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2021-07-16

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Expect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record<blockquote>这位拥有良好业绩记录的预测者表示，预计到8月中旬美国股市将出现10%或更糟的调整</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":147444971,"tweetId":"147444971","gmtCreate":1626388615593,"gmtModify":1633927334609,"author":{"id":3556144692243777,"idStr":"3556144692243777","authorId":3556144692243777,"authorIdStr":"3556144692243777","name":"Dynamism","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9d6b46a7676559e8a7f6dec3c91c10","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":28,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Comment</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Comment</body></html>","text":"Comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147444971","repostId":1165176874,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165176874","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626387247,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165176874?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 06:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record<blockquote>这位拥有良好业绩记录的预测者表示，预计到8月中旬美国股市将出现10%或更糟的调整</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165176874","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market breadth hasn’t been this poor since October 2018 and the start of a 20%-plus decline.Get ready for the most severe correction since the bull market began in March 2020.To be sure, predictions are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. But this one comes from Hayes Martin, president of investment advisory firmMarket Extremes. I was introduced to Martin’s work several years ago and since then I’ve found his predictions of market turning points to be impressive. . I devoted two columns to Martin’s f","content":" Market breadth hasn’t been this poor since October 2018 and the start of a 20%-plus decline. Get ready for the most severe correction since the bull market began in March 2020.<blockquote>自2018年10月开始下跌20%以上以来，市场广度从未如此糟糕。准备好迎接自2020年3月牛市开始以来最严重的调整吧。</blockquote> To be sure, predictions are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. But this one comes from Hayes Martin, president of investment advisory firmMarket Extremes. I was introduced to Martin’s work several years ago and since then I’ve found his predictions of market turning points to be impressive. (For the record: Martin does not have an investment newsletter; my newsletter-tracking firm does not audit his investment performance.)<blockquote>可以肯定的是，华尔街的预测多如牛毛。但这句话来自投资咨询公司Market Extremes的总裁海耶斯·马丁(Hayes Martin)。几年前，我被介绍给马丁的工作，从那以后，我发现他对市场转折点的预测令人印象深刻。（郑重声明：马丁没有投资通讯；我的通讯跟踪公司不会审计他的投资业绩。）</blockquote> I devoted two columns to Martin’s forecasts over the past year, and both proved prescient. In May 2020, I concluded that “the stock market… is stronger than even the most bullish investors believe.” In January of this year, I wrote that the market was still “firing on all cylinders.”<blockquote>在过去的一年里，我专门写了两篇专栏文章来讨论马丁的预测，两篇文章都被证明是有先见之明的。2020年5月，我得出的结论是“股市……比最看涨的投资者想象的还要强劲。”今年1月，我写道，市场仍在“火力全开”。</blockquote> In an interview on July 14, Martin said the U.S. stock market today is most definitely not firing on all cylinders. In fact, he said, the market’s internal health is now worse than at any time since October 2018. That was the beginning of a 20% decline in the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.33%and a 26% decline in the small-cap Russell 2000 IndexRUT,-0.55%.(Martin anticipated that decline as well; seemy Oct. 4, 2018, column.)<blockquote>马丁在7月14日接受采访时表示，今天的美国股市绝对没有全力以赴。他表示，事实上，市场的内部健康状况现在比2018年10月以来的任何时候都要糟糕。这是标准普尔500SPX下跌20%（-0.33%）和小盘股罗素2000指数RUT下跌26%（-0.55%）的开始。（马丁也预料到了这种下跌；见2018年10月4日，专栏。）</blockquote> Martin hastened to add that the market’s internal health is not as bad today as it was in 2018. This time around, he is forecasting a decline of 10% or more for the leading U.S. stock indexes. As for timing, he says that the decline could begin at any time, but he anticipates that it will begin no later than mid-August.<blockquote>马丁赶紧补充道，如今市场的内部健康状况并不像2018年那么糟糕。这一次，他预测美国主要股指将下跌10%或更多。至于时机，他表示下跌可能随时开始，但他预计最迟不会在八月中旬开始。</blockquote> The source of the market’s ill-health<blockquote>市场不健康的根源</blockquote> Martin bases his sobering forecast on the increasing divergences within the U.S. market, as indicated by fewer and fewer stocks participating in the headline-grabbing strength of the leading indices. One indicator of these divergences is the growing number of stocks hitting new lows, for example. On Wednesday of this week, for example, even as the Nasdaq 100NDX,-0.71%and the S&amp;P 100OEX,-0.37%indexes were hitting new highs, many sectors were registering a plurality of new lows.<blockquote>马丁的发人深省的预测是基于美国市场内部日益扩大的分歧，正如越来越少的股票参与领先指数的头条新闻所表明的那样。例如，这些分歧的一个指标是越来越多的股票创下新低。例如，本周三，尽管纳斯达克100NDX,-0.71%和标准普尔100OEX,-0.37%指数创下新高，但许多板块却创下多个新低。</blockquote> This was particularly evident in the small- and mid-cap sectors, as represented by the Russell 2000 index. On July 13 there were more new lows than new highs within that index for the second consecutive day. In Martin’s data for the Russell 2000’s new highs and new lows, which extends back to June 2000, what happened this week has happened only three other times — in September 2014, July 2015 and October 2018. In all three cases, three months later both the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 were at least 10% lower.<blockquote>这在以罗素2000指数为代表的中小型股板块中尤为明显。7月13日，该指数连续第二天新低多于新高。在马丁关于罗素2000指数新高和新低的数据中，可以追溯到2000年6月，本周发生的事情只发生过三次——2014年9月、2015年7月和2018年10月。在这三种情况下，三个月后，标普500和罗素2000指数都下跌了至少10%。</blockquote> Martin reports that the only area of the market not showing dangerous divergences right now is the large-cap dominated S&amp;P 500. Except for that sector, he says that the “stock market’s current internals are some of the worst I’ve seen in decades.”<blockquote>Martin报告称，目前市场上唯一没有显示出危险分歧的领域是大盘股主导的标普500。他表示，除了该行业之外，“股市目前的内部情况是我几十年来见过的最糟糕的。”</blockquote> Martin added that these severe divergences are occurring as equities are severely overvalued — with some stocks in bubble territory. This means that, when the market does decline, it’s likely to fall more than it would otherwise.<blockquote>马丁补充说，这些严重分歧的发生是因为股市被严重高估——一些股票处于泡沫区域。这意味着，当市场确实下跌时，它的跌幅可能会比其他情况下更大。</blockquote> Adding fuel to the fire, he continued, is the too-bullish investor sentiment that prevails right now. As contrarians remind us, such sentiment extremes mean that the path of least resistance for the market is down.<blockquote>他继续说，火上浇油的是目前普遍存在的过于乐观的投资者情绪。正如逆向投资者提醒我们的那样，这种极端情绪意味着市场阻力最小的路径是下跌。</blockquote> To be sure, Martin concluded, stocks have been overvalued for some time now, and bullish sentiment has been at or close to extremes. The missing piece was market divergences. That piece is now in place.<blockquote>马丁总结道，可以肯定的是，股票被高估已经有一段时间了，看涨情绪已经达到或接近极端。缺失的部分是市场分歧。那块现在就位了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record<blockquote>这位拥有良好业绩记录的预测者表示，预计到8月中旬美国股市将出现10%或更糟的调整</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record<blockquote>这位拥有良好业绩记录的预测者表示，预计到8月中旬美国股市将出现10%或更糟的调整</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-16 06:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market breadth hasn’t been this poor since October 2018 and the start of a 20%-plus decline. Get ready for the most severe correction since the bull market began in March 2020.<blockquote>自2018年10月开始下跌20%以上以来，市场广度从未如此糟糕。准备好迎接自2020年3月牛市开始以来最严重的调整吧。</blockquote> To be sure, predictions are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. But this one comes from Hayes Martin, president of investment advisory firmMarket Extremes. I was introduced to Martin’s work several years ago and since then I’ve found his predictions of market turning points to be impressive. (For the record: Martin does not have an investment newsletter; my newsletter-tracking firm does not audit his investment performance.)<blockquote>可以肯定的是，华尔街的预测多如牛毛。但这句话来自投资咨询公司Market Extremes的总裁海耶斯·马丁(Hayes Martin)。几年前，我被介绍给马丁的工作，从那以后，我发现他对市场转折点的预测令人印象深刻。（郑重声明：马丁没有投资通讯；我的通讯跟踪公司不会审计他的投资业绩。）</blockquote> I devoted two columns to Martin’s forecasts over the past year, and both proved prescient. In May 2020, I concluded that “the stock market… is stronger than even the most bullish investors believe.” In January of this year, I wrote that the market was still “firing on all cylinders.”<blockquote>在过去的一年里，我专门写了两篇专栏文章来讨论马丁的预测，两篇文章都被证明是有先见之明的。2020年5月，我得出的结论是“股市……比最看涨的投资者想象的还要强劲。”今年1月，我写道，市场仍在“火力全开”。</blockquote> In an interview on July 14, Martin said the U.S. stock market today is most definitely not firing on all cylinders. In fact, he said, the market’s internal health is now worse than at any time since October 2018. That was the beginning of a 20% decline in the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.33%and a 26% decline in the small-cap Russell 2000 IndexRUT,-0.55%.(Martin anticipated that decline as well; seemy Oct. 4, 2018, column.)<blockquote>马丁在7月14日接受采访时表示，今天的美国股市绝对没有全力以赴。他表示，事实上，市场的内部健康状况现在比2018年10月以来的任何时候都要糟糕。这是标准普尔500SPX下跌20%（-0.33%）和小盘股罗素2000指数RUT下跌26%（-0.55%）的开始。（马丁也预料到了这种下跌；见2018年10月4日，专栏。）</blockquote> Martin hastened to add that the market’s internal health is not as bad today as it was in 2018. This time around, he is forecasting a decline of 10% or more for the leading U.S. stock indexes. As for timing, he says that the decline could begin at any time, but he anticipates that it will begin no later than mid-August.<blockquote>马丁赶紧补充道，如今市场的内部健康状况并不像2018年那么糟糕。这一次，他预测美国主要股指将下跌10%或更多。至于时机，他表示下跌可能随时开始，但他预计最迟不会在八月中旬开始。</blockquote> The source of the market’s ill-health<blockquote>市场不健康的根源</blockquote> Martin bases his sobering forecast on the increasing divergences within the U.S. market, as indicated by fewer and fewer stocks participating in the headline-grabbing strength of the leading indices. One indicator of these divergences is the growing number of stocks hitting new lows, for example. On Wednesday of this week, for example, even as the Nasdaq 100NDX,-0.71%and the S&amp;P 100OEX,-0.37%indexes were hitting new highs, many sectors were registering a plurality of new lows.<blockquote>马丁的发人深省的预测是基于美国市场内部日益扩大的分歧，正如越来越少的股票参与领先指数的头条新闻所表明的那样。例如，这些分歧的一个指标是越来越多的股票创下新低。例如，本周三，尽管纳斯达克100NDX,-0.71%和标准普尔100OEX,-0.37%指数创下新高，但许多板块却创下多个新低。</blockquote> This was particularly evident in the small- and mid-cap sectors, as represented by the Russell 2000 index. On July 13 there were more new lows than new highs within that index for the second consecutive day. In Martin’s data for the Russell 2000’s new highs and new lows, which extends back to June 2000, what happened this week has happened only three other times — in September 2014, July 2015 and October 2018. In all three cases, three months later both the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 were at least 10% lower.<blockquote>这在以罗素2000指数为代表的中小型股板块中尤为明显。7月13日，该指数连续第二天新低多于新高。在马丁关于罗素2000指数新高和新低的数据中，可以追溯到2000年6月，本周发生的事情只发生过三次——2014年9月、2015年7月和2018年10月。在这三种情况下，三个月后，标普500和罗素2000指数都下跌了至少10%。</blockquote> Martin reports that the only area of the market not showing dangerous divergences right now is the large-cap dominated S&amp;P 500. Except for that sector, he says that the “stock market’s current internals are some of the worst I’ve seen in decades.”<blockquote>Martin报告称，目前市场上唯一没有显示出危险分歧的领域是大盘股主导的标普500。他表示，除了该行业之外，“股市目前的内部情况是我几十年来见过的最糟糕的。”</blockquote> Martin added that these severe divergences are occurring as equities are severely overvalued — with some stocks in bubble territory. This means that, when the market does decline, it’s likely to fall more than it would otherwise.<blockquote>马丁补充说，这些严重分歧的发生是因为股市被严重高估——一些股票处于泡沫区域。这意味着，当市场确实下跌时，它的跌幅可能会比其他情况下更大。</blockquote> Adding fuel to the fire, he continued, is the too-bullish investor sentiment that prevails right now. As contrarians remind us, such sentiment extremes mean that the path of least resistance for the market is down.<blockquote>他继续说，火上浇油的是目前普遍存在的过于乐观的投资者情绪。正如逆向投资者提醒我们的那样，这种极端情绪意味着市场阻力最小的路径是下跌。</blockquote> To be sure, Martin concluded, stocks have been overvalued for some time now, and bullish sentiment has been at or close to extremes. The missing piece was market divergences. That piece is now in place.<blockquote>马丁总结道，可以肯定的是，股票被高估已经有一段时间了，看涨情绪已经达到或接近极端。缺失的部分是市场分歧。那块现在就位了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-10-correction-in-u-s-stocks-by-mid-august-says-this-forecaster-with-a-proven-track-record-11626380633?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-10-correction-in-u-s-stocks-by-mid-august-says-this-forecaster-with-a-proven-track-record-11626380633?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165176874","content_text":"Market breadth hasn’t been this poor since October 2018 and the start of a 20%-plus decline.\n\nGet ready for the most severe correction since the bull market began in March 2020.\nTo be sure, predictions are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. But this one comes from Hayes Martin, president of investment advisory firmMarket Extremes. I was introduced to Martin’s work several years ago and since then I’ve found his predictions of market turning points to be impressive. (For the record: Martin does not have an investment newsletter; my newsletter-tracking firm does not audit his investment performance.)\nI devoted two columns to Martin’s forecasts over the past year, and both proved prescient. In May 2020, I concluded that “the stock market… is stronger than even the most bullish investors believe.” In January of this year, I wrote that the market was still “firing on all cylinders.”\nIn an interview on July 14, Martin said the U.S. stock market today is most definitely not firing on all cylinders. In fact, he said, the market’s internal health is now worse than at any time since October 2018. That was the beginning of a 20% decline in the S&P 500SPX,-0.33%and a 26% decline in the small-cap Russell 2000 IndexRUT,-0.55%.(Martin anticipated that decline as well; seemy Oct. 4, 2018, column.)\nMartin hastened to add that the market’s internal health is not as bad today as it was in 2018. This time around, he is forecasting a decline of 10% or more for the leading U.S. stock indexes. As for timing, he says that the decline could begin at any time, but he anticipates that it will begin no later than mid-August.\nThe source of the market’s ill-health\nMartin bases his sobering forecast on the increasing divergences within the U.S. market, as indicated by fewer and fewer stocks participating in the headline-grabbing strength of the leading indices. One indicator of these divergences is the growing number of stocks hitting new lows, for example. On Wednesday of this week, for example, even as the Nasdaq 100NDX,-0.71%and the S&P 100OEX,-0.37%indexes were hitting new highs, many sectors were registering a plurality of new lows.\nThis was particularly evident in the small- and mid-cap sectors, as represented by the Russell 2000 index. On July 13 there were more new lows than new highs within that index for the second consecutive day. In Martin’s data for the Russell 2000’s new highs and new lows, which extends back to June 2000, what happened this week has happened only three other times — in September 2014, July 2015 and October 2018. In all three cases, three months later both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 were at least 10% lower.\nMartin reports that the only area of the market not showing dangerous divergences right now is the large-cap dominated S&P 500. Except for that sector, he says that the “stock market’s current internals are some of the worst I’ve seen in decades.”\nMartin added that these severe divergences are occurring as equities are severely overvalued — with some stocks in bubble territory. This means that, when the market does decline, it’s likely to fall more than it would otherwise.\nAdding fuel to the fire, he continued, is the too-bullish investor sentiment that prevails right now. As contrarians remind us, such sentiment extremes mean that the path of least resistance for the market is down.\nTo be sure, Martin concluded, stocks have been overvalued for some time now, and bullish sentiment has been at or close to extremes. The missing piece was market divergences. That piece is now in place.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":444,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/147444971"}