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2021-05-28

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Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move<blockquote>观点：随着标普500接近历史高点，做好暴力行动的准备</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":135545747,"tweetId":"135545747","gmtCreate":1622172585289,"gmtModify":1634183145240,"author":{"id":3584409189861115,"idStr":"3584409189861115","authorId":3584409189861115,"authorIdStr":"3584409189861115","name":"HiDaya","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb87d9a1b7333340c5c703cd08909596","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>....</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>....</body></html>","text":"....","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135545747","repostId":1181071519,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move<blockquote>观点：随着标普500接近历史高点，做好暴力行动的准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":" Here’s how to trade the stock market. The S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.<blockquote>以下是如何交易股票市场。标普500指数一直在两次测试的支撑位 4060 和历史高点 4238 之间波动。当它接近该区间的顶部时，可能会出现波动：要么它会突破历史新高，这肯定会引发一些强劲的后续买入，要么它会在交易区间的顶部失败并走低再次测试区间的底部。</blockquote> Either move is likely to be swift.<blockquote>这两个举动都可能很快。</blockquote> Let’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.<blockquote>让我们回顾一下这些指标，然后我们就可以判断该理论采用什么策略。</blockquote> As noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.<blockquote>如前所述，S&amp;PSPX,+0.12% 的阻力位在 4238（历史高点），双重测试支撑位在 4060。在此之下，另一个支撑位存在于 4000，然后最后的支撑位是 3870。</blockquote> A breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.<blockquote>跌破 3870 点将极大地改变情况——使 SPX 明显看跌，并且很可能意味着我们已经进入了熊市。但这与目前的水平相去甚远。此外，麦克米伦波动率波段（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。其目标是 -4σ “修正布林带”，目前位于 4020 并横向移动。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于卖出信号，尽管随着SPX接近历史高点，看涨期权的大量买入似乎又开始了。只要这些比率上升，卖出信号就会保持不变。我们用来分析这些图表的计算机程序一致认为，这些比率仍然处于卖出信号上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.<blockquote>宽度一直在来回跳跃。5 月中旬发出了 breadth 买入信号，但 breadth 在反弹期间并没有人们所希望的那么强劲。因此，如果宽度连续两天出现负值，这些宽度振荡指标（尽管仍处于买入信号）很容易迅速反转为卖出信号。</blockquote> On a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.<blockquote>不过，从更积极的方面来看，在这次反弹中出现了一些内部力量，累计宽度指标正在改善。其实，丙累积体积宽度（CVB）刚刚创下历史新高。</blockquote> Subscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).<blockquote>订阅者可能还记得，这是我们可以从累积指标中获得的少数预测信息之一，它预示着 SPX 将创下历史新高。这一唯一指标的记录非常好，因为在我们跟踪它的 21 年里，它从未出错（公平地说，2000 年的指标和 2013 年的指标之间没有任何信号）。</blockquote> New 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.<blockquote>52周新高继续超过52周新低。这是看涨的。然而，新高的数量不再像以前那样扩大。无论如何，只要新高超过新低，这仍将是一个积极的指标。</blockquote> Volatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.<blockquote>波动性仍然是看好股票前景的一个分析领域。首先，VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。二是VIXVIX的走势，-3.57%再次明显走低。VIX 均低于 200 天和 20 天移动平均线。这是一个轻微的变化，因为有一个小的上升趋势发展；现在不再是这样了。</blockquote> Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的结构仍然是积极的，因为 VIX 期货 VX00,-4.61% 的交易价格高于 VIX，并且其期限结构向上倾斜。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数期限结构也向上倾斜。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.<blockquote>总之，SPX 仍在区间内交易，因此我们正在交易确认的买入信号和卖出信号。突破4238点（即突破历史新高）肯定是非常积极的，但这并不能保证。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPY straddle buy<blockquote>新推荐：SPDR标普500指数ETF跨式买入</blockquote> For now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.<blockquote>目前，SPX仍在4060至4238之间的交易区间内。交易区间的一种方法是在区间顶部附近卖出（做空），在区间底部附近做多，如果任一方向出现突破，则反转您的头寸。根据该策略，人们现在会购买看跌期权，SPX 接近该区间的顶部。</blockquote> However, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.<blockquote>然而，正如我们在上面的分析中看到的，目前有积极和消极的指标，其中较强的指标之一是CVB买入信号。考虑到这一点，人们会买入评级，期待SPX最终突破新高。再加上波动性 (VIX) 接近低点这一事实，跨式购买似乎是利用所有这些因素的策略。</blockquote> Buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call<blockquote>购买 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）现金支付看涨期权</blockquote> And buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put<blockquote>并购买 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）平价看跌期权</blockquote> Currently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.<blockquote>目前，这种平价跨式交易的成本约为 17 点，即 1,700 美元。那么，如果SPDR标普500指数ETF股价比惊人价格上涨 17 点或比惊人价格下跌 17 点，它就会赚钱。</blockquote> New recommendation: Cerner<blockquote>新推荐：Cerner</blockquote> Vague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.<blockquote>过去两天，CernerCERN 出现了模糊的收购传闻，-0.94%。期权交易量通常是这段时间的三倍。股票成交量模式相当强劲，76-77区域对股票有支撑。</blockquote> Buy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls<blockquote>购买 4 CERN 6 月 (18) 80 评级</blockquote> At a price of 2.00 or less.<blockquote>以2.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> CERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered<blockquote>欧洲核子研究中心：79.03 6 月（18 日）80 看涨期权：1.95 提供</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.<blockquote>龙8 FXY 6月（18日）87评级：现在卖出这些评级，因为看跌看涨期权比率买入信号不再存在。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月（第 11 日）410 看跌期权和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月（第 11 日）385 看跌期权：这笔交易是因为 5 月 12 日 SPX 下跌至 4105 时出现了 MVB 卖出信号。它将被SPX再次收于+4σ波段上方阻止。实际上，在这一点上，我们正在不停地坚持。如果SPX在-4σ区间交易，它将达到其利润目标。目前，下轨位于 4020 附近，并横向移动。如果 SPX 随时交易价格为 4000，则卖出该头寸的一半。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:<blockquote>多头 1 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF·梅 (28) 416 看跌期权和空头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF·梅 (28) 396 看跌期权：该建议是基于现有的纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号。只要纯股票看跌看涨期权比率处于卖出信号，我们就会维持这一建议。因此，我们将每周更新状态。由于价差即将到期，请出售当前价差并用以下内容替换：</blockquote> Buy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put<blockquote>购买 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月（18 日）实值看跌期权</blockquote> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.<blockquote>并以惊人的低20点的价格卖出1个SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）看跌期权。</blockquote> For now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.<blockquote>现在，不要停下来。将位置向下滚动，每边20击，如果SPDR标普500指数ETF贸易随时在较低的打击。</blockquote> Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.<blockquote>龙3杜克6月（18日）100评级：在我们等待激进投资者产生积极结果的同时，不要停止持有。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月（18 日）415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月（18 日）428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），它将被停止。</blockquote> Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”<blockquote>龙1 KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：堪萨斯城南方KSU,+0.81%已正式接受加拿大国家铁路CNI,+2.82%的更高收购要约。CNI股价小幅下跌，但该交易仍价值315美元。交易价格为 200 美元现金 + 1.129 股 CNI 股票。当然，也存在监管延迟。然而，交易价差扩大，期权价格下跌，这似乎有些矫枉过正。5 月 14 日首次提出更高出价时，加拿大国民的交易价格是 107，现在是 104，差别不大。我们将观望，看看这种利差是否会有所收紧。目前尚不清楚另一家竞标者加拿大太平洋铁路公司（Canadian Pacific RailwayCP，-1.10%）是否会提出更高的报价。期权市场似乎在说 “不”。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move<blockquote>观点：随着标普500接近历史高点，做好暴力行动的准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move<blockquote>观点：随着标普500接近历史高点，做好暴力行动的准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-05-28 11:24\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Here’s how to trade the stock market. The S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.<blockquote>以下是如何交易股票市场。标普500指数一直在两次测试的支撑位 4060 和历史高点 4238 之间波动。当它接近该区间的顶部时，可能会出现波动：要么它会突破历史新高，这肯定会引发一些强劲的后续买入，要么它会在交易区间的顶部失败并走低再次测试区间的底部。</blockquote> Either move is likely to be swift.<blockquote>这两个举动都可能很快。</blockquote> Let’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.<blockquote>让我们回顾一下这些指标，然后我们就可以判断该理论采用什么策略。</blockquote> As noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.<blockquote>如前所述，S&amp;PSPX,+0.12% 的阻力位在 4238（历史高点），双重测试支撑位在 4060。在此之下，另一个支撑位存在于 4000，然后最后的支撑位是 3870。</blockquote> A breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.<blockquote>跌破 3870 点将极大地改变情况——使 SPX 明显看跌，并且很可能意味着我们已经进入了熊市。但这与目前的水平相去甚远。此外，麦克米伦波动率波段（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。其目标是 -4σ “修正布林带”，目前位于 4020 并横向移动。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权与看涨期权比率仍处于卖出信号，尽管随着SPX接近历史高点，看涨期权的大量买入似乎又开始了。只要这些比率上升，卖出信号就会保持不变。我们用来分析这些图表的计算机程序一致认为，这些比率仍然处于卖出信号上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.<blockquote>宽度一直在来回跳跃。5 月中旬发出了 breadth 买入信号，但 breadth 在反弹期间并没有人们所希望的那么强劲。因此，如果宽度连续两天出现负值，这些宽度振荡指标（尽管仍处于买入信号）很容易迅速反转为卖出信号。</blockquote> On a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.<blockquote>不过，从更积极的方面来看，在这次反弹中出现了一些内部力量，累计宽度指标正在改善。其实，丙累积体积宽度（CVB）刚刚创下历史新高。</blockquote> Subscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).<blockquote>订阅者可能还记得，这是我们可以从累积指标中获得的少数预测信息之一，它预示着 SPX 将创下历史新高。这一唯一指标的记录非常好，因为在我们跟踪它的 21 年里，它从未出错（公平地说，2000 年的指标和 2013 年的指标之间没有任何信号）。</blockquote> New 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.<blockquote>52周新高继续超过52周新低。这是看涨的。然而，新高的数量不再像以前那样扩大。无论如何，只要新高超过新低，这仍将是一个积极的指标。</blockquote> Volatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.<blockquote>波动性仍然是看好股票前景的一个分析领域。首先，VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号仍然有效。二是VIXVIX的走势，-3.57%再次明显走低。VIX 均低于 200 天和 20 天移动平均线。这是一个轻微的变化，因为有一个小的上升趋势发展；现在不再是这样了。</blockquote> Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的结构仍然是积极的，因为 VIX 期货 VX00,-4.61% 的交易价格高于 VIX，并且其期限结构向上倾斜。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数期限结构也向上倾斜。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.<blockquote>总之，SPX 仍在区间内交易，因此我们正在交易确认的买入信号和卖出信号。突破4238点（即突破历史新高）肯定是非常积极的，但这并不能保证。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPY straddle buy<blockquote>新推荐：SPDR标普500指数ETF跨式买入</blockquote> For now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.<blockquote>目前，SPX仍在4060至4238之间的交易区间内。交易区间的一种方法是在区间顶部附近卖出（做空），在区间底部附近做多，如果任一方向出现突破，则反转您的头寸。根据该策略，人们现在会购买看跌期权，SPX 接近该区间的顶部。</blockquote> However, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.<blockquote>然而，正如我们在上面的分析中看到的，目前有积极和消极的指标，其中较强的指标之一是CVB买入信号。考虑到这一点，人们会买入评级，期待SPX最终突破新高。再加上波动性 (VIX) 接近低点这一事实，跨式购买似乎是利用所有这些因素的策略。</blockquote> Buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call<blockquote>购买 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）现金支付看涨期权</blockquote> And buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put<blockquote>并购买 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）平价看跌期权</blockquote> Currently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.<blockquote>目前，这种平价跨式交易的成本约为 17 点，即 1,700 美元。那么，如果SPDR标普500指数ETF股价比惊人价格上涨 17 点或比惊人价格下跌 17 点，它就会赚钱。</blockquote> New recommendation: Cerner<blockquote>新推荐：Cerner</blockquote> Vague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.<blockquote>过去两天，CernerCERN 出现了模糊的收购传闻，-0.94%。期权交易量通常是这段时间的三倍。股票成交量模式相当强劲，76-77区域对股票有支撑。</blockquote> Buy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls<blockquote>购买 4 CERN 6 月 (18) 80 评级</blockquote> At a price of 2.00 or less.<blockquote>以2.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> CERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered<blockquote>欧洲核子研究中心：79.03 6 月（18 日）80 看涨期权：1.95 提供</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\">Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.<blockquote>龙8 FXY 6月（18日）87评级：现在卖出这些评级，因为看跌看涨期权比率买入信号不再存在。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月（第 11 日）410 看跌期权和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月（第 11 日）385 看跌期权：这笔交易是因为 5 月 12 日 SPX 下跌至 4105 时出现了 MVB 卖出信号。它将被SPX再次收于+4σ波段上方阻止。实际上，在这一点上，我们正在不停地坚持。如果SPX在-4σ区间交易，它将达到其利润目标。目前，下轨位于 4020 附近，并横向移动。如果 SPX 随时交易价格为 4000，则卖出该头寸的一半。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:<blockquote>多头 1 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF·梅 (28) 416 看跌期权和空头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF·梅 (28) 396 看跌期权：该建议是基于现有的纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号。只要纯股票看跌看涨期权比率处于卖出信号，我们就会维持这一建议。因此，我们将每周更新状态。由于价差即将到期，请出售当前价差并用以下内容替换：</blockquote> Buy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put<blockquote>购买 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月（18 日）实值看跌期权</blockquote> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.<blockquote>并以惊人的低20点的价格卖出1个SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）看跌期权。</blockquote> For now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.<blockquote>现在，不要停下来。将位置向下滚动，每边20击，如果SPDR标普500指数ETF贸易随时在较低的打击。</blockquote> Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.<blockquote>龙3杜克6月（18日）100评级：在我们等待激进投资者产生积极结果的同时，不要停止持有。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月（18 日）415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月（18 日）428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），它将被停止。</blockquote> Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”<blockquote>龙1 KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：堪萨斯城南方KSU,+0.81%已正式接受加拿大国家铁路CNI,+2.82%的更高收购要约。CNI股价小幅下跌，但该交易仍价值315美元。交易价格为 200 美元现金 + 1.129 股 CNI 股票。当然，也存在监管延迟。然而，交易价差扩大，期权价格下跌，这似乎有些矫枉过正。5 月 14 日首次提出更高出价时，加拿大国民的交易价格是 107，现在是 104，差别不大。我们将观望，看看这种利差是否会有所收紧。目前尚不清楚另一家竞标者加拿大太平洋铁路公司（Canadian Pacific RailwayCP，-1.10%）是否会提出更高的报价。期权市场似乎在说 “不”。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2417,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/135545747"}