 年的低里程、完整的服务历史、状况良好的路虎揽胜可能价值 16,000 英镑。一个被打了20年，没有证件的后卫值3.2万英镑!但是你可以用Gaffa胶带、WD40和锤子来修理。（如果它移动但不应该移动：用 Gaffa 胶带粘住它。如果它仍然移动，则用 Gaffa 胶带粘住它。如果它不动：WD40，并用锤子劝说它。）</li></ul>然而，通胀自满情绪可能是央行最不担心的。你可能已经发现了越来越多来自世界各地的关于房价通胀的令人窒息的文章。</blockquote> Everywhere on the planet the affluent classes – those with savings, who’ve done well from lockdown, and already on the property ladder – have been driving an uptick in property. Its debt fuelled and an illiquid market – no one sells till they see what they want to buy, and the ladder is actually a pyramid, with fewer assets on each successively higher rung.<blockquote>在全球范围内，富裕阶层--那些有积蓄、在封锁后表现良好、已经在房地产阶梯上的富裕阶层--一直在推动房地产价格的上涨。它的债务助长了一个缺乏流动性的市场——在看到自己想买什么之前，没有人会出售，而这个阶梯实际上是一个金字塔，每一级的资产都越来越少。</blockquote> The result is record home prices nearly everywhere. This week Powell and US Treasury Sec Janet Yellen are going to chat about it at the Financial Stability Oversight Council – a body setup post Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) in 2010 to identify excessive risks to the US Financial System. About time.. Housing is more frothy than 2007 according to the Case-Shiller US property value index. (Incidentally… so is just about any other market…but, I;ve said that many times before..)<blockquote>结果是几乎所有地方的房价都创下了历史新高。本周，鲍威尔和美国财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）将在金融稳定监督委员会（Financial Stability Oversight Council）上讨论这个问题。关于时间..根据凯斯-席勒美国房地产价值指数，房地产泡沫比2007年更大。（顺便说一句……其他市场也是如此……但是，我以前已经说过很多次了……）</blockquote> Rightly, Janet and Jerome are concerned a second housing bubble bursting could shake the foundations of finance… again. However, this time will be different. The housing market is not vulnerable to a massive number of low-credit-score mortgagees defaulting, but to a large number of affluent middle classes suddenly finding themselves financial stretched, on a rung of the ladder they can’t afford, and sitting on negative equity when the bubble bursts.<blockquote>珍妮特和杰罗姆理所当然地担心第二次房地产泡沫破裂可能会再次动摇金融的基础。然而，这一次会有所不同。房地产市场并不容易受到大量低信用评分抵押贷款者违约的影响，而是容易受到大量富裕中产阶级突然发现自己财务捉襟见肘、无力承担的阶梯上的影响，并在泡沫破裂时坐在负资产上。</blockquote> In the UK, we live with negative equity. In the US, you walk away. Whatever, these consumers consume less.<blockquote>在英国，我们生活在负资产中。在美国，你走开。不管怎样，这些消费者消费更少。</blockquote> The structure of the market has also changed. Banks don’t lend anymore. They broke their risks off to the investment sector. In the case of US mortgages – back to government through the Mortgage Backed Bond buyback schemes, and to the non-bank financial institutions than now finance, originate and service mortgages…<blockquote>市场的结构也发生了变化。银行不再放贷。他们把风险分摊给了投资部门。就美国抵押贷款而言——通过抵押贷款支持债券回购计划回归政府，并回归非银行金融机构，而不是现在为抵押贷款融资、发放和服务……</blockquote> This is going to be the really big problem of the next stage of the Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031.Real Assets! Smart money has been loading up on real assets on the basis they are decorrelated from the increasingly corrupted financial asset sector, but they reality is real assets from property, private equity, secured lending, aircraft, shipping, you-name-it, is now getting just as frothy as a result of all that inflation tied up in financial assets now spilling into the real economy…<blockquote>这将是2007-2031年全球金融危机下一阶段真正的大问题。真实资产!聪明的资金一直在大量购买实物资产，因为它们与日益腐败的金融资产行业脱钩，但它们的现实是来自房地产、私募股权、担保贷款、飞机、航运等等的实物资产，现在变得同样泡沫化，因为所有与金融资产相关的通货膨胀现在蔓延到实体经济中……</blockquote> Financial Asset Inflation has infected the real economy….<blockquote>金融资产通胀已经感染了实体经济…</blockquote> Time to think again… All these honourable men and women in Central Banks must dread Caesar’s ghost coming back to haunt the monetary experiment they started in 2010 going so badly wrong…<blockquote>是时候重新思考了.中央银行所有这些可敬的男男女女一定害怕凯撒的幽灵会卷土重来，困扰他们在 2010 年开始的货币实验，结果出了如此严重的差错.....</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation: The Next Stage Of The Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031<blockquote>通货膨胀：2007-2031年全球金融危机的下一阶段</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation: The Next Stage Of The Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031<blockquote>通货膨胀：2007-2031年全球金融危机的下一阶段</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-15 11:48\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones; so be it with Caesar.”<blockquote>“人所做的恶事会留在他们身后；善良的人往往会和他们的骸骨一起埋葬；凯撒也是如此。”</blockquote> What Inflation? “Oh, that’s nothing to worry about, the central banks have no choice but to keep juicing markets”… The market is so focused on the short-term and ignoring the consequences of the last 10 years of QE, monetary experimentation and easy rates, that its blundering into the next crisis. Inflation matters, and has jumped from financial assets into the real economy.<blockquote>什么通货膨胀？“哦，这没什么好担心的，央行别无选择，只能继续刺激市场”.市场过于关注短期，忽视了过去 10 年量化宽松政策、货币实验和宽松利率带来的后果，以至于陷入了下一场危机。通货膨胀很重要，已经从金融资产跳到了实体经济。</blockquote> I should warn readers this morning’s porridge is going to be yet another of my irregular notes on how the Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) which began in 2007 is still with us.. We’re just moving on to a new stage… Enjoy Chapter 384 of&nbsp;The Fall of Money – The GFC: 2007-2031.<blockquote>我应该警告读者，今天早上的粥将是我关于始于 2007 年的全球金融危机（“GFC”）至今仍伴随着我们的又一次不定期的笔记。我们刚刚进入一个新的阶段.请欣赏《金钱的陨落》第 384 章--GFC：2007-2031。</blockquote> This morning – What inflation?<blockquote>今天早上——什么通货膨胀？</blockquote> Huh? Last week the market convinced itself inflation&nbsp;apparentlywasn’t an issue. Yield curves flattened, bonds tightened, and even though stocks were anticipating the best-ever-earnings-season, there was&nbsp;absolutely&nbsp;nothing to worry about in terms of rising prices… Apparently…<blockquote>嗯？上周市场确信通货膨胀显然不是问题。收益率曲线趋平，债券收紧，尽管股市预计将迎来有史以来最好的财报季，但绝对地就价格上涨而言，没什么好担心的……显然……</blockquote> Apparentlyand&nbsp;Absolutely&nbsp;are two very dangerous words in finance… They raise the likelihood you’ve got it completely wrong, ie:&nbsp;Apparently&nbsp;you couldn’t lose, but you did… Returns were&nbsp;Absolutelyguaranteed.. till the company went burst.<blockquote>显然和绝对地在金融领域，这两个词非常危险.它们会增加你完全搞错的可能性，即：显然你不可能输，但你输了……回报是绝对地保证..直到公司倒闭。</blockquote> As we’ve learn’t this morning UK Inflation has risen to 2.5% – raising the prospect of a letter from the Bank explaining why. The headline US CPI data yesterday was even stronger – 5.4% yoy, and 0.9% over the last month! That’s not quite Zimbabwe but… you get the drift… When it happens in Europe… well the Germans are going to have a monumental hissy fit. (Top investment tip: stay long wheelbarrows.)<blockquote>正如我们今天上午所了解到的那样，英国通胀率已升至 2.5%，这增加了英国央行发函解释原因的可能性。昨天的美国CPI数据更加强劲——同比上涨5.4%，上个月上涨0.9%!这不完全是津巴布韦，但是.当这种情况发生在欧洲时.德国人将会大发雷霆。（顶级投资提示：保持手推车做多。）</blockquote> Inflation matters. Its critical to bonds and long-term returns. The market should look like it’s been slapped with the Wet-Halibut of Rampant Inflation, but, it doesn’t seem to have learnt the lesson. This morning, the financial-commentariat is awash with analysis of how the Fed, BoE and ECB will all hold off from any hint of “taper” response to inflation, in order to keep frothy markets from collapsing.<blockquote>通货膨胀很重要。它对债券和长期回报至关重要。市场看起来应该像是被通货膨胀猖獗的湿比目鱼打了一巴掌，但它似乎并没有吸取教训。今天上午，财经评论员们纷纷分析美联储、英国央行和欧洲央行将如何抵制任何 “缩减 ”通胀应对措施的暗示，以防止泡沫市场崩溃。</blockquote> Fed-Watching used to be the delicate art of understanding the indecipherable nuances of Fed-Speak, forensically dissecting the commentary and numbers and drawing conclusions based on a clear understanding of what was left unsaid and the Fed’s mandate.<blockquote>观察美联储曾经是一门微妙的艺术，它要理解美联储言论中难以捉摸的细微差别，对评论和数字进行法医解剖，并在清楚地了解没有说出口的内容和美联储的任务的基础上得出结论。</blockquote> Not today.<blockquote>今天不行。</blockquote> Fed watching today is about understanding how Jerome Powell and his merry gang are now hamstrung and tripping over themselves about not spooking markets over rate rises, taper-talk or doing anything that might unwind what they’ve being doing the last 12 years – frothing markets with unlimited QE, inappropriate rates, regulation and spin.<blockquote>美联储今天关注的是理解杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）和他的快乐团伙现在是如何被束缚住了，因为他们不在加息、缩减规模言论或做任何可能放松他们过去12年来所做的事情--用无限制的量化宽松、不适当的利率、监管和旋转来刺激市场。</blockquote> The brutal reality is the Central Bankers,&nbsp;who are all honourable men and women, understand the levers they pull no longer function as they once did. Why? Well, these honourable men and women have broken the system as a consequence of their actions. Oops. Now they have no choice but to follow.. which means trouble ahead until the global financial system can be resolved.<blockquote>残酷的现实是央行行长，都是可敬的男男女女理解他们拉动的杠杆不再像以前那样发挥作用。为什么？这些可敬的男男女女因为他们的行为打破了这个体系。哎呀。现在他们别无选择，只能跟随..这意味着在全球金融体系得到解决之前，未来会有麻烦。</blockquote> The start reality is Central Banks have no answer to inflation except to hope and carry on. They are caught between the Scylla of Inflation and the Charybdis of a market collapse. Eek! Which is why so many analysts are confident the markets will win out and keep going higher – because central banks have little choice but to go with it and keep up the stimulus.<blockquote>最初的现实是，央行除了希望和继续前进之外，对通货膨胀没有答案。他们被夹在通货膨胀的锡拉和市场崩溃的卡律布狄斯之间。哎呀!这就是为什么如此多的分析师相信市场将会胜出并继续走高——因为央行别无选择，只能顺其自然并继续刺激。</blockquote> Most of the market is fixated on what the S&amp;P does this afternoon, what new high the NASDAQ will make this month, or where Amazon is going to top this quarter. They have the vision of a blind man when it comes to anything much beyond the end of their one-year time horizon. Even the bond market seems blind.<blockquote>大多数市场都关注标准普尔今天下午的表现、纳斯达克本月将创下什么新高，或者亚马逊本季度将在哪里名列前茅。当涉及到任何远远超出他们一年时间范围的事情时，他们有盲人的视力。就连债券市场似乎也是盲目的。</blockquote> The reality is investment should be about the long term. If you ignore the future in favour of short-term gains its makes it very easy to dismiss the evidence… that inflation is actually a very, very real issue..<blockquote>现实是投资应该是长期的。如果你为了短期收益而忽视未来，这就很容易忽视通货膨胀实际上是一个非常非常真实的问题..</blockquote> Lots of smart non-financial assets funds do understand that, and see just how horribly distorted markets have become. That’s why they are so keen to diversify out of corrupted financial assets and into real assets – the hot part of the market (and what I’ve been doing in Alternative Assets for the last 12 years.)<blockquote>许多聪明的非金融资产基金确实明白这一点，并且看到了市场已经变得多么可怕的扭曲。这就是为什么他们如此热衷于多元化投资，摆脱腐败的金融资产，转而投资实物资产--这是市场的热点（也是我过去 12 年来一直在做的另类资产）。</blockquote> Going back to inflation, the outlook is complex – another reason such a large part of the financial blogosphere is ignoring it. For instance; it’s possible to argue the rise in commodity prices is a factor of hoarding; manufacturers anticipating a surge Covid recovery and preparing for massive post-pandemic demand. The spikes in commodities from Copper to Lumber are now in reverse – supporting the market’s contention the inflation number is something of an overshoot.<blockquote>回到通货膨胀，前景是复杂的——这是金融博客圈如此大一部分人忽视它的另一个原因。例如；可以说，大宗商品价格上涨是囤积的一个因素；制造商预计新冠疫情将大幅复苏，并为大流行后的大规模需求做好准备。从铜到木材等大宗商品的飙升现在发生了逆转--这支持了市场关于通胀数字有点超调的论点。</blockquote> Oil is an outlier.OPEC is a monopoly price setter, but is going through yet another of its periodic organisational crisis resulting in a spike that’s proving difficult to hedge. Owning oil is not a pleasant outcome for anyone – as we saw last year when traders found themselves owning negative priced oil when storage was unavailable.<blockquote>石油是个例外。欧佩克是一个垄断性的价格制定者，但它正在经历另一场周期性的组织危机，导致价格飙升，事实证明很难对冲。拥有石油对任何人来说都不是一个令人愉快的结果——正如我们去年看到的那样，当交易员发现自己在无法储存的情况下拥有负价格的石油。</blockquote> Some of the important underlying trends in the economy – like used cars, where prices are rising. It hints that its details of specific inflation factors in each price that are important. Cars are a good example – we’re all aware of the global shortage of chips enabling car makers to cut production and create scarcity, pushing up new car prices, dragging second hand values higher as consumers seek alternatives. &nbsp;On the other hand – new car prices have been rising for years, with higher costs “justified” by the increasing amount of tech junk put into cars.. As the EU announces it will outlaw new ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles by 2040, I wonder if we are going to see a new counter-trend develop.<blockquote>经济中一些重要的潜在趋势——比如价格上涨的二手车。它暗示，每个价格中的具体通胀因素的细节很重要。汽车就是一个很好的例子--我们都知道全球芯片短缺，这使得汽车制造商不得不削减产量，造成短缺，推高了新车价格，随着消费者寻求替代品，推高了二手车价值。另一方面，新车价格多年来一直在上涨，而汽车中投入的科技垃圾数量不断增加，从而“证明”了更高的成本。随着欧盟宣布到 2040 年将取缔新的 ICE（内燃机）汽车，我想知道我们是否会看到新的反趋势发展。</blockquote> To explain, consider the Land Rover:<blockquote>要解释这一点，请考虑路虎：</blockquote> <ul> <li>A 10 year-old low milage, full service history, Range Rover in immaculate condition may be worth £16k. A 20 year battered Defender with zero documents is worth £32k! But you can fix it with Gaffa Tape, WD40 and a hammer. (If it moves and shouldn’t: Gaffa tape it. If it still moves; more Gaffa tape. If it doesn’t move: WD40 and persuade it with a hammer.)</li> </ul> However, inflation complacency may be the least of Central Bank worries. You may have spotted an increasing number of breathless articles from around the globe on House Price Inflation.<blockquote><ul><li>一辆 10 年的低里程、完整的服务历史、状况良好的路虎揽胜可能价值 16,000 英镑。一个被打了20年，没有证件的后卫值3.2万英镑!但是你可以用Gaffa胶带、WD40和锤子来修理。（如果它移动但不应该移动：用 Gaffa 胶带粘住它。如果它仍然移动，则用 Gaffa 胶带粘住它。如果它不动：WD40，并用锤子劝说它。）</li></ul>然而，通胀自满情绪可能是央行最不担心的。你可能已经发现了越来越多来自世界各地的关于房价通胀的令人窒息的文章。</blockquote> Everywhere on the planet the affluent classes – those with savings, who’ve done well from lockdown, and already on the property ladder – have been driving an uptick in property. Its debt fuelled and an illiquid market – no one sells till they see what they want to buy, and the ladder is actually a pyramid, with fewer assets on each successively higher rung.<blockquote>在全球范围内，富裕阶层--那些有积蓄、在封锁后表现良好、已经在房地产阶梯上的富裕阶层--一直在推动房地产价格的上涨。它的债务助长了一个缺乏流动性的市场——在看到自己想买什么之前，没有人会出售，而这个阶梯实际上是一个金字塔，每一级的资产都越来越少。</blockquote> The result is record home prices nearly everywhere. This week Powell and US Treasury Sec Janet Yellen are going to chat about it at the Financial Stability Oversight Council – a body setup post Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) in 2010 to identify excessive risks to the US Financial System. About time.. Housing is more frothy than 2007 according to the Case-Shiller US property value index. (Incidentally… so is just about any other market…but, I;ve said that many times before..)<blockquote>结果是几乎所有地方的房价都创下了历史新高。本周，鲍威尔和美国财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）将在金融稳定监督委员会（Financial Stability Oversight Council）上讨论这个问题。关于时间..根据凯斯-席勒美国房地产价值指数，房地产泡沫比2007年更大。（顺便说一句……其他市场也是如此……但是，我以前已经说过很多次了……）</blockquote> Rightly, Janet and Jerome are concerned a second housing bubble bursting could shake the foundations of finance… again. However, this time will be different. The housing market is not vulnerable to a massive number of low-credit-score mortgagees defaulting, but to a large number of affluent middle classes suddenly finding themselves financial stretched, on a rung of the ladder they can’t afford, and sitting on negative equity when the bubble bursts.<blockquote>珍妮特和杰罗姆理所当然地担心第二次房地产泡沫破裂可能会再次动摇金融的基础。然而，这一次会有所不同。房地产市场并不容易受到大量低信用评分抵押贷款者违约的影响，而是容易受到大量富裕中产阶级突然发现自己财务捉襟见肘、无力承担的阶梯上的影响，并在泡沫破裂时坐在负资产上。</blockquote> In the UK, we live with negative equity. In the US, you walk away. Whatever, these consumers consume less.<blockquote>在英国，我们生活在负资产中。在美国，你走开。不管怎样，这些消费者消费更少。</blockquote> The structure of the market has also changed. Banks don’t lend anymore. They broke their risks off to the investment sector. In the case of US mortgages – back to government through the Mortgage Backed Bond buyback schemes, and to the non-bank financial institutions than now finance, originate and service mortgages…<blockquote>市场的结构也发生了变化。银行不再放贷。他们把风险分摊给了投资部门。就美国抵押贷款而言——通过抵押贷款支持债券回购计划回归政府，并回归非银行金融机构，而不是现在为抵押贷款融资、发放和服务……</blockquote> This is going to be the really big problem of the next stage of the Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031.Real Assets! Smart money has been loading up on real assets on the basis they are decorrelated from the increasingly corrupted financial asset sector, but they reality is real assets from property, private equity, secured lending, aircraft, shipping, you-name-it, is now getting just as frothy as a result of all that inflation tied up in financial assets now spilling into the real economy…<blockquote>这将是2007-2031年全球金融危机下一阶段真正的大问题。真实资产!聪明的资金一直在大量购买实物资产，因为它们与日益腐败的金融资产行业脱钩，但它们的现实是来自房地产、私募股权、担保贷款、飞机、航运等等的实物资产，现在变得同样泡沫化，因为所有与金融资产相关的通货膨胀现在蔓延到实体经济中……</blockquote> Financial Asset Inflation has infected the real economy….<blockquote>金融资产通胀已经感染了实体经济…</blockquote> Time to think again… All these honourable men and women in Central Banks must dread Caesar’s ghost coming back to haunt the monetary experiment they started in 2010 going so badly wrong…<blockquote>是时候重新思考了.中央银行所有这些可敬的男男女女一定害怕凯撒的幽灵会卷土重来，困扰他们在 2010 年开始的货币实验，结果出了如此严重的差错.....</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-next-stage-global-financial-crisis-2007-2031\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-next-stage-global-financial-crisis-2007-2031","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122873304","content_text":"“The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones; so be it with Caesar.”\nWhat Inflation? “Oh, that’s nothing to worry about, the central banks have no choice but to keep juicing markets”… The market is so focused on the short-term and ignoring the consequences of the last 10 years of QE, monetary experimentation and easy rates, that its blundering into the next crisis. Inflation matters, and has jumped from financial assets into the real economy.\nI should warn readers this morning’s porridge is going to be yet another of my irregular notes on how the Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) which began in 2007 is still with us.. We’re just moving on to a new stage… Enjoy Chapter 384 of The Fall of Money – The GFC: 2007-2031.\nThis morning – What inflation?\nHuh? Last week the market convinced itself inflation apparentlywasn’t an issue. Yield curves flattened, bonds tightened, and even though stocks were anticipating the best-ever-earnings-season, there was absolutely nothing to worry about in terms of rising prices… Apparently…\nApparentlyand Absolutely are two very dangerous words in finance… They raise the likelihood you’ve got it completely wrong, ie: Apparently you couldn’t lose, but you did… Returns were Absolutelyguaranteed.. till the company went burst.\nAs we’ve learn’t this morning UK Inflation has risen to 2.5% – raising the prospect of a letter from the Bank explaining why. The headline US CPI data yesterday was even stronger – 5.4% yoy, and 0.9% over the last month! That’s not quite Zimbabwe but… you get the drift… When it happens in Europe… well the Germans are going to have a monumental hissy fit. (Top investment tip: stay long wheelbarrows.)\nInflation matters. Its critical to bonds and long-term returns. The market should look like it’s been slapped with the Wet-Halibut of Rampant Inflation, but, it doesn’t seem to have learnt the lesson. This morning, the financial-commentariat is awash with analysis of how the Fed, BoE and ECB will all hold off from any hint of “taper” response to inflation, in order to keep frothy markets from collapsing.\nFed-Watching used to be the delicate art of understanding the indecipherable nuances of Fed-Speak, forensically dissecting the commentary and numbers and drawing conclusions based on a clear understanding of what was left unsaid and the Fed’s mandate.\nNot today.\nFed watching today is about understanding how Jerome Powell and his merry gang are now hamstrung and tripping over themselves about not spooking markets over rate rises, taper-talk or doing anything that might unwind what they’ve being doing the last 12 years – frothing markets with unlimited QE, inappropriate rates, regulation and spin.\nThe brutal reality is the Central Bankers, who are all honourable men and women, understand the levers they pull no longer function as they once did. Why? Well, these honourable men and women have broken the system as a consequence of their actions. Oops. Now they have no choice but to follow.. which means trouble ahead until the global financial system can be resolved.\nThe start reality is Central Banks have no answer to inflation except to hope and carry on. They are caught between the Scylla of Inflation and the Charybdis of a market collapse. Eek! Which is why so many analysts are confident the markets will win out and keep going higher – because central banks have little choice but to go with it and keep up the stimulus.\nMost of the market is fixated on what the S&P does this afternoon, what new high the NASDAQ will make this month, or where Amazon is going to top this quarter. They have the vision of a blind man when it comes to anything much beyond the end of their one-year time horizon. Even the bond market seems blind.\nThe reality is investment should be about the long term. If you ignore the future in favour of short-term gains its makes it very easy to dismiss the evidence… that inflation is actually a very, very real issue..\nLots of smart non-financial assets funds do understand that, and see just how horribly distorted markets have become. That’s why they are so keen to diversify out of corrupted financial assets and into real assets – the hot part of the market (and what I’ve been doing in Alternative Assets for the last 12 years.)\nGoing back to inflation, the outlook is complex – another reason such a large part of the financial blogosphere is ignoring it. For instance; it’s possible to argue the rise in commodity prices is a factor of hoarding; manufacturers anticipating a surge Covid recovery and preparing for massive post-pandemic demand. The spikes in commodities from Copper to Lumber are now in reverse – supporting the market’s contention the inflation number is something of an overshoot.\nOil is an outlier.OPEC is a monopoly price setter, but is going through yet another of its periodic organisational crisis resulting in a spike that’s proving difficult to hedge. Owning oil is not a pleasant outcome for anyone – as we saw last year when traders found themselves owning negative priced oil when storage was unavailable.\nSome of the important underlying trends in the economy – like used cars, where prices are rising. It hints that its details of specific inflation factors in each price that are important. Cars are a good example – we’re all aware of the global shortage of chips enabling car makers to cut production and create scarcity, pushing up new car prices, dragging second hand values higher as consumers seek alternatives.  On the other hand – new car prices have been rising for years, with higher costs “justified” by the increasing amount of tech junk put into cars.. As the EU announces it will outlaw new ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles by 2040, I wonder if we are going to see a new counter-trend develop.\nTo explain, consider the Land Rover:\n\nA 10 year-old low milage, full service history, Range Rover in immaculate condition may be worth £16k. A 20 year battered Defender with zero documents is worth £32k! But you can fix it with Gaffa Tape, WD40 and a hammer. (If it moves and shouldn’t: Gaffa tape it. If it still moves; more Gaffa tape. If it doesn’t move: WD40 and persuade it with a hammer.)\n\nHowever, inflation complacency may be the least of Central Bank worries. You may have spotted an increasing number of breathless articles from around the globe on House Price Inflation.\nEverywhere on the planet the affluent classes – those with savings, who’ve done well from lockdown, and already on the property ladder – have been driving an uptick in property. Its debt fuelled and an illiquid market – no one sells till they see what they want to buy, and the ladder is actually a pyramid, with fewer assets on each successively higher rung.\nThe result is record home prices nearly everywhere. This week Powell and US Treasury Sec Janet Yellen are going to chat about it at the Financial Stability Oversight Council – a body setup post Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) in 2010 to identify excessive risks to the US Financial System. About time.. Housing is more frothy than 2007 according to the Case-Shiller US property value index. (Incidentally… so is just about any other market…but, I;ve said that many times before..)\nRightly, Janet and Jerome are concerned a second housing bubble bursting could shake the foundations of finance… again. However, this time will be different. The housing market is not vulnerable to a massive number of low-credit-score mortgagees defaulting, but to a large number of affluent middle classes suddenly finding themselves financial stretched, on a rung of the ladder they can’t afford, and sitting on negative equity when the bubble bursts.\nIn the UK, we live with negative equity. In the US, you walk away. Whatever, these consumers consume less.\nThe structure of the market has also changed. Banks don’t lend anymore. They broke their risks off to the investment sector. In the case of US mortgages – back to government through the Mortgage Backed Bond buyback schemes, and to the non-bank financial institutions than now finance, originate and service mortgages…\nThis is going to be the really big problem of the next stage of the Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031.Real Assets! Smart money has been loading up on real assets on the basis they are decorrelated from the increasingly corrupted financial asset sector, but they reality is real assets from property, private equity, secured lending, aircraft, shipping, you-name-it, is now getting just as frothy as a result of all that inflation tied up in financial assets now spilling into the real economy…\nFinancial Asset Inflation has infected the real economy….\nTime to think again… All these honourable men and women in Central Banks must dread Caesar’s ghost coming back to haunt the monetary experiment they started in 2010 going so badly wrong…","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1102,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/147966376"}