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2021-07-15

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Course Reversal: When And Where Will The Treasury Make Coupon Cuts<blockquote>方向逆转：财政部何时何地削减息票</blockquote>

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An area rates traders will be closely focused on is the potential cuts to coupon issuance –when, how big, and what maturities?<blockquote>本周五，财政部将在中午发布一级交易商调查问卷，开始即将召开的季度退款会议。利率交易者将密切关注的一个领域是息票发行的潜在削减——什么时候，多大，什么期限？</blockquote> Such a move would represent a material reversal to a long-running trend: As DB's Steven Zend reminds us, between April and November 2020, the Treasury rapidly raised issuance sizes for coupon securities, taking gross monthly sales from around $225BN before Covid to currently around $370BN. As a result, at the current juncture, and absent any future fiscal \"shocks\", the Treasury stands to be overfinanced in the next few years.<blockquote>此举将代表着长期趋势的重大逆转：正如DB的Steven Zend提醒我们的那样，2020年4月至11月期间，财政部迅速提高了息票证券的发行规模，将月总销售额从新冠疫情爆发前的约2250亿美元增至目前的约3700亿美元。因此，在目前的关头，如果未来没有任何财政“冲击”，财政部将在未来几年过度融资。</blockquote> This month, the CBO updated its baseline long-term deficit projections. As noted previously, relative to its March projections, the Congressional beancounters now project smaller deficits due to higher revenues from a stronger economy. As a result, after 2021,deficits are expected to fall significantly and average $1.2 trillion annually.In comparison, the Treasury’s coupon financing capacity looks too big, and according to Zeng's estimates it will generate $2.6 trillion in net issuance in FY2022, $2.2 trillion in FY2023, and $1.8 trillion in FY2024. All else equal, this suggeststhere is room to reduce coupon issuance as soon as this year and by half a trillion or more per year in the first two years.<blockquote>本月，CBO更新了其基线长期赤字预测。如前所述，相对于3月份的预测，国会预算官员现在预计，由于经济走强带来的收入增加，赤字将会减少。结果2021年之后，赤字预计将大幅下降，平均每年1.2万亿美元。相比之下，财政部的息票融资能力看起来太大了，根据曾的估计，2022财年将产生2.6万亿美元的净发行量，2023财年为2.2万亿美元，2024财年为1.8万亿美元。在其他条件相同的情况下，这表明最快今年就有减少优惠券发行的空间，前两年每年减少5000亿或更多。</blockquote> So how should these cuts be allocated?<blockquote>那么这些削减应该如何分配呢？</blockquote> Answering this question, Zeng writes that reducing the issuance of short maturities has the benefit of allowing the Treasury to extend the average maturity of its debt and reduce future rollover risk. But cutting the long-end may be needed to address liquidity issues that have arisen with last year’s size increases, particularly in the 20yr sector. Additionally, large cuts to the long-end could also have market implications. Depending on the amount the Treasury ultimately decides, the DB strategists concludes that cuts could be allocated across the curve but skew to the long-end.<blockquote>在回答这个问题时，曾写道，减少短期债券的发行可以让财政部延长其债务的平均期限并降低未来的展期风险。但可能需要削减长期债券，以解决去年规模增长带来的流动性问题，特别是在20年期行业。此外，长期大幅削减也可能对市场产生影响。根据财政部最终决定的金额，DB策略师得出的结论是，削减可以在整个曲线上分配，但会偏向长期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86e3bad4a92b999dc07b463340feffab\" tg-width=\"702\" tg-height=\"388\">In any case, while the upcoming refunding is too early for this to happen, the Treasury will send a strong signal if it has these cuts planned for November, which Zeng thinks is realistic.<blockquote>无论如何，虽然即将到来的退款还为时过早，但如果财政部计划在11月份进行这些削减，将发出一个强烈的信号，曾认为这是现实的。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Course Reversal: When And Where Will The Treasury Make Coupon Cuts<blockquote>方向逆转：财政部何时何地削减息票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCourse Reversal: When And Where Will The Treasury Make Coupon Cuts<blockquote>方向逆转：财政部何时何地削减息票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-15 08:45\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThis Friday, the Treasury will kick start its upcoming quarterly refunding meeting with the release of the primary dealer questionnaire at noon. An area rates traders will be closely focused on is the potential cuts to coupon issuance –when, how big, and what maturities?<blockquote>本周五，财政部将在中午发布一级交易商调查问卷，开始即将召开的季度退款会议。利率交易者将密切关注的一个领域是息票发行的潜在削减——什么时候，多大，什么期限？</blockquote> Such a move would represent a material reversal to a long-running trend: As DB's Steven Zend reminds us, between April and November 2020, the Treasury rapidly raised issuance sizes for coupon securities, taking gross monthly sales from around $225BN before Covid to currently around $370BN. As a result, at the current juncture, and absent any future fiscal \"shocks\", the Treasury stands to be overfinanced in the next few years.<blockquote>此举将代表着长期趋势的重大逆转：正如DB的Steven Zend提醒我们的那样，2020年4月至11月期间，财政部迅速提高了息票证券的发行规模，将月总销售额从新冠疫情爆发前的约2250亿美元增至目前的约3700亿美元。因此，在目前的关头，如果未来没有任何财政“冲击”，财政部将在未来几年过度融资。</blockquote> This month, the CBO updated its baseline long-term deficit projections. As noted previously, relative to its March projections, the Congressional beancounters now project smaller deficits due to higher revenues from a stronger economy. As a result, after 2021,deficits are expected to fall significantly and average $1.2 trillion annually.In comparison, the Treasury’s coupon financing capacity looks too big, and according to Zeng's estimates it will generate $2.6 trillion in net issuance in FY2022, $2.2 trillion in FY2023, and $1.8 trillion in FY2024. All else equal, this suggeststhere is room to reduce coupon issuance as soon as this year and by half a trillion or more per year in the first two years.<blockquote>本月，CBO更新了其基线长期赤字预测。如前所述，相对于3月份的预测，国会预算官员现在预计，由于经济走强带来的收入增加，赤字将会减少。结果2021年之后，赤字预计将大幅下降，平均每年1.2万亿美元。相比之下，财政部的息票融资能力看起来太大了，根据曾的估计，2022财年将产生2.6万亿美元的净发行量，2023财年为2.2万亿美元，2024财年为1.8万亿美元。在其他条件相同的情况下，这表明最快今年就有减少优惠券发行的空间，前两年每年减少5000亿或更多。</blockquote> So how should these cuts be allocated?<blockquote>那么这些削减应该如何分配呢？</blockquote> Answering this question, Zeng writes that reducing the issuance of short maturities has the benefit of allowing the Treasury to extend the average maturity of its debt and reduce future rollover risk. But cutting the long-end may be needed to address liquidity issues that have arisen with last year’s size increases, particularly in the 20yr sector. Additionally, large cuts to the long-end could also have market implications. Depending on the amount the Treasury ultimately decides, the DB strategists concludes that cuts could be allocated across the curve but skew to the long-end.<blockquote>在回答这个问题时，曾写道，减少短期债券的发行可以让财政部延长其债务的平均期限并降低未来的展期风险。但可能需要削减长期债券，以解决去年规模增长带来的流动性问题，特别是在20年期行业。此外，长期大幅削减也可能对市场产生影响。根据财政部最终决定的金额，DB策略师得出的结论是，削减可以在整个曲线上分配，但会偏向长期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86e3bad4a92b999dc07b463340feffab\" tg-width=\"702\" tg-height=\"388\">In any case, while the upcoming refunding is too early for this to happen, the Treasury will send a strong signal if it has these cuts planned for November, which Zeng thinks is realistic.<blockquote>无论如何，虽然即将到来的退款还为时过早，但如果财政部计划在11月份进行这些削减，将发出一个强烈的信号，曾认为这是现实的。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/course-reversal-when-and-where-will-treasury-make-coupon-cuts\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/course-reversal-when-and-where-will-treasury-make-coupon-cuts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171796369","content_text":"This Friday, the Treasury will kick start its upcoming quarterly refunding meeting with the release of the primary dealer questionnaire at noon. An area rates traders will be closely focused on is the potential cuts to coupon issuance –when, how big, and what maturities?\nSuch a move would represent a material reversal to a long-running trend: As DB's Steven Zend reminds us, between April and November 2020, the Treasury rapidly raised issuance sizes for coupon securities, taking gross monthly sales from around $225BN before Covid to currently around $370BN. As a result, at the current juncture, and absent any future fiscal \"shocks\", the Treasury stands to be overfinanced in the next few years.\nThis month, the CBO updated its baseline long-term deficit projections. As noted previously, relative to its March projections, the Congressional beancounters now project smaller deficits due to higher revenues from a stronger economy. As a result, after 2021,deficits are expected to fall significantly and average $1.2 trillion annually.In comparison, the Treasury’s coupon financing capacity looks too big, and according to Zeng's estimates it will generate $2.6 trillion in net issuance in FY2022, $2.2 trillion in FY2023, and $1.8 trillion in FY2024. All else equal, this suggeststhere is room to reduce coupon issuance as soon as this year and by half a trillion or more per year in the first two years.\nSo how should these cuts be allocated?\nAnswering this question, Zeng writes that reducing the issuance of short maturities has the benefit of allowing the Treasury to extend the average maturity of its debt and reduce future rollover risk. But cutting the long-end may be needed to address liquidity issues that have arisen with last year’s size increases, particularly in the 20yr sector. Additionally, large cuts to the long-end could also have market implications. Depending on the amount the Treasury ultimately decides, the DB strategists concludes that cuts could be allocated across the curve but skew to the long-end.\nIn any case, while the upcoming refunding is too early for this to happen, the Treasury will send a strong signal if it has these cuts planned for November, which Zeng thinks is realistic.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1786,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/144428072"}