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2021-05-25
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Robert Shiller: "In Real Terms, Home Prices Have Never Been So High"<blockquote>罗伯特·席勒：“实际上，房价从未如此之高”</blockquote>
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My data goes back over 100 years, so this is so","content":"<p>\"In real terms, home prices have never been so high. My data goes back over 100 years, so this is something,\" Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller toldCNBC's \"Trading Nation.\"</p><p><blockquote>“实际上，房价从未如此之高。我的数据可以追溯到 100 多年前，所以这是一件了不起的事情，”诺贝尔经济学奖获得者罗伯特·席勒 (Robert Shiller) 告诉 CNBC 的“贸易国家”。</blockquote></p><p> Shiller is the co-founder of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. He is worried about a housing bubble forming where the \"Wild West\" mentality pushes prices higher. He also is concerned about stocks and cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>席勒是S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller房价指数的联合创始人。他担心“狂野西部”心态会推高房价，导致房地产泡沫形成。他还关注股票和加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> \"I don't think that the whole thing is explained by central bank policy. There is something about the sociology of markets that are happening,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“我不认为整个事情可以用央行政策来解释。市场的社会学正在发生一些事情，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Shiller has noticed that housing starts drive home prices. But last week, despite a shortage of homes and buildable property, home builders are easing production, paralyzed by surging commodity prices.</p><p><blockquote>席勒注意到房屋开工推高了房价。但上周，尽管房屋和可建造房产短缺，但由于大宗商品价格飙升，房屋建筑商正在放松生产。</blockquote></p><p> In April, single-family housing starts plunged 13% compared with March. This was thesharpest downwardmove since last April when the pandemic began. Despite Shiller's euphoric housing bubble warning, the latest data shows an emerging pattern in housing starts that is quite ominous from the past.</p><p><blockquote>4月份，单户住宅开工率较3月份暴跌13%。这是自去年四月疫情开始以来最急剧的下跌。尽管席勒发出了令人欣慰的房地产泡沫警告，但最新数据显示，房地产开工出现了一种新的模式，与过去相比，这种模式相当不祥。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d67a6bf8f65d5a702e3695828be059\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\">However, Shiller points out there's \"a lot of upward momentum in housing markets and prices may not come down in a year.\" He believes the current housing market environment is similar to 2003, five years before the housing market crash in 2008.</p><p><blockquote>然而，席勒指出，“房地产市场有很大的上涨势头，价格可能一年内不会下降。”他认为，当前的房地产市场环境与 2003 年相似，即 2008 年房地产市场崩盘的五年前。</blockquote></p><p> \"If you go out three or five years, I could imagine they'd [prices] be substantially lower than they are now, and maybe that's a good thing,\" he added. \"Not from the standpoint of a homeowner, but it's from the standpoint of a prospective homeowner. It's a good thing. If we have more houses, we're better off.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果你出去三五年，我可以想象他们（价格）会比现在低得多，也许这是一件好事，”他补充道。“不是从房主的角度，而是从准房主的角度。这是好事。如果我们有更多的房子，我们会过得更好。”</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, on an intermediate basis, Glenn Kelman, CEO at Redfin, told Bloomberg last week thathousing prices are set to cool. He said the housing market is in a frenzy, with most houses selling above the asking prices, which has never happened before.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Redfin 首席执行官格伦·凯尔曼 (Glenn Kelman) 上周告诉彭博社，房价将暂时降温。他说，房地产市场正处于疯狂之中，大多数房屋的售价都高于要价，这在以前从未发生过。</blockquote></p><p> After record gains in the first quarter, some home prices may stall.</p><p><blockquote>在第一季度创纪录上涨后，一些房价可能会停滞不前。</blockquote></p><p> According to the National Association of Realtors, nationwide, the median existing-home sales price rose 16.2% in the first quarter to $319,200, a record high in data going back to 1989.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，第一季度成屋销售价格中位数上涨了16.2%，达到319,200美元，创下1989年以来的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> According to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we recently reported that home sales prices in the country's hottest markets had risen by their highest level since 2006. The index showed home prices in 20 major cities are up a shocking 11.10% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>根据凯斯-席勒房价指数，我们最近报告称，该国最热门市场的房屋销售价格已上涨至2006年以来的最高水平。该指数显示，20个主要城市的房价同比上涨了令人震惊的11.10%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11a3971e095dbf2eb81e0db08c3d21dd\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\">But outside the major metro markets,demand was even more robust, translating into the most significant YoY increase in median sales since 2006.</p><p><blockquote>但在主要地铁市场之外，需求更加强劲，导致销售额中位数出现自 2006 年以来最显着的同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433121e4c3f841a1c956c3cdcb75ef50\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\">Kelman warned: \"I think you're going to see a little bit of air come out of the ballon,\" referring to the housing market bubble the Federal Reserve engineered by sending mortgage rates to record lows at the start of the virus pandemic in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>凯尔曼警告说：“我认为你会看到一点点空气从气球里出来”，他指的是美联储在 2020 年病毒大流行开始时将抵押贷款利率推至历史低点而造成的房地产市场泡沫。</blockquote></p><p> Shiller's and Kelman's warning comes as home-buying sentiment has collapsed to its weakest since 1983...</p><p><blockquote>席勒和凯尔曼发出警告之际，购房情绪已跌至 1983 年以来的最低水平……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7946a5a3b070a2eb2748b1e8990bd64c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"261\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Between Shiller and Kelman, both believe housing prices are in a frenzy. However, Kelman's view is that housing prices will cool on an intermediate timeframe, and Shiller is on a multi-year view. The broad consensus is that today's environment is not sustainable. But as we all know, the Fed can sometimes maintain bubbles for quite sometime.</p><p><blockquote>席勒和凯尔曼都认为房价正处于疯狂之中。然而，凯尔曼的观点是，房价会在中间时间框架内降温，而席勒则是多年的观点。广泛的共识是，当今的环境不可持续。但众所周知，美联储有时可以在相当长的一段时间内维持泡沫。</blockquote></p><p> ... and who may deflate today's housing bubble?</p><p><blockquote>...谁可能会让当今的房地产泡沫破灭？</blockquote></p><p> <i>Well, the Fed, of course, who has been hinting abouttaperingof bond purchases.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>当然是美联储，它一直在暗示减少债券购买。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robert Shiller: \"In Real Terms, Home Prices Have Never Been So High\"<blockquote>罗伯特·席勒：“实际上，房价从未如此之高”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobert Shiller: \"In Real Terms, Home Prices Have Never Been So High\"<blockquote>罗伯特·席勒：“实际上，房价从未如此之高”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-25 14:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>\"In real terms, home prices have never been so high. My data goes back over 100 years, so this is something,\" Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller toldCNBC's \"Trading Nation.\"</p><p><blockquote>“实际上，房价从未如此之高。我的数据可以追溯到 100 多年前，所以这是一件了不起的事情，”诺贝尔经济学奖获得者罗伯特·席勒 (Robert Shiller) 告诉 CNBC 的“贸易国家”。</blockquote></p><p> Shiller is the co-founder of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. He is worried about a housing bubble forming where the \"Wild West\" mentality pushes prices higher. He also is concerned about stocks and cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>席勒是S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller房价指数的联合创始人。他担心“狂野西部”心态会推高房价，导致房地产泡沫形成。他还关注股票和加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> \"I don't think that the whole thing is explained by central bank policy. There is something about the sociology of markets that are happening,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“我不认为整个事情可以用央行政策来解释。市场的社会学正在发生一些事情，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Shiller has noticed that housing starts drive home prices. But last week, despite a shortage of homes and buildable property, home builders are easing production, paralyzed by surging commodity prices.</p><p><blockquote>席勒注意到房屋开工推高了房价。但上周，尽管房屋和可建造房产短缺，但由于大宗商品价格飙升，房屋建筑商正在放松生产。</blockquote></p><p> In April, single-family housing starts plunged 13% compared with March. This was thesharpest downwardmove since last April when the pandemic began. Despite Shiller's euphoric housing bubble warning, the latest data shows an emerging pattern in housing starts that is quite ominous from the past.</p><p><blockquote>4月份，单户住宅开工率较3月份暴跌13%。这是自去年四月疫情开始以来最急剧的下跌。尽管席勒发出了令人欣慰的房地产泡沫警告，但最新数据显示，房地产开工出现了一种新的模式，与过去相比，这种模式相当不祥。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d67a6bf8f65d5a702e3695828be059\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\">However, Shiller points out there's \"a lot of upward momentum in housing markets and prices may not come down in a year.\" He believes the current housing market environment is similar to 2003, five years before the housing market crash in 2008.</p><p><blockquote>然而，席勒指出，“房地产市场有很大的上涨势头，价格可能一年内不会下降。”他认为，当前的房地产市场环境与 2003 年相似，即 2008 年房地产市场崩盘的五年前。</blockquote></p><p> \"If you go out three or five years, I could imagine they'd [prices] be substantially lower than they are now, and maybe that's a good thing,\" he added. \"Not from the standpoint of a homeowner, but it's from the standpoint of a prospective homeowner. It's a good thing. If we have more houses, we're better off.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果你出去三五年，我可以想象他们（价格）会比现在低得多，也许这是一件好事，”他补充道。“不是从房主的角度，而是从准房主的角度。这是好事。如果我们有更多的房子，我们会过得更好。”</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, on an intermediate basis, Glenn Kelman, CEO at Redfin, told Bloomberg last week thathousing prices are set to cool. He said the housing market is in a frenzy, with most houses selling above the asking prices, which has never happened before.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Redfin 首席执行官格伦·凯尔曼 (Glenn Kelman) 上周告诉彭博社，房价将暂时降温。他说，房地产市场正处于疯狂之中，大多数房屋的售价都高于要价，这在以前从未发生过。</blockquote></p><p> After record gains in the first quarter, some home prices may stall.</p><p><blockquote>在第一季度创纪录上涨后，一些房价可能会停滞不前。</blockquote></p><p> According to the National Association of Realtors, nationwide, the median existing-home sales price rose 16.2% in the first quarter to $319,200, a record high in data going back to 1989.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，第一季度成屋销售价格中位数上涨了16.2%，达到319,200美元，创下1989年以来的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> According to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we recently reported that home sales prices in the country's hottest markets had risen by their highest level since 2006. The index showed home prices in 20 major cities are up a shocking 11.10% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>根据凯斯-席勒房价指数，我们最近报告称，该国最热门市场的房屋销售价格已上涨至2006年以来的最高水平。该指数显示，20个主要城市的房价同比上涨了令人震惊的11.10%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11a3971e095dbf2eb81e0db08c3d21dd\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\">But outside the major metro markets,demand was even more robust, translating into the most significant YoY increase in median sales since 2006.</p><p><blockquote>但在主要地铁市场之外，需求更加强劲，导致销售额中位数出现自 2006 年以来最显着的同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433121e4c3f841a1c956c3cdcb75ef50\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\">Kelman warned: \"I think you're going to see a little bit of air come out of the ballon,\" referring to the housing market bubble the Federal Reserve engineered by sending mortgage rates to record lows at the start of the virus pandemic in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>凯尔曼警告说：“我认为你会看到一点点空气从气球里出来”，他指的是美联储在 2020 年病毒大流行开始时将抵押贷款利率推至历史低点而造成的房地产市场泡沫。</blockquote></p><p> Shiller's and Kelman's warning comes as home-buying sentiment has collapsed to its weakest since 1983...</p><p><blockquote>席勒和凯尔曼发出警告之际，购房情绪已跌至 1983 年以来的最低水平……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7946a5a3b070a2eb2748b1e8990bd64c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"261\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Between Shiller and Kelman, both believe housing prices are in a frenzy. However, Kelman's view is that housing prices will cool on an intermediate timeframe, and Shiller is on a multi-year view. The broad consensus is that today's environment is not sustainable. But as we all know, the Fed can sometimes maintain bubbles for quite sometime.</p><p><blockquote>席勒和凯尔曼都认为房价正处于疯狂之中。然而，凯尔曼的观点是，房价会在中间时间框架内降温，而席勒则是多年的观点。广泛的共识是，当今的环境不可持续。但众所周知，美联储有时可以在相当长的一段时间内维持泡沫。</blockquote></p><p> ... and who may deflate today's housing bubble?</p><p><blockquote>...谁可能会让当今的房地产泡沫破灭？</blockquote></p><p> <i>Well, the Fed, of course, who has been hinting abouttaperingof bond purchases.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>当然是美联储，它一直在暗示减少债券购买。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/robert-shiller-real-terms-home-prices-have-never-been-so-high\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/robert-shiller-real-terms-home-prices-have-never-been-so-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175412440","content_text":"\"In real terms, home prices have never been so high. My data goes back over 100 years, so this is something,\" Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller toldCNBC's \"Trading Nation.\"\nShiller is the co-founder of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. He is worried about a housing bubble forming where the \"Wild West\" mentality pushes prices higher. He also is concerned about stocks and cryptocurrencies.\n\"I don't think that the whole thing is explained by central bank policy. There is something about the sociology of markets that are happening,\" he said.\nShiller has noticed that housing starts drive home prices. But last week, despite a shortage of homes and buildable property, home builders are easing production, paralyzed by surging commodity prices.\nIn April, single-family housing starts plunged 13% compared with March. This was thesharpest downwardmove since last April when the pandemic began. Despite Shiller's euphoric housing bubble warning, the latest data shows an emerging pattern in housing starts that is quite ominous from the past.\nHowever, Shiller points out there's \"a lot of upward momentum in housing markets and prices may not come down in a year.\" He believes the current housing market environment is similar to 2003, five years before the housing market crash in 2008.\n\"If you go out three or five years, I could imagine they'd [prices] be substantially lower than they are now, and maybe that's a good thing,\" he added. \"Not from the standpoint of a homeowner, but it's from the standpoint of a prospective homeowner. It's a good thing. If we have more houses, we're better off.\"\nMeanwhile, on an intermediate basis, Glenn Kelman, CEO at Redfin, told Bloomberg last week thathousing prices are set to cool. He said the housing market is in a frenzy, with most houses selling above the asking prices, which has never happened before.\nAfter record gains in the first quarter, some home prices may stall.\nAccording to the National Association of Realtors, nationwide, the median existing-home sales price rose 16.2% in the first quarter to $319,200, a record high in data going back to 1989.\nAccording to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we recently reported that home sales prices in the country's hottest markets had risen by their highest level since 2006. The index showed home prices in 20 major cities are up a shocking 11.10% year-over-year.\nBut outside the major metro markets,demand was even more robust, translating into the most significant YoY increase in median sales since 2006.\nKelman warned: \"I think you're going to see a little bit of air come out of the ballon,\" referring to the housing market bubble the Federal Reserve engineered by sending mortgage rates to record lows at the start of the virus pandemic in 2020.\nShiller's and Kelman's warning comes as home-buying sentiment has collapsed to its weakest since 1983...\n\nBetween Shiller and Kelman, both believe housing prices are in a frenzy. However, Kelman's view is that housing prices will cool on an intermediate timeframe, and Shiller is on a multi-year view. The broad consensus is that today's environment is not sustainable. But as we all know, the Fed can sometimes maintain bubbles for quite sometime.\n... and who may deflate today's housing bubble?\nWell, the Fed, of course, who has been hinting abouttaperingof bond purchases.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":895,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/138831052"}
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