Hopefully better after May_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-05-24

Hopefully better after May

Goldman Lists The Three "Gray Rhinos" Haunting The Market<blockquote>高盛列出了困扰市场的三只“灰犀牛”</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":133720559,"tweetId":"133720559","gmtCreate":1621812661171,"gmtModify":1634186510994,"author":{"id":3553731454353837,"idStr":"3553731454353837","authorId":3553731454353837,"authorIdStr":"3553731454353837","name":"CMPek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/468425562736f96d38e968e1b2419132","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Hopefully better after May</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Hopefully better after May</body></html>","text":"Hopefully better after May","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133720559","repostId":1194389335,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194389335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621812090,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194389335?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-24 07:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Lists The Three \"Gray Rhinos\" Haunting The Market<blockquote>高盛列出了困扰市场的三只“灰犀牛”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194389335","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Confirming that \"selling in May\" is there for a reason, virtually every bank has turned cautious if ","content":"Confirming that \"selling in May\" is there for a reason, virtually every bank has turned cautious if not outright downbeat on the market following a blockbuster earnings season when despite record earnings beats, the S&amp;P is down compared to where it was a month ago. So now that Wall Street is back to its favorite activity of \"explaining\" events after the fact, here is Goldman strategist Chris Hussey listing the three key \"grey rhino\" events the market is grappling with.<blockquote>证实“五月抛售”是有原因的，在经历了一个轰动一时的财报季之后，几乎每家银行都对市场变得谨慎（如果不是彻底悲观的话），尽管盈利超出创纪录水平，但标准普尔指数与一个月前相比仍有所下跌。因此，现在华尔街又回到了它最喜欢的事后“解释”事件的活动中，高盛策略师克里斯·赫西列出了市场正在努力应对的三个关键“灰犀牛”事件。</blockquote> As Hussey writes in the \"end of week\" market intel note, \"gray rhino\" risks have proliferated around markets this week, helping to sustain the tepid return range that the S&amp;P 500 has been stuck in all of May (now down 0.2% mtd). Incidentally, for those unaware, Gray rhinos - not to be confused with black swans - refer to black swan type of events (bad things) but ones that we know about but still don’t do anything about (similar, perhaps to the 800 lb gorilla in the room). Some have referred, for example, to the COVID-19 pandemic as a Gray Rhino event (especially now that the lab escape hypothesis is once again all the rage).<blockquote>正如赫西在英特尔“周末”市场报告中所写，“灰犀牛”风险本周在市场上激增，有助于维持标普500整个5月份一直陷入的不温不火的回报区间（目前下跌0.2%mtd）。顺便说一句，对于那些不知道的人来说，灰犀牛——不要与黑天鹅混淆——指的是黑天鹅类型的事件（坏事），但我们知道但仍然没有做任何事情（类似于房间里800磅的大猩猩）。例如，一些人将新冠肺炎疫情称为灰犀牛事件（尤其是现在实验室逃逸假说再次风靡一时）。</blockquote> In any case, according to Goldman, among the gray rhino events markets are grappling with this week include:<blockquote>无论如何，高盛表示，本周市场正在努力应对的灰犀牛事件包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The run-up in commodity prices, including cryptocurrencies.Copper is downn3%+ for the week, iron ore down 1%, and front month oil futures are down~3%.&nbsp; Additionally, some cryptocurrencies are down as much as 50% for the week.</li> <li>Inflation.Last week’s CPI and PPI releases continue to garner attention. And at Goldman's Global Staples Forum this week, participating CPG companies called out inflation headwinds that are likely to only grow stronger</li> <li>S&amp;P 500 valuations.The S&amp;P 500 continues to trade near a P/E of 22X — very high by historical standards and a valuation level that is unlikely to expand from here even as earnings climb higher writes chief strategist David Kostin.</li> </ul> When one thinks about what can be done to cut these gray rhino’s off at the pass, Goldman notes that there are some developments. China has already started to introduce regulations aimed at curbing excessive speculation and asset prices as Hui Shan addresses in “China’s digital economy.”&nbsp; And the Fed, of course, is positioned to step in with tighter monetary policy to curb a sustained increase in inflation expectations should it develop — although Goldman's David Mericle does not believe that the current \"temporary\" spike in inflation is likely to cause the Fed to act. Here is Goldman's chart of the week for an illustration of when the bank sees inflation peaking.<blockquote><ul><li>包括加密货币在内的大宗商品价格上涨。铜本周下跌3%以上，铁矿石下跌1%，近月石油期货下跌约3%。此外，一些加密货币本周跌幅高达50%。</li><li>通货膨胀。上周公布的CPI和PPI继续受到关注。在高盛本周的全球主食论坛上，与会的CPG公司呼吁通胀阻力可能只会变得更强</li><li>标普500估值。首席策略师David Kostin写道，标普500的市盈率继续接近22倍——按照历史标准来看非常高，即使盈利攀升，估值水平也不太可能从这里扩大。</li></ul>当人们思考如何在山口切断这些灰犀牛时，戈德曼指出，有一些进展。正如惠山在《中国数字经济》中所说，中国已经开始出台旨在抑制过度投机和资产价格的法规。当然，美联储有能力采取更紧缩的货币政策，以遏制通胀预期的持续上升——尽管高盛的大卫·梅里克尔不认为当前的“暂时”通胀飙升可能会导致美联储采取行动。以下是高盛本周的图表，说明该行预计通胀何时见顶。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93a28e3cebcfd4e86293254325b1be08\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"509\">As for the market’s ‘high’ valuation, Goldman's strategist suggests that perhaps this week’s trading action is a sign that investors are willing to address this gray rhino by being a bit more selective even on the back of extremely strong earnings growth.<blockquote>至于市场的“高”估值，高盛策略师表示，也许本周的交易行动表明，即使在盈利增长极其强劲的背景下，投资者也愿意通过更加选择性的方式来应对这头灰犀牛。</blockquote> Interestingly, investors do not appear to be as shaken by the market concentration we have been experiencing for quite some time. The FAAMG complex is performing in-line with the broader S&amp;P 5000 index on average this week — in other words, the market remains as concentrated as it was to start the week, something we noted on Friday when we highlighted how 4 of the 5 FAAMG stocks are also among the 5 most widely owned hedge fund stocks.<blockquote>有趣的是，投资者似乎并没有被我们已经经历了相当长一段时间的市场集中度所动摇。FAAMG综合指数本周的平均表现与更广泛的标准普尔5000指数一致——换句话说，市场仍然像本周初一样集中，这是我们在周五强调5只FAAMG股票中的4只股票也是持有最广泛的5只对冲基金股票之一。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa378c1bad29267ec23c5ac267488e37\" tg-width=\"1187\" tg-height=\"692\"><blockquote></blockquote> The one non-FAAMG stock in the HF top-5? BABA.The one FAAMG stock that is not in the HF top-5? AAPL.<blockquote>HF前5名中的一只非FAAMG股票？爸爸。一只FAAMG股票不在HF前5名中？苹果公司。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Lists The Three \"Gray Rhinos\" Haunting The Market<blockquote>高盛列出了困扰市场的三只“灰犀牛”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Lists The Three \"Gray Rhinos\" Haunting The Market<blockquote>高盛列出了困扰市场的三只“灰犀牛”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-05-24 07:21\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nConfirming that \"selling in May\" is there for a reason, virtually every bank has turned cautious if not outright downbeat on the market following a blockbuster earnings season when despite record earnings beats, the S&amp;P is down compared to where it was a month ago. So now that Wall Street is back to its favorite activity of \"explaining\" events after the fact, here is Goldman strategist Chris Hussey listing the three key \"grey rhino\" events the market is grappling with.<blockquote>证实“五月抛售”是有原因的，在经历了一个轰动一时的财报季之后，几乎每家银行都对市场变得谨慎（如果不是彻底悲观的话），尽管盈利超出创纪录水平，但标准普尔指数与一个月前相比仍有所下跌。因此，现在华尔街又回到了它最喜欢的事后“解释”事件的活动中，高盛策略师克里斯·赫西列出了市场正在努力应对的三个关键“灰犀牛”事件。</blockquote> As Hussey writes in the \"end of week\" market intel note, \"gray rhino\" risks have proliferated around markets this week, helping to sustain the tepid return range that the S&amp;P 500 has been stuck in all of May (now down 0.2% mtd). Incidentally, for those unaware, Gray rhinos - not to be confused with black swans - refer to black swan type of events (bad things) but ones that we know about but still don’t do anything about (similar, perhaps to the 800 lb gorilla in the room). Some have referred, for example, to the COVID-19 pandemic as a Gray Rhino event (especially now that the lab escape hypothesis is once again all the rage).<blockquote>正如赫西在英特尔“周末”市场报告中所写，“灰犀牛”风险本周在市场上激增，有助于维持标普500整个5月份一直陷入的不温不火的回报区间（目前下跌0.2%mtd）。顺便说一句，对于那些不知道的人来说，灰犀牛——不要与黑天鹅混淆——指的是黑天鹅类型的事件（坏事），但我们知道但仍然没有做任何事情（类似于房间里800磅的大猩猩）。例如，一些人将新冠肺炎疫情称为灰犀牛事件（尤其是现在实验室逃逸假说再次风靡一时）。</blockquote> In any case, according to Goldman, among the gray rhino events markets are grappling with this week include:<blockquote>无论如何，高盛表示，本周市场正在努力应对的灰犀牛事件包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The run-up in commodity prices, including cryptocurrencies.Copper is downn3%+ for the week, iron ore down 1%, and front month oil futures are down~3%.&nbsp; Additionally, some cryptocurrencies are down as much as 50% for the week.</li> <li>Inflation.Last week’s CPI and PPI releases continue to garner attention. And at Goldman's Global Staples Forum this week, participating CPG companies called out inflation headwinds that are likely to only grow stronger</li> <li>S&amp;P 500 valuations.The S&amp;P 500 continues to trade near a P/E of 22X — very high by historical standards and a valuation level that is unlikely to expand from here even as earnings climb higher writes chief strategist David Kostin.</li> </ul> When one thinks about what can be done to cut these gray rhino’s off at the pass, Goldman notes that there are some developments. China has already started to introduce regulations aimed at curbing excessive speculation and asset prices as Hui Shan addresses in “China’s digital economy.”&nbsp; And the Fed, of course, is positioned to step in with tighter monetary policy to curb a sustained increase in inflation expectations should it develop — although Goldman's David Mericle does not believe that the current \"temporary\" spike in inflation is likely to cause the Fed to act. Here is Goldman's chart of the week for an illustration of when the bank sees inflation peaking.<blockquote><ul><li>包括加密货币在内的大宗商品价格上涨。铜本周下跌3%以上，铁矿石下跌1%，近月石油期货下跌约3%。此外，一些加密货币本周跌幅高达50%。</li><li>通货膨胀。上周公布的CPI和PPI继续受到关注。在高盛本周的全球主食论坛上，与会的CPG公司呼吁通胀阻力可能只会变得更强</li><li>标普500估值。首席策略师David Kostin写道，标普500的市盈率继续接近22倍——按照历史标准来看非常高，即使盈利攀升，估值水平也不太可能从这里扩大。</li></ul>当人们思考如何在山口切断这些灰犀牛时，戈德曼指出，有一些进展。正如惠山在《中国数字经济》中所说，中国已经开始出台旨在抑制过度投机和资产价格的法规。当然，美联储有能力采取更紧缩的货币政策，以遏制通胀预期的持续上升——尽管高盛的大卫·梅里克尔不认为当前的“暂时”通胀飙升可能会导致美联储采取行动。以下是高盛本周的图表，说明该行预计通胀何时见顶。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93a28e3cebcfd4e86293254325b1be08\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"509\">As for the market’s ‘high’ valuation, Goldman's strategist suggests that perhaps this week’s trading action is a sign that investors are willing to address this gray rhino by being a bit more selective even on the back of extremely strong earnings growth.<blockquote>至于市场的“高”估值，高盛策略师表示，也许本周的交易行动表明，即使在盈利增长极其强劲的背景下，投资者也愿意通过更加选择性的方式来应对这头灰犀牛。</blockquote> Interestingly, investors do not appear to be as shaken by the market concentration we have been experiencing for quite some time. The FAAMG complex is performing in-line with the broader S&amp;P 5000 index on average this week — in other words, the market remains as concentrated as it was to start the week, something we noted on Friday when we highlighted how 4 of the 5 FAAMG stocks are also among the 5 most widely owned hedge fund stocks.<blockquote>有趣的是，投资者似乎并没有被我们已经经历了相当长一段时间的市场集中度所动摇。FAAMG综合指数本周的平均表现与更广泛的标准普尔5000指数一致——换句话说，市场仍然像本周初一样集中，这是我们在周五强调5只FAAMG股票中的4只股票也是持有最广泛的5只对冲基金股票之一。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa378c1bad29267ec23c5ac267488e37\" tg-width=\"1187\" tg-height=\"692\"><blockquote></blockquote> The one non-FAAMG stock in the HF top-5? BABA.The one FAAMG stock that is not in the HF top-5? AAPL.<blockquote>HF前5名中的一只非FAAMG股票？爸爸。一只FAAMG股票不在HF前5名中？苹果公司。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-lists-three-gray-rhinos-haunting-market?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-lists-three-gray-rhinos-haunting-market?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194389335","content_text":"Confirming that \"selling in May\" is there for a reason, virtually every bank has turned cautious if not outright downbeat on the market following a blockbuster earnings season when despite record earnings beats, the S&P is down compared to where it was a month ago. So now that Wall Street is back to its favorite activity of \"explaining\" events after the fact, here is Goldman strategist Chris Hussey listing the three key \"grey rhino\" events the market is grappling with.\nAs Hussey writes in the \"end of week\" market intel note, \"gray rhino\" risks have proliferated around markets this week, helping to sustain the tepid return range that the S&P 500 has been stuck in all of May (now down 0.2% mtd). Incidentally, for those unaware, Gray rhinos - not to be confused with black swans - refer to black swan type of events (bad things) but ones that we know about but still don’t do anything about (similar, perhaps to the 800 lb gorilla in the room). Some have referred, for example, to the COVID-19 pandemic as a Gray Rhino event (especially now that the lab escape hypothesis is once again all the rage).\nIn any case, according to Goldman, among the gray rhino events markets are grappling with this week include:\n\nThe run-up in commodity prices, including cryptocurrencies.Copper is downn3%+ for the week, iron ore down 1%, and front month oil futures are down~3%.  Additionally, some cryptocurrencies are down as much as 50% for the week.\nInflation.Last week’s CPI and PPI releases continue to garner attention. And at Goldman's Global Staples Forum this week, participating CPG companies called out inflation headwinds that are likely to only grow stronger\nS&P 500 valuations.The S&P 500 continues to trade near a P/E of 22X — very high by historical standards and a valuation level that is unlikely to expand from here even as earnings climb higher writes chief strategist David Kostin.\n\nWhen one thinks about what can be done to cut these gray rhino’s off at the pass, Goldman notes that there are some developments. China has already started to introduce regulations aimed at curbing excessive speculation and asset prices as Hui Shan addresses in “China’s digital economy.”  And the Fed, of course, is positioned to step in with tighter monetary policy to curb a sustained increase in inflation expectations should it develop — although Goldman's David Mericle does not believe that the current \"temporary\" spike in inflation is likely to cause the Fed to act. Here is Goldman's chart of the week for an illustration of when the bank sees inflation peaking.\nAs for the market’s ‘high’ valuation, Goldman's strategist suggests that perhaps this week’s trading action is a sign that investors are willing to address this gray rhino by being a bit more selective even on the back of extremely strong earnings growth.\nInterestingly, investors do not appear to be as shaken by the market concentration we have been experiencing for quite some time. The FAAMG complex is performing in-line with the broader S&P 5000 index on average this week — in other words, the market remains as concentrated as it was to start the week, something we noted on Friday when we highlighted how 4 of the 5 FAAMG stocks are also among the 5 most widely owned hedge fund stocks.\n\nThe one non-FAAMG stock in the HF top-5? BABA.The one FAAMG stock that is not in the HF top-5? AAPL.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":244,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":23,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/133720559"}